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Interesting stat from NFLN

TexasGmenFan : 9/16/2013 9:16 am
So I decided to turn on NFL AM this morning while getting ready because I'm a glutton for punishment and they had mentioned the following:

Over the last 50 games, Eli has *63* INTs (!) Now if you do the math, 50 games stretches back to the crazy pick year of 2010 and of course also gets to take into account these last 2 games...but that number is insanely high

(Disclaimer: the last 50 games also happens to include Eli carrying an entire team over the course of a season and snagging a 2nd ring/SB MVP combo...just saying)

In any event, that number when you think about it was well, crazy, to hear. I think unfortunately Eli's legacy will always include the INTs as part of who he was, but I really wonder where the blame lies for such high rates, especially during his prime (we're looking at & gt; 1 INT/game).

Do you blame it on:

a. Eli making poor reads?
b. Eli trying to do too much as he watches his run game and D struggle?
c. Sheer miscommunication with WRs?
d. other?

Of course, most remember 2010 was the year of the tipped pick so I guess you could throw "luck" in there as well.

I had started a thread about why our offense can't operate like GB's yesterday and so as a point of comparison, Rodgers had 14 INT - total - across 2011 and 2012.

If we're being realistic, this team goes as far as Eli goes. That's how its been for a few years now. I just hope they can figure this out. Saying simplify the offense means nothing...
all of the above.  
Britt in VA : 9/16/2013 9:18 am : link
.
I don't care the cause, successful teams don't do this  
Kyle : 9/16/2013 9:23 am : link
"But we won a SB!"

Eli and the offense produced two interceptions in those final six games. The week prior, when losing to Washington nearly derailed our season until Victor Cruz went 99 yards to save it, we had three against a shit Redskins team at home.

We have turned the ball over far too often since we have "unleashed" Eli starting in 2009.
Accept it  
MrX : 9/16/2013 9:24 am : link
I think it's pretty clear that Eli is a QB that throws a lot of INTs. You have to take the bad with the good. Eli seems to force a lot of throws that maybe other QBs would throw away or take a sack. Sometimes it ends up in our favor with a clutch catch, sometimes it's merely an incompletion but other times it's a pick.

What I would like to see from Eli, with help from the coaches, is to throw more balls away, shorter routes and place some throws in places only his WRs can make the catch.

Despite that, I think besides Rodgers, I would not trade Eli for another QB in the league (Rodgers is younger and has proven he can win).
As I stated in another thread  
dep026 : 9/16/2013 9:26 am : link
Are we running the right type of offense?

If you dont have a running game, and teams arent afraid of PA, this offense will be hurt by it.
They said during the game yesterday  
Curtis in VA : 9/16/2013 9:30 am : link
that Eli has the most interceptions in the league since he was drafted.

" 'Look, if you don't throw at least two interceptions..."  
Blueballz : 9/16/2013 9:32 am : link
"you're not taking enough chances." - Bill Parcells

Dear lord, stop with this inane, sports talk show level analysis of Eli.

In our silly vertical "run and shoot" Gilbride offensive scheme, Eli will throw a lot of interceptions. Any QB will. Ita absolutely inane to compare Eli's accuracy % and TD/int ratios to a short, west coast/spread type offense of GB, NE, Peyton, NO, etc.,
I wish there was a way to only credit  
Diver_Down : 9/16/2013 9:33 am : link
legitimate INTS. Bad throws, mis-communication between WR/QB, Better DB making a play, etc. I'm fine piling up the stats that are deserving, but the fluke tip play should not be stacked on the QB. For example, yesterday's tip/kick/int shouldn't be charged to Eli. Heck of a head's up play on the defense, but a string of events that Eli had no control over.
Blueballz,  
Curtis in VA : 9/16/2013 9:35 am : link
I think the point of the thread flew right over your head.
I think it's because Eli treads very close to the line  
Go Terps : 9/16/2013 9:36 am : link
of "good decision/bad decision" in the hopes of making a positive play. It's been said here before...over the course of his career Eli has made a pretty large number of ridiculous "H-O-R-S-E"-type throws. The Manningham throw obviously is the first to come to mind, but there have been many others.

That comes at a cost. That cost is a higher number of picks. At this point he is what he is and I don't expect a change. I'd argue it's been well worth it over the years, but it is frustrating. As for these past two games, I just think he played like shit in both. He's got to be better.
They used to call this being a "gunslinger".  
Britt in VA : 9/16/2013 9:38 am : link
It's very Favre-esque.
Curtis  
Blueballz : 9/16/2013 9:38 am : link
I don't think you are too knowledgeable about football.
I blame the system  
whobetta : 9/16/2013 9:39 am : link
how many "unlucky" bounces has this guy had when throwing into narrow windows or hitting off of fingers/hands/feet whatever, additionally how many miscommunication issues have we seen also where he throw to 1 spot and the receiver is in another.

just don't see that nearly as often as with other teams with top level QB's and WR's.

thats all i have to say about that
Britt  
Go Terps : 9/16/2013 9:41 am : link
I disagree with that. Favre had vastly superior throwing ability to Eli, and he leaned on it his whole career. He wasn't a guy to study the playbook, try to win the pre-snap battle, etc.

That isn't Eli.
Brett Favre has thrown more INTS than any QB in history.  
Curtis in VA : 9/16/2013 9:44 am : link
He had a 3.3 INT percentage.

Eli Manning also has a 3.3 INT percentage.

Blueballz,  
Curtis in VA : 9/16/2013 9:45 am : link
lol
I wasn't talking overall...  
Britt in VA : 9/16/2013 9:46 am : link
I was just talking about making ill advised throws other QB's likely wouldn't consider.
um...  
Cam in MO : 9/16/2013 9:50 am : link
Quote:
In our silly vertical "run and shoot" Gilbride offensive scheme, Eli will throw a lot of interceptions. Any QB will. Ita absolutely inane to compare Eli's accuracy % and TD/int ratios to a short, west coast/spread type offense of GB, NE, Peyton, NO, etc.,


This is not a "run and shoot" offense.

There is not a whole lot of wr motion, they use a TE and FB in traditional formations more often than not, and the set without a FB is almost always from a traditional shotgun formation.


A too normal sequence  
oldutican : 9/16/2013 9:52 am : link
1st Down: Throw ball down field: inc
2nd Down: Run draw out of shotgun or run out of pro-set: Gain 3 yards or less.
3rd down: Forced throw downfield: Interceptio
"Run and shoot"  
Blueballz : 9/16/2013 10:06 am : link
Yes I'm very aware we are not a classical "run and shoot" offense, hence the quotes. But Gilbride, is heavily influenced by it with the heavy use of option routes.
Eli throws a lot of Int's  
HomerJones45 : 9/16/2013 10:13 am : link
Accuracy in short passes is not his strong suit. deal with it.

Has it ever occurred to some of you yokels that Eli has had the success he's had because of the system he's in and not in spite of it?
homer  
whobetta : 9/16/2013 10:17 am : link
is it possible? yes, but is it also possible the offense would be better and/or eli more consistent in a different style?

I think at this point one has to say that is very possible.
we use  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/16/2013 10:26 am : link
an evolved version of the run and shoot which incorporates a lot of option routes by the wide receivers. That's the biggest reason for the interceptions.

It's a boom or bust offense and when it's on, it can be great. But it requires wide receivers making big reads while running the routes and also requires that Eli not only figures out the holes in the defense, but figures out which decisions the wide receivers are making.

In today's NFL, where players are constantly missing time for injuries and young players stepping in, there is no chance for Eli and the receivers to truly get on the same page.

Furthermore, it is a lot harder when the offensive line is generally atrocious at pass protection and Eli has even less time to figure it all out.

The Packers had a huge advantage for a while in that they had a four year stretch where all of their wide receivers missed a total of like 4 games (can't remember the exact number) and that does wonders for QB/WR chemistry.

We need to abandon this too-clever-by-half passing system because we are going to fail far more often than systems with other great quarterbacks.
Every offense is great when it's "on"  
Kyle : 9/16/2013 10:29 am : link
I never much liked that description of our offense: when it works, it's great. Well, no shit. The goal should be to maximize the probabilities of the offense "working", to maximize the time that we're great.
Kyle  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/16/2013 10:32 am : link
I am assuming you are referring to my post based on what you "quoted" but if you continued to read my post you will notice that I call to abandon said system.
It was more a response to the description used, generally  
Kyle : 9/16/2013 10:33 am : link
spurred by seeing it in your post. It wasn't really a response to you, directly, but I wasn't clear about that.
I really wish we could replace Gilbride with Norv  
Greg from LI : 9/16/2013 10:34 am : link
Norv's a laughable HC but he's a terrific OC, and I've always liked his system. It's very QB-friendly.
You'd think Norv would be a natural fit for Coughlin  
Ten Ton Hammer : 9/16/2013 10:36 am : link
They both love the vertical, big-play game and build their game plans around QB-WR play.
Coughlin brought the options routes here.  
Peter in Atlanta : 9/16/2013 10:41 am : link
It wasn't Gilbride.
Gilbride isn't the one throwing stupid picks  
Go Terps : 9/16/2013 10:44 am : link
.
Yep-  
Cam in MO : 9/16/2013 10:48 am : link
Quote:
Coughlin brought the options routes here.
Peter in Atlanta : 10:41 am
It wasn't Gilbride.


This was his offense he spent time "perfecting" during his year off from coaching, IIRC.





I'm pretty  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/16/2013 10:53 am : link
sure it was the offense that Gilbride developed while he was the OC for Coughlin in Jacksonville
is a pass  
whobetta : 9/16/2013 11:00 am : link
that gets hit by a defenders hand then kicked in the air crazily a "stupid pick"

if the answer is "no", but prefaced with "he shouldn't have thrown it there"

we then have to ask "why was he throwing it there?" then we have to ask, "why was the receiver so so sooo covered?"

From there we can ask, whether Eli was under duress, or was that the best read based on the D look, or was it truly a bad pass, was it the play call, was it audibled, why didn't the WR get off the jamp better ETC.... ETC... ETC...

the point is, that we have more passes thrown into big shit piles of traffic far too often, we have more miscomunication issues than any other team with an "elite" qb and elite WR's. we have more bad luck when it comes to ball magically fallin into waiting defenders' arms.

after all is said and done, could our offense be more productive, more consistent and less Jekyll/Hyde within a different system?

all these young college QB's coming into the league having immense success in their first few years and our offense is having issues when the players have been together for a while now.

I am sorry but all these things point to a system that has seen its time
Do the math  
KeoweeFan : 9/16/2013 11:01 am : link
Assume 4 reads on a long throw and assume Eli always makes the correct read. If it is 80% probable that a WR will make the same read as Eli each time, there is a 41% chance they will end up at different spots.
90% correct reads = 66% chance of success.
95% (19 out of 20) good reads = 81% success (1 out of every 5 long throws will be out of sync).
97 1/2 % correct reads each time finally get you to 90% chance of being on the same page at the end.
The reason I listed all the probabilities is that different receivers have differing abilities to make reads (MM and Shockey at one end and Victor at the other). New WRs will slide up the scale with time (e.g. Myers)
(Of course this is overly simplified, but I erred on the "safe side".)

Too many reads? or
Can a QB be selective re whom he trusts on the same play? e.g. expect Cruz to make all the reads, but tell MM to run as fast as he can to the manhole cover? (my street 2 hand touch experience coming out again.)
Eli has a turnover problem  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 9/16/2013 11:08 am : link
it's one of his defining negative traits as a player and one of the main reasons that he isn't as consistent as he should be.

But I think the game yesterday showed you that Eli gives 0 fucks about his stats. All the talk about Eli's 4 INTs are overblown.


INT 3 occurred when it was 4th and 10 from the Denver 45 with 7 mins left and the Giants down 22 points
INT 4 occurred when it was 2nd and 10 from the Denver 20 with 1 min left and the Giants down 18 points

Those are situations where you want your QB to be aggressive throwing the ball. I don't want no dink and dunk pussy stat padding, I want to try and actually win the game even if I'm down 20 in the 4th. And the way you comeback from down 20 in the 4th is by attempting big plays down the field and trying to put points on the board in the least amount of time possible. Not to mention that INT 2 was a complete fluke.

That's why I'm disappointed that "4 INTs for Eli" is the main story of this game according to the media. INTs are not the reason we lost or even close to it, the Broncos were already well in control before the last 2 INTs.
Eli  
stretch234 : 9/16/2013 11:16 am : link
The only other QB who attempts more down the field passes is Rodgers. His base offense is 3 wide and Finley off the line. Yesterday he is 5 wide sets. This generally allows receivers at all depths of pattern.

Rivers used to do this as well.

The Giants go down the field. Look at what Peyton is throwing vs Eli. One is down the field and 1 is not.

Yesterday, Denver dropped 7 guys most times. Receivers are going to have people on them. That is when he needs to check down. Whether they had Boss, Ballard, Bennett or Myers, the TE is open.
I think it's about time some of the guessing plays are taken out of  
Ace718 : 9/16/2013 11:24 am : link
the playbook. Most of the picks come when the receiver is running an option route. Ball goes one way and the receiver goes the opposite way. You have an excellent receiving corp. Utilize it by running a simple offense.
Also, Eli had 4 pick yesterday but the only one that really bothered  
Ace718 : 9/16/2013 11:26 am : link
me was the pick right before halftime. That was just a bad decision and throw by Eli. The 2nd one was a complete fluke and the other 2 happened with Eli trying to just chuck it garbage time.
Osi  
dep026 : 9/16/2013 11:38 am : link
FTW again.

Its always easiest to blame Eli when we lose? Was he good? Of course not. He missed open guys on non-INT plays too.

But JFC. 19 carries for 23 Yards. You think that may be the main reason our offense blows?
OOOOOO  
Ryan : 9/16/2013 11:53 am : link
Has it correct....

I've rewatched this twice and this is a game that will bother fantasy football minded people far more than others. 2 picks were just slinging it around late in the 4th after the game was out of hand. Another was a fluke bounce off a foot.

That leaves the one before the half which I have no problem with people criticizing the decision to take a shot. But he threw it to the right spot. It was 2 deep coverage, Nicks had inside leverage against man under which dictates on that kind of route that he bend it outside away from the S. For some reason he bent inside at the S very late and never saw the ball - DRC knew where the ball was going to go and more or less ran the route for him. He said he was trying to throw it away which I take as he actually wanted it on the back line of the EZ where either Nicks gets it or no one but he couldn't step into his throw like he wanted to.

So, more or less through 3 1/2 quarters or so when the game was in reach before the defense melted and we allowed the return TD, he played relatively mistake free football (obviously not as productive as we want but there were mistakes everywhere on the offense killing drives). But the 4 INTs just sticks out too much for people not to hang their hat on.

He had 10 INTs in '09, 14 in '09, obviously the outlier in '10 of 25 (but with a lot of bad bounces), 16 in '11 and 15 in '12. In this type of offense I can live with about 1 a game.
2 were flung up for grabs  
TexasGmenFan : 9/16/2013 12:38 pm : link
and yes one miraculously bounced off of a heel, but heres the thing about that particular pick...

1. coverage was tight
2. the throw was slightly behind the WR...hence the deflection in the first place
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