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Adjusted Comeback Efficiency - Eli Best at Late-Game Heroics

Bockman : 2/2/2010 4:10 pm
Linked Football Outsiders article, basically confirms what we Giants fans all know. While Eli might not be the best overall QB, we want no one else when the game is on the line in the 4th Quarter.
Football Outsiders Article. - ( New Window )
bullshit  
YAJ2112 : 2/2/2010 4:11 pm : link
those stats ignore the fact that the defense carried Eli in all those comebacks
Surely not  
Cam in MO : 2/2/2010 4:13 pm : link
Eli

Fucking

Manning?
The reason - thats when he stops trying to be perfect  
#10* : 2/2/2010 4:14 pm : link
and starts gaming. Which is why he's better in the two minute drill. He stops thinking and starts playing.
Damn...  
Cam in MO : 2/2/2010 4:15 pm : link
Quote:
40 B.Favre 0.93 187 57 30.5% 85.3 18 -22



Number 40?
Also of interest  
danshave : 2/2/2010 4:16 pm : link
is that the Giants Defense in 2007 had the best defense in preventing comebacks of all super bowl winners since 98.
Thanks Ernie  
Motley Blue : 2/2/2010 4:16 pm : link
.
McNabb and Lord Brett bringing up the rear  
j_rud : 2/2/2010 4:17 pm : link
at 39 and 40, respectively.
Cam  
j_rud : 2/2/2010 4:18 pm : link
Numbers are irrelevant when you're just having fun out there. Ya know, like a kid.
Top 4  
Jay in Saratoga : 2/2/2010 4:18 pm : link
The QB class of 2004 + Peyton.
Lol-  
Cam in MO : 2/2/2010 4:19 pm : link
Quote:
After Campbell, the players with the largest negative differentials are two superstars with reputations for big mistakes in big moments: Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre. McNabb (0.94, 39th) and Favre (0.93, 40th) both have ACE ratings that confirm their below-average performance in clutch situations. The peak of Favre's career (1995-97) is cut off by the 1998 start date for the our data, but with by far the most comeback opportunities (187) of anyone on the list, there are no issues with data credibility for Favre (his personal credibility is a separate debate).


I'm starting to feel bad for Joey Nickles.  
Davisian : 2/2/2010 4:20 pm : link
..
Sure, that greedy mother fucker would take all the heroics  
jcn56 : 2/2/2010 4:20 pm : link
.
Hmmm...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 2/2/2010 4:21 pm : link
I wonder why Joeystats (TM'd by DC Pollaro) didn't post this first?
I guess I was right in calling him  
#10* : 2/2/2010 4:22 pm : link
4th Qtr Eli
Jay in S.  
Overseer : 2/2/2010 4:22 pm : link
pretty amazing. And as much credit as the 'big 3' from 2004 get (and deserve), now yet another budding superstar is in the mix in Schaub. Although granted the lucky SOB has the best or 2nd best WR in the league and a top receiving TE, as well.
Still think QB rating  
bois : 2/2/2010 4:23 pm : link
Is a fucking joke. Any system that ranks Eli 25+ spots behind Rivers, Roethlisberger, Romo and Rodgers is simply flawed.
So how exactly does the defense carry Eli  
Figgy2989 : 2/2/2010 4:26 pm : link
In late game comebacks?
I'm sure JoeMPs stats will beg to differ  
GiantsLaw : 2/2/2010 4:33 pm : link
FAVRE RULES!
If you read the article, what they're  
pjcas18 : 2/2/2010 4:37 pm : link
saying is that Eli is a clutch but relative mediocre quarterback because he performs very well when the game is on the line (ACE), but when it's not only so-so (QBR).

I disagree with the idea  
bois : 2/2/2010 4:39 pm : link
That Eli is a relatively mediocre QB, except when the game is on the line. He certainly elevates his game in big situations, no secret to any Giants fan, but he's just as good (in my opinion he's better) than Romo, Rodgers, Rivers or Roethlisberger during the rest of the game as well. Qb Rating is a flawed stat.
....  
JBGiants : 2/2/2010 4:41 pm : link
This is not surprising at all.

Is it still "absolutely insane" to say I would rather have Eli in the fourth quarter of a big game than Favre, Joe?
Yeah  
pjcas18 : 2/2/2010 4:42 pm : link
I wasn't commenting on it, only interpreting what I think they're saying with this article.

honestly, I don't care if Eli is in anyone's top 10 list, if he QBR is 150, if he is in the pro-bowl, I just care that he wins.

accolades and lists are nice to generate discussion, but they aren't important to me and I doubt they are to eli either.
Wait-  
Cam in MO : 2/2/2010 4:42 pm : link
You'd rather have Eli fucking Manning in the 4th quarter than Brett Favre?!?!

WTF is wrong with you?
He won't come on here to argue  
Figgy2989 : 2/2/2010 4:42 pm : link
He is in his glory on the Rex Ryan thread. This thread has stats that won't support his argument, don't expect a comment.
.....  
JBGiants : 2/2/2010 4:43 pm : link
Cam, I know...it's probably just homerism.
baloney  
Greg from LI : 2/2/2010 4:43 pm : link
Everyone Sheli is a coward

/1954
everyone KNOWS  
Greg from LI : 2/2/2010 4:43 pm : link
bah
Eli ripped it up this year and he did it  
RussFLA : 2/2/2010 4:47 pm : link
with WRs that, because of their inexperience, are average compared to what Brees, Favre, McNabb and other peers are working with. Next year, he'll be even better as the passing game clicks even more.
Eli, for the first few years, was all over the place.  
Riggies : 2/2/2010 4:48 pm : link
Mediocre is a fairly nice way of putting it, honestly.

FO has recognized the jump he took starting with the 2007 playoffs several times and that, while he's not an elite-elite QB, he's a good one now.

Those numbers in that article, however, for the sake of fairer analysis of all, include those years, not just the last two after the switch was hit. They're making a general statement on statistical bodies of work over a larger sample size.
The system hurts Eli's QBR  
sharkly : 2/2/2010 4:51 pm : link
the anti-west coast. Amazing list in that it includes more than just active players.
That is Pretty Spectacular  
OntheRoad : 2/2/2010 4:59 pm : link
Joe Flacco would be in the Top Ten also if they accepted players with fewer games.

Interesting how Romo is so much higher than McNabb.
....  
JBGiants : 2/2/2010 5:06 pm : link
Matt Ryan with some impressive early numbers.
.....  
JBGiants : 2/2/2010 5:37 pm : link
Bump
This is exactly the kind of statistic  
RB^2 : 2/2/2010 5:42 pm : link
Everyone here would crap all over if it didn't tell us what we wanted to hear.
Looking at that list  
sharkly : 2/2/2010 7:17 pm : link
this may be the best group of starting QBs ever. Better training, coaching, friendlier rules, offensive schemes or whatever. The Eli, Ben, Rivers draft year was unbelievably good. Three SB titles already and barely a missed play-off season.
Eventually, the entire NFL Season hangs on one Playoff game  
RobotGhost : 2/2/2010 7:31 pm : link
That game very often swings on a just a few key plays and decisions, and it's often the QB that makes most of them.

That's why QBR, which is a useful tool when there is a lot of data like the regular season or an entire career to sort, doesn't always correlate to final success. QBR cannnot recognize the small group of key plays that win or lose one game, or the guy that makes them.

It's a proven fact in every profession that involves performance and decisions under stress that some people are better at handling it than others, and some are worse.

A small group is always *significantly* better than the average in every profession, and everybody knows who they are. It's cetainly not hard to tell in the NFL.

No shit Brett Favre is near the bottom and Eli is at top. No football fan can honestly be surprised to see that.
there's one thing so far  
santacruzom : 2/2/2010 7:55 pm : link
on that list that I don't understand... how does it figure that Tom Brady had one successful comeback attempts out of ten in 2009? Wouldn't that mean they lost at least 9 games?
While this undoubtedly has its flaws  
kickerpa16 : 2/2/2010 8:14 pm : link
it's the first metric that does attempt to analyze a situation (in the NFL) by "normalizing" observations across players. It's an important attribute.
RB^2  
Kyle : 2/2/2010 8:17 pm : link
It does not tell the board exactly what it wants to hear: namely, that in this group of 60 or so quarterbacks, Eli Manning is below average outside of the "clutch" moments in a football game.
santa  
Kyle : 2/2/2010 8:20 pm : link
Quote:
The purpose of the Adjusted Comeback Efficiency (ACE) Rating is to provide a comprehensive figure for measuring a quarterback’s performance in potential game-winning or game-tying situations.


I think it means that, if a game in which the Giants fell behind by two scores and never narrowed it to one score before it was Too Late (say, 30 seconds left), it would not count as a comeback attempt.

It is a harsh line to draw, but it has to get drawn somewhere, I guess.
I see  
santacruzom : 2/2/2010 8:25 pm : link
so it's essentially saying that a game can have more than one comeback attempt... that makes sense.
I think so, yeah  
Kyle : 2/2/2010 8:26 pm : link
Super Bowls XLII and XLIII are prime examples of one team needing a comeback late in the game, and the other having to retaliate.
Actually,  
Mike from SI : 2/2/2010 8:28 pm : link
some of this does justify some of Joe's points:

Quote:
The winners from 2000 to 2004 (plus the 2007 Giants) were all defensive-minded teams with defensive ACE ratings below 0.75 (low is good for defenses)
To be clear  
Mike from SI : 2/2/2010 8:28 pm : link
"justify" might have been too strong a word there, but you see what I'm getting at.
Mike-  
Cam in MO : 2/2/2010 8:35 pm : link
nobody disputes that our defense was great and most would agree that they're the primary reason that we won in '07.

The thing that folks don't agree with Joe on is that Eli was just a game manager and that our offense really didn't contribute that much.

The two aren't mutually exclusive. Our defense was spectacular, and Eli was fantastic at the points that he needed to be.

Cam  
Mike from SI : 2/2/2010 8:59 pm : link
I agree. That's why I was sure to take back the word "justify."
Here is why I hate the  
JOrthman : 2/2/2010 9:08 pm : link
"Defense is why we won crowd." Before the playoff run that year there were several long run threads and one in particular where the majority was stating Eli was holding us back from advancing and the defense was pretty damn good. So, we go on a run and win it all and now its only because of the D. If it was truely because of the D, then it damn sure wasn't just him holding us back.
.....  
JBGiants : 2/3/2010 12:11 pm : link
Bump
hey, where's Joe????  
Greg from LI : 2/3/2010 12:59 pm : link
??
JB/Greg  
Figgy2989 : 2/3/2010 1:01 pm : link
You guys are too funny, I was just going to do a search for this thread to bump it up and see if we can get a reply from Joe.
good luck  
Greg from LI : 2/3/2010 1:11 pm : link
You'd sooner get Brett Favre to stop throwing dumbass interceptions
......  
JBGiants : 2/3/2010 1:27 pm : link
Greg, but according to Joe, those "aggressive" INTs are one of the things that makes him so great. He HATES QBs who have consistently shown up in crunch time in their careers, and LOVES the QB I can remember who has fucked up more big games in the clutch than anyone.
Favre  
Phil in LA : 2/3/2010 1:56 pm : link
was a better player with Holmgren.
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