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NFC East race and tiebreakers

ray in arlington : 11/10/2013 11:49 pm


Home games in Green. Road games in Red.

Quick Summary

- The Giants are now 1 1/2 games behind DAL and PHIL
- Taking a tiebreak against Dallas will require a win over Dallas and a Dallas loss to either PHIL or WAS
- The SEA game is the game the Giants can most "afford to lose" from a tiebreak perspective.

Details:

(For now I'm just looking at DAL and PHI)

Giants vs DAL (2-way tie):
===============================

STEP 1: (Head-to-head)
Giants lose to DAL = DAL takes tiebreak
Giants beat DAL = Go to step 2

STEP 2: (Division)
DAL beats PHIL and WAS = DAL takes tiebreak
Giants beat WAS twice AND DAL loses to PHIL and WAS = NYG take tiebreak
Giants beat WAS twice AND DAL loses to PHIL or WAS = go to step 3
Giants beat WAS once AND DAL loses to PHIL and WAS = go to step 3

STEP 3: (Common Opponents)
Giants lose to SEA = NYG take tiebreak
Giants beat SEA = go to step 4

STEP 4: (Conference)
DAL does better against GB and CHI than NYG does against GB and DET = DAL takes tiebreak
Otherwise = Strength of Victory

Giants vs PHIL (2-way tie):
===========================

STEP 1: (Head-to-head)
Teams split. Go to step 2.

STEP 2: (Division)
NYG does better in the 2 WAS games than PHIL does against WAS and DAL = NYG takes tiebreak
NYG does worse in the 2 WAS games than PHIL does against WAS and DAL = PHI takes tiebreak
NYG does the same in these games = go to step 3

STEP 3: (Common Opps)
Giants lose to SEA OR PHI beats ARIZ = NYG take tiebreak
Giants beat SEA AND ARIZ beats PHIL = go to step 4

STEP 4: (Conference)
Decided by best record against NFC North. PHI currently 1-0. Giants 1-1.

Giants vs Phi and Dal (3 way tie)
====================================
STEP 1: Head to head among teams.
NYG beats DAL and PHIL beats DAL = Go to step 2
Otherwise = DAL takes tiebreak.

STEP 2: Division Record
This would be decided by best performance against WAS.
Dal and Phil have already beat WAS. Giants haven't played WAS.
If one of the teams does better that the other 2, that team wins the tiebreak
If a single team does worse, go to a 2 way tiebreak for the 2 teams that did better.
If all do the same against WAS go to STEP 3.

STEP 3: Common opponents
Giants lose to SEA = NYG takes tiebreak
Giants beat SEA and PHI beat ARI = reverts to 2-way tiebreak with DAL
Giants beat SEA and ARI beats PHI = go to STEP 4.

STEP 4:
Compare records against NFC North for all 3 teams, etc.
============================

Although DAL got crushed tonight, they still have that 3-0 division record to help them.

Always appreciated it when someone finds an error.
Good  
Arcanum : 11/10/2013 11:58 pm : link
Shit ray
I love this breakdown!  
RELICDOA : 11/11/2013 12:01 am : link
To be honest any team can win this division right now. Not one team has asserted themselves yet.
Strange how losing to seattle is a positive  
Neverend : 11/11/2013 12:12 am : link
here, that it would work against the giants favor. how about that? lol
just win out and we're in  
SHO'NUFF : 11/11/2013 12:13 am : link
easy peasy!
yeah  
ray in arlington : 11/11/2013 12:15 am : link
losing to seattle can insure that the Giants win a tiebreaker in some cases but makes it harder for the tie to actually be achieved.
SHO'NUFF  
ray in arlington : 11/11/2013 12:16 am : link
well, not mathematically because the Eagles could go 11-5.

But it's funny that one can actually look at the stuff without being ridiculous, when this team was 0-6.
I cant believe the Eagles are tied for first  
islander1 : 11/11/2013 12:31 am : link
holy shit
10-6 would be an epic comeback for Coughlin and the team  
SHO'NUFF : 11/11/2013 12:33 am : link
realistically, I'm gonna say 7-9
their QB  
ray in arlington : 11/11/2013 12:34 am : link
has 16 TD's and 0 INT's!
Ray  
rdt288 : 11/11/2013 12:41 am : link
Thanks for this. When you post I know there is life in giants land (still)
We started 0-6, yet there's a chance  
TheBigBlueOne : 11/11/2013 12:45 am : link
we can still win this division. Good God.

Glass half full: We're a competitive division!
Maybe the new strategy is  
silverfox : 11/11/2013 5:59 am : link
Starting 2-6 instead of 6-2 (which never seemed to end well )
Ray what year did you graduate from MIT ?  
gtt350 : 11/11/2013 6:05 am : link
.
I have a lot of hope  
mattnyg05 : 11/11/2013 6:21 am : link
because I feel like the entire division has ridiculous faults. Why can't we be the shitty team to win it??? You don't have to feel like the Giants are world beaters to feel like they can win this division, because it sucks so badly.
.  
Danny Kanell : 11/11/2013 6:43 am : link
Awesome thread.
Thanks so much for doing this..  
JCin332 : 11/11/2013 7:01 am : link
its really great..
You explained it to me like I was 5 years old!  
Tom from LI : 11/11/2013 7:06 am : link
THANK YOU!! Great stuff!
Thanks Ray  
Sec 103 : 11/11/2013 8:17 am : link
But seriously the way this team is playing on Specials and Offense does not strike me as a positive to go out and win against better teams... I hope that I am wrong though....
Love this post  
Lord Zedd : 11/11/2013 8:34 am : link
!
ok...i am confused  
Hades07 : 11/11/2013 8:46 am : link
How does losing to Seattle help the tie break?
I don't think 8-8 will win the division  
dpinzow : 11/11/2013 9:00 am : link
one of these teams is getting to 9-7. I just hope it's us (we'll have to go 6-1 against a pretty tough schedule to do so)
as explained above  
ray in arlington : 11/11/2013 9:00 am : link
a loss can insure the win of a common opponents tiebreak, but it decreases the probability of getting a good enough record to get into the tie situation in the first place.

The loss to seattle would make the Giants 0-2 against the non-common opponents. Dallas is 1-1. If the teams finish in a tie, Dallas would have won one more game against the non-common, so the Giants would have one one more game against the common and take the common opponents tiebreaker.
and for completeness  
ray in arlington : 11/11/2013 9:03 am : link
I should say in Giants vs Dal step 2, that if the Giants don't beat either Phil or Was, DAL takes the tiebreaker.
here's some notes on tiebreaking  
ray in arlington : 11/11/2013 9:06 am : link
NOTES ON TIEBREAKING:

1. The results of a tie with another team can be altered if a 3rd team is involved in a tie. (For example, Team A can beat Team B head to head, but still not win a tiebreak involving Teams A, B and C).

2. A team can be in the playoffs if tiebreakers are applied "as if the season ended today", proceed to win out, and still not make the playoffs. (Future games can change tiebreakers).

3. Common opponents come before conference record when determining tiebreaks within a division. The non-conference games are common opponents, so for division tiebreaks they are actually more important that the 2 conference games that are non-common.

4. The easiest way to figure out common opponents is to use the fact that the team that does better in the 2 non-common opponents games is going to have a worse record against common opponents. In this way this tiebreak can be "locked in" early in the season, because one only has to look at the results of 2 games for each team.
That being said, if we're the team that gets hot and wins  
dpinzow : 11/11/2013 9:06 am : link
the division at 9-7 then that belief will develop in our team that won us two Super Bowls under Coughlin (nobody can kill us). Also in a scenario where we finish 9-7, we're going to be ultra-hot entering the playoffs (9 wins out of 10)
Strange that it would almost be ideal to lose to Seattle  
Bramton1 : 11/11/2013 9:53 am : link
Which is good, because that's the one game this season that I can't really imagine us winning.
First off, I love that Ray in Arlington actually has  
Mike in Long Beach : 11/11/2013 11:07 am : link
an opportunity to post these after an 0-6 start.

Second, can someone (in basic terms) please explain to me how losing to Seattle would be beneficial for us? I can't wrap my head around that.
it is not beneficial  
ray in arlington : 11/11/2013 11:22 am : link
see my explanations above
whew okay..  
Mike in Long Beach : 11/11/2013 12:14 pm : link
I think I got it now.

The loss to Seattle just means that the circumstances creating a tie would have meant the Giants won that common opponent tie breaker, but that tie would be far more difficult to achieve in the first place.

Took me a while, but I got there.

Thanks Ray!
This should be stickied all week, imo.  
Mike in Long Beach : 11/11/2013 6:49 pm : link
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