NGT Why the Niners will regress this season

the SB this past season with Alex Smith as QB. Despite Alex Smith playing like garbage, the Giants needed some luck to beat them.

I think Alex Smith is a ~20th ranked QB in the league, a good game manager. He does have more weapons this year. I don't think he'll regress, I think he'll have more INTs than last year but overall he should still be a decent QB.

That defense features a ton of young talent. People here jizz themselves at the thought of what JPP can become in the future, Aldon Smith is the closest thing to JPP in the league. He is a future DPOY. And surrounding him is a bunch of ridiculous defensive talent including Willis, Bowman, Smith, McDonald, and a good secondary.

I think the Niners will be a Ravens like defense for these next 5 years, always in the Top 5 and sometimes the best in the league. If you asked who the 10 best defensive players in the NFC were last year, you could easily have named 5 Niners on that list.

I agree that Smith is mediocre, but that defense is scary good. They also have more offensive talent surrounding Smith now too. I think they're for real.

about Randy Moss is a little scary. Alex Smith is no Tom Brady haha but Randy Moss can still be a gamebreaker if motivated, and it looks like he's motivated. Just having the threat of Moss and even Manningham over the top makes Davis a much more dangerous player and also makes their running game better.

Moss is like a scary movie villain, I'll need to be convinced that he's 100% dead before I stop worrying about him.

despite their defense and even some excellent years record-wise. Why? Quarterback.

Hell, ask yourself this: what's the significant difference between the 2011 Niners and the 2009-present New York Jets? A real fortuitous run of turnover-free play from an otherwise-bad offense.

In my mind, you have to actually make it to the Super Bowl to almost win it.

Kyle spells it out nicely - in order to get to the NFC title game, they had virtually everything break their way. Alex Smith had the (meager) season of his life. Do you think it's likely he repeats that interception percentage? The Niners had a MASSIVE positive turnover differential. That's highly unlikely to happen again. They were extremely healthy all year long. Again, not likely to happen again to the same extent.

That defense makes them a solid team and a likely playoff team, but Alex Smith is a huge handicap for them.

deep ball, and Alex Smith is pretty bad when throwing deep.

pretty much every year in the past 6+ years (out of an irrational hatred for the Steelers plus a love for Raymell Rice and Ed Reed). But the Ravens entered games with a big disadvantage at QB against most teams, and nowhere was the discrepancy more noticeable than against the Steelers, because the Ravens/Steelers were basically identical outside the QB spot.

Going further on the Jets comparison, are the Jets contenders this upcoming season? You'll say no. Ask yourself: why not? Consider the following:

Niners Giveaways = 10
Niners Takeaways = 38
Jets Giveaways = 34
Jets Takeaways = 31

If the Jets had 24 less giveaways last year, you don't think that's a 12-4 team (laughably still a wildcard because the Patriots exist) with the league petrified of them in the playoffs?

a team that no one here on BBI wanted to see the Giants have to play.

Give Smith some credit in that he threw a rope on the game winning TD in a very small window.

SF is a very good team.

Vernon Gholston was a Bust, Aldon Smith is a Beast...

It's not quite that simple, but that's a huge difference between the two teams. Gholston busting really hurt the Jets, because they've been craving a top pass rushing talent for a while now.

The Jets finished 20th in points this season, and one of the main reasons why was because of a mediocre pass rush. If they had an Aldon Smith, they would be a scary D once again because they'd have a pass rush worth worrying over for the offense.

I'm not saying the Niners will be SB contenders every year, but with that defense I think they'll be in the playoff mix pretty much every year and have a couple of real chances to make deep runs.

The actual roster difference between the Jets and Niners is a better secondary v. better pass rush.

But that's not what's important.

The Jets offense posted 21 more turnovers than the Niners offense did last season. The Jets offense was much less efficient and, against the Ravens, was so comically bad that they lost the game in like the first 10 minutes.

If the Jets offense had 10 turnovers, like the Niners offense had did, you don't think the Jets defense would have allowed ~15 points per game, like the Niners defense did?

The Packers were a much better team than them last year. Eli would have sliced the Saints up.

the Jets have the better secondary because they have one of the best DBs of all-time on their team. But the lack of a pass rush is why the Jets were the 20th ranked defense in football last year.

And that mediocre defense is what caused them to play from behind more often than the Niners. So that's why the turnover comparison is irrelevant imo. You can't just compare turnovers and say if this happens, then that happens. The reason the Niners committed less turnovers on offense was because they had a much better defense than the Jets last season. And because of that they were able to play with the lead more often. And on top of that, they also had the far better running game with Gore instead of Greene to allow them to place less responsibility on the QB.

The Niners turnover ratio won't be the same, they got lucky last year. I totally agree with that. But they are a much better team than the Jets, because they have a better defense that allowed their offense to play a safer style.

I think your causation re: turnovers is backwards, and I think reliance on points allowed for defensive rankings is very flawed.

with this, I think you have it backwards too.

Sanchez threw 437 pass attempts when he was trailing or tied, Smith threw 232 pass attempts when he was trailing or tied.

Sanchez had 14 INTs in those situations, Smith had 1 INT.

Smith only threw 21 passes all last season when the Niners were trailing by 9 or more points. Sanchez threw 170 passes last year when the Jets were trailing by 9 or more points.

I think you overestimate the Jets D. The lack of a pass rush for the Jets has been a big issue for them. Their leading sack artist had like 6.5 sacks last year. The Jets D forced Sanchez to play from way behind many times, forcing him to make throws. The Niners were never forced to chuck it and catch up last year because their D held it down for them.

I see that the Jets had the 2nd ranked defense, which is probably where you're coming from. I think they're probably closer to 2nd than 20th like I said before, but that lack of a pass rush has been killing them for a while. I don't think they were the 2nd best D last season, probably somewhere between 2nd and 20th like 10th or something.

The Jets were just the most convenient analogy for the Niners: a team with a very good defense (a few years running now, no less), a team that made it to the Conference Championship round in spite of their flaws, but a team that has a Super Bowl contendership killing hole at the quarterback position.

We've seen what the Niners can achieve with the absolute best case scenario from their current QB, which fueled + coincided with a confluence of luck in the turnover department and also led to tremendous field position advantage that (artificially) bolstered their team's defensive rankings.

We've seen this story before. Until the QB gets upgraded, it doesn't end well.

was insanely good, even with Sanchez committing 23 turnovers. It makes what Peyton did in the 2nd half against them in the AFCCG that much more impressive

I actually don't think they are that supremely talented on defense, personnel-wise. Especially the last couple of years with some of their key pieces aging. I think it speaks to Rex's schemes and coaching ability that they are as good as they have been, IMO. Revis is obviously exceptional and gives them much more flexibility in their defensive schemes.

I like some of the things they did this winter though and think they'll be better on D. Again, the problem is that their offense is so questionable and will probably be top 10 as far as giveaways are concerned.

And put me down as well for Smith not maintaining that historically good turnover rate.

But I don't believe a 10-6 team with a crippling deficiency at QB is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. A playoff team, sure.

With a top 3 defense and a middle of the pack offense.

That's what I see for the Niners this year, I'm not calling for them to repeat last year. But I think they'll make the playoffs again and be a threat because of that defense.

It's a QB league no doubt, but one of the few ways to stop a great QB is through a great pass rush like the Giants proved twice over the last 5 years. The Niners have a dominant front 7 and pass rush, filled with young talent. I just see them being peripherary contenders like the Ravens for the next handful of years, never a favorite because of the QB but always a threat.

And despite disagreeing, we really agree.

Tangentially related, I'm very big on the work of FBO and others on year-to-year trends in the NFL and looking to see what's proven to be sustainable or unsustainable.

is because they had about 8 or 9 touchdowns scored on them when their defense wasn't even on the field. Defensive TDs against the Jets offense, it happened to an abnormal degree. In the Ravens game alone it happened more times than it does for an average team in an entire season. They ranked 5th in yards allowed, Allowed 15 passing TDs vs 19 picks, they were tough to move the ball on. But the reasons explained earlier account for the disparity in points against.

i could also recall another 3-4 times where the Jet defense took the field with the other team set up inside the 5.

Their D was way better than 20th. I just prefer the style of the Niners D and I think they have much more talent in the front 7 which I value more. And I think the Niners D should remain elite, as Justin Smith slows down Aldon Smith should improve.

And there is no question in my mind they upgraded their talent base overall. But they aren't matching their turnover differential numbers from last season, which were historic. I could see SF being anything from a 10-6 division champ to not even making the playoffs.

performance. Well we know that isn't gonna happen because the Giants have the market cornered on luck, just ask any Eagles fan, or 49ers fan for that matter. The Giants put a blueprint out for beating the 49ers and the NFL is a copycat league. Good luck trying to duplicate Eli's performance but QB's will take more sacks and throw it away more to reduce turnovers. Punters will try to duplicate Weatherfords performance to reduce the field position advantage. As much as coaches emphasize turnovers every week they will beat that drum harder the week they play the 49ers. Good team but not as good as last year.

will probably jump up and surprise people this year. SF is not clinching their division by Thanksgiving again. All 3 of them are flawed but have some things to like about them. Arizona closed very strong last season. Seattle has a very good defense and if Flynn is decent they could be solid. I even like the Rams more than most people. They had a good offseason, and i think they entered this offseason with more talent than their 2-14 record would indicate. Just massive injury and a rough sked contributed to them underachieving badly. Entering last season they were the hot pick to win that division and most people thought they were better than SF

IMO Arizona has something in John Skelton. They're a better team with him than they are Kolb. They should just consider Kolb a sunk cost and move on.

Cosell demolished Kolb last year in his game tape study, saying he was not a legitimate NFL roster quality QB, not even a backup, because his pocket presence is brutal.

for several reasons. My exposure to Skelton is limited because there wasn't much reason to be watching the Cardinals in the 2nd half of last season. I did get to see him play one full game (at philly) and was more impressed with him in that one than I've ever been with Kolb.

So we're spared the spectacle of someone surrendering a 2nd for Mike Kafka.

I know Cossell isn't the end all be all, but to have him go ahead and say the guy isn't even a quality back up really makes me scratch my head at how on earth Arizona gave the Eagles what they did.

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Always drops the knowledge, and summarizes things as only he can...

"Ya know what these guys always miss tho?

1) They DON'T HAVE TO GO 13-3 to win the Super Bowl. They only need to get to the playoffs. Then it's just a game of matchups. The entire NFC West is playing a harder schedule.

2) Alex Smith peformance DID NOT start last year. Down the stretch after the Eagles game in 2010 (7 games), he Threw 8 TDs and ONE pick. In the 2011 playoffs he threw 5 TDs and ZERO picks. That means over the last 25 games he has thrown 30 TDs and 6 INTs. Alexs biggest problem has ALWAYS been RELUCTANCE to throw the ball. He has never been a guy who threw wildly into coverage. He held the ball unless he was sure. Under Harbaugh he is sure what his read is FAR, FAR more often and that's why he doesn't throw picks. We can criticise him for not making the pass he should and being reluctant to cut it loose, but taking chances has never been his problem...and that goes all the way back to college.

3) These guys always forget one REALLY, REALLY big thing: The Lockout. We didn't even see how good the Niners could be last year. The 49ers were supposed to be in BIG, BIG trouble because they had no time to install their offense and defense. Despite that disadvantage, they produced their best season in recent memory. This guy quotes all of those close games, but many of them were early on while the team was still learning the systems. They only put up about 200 yards of offense on several occasions early on and slowly opened up the attack every week. They were a different team at the finish than they were at the start.


Look, the Niners likely won't go 13-3 again this year. Ya know what tho? THEY DON'T NEED TO. The team that won the Super Bowl last year went 9-7 in the regular season. How did they win it? A D that could get to the QB with 4 and drop 7 into coverage against teams that could only pass (Packers, Pats). Who did the Giants have the most trouble with? Niners. That game could have gone either way. Guess who else can get there with 4 and can stop the run with only the front 7?

Sorry Haters....Niners aren't going anywhere. "

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Quote:

Alexs biggest problem has ALWAYS been RELUCTANCE to throw the ball

This isn't analysis. It's up there with discussions on grit, clutch, determination, "wanting it more", etc.

Quote:

3) These guys always forget one REALLY, REALLY big thing: The Lockout. We didn't even see how good the Niners could be last year. The 49ers were supposed to be in BIG, BIG trouble because they had no time to install their offense and defense.

Applies to every team, and particularly, every team with a new coach.

Can the Niners duplicate 2011 in terms of on-field play, regardless of how it's reflected in the win/loss column? Sure. Are the odds extremely low because of a number of fortunate occurrences all coalescing into one magical season? Yes.

These thoughts aren't exclusive.

Alex Smith will not repeat what he did
last year and until we dismantle the
Saints they still scare me the next team
I fear go ahead and Laugh its Philthy thirdly
the Niners then say the Pack .

And it was pointed out correctly that the 2011 niners offense was Better than the 97 giants offense. Vernon Davis and the San Fran Oline were much better than what the 97 giants ran out there. Still, both teams won with insanely opportunistic defenses. Eventually the chicken came home to roost for both teams.

defense/pass rush.

I know as a 49er fan you have to pretend that having a QB that can make a throw like that one to Manningham against the Patriots isn't important because Smith physically can't make it and probably won't even try to if you're right about his "reluctance," but the formula is pass rush + QB = shot to win SB, if in. Not just one or the other.

They didn't allow Smith to put it in harms way. With their new 'weapons' on offense Harbaugh thinks he can 'open things up'. With this guy as his trigger man that will result in more turnovers. A lot more.

The top quarterbacks, with six or seven exceptions in 46 Super Bowls, have won the Super Bowl and it's getting more quarterback driven, not less. Just look at the list of winners.

Alex Smith is not a top quarterback so the only question is whether or not that very good defense is good enough to become one of those very, very rare exceptions. Are they as good as the 2002 Bucs or the 2000 Ravens? Time will tell.

Alex Smith sucks and Randy Moss is washed up.

They aren't a contender; but still figure to be favored in the division.

Which is against our biggest weakness in the OLine. That is a matchup this Giants OL has struggled with two times now. And with Aldon and Bowman both getting better, they can be incredible. I expect the Giants to be a better team and have a better OL than last year this season. But I don't feel confident against a front 7 like San Fran's.

I'm huge on the Giants this season. But I think the Niners are once again a threat to us because of their pass rush. They have a chance to exploit our biggest hole more than any other team.

bad mouth the opposition but he made it quite clear that he thought Aldon Smith benefits tremendously from the attention Justin Smith garners. Justin Smith will be 33 this season. Let's see what happens when Justin declines soon before anointing Aldon and that 49ers front.

They may regress this season because of their schedule.

GB, Chi, Det, NO, Giants, NE, Buf, Jets (2nd road game in a row away from west)

Outside of the Rams, they struggled against both Arizona & Seattle

They are a very good team, but they still have A. Smith at QB. They will play 7 where they face a better QB. Plus a few more where they are no better.

The Giants beat them once and came very close to beating them in the other game, both on the road. I'd feel perfectly confident.

may have his beat coach yet - so I wouldn't count on a regression

The Giants are better and feel confident vs. Anyone in the league. But feom a matchup pov I dont like our OL against them.

The biggest reason the Giants won the Super Bowl was that their QB could be counted on to make plays in tough spots. Think Alex Smith is hitting Manningham for a TD on 3rd and 17? Think again.

The 49ers DID go somewhere. Home. Live with that while you're watching them struggle when that +28 turnover ratio normalizes.

if not for the 49ers we'd be talking about the Packers being +24 last year. That shit ain't happening again either.

GB's defense was historically inept all season (most passing yards allowed in history) but it got ignored because LOL TURNOVERS and LOL OFFENSE.

Posting 35 and then 37 more in the playoffs on that shit defense made me so, so happy from the standpoint of understanding the sport.