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Plaxico Burress' Holdout and You: A Numerical Exploration

Will in NJ : 6/11/2008 11:06 pm
I'm sitting at this table called love, staring down this irony called life. How come we reached this fork in the road, and it cuts like a knife?

With regard to Plax's holdout, for a moment put aside your opinions on honoring contracts and refrain from expouding your moral judgments of holding out. It's all irrelevant -- viewing the situation from a numbers standpoint, Plaxico Burress deserves a new contract.

Let's go back to the spring of 2005. St. Patrick's Day to be exact.

In an emphatic stroke of Byzantine whimsy, Burress fired his agent (Michael Harrison), hired the venerable Drew Rosenhaus, and shortly thereafter signed with the Giants: 6 years, $25 million, $8.25 million guaranteed. According to Len Pasquarelli, Burress was set to make $14.6 million in the first three years of the contract.

By comparison, one year earlier Terrell Owens won an arbitration case, was freed from the penetentiary otherwise known as the Baltimore Ravens, and signed with the Eagles: 7 years, $49 million contract with $10 million guaranteed. At the time, Owens was the best receiver in the NFL, and his contract was a useful benchmark in determining Burress' market value.

After the 2005 season, when Burress helped the Giants supplant Owens' Eagles as the preeminent team in the NFC East, the NFL renegotiated the Collective Bargaining Agreement. As consequence, the salary cap increased substantially (and continues to increase), and player contracts followed suit. In other words, the football world went to hell in a handbasket. Fire and brimstone. Small helpless children drowing in pools of money. Adam Archuleta was suddently worth $35 million on an open market, making him the highest paid safety in the history of the league (funnily enough, in researching this post, I followed a link to the Redskins.com story on Archuleta's signing ... and their site was experiencing "technical difficulties"). Cats and dogs living together. Mass hysteria.

While Burress missed the spike in salaries by one season, his contemporary wide receivers were particularly affected by the league-wide spending spree. Since the new CBA's implementation, here's a sample of free agent contracts signed by wide receivers:

- Antwaan Randle El (2006): 7 years, $31 million, $11.5 million in bonuses

- David Givens (2006): 5 years, $24 million, $8 million signing bonus

- Brandon Lloyd (2006): 7 years, $17.5 million, $10 million guaranteed

- Kevin Curtis (2007): 6 years, $32 million, $9.5 million guaranteed

- Wes Welker (2007): 5 years, $18.1 million, $9 million signing bonus

- Bernard Berrian (2008): 6 years, $42 million, $16 million guaranteed

- Donte' Stallworth (2008): 7 years, $35 million, $10 million guaranteed

- Javon Walker (2008): 6 years, $55 million, $16 million guaranteed

*Walker could potentially earn up to $27 million over the first three years on his contract; this is nearly twice as much as Burress earned the past three years.

- Terrell Owens (2008): 4 years, $34 million, $13 million guaranteed

*Owens is an especially interesting parallel. Since signing with the Eagles in 2004, he has continued to drink deep the aura of the game. He is still arguably the best player in his position. And despite advancing into his mid-30s and getting cut by the Eagles for being an all-around jerkoff, his market value has appreciated in light of the new CBA.

______


Which brings us back to Plaxico Burress. Although the timing of his holdout is inopportune, it's difficult to criticize Burress for asking to be paid his proper market value. Extenuating circumstances have made the situation much more complex than "he signed a contract, he should live up to it," and the concepts of economics certainly support his decision.

After the renegotiation of the CBA, Plax's current contract was essentially rendered obsolete. Indeed, it was structured for a market that no longer exists. Meanwhile, the new market has rewarded lesser players at Plax's position, as evidenced by the contracts of the aforementioned individuals. After playing through multiple injuries and delivering a Super Bowl title, Plax deserves to be a beneficiary as well.

Finally, it's worth noting that Burress could have staged a holdout last offseason. After two excellent seasons with the Giants, he very easily could have made case that he had outperformed his contract. But instead he waited until after the team had secured a championship before he intimated that he was underpaid. A season in which he sustained an ankle injury that would have landed most players on injured reserve. A season in which he demonstrated how valuable and irreplaceable he is to this team. And at 30 years of age (he turns 31 in August), he definitely has several prime years left. If Plaxico Burress doesn't deserve a raise, then who does?

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I have reservations regarding investing too much future money  
idinkido : 6/12/2008 6:44 am : link
into Plaxico. Plax was an MVP player last season and is very valuable to any franchise but what effect would a new pact have on signing other players who are the foundation for the future of this franchise? If we can satisfy Snee, Osi,Kiwi, and Jacobs, and still make Plax happy, then that is great. The question is, Can we do that? Making Plax happy will end up with Shockey demanding more money, too. I personally think we made a big mistake not trading Shockey because he is simply not happy being with our team. I do not know what the future will be regarding the cap (or no cap). I would be impressed if our team managemes to hold onto and satisfy the players I mentioned. Two other aspects that must be satisfactory predicted is how long Plax and Jacobs will continue to play relatively healthy and productive. The picks of Manningham, this season, and Smith and Bradshaw, last season, were brilliant and significantly strengthen our team especially with any possible future losses at those positions.
Well done,  
dorgan : 6/12/2008 6:56 am : link
Will.
You're far more than shiny haired, sweater vest wearing, preppie.


That was well written, with solid information and presented concisely.

Which means it is no more even money that 50% of BBI will read it and/or understand your position.


Nice job,  
Homersimpson : 6/12/2008 7:01 am : link
Will. Well said.

I only read every other word of your post, and I still got the gist of it.
Homer  
dorgan : 6/12/2008 7:06 am : link
I didn't read it all, and I got it.
Plax has huge injury question mark  
ZogZerg : 6/12/2008 7:09 am : link
any new deal needs to account for that.
nice post will  
DCPollaro : 6/12/2008 7:18 am : link
was hoping someone took the time to breakdown the contracts from other wr's since plax has signed his deal
Couldn't the same be said  
sphinx : 6/12/2008 8:17 am : link
about every player that signed a contract before the new CBA?
my only problem with the whole thing  
oghwga : 6/12/2008 8:50 am : link
is that i think Plax and the Giants were negotiating nicely and maybe hit a small bump so Rosenhaus runs to the media and makes a stink. In my opinion I think a deal was being done and both Plax and the Giants would have been happier if it had been done quietly and big mouth jumped the gun.
it had to come out sooner or later  
DCPollaro : 6/12/2008 8:52 am : link
it was either plax didnt show up and it gets out that way

or plax shows up (which he did)..doesnt practice.....gets interviewed..and there its out...do you want him to lie and say he was injured and not holding out or something....

they did go about it correctly or you would have heard the holdout a long time ago...
IMO  
gidiefor : Mod : 6/12/2008 9:02 am : link
the current CBA has made a mockery of what the current market value of a player is - so an analysis of salaries granted under that system is useless - the owners are already scrapping the plan because of some of the ridiculous paydays that average to slightly above average players are getting.

Even so Plax is a great player and his salary is very reasonable for the type of player the Giants got - but basing any raise he may deserve on the current CBA is hooey
Excellent post Will  
Ben in Adirondacks : 6/12/2008 9:07 am : link
I would also point out that playing through injuries (and performing at an elite level despite diminished capacity) also build a narrative where the Giants should take care of Plax with a new deal. He has been the Giants legitimate #1 since he got here and as you show, the market has changed substantially.
Good post.  
cosmicj : 6/12/2008 9:07 am : link
One other thing is that Plax has two other teammates (one at his own position: Amani, the other is Pierce) who are making far more than him while contributing much less to the team. Instead of rooting for one side or the other in this contract dispute, I hope that the the front office and Plax have a reasonable negotiation and come to a mutually satisfactory conclusion.
Will  
whobetta : 6/12/2008 9:22 am : link
good post,

that was my biggest "gripe". the fact that we have quite a few other players that need to be signed/extended will leave us VERY tight budget wise after them. with Plax/Osi wanting more money to relatively new contracts it is just frustrating.

He could have easily done what Osi did, which was continue to show up while saying he wants to renegotiate, but allowing the agent to go to the media like a 3 yr old brat is getting a bit tiring.

we all believe Plax deserves more as he has produced beyond expectations.

It also doesn't help that hte CBA allows scrub clowns to command so much money on the open market, inevitably ruining this game. The NFL needs to figure out how it will handle escalating Rookie contracts as well as a system that will possibly prorate old contracts to update them if/when Salary Caps increase...

the way it is working that new salary caps pretty much nullify existing contracts making them look like diddly piss is a diservice to the NFL, its players and fans. and it needs to be fixed somehow.
Awesome research and incite.  
Giants91 : 6/12/2008 9:49 am : link
The difficulty is determining what length and how much Plax is actually worth. On Sirius this morning the conversation was brought up about Plax being one of a group of players (such as Kellen Winslow) who recognize that they have serious debilitating injuries and they need to cash in before those injuries become overly apparent to their respective teams.

Of course Plax deserves a raise and the guy sacrificed his body for this team to be world champs, but football is still a business and we can't just throw money at a guy who, is already 30, and may not have many years left if this ankle is as bad as it seems.

Personally he is my favorite Giant on the current roster but is he someone who should be getting a large 6 year deal? I'd love to tear up his contract and write a new one similar to TO's that has 3 years with an option for 4th, and obviously for less money than that. I just wouldn't be surprised if Plax and Rosenhaus were looking for a 5-6 year deal with a large bonus and front loaded contract in order to allow Plax to earn as much as possible in case that ankle goes. If that is the case, I am not confident in the two sides agreeing soon because I'd be surprised if the front office would agree to a deal that paid him a lot up front and early since his career could be shortened due to injury.
gidiefor  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 10:49 am : link
I don't know if I'd called the increase in salaries a mockery. Here's the shorthand version. Under the new agreement, the salary cap was based on a higher percentage of NFL gross revenue. As the NFL continues to generate more and more revenue, the salary cap rises. With more available money for players, player salaries rise accordingly. Their worth is ultimately determined by the fans that contribute to the league's revenue.

You might have a specfic number in your head that represents what NFL players, in your estimation, should be paid. Fair enough. But realistically their value -- just like workers in other industries -- reflects the market for their skills. In the NFL's case, the market was redefined and players became more expensive. Whether or not the logic behind the market change was fair is immaterial. There's a new financial atmosphere and teams have to conform to some degree, otherwise they won't be able to compete.
Will  
gidiefor : Mod : 6/12/2008 10:56 am : link
it is my belief that the market is not a reflection of true worth - because the scarcity of truly good talent is just not out there and the available cap money to purchase is - and it is being spread around liberally in proportion to the worth that it represents
the market may be overvalued now  
sshin05 : 6/12/2008 12:09 pm : link
but it doesn't mean they should not want a new contract according to the current market. It is not Plax's fault that lesser players made more money in the new market and other stars and superstars have cashed in on the new market. Will in NJ is right, his current contract is obsolete and he needs to be paid with what the current market holds.

I have no problem with him holding out and wanting a new contract. He was there and out in the field during minicamp. He played his heart out this past season, had a terrific post-season, and had 3 really good years as the Giants #1 receiver. Also, he's a lot better than Javon Walker's ridiculous contract.

In my industry, if I knew my salary was not in line with the current market value, I would either demand a new salary or quit and find something better.
gidiefor  
cosmicj : 6/12/2008 12:30 pm : link
to clarify, you don't think the talent available in the vet free agent market is commensurate with the dollars the teams have to spend on these players and hence open-market signings are too high? If I am understanding you right, I agree.

So the logic is that teams are successfully retaining their key players in most cases. My guess is that they are doing so by making contract offers early and that players are (rightly) so nervous about injury that they are accepting the early offers even though the $s are under the market level. And that's why drafting well in today's NFL talent acquisition race is more important than big-time vet FA signings. Ties together nicely.
Excellent writeup  
Jerry in DC : 6/12/2008 12:38 pm : link
You are both hector and helper. Around your circumference lies the true meaning of the game.
Thanks Will  
Bill2 : 6/12/2008 12:42 pm : link
Great Post
Will  
santacruzom : 6/12/2008 12:52 pm : link
I agree somewhat with the logic presented here, but I disagree with the phenomenon of no one else pointing out your Flight of the Conchords reference.
cosmic  
gidiefor : Mod : 6/12/2008 2:48 pm : link
exactly
Thank you, Jerry  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 5:02 pm : link
Seeing you here is not unlike watching Atlantis rise from the sea, the bones of its kings new-covered with flesh.
gidiefor  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 5:33 pm : link
There's no doubt that teams appraise talent at a different price than the market dictates. The competition for scare resources (talent) drives that price up. But there aren't a lot of better alternatives than cooperating with market trends.

The Giants have been shrewd in circumventing those trends signing undervalued free agents (i.e. Kawika Mitchell) to low-risk contracts while focusing their resources on retaining their own players while adding talent through the draft. HOWEVAH, I think they have to bite the bullet with Plax.

What do you propose they do? Hold him to his contract? If that's the case, then there's a solid chance he doesn't play for us ... and he might be the scarcest, most irreplaceable resource on our team. I'd rather "overpay" than lose him altogether.
santacruz  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 5:34 pm : link
It saddens me. Looks like I'm making a lasagna ... for one.
The biggest thing Plax has going for him  
Jerry in DC : 6/12/2008 5:59 pm : link
is that he's the only WR on the roster who transcends the boundary between fury and repose.
Will  
Milton : 6/12/2008 6:10 pm : link
You leave out the exact number that the Giants should give him and that he should be happy with. Isn't that what the negotiation is all about?

Dave Diehl and the Giants were able to agree on a number and he was signed. Plaxico and the Giants have not yeat agreed on a number. Osi and the Giants have not yet agree on a number.

You also fail to mention all the other players on the team who's contracts were rendered obsolete by the new CBA and who played through injuries last year. Or the ones who didn't play through injury but worked their asses off, just the same.

Ahmad Bradshaw was seriously underpaid. So was Steve Smith. And that Kevin Boss guy.
A new CBA...  
Milton : 6/12/2008 6:16 pm : link
...doesn't mean that everyone who is under contract should now get paid as if they were a free agent. The salary cap didn't go up that much that the Giants can suddenly afford to pay everyone as if they were one of the highest paid players at their position.

Or is it your position that they only need to pay the guys who threaten to dishonor their contracts?
Milton  
dibc : 6/12/2008 6:41 pm : link
Actually Osi is under contract and not holding out. Not even discussing things with the Giants. No problem there this year.

You seem to take this contract stuff very personally. I understand where you are coming from. In general, I agree with the complaint that the players look to take advantage when things go well but never offer to give money back when things don't. However, there is such a thing as an unjust or unfair contract. I have a very hard time seeing most multi-million dollar football contracts that way, but such things do exist in the world of contracts.

Fact is that Plax is not breaking any rules as far as I can see. He can't go to another NFL team in the middle of this contract - that would be breaking the rules. But he can hold out if he's willing to lose his paychecks. If he feels that playing football for millions is unfair because a few other lesser players are making more then he's entitled to sit out. And if the Giants were really trying to lowball him I might even be sympathetic. (But I don't believe it to be the case, since they seem to be talking contract.)

The Giants are also entitled to rework a contract. Nothing against the rules there. What it comes down to is that as fans we have no control over the business side of the game. If Plax wants to hold out we can question the wisdom of signing him in the first place. But since we just won a Super Bowl it's hard to complain too much.
And as far as the numbers  
dibc : 6/12/2008 6:45 pm : link
I'd give Plax a modest raise if I were running things, and maybe a little more if it was part of an extension. Probably not near as much as he is looking for. Whether he'd agree to it I don't know. We don't really know what he's looking for. He has little leverage. He is nowhere near FA.
dibc  
Milton : 6/12/2008 6:50 pm : link
That's not really my point. My criticism isn't aimed at Plaxico, but aimed at the fans who are taking his side without knowing the details of the negotiation.

Quote:
“Me and my agent (Drew Rosenhaus) are trying to get this deal done for the future so I can remain a New York Giant and we’re just not happy with the way things are going right now.”


Why do some fans assume that it's Rosenhaus and Plaxico who have an objective view on his value to the team and that it's Mara, Reese, and Abrams who are low-balling him?

As I said in my earlier post, Diehl was reasonable and the Giants were able to give him a raise in a manner that was win-win. People talk about Plaxico's heroic contribution to the team, but Diehl made quite a heroic contribution that was just as indispensible as Plaxico's.
Milt  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 6:53 pm : link
I'm not his agent, so I won't suggest specific terms of a new contract; however, the contracts signed by other receivers this offseason serve as a useful guide for what he would stand to make on an open market.

Bradshaw, Smith, and Boss are inapt counterexamples. They signed rookie contracts that were based upon their draft position. And they also entered the league after the new CBA had already been instituted. You might argue they were underpaid (debatable), but no rookies sign an extension after their first season. Thus, none of them have the same negotiating leverage that Burress does, and they couldn't exactly afford to purposefully sit out practice, either. And while Burress isn't the only player with an outdated deal, his case for getting a new contract is the most convincing.
dibc  
Milton : 6/12/2008 6:53 pm : link
my last post was in response to your first post.

As for Plaxico's demands, I agree with you. My guess is he's asking for Owens-Moss-Walker money with big guarantees.
Milton  
dibc : 6/12/2008 6:57 pm : link
Well, it may be something I'm reading into your posts that isn't actually there. You often seem to be expecting players to hold out with unreasonable demands (Strahan, Osi) and it doesn't always happen.

I completely agree with you on the point you just made. In this particular case it is entirely possible that Reese has been reasonable, and Plax and Rosenhaus not. We really can't know because there haven't even been any leaks yet. (But if numbers did come out reasonable people might disagree on which side was in the right.)
Will...  
Milton : 6/12/2008 6:58 pm : link
But without knowing what his agent is asking for it is impossible to know who is being reasonable and who is being unreasonable. It's not as if the Giants have refused to negotiate a new deal.

...  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 7:03 pm : link
Quote:
A new CBA doesn't mean that everyone who is under contract should now get paid as if they were a free agent. The salary cap didn't go up that much that the Giants can suddenly afford to pay everyone as if they were one of the highest paid players at their position.

Or is it your position that they only need to pay the guys who threaten to dishonor their contracts?


I think a new CBA -- especially one as momentous as this -- implies that any deal signed before the CBA (with the exception of rookie contracts; that is completely separate issue) should be revisited and analyzed the same way I presented Burress' situation.

It's obviously a case by case basis. If Plax threatens to holdout, there's every reason to renegotiate: his value to the team provides him bargaining power, he's demonstrably underpaid, and the team cannot win without him. Whereas if Steve Smith holds out, he can take a hike.
Milton  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 7:06 pm : link
My only point was that Burress deserves to be paid more. The numbers speak for themselves. I certainly have no interest in playing arbitrator.
dibc...  
Milton : 6/12/2008 7:06 pm : link
I was off on the Strahan numbers. I thought the Giants would offer 8M and he would demand 10M, and it appears the Giants offered 6.5M while he was demanding 8M.

And the last several contract, dating back to the ones that Shockey and Osi and Diehl signed years ago, have all been for numbers that were less than I expected. So you are right that I've had inflated views of player demands. The flip-side is that now we have Shockey and Osi wanting more money and Diehl having recently gotten new money.

With some of the outrageous contracts around the league, it's hard to tell what's a reasonable demand, especially for someone under contract for another three or four years.

I find the Osi situation the most curious. He has something up his sleeve. I find it hard to believe he's willing to wait until 2009 for a new deal.
Will...  
Milton : 6/12/2008 7:10 pm : link
On that point I agree with you.

My issue is with the fans who simply say, "Pay the guy." My response is, "Pay him what?"

And I do appreciate the effort you made in detailing his pay history and the market history for his position. But we are all going to have a different idea of what is fair.
Let's also keep in mind  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 7:13 pm : link
that the effect of Plaxico Burress' presence in the Giants offense is the exhilirating tension between being and becoming.

Being and becoming...
The reason I brought up the rookies...  
Milton : 6/12/2008 7:14 pm : link
...isn't because I think they deserve pay raises. It's because the salary structure doesn't pretend to pay the talent based on contribution alone. If it was just about paying the guys based on their contibution to the championship, these are the guys who were most underpaid.
My understanding  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 7:22 pm : link
was that team paid players according to expected performance, and those payments are guided by the player market. Past contributions are relevant in the sense that they lend some insight into future performance. Would you agree with that?
Will...  
rnargi : 6/12/2008 7:28 pm : link
excellent piece. I sent you an email, did you get it? If not, will you please email me at rnargi@va.metrocast.net

Thanks...
I would add....  
Milton : 6/12/2008 7:29 pm : link
...that the player's current contract status also plays a role in how they pay a guy. As would injury history, but that's part of the future expectations that you mentioned.
Milton  
dibc : 6/12/2008 7:31 pm : link
Yup. It really is hard to tell what's reasonable. I think I'm more fatalistic about it than a lot of people here. My attitude is, well, we won a Super Bowl. No player (even the rookies) was exploited financially that I can see. If we're going to be the team that falls apart over salary demands, what can I do as a fan? Nothing but hope that Reese makes the right decisions.

But as far as what's fair it is difficult. It all depends on what the cap is going to be going forward, and that seems to be getting more and more unclear. At least to me. If the Giants are going to say (in theory) give Snee a $16 million bonus, is that unfair to Plax? Or is it just that we can't pay everyone and Snee is younger? On the flip side, I can't see giving Plax Owens-Moss-Walker money. As good as he is he's not Moss or Owens, and Walker was ridiculously overpaid. But if it's a good business decision and the money is there then what difference does it make?

The only part of the whole thing that really mystifies me is this - once someone has 15 or 20 or 25 million dollars in the bank, is it REALLY worth being on a losing team to make (say) another 15 or 20 million? AS opposed to making another 5 or 10 million and winning another championship? Esp. in NY where the personal and financial rewards of being on a winner are also pretty considerable.
rnargi  
Will in NJ : 6/12/2008 7:38 pm : link
I just checked it a couple minutes ago and responded.
When Plax is on the field,  
santacruzom : 6/13/2008 2:28 am : link
depending on the field, I bet he is definitely one of the top three... good receivers on the field.

(depending on the field)
Another point I haven't seen made...  
Wuphat : 6/13/2008 7:50 am : link
If you all remember March 05 (yes, I'm a 305er) was a time when "nobody would want to come and play for Tom Coughlin." Plax coming in and signing with the Giants really opened up for consideration by other high profile free agents that the Giants were, in fact, a viable place to come and play. The success that both he and the Giants have had since only helps his case. This team went from a place that most considered to be a poor choice for FAs to Super Bowl Champs. I don't want to say he single-handedly did this, but Plax really helped turn this team from a joke to a serious team. He also has had a hand in legitimizing TC as a coach that can work with "problem" players and earn their respect.

Bottom line, pay the man.
dibc  
cosmicj : 6/13/2008 8:48 am : link
when you mention a $16mm bonus (or say guaranteed money) for Snee, is that what you expect approximately or were you just throwing that sum out there?
cosmicj  
dibc : 6/13/2008 9:44 am : link
I was just throwing it out there. I'm no capologist. Maybe it's a bit high? I don't know. I'll bet his agent asked for at least what Hutchinson got though, if not more. Whatever that was, I don't remember. I certainly hope he doesn't get that much (unless the cap is big enough that the Giants can pay him that much and pay everyone else accordingly, too).
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