Bob Papa on Cruz

I know this is a business and the Giants fully understand that, they're run by smart people who i'm sure rarely let emotion get in the way of conducting their business. However, does anyone else think the Giants have to be at least slightly miffed by this?

That's alot of guaranteed money for his position.

based on Brandon Walsh's list. Harvin, Bowe, and Wallace are the only really comparable guys there, and they've all reported higher guarantee totals. (Jennings and Welker are significantly older than Cruz, and Amendola has never put in a season half as good as what Victor did in 2011 and 2012.)

That said, "guaranteed" totals are not always a 1:1 comparison. The actual wording of the guarantee matters rather a lot-- sometimes the guarantees are only for injury (which means that the player can be cut for simple underperformance), and sometimes it includes pseudo-guarantees like option bonuses.

And it isn't just about the guarantees, as some of you guys are saying. All the numbers matter. Particularly for a player as young as Victor, who has a stronger likelihood than most of playing out the entirety of a long-term contract. If a young player focuses too much on the up-front bonus, they end up in an Osi situation, playing out the late years of a long-term contract for a less-than-premium salary. (Also, with regard to the effect on the team's salary cap, it's the total salary/bonus payments to the player that matter.)

Couldn't agee more. I trust the Giants brain trust here but just don't think 7 per will get it done. Just being realistic.

19 TDs in two seasons, something like 8 or 9 TDs longer than 60 yards.....seems like a game changer to me.

Cruz never had a nice big rookie deal like Harvin and Bowe. This is his first, and maybe only, shot at a bigtime contract.

receiver, not a WR in the sense of Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald or even Hakeem Nicks. Not to say he doesn't play WR, but his big plays come from the slot.
$21 mill is guaranteed - that is fair money. He might be able to get $23/24 mill, but remember the Giants set X amount per player and that is all they will play. If Victor or Tom Condon want more that that slot, they won't get it.
He will probably sign for between the $21 mill on the table and $23 mill. Guess he will wait out the period until April 19 to see if anything comes in, then sign.

years ago without Cruz's game breaking plays.

Strange comment.

that Cruz isn't taking the "NYC endorsements" angle all that seriously here. Maybe we can finally put that one to rest.

How in the world can you look at Cruz's impact the past two seasons and consider him not a game changer?

Cruz's productivity suffered with Nicks being a shadow of himself. His big plays were way down.

Don't get me wrong, I think he is a tremendous player (remember, I'm the one who got laughed at on BBI when I said he was the most impressive offensive rookie the Giants have had since Shockey). But I feel the Giants' scheme puts him in tremendous position to succeed. Just like it did with Steve Smith.

Those are game changers. He is a nice slot receiver. The Giants are being more than fair to him. Without Eli, he isn't in a chunky soup commercial.

totally agree. But Cruz had a very good year last year, but not the same type of year he had in 2011. He did have a lot of drops. And there were games where he was very much kept under wraps.

Not Dierdorf. That meathead Greg Buttle.

There are a lot of games where he doesnt show up or is shut down. 2 catches for 40 yards.

Cruz vs Redskins - gamechanger

Cruz vs Seahawks - gamechanger

Cruz vs Eagles - gamechanger

Cruz should also realize that he could be franchised in 2014, meaning while he gets paid handsomely that year, the risk of injury and only collecting that year (versus guaranteed money exceeding that with the current offer).

Cruz might not be a FA completely until 2015....that's a long time away esp when you consider the injury factor/performance.

I think he'd be smart to take the offer on the table.

Well no shit, he's not one of the two best in the game. Not quite sure what that's supposed to prove, but whatever.

you have to keep in mind is the domino effect here. If you give Cruz $9 million, Nicks is probably gone. Or they keep Nicks and JPP is probably gone.

Who is easier to replace needs to be part of the evaluation.

than who is?

He'll sign. He'd be crazy to play on the tender. One slip on a slick field during OTAs and he's Terrell Thomased.

right, but I think he was kept under wraps because teams were not going to let him beat them and were able to give him a lot of attention with Nicks was dinged and Manningham gone.

He's not Megatron able to beat the defense over the top despite being the focal point. But if you pair him with another reasonable threat, he's going to continue to make a lot of big plays. Even last year, he won the Skins game for us with that bomb at the end.

for 5, maybe 6 years(most likely 5) imo

I didn't expect Cruz to have the same production this past year as he did in 11. Even if Nicks was healthy I didn't expect the stats he put up in 11.

could've sworn it was Dierdorf....

now that you say it, it rings true

Agree. But you qualified it with "if you pair him"

I'm ready to give $7 million a year to an outstanding (maybe the best) complimentary WR in the NFL right now, but $9 million?

I'll tell you what makes me nervous too. He seemed to get rattled some after the Pittsburgh shot. That bears watching.

excellent points.

I also think the Giants want to see JPP come on this year.

While we can all agree the man is a talent, there have been players like him who flash, but never realize their potential. I'm not saying JPP is this, but you never know.

Performances of JPP, Nicks (staying healthy), and Cruz (esp if not signed) will tell a lot about what direction the Giants go.

thats ridiculous. Take a look at game logs for WR's like Fitzgerald and Megatron and you see the same thing.

Some of Fitzgeralds performances last year.

1 catch 11 yards
1 catch 4 yards
3 catches 32 yards
1 catch 22 yards
1 catch 2 yards

How about Calvin Johnson?

He was on another planet last season but even he had a couple games where he only caught 3 balls for about 30 yards. And he's had worse performances throughout his career.

All receivers have games like that. All of them.

guaranteed over 5 years I'm okay with NYG letting him walk.

people think I'm overstating this too, but I honestly don't think so in the case of Cruz.

Cruz has a unique popularity in the NFL based on his personality and his black-hispanic ethnic background. He is currently playing in the #1 media market in the world.

How much money will he lose if he leaves New York? Some think he won't. I happen to think he could lose a ton.

Plus, being in New York also sets up better for after his career. He could become what Tiki should have become off the field.

Would you trade Cruz for Fitzgerald or Johnson?

I would.

That is the point to those who want to compare his guarantee money to top WRs in the NFL. He is probably the top slot receiver.
He deserves to get paid as the top slot man, not top WR I would suppose.

is for him to sign a 2 or 3-year deal which will give him much more financial security (maybe $10 M guaranteed), and yet allow him to go on the open market as a "true" free agent when he is still young enough to get another big contract.

This seems like the best solution for both sides. If you're him, you don't want to accept the 1-year tender, and you don't want to be tied up for 5 years at what you consider a below-market rate contract. Punting the whole thing down the road for a few years, when the cap rate might be higher, might be the best solution.

But I'd be willing to lose Nicks to keep Cruz. Nicks can't stay healthy, and if Randle becomes the player they expect him to be he can fill Nicks' spot. There's no way Jernigan could even be a pale shadow of Cruz.

with the idea that a long shot to even make a roster 2 years ago, attempting to capitalize on unexpected success, can be considered greedy.

This might be his only window at a big contract, and in the NFL it is all about timing.

BTW, Cruz lost the Seahawks game. He admitted to running a poor route on the game-winning INT that he tipped up into the air.

Again, not picking on Cruz, but just clarifying that was a bad example.

is definitely a game changer, but a game changer we can't afford to pay more than $7M a year. The Giants are doing what they always do, namely assigning a value to a player. If that player can get more, then they let him walk. With Cruz, there may be a little wiggle room, but not much.

The Giants will let him play on his tender this season, and then let him leave if necessary. I doubt they franchise him next year. It would just be too expensive, especially given all the other players they have to resign. They would also still have Nicks, Randle, JJ, and Murphy.

I think Cruz is making a mistake by not taking the offer. Nobody is going to sign him this season because they would have to give up a first round pick. His value is also less than somebody like Wallace because he is seen as a slot receiver. He could easily get hurt, see Smith, Steve, and will lose endorsement opportunities by not being in NY.

That makes no fucking sense. If guaranteed money is the only thing that matters then why didn't Mike Wallace just make 30 million over 5 years and just have it all guaranteed? He doesn't because he knows he can get a lot of that extra 35 million that isn't guaranteed.

If Nicks can't stay healthy, then obviously that is the smarter choice.

But I think the Giants are obviously trying to keep both first. Let's see how this plays out.

You guys are on crack if you think he is in their class.

The Giants need to stick to their guns on this one. I'd let him play for the 2.8 mil if he doesn't want the contract they are offering. I agree with all of Eric's "concerns" about giving Cruz too much $$.

I agree 100%. Cruz was getting punished heavily over the middle last year, and it seemed to me at times his drops were due to him trying to get in position to take a hit that might not have been coming. I'm not saying alligator arms all the time, but there were times that it happened. It indeed bears watching. He will continue to be punished in the middle, especially if the outside receivers are no more a factor than they were last season.

what the Giants are currently offering and let's not forget, Cruz signing his tender and then playing out the year in order to become a FA is no guarantee. The Giants could franchise him next year and the year after that.

For those arguing that Wallace got $27M guaranteed...again Wallace is a guy on the outside...big, big difference. Plus I truly believe there is the issue of where he wants to play and his legacy in this area in terms of living here, being a local hero and earning a lot in off field endorsements.

Which is why I say Cruz, who seems to be concerned about his image and legacy in the NY/NJ area, has to be smart about what he wants out of all this. To me, making a reasonable, comparable salary and earning money off the field while maintaining his local image would be very important to him.

I think this gets done and hopefully at the right price. Cruz has to realize how he benefits, as Eric pointed out, from the Giants' offense and Nicks being there. What if Randle comes on this year...the beneficiary of all this will once again be Cruz as teams will not be able to double cover him. There were many games this past year where Cruz was invisible. I want Cruz back but not at any cost.

the Cruz is no Fitzgerald or Johnson comments are ground-breaking. So, Cruz isn't the in the top 2 WRs in the league? No kidding. Guess what? Neither is Nicks.

Game before the tynes miss. He also made just as large a difference as nicks against Tampa. Big day against New Orleans. Also at Washington despite the L. And I needn't remind about the ineffective or not suited up nicks at year's end.

The devaluing of Cruz this year because he didn't match 2011's production is pretty hilarious at this point.

Eric, the Seattle game where he was also responsible for huge plays that kept us in it? He's an accountable guy, you're nitpicking

thing Cruz needs to keep in mind in terms of playing for a contract...if Nicks stays healthy, you have Randle maturing into a much bigger role and a new H-Back/TE who is coming off an 80-catch season. They obviously want to take a look at guys like Adrien Robinson, and Murphy and Jernigan too.

So even if he has a "great" season in 2013, his catches may be down.

who knows what they will do with Wilson as a receiver.

As an aside, LTS is right. The devaluation of Cruz here is hilarious.

Nicks. We drafted well to create a strong passing offense...that's what's going to carry us. If tough financial decisions have to be made, I'd make them in other areas.

is that Randle makes Nicks more replaceable than JJ makes Cruz.

but I'm waiting to see how Hakeem holds up this year + how Randle performs.

We may not need to invest a lot in nicks if Randle lives up to the billing.

and that is all he will pay. There might be some wiggle left on the guarantee money, but I doubt there is much.

I tend to agree I'd rather have Cruz over Nicks if they could only keep one because I think Randle will be able to play as well as Nicks, but Randle is not likely to be an effective slot receiver.

Cruz for 2 more years at basically $7m per when you consider the RFA tender this year and a possible franchise tag next year.

He might walk at that point, but we'd have him this year and next, and it'd help keep Nicks and JPP around. I'll take that over forking over more for Cruz at this point.