Probably not great, just based on there being 32 teams & only one can win. Also, he's on the back nine of his career.
But all I really want is for him to make one more run. And I think he will. Probably (more like definitely) not this year, but somewhere down the road.
to erase all memory of the 2007 and 2011 postseasons. All you know of the Giants and Eli is their play through the regular season during these 9+ years. What are the chances that team and that QB won 2 superbowls in this time? Negative 500%? Yet we did. It's impossible to predict things like this. For all we know Eli's best seasons could still somehow be ahead of him and not add any jewelery
He is 32 which is hard to believe, but if we are looking at a retool of the roster, it's going to be tough to get one here in the next two or three years at which point he'll be 35 which is a tough age typically where QBs tend to start with the struggle with age/adjustments or fall off the cliff so to speak.
I think Eli should have a good 3-4 seasons left here, but anything beyond that point really is a wait and see. I can't believe some posters who were putting Eli down for another solid 8 years until he was 40.
in the salary cap era with a 53 man roster, it is hard to get and maintain talent if just a few guys account for so much of the cap. In the NBA you can get away with it because of small rosters but very hard in the NFL under the salary cap.
we just need to rebuild the OL. If we had anythign resembling a competent offensive line, this club would be fine.
However, this club is a shining example of how a horrible offensive line can literally destroy an entire team. I've never seen an offensively line so bad at BOTH.
Bears OL from a couple years ago was equally horrible at protecting Cutler, but somehow they did enough to get ground yards.
You may want this to be true, but it's not going to be.
2014 is a lock (barring them going like 0-16 and drafting Bridgewater -- which isn't going to happen), but 2015 isn't. He and the team can easily part ways, contractually/cap-wise, then.
And, frankly, if the Giants don't do some significant work, in a relatively short amount of time, he'll be better off for it. What could possibly unfold here would basically turn him into a full blown Plunkett 2.0, historically (fair or not).
The Plunkett analogy is a bit harsh, I really don't think there is a great comparison. The Giants in the Manning era have to be the most confusing, inexplicable era I've ever seen from any team in any sport in any era, they have charted new territory with their identity. The highs this team and this QB have hit compared to the bulk of the resume' is pretty astounding. Lightning struck twice. It amazes me some see this era Giants as underachieving in any way, shape or form when you can argue they may be the biggest overachievers ever
And while the bulk of Manning's career screams out "Good not great, never in the HOF discussion if not for the two runs", those who wish to diminish him by propping up the stacked nature of the Giants roster around him couldn't be further off. Because these weren't loaded teams who spent 2 Sundays in February under confetti. They were decent teams, who much like their QB, found a way to bottle greatness for a month when it mattered most. Twice.
was just talking about the 07 and 2011 thing earlier
the 2011 run was by far more insane and unbelievable than the 07 run. What made the 07 run seem more ridiculous at the time was that this team hadn't done it yet. We weren't used to big postseason wins or any magic. The minute this team beat the Jets in 2011 we all started to feel like something fishy was going on...been there done that.
IN retrospect, 2011's run blows 2007's run completely out of the water. That 07 team was sandwiched in between an 11 win team and a 12 win team--and that 07 team was nasty up front, younge...fresh. The 2011 team was sandwiched in between Sheridan and today.
I agree, i said that last night. 07 makes more sense with the benefit of a step back and wider view. From week 3 07 at Washington through week 13 2008 at Washington the team went 25-5 including playoffs, with all sorts of wins against quality competition in that time. 2011 is a lot harder to explain when sandwiched by non playoff years in the two seasons surrounding each (assuming no playoffs this year) and the team at 7-7 in the SB year before they got hot
The height of the TC era was in that 07-08 span, and the franchise has never been the same since the Plax incident. Not because of losing Plax per say, just using that as the BC/AD time marker
2007 was clearly a much better team than 2011. Had Strahan still playing at a high level. Osi was a Pro Bowler in his prime. Tuck had 10 sacks as the third man in the rotation. Fred Robbins, who is easily the best Giants DT of the past ten years. Cagey old Sam Madison playing opposite the emerging (at least, emerging in the second half) Webster. Pierce was declining from his Pro Bowl years, but was still solid in the middle and as smart a defender as they've had.
The OL might have been the best in football, with an All-Pro in Snee, a Pro Bowler in O'Hara and the rock-solid KMac and Seubert. Very deep at RB. Not the same kind of receiving talent they currently have, but Plax was a mismatch who could make some amazing plays and Toomer and Smith were reliable possession guys.
Eli was a better player in 2011 than 2007 and the WRs were better. Aside from that, 2007 was superior in every area.
was a big surprise, even with the benefit of a view of the first 3/4 of 2008.
If Im a Colt fan since the turn of the century, if Im a Pat fan since 2005, it burns my ass that the Giants have more SB to show for this time period than I do. If Im an Eagle fan under Reid/Jim Johnson, same deal.
Winning a Super Bowl is hard. The Giants aren't a particularly good team and he's only got a few years left.
Depending on how things go with the Giants, there's always the possibility that he could pull a late career Favre kind of move where he goes to a loaded team with no QB like Minnesota was a few years ago.
The Pats being 18-0 really throws the balance off when examining the
2007 season. The Giants still would have been an underdog in most years, but they wouldn't be considered this once-in-a-lifetime miracle had they beaten, say, the 2008 Steelers or the 2006 Colts. They would have been a nice story, that's all.
Aside from the Pats, The Giants were underdogs in the Tampa game, let alone the Dallas and GB games where they were massive dogs (7+ pts). The toughest game of that whole run to me was the Dallas one. They beat us down twice, including at our place after we had turned it around and were riding a 6 game win streak. They had every chance to win that playoff game too, in fact they had chances to blow it open.
I don't think it's a fair one either, hence the "fair or not," but if
the Giants circle the drain and pretty much suck (with the impact it could potentially take on his stats, which are already not impressive for his era, outside of some decent compiling in both good and bad ways due to his durability so far) for much of the final third of his career, he's going to be tagged as such and his already iffy HOF chances are going to go out the window.
His non-Giants-fan-viewed legacy is going to be unfortunately established as the turnover-prone Manning brother that played on a team that got lucky twice and didn't even have the "But he's a winner!" thing going for him, given how his team missed the playoffs more often than they made them during his tenure.
Joe, that first half at Dallas in 2007(2008) playoffs
they were pounding the shit out of us until Eli's end of half drive. That seemed to level things out going into the second half. That and a spent Barber in the second half as well..
As to another Lombardi?
Anytime you have an Eli, Cruz, Nicks, Randle and to be determined Wilson along with Prince, JPP(after he hopefully regains his game shape), and a few others, you have a chance to win it all. Throw in a solid HC and GM and the recipe is there. BUT, as with all SB wins, you need good fortune as well..
The two SB MVP plus the compiling stats, which will be much more impressive than they are for a guy like Plunkett. Forget how passing numbers have exploded in recent times... When Plunkett retired after 1986, he wasn't even in the all time top 20 (through 1986) in passing TDs, and was 18th in yards (by the time he was HOF eligible he was not top 30 in either).
Eli is 84 TD passes and about 14 K yards away from being top 7 all time in both categories. Thats less than 4 years, he'll get there at minimum. Of course active guys will pass him later, but he'll have a comfortable spot in the top 10 fringe through a couple HOF votes.
I dont write off these next 3-4 years like the Giants are in for a total rebuild and overhaul. It wouldnt stun me at all to see 5-11 this year followed by 11-5 next with a big offseason. Thats just the nature of the NFL. I don't share the pessimism for the next half decade
you have a good/great QB you can turn things around VERY quickly. I don't think this is the Giants year (very flawed team). But I don't think 2013 has any effect on 2014 and beyond if they are smart.
At the risk of getting hammered by contrary opinions
Most teams would kill for our flaws, if they could have Eli, Cruz, Randle, JPP, Prince and a few others going forward (hopefully Nicks, too). And if Coughlin does step down at the end of the season (for conversation's sake), every top coaching candidate alive would be lining up to take this job. That tells you something, too.
He'll also have a ridiculous number of turnovers and a passer rating
probably of about 80, maybe lower (if things continue on a downturn, for a few years, and don't bounce back).
You throw in playing on a team that will have possibly whiffed on making the playoffs more often than it made them, with his team's overall W/L creeping closer to .500 or so during his career, and I just don't see the 2 SBs (there's already a strong perception, even amongst those biased toward the Giants, that he didn't deserve either of those two SB MVPs) being enough with how the perception and evaluation of football amongst the voting population continues to shift through the years.
Note: Before anyone calls me a hater, this isn't about MY opinion of Eli, but others' and what is most likely to shake out if he spends most of his final act of his career on a team that could potentially be pretty crappy/rebuilding.
where the question was posed... Would you sign for one more ring in the TC/Eli era if that is all you are getting, no possibility of a 4th or more... I would have signed for a 3rd right then. A lot of people had dynastic visions though. It's just very tough to get one
reads like a whos who of hall of famers in that top 20 with a few exceptions (I think we can agree hes not Vinny Testaverde). Time will tell, but I think when you have the 2 Super Bowls wins and counting stats like he will (even if it bleeds into bad areas like the picks, that comes with it) will be enough. Im surprised im on this side of the argument and you are on the other. You are generally more pro Eli than me (not that im anti Eli), but id be stunned if he doesn't get in
but given Eli's ability in the post season and in big games, they always have a chance if they can get to the dance...and I'm pretty confident they will again in Eli's career here.
I don't fully subscribe to the idea that the 2011 Giants were a complete fluke while looking at the surrounding seasons. The 2010 Giants were a flukey 7 minutes away from getting a first round bye in the 2010-11 playoffs, that was a 10-6 team.
The 2012 Giants were inconsistent, but still had some dominating performances.
Although it looks bleak, it just ain't over yet!!!!
The OL is the culprit,Eli has been sacked 11 times and hit 22 times! They have only rushed the ball 49 times and have only averaged 2.7 ypa thru 3 games! The D is on the field the majority of the time and to not consider that is foolhardy! The OL has been in total disarray due to injuries and the stupid back loaded contracts for players like Baas. As bad as they have played, the seasson can be salvaged, we play Dallas
again and can gain ground if the team pulls together. Hell, it can't get worse! JMHO.
My opinion about Eli is what is: a very good QB that has accomplished some great things, despite having some flaws (inconsistency, too much "gunslinging") and spending his career, thus far, in a system that I... have never been a huge fan of and frankly loathe right now.
... but my opinion doesn't mean anything regarding his chances for the HOF or what his widespread legacy will end up being, especially if things fall out for this team over the next couple years and he has to go down with the ship before it can be rebuilt. It's not going to change how "younger" voters that are and will be coming into the population rely (right or wrong) on things like passer rating or TD:INT more now than any other bunch. It's not going to give him that third ring so he can at least force his way in, Terry Bradshaw/Troy Aikman style, or change the already pretty widespread [unfair] belief that he didn't deserve either of his 2 SB MVPs and that Tuck, Strahan, etc. should have won them.
I know you're talking about the HOF voters view not yours
Im doing the same thing, and by the precedent that has been established I think he is a lock. If it were up to me, Id be a lot harder marker for the HOF than the actual voters are and Eli would have a lot trouble, considering the guy was a top 5 QB in exactly one season.
And the bulk of the guys who vote for this really couldn't care less about his passer rating or his football outsiders DVOA ranking. There may one day be a change in the mindset of the voting block, but we are a ways away and a bunch of deaths from that. He has two shiny rings and is gonna throw for a boatload of yards and touchdowns, that's more than enough with the guys voting now. Either one without the other wouldn't do it. In conjunction I think it does
I released that information in the should we trade Eli for Andrew Luck thread.
But winnning a SB is difficult!!! And he already has two. I'd say he was well worth the draft pick.
But all I really want is for him to make one more run. And I think he will. Probably (more like definitely) not this year, but somewhere down the road.
I think Eli should have a good 3-4 seasons left here, but anything beyond that point really is a wait and see. I can't believe some posters who were putting Eli down for another solid 8 years until he was 40.
However, this club is a shining example of how a horrible offensive line can literally destroy an entire team. I've never seen an offensively line so bad at BOTH.
Bears OL from a couple years ago was equally horrible at protecting Cutler, but somehow they did enough to get ground yards.
And that's a great thing.
2014 is a lock (barring them going like 0-16 and drafting Bridgewater -- which isn't going to happen), but 2015 isn't. He and the team can easily part ways, contractually/cap-wise, then.
And, frankly, if the Giants don't do some significant work, in a relatively short amount of time, he'll be better off for it. What could possibly unfold here would basically turn him into a full blown Plunkett 2.0, historically (fair or not).
And while the bulk of Manning's career screams out "Good not great, never in the HOF discussion if not for the two runs", those who wish to diminish him by propping up the stacked nature of the Giants roster around him couldn't be further off. Because these weren't loaded teams who spent 2 Sundays in February under confetti. They were decent teams, who much like their QB, found a way to bottle greatness for a month when it mattered most. Twice.
IN retrospect, 2011's run blows 2007's run completely out of the water. That 07 team was sandwiched in between an 11 win team and a 12 win team--and that 07 team was nasty up front, younge...fresh. The 2011 team was sandwiched in between Sheridan and today.
The height of the TC era was in that 07-08 span, and the franchise has never been the same since the Plax incident. Not because of losing Plax per say, just using that as the BC/AD time marker
The OL might have been the best in football, with an All-Pro in Snee, a Pro Bowler in O'Hara and the rock-solid KMac and Seubert. Very deep at RB. Not the same kind of receiving talent they currently have, but Plax was a mismatch who could make some amazing plays and Toomer and Smith were reliable possession guys.
Eli was a better player in 2011 than 2007 and the WRs were better. Aside from that, 2007 was superior in every area.
If Im a Colt fan since the turn of the century, if Im a Pat fan since 2005, it burns my ass that the Giants have more SB to show for this time period than I do. If Im an Eagle fan under Reid/Jim Johnson, same deal.
Depending on how things go with the Giants, there's always the possibility that he could pull a late career Favre kind of move where he goes to a loaded team with no QB like Minnesota was a few years ago.
His non-Giants-fan-viewed legacy is going to be unfortunately established as the turnover-prone Manning brother that played on a team that got lucky twice and didn't even have the "But he's a winner!" thing going for him, given how his team missed the playoffs more often than they made them during his tenure.
As to another Lombardi?
Anytime you have an Eli, Cruz, Nicks, Randle and to be determined Wilson along with Prince, JPP(after he hopefully regains his game shape), and a few others, you have a chance to win it all. Throw in a solid HC and GM and the recipe is there. BUT, as with all SB wins, you need good fortune as well..
Eli is 84 TD passes and about 14 K yards away from being top 7 all time in both categories. Thats less than 4 years, he'll get there at minimum. Of course active guys will pass him later, but he'll have a comfortable spot in the top 10 fringe through a couple HOF votes.
You throw in playing on a team that will have possibly whiffed on making the playoffs more often than it made them, with his team's overall W/L creeping closer to .500 or so during his career, and I just don't see the 2 SBs (there's already a strong perception, even amongst those biased toward the Giants, that he didn't deserve either of those two SB MVPs) being enough with how the perception and evaluation of football amongst the voting population continues to shift through the years.
Note: Before anyone calls me a hater, this isn't about MY opinion of Eli, but others' and what is most likely to shake out if he spends most of his final act of his career on a team that could potentially be pretty crappy/rebuilding.
I don't fully subscribe to the idea that the 2011 Giants were a complete fluke while looking at the surrounding seasons. The 2010 Giants were a flukey 7 minutes away from getting a first round bye in the 2010-11 playoffs, that was a 10-6 team.
The 2012 Giants were inconsistent, but still had some dominating performances.
again and can gain ground if the team pulls together. Hell, it can't get worse! JMHO.
... but my opinion doesn't mean anything regarding his chances for the HOF or what his widespread legacy will end up being, especially if things fall out for this team over the next couple years and he has to go down with the ship before it can be rebuilt. It's not going to change how "younger" voters that are and will be coming into the population rely (right or wrong) on things like passer rating or TD:INT more now than any other bunch. It's not going to give him that third ring so he can at least force his way in, Terry Bradshaw/Troy Aikman style, or change the already pretty widespread [unfair] belief that he didn't deserve either of his 2 SB MVPs and that Tuck, Strahan, etc. should have won them.
And the bulk of the guys who vote for this really couldn't care less about his passer rating or his football outsiders DVOA ranking. There may one day be a change in the mindset of the voting block, but we are a ways away and a bunch of deaths from that. He has two shiny rings and is gonna throw for a boatload of yards and touchdowns, that's more than enough with the guys voting now. Either one without the other wouldn't do it. In conjunction I think it does