...that the defending Super Bowl Champion has failed to win one playoff game the following season.
The 2005 Patriots were the last defending champ to win a playoff game (they beat the Jags and then lost in the Divisional rd)
I don't feel like going through it all now but I wonder how often this has been the case throughout history.
Here are the last 8 teams:
2013 Ravens - Missed playoffs
2012 Giants - Missed playoffs
2011 Packers - Lost Divisional Rd. to NYG (had 1st rd bye)
2010 Saints - Lost WC to SEA
2009 Steelers - Missed playoffs
2008 Giants - Lost Divisional rd. to PHI (1st rd bye)
2007 Colts - Lost Divisional rd. to SD (1st rd bye)
2006 Steelers - Missed playoffs
2001 Patriots didn't make the playoffs
2000 Ravens did not make the playoffs
1999 Rams made the playoffs the next year but did not win (lost to the Saints this was when Warner was injured)
1998 Denver Broncos did not make playoffs the next year - Elway retired
obviously Denver repeated after winning in 97
They certainly will be back in the playoffs (barring injury decimation) next year. Maybe not the #1 seed again, but they are a very deep team with not many veteran, high priced free agents
1) Complacency among the young. They, unlike longer term vets, find it hard to believe that this won't occur, again and again. The edge can become compromised
2) Old and young have reached the pinnacle and want to get paid for it(understood) whether their contract is up, almost up or will be up down the road
3) FA
4) The young, key positions will have to be paid(Wilson) and paid a lot, sooner rather then later. Cap room can become greatly Squeezed and cuts(not necessarily wholesale) will have to be made
5) Key injuries along with the usual that may or may not affect one or more positions talent and depth-wise
6) Banquet circuits, demands on one's time, focus compromised, sometimes, perhaps oft times extending into the season(not referencing banquets here)
7) Fill in the blank(s)
Every team goes through much of what I've stated, but not to the extent, generally speaking, that the reigning champion seems to go through every year
Fast forward to the final week of the season when his team had the chance to make it into the playoffs with a win when the Dolphins lost their game. He backpedalled like a motherf'er talking about how they lost a lot of players because of their success and blah blah blah. Yeah, he hasn't spoken about the Ravens since.
But I'm sure most of us thought the same about the 2011 Packers who were 15-1 until some team in blue waltzed on into Lambeau and ended their season.
It's not even like teams just have down years after winning Super Bowls. The 2008 Giants, the 2011 Packers, the 2007 Colts.. all excellent regular season teams who earned bye weeks but then promptly layed an egg in the divisional round.
8 8th season that the cowboys were the contender?
that the eagles were breaking out?
It wouldn't surprise me at all, if Seattle doesn't win a playoff game next year....they are a good team, not a great one....
It wouldn't surprise me at all, if Seattle doesn't win a playoff game next year....they are a good team, not a great one....
And the Giants ONLY GOT THERE in 2011 because Romo overthrew Austin.
Who cares?
I think this was a big win for defense in the NFL. You can still beat the best offense with a damn good defense, and as much as I can't stand Seattle, that is a great feeling. I don't hope they repeat because I think they are an arrogant bunch of a holes, but I'd love to see teams headed in that great defensive direction.
Based on how the playoff format is, it is likely the 49ers play the Seahawks next year whether it is in Seattle or in San Francisco as early as the 2nd round of the playoffs.
Those two are about as evenly matched as you can get when you look back now.
Would it really be that crazy if they played each other again and SF came out on top? Not really.
I think the difference between those two teams is very small. But that could change going into next year. We'll see.
As BB'56 noted, a young team sometimes works against them as you have to wonder if they will have the hunger and edge needed to win it again. These guys are going to be partying it up and enjoying their title, as they should and deserve to. However, the famed "Super Bowl hangover" tends to hit teams when they are forced to dig deep and get ready to fight out of tough situations. In most cases they came out of despiration. At some point, the team will hit the wall physically and emotionally, and look down and see that ring on their finger, it's just human nature to take a breath and not fight as hard. I absolutely happened to the Giants in 2012, particularly after Sandy hit and they had that stretch in Atlanta and Baltimore.
But for me, the ticking time bomb is Marshawn Lynch. He makes that offense go, period. Lynch will be 28 years old next year, and he's had back to back 300+ carry seasons (and 285 carries the year before that). He's a physical runner who looks for contact. Those backs tend to fall off a cliff quickly, and usually are done by age 30. Lynch's body will break down at some point, it happens to almost all backs, but particularly the battering ram types. An injured/less productive Lynch will start to expose more of Wilson's weaknesses.
Lastly, they happen to play in the best division in the NFL. The second best team in the NFL last year was the 49ers. The Cardinals won 11 games. And the Rams are no slouch and have the Redskins top pick. The Seahawks very well could end up 3-3 in their division alone next year. And every team will have a bullseye on them.
Which is why if I'm the Seattle GM I'm thinking about who my next QB is. Time to change the model and start treating QBs like every other position.
1. Offensive football (particularly passing) is the trend due to rules changes, coaching styles, etc.
2. College QBs are entering the NFL more prepared for the pro game than ever before. If anything, we're seeing pro offenses trend towards the college style, possibly in an effort to smooth the transition for the QBs.
Russell Wilson just won the Super Bowl in his second year. He beat a third year QB in the NFCC (who himself almost won the SB in his second year). Nick Roles had a phenomenal year. Andrew Luck has made two playoff visits in two years with a lousy team. Carolina had a big year with Newton. The Bengals keep making the playoffs with Dalton. Tannehill, Pryor, Glennon...all showed some promise. Don't forget what the Redskins did in 2012 with a rookie QB.
All the guys I mentioned there are in their first contract. Sure Peyton, Rodgers, Brady...their teams are successful too, but I think we are in an era where their teams aren't appreciably more successful than those with young QBs.
It may be the easiest and most advantageous time ever not to have your eggs in one basket.
That's not quite right. I'm a proponent in paying for quality, but when it comes to the QB position I think we may be entering a time when it could be viewed as more fungible than ever. The slant towards offensive football combined with the outrageous costs of the top QBs would make it so, I think, from a perspective of pure economic efficiency.
And beyond that, it's only a small part of the equation. The Seahawks had to find numerous diamonds in the rough and draft well in order to have a team with so many impact players making less than 1M.
I think the key is to keep pipe lining young, cost controlled talent through as many of the other positions as possible. I would still invest in the QB if you feel like you've got the right guy.
BB56...I'm never going to be objective about Eli on that front. My hope is that he is the QB for a long time because I want to see him join Aikman or even Montana as a champion.
But after he goes, I hope the Giants take a different view of the QB position because I think that is the future.
But we're now on the second straight QB to win a SB in his rookie contract. And I'd argue that these Seahawks are the best team to win the Super Bowl in quite a few years...probably since the Pats had Brady in his rookie deal.
Quote:
I recall you being a big proponent of investing heavily in a QB and willing to pay a premium. Is your recent comment a change in thinking or just Seattle-specific?
That's not quite right. I'm a proponent in paying for quality, but when it comes to the QB position I think we may be entering a time when it could be viewed as more fungible than ever. The slant towards offensive football combined with the outrageous costs of the top QBs would make it so, I think, from a perspective of pure economic efficiency.
Thanks. I've harbored similar thoughts recently as well.
James Jones
RIley Cooper
Danario Alexander
McCluster
Pitta
Finley
Pettigrew
Graham
Chandler
There are others I did not list because they will likely be signed by their teams, and some of theses guys will be resigned as well. Also, the price they might get any of these guys also has to be right. I would say they would have to be had at a value, I don't think any of these guys are must have FAs who will be the missing piece that will put the Giants over the top, they aren't really close IMO. They need to build through the draft, but they have so many holes they will need to fill that they will have to be smart in free agency. I don't think the Giants have any FAs that they must sign, meaning they need to outbid anyone for their return.
This really has very little to do with why Seattle won the Super Bowl, though. Any of the good pocket passers in this league could have won with Seattle's defense and Marshawn Lynch this year. The Seahawks didn't win the Super Bowl because Russell Wilson is a mobile QB.