Unsustainable turnover ratio, weak division. That defense is crazy talented but it'll be hard to repeat last year's performance. Gore another year older.
I think they win the division, but not as a top-2 seed in the NFC.
Still, defense is legit, Harbaugh is a good coach, Smith can handle that game manager role, and the division hasn't improved much.
The 49ers have got 7-9 written all over them
Go Terps : 8/6/2012 11:43 am
Teams that thrive on +28 turnover ratios don't maintain.
Troy Aikman hit on this theme on Mike Francesa's show all of last season. Once it became clear the 49ers would compete in the NFC (around November when they beat the Giants) his weekly concern was that come playoff time the 49ers would lack the ability to move the ball and score in a crucial situation and it would cost them. He was absolutely right.
The 49ers got all the way to overtime of the championship game by riding a stout defense and an offense that took no chances and thus made no mistakes. That's a credit to them, but their margin for error was smaller than any of the other playoff teams. They know this, and that's why they:
- signed Randy Moss
- signed Mario Manningham
- threw their hat in the ring for Peyton Manning
This year they're going to learn the hard way that Alex Smith can't increase that margin of error with explosive plays to Moss and Manningham. And they damn sure won't be +28 again.
the article, it's likely for them to drop a game or 2 and still play very good football. Their D is basically the same and they have a good stock of receivers and running backs to pick from. They should make the playoffs again.
After reading the article, I see the author believes they will win 9 games at the most this year. I'd take that wager with him. I'd bet they will get 10 or more. They still play in the NFC West.
Solid defense, good players on offense, average conservative QB. I'm thinking 11 wins. What say you?
but I think the West could be better than many expect this year. Arizona was playing well at the end of the year (especially the D) and Seattle has some talent. If Flynn is a good QB, they'll be competitive. I don't think the 49ers will have an easy 5 wins in their division this season.
were virtually a carbon copy of the 1997 Giants, with slightly better QB play. We know how the 97-99 seasons ended up for NYG. I'll give Harbaugh and Smith an edge over Fassel and Danny Kannel but the comparison still carries weight in my eyes. Niners have a great defense but defense only carries a team so far. The O needs to get things going or the team will have too little room for error on a weekly basis.
A lot of good points made...strictly on the basis of
their health from last year plus productive seasons from previously disappointing players...they will fall. By how much, who knows. 13-3 again is totally unrealistic....I say 10-6 depending on injuries and their quarterback play. But he makes a real good point...you bring in two WRs whose strength is going deep. Well, if you try to throw deep more often, Smith will have more interceptions or more sacks or other mishaps. It comes with the territory.
Logically, will an aging Justin Smith have another monster year? Or Carlos Rogers?
It just makes sense that they will regress this year.
than 1997 Giants. The SF line is very good and Davis is better than anyone the Giants had. That's not even considering Ted Ginn's effect on the game if he had played.
in a bad division will get them into the playoffs. thats a great start. We will be fighting all year. If it does not kill us it will make us stronger just like last year. The injury factor is the big variable.
It's a very interesting question when you factor in Moss and Manningham - do they improve the offense at the expense of the no turnover formula that worked so well for them?
I put the 49ers in the legit contender lot where their ultimate record will be a product of health and luck, as it is for most good teams, but with a bias toward falling back simply because Alex Smith needs to show more, and as the article notes regression to the mean on TOs is highly likely regardless of what Smith does.
We're past the "Alex Smith needs to show more" stage of his career. He was drafted the year after Eli Manning. Can you imagine if we entered last season with Eli having accomplished what Smith has to this point?
At this point he almost certainly is what he is. He's an 8th year QB that has only once broken the 3,000 yard mark and has never thrown more than 18 TDs in a season. There's a reason he led the league in sacks and had the fewest picks...it's because the training wheels are still most definitely on for him.
He's got the most physically gifted TE in football. He's got a mauling OL. He's got a deep stable of LBs. He's had decent receivers - not all world or anything, but plenty capable. Despite all that, the best he can do is to play within a training-wheels gameplan that's built almost entirely on not allowing him to turn the ball over. He sucks, plain and simple.
Go Terps : 9/10/2008 11:53 pm
the excuse that he never had a chance. San Francisco made a massive investment in him...HE is the one that is supposed to have elevated his teammates' play by now.
It's not as if the team is lacking in talent. The offensive line is ok, the RB is quite good, the TE is very good, and the defense is fairly stout with one of the best LBs in the game.
The biggest problem in SF has been the passing game, and from what I've seen from that team the QB position has been the problem.
but that does almost nothing to change my opinion of Alex Smith as so physically limited at QB that it's an automatic handicap every game (and that's not even addressing the mental aspects of the position).
When defenses can ignore the territory outside the numbers without much risk because of your QB's arm strength, your offense is gonna have a bad time.
I'll just add one of observations in that a first year coach often has success for 2 reasons ...
1) New Sherriff in town ...
Change leads to enthusiasm - What they did last year may keep that going albeit slightly lower ...
2) An offensive minded coach will put in a system that no DC has had to face ... No knowledge about tendencies ... nor game plans ... but an intelligent HC like Harbaugh will be able to find ways to attack those defenses who don't have enough information to counter ...
Now with a full year ... opposing DCs now can see a lot what SF is doing and will figure out how to adapt ...
So with that - a little less enthusiasm and a lot more information for opposing DCs to prepare for ... they'll drop down a few games ...
Recall even Mangini was call Mangenious after his first year ...
will be very good based on strong offensive line and very good defense. La Micheal James is going to have some explosive plays too. I think the run game, defense and weak division will give them at least 10 wins. There's no world beater qbs in that division so as bad as Alex Smith is, the rest of the division is probably weaker at qb.
I was wondering that myself. I nearly stopped reading the article all together after reading the first few sentences. I'm still wondering what play did Moss make to almost win a game he didn't play in? Unless they were referring to Manningham and think he's a future HoFer?
Quote:
They even went out this offseason and upgraded their weakest position, wide receiver, by bringing in a Hall of Famer and the guy who made the biggest play in that Super Bowl.
Remember when the Giants special teams was off the charts good? Critics said it was an anomaly, and they were right.
Same with close games. Yes, clutch play makes a difference, but last year we got Ws in a few games we had no business winning, like the Arizona game. You can make a case for Giants and Niners both taking a step back.
The difference is the Giants have a lot of room to improve on defense and they have the players to do it, as shown by the playoffs.
The Niners have nowhere to go but down on defense and on offense they need Alex Smith elevate his game. Good luck with that.
Alex Smith shouldn't be the first thing you talk about, it should be that fucking monster of a Front 7. I think the Niners will Win a couple less games because they face a tougher schedule and won't maintain that same TO Ratio, but they are still absolutely a contender imo. That defense is going nowhere anytime soon, if anything it could get even better as Aldon Smith develops into an All Pro. That defense should carry them to the playoffs again.
Alex Smith is the reason why the Niners are not a contender
Unless Alex Smith surprises the world and becomes a quality QB, they're not winning the Super Bowl despite that defense.
We like to romanticize the Ravens and Bucs for winning with terrible QBs, but those are the exceptions to the rule... and those defenses were legendary.
The Ravens have a good case for the best defense of all time
And the Buccaneers had Brad Johnson, who was no superstar but was a much, much better QB than Alex Smith. Really, the Ravens are the only team you can point to as a defense dragging a lousy QB to a championship, and as good as the Niners defense is they're not in a class with the 2000 Ravens yet.
They can win a Super Bowl with Smith. They certainly could have last season. I'm a Giants fan, same as the rest of you, and while I don't think the Giants were undeserving last season, they did get two HUGE breaks in that NFC Championship Game. And the Niners still managed to take it deep into OT.
They absolutely could have beaten New England, no question about it. With Alex Smith. He plays like he did last season, they can win a Super Bowl with him.
That 49ers defense wasn't exactly the reason they made the NFC Championship either - they were trying to give away that Divisional Round game against New Orleans towards the end. Smith stepped up along with Vernon Davis and carried that defense to the next round.
Every break possible (until Kyle Williams) went the Niners way in 2011
the SB this past season with Alex Smith as QB. Despite Alex Smith playing like garbage, the Giants needed some luck to beat them.
I think Alex Smith is a ~20th ranked QB in the league, a good game manager. He does have more weapons this year. I don't think he'll regress, I think he'll have more INTs than last year but overall he should still be a decent QB.
That defense features a ton of young talent. People here jizz themselves at the thought of what JPP can become in the future, Aldon Smith is the closest thing to JPP in the league. He is a future DPOY. And surrounding him is a bunch of ridiculous defensive talent including Willis, Bowman, Smith, McDonald, and a good secondary.
I think the Niners will be a Ravens like defense for these next 5 years, always in the Top 5 and sometimes the best in the league. If you asked who the 10 best defensive players in the NFC were last year, you could easily have named 5 Niners on that list.
I agree that Smith is mediocre, but that defense is scary good. They also have more offensive talent surrounding Smith now too. I think they're for real.
about Randy Moss is a little scary. Alex Smith is no Tom Brady haha but Randy Moss can still be a gamebreaker if motivated, and it looks like he's motivated. Just having the threat of Moss and even Manningham over the top makes Davis a much more dangerous player and also makes their running game better.
Moss is like a scary movie villain, I'll need to be convinced that he's 100% dead before I stop worrying about him.
Those mid-decade Ravens teams weren't Super Bowl contenders
despite their defense and even some excellent years record-wise. Why? Quarterback.
Hell, ask yourself this: what's the significant difference between the 2011 Niners and the 2009-present New York Jets? A real fortuitous run of turnover-free play from an otherwise-bad offense.
In my mind, you have to actually make it to the Super Bowl to almost win it.
Kyle spells it out nicely - in order to get to the NFC title game, they had virtually everything break their way. Alex Smith had the (meager) season of his life. Do you think it's likely he repeats that interception percentage? The Niners had a MASSIVE positive turnover differential. That's highly unlikely to happen again. They were extremely healthy all year long. Again, not likely to happen again to the same extent.
That defense makes them a solid team and a likely playoff team, but Alex Smith is a huge handicap for them.
Randy Moss is only dangerous if you have a QB who can get him the
pretty much every year in the past 6+ years (out of an irrational hatred for the Steelers plus a love for Raymell Rice and Ed Reed). But the Ravens entered games with a big disadvantage at QB against most teams, and nowhere was the discrepancy more noticeable than against the Steelers, because the Ravens/Steelers were basically identical outside the QB spot.
Going further on the Jets comparison, are the Jets contenders this upcoming season? You'll say no. Ask yourself: why not? Consider the following:
If the Jets had 24 less giveaways last year, you don't think that's a 12-4 team (laughably still a wildcard because the Patriots exist) with the league petrified of them in the playoffs?
Vernon Gholston was a Bust, Aldon Smith is a Beast...
It's not quite that simple, but that's a huge difference between the two teams. Gholston busting really hurt the Jets, because they've been craving a top pass rushing talent for a while now.
The Jets finished 20th in points this season, and one of the main reasons why was because of a mediocre pass rush. If they had an Aldon Smith, they would be a scary D once again because they'd have a pass rush worth worrying over for the offense.
I'm not saying the Niners will be SB contenders every year, but with that defense I think they'll be in the playoff mix pretty much every year and have a couple of real chances to make deep runs.
The actual roster difference between the Jets and Niners is a better secondary v. better pass rush.
But that's not what's important.
The Jets offense posted 21 more turnovers than the Niners offense did last season. The Jets offense was much less efficient and, against the Ravens, was so comically bad that they lost the game in like the first 10 minutes.
If the Jets offense had 10 turnovers, like the Niners offense had did, you don't think the Jets defense would have allowed ~15 points per game, like the Niners defense did?
I had no problems with the Giants going to New Orleans
the Jets have the better secondary because they have one of the best DBs of all-time on their team. But the lack of a pass rush is why the Jets were the 20th ranked defense in football last year.
And that mediocre defense is what caused them to play from behind more often than the Niners. So that's why the turnover comparison is irrelevant imo. You can't just compare turnovers and say if this happens, then that happens. The reason the Niners committed less turnovers on offense was because they had a much better defense than the Jets last season. And because of that they were able to play with the lead more often. And on top of that, they also had the far better running game with Gore instead of Greene to allow them to place less responsibility on the QB.
The Niners turnover ratio won't be the same, they got lucky last year. I totally agree with that. But they are a much better team than the Jets, because they have a better defense that allowed their offense to play a safer style.
Sanchez threw 437 pass attempts when he was trailing or tied, Smith threw 232 pass attempts when he was trailing or tied.
Sanchez had 14 INTs in those situations, Smith had 1 INT.
Smith only threw 21 passes all last season when the Niners were trailing by 9 or more points. Sanchez threw 170 passes last year when the Jets were trailing by 9 or more points.
I think you overestimate the Jets D. The lack of a pass rush for the Jets has been a big issue for them. Their leading sack artist had like 6.5 sacks last year. The Jets D forced Sanchez to play from way behind many times, forcing him to make throws. The Niners were never forced to chuck it and catch up last year because their D held it down for them.
I see that the Jets had the 2nd ranked defense, which is probably where you're coming from. I think they're probably closer to 2nd than 20th like I said before, but that lack of a pass rush has been killing them for a while. I don't think they were the 2nd best D last season, probably somewhere between 2nd and 20th like 10th or something.
I'm not disputing the Jets lack of a pass rush or anything of the sort
The Jets were just the most convenient analogy for the Niners: a team with a very good defense (a few years running now, no less), a team that made it to the Conference Championship round in spite of their flaws, but a team that has a Super Bowl contendership killing hole at the quarterback position.
We've seen what the Niners can achieve with the absolute best case scenario from their current QB, which fueled + coincided with a confluence of luck in the turnover department and also led to tremendous field position advantage that (artificially) bolstered their team's defensive rankings.
We've seen this story before. Until the QB gets upgraded, it doesn't end well.
was insanely good, even with Sanchez committing 23 turnovers. It makes what Peyton did in the 2nd half against them in the AFCCG that much more impressive
I actually don't think they are that supremely talented on defense, personnel-wise. Especially the last couple of years with some of their key pieces aging. I think it speaks to Rex's schemes and coaching ability that they are as good as they have been, IMO. Revis is obviously exceptional and gives them much more flexibility in their defensive schemes.
I like some of the things they did this winter though and think they'll be better on D. Again, the problem is that their offense is so questionable and will probably be top 10 as far as giveaways are concerned.
And put me down as well for Smith not maintaining that historically good turnover rate.
It doesn't flame out into a 6-10 shitshow, mind you
With a top 3 defense and a middle of the pack offense.
That's what I see for the Niners this year, I'm not calling for them to repeat last year. But I think they'll make the playoffs again and be a threat because of that defense.
It's a QB league no doubt, but one of the few ways to stop a great QB is through a great pass rush like the Giants proved twice over the last 5 years. The Niners have a dominant front 7 and pass rush, filled with young talent. I just see them being peripherary contenders like the Ravens for the next handful of years, never a favorite because of the QB but always a threat.
Tangentially related, I'm very big on the work of FBO and others on year-to-year trends in the NFL and looking to see what's proven to be sustainable or unsustainable.
the reason why the Jets were 20th in points against
is because they had about 8 or 9 touchdowns scored on them when their defense wasn't even on the field. Defensive TDs against the Jets offense, it happened to an abnormal degree. In the Ravens game alone it happened more times than it does for an average team in an entire season. They ranked 5th in yards allowed, Allowed 15 passing TDs vs 19 picks, they were tough to move the ball on. But the reasons explained earlier account for the disparity in points against.
And in addition to those TDs their offense allowed
Their D was way better than 20th. I just prefer the style of the Niners D and I think they have much more talent in the front 7 which I value more. And I think the Niners D should remain elite, as Justin Smith slows down Aldon Smith should improve.
And there is no question in my mind they upgraded their talent base overall. But they aren't matching their turnover differential numbers from last season, which were historic. I could see SF being anything from a 10-6 division champ to not even making the playoffs.
So than the 49ers will need to be lucky to repeat last years
performance. Well we know that isn't gonna happen because the Giants have the market cornered on luck, just ask any Eagles fan, or 49ers fan for that matter. The Giants put a blueprint out for beating the 49ers and the NFL is a copycat league. Good luck trying to duplicate Eli's performance but QB's will take more sacks and throw it away more to reduce turnovers. Punters will try to duplicate Weatherfords performance to reduce the field position advantage. As much as coaches emphasize turnovers every week they will beat that drum harder the week they play the 49ers. Good team but not as good as last year.
will probably jump up and surprise people this year. SF is not clinching their division by Thanksgiving again. All 3 of them are flawed but have some things to like about them. Arizona closed very strong last season. Seattle has a very good defense and if Flynn is decent they could be solid. I even like the Rams more than most people. They had a good offseason, and i think they entered this offseason with more talent than their 2-14 record would indicate. Just massive injury and a rough sked contributed to them underachieving badly. Entering last season they were the hot pick to win that division and most people thought they were better than SF
Cosell demolished Kolb last year in his game tape study, saying he was not a legitimate NFL roster quality QB, not even a backup, because his pocket presence is brutal.
for several reasons. My exposure to Skelton is limited because there wasn't much reason to be watching the Cardinals in the 2nd half of last season. I did get to see him play one full game (at philly) and was more impressed with him in that one than I've ever been with Kolb.
Hopefully teams have learned to avoid trading for Eagle backup QBs
I know Cossell isn't the end all be all, but to have him go ahead and say the guy isn't even a quality back up really makes me scratch my head at how on earth Arizona gave the Eagles what they did.
Always drops the knowledge, and summarizes things as only he can...
"Ya know what these guys always miss tho?
1) They DON'T HAVE TO GO 13-3 to win the Super Bowl. They only need to get to the playoffs. Then it's just a game of matchups. The entire NFC West is playing a harder schedule.
2) Alex Smith peformance DID NOT start last year. Down the stretch after the Eagles game in 2010 (7 games), he Threw 8 TDs and ONE pick. In the 2011 playoffs he threw 5 TDs and ZERO picks. That means over the last 25 games he has thrown 30 TDs and 6 INTs. Alexs biggest problem has ALWAYS been RELUCTANCE to throw the ball. He has never been a guy who threw wildly into coverage. He held the ball unless he was sure. Under Harbaugh he is sure what his read is FAR, FAR more often and that's why he doesn't throw picks. We can criticise him for not making the pass he should and being reluctant to cut it loose, but taking chances has never been his problem...and that goes all the way back to college.
3) These guys always forget one REALLY, REALLY big thing: The Lockout. We didn't even see how good the Niners could be last year. The 49ers were supposed to be in BIG, BIG trouble because they had no time to install their offense and defense. Despite that disadvantage, they produced their best season in recent memory. This guy quotes all of those close games, but many of them were early on while the team was still learning the systems. They only put up about 200 yards of offense on several occasions early on and slowly opened up the attack every week. They were a different team at the finish than they were at the start.
Look, the Niners likely won't go 13-3 again this year. Ya know what tho? THEY DON'T NEED TO. The team that won the Super Bowl last year went 9-7 in the regular season. How did they win it? A D that could get to the QB with 4 and drop 7 into coverage against teams that could only pass (Packers, Pats). Who did the Giants have the most trouble with? Niners. That game could have gone either way. Guess who else can get there with 4 and can stop the run with only the front 7?
Alexs biggest problem has ALWAYS been RELUCTANCE to throw the ball
This isn't analysis. It's up there with discussions on grit, clutch, determination, "wanting it more", etc.
Quote:
3) These guys always forget one REALLY, REALLY big thing: The Lockout. We didn't even see how good the Niners could be last year. The 49ers were supposed to be in BIG, BIG trouble because they had no time to install their offense and defense.
Applies to every team, and particularly, every team with a new coach.
Can the Niners duplicate 2011 in terms of on-field play, regardless of how it's reflected in the win/loss column? Sure. Are the odds extremely low because of a number of fortunate occurrences all coalescing into one magical season? Yes.
Alex Smith will not repeat what he did
last year and until we dismantle the
Saints they still scare me the next team
I fear go ahead and Laugh its Philthy thirdly
the Niners then say the Pack .
And it was pointed out correctly that the 2011 niners offense was Better than the 97 giants offense. Vernon Davis and the San Fran Oline were much better than what the 97 giants ran out there. Still, both teams won with insanely opportunistic defenses. Eventually the chicken came home to roost for both teams.
The Giants didn't just have the playoff run they did because of their
I know as a 49er fan you have to pretend that having a QB that can make a throw like that one to Manningham against the Patriots isn't important because Smith physically can't make it and probably won't even try to if you're right about his "reluctance," but the formula is pass rush + QB = shot to win SB, if in. Not just one or the other.
Niners protected the ball incredibly well last season
They didn't allow Smith to put it in harms way. With their new 'weapons' on offense Harbaugh thinks he can 'open things up'. With this guy as his trigger man that will result in more turnovers. A lot more.
The top quarterbacks, with six or seven exceptions in 46 Super Bowls, have won the Super Bowl and it's getting more quarterback driven, not less. Just look at the list of winners.
Alex Smith is not a top quarterback so the only question is whether or not that very good defense is good enough to become one of those very, very rare exceptions. Are they as good as the 2002 Bucs or the 2000 Ravens? Time will tell.
Which is against our biggest weakness in the OLine. That is a matchup this Giants OL has struggled with two times now. And with Aldon and Bowman both getting better, they can be incredible. I expect the Giants to be a better team and have a better OL than last year this season. But I don't feel confident against a front 7 like San Fran's.
I'm huge on the Giants this season. But I think the Niners are once again a threat to us because of their pass rush. They have a chance to exploit our biggest hole more than any other team.
bad mouth the opposition but he made it quite clear that he thought Aldon Smith benefits tremendously from the attention Justin Smith garners. Justin Smith will be 33 this season. Let's see what happens when Justin declines soon before anointing Aldon and that 49ers front.
The biggest reason the Giants won the Super Bowl was that their QB could be counted on to make plays in tough spots. Think Alex Smith is hitting Manningham for a TD on 3rd and 17? Think again.
The 49ers DID go somewhere. Home. Live with that while you're watching them struggle when that +28 turnover ratio normalizes.
Now, they could have 3-4 fewer wins and still come out on top in that division.
Suck it San Fran. Regress on this.
I think they win the division, but not as a top-2 seed in the NFC.
Still, defense is legit, Harbaugh is a good coach, Smith can handle that game manager role, and the division hasn't improved much.
Go Terps : 8/6/2012 11:43 am
Teams that thrive on +28 turnover ratios don't maintain.
Troy Aikman hit on this theme on Mike Francesa's show all of last season. Once it became clear the 49ers would compete in the NFC (around November when they beat the Giants) his weekly concern was that come playoff time the 49ers would lack the ability to move the ball and score in a crucial situation and it would cost them. He was absolutely right.
The 49ers got all the way to overtime of the championship game by riding a stout defense and an offense that took no chances and thus made no mistakes. That's a credit to them, but their margin for error was smaller than any of the other playoff teams. They know this, and that's why they:
- signed Randy Moss
- signed Mario Manningham
- threw their hat in the ring for Peyton Manning
This year they're going to learn the hard way that Alex Smith can't increase that margin of error with explosive plays to Moss and Manningham. And they damn sure won't be +28 again.
After reading the article, I see the author believes they will win 9 games at the most this year. I'd take that wager with him. I'd bet they will get 10 or more. They still play in the NFC West.
Solid defense, good players on offense, average conservative QB. I'm thinking 11 wins. What say you?
Yeah, he'll repeat that performance.
Logically, will an aging Justin Smith have another monster year? Or Carlos Rogers?
It just makes sense that they will regress this year.
I put the 49ers in the legit contender lot where their ultimate record will be a product of health and luck, as it is for most good teams, but with a bias toward falling back simply because Alex Smith needs to show more, and as the article notes regression to the mean on TOs is highly likely regardless of what Smith does.
At this point he almost certainly is what he is. He's an 8th year QB that has only once broken the 3,000 yard mark and has never thrown more than 18 TDs in a season. There's a reason he led the league in sacks and had the fewest picks...it's because the training wheels are still most definitely on for him.
the excuse that he never had a chance. San Francisco made a massive investment in him...HE is the one that is supposed to have elevated his teammates' play by now.
It's not as if the team is lacking in talent. The offensive line is ok, the RB is quite good, the TE is very good, and the defense is fairly stout with one of the best LBs in the game.
The biggest problem in SF has been the passing game, and from what I've seen from that team the QB position has been the problem.
Link - ( New Window )
Who comes up with this kind of crap?
When defenses can ignore the territory outside the numbers without much risk because of your QB's arm strength, your offense is gonna have a bad time.
seattle and arizona are two very talented teams
1) New Sherriff in town ...
Change leads to enthusiasm - What they did last year may keep that going albeit slightly lower ...
2) An offensive minded coach will put in a system that no DC has had to face ... No knowledge about tendencies ... nor game plans ... but an intelligent HC like Harbaugh will be able to find ways to attack those defenses who don't have enough information to counter ...
Now with a full year ... opposing DCs now can see a lot what SF is doing and will figure out how to adapt ...
So with that - a little less enthusiasm and a lot more information for opposing DCs to prepare for ... they'll drop down a few games ...
Recall even Mangini was call Mangenious after his first year ...
Moss get's popped by a DB and disappears for the game....
Smith doesn't throw to Moss enough, and all of a sudden the "effort" isn't there.....
Same with close games. Yes, clutch play makes a difference, but last year we got Ws in a few games we had no business winning, like the Arizona game. You can make a case for Giants and Niners both taking a step back.
The difference is the Giants have a lot of room to improve on defense and they have the players to do it, as shown by the playoffs.
The Niners have nowhere to go but down on defense and on offense they need Alex Smith elevate his game. Good luck with that.
1. AZ. gets decent play from their QB.
2. SEA.- See #1 I.E., better than Smith.
Both teams have pretty decent D's
We like to romanticize the Ravens and Bucs for winning with terrible QBs, but those are the exceptions to the rule... and those defenses were legendary.
Also, Smith has never had a decent WR corp to throw to. It would be nice to see Smith and SF to take a step back, but I don't think so.
They absolutely could have beaten New England, no question about it. With Alex Smith. He plays like he did last season, they can win a Super Bowl with him.
That 49ers defense wasn't exactly the reason they made the NFC Championship either - they were trying to give away that Divisional Round game against New Orleans towards the end. Smith stepped up along with Vernon Davis and carried that defense to the next round.
It's not happening again.
So yes, in Magical Christmasland (i.e. 2011), the Niners COULD have won the Super Bowl in 2011.
That's not saying much.
I think Alex Smith is a ~20th ranked QB in the league, a good game manager. He does have more weapons this year. I don't think he'll regress, I think he'll have more INTs than last year but overall he should still be a decent QB.
That defense features a ton of young talent. People here jizz themselves at the thought of what JPP can become in the future, Aldon Smith is the closest thing to JPP in the league. He is a future DPOY. And surrounding him is a bunch of ridiculous defensive talent including Willis, Bowman, Smith, McDonald, and a good secondary.
I think the Niners will be a Ravens like defense for these next 5 years, always in the Top 5 and sometimes the best in the league. If you asked who the 10 best defensive players in the NFC were last year, you could easily have named 5 Niners on that list.
I agree that Smith is mediocre, but that defense is scary good. They also have more offensive talent surrounding Smith now too. I think they're for real.
Moss is like a scary movie villain, I'll need to be convinced that he's 100% dead before I stop worrying about him.
Hell, ask yourself this: what's the significant difference between the 2011 Niners and the 2009-present New York Jets? A real fortuitous run of turnover-free play from an otherwise-bad offense.
Kyle spells it out nicely - in order to get to the NFC title game, they had virtually everything break their way. Alex Smith had the (meager) season of his life. Do you think it's likely he repeats that interception percentage? The Niners had a MASSIVE positive turnover differential. That's highly unlikely to happen again. They were extremely healthy all year long. Again, not likely to happen again to the same extent.
That defense makes them a solid team and a likely playoff team, but Alex Smith is a huge handicap for them.
Going further on the Jets comparison, are the Jets contenders this upcoming season? You'll say no. Ask yourself: why not? Consider the following:
Niners Giveaways = 10
Niners Takeaways = 38
Jets Giveaways = 34
Jets Takeaways = 31
If the Jets had 24 less giveaways last year, you don't think that's a 12-4 team (laughably still a wildcard because the Patriots exist) with the league petrified of them in the playoffs?
Give Smith some credit in that he threw a rope on the game winning TD in a very small window.
SF is a very good team.
It's not quite that simple, but that's a huge difference between the two teams. Gholston busting really hurt the Jets, because they've been craving a top pass rushing talent for a while now.
The Jets finished 20th in points this season, and one of the main reasons why was because of a mediocre pass rush. If they had an Aldon Smith, they would be a scary D once again because they'd have a pass rush worth worrying over for the offense.
I'm not saying the Niners will be SB contenders every year, but with that defense I think they'll be in the playoff mix pretty much every year and have a couple of real chances to make deep runs.
But that's not what's important.
The Jets offense posted 21 more turnovers than the Niners offense did last season. The Jets offense was much less efficient and, against the Ravens, was so comically bad that they lost the game in like the first 10 minutes.
If the Jets offense had 10 turnovers, like the Niners offense had did, you don't think the Jets defense would have allowed ~15 points per game, like the Niners defense did?
And that mediocre defense is what caused them to play from behind more often than the Niners. So that's why the turnover comparison is irrelevant imo. You can't just compare turnovers and say if this happens, then that happens. The reason the Niners committed less turnovers on offense was because they had a much better defense than the Jets last season. And because of that they were able to play with the lead more often. And on top of that, they also had the far better running game with Gore instead of Greene to allow them to place less responsibility on the QB.
The Niners turnover ratio won't be the same, they got lucky last year. I totally agree with that. But they are a much better team than the Jets, because they have a better defense that allowed their offense to play a safer style.
Sanchez threw 437 pass attempts when he was trailing or tied, Smith threw 232 pass attempts when he was trailing or tied.
Sanchez had 14 INTs in those situations, Smith had 1 INT.
Smith only threw 21 passes all last season when the Niners were trailing by 9 or more points. Sanchez threw 170 passes last year when the Jets were trailing by 9 or more points.
I think you overestimate the Jets D. The lack of a pass rush for the Jets has been a big issue for them. Their leading sack artist had like 6.5 sacks last year. The Jets D forced Sanchez to play from way behind many times, forcing him to make throws. The Niners were never forced to chuck it and catch up last year because their D held it down for them.
We've seen what the Niners can achieve with the absolute best case scenario from their current QB, which fueled + coincided with a confluence of luck in the turnover department and also led to tremendous field position advantage that (artificially) bolstered their team's defensive rankings.
We've seen this story before. Until the QB gets upgraded, it doesn't end well.
I actually don't think they are that supremely talented on defense, personnel-wise. Especially the last couple of years with some of their key pieces aging. I think it speaks to Rex's schemes and coaching ability that they are as good as they have been, IMO. Revis is obviously exceptional and gives them much more flexibility in their defensive schemes.
I like some of the things they did this winter though and think they'll be better on D. Again, the problem is that their offense is so questionable and will probably be top 10 as far as giveaways are concerned.
And put me down as well for Smith not maintaining that historically good turnover rate.
That's what I see for the Niners this year, I'm not calling for them to repeat last year. But I think they'll make the playoffs again and be a threat because of that defense.
It's a QB league no doubt, but one of the few ways to stop a great QB is through a great pass rush like the Giants proved twice over the last 5 years. The Niners have a dominant front 7 and pass rush, filled with young talent. I just see them being peripherary contenders like the Ravens for the next handful of years, never a favorite because of the QB but always a threat.
"Ya know what these guys always miss tho?
1) They DON'T HAVE TO GO 13-3 to win the Super Bowl. They only need to get to the playoffs. Then it's just a game of matchups. The entire NFC West is playing a harder schedule.
2) Alex Smith peformance DID NOT start last year. Down the stretch after the Eagles game in 2010 (7 games), he Threw 8 TDs and ONE pick. In the 2011 playoffs he threw 5 TDs and ZERO picks. That means over the last 25 games he has thrown 30 TDs and 6 INTs. Alexs biggest problem has ALWAYS been RELUCTANCE to throw the ball. He has never been a guy who threw wildly into coverage. He held the ball unless he was sure. Under Harbaugh he is sure what his read is FAR, FAR more often and that's why he doesn't throw picks. We can criticise him for not making the pass he should and being reluctant to cut it loose, but taking chances has never been his problem...and that goes all the way back to college.
3) These guys always forget one REALLY, REALLY big thing: The Lockout. We didn't even see how good the Niners could be last year. The 49ers were supposed to be in BIG, BIG trouble because they had no time to install their offense and defense. Despite that disadvantage, they produced their best season in recent memory. This guy quotes all of those close games, but many of them were early on while the team was still learning the systems. They only put up about 200 yards of offense on several occasions early on and slowly opened up the attack every week. They were a different team at the finish than they were at the start.
Look, the Niners likely won't go 13-3 again this year. Ya know what tho? THEY DON'T NEED TO. The team that won the Super Bowl last year went 9-7 in the regular season. How did they win it? A D that could get to the QB with 4 and drop 7 into coverage against teams that could only pass (Packers, Pats). Who did the Giants have the most trouble with? Niners. That game could have gone either way. Guess who else can get there with 4 and can stop the run with only the front 7?
Sorry Haters....Niners aren't going anywhere. "
This isn't analysis. It's up there with discussions on grit, clutch, determination, "wanting it more", etc.
Applies to every team, and particularly, every team with a new coach.
Can the Niners duplicate 2011 in terms of on-field play, regardless of how it's reflected in the win/loss column? Sure. Are the odds extremely low because of a number of fortunate occurrences all coalescing into one magical season? Yes.
These thoughts aren't exclusive.
last year and until we dismantle the
Saints they still scare me the next team
I fear go ahead and Laugh its Philthy thirdly
the Niners then say the Pack .
I know as a 49er fan you have to pretend that having a QB that can make a throw like that one to Manningham against the Patriots isn't important because Smith physically can't make it and probably won't even try to if you're right about his "reluctance," but the formula is pass rush + QB = shot to win SB, if in. Not just one or the other.
Alex Smith is not a top quarterback so the only question is whether or not that very good defense is good enough to become one of those very, very rare exceptions. Are they as good as the 2002 Bucs or the 2000 Ravens? Time will tell.
They aren't a contender; but still figure to be favored in the division.
I'm huge on the Giants this season. But I think the Niners are once again a threat to us because of their pass rush. They have a chance to exploit our biggest hole more than any other team.
GB, Chi, Det, NO, Giants, NE, Buf, Jets (2nd road game in a row away from west)
Outside of the Rams, they struggled against both Arizona & Seattle
They are a very good team, but they still have A. Smith at QB. They will play 7 where they face a better QB. Plus a few more where they are no better.
The 49ers DID go somewhere. Home. Live with that while you're watching them struggle when that +28 turnover ratio normalizes.
Posting 35 and then 37 more in the playoffs on that shit defense made me so, so happy from the standpoint of understanding the sport.