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Is it a myth that the WR production dropped off after Plax?

Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 10:56 am
Plaxico

10 Games / 9 Starts
35 receptions
454 yards
13 yards per catch avg.
4 TD's

Hixon

16 games / 7 Starts
43 receptions
596 yards
13.9 yards per catch avg.
2 TD's

There are those that say those stats don't matter because after Plax went down, Hixon didn't do anything in our last six games...

Hixon's last six games at #1

@ Washington: 5 catches, 71 yards, 14.2 avg., long of 18
Philly (his worst): 3 catches, 30 yards, 10 avg., long of 17 (one HUGE drop)
@ Dallas: 6 catches, 60 yards, 10 avg., long of 19
Carolina: 4 catches, 71 yards, 17.8 avg., long of 40
@ Minny: 4 catches, 62 yards, 15.5 avg. 23 yard (TD)
Philly: 2 catches, 37 yards, 18.5 avg., long of 32

Plaxico's last six games as a Giant (I'll make it 7, because Plaxico didn't start against Pitt)

Cincy: 3 catches, 45 yards, 15 avg., long of 28
@ Cleveland: 4 catches, 58 yards, 14.5 avg., long of 25, TD
San Fran: 3 catches, 24 yards, 8 avg., long of 14, TD
@ Pitt (did not start): 3 catches, 15 yards, 5 avg., long of 8
Dallas: 3 catches, 34 yards, 11.3 avg., long of 22
@ Philly: 1 catch, 17 yards, TD
Baltimore: 3 catches, 43 yards, 15.7 average, long of 21

I also threw out his last game vs. Arizona because he really didn't play at all, even though he started. He may have played one series.

Okay, so now, the averages.

Hixon's per game average over the last six games

4 catches per game
55 yards per game
.16 TD's per game

Plaxico's per game average over his last 7 games

2.85 catches per game (less than Hixon)
33.71 yards per game (significantly less than Hixon)
.428 TD's per game

Keep in mind, that both Hixon and Plaxico had monster games, Plaxico vs. the Skins, and Hixon vs. the Seahawks that are not included, so you get a better look at the overall view. Believe it or not, Plaxico was becoming somewhat non-existant well before he shot himself.

There seems to be a strong opinion here, some would say fact, that the team dropped off BECAUSE of the loss of Plaxico. I think these stats dispute that. There is also a strong opinion that Plaxico being double covered was what opened things up for the rest of the offense. That may be true, but it should be noted that Eli threw for the most yards (301) against Washington w/out Plaxico, and we ran for the most yards of the season (over 300) against Carolina.

I think the main thing that sticks out here are the TD's. Hixon is really good between the 20's, and moves the chains. However, where Eli really missed Plaxico was in the redzone. I think this supports the argument that we don't really need a "stretch the field" reciever as much as we need a "big redzone target". I think a trade for Tony Gonzalez would create the exact same double coverage and mismatches that we got with Plaxico Burress down inside the 20.

Overall, I think Hixon gets a lot of the blame for our late season collapse, with some of you going as far to say that our recievers are number 3's or 2's at BEST, and that they've already hit their ceiling. I would argue that Hixon can in fact be this team's number one, and could quite possibly be a very good one. Having a 6'5 WR is not the only way to get mismatches and double teams.

Therefore, I'm going to go with myth. Big, overblown myth.

Flame on.
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The offense will be re-factored without Plax,  
Danger Moose : 4/22/2009 1:00 pm : link
no matter whether they replace him with Edwards, Nicks, Robiskie, or nothing at all.

As Dorgan pointed out, they weren't able to ever really do that by the time Plax was completely unavailable.

I still think the season was lost moreso by the DL injury situation than by Burress, but certainly the confluence of the two really made it a steep hill to climb.

And as much as I mostly think he's contrary for no reason at all, GoTerps has a chance of being right that one of Smith/Manningham/Hixon/Moss could easily emerge without Toomer/Burress on the roster. Particularly when you factor the continuing development of Boss in year two as a starter.

So, factor in more reps throughout the offseason for the healthy "kids" at WR, development by Boss, and a re-factoring of the playbook to their particular skillsets by Manning/Gilbride/Coughlin, and there's no reason to panic.

Which is why Reese hasn't simply met the Browns demands for Edwards already. Reese isn't the sort to leave things to chance. If he felt that Edwards was the indispensible missing piece (after what he did with the defense in FA), he'd have acted decisively and left no chance for Philly or some other team to snatch Edwards from under them. Either Reese is supremely confident that Mankok is going to blink and that there are no other serious suitors, OR Reese simply believes that getting Edwards isn't vital in the pursuit of the XLIV Lombardi.
Not so plain and simple...  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 1:01 pm : link
Quote:
Plain and simple...
BigBlueBrethren : 12:42 pm
You mentioned what any obvious supporter of getting Braylon's argument would be, and completely discounted it by using stats and pointing to Hixon's potential as a #1 which I think you are as high as a kite to be seeing.

Hixon was cut by Denver about 1.5 yrs ago, I know guys that get released sometimes turn out to be very good...and he's been much more than we ever expected...but he's not a #1 WR.


YET. He's not a number on, yet. Maybe he never will be, but you saying that he can't be is just as assinine a statement and prediction as you think me saying he can be is.

Secondly, I support getting Braylon Edwards at the right price, dictated by Jerry Reese.

This was more of an argument to point out to those that are predicting a 7-9 to 8-8 season for us, if we don't get Edwards, that it was only a small part of the problem at the end of the season.
BB56 - Hixon was the returner that Kevin Everett of the Bills  
CL : 4/22/2009 1:01 pm : link
collided with while making the tackle. Everett, the tight end who was paralyzed but was able to regain function thanks to a technique of preventing meningeal inflammation with a direct injection of a cold saline solution?
Britt...  
BigBlueBrethren : 4/22/2009 1:03 pm : link
Fair enough...to be clear...I think we are a 10-11 win team as constructed, but the risk of seeing another playoff disaster like last yr is far greater if our WR corps does not get a needed boost come Saturday.
Britt - awesome post  
cosmicj : 4/22/2009 1:04 pm : link
Re BB56's argument that Coughlin needs a #1, I discussed the Jags late 90s team with him and, based on available stats, the argument about TC needing one appears to be wrong.
DaMoose  
dorgan : 4/22/2009 1:04 pm : link
on point with the DL play falling off.

We were worn out and used up.
We have attempted to address that.

We became too reliant on the X position.
We'll attempt to address that.

Last year's playoff disaster  
Danger Moose : 4/22/2009 1:05 pm : link
was really about the DL, and they've already addressed that. But I would like another DE in the draft to put in the pipeline with a higher ceiling than Tollefson. Maybe that's Henderson? Who knows... (neelo knows).
It's incredibly obvious  
Jerry in DC : 4/22/2009 1:07 pm : link
that the offensive production fell off the table without Plax. People can rationalize it however they want. It might make them feel better, but it won't help the team score points.
In reference to relying too much on the X...  
CL : 4/22/2009 1:08 pm : link
Early in the season, there was an uproar because many BBI members felt Plaxico was being targeted too often. I ran all the numbers and it came to light that Burress was receiving less than 30% of the targets. It is somewhat relevant to this discussion, given that a large contingent of the site feels this team is doomed without an all-pro replacement. I could find the information somewhere if anyone is interested.
Warwick  
cosmicj : 4/22/2009 1:09 pm : link
you are absolutely right to point out the inexperience of all our current WRs.

Is there any sane reason to think that one or several of Hixon (age 24), Smith (23), Manningham (22), Moss (25) and Boss (24) won't make substantial progress next year?
dorgan I agree with your 1:04  
Glen in SoCal : 4/22/2009 1:09 pm : link
even if it's too much of a logical progression for some on BBI to take.








DM  
Big Blue '56 : 4/22/2009 1:11 pm : link
Good post, but there are some ifs in there I am not presently comfortable with...You and GT could ultimately be proven correct were we not to get Edwards and perhaps I'm worrying for nothing, but after recently watching the last bunch of games, the bitter taste of that part of the season continues to be ongoing...

Again, my present mindset(I'm open to being objective, certainly)is that without that #1 and all that that person would bring to the table, I believe we're definitely playoff caliber, just not SB contending...I pray I'm incorrect about this
BB'56-  
Danger Moose : 4/22/2009 1:16 pm : link
you're incorrect. But whether they can recover with a full offseason to prepare for the post-Burress/Toomer falls squarely on the shoulders of Coughlin/Gilbride/Manning. There's more than enough talent to push this team to a title. A proven #1 like Edwards would be insurance. A tipping point, if you will. And I'd love to get him. But no reason to be desperate to do so.
I agree with dorgan, etc... who believe that the truth is somewhere  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 1:24 pm : link
in between.

This is not a Braylon Edwards Lover (there are a lot of you out there) bashing thread. It's about the slight on Eli and our current WR's that are being made out to be a bunch of bums... Well, not Eli.
we just lost  
Dr.Bud : 4/22/2009 1:24 pm : link
two of eli's major targets and one of them was THEE target. We need antother WR to put us over the top, BRaylon can bring that to us. I agree with BB56

And to those saying we'll change our offense this year, thank god, off with Gilbrides head
BBI needs more Dr Buds.  
CL : 4/22/2009 1:27 pm : link
Thank you for you valued contribution.
Da Moose  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 1:27 pm : link
with a personal jab. The more things change...
I'd take it as a compliment.  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 1:29 pm : link
.
Britt  
GMenLTS : 4/22/2009 2:19 pm : link
I mentioned it before but I take all this talk, since it always involves saying Eli 'needs this' or needs that because he's inaccurate, whatever, I take it all the talk as a slight to Eli in addition to the present WRs
True....  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 2:56 pm : link
but Eli is not getting anywhere NEAR the heat that Hixon and Smith are getting. At least most of BBI isn't offering Eli up as trade bait.
No one's been a bigger Eli guy  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 3:08 pm : link
than me, and I thought it was fairly clear that he just played poorly in the playoff game. His mechanics were poor. It happens...consistency is an aspect of his game that he has yet to perfect...as is the case with most QBs in their 4th full season as a starter.
Britt  
Bill2 : 4/22/2009 3:56 pm : link
Great post

Fully agree

I also point out that the folks insisting that Plax drew the double team "all the time" are not correct. Different teams did different things under different downs and distances.

Witness the 300 yards at Carolina or Ware running in Minny or or or
I recently asked a friend who has done pre-draft scouting and writing  
DP : 4/22/2009 3:58 pm : link
for some draft publications about Braylon Edwards. Here is the answer.

I don't want Braylon Edwards at any price. Two years ago he had an excellent season and went to the Pro Bowl. Last year he dropped 16 balls, none of them difficult catches. He has a history of dropping too many balls throughout college and his time in the league.
He's very early in his career and it's unusual for a team to unload a 1st round pick with lots of talent so soon. There's something going on there. Like maybe the coaches are sick to death of watching him drop balls in practice.
and doubt that he'll ever make another Pro Bowl.

But, in answer to your question, if Braylon had a year like 2007 he'd be a big help.
DP  
Bill2 : 4/22/2009 4:01 pm : link
Or ...the recent report he went to Europe to "dry out" has all the meaning normally ascribed to such a phrase.

Jab?  
Danger Moose : 4/22/2009 4:52 pm : link
Just being honest, man. Would you rather me bullshit you?
Ha  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 4:59 pm : link
Whatever suits your fancy, Da Moose.
Britt  
JA TO : 4/22/2009 5:01 pm : link
Outstanding post. Thanks for putting that together.
From the Philly home game in the regular season onward in week 14  
JoeMP2003 : 4/22/2009 5:07 pm : link
The Giants offense looked like the Oakland Raiders. Theres no getting around that

Outside of the Carolina game, where we played a very average defense who was missing their big run stuffing DT, we couldn't do anything

210 minutes of football against the Eagles, Cowboys and Vikings (in the one half the starters did play) the offense did not score a Touchdown, outside of a garbage time TD trailing Philly 20-7 with 10 seconds left in week 14. And we shouldn't even count that

The depth on the DL was a hit but not the biggest culprit. They allowed essentially 16 points against the Eagles in the playoff game, the Eagles scored a TD on a one yard drive when Eli threw a pick to set them up for another score, and i can't hang that on the defense. They weren't the biggest reason our offense couldn't sniff the endzone against any halfway decent D


How many playoff games  
JoeMP2003 : 4/22/2009 5:15 pm : link
can you realistically expect to win without scoring a single offensive TD and missing on 2 of the FG attempts you do earn?

For all intents and purposes our offense scored 6 points in that playoff game. 2 were on a safety and 3 were on a FG which was basically a 10 yard drive off the Robbins INT

I really can't hang that loss on the DL.
BB56  
JOrthman : 4/22/2009 6:57 pm : link
I don't know if this was addressed yet, but I have to address your 11:45 am post simply because it is a pet peave of mine. Why is it injuries only seem to count when other teams have them? Our team never gets to use injury excuses, so why is it when we want to discredit one of our wins to prove our point we use the other teams injuries as the reason.

The second thing I want to discuss is the excuse I've heard sports announcers and Pitt. fans use and that is the punter and longsnapper excuse for that loss. We were about the get the ball back anyway and turned around and scored a TD, so tell me again how those injuries altered the outcome?
One thing that doesn't get mentioned as a factor  
NYG in NC : 4/22/2009 7:09 pm : link
because everyone says he was washed up, is that the offense sputtered when Toomer was benched after the Redskins game (his and Eli's best game of the season). Not saying that was the major reason, but in 2006 when AT was hurt, Eli's struggles were blamed on the loss of Toomer. During Eli's playoff hot streak in 2007, Toomer was his main target. He was still a veteran wr that defenses still probably respected more than Smith and Hixon.
Toomer's tank hitting E  
Danger Moose : 4/22/2009 9:06 pm : link
definitely made the impact of losing Burress even greater. No one is a bigger fan of Toomer's than I am, but he just didn't have anything left.
I agree with Jerry in DC.  
Thomas : 4/22/2009 9:23 pm : link
The offense took a big hit without Plax. Ineffective in the red zone. No big plays. Couldn't score points.

It was most evident against the better defenses. The passing game looked inept vs. DAL and PHI late in the year, as their excellent CBs pushed our WRs around. No one stepped up. Hixon is one of my favorites but he showed he wasn't ready for prime time last year.

I still have high hopes for Mario Manningham - he's got the goods to be a Pro Bowl #1 WR. A sick talent - and he looked good in the season finale vs. MIN. Tons of separation.
You guys better learn to love the recievers we have on our roster....  
Britt in VA : 4/23/2009 8:26 am : link
because there is going to be some disappointment come Saturday night.
Bump.  
Britt in VA : 4/27/2009 8:27 am : link
Excellent draft by Reese.
Additionally....  
Britt in VA : 4/27/2009 8:34 am : link
we added what could be some big redzone targets.

So we didn't get Edwards. Big deal. I'm loving our WR core:

Hixon
Smith
Nicks
Manningham
Barden 6'6

Boss
Beckum 6'4

Two big Redzone targets. Exactly what we needed.

We're good between the 20's, we just need guys to go up and get it. Nicks attacks the ball, and will fight for it. The other guys, specifically Beckam, are tall and play like WR's. Reese played it perfectly, IMO.

Nobody wants to hear it, but we didn't need Edwards. He was a luxury, not a neccessity.
That's your opinion  
Big Blue '56 : 4/27/2009 8:36 am : link
We shall see what transpires in 2009...2010? I'm rather optimistic
My friend, one last thing  
Big Blue '56 : 4/27/2009 8:45 am : link
as it's silly for you and I to rehash all our posts on the subject...You are filled with optimism and hope, but that is mere conjecture as it pertains to our draft picks at WR...It's also hope and conjecture that the WR corps we presently have returning will take the next step...I certainly share the hope with you, what true Giants' fan wouldn't?
Our difference is that with no trade or "need" as you put it for an Edwards or #1 vet WR, we are left with nothing but hope...I don't see it manifesting into much in 2009 beyond a playoff appearance...Apparently you do...Which one of us do you think I hope is right?

Ok, movin' on...:o)
I saw a lot of positives in the play of Hixon  
Britt in VA : 4/27/2009 8:53 am : link
ALL YEAR. Too many people, respectfully yourself included, zero'd in on the last five games. You have to see the bigger picture, and it looks like he's developing on schedule.

5 games does not make a career.
Boy  
Big Blue '56 : 4/27/2009 8:56 am : link
I hope you're right
I am.  
Britt in VA : 4/27/2009 8:57 am : link
F that "one and done" sh-t. We're making a run, book it.
One more thing I like about our draft  
Britt in VA : 4/27/2009 8:59 am : link
and WR core overall.

All of them: young and hungry. No divas, nobody feeling like they're owed something. All of them trying to earn their spot and make a name for themselves. All of them at every workout, every conditioning session, every OTA.

Eli's never, ever had that before here. Eli and the WR's are going to be the sharpest this year they've been in years. I'm telling you.
Britt  
GMenLTS : 4/27/2009 9:01 am : link
Can't even tell you how pumped I am to watch these guys. Now I'm just waiting for Eli's new deal to be finished and onward to camp to watch the magic begin.

Defense is going to be absolutely sick and the O is looking much better now. The competition is gonna be fun.

Now, one last thing. Please god keep our team healthy. Please!
BB  
Bill2 : 4/27/2009 9:03 am : link
imho, depending on "hope" is even more true applied to dependence on one person....as we saw with Plax

In the end we are fans...and we hope

Fortunately, unlike fans for most teams in the NFL, over the next couple of years, we have rational support for hoping.


LTS  
Britt in VA : 4/27/2009 9:29 am : link
we have a really good team, no matter what these armchair GM's try to tell you.
BB'56-  
Danger Moose : 4/27/2009 11:13 am : link
Frankly, that Braylon Edwards would get over his drops and display the dominance of 2007 was largely, conjecture, as well.

Edwards could've easily come here and posted another 800-yard underwhelming season.
Like I said on many other threads  
JoeMP2003 : 4/27/2009 12:43 pm : link
The investment they made in improving the passing game this weekend was just as big if not bigger than if they had traded for Edwards (although it will cost less in terms of money). And I wanted Edwards here. But when you use THREE top 100 picks on pass catchers, something the Giants have never done in their history, you are making a major commitment toward revitalizing our passing offense. Top 100 picks are premium resources, and we used two of them on WR and another one on an H-Back/TE who's receiving skills they rave about.

Reese obviously was not poo pooing the need for getting Eli weapons like many were. He attacked this weakness about as strong as anyone could attack a weakness in the draft.
Britt in VA  
Thomas : 4/27/2009 7:54 pm : link
You are taking credit for this? Your position seemed to be that the Giants were fine with what they had at WR before the draft.

They obviously didn't agree - as they used 2 premium draft picks at the position - 1 on a guy who is almost a carbon copy of Plax physically.

Hixon's best role on this team is as a backup WR and special teams ace. KR/PR and coverage.
JoeMP is exactly right  
JerseyJoe : 4/27/2009 8:03 pm : link
cant hang that loss on the D. They didnt dominate but played well enough to win with a just decent offensive performance.

We should be able to score more than the 16 that the D gave them.
Guys, losing Plax is NOT about losing HIS offensive production...  
tyleraimee : 4/27/2009 8:09 pm : link
what you fail to realize is that he had to be doubled on every play. This opened up the field for the rest of our eligible WR's. It also meant that the safety could not bite too hard on the run because he also needed to help with Plax if we passed on that play. Don't believe me, just ask Brian Dawkins. He said it.

What we need is a WR that is going to draw a double team....plain and simple. He doesn't even have to be as productive as Burress. He just has to scare defenses.
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