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What are Eli's chances of hoisting another Lombardi?

I Love Clams Casino : 9/23/2013 2:10 pm
Much diminished now I would say.

It may be time to rebuild, and if that's the case, he may not.

18.2756%  
Britt in VA : 9/23/2013 2:10 pm : link
.
Same as everyone else  
Spark Em Up 22 : 9/23/2013 2:11 pm : link
3.125%
Less than Andrew Lucks  
pjcas18 : 9/23/2013 2:12 pm : link
chances of hoisting one.

I released that information in the should we trade Eli for Andrew Luck thread.
ahhh...you just took the odds  
I Love Clams Casino : 9/23/2013 2:12 pm : link
of you ever seeing your toes again....didnja? HA!
About 25-35%  
BrettNYG10 : 9/23/2013 2:13 pm : link
.
consider....  
BillKo : 9/23/2013 2:14 pm : link
two years of rebuilding......he'll still be in Tom Brady's age bracket. So it's a possibility.

But winnning a SB is difficult!!! And he already has two. I'd say he was well worth the draft pick.
better than most.  
SethFromAstoria : 9/23/2013 2:15 pm : link
.
better than  
hd9009 : 9/23/2013 2:16 pm : link
Tony Romo or Geno Smith
He'll hoist a Lombardi this year.  
Mark C : 9/23/2013 2:17 pm : link
His brother will let him play with his new one.
GOOD...but  
silverfox : 9/23/2013 2:18 pm : link
...it won't be as a Giant.
...  
SanFranGiantsFan : 9/23/2013 2:19 pm : link
Probably not great, just based on there being 32 teams & only one can win. Also, he's on the back nine of his career.

But all I really want is for him to make one more run. And I think he will. Probably (more like definitely) not this year, but somewhere down the road.
Use the men in black thingy  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 2:22 pm : link
to erase all memory of the 2007 and 2011 postseasons. All you know of the Giants and Eli is their play through the regular season during these 9+ years. What are the chances that team and that QB won 2 superbowls in this time? Negative 500%? Yet we did. It's impossible to predict things like this. For all we know Eli's best seasons could still somehow be ahead of him and not add any jewelery
Or to just say it more directly  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 2:24 pm : link
its unbelievable we have the two we do. I saw it and I still can't believe it. 07 makes more sense in hindsight than 11, but both were unfathomable
Slim  
Sammo284 : 9/23/2013 2:24 pm : link
He is 32 which is hard to believe, but if we are looking at a retool of the roster, it's going to be tough to get one here in the next two or three years at which point he'll be 35 which is a tough age typically where QBs tend to start with the struggle with age/adjustments or fall off the cliff so to speak.

I think Eli should have a good 3-4 seasons left here, but anything beyond that point really is a wait and see. I can't believe some posters who were putting Eli down for another solid 8 years until he was 40.
None, he should retire  
HomerJones45 : 9/23/2013 2:26 pm : link
the minute Coughlin commits seppuku to atone to the fan base.
very slim if he doesn't take a pay cut  
Mason : 9/23/2013 2:26 pm : link
in the salary cap era with a 53 man roster, it is hard to get and maintain talent if just a few guys account for so much of the cap. In the NBA you can get away with it because of small rosters but very hard in the NFL under the salary cap.
We don't need total rebuild  
islander1 : 9/23/2013 2:27 pm : link
we just need to rebuild the OL. If we had anythign resembling a competent offensive line, this club would be fine.

However, this club is a shining example of how a horrible offensive line can literally destroy an entire team. I've never seen an offensively line so bad at BOTH.

Bears OL from a couple years ago was equally horrible at protecting Cutler, but somehow they did enough to get ground yards.
Approximately  
Josh in the City : 9/23/2013 2:28 pm : link
3.14159265359%
Good  
old man : 9/23/2013 2:33 pm : link
if he comes through this season ALIVE!
Josh  
I Love Clams Casino : 9/23/2013 2:43 pm : link
that's PI...not Eli's chances...BE SERIOUS...will ya? ;)
Eli  
SethFromAstoria : 9/23/2013 2:45 pm : link
Manning will be the QB on this team until he decides not to be.

And that's a great thing.
May be without TC,  
Simms11 : 9/23/2013 3:00 pm : link
but teams can change quickly from year to year in the NFL.
Probably pretty good, if Peyton lets him  
jeff57 : 9/23/2013 3:16 pm : link
But who knows.
"Eli Manning will be the QB on this team until he decides not to be."  
Riggies : 9/23/2013 3:54 pm : link
You may want this to be true, but it's not going to be.

2014 is a lock (barring them going like 0-16 and drafting Bridgewater -- which isn't going to happen), but 2015 isn't. He and the team can easily part ways, contractually/cap-wise, then.

And, frankly, if the Giants don't do some significant work, in a relatively short amount of time, he'll be better off for it. What could possibly unfold here would basically turn him into a full blown Plunkett 2.0, historically (fair or not).
Riggies  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 4:26 pm : link
The Plunkett analogy is a bit harsh, I really don't think there is a great comparison. The Giants in the Manning era have to be the most confusing, inexplicable era I've ever seen from any team in any sport in any era, they have charted new territory with their identity. The highs this team and this QB have hit compared to the bulk of the resume' is pretty astounding. Lightning struck twice. It amazes me some see this era Giants as underachieving in any way, shape or form when you can argue they may be the biggest overachievers ever

And while the bulk of Manning's career screams out "Good not great, never in the HOF discussion if not for the two runs", those who wish to diminish him by propping up the stacked nature of the Giants roster around him couldn't be further off. Because these weren't loaded teams who spent 2 Sundays in February under confetti. They were decent teams, who much like their QB, found a way to bottle greatness for a month when it mattered most. Twice.

was just talking about the 07 and 2011 thing earlier  
djm : 9/23/2013 4:32 pm : link
the 2011 run was by far more insane and unbelievable than the 07 run. What made the 07 run seem more ridiculous at the time was that this team hadn't done it yet. We weren't used to big postseason wins or any magic. The minute this team beat the Jets in 2011 we all started to feel like something fishy was going on...been there done that.

IN retrospect, 2011's run blows 2007's run completely out of the water. That 07 team was sandwiched in between an 11 win team and a 12 win team--and that 07 team was nasty up front, younge...fresh. The 2011 team was sandwiched in between Sheridan and today.

djm  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 4:35 pm : link
I agree, i said that last night. 07 makes more sense with the benefit of a step back and wider view. From week 3 07 at Washington through week 13 2008 at Washington the team went 25-5 including playoffs, with all sorts of wins against quality competition in that time. 2011 is a lot harder to explain when sandwiched by non playoff years in the two seasons surrounding each (assuming no playoffs this year) and the team at 7-7 in the SB year before they got hot

The height of the TC era was in that 07-08 span, and the franchise has never been the same since the Plax incident. Not because of losing Plax per say, just using that as the BC/AD time marker
just look at the rosters of those two teams  
Greg from LI : 9/23/2013 4:53 pm : link
2007 was clearly a much better team than 2011. Had Strahan still playing at a high level. Osi was a Pro Bowler in his prime. Tuck had 10 sacks as the third man in the rotation. Fred Robbins, who is easily the best Giants DT of the past ten years. Cagey old Sam Madison playing opposite the emerging (at least, emerging in the second half) Webster. Pierce was declining from his Pro Bowl years, but was still solid in the middle and as smart a defender as they've had.

The OL might have been the best in football, with an All-Pro in Snee, a Pro Bowler in O'Hara and the rock-solid KMac and Seubert. Very deep at RB. Not the same kind of receiving talent they currently have, but Plax was a mismatch who could make some amazing plays and Toomer and Smith were reliable possession guys.

Eli was a better player in 2011 than 2007 and the WRs were better. Aside from that, 2007 was superior in every area.
But still the 07 team  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 4:54 pm : link
was a big surprise, even with the benefit of a view of the first 3/4 of 2008.

If Im a Colt fan since the turn of the century, if Im a Pat fan since 2005, it burns my ass that the Giants have more SB to show for this time period than I do. If Im an Eagle fan under Reid/Jim Johnson, same deal.
Pretty much the same chance  
nomad1986 : 9/23/2013 4:56 pm : link
he had to hoist the first two. It's not easy and doesn't happen often. But if the Giants get into the playoffs and Eli is the QB I'll take my chances.
Pretty low  
Jerry in DC : 9/23/2013 4:58 pm : link
Winning a Super Bowl is hard. The Giants aren't a particularly good team and he's only got a few years left.

Depending on how things go with the Giants, there's always the possibility that he could pull a late career Favre kind of move where he goes to a loaded team with no QB like Minnesota was a few years ago.
The Pats being 18-0 really throws the balance off when examining the  
Greg from LI : 9/23/2013 4:58 pm : link
2007 season. The Giants still would have been an underdog in most years, but they wouldn't be considered this once-in-a-lifetime miracle had they beaten, say, the 2008 Steelers or the 2006 Colts. They would have been a nice story, that's all.
if I were given  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/23/2013 5:02 pm : link
even odds, I would bet against it with any feasible sum
Less than  
kmed : 9/23/2013 5:04 pm : link
Lucks.
Greg  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 5:04 pm : link
Aside from the Pats, The Giants were underdogs in the Tampa game, let alone the Dallas and GB games where they were massive dogs (7+ pts). The toughest game of that whole run to me was the Dallas one. They beat us down twice, including at our place after we had turned it around and were riding a 6 game win streak. They had every chance to win that playoff game too, in fact they had chances to blow it open.
I don't think it's a fair one either, hence the "fair or not," but if  
Riggies : 9/23/2013 5:12 pm : link
the Giants circle the drain and pretty much suck (with the impact it could potentially take on his stats, which are already not impressive for his era, outside of some decent compiling in both good and bad ways due to his durability so far) for much of the final third of his career, he's going to be tagged as such and his already iffy HOF chances are going to go out the window.

His non-Giants-fan-viewed legacy is going to be unfortunately established as the turnover-prone Manning brother that played on a team that got lucky twice and didn't even have the "But he's a winner!" thing going for him, given how his team missed the playoffs more often than they made them during his tenure.
Joe, that first half at Dallas in 2007(2008) playoffs  
Big Blue '56 : 9/23/2013 5:18 pm : link
they were pounding the shit out of us until Eli's end of half drive. That seemed to level things out going into the second half. That and a spent Barber in the second half as well..


As to another Lombardi?

Anytime you have an Eli, Cruz, Nicks, Randle and to be determined Wilson along with Prince, JPP(after he hopefully regains his game shape), and a few others, you have a chance to win it all. Throw in a solid HC and GM and the recipe is there. BUT, as with all SB wins, you need good fortune as well..
I still think he is a HOF lock  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 5:23 pm : link
The two SB MVP plus the compiling stats, which will be much more impressive than they are for a guy like Plunkett. Forget how passing numbers have exploded in recent times... When Plunkett retired after 1986, he wasn't even in the all time top 20 (through 1986) in passing TDs, and was 18th in yards (by the time he was HOF eligible he was not top 30 in either).

Eli is 84 TD passes and about 14 K yards away from being top 7 all time in both categories. Thats less than 4 years, he'll get there at minimum. Of course active guys will pass him later, but he'll have a comfortable spot in the top 10 fringe through a couple HOF votes.
Also i have to add  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 5:26 pm : link
I dont write off these next 3-4 years like the Giants are in for a total rebuild and overhaul. It wouldnt stun me at all to see 5-11 this year followed by 11-5 next with a big offseason. Thats just the nature of the NFL. I don't share the pessimism for the next half decade
And you would be spot on Joe, imv  
Big Blue '56 : 9/23/2013 5:29 pm : link
.
When  
DanMetroMan : 9/23/2013 5:30 pm : link
you have a good/great QB you can turn things around VERY quickly. I don't think this is the Giants year (very flawed team). But I don't think 2013 has any effect on 2014 and beyond if they are smart.
At the risk of getting hammered by contrary opinions  
Ten Ton Hammer : 9/23/2013 5:31 pm : link
give Eli an offensive line and free him from the chains of this offense, and I think he's got one more ring in him.
I believe he will win another one  
steve in ky : 9/23/2013 5:32 pm : link
.
I'm not anticipating a big rebuilding process either.  
bceagle05 : 9/23/2013 5:34 pm : link
Most teams would kill for our flaws, if they could have Eli, Cruz, Randle, JPP, Prince and a few others going forward (hopefully Nicks, too). And if Coughlin does step down at the end of the season (for conversation's sake), every top coaching candidate alive would be lining up to take this job. That tells you something, too.
He'll also have a ridiculous number of turnovers and a passer rating  
Riggies : 9/23/2013 5:34 pm : link
probably of about 80, maybe lower (if things continue on a downturn, for a few years, and don't bounce back).

You throw in playing on a team that will have possibly whiffed on making the playoffs more often than it made them, with his team's overall W/L creeping closer to .500 or so during his career, and I just don't see the 2 SBs (there's already a strong perception, even amongst those biased toward the Giants, that he didn't deserve either of those two SB MVPs) being enough with how the perception and evaluation of football amongst the voting population continues to shift through the years.

Note: Before anyone calls me a hater, this isn't about MY opinion of Eli, but others' and what is most likely to shake out if he spends most of his final act of his career on a team that could potentially be pretty crappy/rebuilding.
I remember a thread in the post SB 46 euphoria  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 5:34 pm : link
where the question was posed... Would you sign for one more ring in the TC/Eli era if that is all you are getting, no possibility of a 4th or more... I would have signed for a 3rd right then. A lot of people had dynastic visions though. It's just very tough to get one
Realistically  
RB^2 : 9/23/2013 5:36 pm : link
Probably 10% tops.
The all time interception list  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 5:43 pm : link
reads like a whos who of hall of famers in that top 20 with a few exceptions (I think we can agree hes not Vinny Testaverde). Time will tell, but I think when you have the 2 Super Bowls wins and counting stats like he will (even if it bleeds into bad areas like the picks, that comes with it) will be enough. Im surprised im on this side of the argument and you are on the other. You are generally more pro Eli than me (not that im anti Eli), but id be stunned if he doesn't get in
Tough to predict..  
Sean in PA : 9/23/2013 6:53 pm : link
but given Eli's ability in the post season and in big games, they always have a chance if they can get to the dance...and I'm pretty confident they will again in Eli's career here.

I don't fully subscribe to the idea that the 2011 Giants were a complete fluke while looking at the surrounding seasons. The 2010 Giants were a flukey 7 minutes away from getting a first round bye in the 2010-11 playoffs, that was a 10-6 team.

The 2012 Giants were inconsistent, but still had some dominating performances.
Although it looks bleak, it just ain't over yet!!!!  
dguy901 : 9/23/2013 7:02 pm : link
The OL is the culprit,Eli has been sacked 11 times and hit 22 times! They have only rushed the ball 49 times and have only averaged 2.7 ypa thru 3 games! The D is on the field the majority of the time and to not consider that is foolhardy! The OL has been in total disarray due to injuries and the stupid back loaded contracts for players like Baas. As bad as they have played, the seasson can be salvaged, we play Dallas
again and can gain ground if the team pulls together. Hell, it can't get worse! JMHO.
Like I said, it's not about my opinion.  
Riggies : 9/23/2013 7:08 pm : link
My opinion about Eli is what is: a very good QB that has accomplished some great things, despite having some flaws (inconsistency, too much "gunslinging") and spending his career, thus far, in a system that I... have never been a huge fan of and frankly loathe right now.

... but my opinion doesn't mean anything regarding his chances for the HOF or what his widespread legacy will end up being, especially if things fall out for this team over the next couple years and he has to go down with the ship before it can be rebuilt. It's not going to change how "younger" voters that are and will be coming into the population rely (right or wrong) on things like passer rating or TD:INT more now than any other bunch. It's not going to give him that third ring so he can at least force his way in, Terry Bradshaw/Troy Aikman style, or change the already pretty widespread [unfair] belief that he didn't deserve either of his 2 SB MVPs and that Tuck, Strahan, etc. should have won them.
I know you're talking about the HOF voters view not yours  
MarshallOnMontana : 9/23/2013 7:20 pm : link
Im doing the same thing, and by the precedent that has been established I think he is a lock. If it were up to me, Id be a lot harder marker for the HOF than the actual voters are and Eli would have a lot trouble, considering the guy was a top 5 QB in exactly one season.

And the bulk of the guys who vote for this really couldn't care less about his passer rating or his football outsiders DVOA ranking. There may one day be a change in the mindset of the voting block, but we are a ways away and a bunch of deaths from that. He has two shiny rings and is gonna throw for a boatload of yards and touchdowns, that's more than enough with the guys voting now. Either one without the other wouldn't do it. In conjunction I think it does
Riggies  
SethFromAstoria : 9/23/2013 8:37 pm : link
we'll see. My bet is that he is here until he retires.
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