QBR & winning, and spinning the Eli wheel

is the most subjective stat possible for a QB and it's highly driven by the weather you play in and the system you're in.

and continues to be, an issue. No doubt, I think we all expected Eli to be playing better at this point of his career.

It also helps to note that 5 of those "craptastic" games took place in Eli's rookie year. A +6 delta puts him in Brett Favre's category, with far fewer stats.

And any metric that rates David Garrard as a top ten QB is seriously flawed.

in all of Eli's crap games? Same question for all of the QBs with a differential of plus 10? Also, what about stadiums and strength of the opposing defense, and average age and skill level of the WRs?

Hi HBart.

doesn't seem to correlate with your "stats"

Are you suggesting that we win in spite of his play?

what we already know if you're willing to look at Eli objectively.

One week he looks like an MVP and the next he's turning away from throws in the face of the pass rush and doing the "Chuck and Duck". He made some absolutely horrible throws in Philly on Sunday. I have cheared for Eli since the beggining and always will because he plays for the N.Y. Giants, but I'm afraid that after 6 years, this is what Eli always will be. You just never know what you're gonna get. All we can do is pray for the "Good" Eli to be there at the end of the season and that the team has survived and is still in the hunt.

Thanks, glad someone actually sees things the way they are instead of how they want them to be.

but also has the luxury of a team that excels on the ground and (usually) plays good defense & isn't often required to put up huge stats to get wins?

Just because he doesn't have to put up huge numbers to win doesn't mean he can't put up huge numbers to win (slump aside).

So i am going to repost here:

Quote:

Wow Zoolander : 12:19 am Kurt Warner - 5 INT's this week Philip Rivers - Been spotty all year McNabb - Benched last year Romo - Sucked, absolutely sucked until three weeks ago Campbell - Sucked all year long and last year Delhomme - MISERABLE Matt Ryan - On and Off this year Alex Smith - Not anywhere near Eli's talent level Hasselbeck - Ummm, his time has come and gone Bulger - Was benched this year Cutler - Hardly consistent from week to week Rothlisf*cker - average this year Sanchez-rookie woes Tom Brady - didn't start playing well until he played the lowly Titans Kerry Collins - Reality has caught up with him Quinn and Anderson - pathetic Palmer - just starting to heat up Tampa Bay - who is their QB? lol Jamarcus Russell - horrible Orton - average and in a good system The good ones - Rodgers - a great season so far Peyton - Awesome Drew Brees - could possibly be the second coming of Dan Marino Favre - a product of Minnesota's potent offense Did I miss anyone? The fact is Eli is a GOOD QB and EVERY QB has bad games, even Rodgers had a rough game in his first loss to Minny and against Cincy, Favre F'd up against Pitt, and Peyton was average this week. Warner throws 5 PICKS this week! C'mon dude, it is NOT ELI - he is still a top tier QB in this league and was in the season MVP race until he got injured.

people just seem to take great pleasure in their attempts to prove Eli Manning sucks. The thing is, even if he does suck, he is a Giant. As a fan of the team, I would want any player to do well here and would never relish the moments when they are down.

To illustrate Dave's point a little better, what was Chad Pennington's QBR and numbers from his last year as jet in comparison to last year?

point, but it is an <b>indicative</b> data point.

And BB is right.

The real question is why Eli Manning was valued so highly to warrant the contract he received.

When you watch Brees, Peyton, Brady, Rivers, BR, and even Warner and Romo make pinpoint passes multiple times each game, hitting their receivers in stride (permitting mucho YAC), when Manning has generally made such passes few times each game, it makes you wonder.

The Giants' QB play this season is not the only reason for crapping the bed the last three games, but it is a big reason.

In QBR.

So far as it being influenced by weather, system, etc. of course it is. That doesn't invalidate it (nor does an occasional anomaly like Garrard - all stats have them). The correlation between winning and the stat is incredibly high - and in fact Eli is himself an anomaly in that respect. Andy, yes I would in fact suggest that we often win in spite of Eli.

For those who argue that Eli would fare better in a dome and better weather, I'd agree. All QBs do, and IMHO Eli would benefit more than most. It's an interesting counterpoint to the often heard suggestion that his peers (Ben R comes to mind) wouldn't fare as well here in NY.

It's not about being prone to slumps. Every athlete in any sport is going to have good days and bad days. It's just that the best athletes have far fewer bad days than good days. Eli splits them about equally. I would also be willing that many times, the team has won in spite of him. There are also times that the team wins because of him, such as Dallas this year and all 4 post season games in 2007. However, as a number one overall pick that arguably could have set the franchise back because we gave up so much to get him, he should be much better than middle of the road. Eli is middle of the road. If he didn't play for the Giants everyone on here would not fear him one bit and he would get all of the same flack that Rivers, Roethlisberger and Romo get. Maybe even worse because he throws a lot of interceptions and struggles greatly with accuracy and the blitz. Why is it so bad to accept what we have? Just be objective. Is he good? Yeah, he's certainly better than many alternatives. In no way is he an elite QB and he won't be. He still has a lot of the same problems he had his first 5 years. He is what he is.

Also the fact is, many of these QBs that are so revered by HBart, have long periods of slumping. There are just as many throws that miss for the other QBs. the difference to me seems that they are able to fall back on the other options on offense (running game, all pro TE, All pro receivers, or better offensive systems). Could anyone please show a break down of the passes to the backs and TE for the other QBs as opposed to Eli.

Stats show alot, but can easily be use to prove any point.

spot on.

Beyond his lack of (consistent) accuracy, he has yips in the pocket and is not particularly athletic.

Protection for Eli vs. the Eagles was quite good, but Eli sucks against that team.

who is relishing in the fact that Eli Manning sucks? I see no one posting any such nonsense in this post. It's like saying , "I know the sky is blue, but I don't want it to be blue because I hate blue, so instead I will convince myself it is red." No one wants Eli to fail ever. These are just objective thoughts on our QB position.

will not allow the jury to be out on him. I thought he had turned the proverbial corner this year, and for me makes these past 3 games that much more painful.

Nothing will EVER reduce my enjoyment of 2007, but thus far it is an outlier for Eli and the team. I know I am not smart enough to properly evaluate any football player, let alone a QB where there is so much nuance to the performance.

I know there is alot about Eli I like, and alot that frustrates the heck out of me.

I will say this: I think BBI as a whole would have a very different opinion of him if he was on another team.

Eli's contract was very fortunate timing on his part and unfortunate timing on the teams part. A recent SB MVP in which his play was absolutely a key factor, and a season in which he appeared to take a big step forward in consistency, made re-signing him a no-brainer and there was no alternative. It was his turn to get paid, and he did.

I can't agree with you at all there. Eli has had an ass load of talent around him for the most part. Not many teams have had CLOSE to the running game we have, the offensive line, a receiver like Burress, Shockey at TE, etc., etc. Garrard for example has NEVER had a #1 receiver. Not even close. Look at the guys in New Orleans. Colston was hurt most of last year and Brees still dominated. No one is saying Eli sucks, but people here think he is much better than he is. He's average, very inconsistent and struggles with basics. You can't be effective if you aren't accurate. I can't stand the whole "wind" argument either. It seems that in the games that Eli has been affected by "wind", the opposing QB had no problems. He'll even tell you himself it isn't wind.

How can anyone know whether Eli would not be better or more consistent any where else, or that any of those other QBs would fare better here? I mean everyone thought that Orton and Cutler would go quite differently then it has so far this year but yet the reality is Orton is playing well and Cutler isn't. There are so many factors affecting the numbers, that the only ones that matter is the wins. Since eli has been here we have won more than we have lost. I'll take that over the Dave Brown, Danny K. days anytime.

a group of young, unproven receivers, and a QB who is struggling. Yet all anyone wants to do is blame the QB. For all we know the downturn in his performance could be do to opposing teams scouting what our young WRs do and taking it away. Offense is a team thing; line, receivers, running game, QB.

To me the story is the lack of defense. When you get behind that much, that fast, it changes the way your offense can operate. We are averaging 20 pts a game over the past 3, that should be enough. We will need to score 45 pts a game to win if things don't change.

This losing streak is just turning into a way for a minority of posters who don't like Eli to use him as the sole excuse. Eli does not play D and Eli does not give up pts on every possesion the Saints and Eagles have in the 1st half.

you are correct in that it is ultimately about winning. Anyone here would have to agree that he is the best Giants QB since Phil Simms. The guys before Collins were all hot garbage, we all know that. However, I don't see how you can compare a journeyman like Danny Kanell to Eli Manning. What did we give up to obtain Kanell? There are a lot of ways to look at it. Me personally, I can be honest. IMHO (and I stress that) if Eli Manning was on another team, I would be licking my chops each week we played against him. Much like many of my friends do who are fans of other teams. I don't know a single fan of another team that respects him at all. Eli is a great kid and he does everything the organization asks him to do and then some, but he is what he is. Far too inconsistent.

I could just as easily point to the offensive system that Brees is in and say that the lost of Colston is mitigated by the system. When you have so many guys running free it only maximizes a QB who is already accurate. What kind of routes are there athletes running, as oppose to ours? My point is we are so focus on how average Eli is, as opposed to why the offense is out of sync? Why are teams jumping routes and anticipating our plays so well? why is our running game getting stifled? Why is clock management such a big issue for us?

I don't hate Eli BUT he has open receivers and misses them too often.

What do your eyes tell you? If you take off the rose colored glasses.

Eli is almost certainly the least accurate QB in the league. When he's on, his accuracy is good (rarely pinpoint, but certainly good enough to turn in great performances). His other positive traits, and the fact that he's on a superb team, have allowed him to succeed here. And in fact allowed us to win a Super Bowl, which we're all most grateful for. But here we are, 1.5 years removed from that SB, having the same discussions we had up until week 17 of '07. We're in 3rd place now largely because our opponents had QBs that were able to carve up our defense while our QB was throwing balls to the opposing defenders. Maybe we'll recover. Maybe not.

Why post this? Has nothing to do with relishing pointing out Eli's flaws (although I do enjoy posting hard factual evidence that contradicts the assinine assertions about his fabulosity that I often see here). It's because a) I'm fucking pissed off that we're getting outgunned and losing games because the other guys have better QB play. And b) cause I had some time to monkey around PFR stats and found one so revealing, that so perfectly encapsulates the problem we have with Eli, that I thought others might find it interesting. Cause you know this is football discussion board.

The funny thing is, it was not to long ago (including the cowboy game this year), that Eli has made many teams pay for underestimating him. So let the those fans lick their chops and hope to play him every week.

it always comes back to eli, doesn't it

getting open this season? If you watch the games closely and rewatch them, you will see that our receivers are doing a great job getting separation. The first 5 games against the JV teams, Eli was hitting them, he was accurate and was playing at an MVP level. I even wrote in to Eric to exclaim that I should eat crow for my constant criticism of our QB. The past 3 games the receivers have also been getting open, it just looks like they aren't because the throws are high and/or behind the receivers. He is missing open receivers. These are throws that he has to make. An NFL QB who is an overall #1 pick in his 6th year should be making those throws in his sleep.

In response to the other poster about issues with the team, I couldn't agree more, it is not only about the QB. This thread was about the QB. The defense has been atrocious.

Most people ae able to have multimple thoughts and ideas.

This particular thread is about Eli. There are others that discuss the lousy Defense (very good ones in fact).

"Eli is almost certainly the least accurate QB in the league."

Thanks for the laugh!!! Bahahahahahaha omg lolorlrolrolrorlor

than Jamarcus Russell or Vince Young? I wouldn't go that far at all. He's definitely got issues, but they aren't that bad.

My eyes see the same as you. Yes the Qb throws the ball and yes it is intercepted. Our differences lie in that you think the problem is manning sucks or is average, I think the problem is our systems is predictable and relies to much on everyone being on the same page. My point is that before you think replacing Manning is the answer, maybe there are other factors affecting the offense and not just him.

defense posts (which is really issue #1) is probably about 4-1 Eli. We have won a SB with Eli and he's been to the Pro Bowl. That tells me he can get it done if things are clicking correctly. I'm not saying he is the best in the league, but he is top 10. People who say he's the worst, or the most inaccurate, are just stirring the pot. On defense though, I have never seen Sheridan have any success and the talent level there (except for the front line) will never be call Pro Bowl level.

The most disheartening thing to me was after we scored to close to 16-7 the defense took exactly 1 play to give it all back. It seems that the opposing offenses know exactly how to beat us.

I appeared that, after the SB run, Eli had tuned the corner in consistently performing better. Until the last 3 games, he had been consistently good over the last year and a half. What change?

Oh yeah, he hurt his foot. How much of an impact has that had, if any? We don't know, but it has to be added into the equation.

What LG said. And I also think you're leaving QB play out of the equation on our defense. Our defense sucked. SUCKED. BUT the opposing QB's made them pay for every mistake and some that weren't even mistakes because they were generally placing the ball precisely, as in a spot the size of a bushel basket. How do you think we'd have fared if Brees put 1 out of 10 throws in a bushel basket, 5 out of 10 in the general vicinity, and 4 out of 10 in another zip code? And if while he was doing that our QB was putting 1/2 his passes in a bushel basket and the rest in the general vicinity. Much different outcome. Maybe not a win, but a game. Certainly we beat AZ, and probably one of the two debacles.

Cause I don't know what else could be making you laugh. Who's less accurate?

on the miss to Moss the ball is thrown as if he is expecting an out or fade into the endzone, Moss is running a go. I and no one here nows what the call was, until one of the coaches or palyers reveals it.

To be clear, I do not disagree with anything you just wrote.

The defense is a nightmare. And Eli has been putrid. Both are true.
I also believe (I really hope this doesn't make Barilko cry) that the coaching is a big part of the problem.

I agree - Jamarcus Russel is the least accurate QB in the league. Wasn't thinking about Young but I guess he's a starter now. Haven't seen him in a while so can't comment. Then comes Eli.

and some others here who have a hard on for belittling Eli any fucking chance you get. So please, point out that those of us who have the nerve to say that Eli is a very good QB in a bit of a slump, are chugging his semen--that's fine.

But the reality is there are a few of you who are much further out on the fringes with your Eli-hate. And it clearly clouds what you are watching.

you may be correct but the coaches can't throw the ball to open receivers.

are they open at the right time in the progression and in the right place?

True. Like most things in life, the answer is not black or white but rather lies in some combination of the various factors.

if we had Brees we would be scoring 40 pts per game.

My understanding is after the first couple of games teams started doubling Smith (remember how he was dominant). This took him out and relied on man-to-man on everyone else. So now we have a safety up to top the run and short stuff, and the other safety rolling towards Smith. They are completely relying on MM/Hixon to beat them. So far I haven't seen it consistently. Hopefully Nicks can do it.

On any pass route that falls incomplete it seems there is a large faction who automatically blames Eli with no facts. The pass is incomplete, so it mus be the Qb not the WR.

I watched Ryan and Brees last night. Ryan didn't look any better than Eli, he was just throwing them up and the Wrs were making plays. Brees is very good, but also has WRs who are catching contested balls. Outside of Nicks, all I see are guys who catch things when they are open (and with the route running that isn't often). Burris caught contested balls.

The nfl QB rating is a piece of junk from a statistical standpoint. The guy below actually uses statistical methods to rate QBs (caveat, the model is not disclosed). Look out, we're facing #3 this Sunday.
NFL QB Rating Blog - ( New Window )

You make valid points. I think what it comes down to is what each fan's expectation level is. We all have different expectations. That's what makes us passionate fans. I, for one, openly admit that I have never thought very highly of Eli Manning's ability. However, I love this team and will always cheer for him and the entire team to have success. I even own an Eli Manning jersey. He plays for us and he is the guy. However, it doesn't change how I feel with respect to what I expect of him, given his draft status and what we sacrificed to get him. IMHO, he should be better. Much better. In no way, shape or form do I hate the guy or wish him to fail.

I have read on BBI. Yes, Eli struggles at times with his accuracy, but he is 'almost certainly" the least accurate QB in the league? Have you seen Jamarcus Russell play? Derek Anderson? Josh Johnson? Matt Cassel? Kerry Collins? Hell, even Matt Hasselback has a lower completion %!

You talk about many of us with "rose-colored glasses", yet you make absurd statements like that. You don't like Eli, fine, but don't be surprised when people defend him.

Even after 3 poor games, Eli has completed 58% of his passes. That's not great, but the Giants throw more intermediate to deep routes than most teams, and he's working with a corps of new WR's.

And of the WR's getting seperation, that's not entirely true. I think many of them have struggled over the last few games at getting seperation, and even if they are getting it, do we know if they're where El expects them to be?

As Paterson Plank so aptly stated, there's a lot that goes into what is defined as QB play. Eli has an entirely new group of WR's, te most experienced being in his 3rd year (and that includes his TE!). If you didn't expectsome hiccups, I think it is you who are wearing rose-colored glasses.

between "sucking" and "elite" and that Eli is somewhere in that canyon does not make one a "hater" ... except on BBI.

That is a good point about WR fighting for the ball. Other than Steve Smith, there has not been another receiver to step up get a ball that is contested. That interception in the end zone of the saints game still pisses me off, because Hixon should of had that ball. Even Collingsworth said you have to get that ball. By no means has Eli play been perfect but I think the last 3 games are bigger then a problem with the QB. We are getting baited into checks and audibles and teams are jumping routes and going after the run like they know where we are going. Our guys on offense (line, receivers, backs) need to start out executing these guys or the QB has no chance.

Well saying Eli is the least accurate QB in the league, kind of makes you a hater.

nyblue - Nicks?

I would like to play him more but I am not the coach. I think alot of the youg guys need to get in the game on offense and defense. Khel, Beckum, Nicks are all guys I would love to have play more at this point.

is a very solid NFL starter. He reminds me of Simms more and more. Simms was a winner and a leader (like Eli), but could play poorly when pressured by solid Defenses (like Eli). I remember the Rams playoff game in '89 when Simms played a poor game, similar to Eli vs. the Eagles in last year's playoffs. I also remember Pasadena and Glendale.

Eli is not Peyton and never will be. But he is the best we've had since Simms. We need to live with some roller coaster performances. Hopefully the coaching staff will simplify the offensive game plan this week. I think you would see Eli bounce back if they do.

and I agree that he is what he is but I disagree with the notion that Eli has to have a QBR above 100 to be considered as having played a good game. He's just not required to put up those numbers on this team all the time.

Take opening day this year for example - Eli was excellent but didn't have a QBR of 100. Eli is about winning, and if winning means throwing the ball early (or away) to avoid sacks then Eli will do it. That's just an example. Eli also sets up the run game beautifully - but that doesn't get measured either.

What I'm suggesting is that Eli does things to help us win that don't show up in that stat, and considering Eli's win loss record doesn't seem to jibe with HBarts metrics I seem to have a point. Either that or we win in spite of Eli - as HBart suggests.

You said, "... I think the last 3 games are bigger then a problem with the QB. We are getting baited into checks and audibles and teams are jumping routes ...".

Who is included in the "we" that is getting baited into checks and audibles?

QBR is a fine stat with some issues. Calling it junk doesn't make it so. The correlation between guys who most people outside of BBI consider excellent and QBR is quite high.

Looking at his model, I sort of like it. It takes out completion %, which doesn't make sense. His logic probably is that YPA overrides that, which is true to an extent, and that by including % you're double counting. I agree, again to an extent. However, incomplete passes are - downs and given 2 equal YPAs a higher completion % would be much more desirable. Completion % matters. The weighting is up for debate.

He gives TD% only nominal weight. I'm fine with that, although its pretty funny since the leader of the BBI Eli fellater club for years averred that the only stat that matter for QBs was TDs (which Eli rated very highly in, although not TD% which Eli didn't rate highly in).

He takes into account opponent, which is great. Absolutely wonderful. A key component. In fact, I imagine that based on that Eli would rise up in a comparison similar to mine such that his actual rank would be more indicative of his actual quality. I'd imagine his good/bad game ratio in that respect would improve to solidly average, probably the high side of it.

to the NY foot ball Giants. However as a fan of many years at times the reference of we becomes a norm. I don't think of myself as NFL player in any way, trust me.

Comically terrible thread

Having read it again, I now understand what you are getting at the we is the Eli and the coaches, the line, the backs, WR on offense. On defense it is Pierce, the coaches, the line, the DBS.

How many times has a WR run the wrong route because he checked into something that's not there?

really Eli on offense?

for this thread....Where was this kind of post 3 games ago?

How many of those 'crap' games came during 04 when he lost 6 games in a row before finally beating Dallas for his first win? Probably all 6 of them...How many were during his first full season as a starter in 05? You mean a young quarterback actually struggled early in his career in the NFL? Wow, have never seen that before....Just because he has had 3 bad games doesn't mean Eli has all of a sudden reverted to his 04, 05 or even 06 form...As much as it seems some people would like it to mean that to 'validate' their own opinion

The bottom line is that Eli played at an elite level at the end of the 07 season throughout the playoffs, culminating in the Super Bowl MVP award....He then followed that up with an excellent Pro Bowl 08 season...He then had an elite start to his 09 season...And now he's had a horrible 3 games in a row that may be effected by a foot injury

as an argument to why he is so successful as the Giants qb is counter intuitive. If the team is talented enough to win often without exceptional qb play, you are admitting a diminished role for the qb on the team, thus based on your argument Eli is not as important as some on BBI will lead you to believe.

In my opinion what defines elite qb play is the ability to either lead a team to victory or at least keep it close even when the rest of the team is collapsing. Again, in my opinion, Eli tends to sink with the rest of the ship, as shown by the stats, about half the time, which seems to be too much for an "elite" qb. Clearly the D needs fixing, but Eli can play much better too.

As for planks argument about the D putting the O in bad places, as I mentioned in another thread, the O is to blame for half the points in the first 4 minutes of the Eagles game, which helped put the team in a bad position just as much as the D did. Also, if you watched the game, the Giants did not abandon the run, their game plan, or even pick up the tempo until 2 minutes left in the game regardless of their deficit. It's very frustrating to see the success that comes with the Giants no-huddle offense, and then to see them never use it unless there is less than 2 minutes left in a game.

I should have said that the NFL QB rating was formulated without the benefit of rigorous statistical methods. You call this flawed, I call it junk.

yes, I agree with much of what you said. I don't think HBart is saying he has to have a QB rating above 100 to be successful. One thing you point out that I actually don't agree completely with is how Eli would do things such as throw the ball away. I could care less if Eli had a rating over 100. The main thing is about decision making and protecting the ball. Both of which he does poorly. Even in games where he plays well. Last season he had only 10 picks, but if you watched all of the games, he was fortunate to not have close to double that amount. Many passes were simply dropped by defensive backs. He still throws the ball into coverage often. I've seen Eli throw it away about 2 or 3 times this season. That's 2 or 3 times more than I have seen him do it the in his career. The REALLY big issue I have is the high throws over the middle. Everyone knows that throwing high over the middle in the NFL is an instant turnover. In last week's game, when the Eagles scored on the blown coverage and the Giants got the ball back, I said, "here comes the force and the high throw over the middle which will be picked." It happened on the very next play. I've seen him do that too many times in his 6 years. Eli is capable of fantastic performances. It's the inconsistency of his performances which is a killer for this team.

The correlation between winning and QBR is quite high, and the correlation between QBR and non-BBI subjectively highly rated QBs is high (assuming statistically relevant differences and sufficient sample size), where is the issue with the stat?

3 games ago you could make the guarded case that Eli had put his inconsistency issues - which stand between us and success as last years playoff game shows - behind him. Now you can't. The timing is appropriate.

so we have something to remember the Anti-Eli Brigade by when they fade back into the woodwork after the next Super Bowl victory.

then an incompletion is thrown. How do we know if the WR didn't change to the right route or read, or if Eli missed him? we don't, but the team and coaches do.

Also Eli gets picked off on a short slant, how do we know if its a bad pass or if it was the WR's responsiblity to get in front of the DB and "get to the spot". In this instance the QB as no choice but to throw at the break (to get the ball there in time), so after that it could be just a WR getting beat by the DB physically. Again we don't know but the team and coaches do.

On a flag route the ball is completed but out of bounds. Is it a bad pass by Manning to draw the WR out of bounds, or is it a lousy route run by the WR which left the QB no space to throw? We don't know (again the coaches will), but I can tell you there is no way for a QB to judge in 1 second if a WR is 5 yds or 10 yds from the sideline. Its the same philospohy as a WR who needs 10 yds for a first down but cuts off the route at 9 yds. Thats on the WR.

Anyone who blindly blames the QB is biased in my opinion. Especially in this offense there are a lot of moving parts.

Posts like yours make absolutely no sense to me.

I can understand not agreeing with everything HBart has put out there (I don't), but to read this thread and then post what you just did is like Twilight Zone kind of stuff.

until we had to have the guys coming on to act like they are better than everyone else by saying "you all hate our QB." You can't have an objective opinion here.

I won't fade away, I'll be here as I always am. Hopefully we'll see that day, but we won't with this level of QB play.

namely Eli's foot injury. Do you know what impact it has had? That, and you can't overlook the fact that his WR corps is very green. As I mentiond earlier, if you didn't expect hiccups, you're the one wearing ros-colored glasses.

And do you still wnt to make that laughable claim that Eli is "almst certainly" the least accurate QB in the league? That statemente alone egs for you not to be taken seriously.

Regular Season Points Scored and NFL Offensive Ranking:

Post Simms, Pre Eli Regular Season

Quote:

1991 Scored 281 points (17.6/g), 19th of 28 in the NFL. 1992 Scored 306 points (19.1/g), 13th of 28 in the NFL. 1993 Scored 288 points (18.0/g), 18th of 28 in the NFL. 1994 Scored 279 points (17.4/g), 22nd of 28 in the NFL. 1995 Scored 290 points (18.1/g), 24th of 30 in the NFL. 1996 Scored 242 points (15.1/g), 28th of 30 in the NFL. 1997 Scored 307 points (19.2/g), 21st of 30 in the NFL. 1998 Scored 287 points (17.9/g), 23rd of 30 in the NFL. 1999 Scored 299 points (18.7/g), 20th of 31 in the NFL. 2000 Scored 328 points (20.5/g), 15th of 31 in the NFL. 2001 Scored 294 points (18.4/g), 21st of 31 in the NFL. 2002 Scored 320 points (20.0/g), 22nd of 32 in the NFL. 2003 Scored 243 points (15.2/g), 30th of 32 in the NFL.

Eli Era Regular Season

Quote:

2004 (I am including this just to be complete) Scored 303 points (18.9/g), 22nd of 32 in the NFL. 2005 Scored 422 points (26.4/g), 3rd of 32 in the NFL. 2006 Scored 355 points (22.2/g), 11th of 32 in the NFL. 2007 Scored 373 points (23.3/g), 14th of 32 in the NFL. 2008 Scored 427 points (26.7/g), 3rd of 32 in the NFL. 2009 (Through 8 games) Scored 212 points (26.5/g), 9th of 32 in the NFL.

1991-2003 Regular Season Points Scored and NFL Offensive Ranking Avg:

Quote:

289.13 Average points scored per season 18.1 Average points scored per game 21st Average NFL Ranking in terms of scoring

2004-Present Regular Season Points Scored and NFL Offensive Ranking Avg:

Quote:

380 Average points scored per season 26.18 Average points scored per game 13th Average NFL Ranking in terms of scoring

A difference of

Quote:

90.7 more points per season, on average 8.08 more points per game, on average

Things that NEVER happened in the 13 years between Simms and Eli:

The Giants NEVER scored more than 400 points in a season. They've done it twice in Eli's 4 years prior to this one, and they are on pace to do it a 3rd time this year.

The Giants, since Eli has been here, have NEVER scored under 300 points in a season. In the 13 season prior, they only broke 300 points 4 times.

The Giants NEVER averaged more than 20 points per game during that time period. They hit 20 twice. Once in the Superbowl run of 2000, and once in 2002. Never broke it. Since Eli has been a starter in 2005, the Giants have NEVER averaged under 23 points. As a matter of fact, except for 2007, they've never averaged under 25 points per game.

The Giants NEVER cracked the top ten as far as points scored. As a matter of fact, they only cracked the Top 20 4 times in 13 years, and two of those years they were 18 and 19, with an average scoring ranking of 21st in the league. The Giants after Eli have been 3rd in scoring twice, and they are currently 9th. Every year but 2004 and 2006, they were in the top 15, 3 times in the top 10, twice in the Top 5.

Overall Regular Season Record 1990-2003

103-94-1 A winning percentage of .497

Overall Regular Season Record 2004-Present

52-36 A winning percentage of .591

the foot injury 3 weeks ago. Ignore the separated shoulder that he played through in 07...ignore everything that could be a possible explanation for Eli's poor games.

These threads are fuckin' ponderous. And I do think some of you enjoy when "Eli proves you're right..." it's been that way since day one.

You have a right to be whatever kind of fan you want...but it must be a miserable existence when you're looking for every possible angle to slag the QB...the QB who's got one Super Bowl MVP in the bank already, and frankly, the QB who's going to be the QB for most of if not all of the next decade.

they don't show that Eli sucks.

He'd rather use a stat he admits is flawed. That says it all about his motivation. He's hated Eli from day one, and that's a fact.

statement?????


'Eli is almost certainly the least accurate QB in the league'


What a load of shit. It's a little disturbing how eagerly you've been waiting to post all this shit.

We were having some good Eli talks weeks 1-5, plenty of criticisms.

Now we're back to statements like that? You're a much better poster than that

An accurate summary, imv.

is not an excuse in my opinion, if Eli and the coaches are saying its not. The ball (except for few plays) is not that far off on where it needs to be. This offense and the QB are out of sync on so many levels. A big part of the problem, I beleive, is the fact that defenses seem to have the book on us and our QB. Now if you are not going to move a way from your tendencies, change your scheme (too late and not really smart), or upgrade your personel, the only answer is to outexecute these defenses. Our players are playing sloppy, getting beat of the line, missing key blocks, not getting to spots on time, not being on the same page, they are not executing well at all. At least for 3 weeks that's what TC, Eli, Gilbride having been pointing as the problems. All of this has a direct effect QB play.

for Eli have been bad, no doubt about that....But to try and draw a correlation to his 1-6 start in 2004 or his first full season in 2005 or even 2006 is just as bad as the 'rose colored glasses' view of Eli

Especially when the defense has given up 40 or more points in 2 of the 3 loses we are talking about...That is a MUCH bigger concern, IMO...If you have a pretty good defense, then 20-24 points a game should be good enough to win...If not, then there are a lot bigger problems than your QB....Especially when that QB developed to the point of an elite run in 07 with the Super Bowl MVP, a Pro Bowl 2008 and then an elite start to 2009

Here's the bottom line.

If we're talking Eli and the offense, he is NOT an Elite QB. That word "elite" should be eliminated from the discussion period. He is a very good QB who has up and down stretches. Elite QB's don't have stretches like this so lets quit the madness with it..

I'm like what GiantFaninTx said, never was overwhelmed with his play but thoughtthat he was a very doo QB that will never equal up to what we traded for him. But that's OK because he is our QB.

The issue is, IMO, There are groups of people who believe it doesn't matter what we gave up for him, how he plays, what his contract is, Eli is the best thing in the world outside Peyton. If is he has erratic days, it's either the line, the WR's, pressure, or the Defense.

Then there is the other side who believes Eli is very inaccurate, streaky, and sometimes puts the team in a whole with his play and expected more out of it.

Then there is the middle group, who thinks, hey he is the QB, we will live with his ups and downw, and just hope the
defesne can pull us through. I put myself in this category because from what i've seen, if teh defesne is bad, the team is bad. I can't rememember the last time this team won a shootout, a game in which the defesne gave up alot of points and the offense put up more. I think Eli's first game against Big ben is the one I rememeber. When we have been blown out, we been blown out. The offense has not scored the matching points, Eli has not taken over a game (without tthe help of the defesne) and just scored at will..

We can sit ehre an argue about this year after year, it's not gonna change a thing. He is our QB, like him or not. The object is, making the team better. And that means getting better on defense. Because contrary to popular belief, the the Defense plays bad, we lose, period. We have not overcome that and it's always been Giants football..

week 2 against Dallas in their new house.

You should check it out, it was a good game (grin)

Romo played terrible in that game. We had 3 picks, 1 for a pick 6 and one that could have been. And it still came down to a last minute FG..

Didn't we get like 5 tunovers?..

Eli had to win in a shootout

Not sure what you mean by "this level of play". Eli's numbers from the last 30 games:

W-L: 22-8
Comp: 538
Att: 901
Comp%: 59.7
Yards: 6397
TD: 44
INT: 22
QB Rating: 87.4

Those aren't good enough for you?

especially a vertical threat to the defense. They're quick with routes and some short range RAC, but they don't threaten a defense physically nor as deep burners.

How is that even remotely true?

these are what the numbers looked like prior to this three game stretch:

W-L: 22-5
Comp: 485
Att: 794
Comp%: 61.1
Yards: 5724
TD: 43
INT: 14
QB Rating: 92.7

has nothing to do with it..Stee Smith in Carolina is a beast. Santana Moss, Lance Moore, etc..Lots of short WR's in the league..

Ok, 2 games. i'll concede the Cowboys game, even though Dallas should have score at least 45 that day..

You have anymore?

The only thing that matters is the last 4 years we went to the playofs, we are 4-3 in theose 4 years. Obviously, the 4 wins were the SB run. The losses are are what stand out. Very good teams goes deep in the playoffs every year. we had only 1 year of that.

That's the most telling stat.

Eli's foot injury. He started his slump right after he got hurt. Couple that with the pressure on him when the defense gives up a crap load of points. His only experienced WR is Steve Smith.

Eli has a lot on his plate. If he is feeling that injury, I wish he'd come clean and take a week or 2 off if necessary. He does need to perform better.

The rest of that list: Zero

Quote:

Elite QB's don't have stretches like this so lets quit the madness with it..

has stretches like this...

Every QB do not have stretches every year when they're play is supect.

Name me a Elite QB that had this..

A guy doesn't run for 34 yards, tip toes the sideling if he has a foot injury that is affecting his throws..

to do anything for a win.

2008:

Week 7: 21 of 42, 229 yards, 0 TD's, 2 picks, QBR: 46.6
Week 8: 26 of 41, 223 yards, 2 TD's, 2 picks, QBR: 73.5

2007:

Week 10: 34 of 56, 328 yards, 2 TD's, 6 picks, QBR: 49.4
Week 11: 16 of 32, 163 yards, 0 TD's, 1 pick, QBR: 52.0

I only did consecutive games, because you're talking about a "stretch", however, just look up and down the game logs, and there are multiple sub-50 QBR days for Peyton in the last two years.

Quarterbacks have, and always will have, bad games. Sometimes even two or three in a row.



Link - ( New Window )

last year played so badly he was benched.

ok...

You consider those "bad games"?..Outside of the 6 pick game, those are almost Eli's normal stats..

So, since picked out peyton, do you put Eli in Peyton's class? or Bree's, or Brady's?....You think Eli's play is comparable with those guys year in and year out?..Do youthink teams go in and game plan to try and stop Eli from neating them, or stack the box and hope Eli passes more often?

So what many here are saying about his mechanics, inaccuracy, and flat out terrible INT's are something that Elite QB's do normally?..

.

I know, he was so bad he beat us consecutive games after that benching too..

.

that great QBs can go through bad stretches and still rebound to play well.

until people that just love to shit all over Eli absorb the information...

W-L: 22-8
Comp: 538
Att: 901
Comp%: 59.7
Yards: 6397
TD: 44
INT: 22
QB Rating: 87.4


Those are very good numbers for all you stats lovers out there. Eli's been bad lately but I hope and expect Eli to snap out of it. He's done it before.

Even before Eli reached a higher level of play in 2007 he was never a bad QB, just a flawed one who found ways to win games. He has hit a wall and now people are yipping it up on threads acting like the guy has been on a 20 game skid rather 3....

As usual...middle ground is lost in the weekly Eli debates.

Eli averages about 250 - 270 a game..somewhere in that neighborhood..This year hwe is avergaing 245..How far of am I..

those are pretty bad games britt posted, and nowhere near what you see from Eli normally

I didn't say Eli was in Peyton's class. YOU said "Elite QB's don't have stretches like that". I showed you two consecutive games, in two consecutive years, where Peyton (whom I assume you consider elite) had two bad games in a row.

Secondly, Peyton's bad games are like Eli's regular stats? Ummm, back that up with some numbers please? Have you even looked at Eli's stats the past three games? They are no different than the bad games I listed for Peyton. So which is it? Are Peyton's bad games like Eli's regular stats? Or are Eli's "bad games" pretty much on par with Peyton's bad games?

That's is true, but not every year with the same issues. Isn't this the same thing we been debating for 5 years now?

yards tell me dick about a QBs performance. Did they score TDs? Did they commit any TOs? Were they converting on 3rd down?

Those tend to be the difference makers. Not the yards

After the first 5 games did Eli deserve the new contract he was given?

After the last three games does Eli deserve the contract he was given?

not twisting the augument. What you reposted on my original post was "Elite QB's do not have stretches like this. So basicaly your saying that Eli is elite and is in Peyton class.

This just like the Hixon augument, you post a bunch of stats and that's suppose to past the eye test..

Those numbers are fine on aggregate. A bit specious of course since they're carefully selected to include the 5 great games he played at the end of '07 that won us a Super Bowl. He played magnificently in those games. That he's capable of that at times is not up for debate (certainly not by me anyway).

If you use a more rational split of time - last season, and this season to date, including playoffs, you see 7 fine games, 5 crap games.

But you know, I guess there's no point in continuing this. It seems most of the debate here is from those who:
- consider one Super Bowl victory eternally sufficient and therefore no discussion of current or future quality of play is warranted (at least if its Eli, as I don't see many people rushing to defend Pierce's current level of play because he was instrumental in winning a SB).
- those that want to invalidate the premise that a QB can be measured in any way by stats, in which case no stat based discussion is warranted
- those that believe it is unfanly to discuss topics which judge their teams players poorly (at least if its Eli).

.

W-L: 22-8
Comp: 538
Att: 901
Comp%: 59.7
Yards: 6397
TD: 44
INT: 22
QB Rating: 87.4

Because I know some will either miss or it or ignore it.

Ok then.

My point exactly. Britt posted some stats, how do we know what the game situation was?

those stats mean what, exactly?

then what is he saying. he took my sentecnce out of context and made his statement. If he's telling me Eli is and elite QB, then I disagree.

And I've said this before this year and last year..So this isn't like i'm just cherry picking on 3 games..I know what my eyes are telling me and he is not playing very good..

Don't honestly remember last year's.

That 2 game stretch in '07 was some ugly play from peyton

that's the point, all QBs can in fact play that shitty


and if you truly believe those are Eli's stats look like after every sunday, you're reading the wrong stats

that's what he's saying

I actually think the extremes are worse then you pointed out, which makes it hard to have any kind of an objective Eli thread on BBI. When we are winning Eli is the reason and the greatest thing ever and when we are losing its all his fault and he sucks.

Here is my only problem with the bash Eli threads this time around. In the past years when Eli was playing this shitty or slumping, the defense was decent and for the most part the rest of the team was. However, lately the whole teams seems to be lost. We can't stop anyone on D and everyone seems to be turning the ball over.

Lately, for us to win Eli would have to play lights out and take the game to a shoot out. I think the scores would of been much worse in these games if the other teams didn't tend to pull up a little towards the end.

30 games is a pretty good sample size. Eli has played very well while leading the Giants to a lot of big wins. He has sucked the last 3 games but based on the numbers posted, is likely to snap out of this funk. I think the stats mean something.

wasn't 07 the year the Peyton was hurt during the offseason and had surgey?..Not sure..

But Ok, if we're gonna play this game in omcparing Peyton's and Eli "stats" how many 300 + games has Peyton enginered. How about sacks taken, TD's per season, Red Zone success, etc..

We can play this game all day..

I'm not arguing against that. peyton is lightyears ahead of everyone not named Brady. Those two are on a level all by themselves.

But Eli ain't bad, and he can at times be excellent.

thank you for reading my post. It seesm some others just cherry picked out one thing and ran with it..

I agree that there are times that when we play badly, alot of posters come out of the woodworks and start the very extreme Eli threads. And i know me and you have talked about this since probably he was drafted. My positon has never changed on him. Wait, take that back, I did feel alot more comfortable with him last year up unitl Plax went out.

You said that no Elite QB has a stretch of bad games like Eli has had, and GMENLTS shows you two separate situations where Peyton (who is definitely considered elite) has had back-to-back games like this. To me that invalidates your point.

All QBs have issues because at times because it is a complex position. If others are faltering it affects the QB play, so sometimes these slumps are the QB's fault and somtimes they are not. Look at Big Ben last year, he had a 4 Int game right before the Steelers started their playoff run. The QB has to throw it well, the WRs have to be where they are supposed to and catch it, the line needs to block, and the team needs to pick up blitzes and other scheme adjustments. You can not say this is all Eli's fault, its a team issue (on defense too).

I can't take credit

That's my point. If we look at my post on this thread, i made the augment as such. Ijust said that Eli is not an Elite QB..and what happend from there morphed into Peyton stats. That shouldn't have even been in the debate..

you made the claim that elite QBs don't have shitty stretches.

That's where the debate began

I have never ever said this was Eli fault. From the begining of the season, and i have stated this many times, that i had concerns with a new DC, the young secondary and WR corps, and lack of veteran presence in critical areas.

This thread, however, is on Eli and I am just voiving my opinion on him

showing me stats of Peyton's game means nothing. Unless we've seen the game, we have no idea whether it was bad weather, WR's dropping the balls, etc..

I remember them pretty clearly.

Peyton was straight ugly.


Elite QBs have bad stretches, that really is the truth, it happens. Now whether Eli is elite or not is a completely different debate. The former is true, the latter I'm not yet willing to argue until Eli leads us to another ring in january and february.

Ok see your point, but ilook at those stats form Peyton and look at the bad games from ELI, no comparison.

Maybe I strectched my statement by saying elite qb's don not have stretches like this, but on a wide arcing basis, we get this from Eli every year and it just drives me nuts how this guy can play that way at times..

You're considering a 73.5QBR game a terrible one? By Peyton's standards, sure. I wouldn't consider it crap by mortal NFL QB standards. Given the nature of QBR I only used pretty extreme numbers where (I thought) even those who dislike the stat couldn't argue with its relevance to fine/crap play and winning/losing.

I's say Payton had really only had one bad 2 game stretch in his career. Which is pretty mind-boggling.

You did get me thinking though so I checked out the win/loss % of games when the QB threw at least 15 passes and had a QBR in the 70s. Turns out you lose 62% of the time, which seems about right to me.

FWIW, Eli's had 13 games with QBR in the 70s since 2005, the most in the league - with a record of 7-6 in those games.

anyone is arguing that Eli was not that great in his first full season in 2005 or even in 2006 or most of 2007...He seemed to take that next step during the playoffs in 2007 and then followed it up with an outstanding 2008 and an excellent first 5 games of 2009...A normal progression for most good QBs...Again, his last 3 games have been bad...Not sure how much you want to keep beating that drum when it's that obvious

And Peyton Manning may be the greatest QB of all time...It's tough to compare any QB to Peyton Manning

that everyone pretty much agrees Eli is not "elite" meaning consistently excellent - Brady, Peyton, Brees level.

So, then it comes down to whether he's "Very Good," "Good," or "Average." We'll you'd have to define those and put some criteria to them, but HBart has pretty clearly pointed out that if "Very Good" means having a lot more excellent passing days than crappy ones, he's probably not "Very Good" either. He's closer to good to average. What we need from Eli is consistently very good football. No QB will be perfect, but we need a lot more "good to excellent" games than "average to poor" ones.

This team has a lot more money put into the offense than Giants teams of the past, and certainly a lot more locked up in a QB now. Reese said over the off-season, Eli's a vet now, we need him to perform like one and raise the level of play of those around him. The last 3 games he's not done that, and with an ailing defense if he doesn't play very good football we have no chance. If he's going to throw 2 INTs a game and miss open guys deep, we're done for.

2 of the 3 losses that helped this whole thread/debate come about are games in which the opponents scored 40 or more points...Eli is not exactly in the best position to succeed when the GMen are down 20+ points before you can blink an eye, like the Saints and Eagles games

You would think that most Giants fans would be more concerned with that sieve of a defense considering the fact that defense has been the heart and soul of the Giants since forever

you summed up my thoughts almost word for word. I mentioned basically the same thing. The number of crafests that he tosses out there are seemingly split down the middle with the good to solid performances. Like I said earlier, he's decent, but in my mind, he's not good enough. 3 draft picks, and a 100 million dollar contract. He should be more consistent. That part of his game has not improved.

NYMase - you are right, however, at least some of the defenses issues come from the fact that they have had to defend a short field (due to an INT or fumble) or b/c our offense is giving them a chance to rest in between series.

I think so many giant fans who hate manning are just like eagle fans who hate mcnabb. Both QBs are in the upper tier of QBs and produce wins, but there will always be a section of fans for each team that blames/undervalue these guys, because the teams could not perform. Well I hope we start winning from here on out.

Interesting comment. Kind of goes to my feeling that BBI would have a very different opinion of Eli if he wasn't our QB.

Generally speaking, most BBIers will tell you that McNabb stinks. Many of the same folks who proclaim loudly that Eli can do no wrong.

No more specious than the timing of this thread, right after the worst three game stretch of the past two seasons.

And your comment that Eli is capable of playing "magnificently" "at times" is a actually a major concession and sign of real progress in this debate. Prior to the Super Bowl run you made it quite clear you didn't think he had even that in him.

The timing of the thread isn't specious - its relevant. Posting cherrypicked stats to try and prove a point is specious. I don't do that.

you disappear for weeks at a time when Eli is playing well. And you come back with these kind of threads when there is a slump. Its all too convenient.

I thought this would be the year where he started hot and didn't self-destruct. In fairness, I think that almost every year. And I end up being proven wrong time after time. I thought he looked different this year -- more comfortable, more "in command" -- but it's really the same old Eli. And now we're back to praying that we get Good Eli and avoid Evil Eli every Sunday.

Almost everywhere I go in the real world, I'm considered a bit of an Eli apologist. On BBI, when I offer the same opinion, I'm considered an Eli basher. It's a strange place, this BBI when it comes to Eli. There's something resembling a consensus about Eli Manning everywhere else, but around here there are about 100 people who seem to insist that he's some great player.

I do have to say that it was fun when we were allowed to use stats to discuss QB performance though. That was a great five week period. I remember prior to 2004, when it was acceptable to use stats when assessing QBs. Then from 2004 through September of 2009, stats were meaningless and completely misleading. Then for five weeks people actually using stats like QBR and even YPA when talking about QBs. That was refreshing.

Now of course we're back to the old state of affairs where things like "playing in New York" and "throwing the ball away" are used to obscure the performance of QBs.

On the whole, Eli Manning is a rare bird of a QB. On the whole, he's OK by any measurement. But the composition of that "OK" is far different than most of his peers in that class. Sometimes outstanding. Sometimes ridiculously bad. Capable of almost single-handedly winning or losing games on a regular basis. And there's almost nothing to explain or predict these outrageously large swings in performance.

Even with great pass protection and a good running game, he can suck.

Even with poor pass protection and no running game, he can be great.

He can suck in dome. He can be great in the freezing cold.

He can suck for most of a game and then come alive at the end to lead a dramatic game-winning drive. He can also suck in the beginning and still suck at the end.

Eli Manning gives us hope because he can play like the best QB in the league, like he did against Dallas, like he did during the 2007 playoffs.

Eli Manning gives us fear because he can play like one of the worst QBs in the league (barring the absolute dregs), like he did in the last three games, like he did the playoffs last year.

In the end, if you're going to have a QB of his caliber, you're probably better of with one like him -- with such wild erratic swings. At least when you get lucky and his great games coincide with the team's big games, he can put the team on his back and take them somewhere special. Of course it would be a lot better if he didn't throw so many terrible games in the mix.

What will we get this week? Who knows? Could be awesome. Could continue the self-destruction. We just have to hope that the good one shows up.

What door number do you choose?

and not under 70? Might it be because Eli has 14 career games with a passer rating between 60-69?

Really great.

Joe, I chose 60 because I thought it was unambiguously crappy; I can think of some games with a QBR in the 60s that I personally wouldn't consider all that bad. Not sure what your implication is.

However, if you want to reset the crap criteria to games with a QBR of 70 or lower, here are the leaders in crap games since 2005:

Eli Manning 28
Brett Favre 26
Matt Hasselbeck 19
Joey Harrington 18
Alex Smith 18
Drew Brees 17
Jake Delhomme 17
Marc Bulger 16
Kerry Collins 16
Philip Rivers 16
Derek Anderson 15
Gus Frerotte 15
Rex Grossman 15
Jon Kitna 15
J.P. Losman 15
Vince Young 15
Trent Green 14
Ben Roethlisberger 14
Michael Vick 14

Jerry's post is a good one.

Only difference between Jerry's thinking and mine is I'm always optimistic that the good Eli will show up.

The rest of this season means a great deal, fortunately, as accurate as the book on Eli is as described by jerry above, the book is not yet finished.

.

I strongly agree. Eli is Eli and while I'm dissappointed in his play I'm really disappointed in the play of the D. I thought they might struggle somewhat in the beginning, but there is way to much talent for them to suck this bad. This is beginning to be historically bad.

The giants have to do something about the quarterback position, and fast.

.

I think Jerry's take on this thread is the closest to reality.

said what i've been trying to say for years..Only thing is, maybe I don't articulate myself very well. Or, any criticism of Eli, conctructive or even an hint of placing blame on him is met with the "Anti-Eli, Eli-bashing, and a barrage of stats, numbers, etc. to prove otherwise..

Good thread and interesting stats. What do you think the Giants record would be if his brother was our quarterback? I say 7-1. I can always dream,right?

There are those that hated Eli from day one, on this board. They didn't want him in the draft, they didn't like the way it was handled, they didn't like what was given up for him. Therefore, they liked to say "I told you so" at every turn when he played badly, and he played badly A TON that first year.

The second year, he started to improve. Those posts decreased in volume, and people started to get excited. When Eli regressed, the posts came back en masse, from the same people.

This cycle repeated itself quite a bit. When Eli was successful, the posters that didn't like him didn't post. When he had a bad game or two, or three or four, they'd come back.

When Eli went on that Superbowl run, some of them didn't post for months afterwards. You'd almost think that Eli's performance during that time ruined their enjoyment of the Giants Superbowl win.

That being said, I think the overwhelming Eli support, is a product of all the Eli bashing that occured over the years.

Because posters on this board took extreme measures at every turn to try and tell us how bad he was, people felt the need to go overboard in their defense of him to counter it.

If people would just see it for what it is, instead of black and white, things would be a lot better.

Since Eli has been here, we've won more games and scored more points than we have in 15 years. Is he responsible for all of that? No. Is he solely responsible for the losses? No. He is a big part of our team, and so far, in only five years, we've won a Superbowl with him. We have the talent on this team to win more.

So bash away at him, but don't get pissed off when people go out of their way to defend him when you do. And remember, you created the overwhelming Eli Defense Brigade.

I think when the Giants lose, and Eli has a bad game, we can all acknowledge that w/out the constant "I told you so's" that seem to accompany the loss. If you're going to do that, then you should earn that right by coming out and posting stats about how he is when he plays great and wins.

A lot of the posters doing it are just fishing for an argument anyways.

That's a very emotional post with no basis in fact.

It is what it is.

You, Britt, actually believe people stopped posting on BBI because they were somehow upset that Eli led us to a SB win?

You believe that, right? That's your position?

No offense, but that sounds like a augment that FilmGiant makes when political threads were allowed. he always said he was over-compensating for the extreme left wing poster or posted over the top and he was compelled to go over the top to counter them..

Anyway, i think your post is a little to extreme. There aren't many posters that "hate" Eli. I think it has alot more to do with, considering what we gave up, they expected a lot more than what they seen. I know, I know, we won a SB. But people want more.

If you were to look back after the SB, there was talk about him going to the HoF, winning 3 or 4 more titles (still a possibility), putting him #2 QB in the league behind peyton, etc..

Bottom linbe, people want consistency, They don't want this Good Eli, bad Eli stuff..What Jerry sposted yesterday was very true. Just when we thought he turned the corner with the jekyll and hyde stint, it rears it's ugly head..

we need Kent Graham BIG time...

just kidding

But you are all bring up great points on both sides. I said earlier that I didn't think Eli is "Elite", but he is still a decent QB in the NFL, which is saying a lot. And his career is still not even close to over so we don't know how he'll be looked at at the end.

I don't think he'll get to that ELITE status that everyone is looking for. But when you look at the big picture, we didn't draft an Akili Smith or a Joey Harrington

He'd be out of the league by now as well. Akili getting a second chance. Eli has a far far better team surrounding him than those guys had.

nothing new

There are Eli haters, although I do not think they are nearly as present as many here seem to think. And when they do post they are often ganged up on and rightfully so

There are Eli fanboys, who will have you believe that no interception he has ever thrown was ever his fault. Someone ran the wrong route, the sun was in his eyes, or something. Dissecting every mistake and putting the blame on someone else. He is the only QB who can play in NY. Everyone else would crumble here, bla bla bla

Then there are the Eli realists, who are often called haters by the Eli fanboys, for claiming that Ben is a better QB (he is), or a select few others

He is a top 10 QB, closer to 10 than to 1, we should be happy to have him. We had to give him the contract, im glad we did.

Jerry & Joe are spot on. The very few people who puts Eli in the Peyton/Brady category (I'd include Brees) are out of their minds altogether, as are people who think he's just average or worse. He's somewhere in a very nebulous top 8 or so discussion w/ Rivers, Ben, Romo, Warner & McNabb, all of whom can also be pretty damn inconsistent @ times. As can be seen by the stats, Favre, a HOF QB, is right up there w/ Eli in the inconsistency dept., although Favre was obviously much better earlier in his career. Most Eagles fans wish McNabb would be more consistent & probably even some Dallas fans not sucking Romo's dick wish the same about Romo.

As far as his salary & draft position vs. his production THUS FAR in his career, I'd say 1 SB win in 5 years is pretty damn good. He does have the ability & the talent around him to win more. Considering Carr & no other QB on the Giants are godsends & there are no QBs of equal or better talent than Eli who will be available next year, & another team w/ far worse QBs than Eli would pay him, the Giants had little choice but to give him the contract they did regardless whether anyone thinks Eli is "elite" or not. Lots of players who were drafted very high, especially QBs, don't work out at all. Others are still great players even if they don't live up to the top billing. It makes for good discussion on a chat board, but I think it matters very little to GMs & coaches whether or not a player was worth drafting him where he was drafted or if his production isn't QUITE up to snuff w/ his salary.

that there are many posters, veterans and newbies, who use BBI as a place to vent. But if they have nothing to complain about, they don't post.

probably be labeled an Eli fanboy (to use Joe's definitions), I definitely think Big Ben and Eli are in the same group. They are roughly the same QB, the same age, and have had the same success. After Brees/Peyton/Brady then where do you go? You have Eli, Palmer, Big Ben, Rivers, McDud, Homo, and an aging Warner basically rounding out the top 10. I think arguments could be made for what the order of these players should be, but its all speculative because they all play in different circumstances. For example Rivers has it made out there in that climate and offense, much more than Big Ben and Eli (who I think have drawn the short end of the "fantasy straw").

are the month splits. Huge drop in rating with each successive month after September for Eli... with the exception of January where his rating is stellar.

Compare Eli to some of his outdoor, star QB peers:

Quote:

Manning Sept - 91 Oct - 81.8 Nov - 69.4 Dec - 68.8 Jan - 101.5 Favre Sept - 90.8 Oct - 85 Nov - 85.9 Dec - 82.3 Jan - 87.4 McNabb Sept - 90.7 Oct - 81.9 Nov - 85 Dec - 89.6 Jan - 69.7 Brady Sept - 91.4 Oct - 100 Nov - 93.2 Dec - 89.1 Jan - 78 Roethlisberger Sept - 87 Oct - 102.7 Nov - 82.2 Dec - 92 Jan - 34.1

Two things JUMP out at you.

1) Eli regresses over the course of the season - and its pronounced. This has little to do with weather (other QBs listed play outdoors in the cold/wind) or rating being flawed due to system factors (he has great numbers in the same system/offense in the same year he has bad numbers). He is the only QB listed whose numbers steadily decline in a big way after September, when he comes out hot (like he did this year).

To me, it looks (and feels) like an annual slump he falls into after teams adjust to what he is doing.

2) If you notice the January numbers, with the exception of Favre, Eli is the only QB whose numbers don't take a big dip. To the contrary, Eli's best rating is in January. Money in the playoffs - not a bad trait to have (check out Mr. 2x Superbowl Champ Roethlisberger's 34.1 rating in January. Ouch!)

Bottom line, it looks like a trend with Eli. I expect him to continue his swoon for some time and hope that the team can pick him up enough to get to the playoffs in January, where "good Eli" tends to show up..

thanks.

is 46-26 as a starter in the regular season since his rookie year and won a super bowl thanks to his efforts. He's not perfect and makes some bad decisions and inaccurate throws but he gets the job done.

I don't think your January numbers include the playoffs. Eli has a 101.5 rating in one January game.

you've been watching the last three weeks, no?

About the best that can be said for our streaky, young friend is that he went through a similar dark period in 2007 before catching fire at the end in time for the playoffs. Last year, he entered his dark period in time for the playoffs. Hopefully, he got it out of the way now and can get hot.

received a considerable boost in 2007. We've been to the playoffs 4 consecutive years, and Eli has been pretty bad in three of those years.

A question. Would any of you had been disappointed if Coughlin benched Eli for the second half of the Eagle game?

I mistook the January numbers for Playoff numbers.

Playoff numbers are below:

Quote:

Manning 77.6 Favre 85.2 Brady 88 McNabb 80.8 Roethlisberger 87.2

That changes point 2, which makes the analysis one big strike against Eli.

As a non-hater/defender of Eli, looking at the numbers, there is certainly cause for concern. He regresses after September and is rated lower than his outdoor, cold weather, star QB peers in the playoffs.

because Eli Fans are so obnoxious. But I strongly disagree with you on 2 points. He's not a top 10 QB, way too inconsistent for that. Unless you want to argue that after the top 4 or 5 the next 20 are one big lump, which on any given Sunday can appear in the top 10. The next is the contract. They needn't have made him the highest paid player in the league and give him such a long contract. He has not performed to that level. If he grows into great, but he needn't have been given that many years or guaranteed $$$. The one good thing about the contract is now it throws the salary cap out of whack for every team that has a QB in Eli's class, not to mention the ones above.

Eli throws an inaccurate high wobbly pass. Once the winds pick up that pass goes from being a little late to the spot, but catchable to being miles off target.

This is not all Eli's fault. The offense and patterns are not well designed for his skills and NYC.

that's a knock on Eli, then. The other QBs I listed face the cold/winds just the same in the fall/winter. If he's a dome QB, that doesn't do us much good.

how did you get that rating?

Here are Eli's playoff game ratings:

Carolina 06: 35.0
@ Philly 07: 85.0
@ Tampa 08: 117.1
@ Dallas 08: 132.4
@ Green Bay: 72.0 More on this one in a minute
Superbowl: 87.3
Philly 09: 40.7

Add those up and divide by 7 (number of games) and that puts his rating at 81.4

That being said, does that Green Bay game in bold jump out at anybody? Is there a better argument for how arbitrary a QBR is?

are right.

the GB game is a perfect example of flawed TD rating

I assume that's your next point

35 + 85 + 117.1 + 132.4 + 72 + 87.3 + 40.7 = 569.2

569.2 / 7 = 81.3142857

Did Eli play in some other playoff games that I'm not averaging in?

is not additive by game...you can't add QBR's by game and divide by the number of games...he may have thrown 1 pass in one game, and 40 in another.

You add up the stats from all of the games and calculate the QBR based on the totals.

Just like if a baseball player goes 1 for 1 (1.000) in a game and goes 0-4 (.000) in the next game, he's not hitting .500 on the season. He's hitting .200.

Or just go to profootballreference.com - much easier.

Nobody seems to really know what it is.

Once we have that, we can add all of his attempts, completions, TD's and interceptions over those 7 games. That's the only real way to get it.

Secondly, I think it's a bullshit stat. How do you explain the Green Bay NFC Championship game? He was magnificent that day to anybody that watched, yet he has a 72 QBR.

while I'm thinking about the playoffs.... How about his rating being dragged down in the Superbowl by his one interception?

The throw was on the money, we were driving, and it hit Smith right in the hands? What would his rating have been in that game w/out that ONE pick (which was the only one he threw in the ENTIRE playoffs)?

TD posted the number.

Player 1: 147-225, 65.3%, 1989 Yds, 8.8 YPA, 14 TD, 2 INT, 110.4 rating

Player 2: 179-273, 65.6%, 2032 Yds, 7.4 YPA, 15 TD, 4 INT, 99.9 rating

Player 1 is Aaron Rodgers, 2 is Brady. Rodgers is first in the NFL in rating, Brady 8th.

I just can't take this stat seriously. Too reliant on YPA, and it discounts sacks...Rodgers has been sacked 31 times, Brady 8. I've watched lots of Rodgers as he is my fantasy QB...he takes a lot of bad sacks.

It doesn't consider the system in which a QB is playing. Steve Young played in a much friendlier system than Phil Simms, for example.

Eli's Superbowl QBR as it stands: 87.3

I used this QBR Calculator: QBR Calculator

I put in Eli's exactly Superbowl stats, and got 82.5. So it is calibrated to the actual QBR that Eli recieved from the NFL...

Then I calculated his stats without that pick:

99.5 or 100 rounded up QBR.

The rating is flawed.

away on half of those sacks is YPA would be lower, and it would hurt his rating...but they'd be better plays.

It's a severely flawed measure, and one that I doubt coaches take seriously.

I don't think anybody could watch the NFC Championship in Green Bay, and say that Eli played at a 72.0 QBR rating that day.

you guys should have some fun with that QBR Calculator...

You'd be amazed at what adding a garbage time TD will do to somebody's rating. 20 point swings. Just like a pick will could be a 20 point downswing in the rating.

I agree on the GB game. It was a great performance and the contrast to Favre was striking. It was like Favre wanted no part of it.

to give a statistics seminar here, but it seems like only two hours ago that a post based entirely on QBR was "interesting". Now the statistic is completely flawed and meaningless.

threads, but it's appropriate here. In Simms's book he talked about checking down in practice on a play that was designed to be a deep shot to a guy that ended up being covered. Thinking he had made the smart play, he was surprised to hear Parcells rip him a new one, and ask something to the effect of "Are you concerned with your F'ing QB rating? These plays are not called to maintain your rating."

The point is, an incompletion isn't always the wrong play. We've all seen games where a couple of early deep incompletions helped open up things underneath.

In the end you've got to trust your eyes. With regards to Eli my eyes tell me he's not comfortable with what he's seeing from defenses and he's letting it affect him. He has to do a better job on that.

a whopping 1.3 percent lower than Eli's.

I never called this or any thread based on QB rating interesting.

All because Donald Driver threw Webster to the ground at the LOS.

in the blink of an eye.

How emotional.

because I've been against the QBR rating since the get-go.

Yes, I found those numbers "interesting". That doesn't mean "good". It doesn't mean "bad". It means "interesting". As in it made me want to figure it out, which I proceeded to do, and convinced myself even more that it was a poor metric.

Also, if you read a little bit above, you'd see I thought your original assessment was the closest to the truth on the thread.

(Gee I hate stats). What TD posted earlier about Eli's decline in his play the lst 4 years is right one. Nothing in the stats can tell me what I see in my own eyes..But hey you deal with it..

But i will had one things about all those stats, Eli's biggest jumps of course cam in 2007 when we won it all. That 4 game run obscures alot fo objectivity about Eli.

If someone kind, and i don't know why I am aksing this, what would be his QBR or whatever stat you guys are using if you took out 2007?

I'm not trying to be an dick, sometimes I just naturally sound that way. It's one of my many charming qualities.

.

QBR is practically useless. A garbage time TD can increase a rating by 20 points. A pick that isn't the QB's fault, or throwing the ball away to avoid a sack, can do the opposite as Terps pointed out.

If you're sick of stats, and rely on your own eyes, then I wouldn't worry about trying to figure out the QBR's. Just go with what your eyes tell you.

That's what most of us do anyways.

your eyes would tell you that Eli completely outplayed Brett Favre in the NFC Championship, right?

Their QBR's wouldn't tell you that, though. Eli had a 72.0 while Favre had a 70.3.

You have to watch the games. Like the Aaron Rogers stats. At first I was going to say maybe he's even better than that, considering how much pressure he's under, but on second thought how much garbage ydg is he getting when he's throwing on 3-18 and picking up 16 easy yards.

Same with Eli, I don't need stats to tell me he has strengths and some major flaws that I'd like to see him fix. I have not seen any improvement in his ability to throw in Giants Stadium. Maybe this is just a midseason slump, and the O will work it's way out of it. We'll see.

Whether Smith was late out of his break, I don't know, but the pass was low, and hit him right out of the break at 100mph. Yes it hit him in the arms, but he hardly had a chance to get his hands up.

If we followed stats, Jason Campbell would be a MVP candidate and a top 5 QB the last 2 years..

Passes like that have to be caught. If a receiver gets his hands there they should catch it. Sometimes passes need to be thrown a little off to keep it away from the defense.

were here touting in when Manning the Lesser had a game with a 158.

HBart, your disclaimer in the original post wasn't clear enough apparently.

Was MIA whilst Eli was lighting up the QBR earlier in the year!

where is Jason Campbell on that list? Why was he omitted?

He did not meet the cutoff of 9 games in either category.

Strange list.

Mark Brunnellis on it, even Damon Huard..

While looking at an individual rating is more than likely flawed, a large enough sample size used as a comparison between qbs naturally works out the flaws. This is how statistics works... As long as all the qbs are rated using the same system and there is enough data for the "stuff that doesn't make sense" to cancel itself out it lends itself to being useful to see trends or make comparisons.

Thus as TD pointed out, we can see that Eli always declines as the regular season progresses (Thankfully he picked back up in 07), and that other qbs tend to have less dramatic swings in constancy as shown by HBart and Jerry so eloquently worded without stats (Good post Jerry).

As for the stats that Britt posted, they are very compelling and do show how the offense has improved since Eli's been here, but as he himself admits cannot be proven to be a direct corollary to Eli. Though it does show that someone like Carbo on Garofalo's blog who claims the Giants should straight bench Eli and start Carr is probably just trying to stir the pot and shouldn't be taken seriously. (Granted we all go to extremes at times just to try to prove a point.)

our SB winning, MVP QB, if Eli were indeed still suffering with the foot ailment and it is affecting him, then I would not be adverse to starting Carr and giving Eli several weeks off.

An interception is generally considered to cost a team over 50 yards and over half a TD. So the premise that one teensy little interception knocks QBR down 20 points so the stat is flawed is actually just the opposite. Interceptions are so incredibly costly that that impact is easily justified. It's another indication that the stat is in fact (over a large enough sample size, as any stat requires, as TAOC points out) well designed.

Randy, to keep this conversation civil I'll kindly suggest you refrain from commenting on my frequency of posting since your powers of observation are clearly lacking, and leave it at that. Eli played at an MVP level for 5 games - and I posted as such numerous times. As Jerry notes, he once again pulled a Lucy to Charlie Brown on us. It's well past the point that he should be doing that. A bad game now and again is to be expected, and in fact after NO I posted that I hoped that his horseshit showing it was nothing more than that rather than another (early) start to a 2nd half slide for Eli. Well now it is. And the impact is severe. And apparently you need to take Eli's dick out of your mouth long enough to notice that (and that I've been posting here all along). And then you can spit or swallow.

accepted. Your being ignorant and biased doesn't offend me though I appreciate the apology!

If it's his foot, then the coaching staff needs to be removed immediately. The only way the foot heals is if it gets rest. It gets worse with playing. They were never in the Eagles or Saints game, yet they left Eli in. Fire the bastards.

It was amazing how Eli toughed it out and ran for more yards than he had since PeeWee Pop Warners.

Randy, Eli has his strengths, but what have you been watching the last 5 years to not know that this stretch is typical for Eli. He is not a great passer. He's just not. He obviously has enough other talents to make up for it at times, but he also goes long stretches like this.

is it likely that the coaches consider QBR when assessing quarterbacks? Would it make sense for them to consider it?

is that Eli has not been as bad as he's been depicted here. Even over the last 3 games. You will notice the naysayers neglecting to mention the passes hitting Mario (for example) in both hands which would have been a TD (Oh, right--they are citing stats which tell the whole picture!), and quite frankly with the way our defense has been playing, I'm not sure Eli could have overcome 40+ points by the other team on a great day.

So, we focus on 3 games and we look to lay blame. I say focus on the fucking defense (which should hopefully get a nice infusion of talent in Canty and/or Boley this week), get the opposing scores down to 20 something or less and then Eli's performances don't look so bad. Especially looking at the games and not just the stats which some here love to spin like their in fucking politics.

but what I was saying about the Superbowl, is that an INT on a perfectly thrown ball that bounced right out of Smith's hands and into the defenders should not drop Eli from a 100 QBR to an 87, as that swing of 13 points is not indicative of HIS play, it was Smith's fault.

Additionally, on the opposite end, how does a garbage time TD factor in? If that boosts the rating 20 points when the game is clearly out of hand or against the other teams scrubs, that's not indicative of the QB's performance either. For instance, if Eli threw a TD in the closing seconds of the Panthers playoff game, his rating would go from 35 to 55. A garbage time TD could make a guy with a 60 QBR show up with and 80 QBR. A 70 QBR to a 90 QBR. We still would have been destroyed, he still would have played like sh-t, but we lost. Neither is good, but one is clearly not as bad as the other. Look at Favre and Eli in the NFC Championship. Favre lost them that game with his pick in overtime. Eli clearly outplayed Favre in that game. He was on fire. Yet Eli had a 72, and Favre had a 70.3. Each of their levels of play that day was not a difference of 1.3 QBR.

Finally, what about taking a sack vs. throwing the ball away? There is too much emphasis on completions and yards, and not game situation. It is, was, and will be a flawed metric as long as those things go unaddressed, IMO.

Do we get to factor in the almost INT's that the DB's didn't make?

Because I recall about 5 in the past 3 weeks that were right in the hands of the defenders and were dropped.

I think the point being missed by some is these things even out, and if the sample size is large enough there is useful information for comparing QB's or evaluating trends.

why not? Once again, it's not indicative of the Quarterback's play. For better, or worse.

I am not sure what you are saying.

Then why are you saying it's not indicative of the QB's play?

Though not factored into the QBR, it is indicative of the QB's play as are the perfect throws that are dropped. Certainly that is a flaw in the QBR, however if one assumes they generally even out over a long period of time, then they become non issues.

Which was my point to Randy...

It's static. It doesn't reflect game situations happening all around the QB. Dropped passes. Dropped picks. Dropped TD's. Throwing the ball away to avoid a sack.

It's a strictly numbers based stat, and numbers don't tell the story of the game.

.

it is obvious that there is a very specific camp here that waits for these times (game, games) for Eli to have less than stellar performances and THAT'S when we see them comment on QB play.

There are certainly some that give kudos, but there are many who just don't/or it is rare/disproportionate to the reality of our QB's abilities.

to defend him during a down time. It is being a loyal fan. So eat me?

No argument from me on that.

But used appropriately, stats can certainly reflect what's actually happening.

Do you think coaches, player personel people, GM's, or scouts use QBR to evaluate a player?

if it's any comfort to you, I'm sorry Hbart called you a slurper.

Not much, but a little.

The youngest Manning brother sure brings out some strong opinions.

?

.

all stats are tools. They all have some value but they're not worth much until you analyze them and determine how much weight to give them.

The QBR is somewhat flawed in the respect that it doesn't take into account the performance of the rest of the team.

If you can take the data and factor in all the determining causes for it, you get a pretty good picture of a player's potential and actual performance.

To omit the factors that might have an effect on the data is painting an incomplete picture.

and I guy I thought was a HELL of a quarterback: Steve McNair. Here are his QBR for each year of his career:

81.7
90.6
70.4
80.1
78.6
83.2
90.2
84.0
100.4
73.1
82.4
82.5
73.9

Career QBR: 82.8

Now compare him to Trent Green:

81.8
101.8
71.1
92.6
92.6
95.2
90.1
74.1
72.6
41.7

Career rating: 86.0

I'm sorry, but if I've got both QBs on my team, Green is watching the game from the bench.

doesn't take into account fumbles or sacks a QB takes or doesn't take.

for example, Drew Brees on Monday night was 8 for 10 with 120 yards and a TD and then late in the 2nd quarter was sacked, fumbled and it was recovered in the EZ by ATL for a TD.

Negative QBR effect = 0.

In that same situation under pressure Eli forces a pass, it's picked off, negative QBR effect = a lot.

another example is if the QB take a sack instead of throwing the ball away it is better for their QBR, but probably worse for the team.

just pointing out some flaws with the stat, and I didn't read the thread to see if they were alrady pointed out, if they were sorry.

I'm sure it is used in contract negotiations.

As for the rest, I don't know. They can probably see when Eli can't hit a bull in the ass with a handful of peas or that his strong suit is not passing the football.

I think HBart was trying to come up with some numbers for those of you who can't see that.

Those of you using a singular example as proof of something are missing the point that is being made.

Taken as an overall - season by season - it can be a somewhat useful measure of a QB's progression/regression, or performance versus his peers (again, as long as it is not used in a vacuum).

We can all find individual examples that show the QBR is flawed, but that is not the point.

going back to the threadstart, what IS the point of this thread?

the point was to use QBR in a vacuum?

I didn't start the thread so it's not fair for me to answer. And like most threads that last a few days, it has taken many twists and turns.

For me, it is a thread that uses multiple years/games worth of QBR (and some other stats) to illustrate that our QB has some major consistency issues, and has had a big hand in our horrible play the past 3 weeks. For those of us who thought he turned that corner, it is extremely frustrating and I assume that is why the thread was started.

Now answer me this - what is your argument? Simply that QBR is a flawed stat (I agree) or that there is no basis whatsoever to wonder how good our $100m QB really is (I don't agree)?

in that it seems like the same people tend to start threads like this, whenver Eli has a bad game, or games, but do not post about him when he is successful. I originally questioned the timing of the thread.

I then challenged the premise of the thread, which is that QBR is flawed.

Finally, I think we can all see the ups and downs, and whether or not Eli is worth $100 million dollars is another story completely, one of which that has not been broached on this thread. However, if we're going to go that route, I would say he is worth it on fair market value alone.

when discussing what has caused Eli's less-than-stellar QBR. "His WR drop a lot of passes." "That INT wasn't his fault, it hit his receiver in the hands." Etc.

Do people really think these things are specific to Eli Manning? That other QB's don't experience those things, too? Please. What an insecure argument that is.

QBR rating isn't perfect, but it's a pretty good measure, particularly with bigger sample sizes. No, it doesn't take into account the system being run, the personnel, what kind of running game the team has around him, etc. But as Dorgan said, it's not a bad tool if you know how to look at it.

is what my previous post should have read. I somehow lost that word.

Now?

and of course it's not specific to Eli Manning. But the game situations and all of the things going on around the QB are certainly important when evaluating his play, and as dorgan said, the reasons for it. The numbers by themselves do not tell the whole story.

I agree--except for weather and drops and deflections where an INT occurred and, of course, the system, age of all personnel, ranking of the defense, and dew point.

Perhaps there are people who become more active when the team is losing... that's not surprising. Lots of people need to be driven to post (or call in to talk shows) and frustration is a good driver.

that a fucking fullback who had like 3 carries all year, burst through our line for a 41 yard TD, and if you know what you're watching, you realize that there is a side of the line that really needs to be fixed and it starts with a D.

Focusing on Eli as a scapegoat and then further using him as a poster child as the "most inaccurate QB in the league" (at best) really brings to question your objectivity of how you view Eli.

Really big.

And of course there's more posting after a loss - alot more to talk about, and alot more frustration as LG points out. Those are definite factors for me (although less than time).

in the threadstart:

Quote:

While like all stats it is imperfect, note that the extremely high correlation between QBs universally considered excellent and the extraordinary correlation to winning (as shown below) indicate that over time the stat indeed is an excellent measure of quality passing performance that contributes strongly to winning football.

and:

Quote:

Games played in the NFL since 2005 that resulted in a passer having a QBR of 60 or worse (crap games): 731; 184-546-1 25% winning percentage

Eli is third in the league in "crap games", with 15. However, it only states the OVERALL record of ALL of the players listed. What were the 15 games? What was the Giants' record in those fifteen games? What happened in those games?

Quote:

Conclusion? Pretty straightforward.

Not really.

Maybe I'm the dumb one here. I have no problem admitting that. I've been the dumb one before. However, I can post stats to paint a picture too. Last year, I posted stats that said we wouldn't have a drop off in production after Plaxico went down, because Hixon's numbers reflected similar production. Obviously, that was wrong. By the people that didn't want to believe that, I was told "watch the game, what do your eyes tell you?"

My eyes tell me that Eli is a good to above average quarterback that can play great, but can also be inconsistent. He certainly is not the bottom dweller or "least accurate QB in the league" that he is made out to be on here by some. I don't give a shit what the stats say.

Agreed on your assessment of Eli.

Me personally, I had hoped he'd be more than that. Maybe he still can be, but he ain't there yet.

he won a Superbowl and was named the MVP of the game against an ubeaten team in only his 4th year. If you told me when we made the trade that that's what the result would be, I'd sign up every time. I don't see how he could deliever much more than that.

Of course we want more, and we're only 5 years in so who knows what the future holds, but if that's all we get, it sure as shit is better than what we had in 17 years prior.

Bingo.

My eyes tell me that Eli is a good to above average quarterback that can play great, but can also be inconsistent. He certainly is not the bottom dweller or "least accurate QB in the league" that he is made out to be on here by some. I don't give a shit what the stats say.


I think mostposters on this thread have the same thoughts as you..

I don't want to get into any conversation that will be construed as me minimizing the awesome accomplishments of 2007. It was one of my greatest sport moments.

Suffice to say, outside of those 4 great games... I expected more from him (particularly after 2007). Maybe that's not fair, but I am just telling you my opinion on it.
The occasional clunker is expected, but to go on these yearly extended slumps is very disconcerting (this year's is much earlier than usual, so maybe that a good thing). It sucked to watch him be outplayed so severely in the PO's last year, yet his start to this season was so excellent that I assumed he had turned the corner.

As has been correctly noted, he is not our only or our biggest problem this year (the D is), but he is not helping the cause either.

Eli is good and bad.

you just might find, you get what you neeeeeed.....

I would love to have a QB with Brady's (when he's on, which is often) uncanny accuracy and abilities.

But we don't.

We have Eli who played a big part in getting us a Championship.

So, I do give him more of a pass sometimes.

What would be an appropriate apology in this case? I'm sorry that HBart sucks (and swallows)? OK.

that the guys wearing the different-color jerseys are BAD.

Like that Rhonde Barber. Nice AND cute!

yeah, go ahead and make fun of the color blind.

I'll bet you laugh at asthmatics too, you heartless prick.

Randy spits or swallows. I'm betting he's a spitter.

Both of my sons are asthmatic, and yes, I make fun of them. What's it to you?

HBart didn't include two playoff games that Eli had under 60 QBR, so I included those, so now it's 17 games.

Quote:

2005 1. 10/30/05 Washington, Eli's rating: 51.3, Giants win 36-0 -Nuff said 2. 11/13/05 Minnesota, Eli's rating: 39.5, Giants lose 24-21 in OT -This is the only game in NFL History where a kickoff, punt, and int were returned for a TD in the same game. 3. 12/04/05 Dallas, Eli's rating: 27.9, Giants win 17-10 4. 1/08/06 Panthers (Playoffs), Eli's rating: 35, Giants lose 23-0 -on Eli. Linebackers didn't help 2006 5. 11/12/06 Chicago, Eli's rating 28.9, Giants lose 38-20 -Sunday night, bad weather, Bears were ready to give up, then convert a 3rd and 25 leading to TD before the half that gives them life. Devin Hester returns a FG 108 yards for a score 6. 11/20/06 @ Jax, Eli's rating 51.9, Giants lose 13-10 -the beginning of the end for John Hufnagel. Despite having Tiki Barber and a dominant O-line, we run the ball 13 times all night, in the rain. 7. 11/27/06 @ Tennessee, Eli's rating 59.1, Giants lose 24-21 -Giants have a 21-0 lead at halftime. Hufnagel continues his downfall. We refuse to run the ball despite dominating the LOS. Plaxico quits on a route, the ball gets picked. Defense folds. 8. 12/24/06 New Orleans, Eli's rating 41.2, Giants lose 30-7 -the only one on this list I didn't see due to a family obligation. DVR'd it, saw the score, deleted without watching 2007 9. 10/28/07 Miami (in London), Eli's rating 44.9, Giants win 13-10 -In the pouring rain and terrible field conditions, Eli scores the Giants only TD. However, it was a rushing TD, and that is not factored into QBR. 10. 11/25/07 Minnesota, Eli's rating 33.8, Giants lose 41-17 -All on Eli. 4 picks, three of which get returned for TD's. 11. 12/16/07, Washington, Eli's rating 51.1, Giants lose 22-10 -Gilbride calls for 54 passes in 35 mph winds. Eli had 36 incomplete passes, 1 TD, no picks. 12. 12/23/07, @ Buffalo, Eli's rating 32.2, Giants win 38-21 -Blizzard conditions 2008 13. 10/13/08, @ Cleveland, Eli's rating 57.1, Giants lose 35-14 -All on Eli for the most part, with 3 picks 14. 12/14/08, @ Dallas, Eli's rating 43.9, Giants lose 20-8 -O line is terrible. Eli gets sacked 8 times 15. 1/11/09 Philly (playoffs), Eli's rating 40.7, Giants lose 23-11 -I put this one on Eli 2009 16. 10/25/09 Arizona, Eli's rating 47.5, Giants lose 24-17 -This one's fresh in the mind. Can't pin this one solely on Eli 17. 11/1/09 @ Philly, Eli's rating 55.7, Giants lose 40-17 -Fresh in the mind, lots of factors.

Overall record when Eli has a QBR under 60? 4-13. Of those 13 losses, I can honestly pin 3, maybe 4 squarely on Eli.

As I was going over the stats at Pro Football reference, something else stuck out to me. Why was the cutoff for QBR constituting a "crap game" 60?

Want to know what the Giants record is when Eli has a QBR in the 60's since 2005?

9-2

The Jax game in 06 was 26-10 not 13-10.

same result, an L.

This why i love stats..If you can pin only 3 or 4 of those losses on Eli, how many of the games he won, can you pin on the running game, defense, etc?..

This is why stats are BS to me..You can disect it for losses and say it wasn't all Eli'as fault, but do anyone look at the wins and see who was the reason or are they Eli's wins just because?

as I said, I can't paint any picture I want with stats.

instead of 70, which would have given Eli 9 more wins and only 2 more losses, which would basically change his whole stance of the "extraordinary" corellation between QBR and Winning percentage.

I'm out.

Obviously the thread starter wants to link stats to wins and that is fine. But, really what is the point? The team is struggling and Eli has already proven himself. Is this thread supposed to indicate that qb is a position of need for the giants? Should this team be looking for another qb? I just don't see what we were supposed to learn from this. i'm obviously ignorant, so sorry if i'm oblivious.

I set the line at 60 because it was unambiguously crappy. And the when it turned out the sample size mirrored the 100+ sample size I looked no further. You're grasping at straws.

And interestingly, you've uncovered statistical evidence of something else that Eli's W-L already strongly suggested - the Giants often win despite Eli. Demonstrated conclusively by his huge positive winning % over the average in crap games.

Thanks! And kudos to the coaching staff and rest of the team.

If the giants win often despite Eli, would it be correct to say that you feel the giants need to upgrade the qb position? Because if a team wins often despite the qb then it has to be the qb, correct?

HBart is stating that he feels that the Giants' brass is delusional in their beliefs in Eli's abilities, recently demonstrated by making him the highest paid Qb in the league.

Luckily, HBart wasn't running the ship in '07 LOlorlrolrolro"">::>>:??

I just want to see him type it. I know HBart has never approved of Eli. That goes back to draft 04, but he's never really said he feels eli holds the giants back.

No, Eli is the Giants QB and will be for many more years. It's not practical to attempt to upgrade. Eli's play is most definitely a limiting factor at times, moreso than most of his upper echelon peers. But its a moot point. He's better on balance than 1/2 to 2/3 of the QBs in the league; on his best days he's better than all but a handful. The Giants have a ginormous investment in him and they're an exceptionally talented team that's proven they can win more than their share win the spin lands on crap.

Fair enough. I appreciate your response.