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Does this season hurt Eli's HoF chances?

arcarsenal : 12/16/2013 10:36 am
First off.. this isn't an "Eli sux!" thread, so let's just get that out of the way.

That said, I think we all would have agreed after the 2nd Super Bowl that Eli basically could have hung them up at that point and would have had a strong case to be a Hall of Famer.

This year has been about as bad as a QB who has accomplished what he has could possibly have. Eli is having the year of a rookie QB or a backup forced into starting duty more or less.

You can look at a guy like Dan Fouts who threw a lot of INT's in his career (five 20+ INT seasons) who is in the HoF but he never led the league in picks. This is the 3rd time Eli has in 10 seasons.

Basically what I'm asking is.. do you think Eli has to sort of "earn" his way back into HoF consideration or do you think regardless of this year, he's already done enough? Even if he had average years from here on out, I would have thought he'd probably get in. But this year has been so bad that I'm not quite sure anymore. I think it's a pretty big black eye and I feel like he's going to have to re-establish himself with a couple more big years even if he doesn't win another title.

What say you?
I think it does  
dep026 : 12/16/2013 10:38 am : link
even though he should be a lock.

HOF will always be a number game, and even though Eli will have yards and TDs by the end of his career, he wont have the prestigious QB Rating, which is probably he worst advanced stat in all of sports.

Now if he rebounds with 4-5 good seasons of 3,500-4,000 yards 20 TD seasons, it may change. And obviously 1 more Sb gets him in. But the INTs, completion percentage, and QB rating will be used more than anything else.
Certainly doesn't help it  
jeff57 : 12/16/2013 10:39 am : link
.
Probably  
moespree : 12/16/2013 10:39 am : link
I always thought even before this season he would struggle to get in. Not because I don't think he deserves it, but because I'm almost positive some of the people who vote don't think so. After this season they'll feel their opinion on him has been validated.
...  
SanFranGiantsFan : 12/16/2013 10:39 am : link
Well it certainly doesn't help his chances.

I think he'll bounce back big next season.
not sure  
japanhead : 12/16/2013 10:40 am : link
what the consensus is among coaches and players, but i've noticed that it's only giants fans who thinks eli has a shot at the hall of fame in the first place. the common belief, at least from what i can surmise is that while eli can be an above average quarterback, he was largely the beneficiary of the giants defense getting hot at the right time in both 2007-8 and 2011-12. i suppose to some extent that's true, even in 2011 when he played his "best" season.
I don't know  
JOMO25 : 12/16/2013 10:40 am : link
I'm just concerned that we have to deal with a long duration for management to figure out how to get out from the weight of a contract that doesn't match the production. Its a franchise killer.
It hurts..  
Sean in PA : 12/16/2013 10:40 am : link
but I fully believe he has another big year in him.
With Eli beating the Patriots twice..  
Canton : 12/16/2013 10:41 am : link
with arguably the best QB that has ever played the game and a Head Coach for the ages, since Vince Lombardi.. (at least in my mind) .. makes him a lock. Especially in the fashion it was done..
No absolutely not. And this talk will look silly looking back after  
Giants Fan in Steelers Land : 12/16/2013 10:41 am : link
his career is over. I don't think his career is close to being finished.

I think its similar to the Peyton is a choker notion. Casual fans have said that for years but I think the voters are smart enough to recognize that he had no defense most years and thats why his teams lost in the playoffs. I think the voters will realize how bad this team was this year.
Face it, if it weren't for two plays in the super bowl  
jeff57 : 12/16/2013 10:42 am : link
I think he would be a long shot.
RE: not sure  
arcarsenal : 12/16/2013 10:42 am : link
In comment 11398685 japanhead said:
Quote:
what the consensus is among coaches and players, but i've noticed that it's only giants fans who thinks eli has a shot at the hall of fame in the first place. the common belief, at least from what i can surmise is that while eli can be an above average quarterback, he was largely the beneficiary of the giants defense getting hot at the right time in both 2007-8 and 2011-12. i suppose to some extent that's true, even in 2011 when he played his "best" season.


I can buy the defense carrying him in 2007-8 a bit.. but he was pretty damn good throughout the postseason in 2011-12. He threw 9 TD's to 1 INT and had a rating over 100, IIRC. He was excellent.
I didn't think he was any kind of lock for the HOF to begin with  
Greg from LI : 12/16/2013 10:42 am : link
So, yes, I think this season will be a major obstacle unless he reverses course awfully soon.
Definitely puts him back on the bubble.  
bceagle05 : 12/16/2013 10:42 am : link
I figured he was a lock after the second ring, figuring he would put up good numbers over the next few years to cement his place. But the last year and a half - yikes. He needs to do more.
It certainly does  
shabu : 12/16/2013 10:43 am : link
it does because the game has changed and passing yards are much easier to come by.

Although the 2 superbowls likely puts him over the top he better end up top 5-8 in passing yards or I don't necessarily see him going in.
I think in order for him to make it  
Go Terps : 12/16/2013 10:43 am : link
He is going to have to absolutely kick the door in. I don't think he's well liked or regarded by a relatively high percentage of players (both playing and former players) and media members.

Yesterday I barely watched any football...I just had the Red Zone on a lap top in the background. They cut away for each of Eli's first four picks. There is definitely a schadenfreude when it comes to him.

I think he'll need another Super Bowl win, because the stats are going to pale in comparison to his contemporaries in the Arena League (last week the league set a record for TDs scored...yesterday a record for points...what a product!).
Certainly won't help any  
JonC : 12/16/2013 10:44 am : link
There figures to be plenty of voters who'd like to leave Eli in the just-missed list with Simms, Plunkett ...
the way you end your career  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 12/16/2013 10:44 am : link
has an enormous impact on your legacy. It's kind of dumb, but absolutely true. John Elway became a GOAT candidate after his last 2 years, Brett Favre was a GOAT QB candidate before the final chapter of his career where he killed his legacy.

After 2011, Eli looked like he was heading to the HOF. But after this season, he's on the outside looking in. An in his prime HOF QB should not be having this kind of season.

The good news for Eli is that his legacy included the word "inconsistent" even before this year. So if he bounces back with a strong year it wouldn't be surprising. But he needs to bounce back and have a strong 2-4 year run here to put himself back in the "probable" section for the HOF.
Yes it has..  
JCin332 : 12/16/2013 10:44 am : link
His biggest problem is he will always be compared to his brother in a negative way..

I do believe though that the Giants will retool the OL this offseason and his numbers will bounce back and I think he will win one more before all is said and one..
Absolutely  
Sammo284 : 12/16/2013 10:45 am : link
He's helped himself by staying healthy and playing large numbers of games that way, but he's had now two fairly long rough stretches in his career where he's struggled and tallied some terrible turnover stats/ratios.


RE: I didn't think he was any kind of lock for the HOF to begin with  
Jim in Forest Hills : 12/16/2013 10:45 am : link
In comment 11398699 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
So, yes, I think this season will be a major obstacle unless he reverses course awfully soon.


Agree with this. He'll have to play his way in from here on out.
Eli  
dontboobigblue : 12/16/2013 10:45 am : link
Is not a hall of fame quarterback. There is a major gap between players like him and Rogers, Brees, Brady and his brother. Those guys are all significantly better than him.

They dominate on a week to week basis.
Jeff  
UConn4523 : 12/16/2013 10:45 am : link
way to ignore everything that got them to the 2 SB's and the lucky plays that happen in every SB.

You can say the very same about Roethlisberger who had one of the all time worst performances in a SB win followed up with a miracle catch by Holmes. His D was also insane.

What about Flacco against Manning last year?

You can go on and on and on...
Not sure Ben is HOF material  
jeff57 : 12/16/2013 10:46 am : link
Flacco sure isn't at this point.
I think so.  
Mad Mike : 12/16/2013 10:47 am : link
I don't really have a great feel for the line for getting in to the NFL HOF, but in general I think a guy has to be consistently among the best in the game to get in. I think voters could have questioned whether Eli met that standard even before this season, and this year certainly highlights his inconsistency. The heights of his career have been pretty terrific, but we're seeing a pretty deep low right now, and that counts too.
the short answer is yes  
G Fan : 12/16/2013 10:48 am : link
it will hurt his chances. NFL careers are relatively short and anytime you have a complete turd of a season, it has to hurt to some extent. Having said that, he probably has a good 5 years left in him.............and, if he could somehow turn things around and have 5 very good/great seasons with impressive playoff performances in at least SOME of them, he will be a lock.
him and Big Ben will either both get in or both be left out  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 12/16/2013 10:49 am : link
can't see one making it and not the other. But after this season, Big Ben is slightly ahead of Eli. Ben's dealt with awful OL issues at times in his career, he never played like this. But Eli has his positives over Big Ben as well.
RE: Face it, if it weren't for two plays in the super bowl  
JCin332 : 12/16/2013 10:50 am : link
In comment 11398696 jeff57 said:
Quote:
I think he would be a long shot.


Seriously..?

He was the BEST player in the post season overall in both those runs..
RE: RE: I didn't think he was any kind of lock for the HOF to begin with  
Chef : 12/16/2013 10:51 am : link
In comment 11398720 Jim in Forest Hills said:
Quote:
In comment 11398699 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


So, yes, I think this season will be a major obstacle unless he reverses course awfully soon.



Agree with this. He'll have to play his way in from here on out.


I am in total agreement with this
TC & Eli are on the Outside Looking Now...  
mvftw : 12/16/2013 10:51 am : link
Eli needs a breakout year...TC a long shot...
RE: I didn't think he was any kind of lock for the HOF to begin with  
BrettNYG10 : 12/16/2013 10:52 am : link
In comment 11398699 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
So, yes, I think this season will be a major obstacle unless he reverses course awfully soon.


I agree. He's had one year of elite Quarterback play (top 5 QB), a plethora of top ten QB play, this disaster, and a couple pedestrian years.

He needs another 2-3 elite years or another SB run to qualify as a lock.
Coughlin is a mortal lock.  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 10:52 am : link
.
People need to really stop parroting  
Sammo284 : 12/16/2013 10:53 am : link
with this idea that Eli is going to bounce back in a big way next season or that he's here for at least a good five or six more years.

We simply don't know and at least in terms of being here five more years, I'd bet under on that.

Not all QBs last long into their mid-late 30s, and it's even less likely to stick with the original team especially when they're being paid huge money.
RE: Coughlin is a mortal lock.  
BrettNYG10 : 12/16/2013 10:53 am : link
In comment 11398763 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
.


I'd be shocked if TC doesn't get in.
I think he's a very good, above average QB  
MBavaro : 12/16/2013 10:54 am : link
who has won two Super Bowls. Extremely hard to find. HOF'er? Way too inconsistent to put him in that category, not even taking into account this season. That being said, the Giants would be crazy to think about getting rid of him.
I think he will get in on the narrative...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 10:55 am : link
that he and his brother, as of right now, have a combined 3 Superbowl MVP's and championships. If Peyton wins another one... 2 brothers, four superbowls, at least 3 MVP's (if not four) between them. The NFL wants/needs that exhibit in Canton.

His stats are all up there in accordance with inclusion, and INT's by themself won't keep him out.

His last name and his two Superbowl MVP's, his clutch reputation, and the records that back that up get him in.
No,  
AnishPatel : 12/16/2013 10:56 am : link
if Eli had this happened with a good OL, productive TE, and skill players playing well then yeah. It def. would hurt his chances. Under these current conditions, I don't see how any QB would play well.

No would is going to expect or say Eli had no OL. They can't run block or pass block. They have no TE corpps, and their X is useless. They have musical RBs, and still through all that Eli had a nearly 5K season, and almost 30 TDs with 15 ints.

That shit isn't going to happen or should be expected. I don't see how Eli could have done well. So I think voters will be fine with it.

This is ELi's first losing season since he started a full season for us.
it also depends what else happens.  
PaulBlakeTSU : 12/16/2013 10:57 am : link
Right now, he's behind Peyton, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. I imagine he's behind Ben, also, who is 2-1 in SBs and can still put up numbers even when his O-line is dogshit (for whatever that's worth in real value). If Romo or Rivers do get to the mountaintop, their rate stats are incredible. If Flacco wins another one, where does he compare with Eli (I don't think he's close to as good, but in terms of the general community). And then you have youngsters like Luck and Wilson where it looks like the sky is the limit.

It all depends how many QBs the era wants to induct.
The funny thing is the lack of  
dep026 : 12/16/2013 10:58 am : link
pro bowl players Eli has on offense, especially skilled players:

Tiki Barber - 2 x
Jeremy Shockey - 2x
Victor Cruz - 1x

These 3 were the only ones initially named to the Pro Bowl. Only 1 coming from 2007 on. Steve Smith was an alternate that eventually replaced another WR. So a total of 6 pro bowls from 4 players, only 2 since 2007.
Players whose Hall of Fame stock fell the most in 2013:  
Big Blue Blogger : 12/16/2013 10:58 am : link
1. Aaron Hernandez
2. Eli Manning

And it's close, because Hernandez was already a long shot. Plenty of time for Eli to regain lost ground, though (Elway-style, I hope). Can't say the same for Hernandez.
It depends on how you see the rest of his career playing out.  
Giants Fan in Steelers Land : 12/16/2013 11:01 am : link
I still see him playing here for a while. Put him behind a good line for the rest of his career and I don't see why he can't play into his 40's. Most QBs don't do that but most aren't named Manning. I think he's already shown in his career that his play style and body lends itself to not getting injured
It definitely does  
Jay on the Island : 12/16/2013 11:01 am : link
The members of the media are all about the "What have you done for me lately mentality." They will say that Eli's interceptions are the reason he doesn't belong in the hall of fame which is ironic when a guy like Namath is in despite having nearly 50 more INT's than TD passes.
Coughlin's a mortal lock? How?  
Greg from LI : 12/16/2013 11:03 am : link
Anyway, going back to Roethlisberger.....oddly enough, the #1 name in career comps for him at Football Reference is none other than Elisha Nelson Manning.

Eli's got him slightly beat in yards and TDs, but he's also thrown fifty more interceptions than him. They're roughly even in fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives. Both have two titles, although BR was never the MVP and Eli was the MVP twice. Ben's made another Super Bowl, though, where Eli hasn't won a playoff game outside of 2007 and 2011. They're very, very close. I'd say Ben has a slight edge but not enough of one to be significant.
RE: Coughlin's a mortal lock? How?  
BrettNYG10 : 12/16/2013 11:04 am : link
In comment 11398822 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Anyway, going back to Roethlisberger.....oddly enough, the #1 name in career comps for him at Football Reference is none other than Elisha Nelson Manning.

Eli's got him slightly beat in yards and TDs, but he's also thrown fifty more interceptions than him. They're roughly even in fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives. Both have two titles, although BR was never the MVP and Eli was the MVP twice. Ben's made another Super Bowl, though, where Eli hasn't won a playoff game outside of 2007 and 2011. They're very, very close. I'd say Ben has a slight edge but not enough of one to be significant.


That's really interesting. I didn't realize Ben and Eli were so close in comebacks.
When comparing Eli and Ben, or Eli and anybody really...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 11:08 am : link
you should include durability, and consecutive starts.

Also, when comparing 4th qtr. comebacks, I think Eli's 4th quarter TD record, a longstanding record held by both Unitas and Peyton, gives Eli an edge.

As far as Tom Coughlin being a lock, just look at his entire body of work.

Built a franchise from scratch and took them to two AFC Title Games. Won two Superbowls with the Giants. Had a Superbowl win as an assistant. Look at his win percentage for his career.

He's a lock.
Brett  
Greg from LI : 12/16/2013 11:08 am : link
Yep - by PFR's criteria Eli has 24 fourth quarter comebacks and 28 GW drives, Roethlisberger has 22 and 29.
How is Coughlin a lock?  
bceagle05 : 12/16/2013 11:09 am : link
Because Marv Levy is in there, for starters.
Winning percentage?  
Greg from LI : 12/16/2013 11:13 am : link
George Seifert has a .648 winning percentage and two rings, and he's not getting in. And as far as building Jacksonville goes - the NFL bent the rules for the expansion teams. The Panthers went 12-4 and made the NFC title game in their second season. That team didn't have the run Jacksonville had, but the implosion of Kerry Collins' career in 1997 and 1998 made that a foregone conclusion.
Let's be realistic  
Marty866b : 12/16/2013 11:16 am : link
Watching Eli's COMPLETE career,does anyone really think you're seeing a Hall Of Fame quarterback. I always thought of the players getting enshrined to be among the all time greats. To me, Eli is not one of those.
People care about a building in Ohio? Really?  
hitchchops : 12/16/2013 11:17 am : link
Nothing more meaningless than HOF discussions in any sport, because it is a designation with no true meaning, and I have never figured out why a fan should care about someone else's legacy.
Siefert doesn't have the length of work...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 11:18 am : link
that Coughlin had, and he also inherited a powerhouse from Bill Walsh.

When he was hired by Carolina they fell flat on their faces.

Coughlin has been a winner, and built winners, everywhere he's gone.

Also, as far as the NFL "bending the rules" for expansion teams, that's irrelevant. The rules were the rules, and you play the hand you're dealt.
A few thoughts  
Matt M. : 12/16/2013 11:20 am : link
1) Yes, he is still on a HoF path

2) Eli and Roethlisberger are very close. I think both are HoF QBs.

3) Personally, I wanted the Giants to stand pat and draft Roethlisberger in 2004 strictly because I didn't think there was a huge difference in the two to have to trade up for Eli. that said, I believed than and still do that Eli was the best QB in that draft. once they made the deal, I had no complaints.
RE: People care about a building in Ohio? Really?  
arcarsenal : 12/16/2013 11:21 am : link
In comment 11398883 hitchchops said:
Quote:
Nothing more meaningless than HOF discussions in any sport, because it is a designation with no true meaning, and I have never figured out why a fan should care about someone else's legacy.


Actually, I can think of something more meaningless... jumping into a conversation you're not interested in to tell people that you don't find it meaningful. Thanks for your opinion.

Anyway.. I think had Eli finished his career out with career average type years, he'd have had a decent shot. But this season has just been so bad.. I can't think of any HoF QB off the top of my head with a year THIS bad. There may be one.. I just can't think of one.

I know the line is awful, I know there are a lot of factors at play here.. but the guy is probably going to throw 30 INT's this year. 30!
YES  
ZogZerg : 12/16/2013 11:25 am : link
He needs to put together some solid years to even be considered at this point.
Joe Namath had seasons like this  
Greg from LI : 12/16/2013 11:26 am : link
But he's not really in Hall of Fame for his play anyway. He's in because of the historical significance of SB III and for being a cultural icon.

Now, of course, his defenders (who are legion around here) will eventually parachute in to explain why a totally amazing awesome QB like Joe Namath threw 50 more INTs than TDs in his career.
Pretty sure we've had this thread at or near the end of the last three  
vibe4giants : 12/16/2013 11:26 am : link
seasons. Which says quite a bit about the up and down nature of Eli's last few years.

I really don't care about Eli's chances at the HoF right now. While I get that trying to predict the future is a fun part of being a fan for a lot of people, it's never interested me. Mostly because all of these predictions are almost always wrong, especially (it seems) when it comes to the Giants. What this year means or doesn't for Eli's chances is impossible to say from here. Still, hopefully, too much career left.

I hope Eli plays a lot better next year. And gets a lot more help. I'll start thinking about his chances at the HoF when he announces his retirement and we can look back on his entire body of work.
Wow, arc calls the kettle black  
hitchchops : 12/16/2013 11:27 am : link
Cool start to my week
If you weren't a Giants fan,  
Lowell.. : 12/16/2013 11:28 am : link
you'd laugh at the idea of Eli getting into the HOF.
.  
arcarsenal : 12/16/2013 11:28 am : link
I get zero enjoyment out of NASCAR, WWE, tennis, golf.. next time you see me posting on those threads when they pop up to tell people I'm not interested in those things, let me know.
.  
arcarsenal : 12/16/2013 11:31 am : link
Lowell.. you're probably right. But it would just be biased from the opposite angle.

As it stands now, I don't think it's a lock whatsoever. And after this season, I think he's on the outside looking in. He has to re-establish himself as a big time QB in order to make it, IMO.
arcar  
Matt M. : 12/16/2013 11:31 am : link
It may be from a different era, but Namath had a few seasons like this. In fact, he has a lot more INTs than TDs for his career.

Bradshaw is another one with a couple of similar seasons.

Tittle had a season worse than this right in the middle of his career.

Unitas had a couple.

Tarkenton had a couple, although one was at the very beginning of his career and the other was his final season.
Yep...  
M.S. : 12/16/2013 11:36 am : link
...it does. He's played like a journeyman free agent QB who has bounced around the league quite a lot.

Just terrible.
The last two years...  
Chris in Philly : 12/16/2013 11:36 am : link
have taken a flamethrower to his HoF lock status. The two Super Bowls are magical, but he hasn't consistently been a top 5 player at his position throughout his career. He hasn't even scratched top 10 for some of these years. These are very damaging bumps in the road, and they are not easily ignored.
Its not just that he won 2 SBs its HOW he won them that is even  
Giants Fan in Steelers Land : 12/16/2013 11:40 am : link
putting him into the discussion at this point. After '11 a lot of people (myself included) thought that he was on the HOF path...that one more SB or playing late into his career and posting a lot of yards and not getting injured will put him in. I don't think this has changed.

I can't imagine voters keeping Eli out because of a bad year where he didn't elevate his game enough around a league worst OL and his stats suffered because of it. Again it all depends on how you see the rest of his career playing out.

He's a two time Super Bowl MVP. If you distance  
BigBlueBuff : 12/16/2013 11:42 am : link
yourself from this season that still stands out on his resume. Furthermore, his career isn't over yet, there is likely an Act II.
Jeff  
UConn4523 : 12/16/2013 11:43 am : link
Ben is absolutely on his way to the HoF. However, my post was pointing out lucky plays of other QB's.

What about Brady and the Tuck Rule?

Saying if it weren't for 2 plays is ridiculous. What Eli accomplished in both runs was remarkable, especially beating the teams we did, all but 1 on the road.
He should try throwing the ball with his eyes open  
BeerFridge : 12/16/2013 11:43 am : link
You can't think...  
Chris in Philly : 12/16/2013 11:44 am : link
like a fan - you have to think like a sportwriter/voter. Most people don't think he should even have two Super Bowl MVP's. He needs a great final act to make sure he gets in.
.  
arcarsenal : 12/16/2013 11:47 am : link
His confidence just looks shot right now. I don't blame him.. but everything is just totally out of whack. His mechanics, his accuracy, etc. Seems like every other time he drops back to pass he has to start running away from pressure immediately.

I absolutely think he has some real good years left in the tank but the FO really need to fix what's going on right now by putting people in front of him who can block.
I never, ever  
Randy in CT : 12/16/2013 11:48 am : link
think about this sort of crap during the career. It is pointless. And premature enough to impact the effectiveness of the guess.
Arc  
Lowell.. : 12/16/2013 11:58 am : link
Eli has only had two years with a 90+ passer rating and never one of over a hundred. Rivers has a career 96 rating with 5 years over 100. Granted Eli has had two superb playoff runs but for his career his stats aren't HOF worthy.
QBR is flawed and I doubt it's a stat they consider heavily...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 12:03 pm : link
Passing yards and TD's are where it's at.

Eli is right in the top 25 of both all time (19th in passing and 24th in TD's). He will likely move into the top 10 all time before it's said and done.
Britt...  
Chris in Philly : 12/16/2013 12:05 pm : link
Don't forget the other stat that will play a big part - INT's.
Yes, but you take the good with the bad.  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 12:06 pm : link
As I said, beyond stats, when the smoke clears... His last name and his two SB's get him in, IMO.
I like what you said,  
Glover : 12/16/2013 12:08 pm : link
Eli was a possible HOFer after winning the SB in 2011/12, but now he needs to work his way back into the conversation. If he leads the GMen to another Lomabrdi, it would be hard to deny him, despite his poor passer ratings and INT numbers. If he is a good QB who has stayed healthy, his numbers will be up there, and 3 Lombardi's would pretty much make him a lock.
He was not a lock HOFer coming into this season  
Jints in Carolina : 12/16/2013 12:09 pm : link
and he sure as hell isn't now.
Interestingly enough, here are some guys that are actually AHEAD...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 12:10 pm : link
of Eli (169) in All Time INT's:

Drew Brees (175)
Peyton Manning (219)
Brett Favre (336)
RE: He's a two time Super Bowl MVP. If you distance  
Greg from LI : 12/16/2013 12:12 pm : link
In comment 11398973 BigBlueBuff said:
Quote:
yourself from this season that still stands out on his resume. Furthermore, his career isn't over yet, there is likely an Act II.


Possible? Sure. Likely? How the hell can anyone say that with any conviction?
RE: You can't think...  
Matt M. : 12/16/2013 12:13 pm : link
In comment 11398979 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
like a fan - you have to think like a sportwriter/voter. Most people don't think he should even have two Super Bowl MVP's. He needs a great final act to make sure he gets in.


Yes and no. After that second SB, it was almost unanimous in the media that he answered his critics, he was elite, etc. That is even for those who didn't feel he was the MVP. Among the first things mentioned when Eli is discussed, at this point, are the two SB wins, the two SB MVPs, and the 4th quarter stats/comebacks. Those weigh heavily in his favor at this point.

However, the flip side is that the INTs always get equal time, and rightfully so. I have a feeling one more glory season makes his HOF decision about the eye test based on the titles. however, one more season like this year could overshadow the wins and swing it the other way.
when its all said and done  
UConn4523 : 12/16/2013 12:13 pm : link
he'll be in the HoF.

Playing in NY, 2 magical SB runs, Giants all time leader in everything, great with the media, and whatever else is still to come.

It won't be 1st ballot, but his getting in.
slight problem with that, Britt  
Greg from LI : 12/16/2013 12:17 pm : link
Here are those same guys in TDs:

Favre 508 (#1 all time), Peyton 483 (#2), Brees 358 (#4), Eli 227 (#24)

Passing yards:

Favre 71,838 (#1), Peyton 64,298 (#2), Brees 50,419 (#5), Eli 34,937 (#19)

Much bigger gaps between those guys in good categories.
INTs are not the end of the argument  
RasputinPrime : 12/16/2013 12:18 pm : link
and Eli will have plenty of time to get things back on track provided he is given the horses to do it with.
Greg  
BigBlueBuff : 12/16/2013 12:19 pm : link
Because the term "likely" expresses an opinion and unlike some of you fucknuts around here, I actually believe in Eli.
Here's another discrepancy, Greg.  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 12:22 pm : link
Favre: 1 Superbowl
Peyton: 1 Superbowl
Brees: 1 Superbowl

Eli: 2 Superbowls.

We're talking about overall body of work, are we not?

There are few active players ahead of Eli on any of those lists.

He will likely break into the top ten in both passing yards and TD's, All Time, when it's said and done.

He may or may not break into the top ten in INT's. He's have to throw 20 picks every year for the next five years to do it. He could, but it's unlikely that a. he'll do that, and b. he may not play another five years.

You take the good with the bad. Period. Yes, the INT's are bad, but there is a lot more good.
One more Super Bowl  
Phil from WNY : 12/16/2013 12:23 pm : link
and he's a lock but not until then.
RE: The last two years...  
Ash : 12/16/2013 12:29 pm : link
In comment 11398960 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
have taken a flamethrower to his HoF lock status. The two Super Bowls are magical, but he hasn't consistently been a top 5 player at his position throughout his career. He hasn't even scratched top 10 for some of these years. These are very damaging bumps in the road, and they are not easily ignored.


That is absolutely right. I look at Eli and I see a guy who's played like a HOFer in the two biggest spots of his career. I see the rest of his career and I see a guy who's been a slightly above average QB. Whether he's a HOFer depends on the relative weight you put on two magical runs and the rest of the body of his work.
You rarely  
fkap : 12/16/2013 12:32 pm : link
hear sportscasters/analysts fellate Eli the way they fellated a whole host of other QB's, the latest being Wilson. While a lot of these QB's are the flavor of the year, and then yesterday's news, it still remains that Eli has always remained consistently below the top tier of QB's everyone is raving about. Giants fans aside, few consider him anything close to a lock for HOF. a candidate, sure, but he's always had warts, and he's tanking toward the end of his career. As CiP said, this season took a flamethrower to his chances.

He has to step up his game if he wants to be enshrined.
Eli  
Phil from WNY : 12/16/2013 12:38 pm : link
has been better than the top-tier QB's when it has counted the most.
Absolutely Phil.  
Ash : 12/16/2013 12:41 pm : link
But the question about the HOF also involves his regular season play too. The HOF is a reward for sustained excellence. Joe Montana, for instance, played HOF ball when it counted most and played HOF ball most Sundays too.
He ain't gonna make  
bluepepper : 12/16/2013 12:49 pm : link
it as it stands now. 2 Super Bowls don't make you a lock. How many folks think Ben is a lock? Or Flacco if the Ravens win another in the next couple of years?

His career yards, td's etc just don't stack up to other elite QB's as Greg said, and worse, by the time he is eligible at least a few of the younger QB's will have as good or better numbers. Guys like Stafford, Ryan, Luck, Wilson etc.

And the interceptions kill him. The HOF voters aren't going to buy the "most of the interceptions are someone else's fault" line.
The past 2 seasons have definitely hurt Eli's HOF chances  
Rick in Dallas : 12/16/2013 12:52 pm : link
as of right now it's a tough call. 2 SB wins and MVP's a huge plus for Eli but he has been so darn inconsistent so far in his career.
He needs one more ring  
CaLLaHaN : 12/16/2013 12:53 pm : link
Or he is not getting in.
I think the last drive...  
UncleGrandpa : 12/16/2013 12:59 pm : link
...of the 2007 SB is what legends are made of...beating a team in the last minute (that was destined for immortality by going undefeated the entire season). Eli killed that dream for New England and thus will always be remembered for that.

He also had to do the same thing in 2011 however NE was not undefeated that year. Last drive heroics again.

I think winning a SB the way he did by having to score a TD in the waning seconds to win it all....is an amazing accomplishment in itself. Not just winning, but the circumstances of the wins.

However having said that....since then, he has regressed to a point where he is almost laughable to watch.

Ash  
Phil from WNY : 12/16/2013 1:08 pm : link
Different players get into the Hall for different things. If Eli wins a third ring it will be for consistently winning SB's. Eli is flawed but if given the choice of Eli or the top-rated QB's to start a SB, I'm going with Eli.

People want to compare Eli to other QB's but by standard measures, he comes up short. But if you measure him only by standard measures, you miss what makes him great.
That's fine Phil  
Ash : 12/16/2013 1:23 pm : link
but different things is an awfully nebulous term. I know what you're alluding to (and it's not "Oh Warren Sapp got in for being a great pass rushing DT but other DT's have gotten in for elite run D over a long period of time"), but almost all HOFers get in because of sustained excellence. Eli doesn't stack up by that measure.
Ash  
Phil from WNY : 12/16/2013 1:27 pm : link
3 SB MVP's is a form of sustained excellence.
well let's see him get to  
Ash : 12/16/2013 1:28 pm : link
three Phil. 2 SB's with slightly above average regular season play was enough. But if he's going to be abysmal in the regular season, then he'll need another SB run.
Ash  
Phil from WNY : 12/16/2013 1:30 pm : link
That's how I see it. He needs a third but after 2007 and 2011, I wouldn't bet against him.
RE: well let's see him get to  
Mason : 12/16/2013 1:34 pm : link
In comment 11399409 Ash said:
Quote:
three Phil. 2 SB's with slightly above average regular season play was enough. But if he's going to be abysmal in the regular season, then he'll need another SB run.


I challenge that slightly above average regular season play. 2011 regular season was not the norm, it was more of an exception if his stats are analize objectively along with 2009. While this may be his worse regular season it should be noted that 2007 was rotten but had a nice post season ending.
I think it hurts for certain...  
Jimmy Googs : 12/16/2013 1:36 pm : link
But if he calms down and can lead any of his future "teams" to one more Superbowl, then I would say he is in.
...  
JayD : 12/16/2013 1:57 pm : link
to be a hall of famer you should be considered one of the very best at your position for a good portion of your career
like a t brady p manning or d brees



He's gonna need another super bowl after this season  
Mondo : 12/16/2013 3:10 pm : link
.
What's going to hurt him the most  
GMANinDC : 12/16/2013 3:20 pm : link
And arc set it well, he had one top 5 QB season..but more pedestrian seasons with a hell of a lot of INT's..

Plus, around the time he retires, he's going to be in the que with Brees, Ben, Rodgers, and maybe even Rivers. His 2 rings will give him leverage, but head to head against those 3, he's probably going to lose because of those picks..

And it's not he's going to be evaluated just on 2 rings..They are going to compare him against his brother..
Nope - Eli's going into the Hall of Fame  
gidiefor : 12/16/2013 3:31 pm : link
He was part of one of the most memorable Superbowls ever and one of the iconic plays ever seen on a football field - he is Hall of Fame worthy - the only thing that would keep him out is a Pete Rose kind of scandal
gidie,  
GiantFilthy : 12/16/2013 3:37 pm : link
so you think he is in if he decided to retire today?

You know, it's interesting....  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 3:38 pm : link
We'll know definitively one way or the other in ten years.

I know history will view Eli Manning kindly long down the road. I wonder how Giants fans will view him... Will we have arguments on this board 20 years for now that Eli is the worst HOF QB in there, because they don't want to come off their 20 year old argument that we wasted picks in trading for him?

Unlike other times, and debates of the past, everybody's stance from the here and now will likely be archived and accessible.

It's just weird to think one day we'll be able to come back and see exactly what people did and didn't think about him.
Eli's not going into the Hall of Fame now  
islander1 : 12/16/2013 3:40 pm : link
He was borderline going into this season. (Borderline yes). This season is so epicly poor...25 interceptions. 16 TD passes. let that sink in...

Coughlin, however, I still believe is on track.
Any rational and fair-minded Giants' fan will  
Ash : 12/16/2013 3:42 pm : link
look back 15-20 years down the road and remember this era fondly. Eli's given us two titles which is as much as you can ask for from a QB. That said, being remembered fondly and being worthy of the HOF are two different things and so are being remembered fondly and possibly being on the downside of your career (and thus deserving less than 20 million a year). You can hold both positions at the same time.
Yeah, Coughlin's going to get in  
Jimmy Googs : 12/16/2013 3:42 pm : link
i would think. Unless he wants to hang on with this team and go further downhill by starting Diehl again next season :)
Filthy  
gidiefor : 12/16/2013 3:44 pm : link
yes I do
Even Brett can't ruin Eli's  
gidiefor : 12/16/2013 3:46 pm : link
chances
Yeah, I'm not saying either position is right or wrong...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 3:47 pm : link
I just think there is a tendency among posters to paint themselves into a corner, and never concede, because they don't want to be wrong.

I just wonder what the conversations would be like, hypothetically, if he did get in ultimately. Would there be posters here, the same that have chirped the loudest since 2004, in success and failure, that will diminish the accomplishment to support their argument?

Or where there just be a lot of revisionist history and everybody will say they loved him the whole time?

Me? I think he'll get in, but if he doesn't, I don't think it would be that hard to see why he didn't. The inconsitent play and INT's are certainly part of his legacy.
"will", not "where.  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 3:48 pm : link
.
Eli likely will get in  
Patrick77 : 12/16/2013 3:55 pm : link
It is the hall of fame - not hall of the best and most talented of all time. You can't tell the story of the NFL during Eli's tenure and skip over his two great Superbowl runs.

If it was purely from a talent and stats perspective I would say that Eli should not get in when you look at his current resume. It's horribly inconsistent and the successful years almost look like aberrations at this point. For this era of quarterback Eli has a horrible qb rating (overrated), a low completion percentage, and a massive amounts of turnovers.


I really doubt that Eli gets shut out like Jim Plunkett - who was much less of an impact on those superbowl teams and never showed glimpes of Hall of Fame talent. Although when Eli retires it could be he is viewed as the worst HOF QB of his generation. Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and maybe even Flacco (scary thought) could go in before him. I don't think he will go in his first chance. If Eli stays on this current trend and other top QBs win superbowls he could be waiting a long time to get in to the hall.
Lord luv a duck, I'd love to lay 100G on Eli NOT making it to the HOF  
BlueLou : 12/16/2013 3:59 pm : link
with some of you wearing the blue tinted glasses. By many (most) fans of other teams in the NFL he simply isn't a good QB by modern standards, and they are right at this point. His good runs have been the aberrations, not the norm for him.
RE: Even Brett can't ruin Eli's  
GiantFilthy : 12/16/2013 4:02 pm : link
In comment 11399779 gidiefor said:
Quote:
chances


THE HELL HE CAN'T!!
I think he gets the Jim Plunkett treatment  
HomerJones45 : 12/16/2013 4:04 pm : link
I don't see a lot of writers outside of New York voting for him.
This is a good way of putting my earlier sentiment...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 4:06 pm : link
Quote:
It is the hall of fame - not hall of the best and most talented of all time. You can't tell the story of the NFL during Eli's tenure and skip over his two great Superbowl runs.


There are just so many storylines of the past decade that involve Eli...

-He and his brother are back to back Superbowl MVP's. Will that ever happen again?

-Between the two of them, they've got 3 Championships and MVP's, and they're not done. Two brothers in the same era with all that hardware? Will that ever happen again?

-First 10-6 Wildcard team to win a Superbowl, over an 18-0 team. Will that happen again?

-That David Tyree play will be on the highlight reel in 50 years with the immaculate reception and all of those other plays that will be 100 years old at that point.

-First 9-7 team to ever win a Superbowl.

-A stellar 2011 campaign where he put the team on his back, with the 27th ranked defense and 31st ranked rushing attack. 7 4th quarter comebacks that season and broke the 4th Quarter TD record that stood since Unitas.

-Both Superbowl wins over arguably the greatest coach and QB combo of the his generation.

-11-0 on the road in 2007.

-In both playoff runs, he beat the #1 and #2 seeds in the NFC at their house, and both times beat the #1 seed in the AFC.

-Two straight classic NFC Championship wins, one in Green Bay in record cold temps, one in San Fran in a monsoon where he took an extreme beating without turning the ball over.

These are not statistical feats, but as somebody else said... If you're relying solely on statistics, you're missing what makes him great.

Statistically, as Patrick said, it's close but he probably doesn't get in.

But in 20 years and beyond when you're telling the story of the NFL, you can't tell that story without Eli.
You kinda can't tell the whole story of the Giants' history without  
BlueLou : 12/16/2013 4:09 pm : link
"the fumble" either, but that doesn't earn Joe Pisarcik a bust in Canton.
That's not a very good analogy.  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 4:10 pm : link
.
There seems to be this belief that stats are overrated  
Ash : 12/16/2013 4:12 pm : link
and that wins ultimately matter most and that's a rather disingenuous argument, since no one in their right mind would deny that you'd rather have a QB that wins, and wins big than someone who piles up stats but doesn't win the big game.

The point, however, is that stats are a excellent proxy for knowing how well a QB played (as it happens, they seem to capture very well Eli's excellent 4th quarter play throughout his career - save this year). There a couple of games where stats fail us (see the NFC title game 07), but in general those QB's whose stats are excellent also tend to be the greatest winners. Eli might be an exception, but take someone like Ben. He's won as much as Eli has but he's generally been a better regular season QB too.
I don't think stats are overrated...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 4:14 pm : link
I just think sometimes they are overutilized to illustrate the usefulness of a player.

In reality, I think they are just part of the equation. There are things that can't be measured that go into it as well, that's what makes this such an emotional game.
No of course not,  
BlueLou : 12/16/2013 4:16 pm : link
but thinking that Eli is currently an HOF QB on the basis of 2 SB runs, in the face of what's turning out to be an otherwise mediocre career (aside from his durability) isn't very sound thinking, either. And only really affects Giants fans. Other fans think he stinks and "got lucky" twice. Right now that's hard to argue with... On a macro level. Other fans aren't paying attention to the atrocious OL the Giants have fielded this year.
Ash  
BrettNYG10 : 12/16/2013 4:17 pm : link
I find many who talk down stats are attempting to irrationally justify Eli's performance relative to other QB's. Good post.
It puts him on great position to be  
Headhunter : 12/16/2013 4:17 pm : link
Comeback Player of the Year. If they give that award in the NFL that is
"Fans from other teams" will always hate on other QB's.  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 4:19 pm : link
nor will they give them their due. That's what fans do.

Fans don't vote on the HOF.
So the argument is as fans  
Ash : 12/16/2013 4:27 pm : link
we can make poor arguments and not be called out on them precisely because we're fans?
Can't see it  
Marty866b : 12/16/2013 4:40 pm : link
When you see Eli Manning play there is no way I think I am looking at a great quarterback who belongs in the Hall of Fame. Some of you sound like Eli lit up the scoring board in the two Super Bowls. We scored 38 points in TWO games. The defense stopping a great, and surefire Hall of fame qb is the story of the two games IMO.
good post marty...  
BlueLou : 12/16/2013 4:45 pm : link
Phil Simms put up more points and a ridiculously better stats line in ONE SB title than Eli put out in two. 39 points vs 38, and against a more heralded defense of the broncos that year.
Britt the sportswriters who vote for the HOF from cities around the  
BlueLou : 12/16/2013 4:46 pm : link
league view Eli much like their teams' fans do.
RE: I think it does  
MetsAreBack : 12/16/2013 4:47 pm : link
In comment 11398668 dep026 said:
Quote:
even though he should be a lock.

HOF will always be a number game, and even though Eli will have yards and TDs by the end of his career, he wont have the prestigious QB Rating, which is probably he worst advanced stat in all of sports.



First of all, absolutely this season (and the 2nd half of last season) tarnishes both his legacy and his chances at the HoF.

Second, waaaayy too simplistic to blame QB rating on his Hall chances. Voters are also going to point to the lack of divisional titles (in what has been a mediocre division consistently since 2007), the regular season W/L record, and the lack of consistent playoff appearances.

Throw in the INTs... and he's on the outside looking in at this point.

Still has time to bounce back....
people put way too much emphasis on qb rating  
dep026 : 12/16/2013 4:55 pm : link
And MaB this is his first full season with a losing record. Pretty impressive.

I wonder if he makes it to 200+ consecutive starts if that helps his merits.
My point about fans...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 5:36 pm : link
was simply that you can't put much stock into what fans say about their own, or opposing team's QB's.

For example, we always talk about how Manning has the SB's, but not the stats, so we put more emphasis on the wins.

Well, on the Dallas forum, Romo has great stats but no playoff wins, so obviously their stance most of the time is "look at his stats! He blows Eli away".

It's like this around the league. Fans will prop their guy up by whatever metric suits the argument, and tear the other guy down with whatever narrative fits that agenda.

Fans will always twist and turn statistics to fit their narrative.

That was my only point about fans.
His HoF chances  
Jerry in DC : 12/16/2013 7:34 pm : link
in the real world were never anywhere close to where they were on BBI. BBI is really like some kind of alternate universe when it comes to Eli Manning.

When everyone else sees a pass sail yards past a wide open Hakeem Nicks in the end zone against Minneota or way over Brandon Meyers head in Chicago, this is the only place where the receivers get blamed with profanity-laced tirades. Most people watching those games just think it was a bad pass. Nobody else breaks down his interceptions frame by frame like the Zapruder film to see if there's a shred of evidence that the "blame" for the interception can be offloaded onto another Giants player or coach. They just say it was an interception.

Nobody mentions Eli Manning with the elite QBs in the NFL, except people on BBI. Nobody says that he'd be just like Aaron Rodgers if only he played in a different system. Charitable onlookers might view him as a fringe top 10 QB in some seasons. People who are really paying attention would give him a lot of credit for his performance in 2011. But people who look at his career as a whole would see a QB who played a lot of games, threw a lot of passes, accumulated a lot of career stats, and performed at an OK level for most of his career. A guy who may have been at near the top of his position for 1 year and was otherwise a cut or two below (or much farther below at times such as this year). On BBI, people stopped using stats to evaluate QBs in 2004. This practice was not adopted outside of BBI. People still use stats.

There are some people, both on BBI and in the real world, who assign QBs large amounts of credit and blame for the accomplishments and failures of the team. Among those people Eli might be a borderline HoF candidate. For those that look at the entire body of work, it's very difficult to see how Eli (or Roethlisberger for that matter) would get anywhere near the HoF considering that they were rarely, if ever, in the top 20% of players at their position during their careers.
That's interestin, Jerry...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 8:05 pm : link
Quote:
His HoF chances
Jerry in DC : 7:34 pm : link
in the real world were never anywhere close to where they were on BBI. BBI is really like some kind of alternate universe when it comes to Eli Manning.


Because I recall several instances after Superbowl 46 where this very subject was debated in the national media by analysts on both the NFL Network and ESPN.

Here is just one instance.
Link - ( New Window )
Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin, Hall of Fame?  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 8:15 pm : link
Quote:
If Eli Manning retired tomorrow, would he be a Hall of Famer?

Phil Simms thinks so. Simms -- another quarterback who led the New York Giants to the Super Bowl -- believes Big Blue's second title in five years already puts Manning and coach Tom Coughlin in Canton.

"Here we were five years ago, before the Giants won their first Super Bowl, and all the talk that year was maybe the Giants need to bring another quarterback in and Tom Coughlin's in trouble," Simms told USA Today.

"Now they both absolutely one day will go in the Hall of Fame."

Manning has two titles to his name, the same as John Elway, Bart Starr, Bob Griese and Roger Staubach. All four of those men are enshrined in Canton.

"Eli has been a real clutch quarterback," Simms said. "When you talk about why, never underestimate who he plays for and how he's been groomed."

Simms is right about Coughlin, too. Manning has been extremely fortunate to play his entire career under one coach, a man who believed in him and stayed patient during the necessary growing pains.

Now both Manning and Coughlin are reaping the rewards of that patience and dedication. If both go to Canton, they should go together.


8/2/12 - ( New Window )
Does a season like this hurt his chances?  
Sneakers O'toole : 12/16/2013 8:16 pm : link
Absolutely. Does it eliminate him from the conversation? No.
^^^  
Sneakers O'toole : 12/16/2013 8:19 pm : link
And he is in the conversaton, that's not just a Giants fan thing. He's a multiple Super Bowl winning MVP. And in one of those Super Bowls, he made what is arguably one of the most memorable plays in Super Bowl history against an undefeated team. The Hall of Fame is about many things, Eli has earned his place in the conversation.

But seasons like this certainly work against him.
Here's one from December 2012.  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 8:21 pm : link
Interesting article that tackles all of the same points covered in this thread, discusses all his faults, but ultimately ends with this

Quote:
When judging candidates, though, Hall of Fame voters want sustained greatness, not faith, not balance, not a short memory. By the time he retires, Manning could rank in the top five in yards and touchdowns, rankings that might not hold thanks to the explosion of passing stats in the NFL's aerial age. But Canton has plenty of quarterbacks -- Sonny Jurgensen, Warren Moon - -who have produced prolific numbers but lack a defining postseason moment. Manning's career is defined by postseason moments, which has made fans nearly as forgetful as he is.

After all, few remember his first three years of mediocrity, or the league-high 25 interceptions he threw in 2010, or the boneheaded flip he tossed while falling into the welcoming arms of a Bengal earlier this season. When you think of Manning, you see him ending Brett Favre's Green Bay career by firing darts through the black-ice Lambeau air, the heave to Tyree, the dime to Manningham, his redefining of not only his career but also Coughlin's. You recognize greatness not in hitting every shot, just the ones that matter most.


ESPN - ( New Window )
There are many more articles like the ones posted above...  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 8:23 pm : link
but a quick search turned up those, and I thought they were relevant.
There is NO WAY Eli gets in  
EricJ (formerly Tyleraimee) : 12/16/2013 8:34 pm : link
unless he wins a third SB. Aside from those two playoff runs, he has (statistically speaking) been a sub par QB setting NEGATIVE records for his QB play. Remember, Giants fans do not vote. The people who vote will remember BAD ELI more than the Eli we saw win two Superbowls. Why? because we have seen BAD Eli more than the other Eli. BTW, half of the voters out there also believe that the defense is what won us the first SB even though Eli did drive the field at the end.

Again.. this is now what BBI thinks. We are dealing with the people who actually get a vote.
Statistically speaking, Eli has been anything but sub par the majority  
GMenLTS : 12/16/2013 9:07 pm : link
of his career. Memories are short. Plenty of top 5 stats. Majority of stats fall within the top 10 range.

2005 - Tied with 3 other players with 24 TDs behind Palmer, Brady, Peyton. 5th in passing yardage. INTs are still only a minor issue given early career.

2006 - Tied with Tom Brady at 24 TDs behind Peyton, Palmer, Brees, Bulger. 11th in yardage. Again, INTs still only a minor issue.

2007 - INTs become a major problem. League starts a major jump in passing TDs. Eli only has 23 to put him at #11. 12th in yards. 20 INTs that year. Fortunately includes legendary playoff run.

2008 - First year he ever really sits back and lets the run game power through everyone. 21 TDs, good for #11. 17th in yards. Being so conservative though, career low 10 INTs. Shitty game against the eagles in the playoffs.

2009 - Passing TD explosion continues, 27 TDs, tied with Cutler at #8, 9. 10th in yardage but passes for 4000 yards.

2010 - INTs galore but also 4th in TDs with 31 behind Brady, Peyton, Brees. Another 4000 yard year, 5th in yards. The dodge'd season.

2011 - Doesn't need defending but.. Tied with Ryan for 29 TDs behind Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Romo. 4th in yards, 70 from 5000. The stuff of legends putting a team on his back. Broke a 4th quarter TD record held since Unitas. And again helped defeat the GOAT in this era in the SB.

2012 - Begins the cliff fall. Tied with 4 others at 26, behind 8 other QBs. 12th in yards, didn't hit 4000.

2013 - No description needed.

His play has been bad of late but as Phil in WNY pointed out earlier in the thread, I wouldn't bet against the guy coming back and getting that third ring and final nail in the coffin. He's proven fully capable of scoring points with the best of them and he has plenty of football in him yet.
I want to go back to that ESPN Magazine article I linked earlier.  
Britt in VA : 12/16/2013 9:16 pm : link
I want to put this here in it's entirety, because I think it's an interesting read that encapsulates this thread. I think it's got something for both sides, but ends somewhere in the middle.

Quote:
Eli: An absolute possibility

Will the keepers of Canton call Eli Manning clutch or just lucky?

This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's Dec. 24 Hall of Fame Issue. Subscribe today!

AS I WATCHED the Giants alternately rise, fall and then rise again through yet another season, I took to YouTube in a desperate search for clues about Eli Manning. Of all the quarterbacks I've gotten to know over the years, Manning may be the most interesting. While the two-time Super Bowl champion and two-time Super Bowl MVP at times seems like a lock for the Hall of Fame, his play is absurdly inconsistent, lacking the ethereal stats of other potentially Canton-bound passers -- including the one whose last name he shares.

On YouTube (after being momentarily distracted by a Springsteen clip and a thing about whales), I found a home video shot and narrated by Archie Manning. Peyton and Eli are shooting baskets in the backyard court of their New Orleans home. Eli is 7, maybe 8, and he's missing every way possible -- short, long, off the top of the rim, off the bottom, off air. Peyton rebounds and feeds his younger brother after every shot; Eli hits a few but clangs most. It's painful to watch, yet Eli never seems discouraged. He just keeps firing. Finally, Peyton grabs a ball and steps to what appears to be the farthest and toughest shot on the Manning family court, mere inches from the doorstep. He drains it. Suddenly motivated, Eli steps to his brother's spot and shoots without hesitation. Money. "Nice shot, E," Archie says.

The whole scene seems prescient yet familiar, but it doesn't begin to answer the question of whether Manning is a Hall of Famer, because that can't actually be answered yet. He is only 31 and in his ninth season, his career probably halfway done. But for a non-doper, non-cheater, non-bettor and non-head case, nobody in sports finds himself in the middle of the is-he-or-isn't-he debate more than Manning. The reasons that he and not a quarterback of similar accomplishments -- like, say, Ben Roethlisberger -- sparks such an argument are partially knee-jerk: the comparisons with Peyton, the media stature of New York. But it's mostly because the question of Manning's Canton candidacy is mainly theological, revealing much more about one's definition of a Hall of Famer than about Manning specifically. Yet because of the way he plays, this debate applies only to him: Can you be a Hall of Famer if you're a mortal quarterback during the regular season but an immortal one in the playoffs?

In February, riding the rush of Manning's second punking of the Patriots in the Super Bowl in five years, the case for his bronze bust seemed closed. "Absolutely," Phil Simms said. The New York Post opined, "He is no longer Elite Eli. He is Hall of Fame Eli." ProFootballTalk wrote that "even without another Super Bowl title, Eli will make it into the Hall of Fame." And for the first six weeks of this season, Manning seemed to validate every statement, playing at a level eclipsed only by Matt Ryan.

But in the four weeks that followed, Manning's play was at one point "foolish," as Giants head coach Tom Coughlin put it. He threw only one touchdown pass and six picks. His backers inevitably began to backtrack. Simms: "He's not one of the elites." The Newark Star-Ledger called his play "Sanchezesque." Now rounding out the season, the Giants are closing in on that low-seeded playoff spot where they'll have to win on the road to make it to the Super Bowl, where Manning's pedestrian regular-season numbers (58 percent winning percentage, 1.4:1 TD:INT ratio, 82 passer rating) give way to postseason stats (72 percent winning percentage, 2.1:1 TD:INT ratio, 89 passer rating) that all rank in the top 10 all time. And of course, no stat measures the stones required to throw deep to David Tyree after untangling oneself from the Patriots front four in Super Bowl XLII, or to drop a bomb to Mario Manningham into a hole few quarterbacks can conceive of, much less capitalize on.

But the YouTube video and the dozens of games I've seen Manning play have crystallized my pet theory on him. It's hard to define the multiple traits the 23 modern-era quarterbacks enshrined in Canton share, not to mention the four or five playing today who are certain to join them. But one thing is a constant: They never forget. Terry Bradshaw never forgot that people called him dumb. Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers never forgot their draft-day slides. Steve Young never forgot his years as a backup. John Elway and Peyton never forgot the folks who said they couldn't win the big one. Using a mix of ruthlessness, talent and audacity and a combination of both deluded and earned confidence, they used those dark memories to fuel transcendent careers.

Eli Manning, on the other hand, always forgets. He forgets bad throws, bad games -- even bad months. Perhaps he inherited this ability to let go from his mom, Olivia, who never seems fazed during her sons' games, while Archie paces and fidgets. Or perhaps, as Duke coach David Cutcliffe, who coached both Peyton and Eli in college and has become something of a career counselor for them, theorizes: "It's a coping mechanism for being in the Manning family, for having the expectations of his dad and his brothers. How can you just turn it off when you need to? There's no question that he might be the best ever at forgetting."

However it arrived, forgetting is Manning's singular genius. His regular seasons are his hits and misses; the Super Bowl is the toughest shot that he always sinks unburdened by the fear of failure, having somehow scrubbed his memory. Of course, sitting at his locker on a late November afternoon, he can't explain how he's able to forget when I ask him about it. "You know, uh, obviously, uh, you know. You, uh, learn from your mistakes. Uh, you know, learn from a bad play. Remember the good ones; everything else you forget."

This is just how his mind works. Most quarterbacks strive to think like coaches; Manning thinks like a cornerback -- finding greatness in his ability to change not only a game's momentum but his own. Though Manning knows the Giants offense as well as a coach and can audible at the line of scrimmage with the best of them, Ernie Accorsi, the GM who traded for the quarterback out of Ole Miss on draft day, was onto something in 2002 when he wrote in his scouting report, "This is a guy you should just let play."

In tight situations, Manning's ability to forget allows him to not only just play but play free of self-consciousness. As Ryan says with envy, "He has no conscience." Against the Redskins in October, Manning entered the huddle in a familiar spot: trailing 23-20 with 1:32 left, having thrown two interceptions and been outplayed by Robert Griffin III. "All we gotta do is win the game," he joked to teammates. And predictably, that's exactly all he did, loosening a 77-yard touchdown pass to Victor Cruz on the second play of the drive, the 23rd fourth-quarter comeback win of his career. "It's not something to be totally proud of -- that you can bounce back after a bad play," Manning says, laughing at himself, which he does easily and often. "You try not to have bad games or bad plays. But that's part of football, and you can't let it get you down."

Not that Manning is immune to being down. After a misfire, he'll allow himself the patented Manning head bob and shoulder tug. But he doesn't stay down -- something not only great QBs but all pro athletes struggle with, no matter how hard they try to fake it for the cameras. So when teammates ask Manning for help, what they really want to know is how to think like he does. Earlier this season, kicker Lawrence Tynes had a lousy practice. Manning has rallied from many of them. So Tynes asked him, "If you have a bad day, what do you do to combat that?"

"Well, you've got nine years of game film," Eli shrugged. So Tynes watched big kicks from throughout his career, an elementary method of positive reinforcement -- forgetting disguised as reminding -- and his confidence flooded back. As backup quarterback David Carr, a former No. 1 pick who is as gifted as Manning in every way except for his ability to flush bad plays, says, "Eli really is that simple. And he's onto something."

Manning really is a simple guy. He married his college sweetheart, the former Abby McGrew. They have a toddler daughter, Ava. He has a King Charles Cavalier named Chester, whom he trotted up and down seven flights of stairs in the dark- ness of his Hoboken apartment building during Hurricane Sandy so Chester could pee. He still wears his hair in the official style of the Ole Miss male, ungelled and blanketing his forehead. He stars in corny Toyota commercials, and yes, he drives a Toyota truck.

The rare excesses look awkward -- and Manning knows it. One day this past spring, Cooper Manning visited his youngest brother, who decided to take him for a spin in his 2012 Corvette, a spoil of being Super Bowl MVP. Eli in a penis car? "You look like an idiot," Cooper said. Eli laughed, agreed, then hit the gas. "He goes through life in a very balanced way," Cooper says -- maybe the first time that any potential Hall of Famer has ever been commended for his work/life balance. But as a kid, Eli never dreamed of quarterbacking in the NFL. He played football because it was the family business and became elite not only by wringing the most out of his gifts and working his ass off but by keeping the sport in its place. A loss on game day might ruin his night but not his life. "That's his greatest asset," Cooper says. "Just a little less pressure that he puts on himself."

But it usually doesn't come to that. Each Friday, Manning hosts a film session for his receivers to outline opponents' wrinkles in painstaking detail. Before the Giants played the Bengals in Week 10, rookie receiver Rueben Randle entered late. Eli asked why. "Had to do some extra work," Randle said. Manning may keep things simple, but he is all business. "Who's gonna throw you a touchdown -- me or the guy you're doing extra work with?" Manning said. But on game day, Manning allows his receivers to just play too. Many future Hall of Famers, such as Brady, will sometimes cut off receivers who drop balls or botch routes. But Manning always tells his wideouts, "I'm gonna come back to you." He forgets his teammates' errors like he forgets his own. "I need them to have faith in me," he says, "and I'll have faith in them."

When judging candidates, though, Hall of Fame voters want sustained greatness, not faith, not balance, not a short memory. By the time he retires, Manning could rank in the top five in yards and touchdowns, rankings that might not hold thanks to the explosion of passing stats in the NFL's aerial age. But Canton has plenty of quarterbacks -- Sonny Jurgensen, Warren Moon - -who have produced prolific numbers but lack a defining postseason moment. Manning's career is defined by postseason moments, which has made fans nearly as forgetful as he is.

After all, few remember his first three years of mediocrity, or the league-high 25 interceptions he threw in 2010, or the boneheaded flip he tossed while falling into the welcoming arms of a Bengal earlier this season. When you think of Manning, you see him ending Brett Favre's Green Bay career by firing darts through the black-ice Lambeau air, the heave to Tyree, the dime to Manningham, his redefining of not only his career but also Coughlin's. You recognize greatness not in hitting every shot, just the ones that matter most.


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At this point I'll be surprised if he gets in  
JOrthman : 12/16/2013 10:35 pm : link
He is one of the most polarizing players in the league, which is odd considering he is so vanilla in his professional and personal life.
JOrthman...  
Chris in Philly : 12/16/2013 11:24 pm : link
People don't forget the "I don't want to play in SD" bit. Even though he was right, and even though he won a couple rings largely due to his play, some people still see a whiner who will never be as good as his brother. That's the reason he's polarizing...
IIRC, it was Archie Manning who was mostly behind the SD decision,  
NyquistX3 : 12/16/2013 11:30 pm : link
right? Or am I misinformed?
Eli in HOF  
Dylan fan : 12/17/2013 12:22 am : link
IMO he wasn't remotely a lock before this season or even last. After SB46 I thought he'd need to have great years for another 75%-80% of his remaining 8-10 years (til he was 38-40) OR win a 3rd SB. If he does finish his career in the top 15 or so in TDs & yards, he's a lock considering the 2 SB MVPs. Of course nobody can even guess how well he'll do in the future, especially compared to a bunch of young guys who will likely put up sick #s until then barring injury.

As far as being the very best, Kelley & Moon got in w/out being the best compared to several of their contemporaries. Eli doesn't have to be 1 of the 5 best QBs ever a la Brady & Peyton & possibly Brees & Rodgers when all is said & done to make the HOF. Comparing Eli or his eligibility for the HOF to Montana as 1 poster did is utterly assinine. Montana had the best WR ever, a ridiculous OL, TE, RBs, defense & coaches his entire 49er career & few players changed from year to year like they do now; Montana's teams were shitloads better all around than what Eli has had.

As far as HOF QBs w/ seasons as bad as Eli:

Bradshaw:
His regular season career QBR was 70.9. He threw 212 TDs to 210 INTs w/ a 5.4 INT%. He's in the HOF solely thanx to playoffs & SBs.
1st yr: 6/24 TD/INT 30.4 QBR
2nd yr: 13/22 59.7
4th: 10/15 54.5
7th: 65.4 QBR
8th: 17/19 71.4 QBR

Favre: career 3.3 INT%
2010 11/19 69.9
2005: 20/29 70.9
1993: 19/24 72.2

Brees:
2003: 11/15 67.5

Fouts:
last 2 years:
16/22 71.4
10/15 70.9

Staubach:
1974: 11/15 68.4 & the team still went 8-6, proving (of course unfortunately) how good the rest of the team was.

Unitas:
The last 6 of his 17 years sucked royally, albeit he was injured most of them. Career 4.9 INT%
1961: 16/24 66.1
1966: 20/24 74
1969: 12/20 64 (13 games)
1970: 14/18 65.1

Eli's career INT% is 3.4, only .1 worse than Favre. Eli compared to Favre otherwise: 4.6 / 5 TD%, 58.6 / 62 comp.%, both 7.1 Y/A.

Sooo, 1 real bad season won't derail Eli's chances based on past HOF QBs. He just has some making up do do. With a better team - particularly OL & several fewer than 6 starting RBs a season - I think he'll do that.
It hurts his chances if he has a mediore year next year, or  
Great White Ghost : 12/17/2013 2:06 am : link
doesn't get better.

The fact is his career isn't over. If he sucks it up the next coupel of years, or is avg, a playoff apearance or two and does nothing with them, then I dont think he gets in.If he comes back strong and puts this behind him, I don't think it matters. As a stand alone season, yes, it hurts his chances. There is the whole " Eli is a gomer" thing, lack of passion, west coast spite at the draft day trade and how it went down.People loved to hate on Eli till they couldn't. Give them an excuse and they will.He is no lock

My personal opinion is he has another Super Bowl win in him.
Whether he lives up to it or not , I think, is what ultimately will decide if he gets in .I don't see the inconsistency ever really changing. He will continue to have up and down years.One more Super bowl and they can't keep him out.In the end it comes down to does he still have that fire in his balls,that "screw you" attitude we know he has, but only lets show with his play on the field.
This post by Jerry in DC sums it up for me at this point.  
BlueLou : 12/17/2013 5:02 am : link
Quote:
His HoF chances
Jerry in DC : 12/16/2013 7:34 pm : link : reply
in the real world were never anywhere close to where they were on BBI. BBI is really like some kind of alternate universe when it comes to Eli Manning.

When everyone else sees a pass sail yards past a wide open Hakeem Nicks in the end zone against Minneota or way over Brandon Meyers head in Chicago, this is the only place where the receivers get blamed with profanity-laced tirades. Most people watching those games just think it was a bad pass. Nobody else breaks down his interceptions frame by frame like the Zapruder film to see if there's a shred of evidence that the "blame" for the interception can be offloaded onto another Giants player or coach. They just say it was an interception.

Nobody mentions Eli Manning with the elite QBs in the NFL, except people on BBI. Nobody says that he'd be just like Aaron Rodgers if only he played in a different system. Charitable onlookers might view him as a fringe top 10 QB in some seasons. People who are really paying attention would give him a lot of credit for his performance in 2011. But people who look at his career as a whole would see a QB who played a lot of games, threw a lot of passes, accumulated a lot of career stats, and performed at an OK level for most of his career. A guy who may have been at near the top of his position for 1 year and was otherwise a cut or two below (or much farther below at times such as this year). On BBI, people stopped using stats to evaluate QBs in 2004. This practice was not adopted outside of BBI. People still use stats.

There are some people, both on BBI and in the real world, who assign QBs large amounts of credit and blame for the accomplishments and failures of the team. Among those people Eli might be a borderline HoF candidate. For those that look at the entire body of work, it's very difficult to see how Eli (or Roethlisberger for that matter) would get anywhere near the HoF considering that they were rarely, if ever, in the top 20% of players at their position during their careers.


And everybody defending Eli's chance at the HOF right now are pissing into the wind. Obviously that can change, one thing Eli has shown, like Favre, is tremendous durability. That's very rare.
The problem with Jerry's post...  
Britt in VA : 12/17/2013 7:27 am : link
is that as much as he's trying to make it sound objective, it's not.

The discussion on whether Eli belongs in the HOF isn't BBI fiction, as much as Jerry tries to paint it that way.

The fact of the matter is, the conversation has happened outside of Giants fans and BBI. Look no further than the articles I posted above. And there are plenty more.

The fact that they are even having the discussion about Eli at the midway point of his career says something. He's likely got another five years to go, as well.

He may not be in right now, but to act like this is some Giants fan, made up fantasy... Well, that's the stance that's not rooted in reality. Eli is definately in the conversation.
I think Ben is definitely in.  
BrettNYG10 : 12/17/2013 7:43 am : link
I think Eli is on the outside looking in if he were to retire today.

And Eli's stats haven't been 'sub par'. EricJ continues his streak of idiocy.
Completly agree  
JOrthman : 12/17/2013 8:15 am : link
I still here people bring that up, nine years after the fact.
Whoever the heck  
fkap : 12/17/2013 8:37 am : link
said Eli was not a good QB by today's standards has it wrong. He is most definitely a good QB. The question, which is debatable, is whether he's a great QB.

People want to point out the 2 rings as proof of greatness. What about the approximately 50% making the playoffs? Is that what great QB's do? only make the playoffs half the time? 4 out of 5 non playoffs recently. During those 2 runs, Eli was not the defining player on the team. It was a team effort. He was a big part of those teams, but he wasn't supremely outstanding. Same thing with his 2 SB MVP's. Team effort, but you gotta give the title to someone, so...

Has he ever sniffed a seasonal MVP? He's always been a dark horse candidate, and nothing more.

So, is being an overall good QB enough to get into the hall?

People are right when they say voting is somewhat sentimental. Eli comes out on the losing end here. He's a Manning. Hooray, that improved his draft status. After that, though, he's been playing in the shadow of big brother. Bro beats him every time head to head. beats him in stats, beats him in personality, beats him in everything but the ring department. Ask anyone who they'd rather have as a QB from start to finish, and the overwhelming vast majority would say Peyton. That shouldn't take away HOF votes from Eli. They're two different players. But Eli will forever be in the shadow, and that will take away votes.
RE: I think Ben is definitely in.  
vibe4giants : 12/17/2013 9:11 am : link
In comment 11400834 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
I think Eli is on the outside looking in if he were to retire today.

And Eli's stats haven't been 'sub par'. EricJ continues his streak of idiocy.


But if we're talking about consistency, you have to admit Eric is a lock for the IHoF.
He won't walk in the front door  
WideRight : 12/17/2013 9:29 am : link
There is too much competition, and voters have to choose the best players from a group. Eli won't compare favorably.

Could get in on the veterans ticket, because thats where his 2SB MVPs will be respected
RE: He should try throwing the ball with his eyes open  
culloden1745 : 12/18/2013 7:20 am : link
In comment 11398978 BeerFridge said:
Quote:




lol...the ball is clearly out of his hands by 5 feet
eli  
culloden1745 : 12/18/2013 7:23 am : link
ultimately it may come down to longevity ....2 s/b mvps, and wins
a good win ratio. multiple 4th quarter comebacks
several bad years and lead in interceptions...but doesnt favre hold the record for ints?
...  
SanFranGiantsFan : 12/22/2013 7:44 am : link
I have no idea if Eli will make it or not when he hangs up the cleats; he turns 33 next month. My guess is he plays another 5-6 years. If he returns to the '08/'09/'11/hell even the '12 Eli for the remainder of his career, he'll have a good shot.

But this entire argument is moot if he wins one more title. No way he doesn't get in with 3 rings.
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