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NFC East Race and Tiebreakers (corrected)

ray in arlington : 11/15/2013 10:44 am
Very sorry....I had an error in the 2-way tiebreaker against the Eagles in my previous post (for STEP 2). The corrected version is actually worse for the Giants than what I had before. I also made a few other tweaks based on comments I have received.

Obviously this all becomes unlikely if the Giants don't win this weekend.

Quick summary:
- To win a 2-way tiebreak against DAL Giants will need to beat DAL and have DAL lose to PHIL or WAS.

- Would be tough to win a tiebreak against PHIL if PHIL wins this week (would give PHIL 3-2 against division while Giants are 1-2)

- The SEA game is the one the Giants can "most afford to lose" from a tiebreak perspective.

Giants vs DAL (2-way tie):
STEP 1: (Head-to-head)
Giants lose to DAL = DAL takes tiebreak
Giants beat DAL = Go to step 2

STEP 2: (Division)
DAL beats PHIL and WAS = DAL takes tiebreak
Giants beat WAS twice AND DAL loses to PHIL and WAS = NYG take tiebreak
Giants beat WAS twice AND DAL loses to PHIL or WAS = go to step 3
Giants beat WAS once AND DAL loses to PHIL and WAS = go to step 3
Giants don’t beat WAS at all = DAL takes tiebreak

STEP 3: (Common Opponents)
Giants lose to SEA = NYG take tiebreak
Giants beat SEA = go to step 4
(Note: this may look like it is “better” to lose to SEA, but that is not true overall because losing to SEA decreases the probability of getting into a tie situation in the first place).

STEP 4: (Conference)
DAL does better against GB and CHI than NYG does against GB and DET = DAL takes tiebreak
Otherwise = Strength of Victory

Giants vs PHIL (2-way tie):
STEP 1: (Head-to-head)
Teams split. Go to step 2.

STEP 2: (Division)
Team finishing with better division record wins tiebreak. If it is the same go to step 3.

If PHIL beats WAS this weekend:
PHIL 3-2 in division (only DAL game left). Giants 1-2 (2 WAS games and DAL game left)
If WAS beats PHIL this weekend:
PHIL 2-3 in division (only DAL game left). Giants 1-2 (2 WAS games and DAL game left)

STEP 3: (Common Opps)
Giants lose to SEA OR PHI beats ARIZ = NYG take tiebreak
Giants beat SEA AND ARIZ beats PHIL = go to step 4

STEP 4: (Conference)
Decided by best record against NFC North. PHI currently 1-0. Giants 1-1.

Giants vs Phi and Dal (3 way tie)
STEP 1: Head to head among teams.
NYG beats DAL and PHIL beats DAL = Go to step 2
Otherwise = DAL takes tiebreak.

STEP 2: Division Record

This would be decided by best performance against WAS.

If PHIL beats WAS this weekend, it is
PHIL 2-0
DAL 1-0
NYG 0-0
So Giants can’t win the division record tiebraker in this case. If they swept WAS, they would get to Step 3 if DAL beat WAS and would return to the 2-way tie with PHIL if WAS beat DAL.

If WAS beats PHIL this weekend, it is
DAL 1-0
PHIL 1-1
NYG 0-0
and there are various possibilities. If all 3 end up 1-1 against WAS go to step 3.

STEP 3: Common opponents
Giants lose to SEA = NYG takes tiebreak
Giants beat SEA and PHI beat ARI = reverts to 2-way tiebreak with DAL
Giants beat SEA and ARI beats PHI = go to STEP 4.

Compare records against NFC North for all 3 teams, etc.
AcidTest : 11/15/2013 10:55 am : link
give you full credit for doing and understanding this, but my head is spinning.
I'm not picking up on a lot of this  
bjwilleatyou : 11/15/2013 11:06 am : link
But it seems to me like we're completely screwed if we end up tied with either of these teams?
bottom line  
YorkAveGiant : 11/15/2013 12:16 pm : link
beat the pack. then beat the pokes and sweep wash. without those cards in hand....all tiebreakers are moot.
Too many variables...  
silverfox : 11/15/2013 12:39 pm : link
...that make this sort of thing an exercise in futility, although a very interesting read.

Our chances are incredibly slim no matter who's analysis you look at. We are really hurting in two areas that will end us in a lost season unless immediately corrected....our QB and special teams are playing like shit. The defense cannot carry this team once we get the higher scoring offensive opponents.

Just going on step at a time..1 game at a time  
micky : 11/15/2013 12:45 pm : link
First of all beat the Pack. But, as important..Wash beat philly this weekend.
again...thanks ray  
micky : 11/15/2013 12:46 pm : link
Looking at this  
Mike in NY : 11/15/2013 12:47 pm : link
The best combination for the Giants' playoff chances is:
1) Washington beats Philly
2) Philly beats Dallas

Correct me if I am wrong
Mike in NY  
ray in arlington : 11/15/2013 1:18 pm : link
1) seems to be true because as WAS loss would put the Eagles at 6-5, the Giants at 4-6 (at best) and have the Eagles at 3-2 vs. Giants 1-2 in the division. And the Giants have the opportunity to handle WAS themselves in 2 games.

2) doesn't happen until week 17 so I consider that to be guesswork.

Thanks ray!  
jcn56 : 11/15/2013 1:20 pm : link
You always do these, and I usually look forward to them (the Giants are to blame for that not being the case this year, not you).
and in the Quick summary  
ray in arlington : 11/15/2013 1:20 pm : link
when I say what the Giants "need" to do to win a tiebreak against DAL, I don't mean it guarantees wining that tiebreak. Beat DAL and having DAL lose to WAS or PHIL are prerequistites, but may not be sufficient.
I think I'll wait  
Bill in UT : 11/15/2013 2:59 pm : link
a few weeks before I try to read one of these
Ray, incredible work.  
Montreal Man : 11/15/2013 3:11 pm : link
I'm saving it so I can check it every week.

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