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John Madden interesting take on Eli

MassGman : 9/18/2013 3:47 pm
Basically said he doesn't mind Eli's interceptions. That's the type of offense the Giants have built. There a big play team and they wouldn't be effective if they didn't take chances
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This past week though  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/18/2013 4:32 pm : link
was a historically anomalous NFL week where 5 teams lost games despite winning the TO battle. That almost never happens. Week 1 teams who won the TO battle went 11-1 (only the Pats vs Buf lost the TO battle and won and needed a late FG). That's more in line with NFL averages
all he has to do is throw it away  
mattlawson : 9/18/2013 4:36 pm : link
or check it down and pick up 3 yards. i dont understand why that is so god damned difficult.

but im not him, and easier said than done im sure.

id be happy with 3 intentional checkdowns a game more than what he does now as a show of progress. one to the FB, RB, and TE each.
Even predating Coughlin  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/18/2013 4:41 pm : link
Since 1996 the Giants have lost a grand total of one game when going +2 or better in TO's. That was a 15-14 loss in 2001 vs the Rams, a game we totally should have won but got jobbed by about 8 officials calls. I am not a bash the officials guy but that was one of the handful of games in my life where their performance really bugged me
I think Eli is doing what he did in 2009  
Jay on the Island : 9/18/2013 4:43 pm : link
He is trying too hard to make plays in order to carry the team and make up for some mistakes/weaknesses.
If you're in FG range  
jcn56 : 9/18/2013 4:45 pm : link
it's not a hail mary. If the coverage was what Eli thought he saw, it was thrown perfectly and it would have gone for an easy TD. That's what we're hoping for, TDs over FGs.

Unfortunately, Eli misread the coverage. He fucked up, without a doubt, but it wasn't a 'zero reward' throw by any stretch of the imagination. Wasn't necessarily high risk either, it was just poor execution.
Interceptions are such an over-rated stat....  
kinard : 9/18/2013 4:47 pm : link
.... Wow, so Eli Manning has thrown more interceptions than anyone since 2004. Big deal. He's also won as many Super Bowls as any other QB during that time and has played in more games than anyone else.

Of his 7 this year, the only three that I wanted back from him were the Ware interception, the Da'Rell Scott play at the end of the Dallas game and the one at the end of the first half on Sunday.

It's kind of like bitching that Reggie Jackson struck out to many times. I don't remember anyone complaining when he was hitting home runs.
Are we talking about the INT before the half?  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/18/2013 4:48 pm : link
Eli told Francesa he was just throwing it away and didn't get it out far enough. Denver got pressure and Nicks had a post route and he wanted to throw behind him in a vacated area to get rid of it

That was really the only INT Sunday that bugged me. From a macro standpoint we do need to cut down on the TOs but just speaking on Sunday... One was a fluke bounce. The other was a 4th and 10 heave, and the last one couldn't have been more irrelevant to the outcome
We don't know if this is true  
Kyle : 9/18/2013 4:48 pm : link
What has been clear though is that the offense has not been adversely impacted...they're near the top of the league in scoring every year.

It's certainly possible the turnovers are what's constraining a top 3 scoring offense to top 10 status.
MarshallOnMontana : 9/18/2013 4:50 pm : link
Not to mention making life tougher on an already mediocre defense
The system  
fred44 : 9/18/2013 4:50 pm : link
needs to be revised. Gilbride is too stubborn to change. He's over 60...
GiantsFan84 : 9/18/2013 4:51 pm : link
there are going to be miscues like the fluke INT with randle and tipped balls. those are the ones you live with. ones where you if nicks is single covered you throw it up for grabs to give him a chance to win the battle. even some miscommunications between the QB and WR will happen due to the system. those are the ones you live with.

but screen passes? throwing into triple coverage in the end zone? come on. those are sanchez-esque
mattlawson -  
Exit 172 : 9/18/2013 4:53 pm : link
I've seen Eli try to check down, and it bounces off the back's hands to the turf...or to a worse place.
bahaha, Exit, this was excellent  
GMenLTS : 9/18/2013 5:00 pm : link
Maybe if Eli didn't have to work a quadratic formula in his head before every passing play, we might see some crisper passing and more time of possession.
Speaking of Gilbride  
MassGman : 9/18/2013 5:00 pm : link
Do you think the Giants have become to predictable
What is so hard about the quadratic formula  
giantsfour : 9/18/2013 5:07 pm : link
If Gilbride is over 60,  
chops : 9/18/2013 5:10 pm : link
he must know a lot about offense.
Excluding expansion teams  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/18/2013 5:11 pm : link
and excluding the Browns who left for a few years and came back, the Arizona Cardinals have the fewest wins in the NFL since 1990 with only 139.

Yet even that franchise has won 80% of the time in that span when they go +2 or better in TO diff (59-15 including playoffs). And that is the worst franchise in the NFL over the last 23+ years in terms of wins

When you win the TO battle even by 1 you win a good majority of the time. Starting at +2 your odds are ridiculous. +3 completely unfathomable. +4 almost unheard of (only two teams in the entire league have lost a game going +4 or better in the last 5 years). Arizona did it last year and Cleveland did it in 2010
Tangentially related  
BrettNYG10 : 9/18/2013 5:19 pm : link
Eli deserves criticism for the INTs, of course, but how does Drew Brees escape criticism for his?
I generally don't mind eli's interceptions  
Ten Ton Hammer : 9/18/2013 5:20 pm : link
he's had 14 and 16 in the last two years. That's fine.

But you can tell the difference between hard luck plays and terrible decisions, and that denver game featured some terrible decisions.

Throwing to 1 man in a sea of 3-4 broncos never has a good context, ever.
And besides that, with the receivers on this roster, if one target  
Ten Ton Hammer : 9/18/2013 5:21 pm : link
has three defenders, someone else is almost certainly open or only single covered.
Of course we don't mind INTs from Eli...  
M.S. : 9/18/2013 5:22 pm : link
...hell, what does he have? Only 7 after 2 games. That's nothing. In fact, I think all of the coaches and certainly all BBIers actually enjoyed that INT right at the end of first half at Denver. We all got a big kick out of that!
He said on Francesca's  
MassGman : 9/18/2013 5:24 pm : link
Show that he had nothing to lose late in the 4th quarter so he just heaved it and hoped another words "the Hail Mary"
Brees attempts are through the roof though  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/18/2013 5:27 pm : link
on a percentage basis, Brees throws picks on 2.7% of his passes, which is identical to Peytons career. The league average INT % over the last 10 seasons is about 3.03 (thats just an estimation by averaging the last 10 seasons individually, although not an equal number of attempts were thrown in each season which renders that estimate inexact but probably very close)

Eli is up at 3.3%. The only active starters who are worse are Jay Cutler and Freeman
Thanks, MoM.  
BrettNYG10 : 9/18/2013 5:32 pm : link
Appreciate it. I didn't know that.
he does not love it  
alligatorpie : 9/18/2013 5:37 pm : link
when his people are not doing things according to the system.

and, besides cruz and nicks, nobody far
I'm with Kinard on this one...  
rptl530 : 9/18/2013 5:42 pm : link
only 3 of the 7 have bothered me. The last one the other day was a clear attempt to try and make something happen when the game is out of hand, kind of like 3 of the ones he had at GB in 2010.

It's the idiotic one to Ware and at the end of the first half the other day that have to stop. Those are the ones that put your team in a bad position and lead to the other ones later in the game.
Danny Kanell : 9/18/2013 6:12 pm : link
Excellent job on this thread with strong facts backing up your posts. Interesting stuff.
If you look at the still pictures of the Ware Pick  
JOrthman : 9/18/2013 6:16 pm : link
Its not as bad as it looked in real time. You have to give credit to Ware.
A lot of his ints  
RB^2 : 9/18/2013 6:17 pm : link
have been weird. There was the one to Ware and the one that bounced off of Scott's hand. The last two against Denver were heaves into the end zone where the team really had no other choice. I suppose he could have checked it down for some inconsequential stat padding.

I would be concerned if Eli was making shit for brains throws a la Mark Sanchez but I can't say I've seen that.
Thanks Danny  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/18/2013 6:23 pm : link
I should post some links for backup... Here are the game logs for the Giants since 1996 when going +2 or better in turnovers (66-1-1 record, 38-0 under TC)

Link - ( New Window )
totally great - all these ints  
mdc1 : 9/18/2013 6:29 pm : link
and 0-2. Sure.
One thing that stands out to me about Eli is that he doesn't  
yatqb : 9/18/2013 6:34 pm : link
give a crap about his stats. He'll throw the ball up deep in some circumstances (e.g., at the end of a half or a game) where we need a score and he's gonna give a receiver a shot at a play. He knows that the odds are against a completion, and that an INT may happen, but he does so to try to win and damn the stats.

He makes his share of bonehead throws, but he also sacrifices his stats for the possibility of a win. Very unlike some QBs who dump the ball off for short gains time and again when down by a ton of points near the end of a game, or Jerry Lucas, who would fight with a teammate for a rebound as time was running out to pad his stats.
Cutler is a gun slinger like Eli  
mattlawson : 9/18/2013 6:40 pm : link
Since 2009 Eli has become more Brett Favre like in his decision making. All about the deep ball. In 2010 it was obviously too forced.

2011 was perfect, just the right amount of short passes to stretch out the d.

2012, not enough short game.

2013 it looks even worse
Right now their short passing game is pretty much Myers and Cruz,  
81_Great_Dane : 9/18/2013 6:57 pm : link
and every time Eli throws short to Cruz it's a win for the D. Myers, as others here have noted, seems to be the guy you throw to when you want to turn 3rd and long into 4th and short.

It was interesting to see the Broncos and Peyton Manning dink and dunk the Giants to death when they couldn't get the run game going. Essentially, that was the run game. The Giants have gone to quick slants when that's what the defense gave them, but they don't seem to like it and try to get away from it quickly.

They need the option of dump-off passes to the RB and FB. But oy, the running backs...
Go Terps : 9/18/2013 7:32 pm : link
Perhaps, but it's also possible that a concerted effort to cut down on turnovers may reduce the effectiveness of the offense. Tough to quantify. If that's true (I'm not saying it is) that may be a damning statement about the system. I'm not ready to say that though because I don't have data on it one way or the other.
Eli would cut down on his picks  
blakjedi : 9/18/2013 7:47 pm : link
if he would just look before he throws... even on replays he closes his eyes... He seems to always throw to spot and it gets us in big trouble. The pick six int for a touchdown against seattle a few years back, the pick six he gve to Kerrigan against the redskins in 2011, demarcus ware this year...all because he didn't look before he threw...literally half the picks come from these bullshit timing routes with adjustment by the qb.
with the Giants D (though has actually played ok in weeks 1 and 2)  
Essex : 9/18/2013 7:50 pm : link
we cannot afford to play a big play offense. We need to be efficient and score as often as possible.
Eli's Int stats last four years  
Kev in Cali : 9/18/2013 8:53 pm : link
2010 - 1 every 21.7 tosses 4K yds
2011 - 1 / 36.8 5K yds
2012 - 1 / 35.7 4K yds
2013 - 1 / 13 800 yds or projected 6.4K yds and this is with absolutely no run game.

So I get what Madden is saying, if you're throwing it a ton because that is all you have to your offense at this point, then yes, one would have to excuse and accept the high rate of Int's thus far this year as part of the "system".

Kev in Cali : 9/18/2013 8:55 pm : link
and I understand 6400 yds is a crackhead number, so something will change. I yes, I hope the Int's are what will change.
But guys  
Dhoe20 : 9/18/2013 9:43 pm : link
He's on pace for another 48 interception year!
56 i mean  
Dhoe20 : 9/18/2013 9:44 pm : link
RB^2... Eli's INT Bounced off Scott's Hands?  
M.S. : 9/18/2013 9:48 pm : link
I don't think you have that right.

From 4 yards away, Eli threw a lazer that Scott never saw until the last nanosecond. And when he DID see it, the ball didn't bounce at all. Scott made a split second stab with an out-stretched arm and that ball went ricocheting right into a waiting defender for a Pick 6.

That INT is on Eli. There is no other interpretation, and I don't care where Scott was supposed to be standing or when his head was supposed to be turned around. Eli threw just an awful, ugly pass there.
japanhead : 9/18/2013 10:45 pm : link
is right, eli has no touch on those dump off and screen type passes. i remember in the tampa bay playoff game in 2007 he lazererd one in to jacobs from about 2 yards away in the red zone. he held onto it and scored but he really stuck it on him. he's been doing this shit for years. difference is now is the jitters seem worse because his oline has fallen off so sharply.

i can easily foresee they'll just keep forcing the same 2 run plays and not work on any kind of short passing game at all. i hope i'm wrong because its getting hard to watch.
John Madden  
Blueballz : 9/18/2013 11:37 pm : link
is one of the Grandmasters of NFL football. He's not exactly saying something stupid.
He is right  
Joey in VA : 9/19/2013 12:19 am : link
We live by the sword and die by it. I'll take two rings and a lot of maddening games over a stellar regular season that ends with nothing annually
Dave in Hoboken : 9/19/2013 12:22 am : link
Eli never throws another pass to Scott again. Scott has to be aware out there, period.

Reminds me of what Parcells told Simms once  
Torn Tendon : 9/19/2013 12:26 am : link
that if he didn't throw at least two interceptions in the game then he was playing it too safe.
torn tendon  
AnnapolisMike : 9/19/2013 9:16 am : link
I remember hearing that comment. Unfortunately, Parcells teams usually had a good defense.
Madden sees what a bunch of us see and have been seeing  
Big Blue '56 : 9/19/2013 10:07 am : link
since 2007..

Moving on...
I mind a little  
gmen4ever : 9/19/2013 11:31 am : link
A few less than 7 would be nice
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