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Is it a myth that the WR production dropped off after Plax?

Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 10:56 am
Plaxico

10 Games / 9 Starts
35 receptions
454 yards
13 yards per catch avg.
4 TD's

Hixon

16 games / 7 Starts
43 receptions
596 yards
13.9 yards per catch avg.
2 TD's

There are those that say those stats don't matter because after Plax went down, Hixon didn't do anything in our last six games...

Hixon's last six games at #1

@ Washington: 5 catches, 71 yards, 14.2 avg., long of 18
Philly (his worst): 3 catches, 30 yards, 10 avg., long of 17 (one HUGE drop)
@ Dallas: 6 catches, 60 yards, 10 avg., long of 19
Carolina: 4 catches, 71 yards, 17.8 avg., long of 40
@ Minny: 4 catches, 62 yards, 15.5 avg. 23 yard (TD)
Philly: 2 catches, 37 yards, 18.5 avg., long of 32

Plaxico's last six games as a Giant (I'll make it 7, because Plaxico didn't start against Pitt)

Cincy: 3 catches, 45 yards, 15 avg., long of 28
@ Cleveland: 4 catches, 58 yards, 14.5 avg., long of 25, TD
San Fran: 3 catches, 24 yards, 8 avg., long of 14, TD
@ Pitt (did not start): 3 catches, 15 yards, 5 avg., long of 8
Dallas: 3 catches, 34 yards, 11.3 avg., long of 22
@ Philly: 1 catch, 17 yards, TD
Baltimore: 3 catches, 43 yards, 15.7 average, long of 21

I also threw out his last game vs. Arizona because he really didn't play at all, even though he started. He may have played one series.

Okay, so now, the averages.

Hixon's per game average over the last six games

4 catches per game
55 yards per game
.16 TD's per game

Plaxico's per game average over his last 7 games

2.85 catches per game (less than Hixon)
33.71 yards per game (significantly less than Hixon)
.428 TD's per game

Keep in mind, that both Hixon and Plaxico had monster games, Plaxico vs. the Skins, and Hixon vs. the Seahawks that are not included, so you get a better look at the overall view. Believe it or not, Plaxico was becoming somewhat non-existant well before he shot himself.

There seems to be a strong opinion here, some would say fact, that the team dropped off BECAUSE of the loss of Plaxico. I think these stats dispute that. There is also a strong opinion that Plaxico being double covered was what opened things up for the rest of the offense. That may be true, but it should be noted that Eli threw for the most yards (301) against Washington w/out Plaxico, and we ran for the most yards of the season (over 300) against Carolina.

I think the main thing that sticks out here are the TD's. Hixon is really good between the 20's, and moves the chains. However, where Eli really missed Plaxico was in the redzone. I think this supports the argument that we don't really need a "stretch the field" reciever as much as we need a "big redzone target". I think a trade for Tony Gonzalez would create the exact same double coverage and mismatches that we got with Plaxico Burress down inside the 20.

Overall, I think Hixon gets a lot of the blame for our late season collapse, with some of you going as far to say that our recievers are number 3's or 2's at BEST, and that they've already hit their ceiling. I would argue that Hixon can in fact be this team's number one, and could quite possibly be a very good one. Having a 6'5 WR is not the only way to get mismatches and double teams.

Therefore, I'm going to go with myth. Big, overblown myth.

Flame on.
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you can throw out all the stats you want  
DCPollaro : 4/22/2009 10:59 am : link
but not having plax hurt us late in the season

and you cant throw out plax's stats this year to support your reasoning...gilbride even mentioned on just having plax on the field was huge because of the coverages and it opens a lot of room for the other players on the field


And the running game needs Shockey  
oipolloi : 4/22/2009 10:59 am : link
Remember all those stats showing how Jacobs productivity declined when JS went down in 2007?

Plax  
blapre : 4/22/2009 11:00 am : link
kept the defense honest. Philly can't play 8 in the box with a great receiver on the field. Statistics are useless at times. Sometimes the threat is stronger than the execution. With Plax on the field, the Eagles' can't single cover the receivers and stop the run the way they did.
No flame  
Big Blue '56 : 4/22/2009 11:00 am : link
Numbers can camouflage the problems we had the last 5 games, to wit: running game went south save for the Panther game, Eli held the ball longer subjecting himself to more sacks and lots of pressure and probably more 3 and outs than usual as teams stacked the box...This is naked eye observations compared to our 11-1 start...Our D of course became fatigued, because of injury and the O's inability to keep them off the field
Fucking awesome post, Britt  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 11:01 am : link
.
How many TDs did Eli throw to a WR in the last 5 games of the year?  
BoldRuler : 4/22/2009 11:01 am : link
I think that answers the question.
The difference between the two is  
VAJerr : 4/22/2009 11:01 am : link
Plax commanded the double team at all times. When left one-on-one he was unstoppable. Without him, the other teams would crowd the line of scrimmage and take away our running game. I'd like to see the stats on our running game, 3rd down effeciency after Plax started shooting.
To counteract  
eladnospar : 4/22/2009 11:02 am : link
Plax was our best blocking receiver. He took two defenders in the green zone, which opened up for our running game, and he gave Smith, Toomer, and Boss a lot of 1-1's.

The defense's strategy would change once Burress was out. We saw a lot mroe 8 men in the box without Plax.
Hixon  
RoadWarriorz : 4/22/2009 11:02 am : link
Is the Giants version of Todd Pinkston.
Eagles use to think Todd was a #1 WR too.
I refuse to believe  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 11:03 am : link
that our running game went south because of Plax's absence. If we knew Plax was disinterested, opposing coaches did too.
I went back and watched the games.....  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 11:05 am : link
We moved up and down the field between the 20's, and stalled in the Redzone. We can fix that, and it doesn't have to be with a Plaxico-like WR.
Let's not forget Jacobs's  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 11:05 am : link
injury problems down the stretch.
Or Hixon's.  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 11:05 am : link
.
not having Plax killed us  
bxgiants4 : 4/22/2009 11:06 am : link
.
No flame here  
Still a Sam Huff fan : 4/22/2009 11:06 am : link
Plax's loss was important but there is more to offensive football than looking at the absence of one player. For one, this team did a dreadful job, IMO, of altering its playbook to cope with Plax's loss. The offense gave the defense no time for rest. Other players, including Eli, performed poorly. All in all, we sucked but it was only partially due to Plax himself.
Sam Huff Fan....  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 11:07 am : link
You can only adjust so much, during the season, over the last 4 weeks heading into the playoffs, despite that many here will tell you that's an eternity. It's not.
Good post man!  
AnishPatel : 4/22/2009 11:08 am : link
I am in favor of getting Tony G as well. It probably won't happen but if that's the case then perhaps a TE in this years draft may be a good addition to our offense. Then I would bank on the fact that TC and Gilbride will add some more stuff to the offense or tweak existing stuff to tailor to the talent we have. After all, they have shown in past years a good ability to adjust, specifically in our running game.
I'd like to see  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 11:09 am : link
an alteration of the scheme in the redzone. With the mismatches that guys like Jacobs and Boss represent, I'm hoping to see more play action passing out of jumbo "run formations" and running out of 3 or even 4 WR "pass formations".

With Eli's ability to change the play at the line, why not attack where the opposing personnel is weakest? If the defense has big people on the field, throw the ball more...if they have small people, run it.

If it's 3rd and goal from the 5, I like our chances with Jacobs running up the middle against 1 or 2 LBs.
we adjusted fine without plax against the weaker  
DCPollaro : 4/22/2009 11:09 am : link
defenses

but when we had to play harder defenses we could not adjust properly..........ie the eagles......if we have a plax type player vs the eagles im pretty sure we would win
He had our chances against the Eagles....  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 11:10 am : link
.
Britt  
Still a Sam Huff fan : 4/22/2009 11:10 am : link
I can appreciate that but we should not be looking at 4 weeks. Players go down all the time and contingencies must be in place. What if he didn't shoot himself but tore something instead. Happens all the time, right? Do we just sit around and feel sorry for ourselves? No. We put in place, that plan which is/should be sitting on the shelf.

You don't consider Washington, Carolina, and Minny  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 11:11 am : link
to be good defenses?
Hixon is NOT Todd Pinkston...  
Curtis in MD : 4/22/2009 11:11 am : link
They may be close in height and weight, but Hixon is much stronger. Pinkston was a bean pole.
Or Pittsburgh,  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 11:11 am : link
where Plax was a non factor?
Not having Plax out there  
SanFranGiantsFan : 4/22/2009 11:12 am : link
let the defense concentrate less on our WRs because none of them were of Plax's caliber and put more defenders in the box to stop the run. You can point to the stats, but the offense just wasn't the same without Plax out there in December. He kept defenses honest. Even Jimmie Johnson & Dawkins admitted as much in that December game in the Meadowlands.
Am I the only one dancing a line  
Davisian : 4/22/2009 11:12 am : link
Between thinking the team can be/was fine without Plax, yet still needs another weapon at WR, preferably a veteran one since it normally takes wideouts so long to adapt????



So what? Is the WR the only person that can command a double team?  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 11:13 am : link
?
Was that question to me?  
Davisian : 4/22/2009 11:15 am : link
If so, my answer is simply that having the additional weapon at Wideout would keep that extra guy farther out of the box.

No..  
SanFranGiantsFan : 4/22/2009 11:15 am : link
But no one else on the offense commands a double team.
GoTerps,  
AnishPatel : 4/22/2009 11:15 am : link
This is just a educated guess, but I expect to see that damn delay run more in the redzone with Bradshaw, taking adv. of his vision and ability to slip tackles. I can see us doing shit like that to get us alot close for either a run, or something like a curl, arrow, or even a back shoulder pass to a wr.
That's a good analysis, Britt,  
Section331 : 4/22/2009 11:15 am : link
but I think what the stats mis is how teams defended Plax and Hixon. Teams had to rotate help towards Plax, preventing safeties from crowding the LOS. They didn't defend Hixon the same way.

I know it's only one sample, but one reporter watched game tapes of our games against Philly, the first with Plax, the 2nd without. He estimated that Plax was doubled on 75% of the Giants' offensive plays, while Hixon was doubled only 7% in the 2nd game.

Again, only one sample, but I'd be interested in hearing from some who analyze game tape more closely than I to see if this was a pattern. Personally, I have a hard time believing it wasn't.
Davisian....  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 11:16 am : link
no, it was to SFGF.
Curtis  
RoadWarriorz : 4/22/2009 11:17 am : link
Hixon aint a bean pole?
really?
Todd Pinkston weighed the same as Hixon and was a inch taller.
They both have the same frame, Todd Pinkston couldn't gain weight, which is exactly what I think is going to happen to Hixon. Making him a limited guy where he run on the field.

Todd Pinkston blew up his 3rd year too.
798 rec yrds 7 TD's
Britt  
DCPollaro : 4/22/2009 11:19 am : link
Quote:
You don't consider Washington, Carolina, and Minny
Britt in VA : 11:11 am
to be good defenses?


what did the passing game do vs Carolina? Minnesota doesnt count as we had already clinched and were very vanilla and the backups played a lot

eli through for 305 against washington but 75 of it was some nice YAC yardage from Derrick Ward
Anish  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 11:19 am : link
Am I completely off here? Because it seemed like last year there was very little deception in the redzone. And by deception I don't mean trick plays, just showing one type of play and running another.

A couple times we hit Darcy Johnson for 1 yard TD passes...I love that play. Why not run similar plays more often?
It's not about the numbers  
gainesvillegiant : 4/22/2009 11:20 am : link
It's about the product on the field. You don't have to be a coach or an expert to know we looked like horseshit when Plax was out. Just not the same football team. Period. I understand there is an adjustment period, but the offense was downright awful at times. Sometimes lasting 3-4 quarters and it would show no signs of life. I do have faith in the coaches to work with the players we have and get the offense back on track if a deal for BE is not made. However, if we go into next season without the addition of BE or a great year from a rookie (not expecting that) then the offense will never be the same until we add someone. I don't see us being dynamic again until we make a move or we strike gold and get huge production from an early draftee.
That team  
Dan in WNY : 4/22/2009 11:20 am : link
specifically the Dline was worn out. I've never seen a stretch of games like the Giants had the 2nd half of the year. All of their cupcake games, plus the bye, were in the 1st half of the season. The D couldn't get of the field. The players, specifically Pierce and Tuck, just looked SLOW by the end of the season. This is the major reason for the collapse, IMO.

That said, you can't discount what the Eagles coaches and players said about the loss of Plax and how it changed the defensive strategy against the Giants. I'd love Edwards on this team, but I think the return of Osi and another full season for Kiwi at DE is more important.
Nice post Britt  
Pitt G-man Dan : 4/22/2009 11:24 am : link
I had been thinking the same thing. I always felt that it was a team decline and not as much because of Plaxico. Sure it didn't help that he was lost but it also wasn't as big as everyone around here made it out to be.
Britt, to your point at 11:13,  
Section331 : 4/22/2009 11:24 am : link
no, the double-team threat does NOT have to be a WR. That's one reason I advocated getting Tony G from the Chiefs at the deadline. I think Boss can serve that role, as well, not so much in demanding a double-team, but in demanding safety attention down the seams.

I do think Plax's height helped in the red zone, and his absence contributed greatly to the Giants' red zone problems after he was out.
I think Brandon Jacobs  
Joe in Cambridge : 4/22/2009 11:26 am : link
best captured my opinion on this subject:
Quote:
If we had Plax on our team, we go 15-1 and we win the Super Bowl. And I'm not afraid to say that and I'll say it to anybody on any team. We had a different identity with him and we didn't have enough time to change our identity to be effective at what we wanted to do.

Link - ( New Window )
The biggest thing I take from Jacobs' quote  
Davisian : 4/22/2009 11:27 am : link
we didn't have enough time to change our identity to be effective at what we wanted to do.

And now they have time..  
Davisian : 4/22/2009 11:27 am : link
..
exactly.  
Britt in VA : 4/22/2009 11:28 am : link
.
Considering Plax's 3 redzone TDs last year  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 11:28 am : link
I'd say our red zone struggles didn't just start when he was out of the picture.
Great post, Britt.  
Danger Moose : 4/22/2009 11:28 am : link
The reality is that the team fell of late in the season because the DL was beat-up and ragged. The same DL that basically single-handedly won a Super Bowl the year before.

Burress didn't screw the season. Throughout his career, he's followed up great seasons with average ones, and what he was on pace for in 2008 was right in line with an average season after a monster one. It fits the pattern. Guys don't change at some late date in their career, very often.
So then  
Joe in Cambridge : 4/22/2009 11:28 am : link
it wouldn't be a myth?
ah,  
dorgan : 4/22/2009 11:29 am : link
I've been waiting patiently for someone to trot out that quote and I had the feeling they would not highlight the "not enough time" that he alluded to.

dorgan  
Davisian : 4/22/2009 11:30 am : link
Can I get a sticker for catching that?

RW,  
Curtis in MD : 4/22/2009 11:30 am : link
they might weigh the same but look at their build. They are sculpted differently.

Pinkston



Hixon


Just because they weigh the same, doesn't mean they are similar in strength.
That's the first time I've  
Go Terps : 4/22/2009 11:32 am : link
seen that quote from Jacobs. Says a lot.
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