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Larry Fitz and the combine

KWALL : 2/13/2009 5:14 pm
NFLDraftscout is one of the best draft sites out there. It's a pay site but it's a bargain.

Under Fitz, NFLDraftscout has a 4.63 40 in the combine. And that 4.63 number is reported everywhere including a recent Wall Street Journal article on Fitz(that I hear is on his official website). Where do these places get that number? I'm guessing NFLDraftscout.

4.63? Does he run like a 4.63 guy? The 4.63 number doesn't match his speed. He ran at his proday and some timed him in the 4.4.s. ESPN,and others, also reported right after the combine that Fitz did not run at the combine.

So I emailed Rob Rang at NFLDraftscout. Here is his reply:

Regarding Fitzgerald... I ran the question by Brian Hitterman, our Sports Information Technician. It seems that when they redesigned the site and made everything is automated many of the Pro Day numbers were incorrectly placed into the Combine files. He didn't have the actual Combine results handy. Nor do I. The fact that so many others are/were reporting that Fitzgerald would not and did not run, makes me think he is an example of a glitch in our system.

So I guess we can drop the examples of Fitz as a 4.6+ WR and top 5 draft pick. Stick with Jerry Rice as the flag bearer of the 4.6+ and over group at WR. Of course, that 40 time for Rice was 25 yrs ago and Rice probably dropped outside of the top 15 because of it.


WSJ on Fitz - ( New Window )
thanks  
The Jake : 2/13/2009 5:16 pm : link
and good post.

you'd think that after watching Fitz torch defenders throughout the playoffs that people wouldn't put so much stock in numbers, but alas, they religiously stick to those 40 times as though it's more important than game speed.
All good stuff  
ScottnMorgantown : 2/13/2009 5:20 pm : link
but the games are still settled in pads on a football field near you.

Scoreboard.

Thickones? Yup tanked!
I always think of parcells' statement when asked about  
jintsfan : 2/13/2009 6:12 pm : link
a players numbers "CAN HE PLAY FOOTBALL?" In LF's case the answer is YES.
Great stuff KWALL  
jarrodbunch : 2/13/2009 6:14 pm : link
Thanks again.
This is revisionist  
Ben in Adirondacks : 2/13/2009 6:38 pm : link
an attempt to keep 40 times sacrosanct. The truth is that Fitz is a guy who plays faster than he times. People like me said he would be a great pro when he was at Pitt. Other people said he was too slow. (And to that end, I believe his "4.4s" at his pro day was actually a 4.55.) The stop watch doesn't tell you everything.
KWALL  
Mike fr Warwick : 2/13/2009 6:40 pm : link
Good work there.
Great Post  
Figgy2989 : 2/13/2009 6:44 pm : link
I started a thread the other day stating that too much stock goes into the combine and numbers some of these guys put up. Just further proof that good combine numbers don't necessarily relate to good football players.
BEn  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 7:07 pm : link
"I believe his "4.4s" at his pro day was actually a 4.55"

What does that mean? "actually a 4.55"? According to you it was actually a 4.55?

Proday is timed be several people. While looking for the combine stuff there were comments that he ran in the high 4.4s to low 4.5s. This was also on the NFLDraftscout website.

And the point of this thread? To answer a few questions that have been talked about recently on BBI.

Did he run at the combine?

Is the reported 4.63 number accurate?
Here is the quote from Nfldraftscout  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 7:12 pm : link
"ran between 4.48 and 4.51 in the 40... fastest clock was 4.46 and the slowest was 4.54..."

Proday numbers from 900links  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 7:13 pm : link
A very good site for workout numbers. They have him as a 4.47.

Fitzgerald 6-3 1/8, 221 40: 4.47 SS:4.27 3cone: 6.97 Bench: 20 Vert: 35" Broad:10-1
Yes, I remember hearing that Fitz broke 4.5  
Rich in L.A. : 2/13/2009 7:19 pm : link
and being very impressed with that at the time. I thought he was going to be in the high 4.5 range.
Scout.com  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 7:45 pm : link
"....Fitz's sub-4.5 40 this week relieved doubts about his speed. Those arose after Miami put the clamps on him late last season"
More to this,...  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 7:51 pm : link
Draftdaddy today has this:

DD.comment: A few weeks ago we posted a link in which Arizona Cardinals superstar Larry Fitzgerald admitted he ran a 4.63 at the 2004 Combine. Again, as we've noted a million times, we've felt too many in the media often give out over-inflated (incorrect) 40 times, so fans have unrealistic expectations and start believing a receiver that runs in the 4.5's is "too slow' to be a quality N.F.L. prospect. When, in reality, the average wide receiver prospect at the last Combine ran close to a 4.6.

I just emialed the guys at draftdaddy about Fitz at the combine and the link about Fitz. I'll post the reply later.


DD link - ( New Window )
DD also has  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 7:54 pm : link
the average numbers for each position in 08 combine. For WR? 4.57 avg for all WRs at combine.

Some interesting stuff on the link at Draftdaddy including:

Are 40 times overrated? Sometimes.....One scout told us that a 4.5 linebacker with a poor nose for the football (takes bad first steps and angles to the ball) is almost as useless on the field as a linebacker that runs above a 5.1 in the forty....But he want on to say a linebacker that runs about a 5.0 (i.e. Lofa Tatupu) that has a great nose for the ball, becomes a 4.5 (or better) linebacker on the field of play.

****
Be very careful when comparing these numbers to Pro Day numbers, because track and weather conditions vary so much from location to location, that it renders most Pro Day to Combine comparisons in the 40 yard dash useless. For example, Oklahoma linebacker Curtis Lofton ran Combine 40 times in the 4.8's hand timed (4.79 electronic), but his Pro Day times were in the 4.6's.



Link - ( New Window )
Good job KWALLL  
Ira : 2/13/2009 8:04 pm : link
LFitz obviously has good speed.
Well  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 8:17 pm : link
I thought I had this settled but now Draftdaddy(and they are reliable) says Fitz "admitted he ran 4.63"?

We'll see. I'm waiting for the reply from them.

Didn't Jerry Rice and Anquan Boldin also run much  
armsteadeatslittlekids : 2/13/2009 8:45 pm : link
better at their subsequent workouts?
I'm confused, Kwall  
Pete in VA : 2/13/2009 9:07 pm : link
You say that NFLD admits that he did not run 4.63 at the Combine, but you seem to ignore their statement that their error was that they accidentally used Pro Day numbers -- in other words, they say he did run 4.63, but at his Pro Day ( I do realize that there are other, lower, Pro day numbers). Are you accepting Rang's explanation of their mistake or not?
I'm pretty sure he chose not to run at the combine  
UberAlias : 2/13/2009 9:10 pm : link
and that's also what NFLDraftScout says on him.
KWALL  
UberAlias : 2/13/2009 9:18 pm : link
This quote "ran between 4.48 and 4.51 in the 40... fastest clock was 4.46 and the slowest was 4.54..." was from his 3/22/04 proday. He did not run at the combine, but did run at two other prodays.
My guess is that the 4.63  
UberAlias : 2/13/2009 9:20 pm : link
came from his first proday workout.
I believe the 4.63  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 10:12 pm : link
was an error(not sure how...I don't believe it was a pro day number they left in there).

My take on his explanation is they had some errors with the change of the website...usually it's a proday error...However, I know they have some pre workout estimates at that site. I believe the 4.63 was one of their estimates for him. I remember seeing that number very early on Fitz.



PFW  
KWALL : 2/13/2009 10:22 pm : link
They have detailed combine numbers on every WR at combine...No combine numbers for Fitz. Roy and Reggie Williams passed too.
Link - ( New Window )
Scott's right  
PeterS : 2/14/2009 10:52 am : link
it ain't the speed but what you do with it on the field. Beware of the WR with 4 flat speed and 2 flat hands!
KWALL  
bc4life : 2/14/2009 1:51 pm : link
Good info as usual.

On a totally unrelated note, any predictions re: Giants first two or three picks this year.

Who would be your picks in Rounds 1-3 this year? (Or, maybe this should be a seperate thread?)
Adding to what Scott and PeterS posted  
bc4life : 2/14/2009 1:54 pm : link
How often do you get to run forty straight yards, unimpeded?

That's why some have argued that the shuttles are a better indicator.
Thanks bc  
KWALL : 2/14/2009 1:59 pm : link
Unfortunately, my business cut into my college football season this year. I just didn't have the time to watch as much.

Of course, I saw every Rutgers game and believe Britt is the real deal. We could use a big WR. So Britt or a guy like Bey from Maryland or even the Ohio St kid Robiskie maes sense with the top pick.

I'm also OK with a TE in round 1(Okl St kid).

RB? Maybe. 2 good choices at bottom of one in Moreno and McCoy. Both guys I've seen a lot of and I like these guys as very good mid to late round 1 picks.

DBs were in good shape. Front 7 help with speed is always a good move.




Really the point here  
KWALL : 2/14/2009 2:02 pm : link
was just to clear up the Fitz stuff. The 4.63 number is everywhere and I don't think it's accurate.

It's been brought up a lot with Crabtree as evidence that a WR can run 4.6+ and still be a top 5 pick. I think Crabtree could run 4.6+ and that will knock him down in this draft.

I agree it's about speed, quickness, and power on the football field. Fitz clearly has that. But he also wasn't a 4.6+ runner.
Fitzgerald Did Not Run At The Combine  
Aceman : 2/14/2009 3:36 pm : link
KWALL,

According to NFL Draft Scout, Fitzgerald was present at the NFL Combine but did not run (See attached link). On the same web page it says that he ran several 40's on his pro day and they list the average at 4.48. That is very fast for a guy 6-3 and 225 lbs.
Link to 2004 NFLDraft Scout Combine Results - ( New Window )
Why are everybodys panties in a bind?  
NukeMiDong : 2/14/2009 5:38 pm : link
who cares what that cat ran, he's a friggin' player I don't care if he ran a 6.66 he is a demon on the field. Screw combine numbers its just hype to keep people talking about football in the off-season. I'd take Fitz over just about any wideout right now. No let me take that back i'd take Fitz over EVERY wideout right now.
Even Andre Johnson?  
boyzinblue : 2/14/2009 5:42 pm : link
it's not his fault he's stuck on the Texans.
look at the pittsburgh DB's  
newyork56lt : 2/14/2009 6:23 pm : link
then subtract a tenth of a second off. he burned them.
Draftdaddy  
KWALL : 2/16/2009 12:10 pm : link
article is below. No mention from Fitz that he ran a 4.63.

Post combine comments from Kiper. He mentioned the need for Fitz to have "an adequate show of speed in his workout". He wouldn't ask about that question if he ran a 4.63 a week earlier. No mention by Kiper in his archive about Fitz running at the combine. A 4.63 for a guy projected as a top 3 pick is news.

Kiper on 3/2/04

2. Oakland Raiders: *Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh
Another team with many needs. Oakland could use help at DL and S, but with an adequate show of speed in his workout, Fitzgerald could have the most impact of any player at any position for the Raiders. He has all the necessary skills.


And on the proday:

Kiper on Fitz
Originally Published: March 22, 2004 (Post Combine)

Monday as Pittsburgh sophomore Larry Fitzgerald held an on-campus workout for the pro scouts.

We all knew Larry Fitzgerald could go after the ball, and now we know how fast he is.

Perhaps the only question about Fitzgerald was his speed, and he did enough during his workout to maintain his spot at the top of the draft board. Running on artificial turf at Pitt's indoor practice facility, Fitzgerald ran an average 40 time of 4.50. That translates to about 4.56 on grass but is still fast enough to keep him from falling.
We all know about Fitzgerald's hands and body control when going up after the ball, so it comes as no surprise that he caught the ball well during his workout, and he also looked good in the individual position drills. Bundle that with his 6-3, 223-pound frame, terrific work ethic and humble attitude and Fitzgerald looks as solid as first thought. He should still be on track to go to Oakland at No. 2 or Arizona at No. 3.




Link - ( New Window )
One more thing from Kiper  
KWALL : 2/16/2009 12:13 pm : link
ABout Fitz....And I think it applies to Crabtree this yr.

"....His 40 time won't determine what kind of pro he will be, but it will affect whether or not he is the second overall pick. An ideal time would be in the 4.5 range. "

I think 4.6+ will hurt him and drop him out of top 10.

BTW, Draftdaddy guy said his sources told him Crabtree will not drop at 4.6 or slightly higher. Said it would take 4.75+.
Update  
KWALL : 2/23/2009 2:29 pm : link
NFL Network had a "DNP" next to Fitz at combine.

He did not participate. So next time somebody brings up the slow combine 40 for Fitz you know it's all BS.

Up next? The myth of Boldin's 4.71.
That's not an update  
jarrodbunch : 2/23/2009 2:39 pm : link
That's been established!

I'm curious where the 4.63 came from?

Also, did you ever get a response regarding Draft Daddy's post that stated they had a link that had Fitz admitting he ran a 4.63?

I don't have time now, but I'm curious what the variances were for Clermond and Strong. I think they both ran at the combine and Pitt's pro day. It would be a decent indicator to see how fluffed the Pitt Pro Day numbers may have been.
The official "DNP"  
KWALL : 2/23/2009 2:55 pm : link
from NFL Network is in!

Yeah...reply was "They weren't sure about his combine".

The article that thjey posted DID NOT have a quote from Fitz that he ran a 4.6+ or ran at combine.

Fitz weighed 220+. Ran in the high 4.4s at his proday. He had excellent measurables entering the NFL.
I believe the track  
KWALL : 2/23/2009 2:56 pm : link
is considered fast.
Haha  
jarrodbunch : 2/23/2009 3:10 pm : link
Nice work again KWALL. I think the Draft Daddy 'admitted' post was in reference to the WSJ article (in which he certainly did NOT admit to that). Just a gaff on their part.

I found that Clermond ran the 40 in 4.94 and 4.98 at the Pitt Pro-day last year and clocked a 5.12 at the combine. But that's just one example and doesn't really tell you much.

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