based on our model
QBR = (0.6007x(temp))+39.778
QBR = (0.6007x(3))+39.778
QBR = 41.58
So, based on the historical data and trends, there is an 8.8 % chance that Eli will have a 41.58 QB Rating on Sunday
Again, because of the low r-squared, that is not deemed to be accurate or statistically significant
to try and figure out what his QB rating will be this week or to see if there is a coorelation between the weather and his QB rating?
and by showing that if you did try to predict using such a statistically insignificant variable, your forecast would be wrong/not make much sense.
my goal was to see if there is a correlation between weather and rating, but to be honest, I don't see a significant trend over 60 games to say for sure. There just aren't enough very cold games for us to be really sure.
However it would be much more useful if one could control for injuries on offense and the caliber of the opposing defenses. Then, if there is any correlation, that should be compared with the correlation for other NFL QBs to see if Eli is more or less effected by weather conditions than other QBs.
given jlukes' work, a significant correlation when controlling for other factors is unlikely.
One thing that I'm interested in. I learned also that you can't extrapolate outside of the range of temperatures that are given. In other words if Eli Manning never played in temeperatures as low as 3 degrees then you can't put that into your equation. Am I misunderstanding it?
stuff, but I do find his charts interesting. QB rating looks to be evenly scattered throughout all temp ranges. Ergo temp is not a major factor.
Wind is another story. In eleven games played where wind was 12mph or above, Eli has only one game with a rating over 80 vs seven games below 60. Many well below.
Now analysts and QB's have been saying for years that wind is the biggest factor affecting the passing game, so I suspect that every QB in the league would show the same trend. However, I also suspect that Eli is more affected than most because it seems to me he has alot of wobble in his passes. That wobble means more surface area exposed to the wind.
Eli has a little 3 or 4 game streak where he has a consistent streak with good to acceptable QB rating. In between he is a whipsaw. We're 3 games into this consistent streak with his highest QB rating group ever. Hopefully he has a 4th in this streak and then breaks out of his trend with a 5th. :-)
no, it doesnt matter what the temperature is. Plug any temperature into that linear equation and you will only have an 8.8% chance of predicting what his QB rating will be at that given temperature
Could you do a regression to take into factor both wind and temp and forecast the rating? I vaguely remember being able to do somthing like that, but don't have my SPSS software with me to do it.
Perhaps a low temp + high winds might show more deterioration for Eli... though I suppose that would hold true for any QB unless he was the abominable snowman
just kidding, i did enjoy them last week but thankfully they can be put away now.
