NFT: Weatherman, I have to bother you on this one......

that is what I actually looked like in that 3 foot storm we had last winter. I loved it!!

Seem to be pointing to 8-12 with a Wed/Thur timeframe. If the models hold tomorrow, you'll see the media pick up on it quickly.

but the guy jumped on me and told me to keep up with the conversation when he clearly posted a map which showed 8-12 for Long Island. But like I said, I hear this guy is an idiot to a lot of people who post on his map posts.

Why do you like snow so much? I never asked and always was curious. I don't mind it but I always seems to tire of it about this time.

if it's the same irresponsible tit that was behind the last early rumor idiot fest you'd best unfollow him.

Right now the best I can responsibly give you is that a coastal low will be in the area - but the ensemble solutions range from big snow to mix/rain on the coast coming too near to shore all the way to Norwood track.

the only thing I can think of is I was born during a blizzard. I don't know if that had anything to do with it. But, if you are looking for signs that cause you to like something, my mother painted her kitchen green when she was pregnant with my younger brother and he became a Jets fan.

I don't care to even check if he's accurate; he's an asshole.

thank you very much. And I believe it is the same idiot.

How anyone follows that insecure crybaby boggles my mind

Wuphat?

that keeps relaying his statuses.

I should probably block that friend.

I just recently started following him and was unaware what a tool he is. Now I have to follow him just to be annoying. I am going to make comments now that I know will piss him off.

isn't WXRisk the one who had Sandy going up Chesapeake Bay? Classic control run wiggle watching can't see the forest for the trees type that couldn't forecast their own way out of a paper bag.

now that you warned me about this guy, it makes me want to see what things he says about this storm. He said he is putting out his first guess on storm totals in about an hour and a half. How do you put out predictions on a storm that is still 3-4 days away?

He'll hit once in a while (like the blind squirrel that occasionally finds a nut), but forecasts of this type at this timeframe are woefully low confidence to those willing to acknowledge the limitations of the present state of the science.

of percentages - it's not a total forecast, it's all probability. The WPC scheme is a map for 4", 8", and 12" - and on each the contours are 10% chance, 40% chance, 70% chance. Outside of mountain accumulations (much more predictable), is exceedingly rare to see that 70% contour show up in the Day 3 12" map, and when it does appear it's a result of a tremendously well forecast high impact event. You can go an entire winter without having one of those on the east coast.

Great explanations! I'm not going to lie, I am seriously hoping we get a foot of snow but I also know it is way too early to know what is going to actually happen. I'll enjoy the possibility and all the media outlets that will probably start talking about it tomorrow just in case it turns out to be a miss.

Paul Kocin, one of if not the preeminent mind in the entire field when it comes to forecasting snow, is one of the mets that makes the forecast products that appear there.
link - ( New Window )

Calls for a fairly significant event Wednesday night......here.......................
Link - ( New Window )

night? I have an event that ends around 9:00pm

I don't think we're supposed to get the heavier precip till after then.

with snow all day Thursday so I can work from home. This wee is going to be nuts so I'll take a work from home day if I can get it.

.

and he's not a douchebag
Link - ( New Window )

a ton of shit to do...


rain rain rain!!!

the second you see an inch or two of snow on the ground at this point?

I can't lie... reading Tom wanting a foot of snow makes me want to do this to Tom (no offense Tom)

Monday is a holiday, if we get slammed with snow, there's potential for a 5 day weekend.

all about the snow, but having shoveled this morning for the dozenth fucking time this season, i've had about enough.

how weatherman has explained to Tom a hundred times that the forecasts are unreliable from more than three days out, yet everytime there is a hint of a snow chance a week out, we get one of these threads.

In comment 11501329 Pork and Beans said:

Quote:

how weatherman has explained to Tom a hundred times that the forecasts are unreliable from more than three days out, yet everytime there is a hint of a snow chance a week out, we get one of these threads.

This.

In comment 11501329 Pork and Beans said:

Quote:

how weatherman has explained to Tom a hundred times that the forecasts are unreliable from more than three days out, yet everytime there is a hint of a snow chance a week out, we get one of these threads.

poor guy. did someone kidnap you, click on this thread and clamp your eyes open, Clockwork Orange-style, and force you to read it?

don't worry, the rescue party is on the way (though they may be slowed by the damn snow).

its supposed to stay Wednesday night. I'd love that, but that's extreme wishful thinking.

It's already happened once this season for me.

No, you're not the only one. Winter blows.

I'm supposed to travel to Boston for a visible project launch on Thursday, #$*@&$*#$.

You should write for Woody Allen, your jokes are about as funny.

But to answer your critique, no one forces me to look at any post, as you know. However, I appreciate the weather updates that weatherman gives on this site, as do others. I am sure he gets aggravated having to give the same disclaimer on every imagined storm a week out, and that probably makes him less inclined to come give the updates on the real storms many of us like.

doesn't seem too bothered by these threads but I'm sure he would speak up or just not respond if they did annoy him.

this storm isn't a week out. As of today, it is 2-3 days out.

someone funnier enough to write for Woody Allen is a major compliment... we all realize this right?

In comment 11500977 jlukes said:

Quote:

How anyone follows that insecure crybaby boggles my mind

He really is an incredibly thin-skinned dbag. I have historically avoided commenting on his shit, but last year after he told a commentator he hoped her daughter would get raped (one of the few insults he thought better of and took down), I knew if I kept looking at his page eventually I wouldn't resist. He had another one of his mangled, borderline unreadable posts, riddled with typos, but ended with 'I only watn (sic) to be CORRECT!'.

After I commented, 'Oh, the ironies', I got a PM from him that began DEAR FUCK FACE... and ended with him calling me 'college punk as turd', which I thought really flattered my profile pic. And revealed a host of his other insecurities.

Anyway, he's generating hype right now for what he says could be 20 inches in RVA. Of course, as a few have noted he's saying this is 'what the model shows' not his 'forecast.' So he gets to have it both ways.

I hate myself every time I check his page.

.

I know I ask you this a lot, but can you comment on a forecast that is longer than 3 days out even though you've told me a bunch of times that you can't because it wouldn't be reliable? Thanks!

Tom, have you sent WM a bottle of his favorite scotch yet?

what I asked him about is 3 days out but thanks for caring.

you might think about changing your handle to that. You would stand out

I click his facebook page just to see pictures of the models and then his overreactions to commenters

You posted this yesterday for a possible Thursday occurrence so hang tight--let me check the math:

Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday

= 3! I stand corrected!

What about the scotch?

for what was being discussed as starting on Wednesday Night. From Sunday Night you count:

1 Monday Night
2 Tuesday Night
3 Wednesday Night

So this is the infamous 3" or 30" storm.. what'll it be?

In comment 11500983 WeatherMan said:

Quote:

isn't WXRisk the one who had Sandy going up Chesapeake Bay? Classic control run wiggle watching can't see the forest for the trees type that couldn't forecast their own way out of a paper bag.

I don't know about ya'll, but I love me some forecasting trash talk.

That's not to say WM is the Richard Sherman of meteorology, but I'd love it if he was.

has become embarrassing.

I don't even know if he drinks Scotch

(looking at you, Joey) hung up on snowfall. Having a couple properties and kids to get off to school makes me long for Spring, thank you very much!

Send ME the scotch, I'll send him something he likes (pina coladas--don't say anything--we don't have any openly gay BBIers yet)

In comment 11501843 Randy in CT said:

Quote:

Send ME the scotch, I'll send him something he likes (pina coladas--don't say anything--we don't have any openly gay BBIers yet)

I didn't think Brett was ever a secret.

Im the best weather guy in the world. All them models dont have shit on me... Al roker and Sam Champion cant cover my logic... dont you ever talk about me ... LOM- Legion of Meterologists!

Andrews: "Who was talking about you?"

WeatherMan: "CHAMPION!!!! Don't you open your mouth about the best otherwise Ima shut it for you real quick!"

In comment 11501413 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

someone funnier enough to write for Woody Allen is a major compliment... we all realize this right?

LOL.

I read that Winter Storm Watches may be issued soon for NYC/Long Island.

Seems a bit early to do that but I'm sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for it!!

You will have your time soon enough Randy. Sunset is getting later, clocks go ahead in less than three weeks, and it will get warmer soon. Then I'll be stuck inside for 5 months in the air conditioner and I'll be the miserable one.

reverse cabin fever

late spring, summer, early fall are bad times for me. Going outside causes me to get sick unless I have cold water pouring on me. The higher angle sun does very bad things to me.

Winter Storm Watches aren't being issued yet. If they need to be, I'm sure it won't be until sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening. The guy issues his own warning to his friends on facebook, he calls it a crockpot watch. I asked him what it meant and he said it is a Winter Storm Watch to his friends. I thought he knew the NWS was issuing one. But not yet.

a polar bear in the zoo?

about right

I only go Richard Sherman on folks who steal my scotch, somebody tell Bigfoot in CT to look out! *grin*

For the forecast, it's still very much in flux. An ensemble product to demonstrate said variability:

Shading is liquid equivalent precip, black bold contours are pressure, lighter contours (colorized every 10 and dashed when negative) are 850 mb temps. You can consider the tan line (0 deg at 850) as a rough rain/snow boundary, there's more to it than that but it's a decent approximation. Each of the results are for 7 pm on Thursday (00Z Fri). While the Norwood track is slowly decreasing in likelihood it still can't be ruled out, and there's still a good chance that the near coastal regions could be too warm, getting a soaking instead of a snowstorm. The forecaster posted by yankees78 earlier this morning looks quite in line with my thinking on this one.

he diiint??

of Bastardi's comments made in the link below?

[urlhttp://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-february-8-2014[/url]

Was there a dustup in the meteo community about recent NWS calls?

I can tell you one thing: where we live in SE NYS (55 miles outside NYC and in the
northern most of the two triangular notches into CT from NYS)--NWS was forecasting 3 - 5 and we got ~9".

Hope all good with you and the thesis.

in SE PA!

WOW

Word.

there's too much divergence in the models still to make a call with much confidence at this point for this area. I can respect that.

or bust...here's the latest for DC: "NWS forecasts 3" at low end (10th percentile) to nearly 20" (90th percentile) at high end. Mid-range 6-8" for DC."

the track is very key. A difference of just 20-50 miles can change an areas forecast. It is extremely difficult to predict a track that is exact still this far out. What is known is that something will be happening. What happens where is the key. The snow/sleet/rain line will probably be moving east to west to east throughout the storm.

My unprofessional guess is that eastern parts of Long Island, the twin forks and east of Riverhead will be seeing a lot of mixing and maybe even a change over to rain for a while. West of that will probably see a mix of sleet and freezing rain with possibly a breif period of rain then back to snow. Further west of that into Nassau County would see the least mixing but still probably see some.

Still way early. Winter Storm Watches haven't even been posted yet which is a bit surprising considering they have been up for central and southern NJ since yesterday afternoon.

This is going to be a wait and see storm.

Of course, that is why I asked Weatherman because mine is strictly an unprofessional hobbyist opinion. His view of the storm is what matters.

So basically, you just typed about 5 paragraphs worth of jargon to tell us.. nothing.

Thanks!

I don't give a shit if it's not accurate, at this point I just want to read something that reassures me I'm not going to live out the rest of my life in a frozen hellhole.

Quote:

What is known is that something will be happening.

groundbreaking stuff there, Tom.

Hot, chance of thunder storms

on the latest runs. That would mean more snow if it holds.

And if you guys don't want to read what I post, don't open the thread.

There is no way to be sure of what is going to happen. I post the updates I see. And they will probably change again and again and again.

Well, I think some of us are curious about the potential snow fall.. so people are going to open the thread.

I think it would probably just be a better idea to leave the actual predictions to WM.

You should move to Alaska, Tom.

I can't understand why anyone who isn't a kid in school would want more snow. My street is almost narrowed to a one way...there is no where to put the snow anymore. My back is fucking killing me from shoveling snow that feels like a bucket of water per shovel.

Winter can kiss my ass. I'm hoping for rain and 60 degrees.

I freely admit I do this as a hobby because I enjoy it. I don't have access to the equipment Weatherman has or his schooling for it or his experience. I do it for fun to see how close I can come.

I value Weatherman's opinion just like everyone else here does. But I also know he is very busy and can't post often at times like this.

In comment 11502958 Kevin in Annapolis said:

Quote:

Hot, chance of thunder storms

God damnit Kevin, if I'm dreaming about breaking out of the frozen tundra here five months out, at least give me good enough weather to take the boat out, OK? Provided the god damn thing survives the winter in the first place.

9 hours watching the Mets 8th and 9th starters getting bombed by the Braves in a DH sounds perfect right about now.

Got to keep my dreams semi-real.

In comment 11503153 jcn56 said:

Quote:

In comment 11502958 Kevin in Annapolis said: Quote: Hot, chance of thunder storms God damnit Kevin, if I'm dreaming about breaking out of the frozen tundra here five months out, at least give me good enough weather to take the boat out, OK? Provided the god damn thing survives the winter in the first place.

78 and sunny. It's going to be a beautiful day to be out on Jamaica Bay :)

Precipitation in any form can shove it.

In comment 11503161 jpkmets said:

Quote:

9 hours watching the Mets 8th and 9th starters getting bombed by the Braves in a DH sounds perfect right about now. Got to keep my dreams semi-real.

Hey, man.. don't get too down.. we can still enjoy the Harvey days..

Well.. in 2015. :(

posting what you want Tom. Its a weather thread and you just brought me up to speed.

Quote:

I can't understand why anyone who isn't a kid in school would want more snow.

This. This. And then more of this.

It's kind of strange that a grown man wants to be buried in snow as frequently as possible. All it does is disrupt things in your life and burden you with more responsibility. To each his own, but large amounts of snow have no redeeming qualities when you're trying to manage a living.

In comment 11503227 Fish said:

Quote:

posting what you want Tom. Its a weather thread and you just brought me up to speed.

Hey fuckstick, do you also need someone to tell you that the sun is going to set later on today?

could you link the forecast models that you use?

I have off when it snows. I know a lot of people don't and I do feel bad for that and hope they are safe.

And, I love shoveling snow.

Snowstorms don't impact my life negatively at all. I enjoy them. I know a lot of people don't feel like that but I am one that does.

In comment 11503230 Exit 172 said:

Quote:

Quote: I can't understand why anyone who isn't a kid in school would want more snow. This. This. And then more of this. It's kind of strange that a grown man wants to be buried in snow as frequently as possible. All it does is disrupt things in your life and burden you with more responsibility. To each his own, but large amounts of snow have no redeeming qualities when you're trying to manage a living.

well there is getting off from work. Other than that, yeah, nothing.

when I get off of work. Have lunch/gym duty. Life of a Principal in a private school.

enjoy shoveling snow as well. it's a good workout and i like being outside in the cold weather.

this season, however, has eroded my enjoyment of shoveling a bit.

I love snow. Always have.

I'm not a fan of summer, and generally prefer fall, but I'll take 18" of snow over 95 degrees w/ 90% humidity any day.

I actually enjoy shoveling, and love driving in it.

I don't even really mind the snow much outside of the typical inconveniences.. but how in the fuck do you guys ENJOY shoveling snow?

Do you bring shovels to the beach when it's warm and shovel sand?

Shoveling is the one part of snow that annoys me. The rest I can deal with.

Yes.

That is, when I'm forced to go to the beach.

be like the one Ricky Roma describes. "I heard it was so hot today that grown men were going to police officers and begging them to shoot them."

Gimme 115 degrees and 150 percent humidity to counteract this.

Ha! Well played.

When's the last time you hung around Midtown admiring the talent when the weather was colder than 60 degrees? Bring on miniskirt weather already damnit!

Do you enjoy being out in the summer working on your yard?

why bother shoveling on Friday, just wait till Monday

I'm beating it with a hammer to get rid of it before the new snow comes. this sucks

the latest Euro model moves it further west bringing in warmer air to Long Island keeping snow totals around the 4-8 inch range with a changeover. More snow to the western part and less eastern.

This will most likely change again but that is the latest Euro model.

I like to be on my patio deck, grilling on my Weber, drinking a beer, with the sun still out at 7pm, and the sounds of a baseball game on TV coming through the open window.

You can't really do that when your deck and grill have been covered in white concrete for weeks, with a 5-degree wind ripping through the darkness, and when you haven't been able to open the windows in your house for the last two months.

It sucks. There's a reason vacation resorts are built in the Caribbean and Hawaii, and not in Antarctica.

In comment 11503514 Tom [Giants fan] said:

Quote:

Do you enjoy being out in the summer working on your yard?

I can think of a billion things I'd rather be doing than working on my yard.

Suck it bitch

getting excited when a tornado is coming.

You should know first hand as a principal how miserable these bad winters are for parents who have to take off work every time it snows. Small business owners get fucked every time it snows. We all get that you like it when it snows, but your exuberance in the face of everyone else's misery is tired.

don't be a wiggle watcher.

the Euro has been very consistant with it west track of this storm. with the GFS and NAM further east. Don't jump from model to model...you'll drive yourself crazy. None of them are going to be 100% correct with the rain/snow line.

the dude likes snow. Get over it. He said he feels bad for those effected negatively, but he enjoys snow. To each their own.

Me, I an deal with 1 snow storm a year, whether it's 6 inches or 3 feet, as long as it's all gone within 3 days. This winter has been a disaster for me. I don't really mind shoveling, even though my driveway is freaking huge, but it's such a burdon to drive, work, live.

I'm looking forward to May when the sun is out, the humidity isn't terrible and softball season is under way!

whine and moan when I am house ridden for the summer or have to be covered with hats, sunglasses, wet towels to be outside.

You're house ridden when it gets hot out?

Wut.

and I won't consider it anyone throwing it in my face if you are enjoying the summer while I am not. I know a lot of you are looking forward to the hot weather after this winter. And you deserve it.

Go winter. Summer sucks.

I'm off the whole summer and still prefer winter.

I don't understand why you're house ridden in the summer.. is it for a medical reason or you just can't deal with heat?

and the heat of summer sucks. They both suck. Equally. If it was up to me, it would be October all year. Anyone who loves bitter cold and piles of snow or blazing heat and sweat pouring off your head deserves a punch in the dick!

is February- August

since he wont bring it up, he has MS. So if the man has a window during the year when he can go outside,give that to him. He will be indoors while you will be enjoying summer

sneaking in the humble brag. Nailed it!

Quote:

even though my driveway is freaking huge

In comment 11503615 Headhunter said:

Quote:

since he wont bring it up, he has MS. So if the man has a window during the year when he can go outside,give that to him. He will be indoors while you will be enjoying summer

Wasn't aware.. my apologies.

In comment 11503609 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

I don't understand why you're house ridden in the summer.. is it for a medical reason or you just can't deal with heat?

i don't have any medical issues and i fucking hate summer. if it's hotter than 75 degrees and humid, i want to go on a murderous rampage and then jump off a bridge.

thankfully given the advent and ubiquity of air conditioning, i can (barely) survive without losing my mind.

and ironically enough, i have dark skin and tan pretty well. i just hate the heat with the fire of 1,000 suns.

much closer to a consensus in the ensembles now, southeast New England and Long Island will go snow-rain-snow, limiting totals, with extensive periods of mixing further inland too, but where it stays all snow there will be a band of 12"+ accumulations. Western MA, maybe northern Litchfield Co. CT, a bit of NH off the coast and a good portion of inland ME look to be the hardest hit.

7:30 AM on Friday.

What is the current estimate for the storm to leave the NYC area?

fricken

believable

but there is a strong chance of that flight being impacted, as it will go back to snow and have issues with things freezing up at the end.

In comment 11503617 Chris in Philly said:

Quote:

sneaking in the humble brag. Nailed it! Quote: even though my driveway is freaking huge

If only I lived in my driveway!

Any consensus there?

On Thursday afternoon into JFK. So I take it that they will be screwed?

There is no way they can catch an earlier flight as they will be coming off a cruise ship that morning.

Sorry for being a dick to you, bro.

any info on phila/bucks country would be great

and the evolution of the low don't fit right for double digits there. Will actually be a bigger event in western NC and VA than in NJ. Below is an example of a GFS ensemble product from today, for the same exact forecast time as my 2:55 from yesterday.

any chance you can possibly explain that mess? I did not go to weather school, so I have no idea what I am looking at. So central NJ isn't getting a lot of snow?

there will be a window of rain that they could get in, but I doubt there will be much flight activity during it.

Philadelphia is going to be similar to NJ, not a huge storm but being a little further inland they could get close to 8" totals on the high end, I'd say 6" would be more likely.

Shading is liquid equivalent precip, black bold contours are pressure, lighter contours (colorized every 10 and dashed when negative) are 850 mb temps. You can consider the tan line (0 deg at 850) as a rough rain/snow boundary, there's more to it than that but it's a decent approximation. Each of the results are for 7 pm on Thursday (00Z Fri). Compare that image to the one I posted earlier in the thread and it will demonstrate the degree of uncertainty yesterday and how much more confident the forecast is today - when the panels are vastly different confidence is low, but the degree to which they differ still provides useful information assuming the model has skill. When the solutions come together confidence is much higher a the range of likely scenarios can be determined with greater accuracy.

and thanks Weatherman.

This may workout to give me snow days Thursday and Friday.

And shoveling twice!! LOL

is that why there are not Winter Storm Watches up for Long Island or do you see them going up?

Central VA looking at 8-12"?

DC/Baltimore area? Im trying to read the image but im with Kmed in my lack of knowledge.

latest map:

Link - ( New Window )

whether to go with the watch or the lesser class, a Winter Weather Advisory. On pure snowfall accumulations for your area this is an advisory level storm, but the amount of icing can also trigger an upgrade to watch/warning level. The specific criteria for winter related watch/warning products is linked below.

Dunedin - yep, that looks to be right on point, lesser near the coast.
link - ( New Window )

while they will see some changeover, it won't be for anywhere near as long as say, NJ. A slight shift in the track could easily turn the forecast there from 8-10 to 14+ should they not change over at all. And some areas in VA, especially higher terrain, will go easily over a foot.

...

I've actually got a graduation on Thursday, it seems like it'll happen regardless.

(Dutchess and Ulster County NY area) in terms of accumulation? Doesn't look like it will get warm enough to change over to rain there.

that area has a shot of being in the end of the band of high totals I mentioned earlier, but the lower Hudson valley in general see 4-8" at this point IMO with a chance of touching 10" with ideal banding. Would need a more western track to get a longer period of accumulation there, but that in turn would also bring warmer temps into play.

and Putnam along with the Hudson Valley I would appreciate it. WM, as always, thanks so much for sharing your expertise with us!

Thanks!!

will this be the powdery fluffy snow or the heavy wet stuff? Thank you in advance

Around scranton looking at and how about philly?

How much snow will I get on Summit Avenue in Hackensack, NJ?

it'll start as snow, but be a mess by the end of the day on Thursday. End totals 4-8" but sloppy, not a fun spot to be in. This isn't going to be fluffy snow coming down there, the areas that turn to mix will get wet and heavy snow first before that happens.

but the ratios aren't right for obscene snow totals. NEPA isn't in the max zone because of the physical size of the system, by the time it gets really cranking it's pulling away. 3-6", with a track shift 8" would be the high end of the scale there, but no mixing so easier to deal with.

what kind of totals and character of snow do you see for coastal CT in Fairfield County?

please tell me it's not the frozen cement type stuff that i shoveled last week...

Winter Storm Watch in effect for Long Island.

.

In comment 11503843 Tom [Giants fan] said:

Quote:

Winter Storm Watch in effect for Long Island.

Dude we're going to get some kind of winter weather so that was inevitable.

that's right in the changeover zone, up to 8" but I'd go less than that. And by the end of Thursday it will be wet and awful, then as it pulls away everything freezes back up with a little snow at the end to top it off.

Local NWS branches are starting to put out accumulation maps. Boston is being... aggressive. Albany not up yet. Links to follow:

Philadelphia link
Long Island link
Binghamton link
Albany link

Boston - ( New Window )

(kill me now)

In comment 11503863 WeatherMan said:

Quote:

that's right in the changeover zone, up to 8" but I'd go less than that. And by the end of Thursday it will be wet and awful, then as it pulls away everything freezes back up with a little snow at the end to top it off. Local NWS branches are starting to put out accumulation maps. Boston is being... aggressive. Albany not up yet. Links to follow: Philadelphia link Long Island link Binghamton link Albany link Boston - ( New Window )

I think the Long Island accumulations will be less, but we'll see.

And I work from home.

i'd still love the snow. And I have shoveled snow for years and years. Lived on a corner lot so we had to shovel two sidewalks and of course the stairs and driveway. Don't care...snow is cool, plus I snowboard. I've been lucky with the hours or schedule I have worked over the years that it usually didn't coincide with driving into a storm or dealing with the traffic.

There...glad I got that off my chest. Thanks for listening.

In comment 11503863 WeatherMan said:

Quote:

that's right in the changeover zone, up to 8" but I'd go less than that. And by the end of Thursday it will be wet and awful, then as it pulls away everything freezes back up with a little snow at the end to top it off. Local NWS branches are starting to put out accumulation maps. Boston is being... aggressive. Albany not up yet. Links to follow: Philadelphia link Long Island link Binghamton link Albany link Boston - ( New Window )

holy mackerel - 10 to 14 for Dutchess County ...

has NJ basically buried in 12"-18". For my town to be posting fairly alarming warnings about this on their Facebook/Website, it must be a pretty considerable threat. Oh, and the vast majority of the state of NJ is out of road salt. Yikes.

they're going high end. I'm not completely sold on it being that widespread, but it's definitely possible.

It gives me an excuse to take the day off and build this for the kids...

that's awesome. Just be careful as those things can collapse and I heard some horrible story a few weeks back. I'm sure you are careful...

is the graphic for the Winter Storm Watch. Please note that the track is still uncertain.
NWS Winter Storm Watch - ( New Window )

A Winter Storm Watch was not inevitable. It could have just been a Winter Weather Advisory. And it can still turn into one. I just like having Winter Storm Watches up. Will it turn into a Winter Storm Warning? That is going to depend on the model runs over night and early tomorrow morning. But it could easily turn into a Winter Weather Advisory which is not as much fun.

Philly dropping the ice forecast... interesting. I'm not going to up the totals across the board yet but the high end results are becoming more possible.

but as you said, I will wait until I get too excited. Like that first pic in the thread.

Westchester/Fairfield county basically.

Look above about 15-20 posts there's links to accumulations
CT,LI, & lower Dutchess Co - ( New Window )

snow baby snow!!

didn't know that included CT. Thanks!

IN all seriousness,... What would you think about schools in Glen Cove Long Island being open Thursday? Will the timing be right... the last composite link you posted said 6-8 for the area, but that was through friday...
Thanks in advance!!!

they cover a wider area. CT is tough for getting one map from NWS because there is no office in the state - the southern counties are forecast out of Islip, Litchfield by Albany and Hartford/Tolland/Windham by Boston.

Shock, this starts before dawn on Thursday, and as snow. In no way should schools on Long Island be open with the current forecast, and some might miss Friday too.

Thanks for your input.

Given the information, I think I'd rather it just be snow. I don't relish the idea of a snow/sleet/snow cycle over 24 hrs.

Here's to hoping it shifts those 25 miles east.

Ive lost to this weather is sickening. My income has literally been cut in half. Im just glad Valentine's Day weekend should be in the clear.

Ive lost to this weather is sickening. My income has literally been cut in half. Im just glad Valentine's Day weekend should be in the clear.

you are a scholar and a gentleman!

thanks a lot, its much appreciated.

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Hard to tell any difference between 2 and 24.

.

I was thinking the same thing earlier today.

Yellows, browns, oranges would all help.

Just wanted to say thanks for doing this for us. Much appreciated

hi

Is that putting Nassau County in the 2 foot range? I'm so confused.

Based on the rest of the map I'm assuming it's the 2 inch color rather than the 20+... but that doesn't make sense, either. I haven't seen any forecast that has LI pegged for as little as 2".. most of what I'm seeing is somewhere between 6 and 10.

Quote:

@nynjpaweather: The NAM so far is a cement like heavy snow from SE PA to C NJ to Long Island on north and west. Troubling. @nynjpaweather: We need to see ALL the models and data but I might be changing my forecast to snowier if other models follow NAM. @nynjpaweather: I have good sources telling me ALL models from 00Z have enhanced Gulf Data

We're fucked..

has the cental NJ area getting 2 feet of snow....

are like trying to pick up a foreigner that doesn;t speak any english... 12z -18z???
could someone please post on of these maps in LARGE format with proper explanations... I'll be your best friend!!!

We all know it's going to snow.. we all know when it's going to snow.. what's the difference if it's 6 inches or a foot? It's going to be inconvenient no matter what. All of the weather outlets are going to predict different things. I know when I wake up Thursday morning, there's going to be new snow on the ground and it's going to snow most of the day. I'm prepared for it. Not like it hasn't already happened about 5 other times this winter.

The snow is a comin
Buy all the bread

I love you Yankees 78

I have a flat roof in NE Westch Co; we're forked

I just love the free money to stay at home. Since Im not a teacher, also love that I dont have to lose vacation time memorial day weekend and easter break to make up for these snow days.

hope to see some decent snow

In comment 11504462 Blue Blood said:

Quote:

hope to see some decent snow

Where were you the past 4 weeks?

is near the bullseye. I read that Fairfield (CT) might be in the mix zone, but maybe the temps in Orange will be slightly lower which will cause the precip to remain snow.

Also it looks like the eastern part of the county could get more than the western part

5 day weekend!

But I'm down to 12 eggs, one loaf of bread, NO cheese and half a gallon of milk. I'm terrified. We can't survive. Must get cheese and more bread.

I'm in southern queens and it's saying 4-8". Doesn't seem like it's going to be that bad here I guess.

I like the concept behind the company, but not the execution. They made a great move in hiring Dr. Maue, he's damn good, but when it comes to maps I hate his color-coding schemes. Minor but presentationally relevant quibble. On the scientific basis, that is a control run. If you just look at control run results and don't examine the ensemble output you aren't looking at things in any detail, in fact it's willful obfuscation of reality. And too many folks on TV love to do that. A control presented as reality without an ensemble to back it up is wishcasting, not forecasting, to quote an old adage... wish in one hand, crap in the other... see which one fills up first! I'm sure they have more depth for the paid members, but those aren't legally reproducible in the media which kind of screws the whole point of the thing. Significant mixing is still supported near the coast, in NJ, LI, CT, RI, and eastern MA... those near the coast are not the max accumulation zones. That will be further inland where the changeover period is limited to non-existent.

Still feeling school closures despite the mixing???

To wake up this morning with totals in around I95 increasing. Looks like 4-8nown

will likely be worse than a full foot of snow. Schools will be shut down in either case.

tomorrow. It's been below zero overnight here for 3 or 4 days in a row.

Our tv weatherman this morning out of Albany did a nice job talking about the different models, the divergence among them and how he creates a forecast under such uncertainty. It was rather refreshing.

look at this thing blowing up
link - ( New Window )

it sure is... getting huge...
but I am really hoping for snow on the north shore rather than the freezing rain, ice, melting, refreezing crap we have been getting...

I don't miss that crap at all. Seems pretty nasty this year. Oddly we've been unusually warm down here like mid 80's often.

Looks like it's not going to be much of anything on LI. 2-3 inches tops before a changeover to mostly rain.

it very well could turn out like that but if you look at the forecasts, they also put in that amounts could be higher if the storm tracks slightly east.

It seems like pinpointing the exact track of this storm is almost an impossible task. Just a change of 20-50 miles can make a huge difference and it isn't known if that will happen.

the storm hugs the coast the better it is for less snow.

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Link - ( New Window )

Have you ever considered joining the Night's Watch?

what is that?

Tom is not a GOT fan.

I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men.

but is leaning toward the Euro model which has consistently predicted a good sized snowfall for us in the Berkshires of Western Mass. Right now they are suggesting 8 - 14in around here (with at least 75% confidence). The Euro is suggesting as much as 8in in a 6-hr period(!) which would be a really heavy fall, but that seems to be a bit umm, optimistic.

Looks like another snow day for the schools here tomorrow. At this rate they won't finish the year before July. At least my plow guy is happy!

National Weather Service...

the NWS Philadelphia for Carbon County.

Thinks track travels more east therefore no changeover. NOAA says 10-18 near union Essex area.

but very similar in how we are mere hours away from the event starting and still nobody really knows just where this bad boy is going to track

that there is a snow threat for Saturday too. Don't know how much consideration to put into that but I guess we get past this one first.

But I am hearing more realistically 11-16.

Regardless....it will be here by Midnight!

In comment 11505652 Jon from PA said:

Quote:

NWS Snow Forecast Image

Jon, how do you get that graphic? I'm trying to find the equivalent for the Albany office. Thanks!

or go to the office homepage, that's where I find the links. Albany below. Numbers are going up, I'm conservative by nature so as to avoid hype-busts... but this one is trending big.
albany map - ( New Window )

Weather.com keeps putting NYC likely around 5-6 inches, but everyone I'm reading articles it says 6-10. I know it's probably been discussed, but what is the latest?

Are the numbers above correct or still depends on track?

and LI is in for some larger numbers than expected.

Is this true?

In comment 11505900 GiantBlue said:

Quote:

Are the numbers above correct or still depends on track?

Those are NOAA's best guess based on the data they have. Whether or not they verify remains to be seen.

is weather

even more than it showed yesterday...

as I am smack dab in the middle of one of those 30 inch zones

do you have a link to that map?

keep in mind that is one model run. It's NOT a forcast.

.

The ratio used in that product is not right for everywhere, and it's assuming all the liquid becomes snow, which it won't. I'm still seeing a period of mixed precip, even just going to sleet for a few hours will hold down totals.

In comment 11505963 Giantology said:

Quote:

is weather

"It means Chuck!"

I am in the process of placing a bet with a coworker...
Glen Cove Long Island... Schools open or closed tomorrow?
I'll cut you in on the winnings hahahaha

So what is your accumulation prediction for New York City? Again, sorry if it's been discussed.

I'm mainly asking if I should expect to be at work tomorrow, lol (for frame of reference, we haven't had a snow day yet this year).

Mike - 6 to 10, limited by a period of mix/rain Thursday afternoon.

In comment 11506020 drkenneth said:

Quote:

In comment 11505963 Giantology said: Quote: is weather "It means Chuck!"

When life gives you lemons, just say 'Fuck the lemons,' and bail.

.

what you thinking total wise for roxbury nj morris county....we usually get higher end of prediction

weatherman!!!

area prediction please WM? I'm in the poconos area. I'm hearing absurb amounts up to 18 inches which I highly doubt.

so 12-20 inches is all but guaranteed for you guys

Be Safe All and keep posting on this thread! Let us know how you are all doing!

In comment 11506105 jlukes said:

Quote:

so 12-20 inches is all but guaranteed for you guys

Guess I'll get the snowboard ready for action tomorrow.

fuck me. 12-20 inches? You gotta be shitting me.

Tom Clark on WNEP still sticking with his 6-8 inches, but he doesn't know his head from his ass

still could get a foot though, I'd go 8-12 with a chance at 14 there.

I'm less bullish on the NEPA numbers, for once they are west of the max band instead of centered in it, 8-12 there as well for me. All snow, but not for as long a duration limiting numbers there.

dear god 8 inches of snow will cripple the city of Scranton till monday... As a kid I used to hope we got the most possible, but im not in the mood to shovel half my alley & parking spacesout again....

we will be closed tomorrow and gave them a 50/50 for Friday. We are a private school so we go by different standards than public schools.

I wont get a snow day regardless..

In comment 11506203 Blue Blood said:

Quote:

I wont get a snow day regardless..

Same. Working from home has its disadvantages.

joys of laptop.

why does it seem like everything on north shore of long island is being downgraded by the networks... I want to know that I can drink tonight and school will be cancelled tomorrow!!!

and my company is closed tomorrow. Sweet!

and that lowers the totals. In the morning it will be full on heavy snow, that should close down the schools rather easily.

In comment 11506382 WeatherMan said:

Quote:

and that lowers the totals. In the morning it will be full on heavy snow, that should close down the schools rather easily.

and then it goes back to snow until the morning the following day?

going to be quite a mess.

This is supposed to start around like 1-3 AM or thereabouts, yes?

and get really heavy in the morning, lingering until Friday morning even in LI because this one is moving up towards the coast of Maine and not being rushed on out to sea.

How much of the 10-14 will accumulate before 9am? Is it a even split before and after the changeover? Thanks!

Appreciated as always.

its great that we have our own expert here. Appreciated.

In comment 11506331 ShocknAwe80 said:

Quote:

why does it seem like everything on north shore of long island is being downgraded by the networks... I want to know that I can drink tonight and school will be cancelled tomorrow!!!

Seems like 2 hr delays for long island schools. Meaning employees risk your lives getting in on time.

In comment 11506497 KWhite2250 said:

Quote:

In comment 11506331 ShocknAwe80 said: Quote: why does it seem like everything on north shore of long island is being downgraded by the networks... I want to know that I can drink tonight and school will be cancelled tomorrow!!! Seems like 2 hr delays for long island schools. Meaning employees risk your lives getting in on time.

Yeah... thats what it looks like, but it is common for delays to be switched to closures... Fingers crossed

Just had Central NJ in the 9-12 range. Meaning New Brunswick area. Oy vey.

.

in Marlton, NJ -- 15 miles east of Center City Philly.

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wind map - ( New Window )

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wind map - ( New Window )

Unless this tapers off quickly, I think they missed the mark. I've cleared about 8" of snow already and it just keeps on coming.

We are getting heavy snow here East of Reading, PA and already 6 or so on the ground.....we are projected 10-14, but probably thinking closer to the 14 or more than the 10 based on looking out my front door.

Thinking oceanside would get 2-4 inches. Woke up to 4in at 8am. Swept away snow from my gate, walked to 7-11 about 15 mins away and when i got back there was a fresh inch in front of gate. Tbey absolutely under estimated snow totals on this one

it is really coming down. Visibility going to be a big issue for anyone on the road. May be 3-4 inches on the ground already.

here in Stamford. Wasn't too bad around 6am, but right now its brutal. Glad i'm working from home.

My office on Long Island originally had a delayed opening but now decided to close. It's not changing to rain. Pretty nuts out there. Snow day it is!

piling up in Times Square. Unless we get a big rain soak, this storm is going to overperform.

Of course, it's freezing rain and sleet, so it's now slicker than it was with just the snow, and still accumulating.

I woke up to 6 " in Annapolis at 4am and it now is barely 3".....but much much heavier. Sleet and rain now.

probably 6 inches on the ground already.

is keeping the temperatures down. When the precip lightens up the temp goes a little above freezing. When it comes down very heavy it goes below freezing. As long as the precip is coming down hard it will be snow. When it lightens up later it will go to a sleet/freezing/rain or just plain rain. Tonight it will snow again.

Now, tomorrow night into Saturday may be round 3 but from a different system where several inches could be possible. We can focus on that when today's is over.

It looks like it's gonna switch back and forth most of the day.

in just the last 2 hours.

be careful with your shovels. I sure hope mine does not break today.

here on LI, this snow doesn't look like it will end! The wind alone is causing some big drifts. My neighbors shoveled for me this morn at around 8:00 and it looks like they never were here. Just got out of hospital for minor heart surgery. This sucks!! I know Tom is Happy!! Well be careful!

Can anyone in the Northern Virginia area advise if my daughter will be able to get to New York via Amtrak tomorrow night?? She wants to come up against my wishes, I don't travel using Amtrak/Acela so not sure if they run in weather like this.

From the NWS in Upton. Snowing at over 6"+/hour on Long Island!!
AS OF 9 AM...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO
6 INCHES PER HOUR HAS OVERSPREAD COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...COLLOCATED WITH AN INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC BAND LIFTING
NORTH FROM CENTRAL NJ AND OFF THE OCEAN. REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
IN 30 MINUTES HAVE BEEN COMING INTO THE OFFICE UNDER THIS BAND.

7-8 inches here in union county. Just shoveled it. Its a bitch.

It is coming down like crazy......

giving some sweet sideways snow in the face action. I guess I'll just wait til the sun goes down to head back home, as I have been previously assured that there is no wind at night.

But seriously, this seems like a total monster. My firm closed last week and I feel like they are only open today because they decided to close that time for a storm that was kind of underwhelming. No way they could close for that storm and remain open for this one under any objective standard.

I'll meet you at Tigin's at 8:30 tonight!

Pretty bad here in what is essentially far North Stamford; we're
~ one mile into NYS from the CT border and already have 9"
on the ground. I've got a s..t load of snowplowing coming at
me on a steep driveway that never got ice free from the first
of the storms we've had the last 10 days, let alone the last two,
and now this.

Skies are leaden grey, the light outside, even though all white with
heavy, blowing snow, is like 5PM.

Second straight storm NWS has had to scramble to up its accumulation
forecast.

are you right before Pound Ridge? I can't even imagine the roads north of the Merrit Parkway. My parents live by Rippowan and TOR, and its crappy over there, must be worse by you.

I can't really see out of my windows right now. I'm down washington blvd past the train station. Shuttles were running at 6am but I think they stopped by now. It's a mess outside.

and Reading. This storm is a monster!

the precip will probably stop in about an hour or so and be on and off very light the rest of the day until this evening when the snow could pick up again and be heavy at times adding several more inches.

Shovel now while you can because everything will freeze up tonight with snow over it.

i'd venture to say north jersey will get closer to 15 inches assuming this thing packs the 1-2 punch. We must have close to a foot on the ground already. It's coming down in buckets over the last 2 hours or so.

went from blowing huge flakes to a rain / sleet / snow mix

...

i went out and did a quick run with the blower, but this thing just hasn't stopped in intensity since 9.

Hard to say because the wind has been gusting. My guess is 6 or 7 inches.

Snowfall got lighter, was real heavy from 7am to about 10:30am, so I went out and did a quick run with the snow blower up and down the driveway. The snow was a tad lighter than I was anticipating.

Looks like a mixed precipitation now. I wanted to move the snow before the rain made it already heavier than it is. Worse comes to worst when it changes back to snow I hit the driveway again after sunset.

Appreciate the updates from others as well. I find event like this, and how it affects the area, interesting. Say safe all.

And we're over a foot here. Looked out the window at 7:00 and thought that maybe it wouldn't be too bad, and by 11:00 there was a solid foot on the ground.

looks like freezing rain/sleet in north jersey, Fort Lee.

that stuff is heavy.

Be careful out there shoveling. Take your time.

just told me NYC & Brooklyn totals upped to 10-16" now.

Gah.

We are getting 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour right now.

In comment 11507339 Josh in the City said:

Quote:

just told me NYC & Brooklyn totals upped to 10-16" now.

Funny because the school chancellor and the mayor were just saying that it stopped snowing in the city and roads will be fine for commute home

There's going to be a second wave later for areas where it's tapered off.

There probably will be a window where you can travel, but the snow will start again.

13" in union county. Upped it 5 " from last post

Looks like some of it actually melted.. my car is visible in some spots now and it was totally buried 2 hours ago. This is probably the window where I need to get out there and shovel even though it's just going to get more snow dumped on later anyway.

In comment 11507287 drkenneth said:

Quote:

...

hehehehehehehehehehehhe

...

In comment 11507354 ShocknAwe80 said:

Quote:

In comment 11507339 Josh in the City said: Quote: just told me NYC & Brooklyn totals upped to 10-16" now. Funny because the school chancellor and the mayor were just saying that it stopped snowing in the city and roads will be fine for commute home

Yeah, I'm in SoHo now and it's just raining. But oddly enough, in Brooklyn, Accuweather says its snowing still. I have no idea what's going on in Jersey City, where I currently live, or East Brunswick, where my family home is.

in Pound Ridge, about 5 miles pretty much due north on Long Ridge Rd. Pretty bad here, probably about the same as Rippowam, usually 4 or 5 degrees colder than Stamford.

What is TOR? Whenever we're taking Metro North we naturally go down Washington under the NHRR overpass and left into the parking lots. Sometimes when I go to Fairway (I cook a lot) I take the "back way", going past RR Avenue (or whatever it's called) and turn left beyond what looks like a new apartment building and head toward Atlantic, crossing it to Henry, and to Fairway from that street.

Sleet here now and not heavy, guess we're waiting for the other shoe.

for the second wave??? Is this accurate?

We easily have a foot. Just cleared the driveway - fucking brutal.

yeah, i bet its a lot messier by you with far less plowing. I haven't even looked at the streets yet since my apartment faces a sidestreet which isn't a good indicator. I am in the tallest of all the new buildings after the train station, basically straight down Washington Blvd right next to what was the Beer Garden. Fairway is about a half mile from me.

TOR is Turn of River, basically between Springdale and High Ridge, all before the Merritt. The back of TOR Middle School leads to my parents neighborhood. I grew up all over Stamford; Glenbrook mainly, then in the Rippowam/TOR area, now downtown.

.

E. PA weather authority for additional snow from 6pm tonight through tomorrow am

I just saw that.

People at work thought I was crazy to even suggest that we may not be at work tomorrow.

ahh, ok, there's a Turn of the River Hardware on High Ridge but never realized it referred to an area of Stamford.

Springdale is over by Hope St., no, just west of 95 and a bit north of Stamford city proper?

Jon, NWS saying 6" - 10" more here in Northern Westchester, So. Fairfield, Putnam, etc. This baby still has some wallop left.

Just spent ~90 minutes with the snow blower getting two cuts up and down, the dog going berserk, heavy sledding, and all that work may go by the boards tonight, but there's no way I can cut through =/>22" on a single pass, so I've got to reduce the volumes. Until I widen the cuts, I'm stranded, would not be able to get out with the car (AWD).

has lost her mind

Snowstorm for Central Suffolk County on east. Could be looking at 4-8"+. 2-4 and 3-6 elsewhere. The further east on Long Island the more you will get. They were saying 6-12 is possible in the 4-8" area but I don't think there will be that much. But if there is banding maybe someone gets 10.

The morning computer model runs will be interesting.

And it's coming down pretty hard . I'm slated for 3-5.

Big flakes coming down rapidly. We'll get about 4-6 inches.

looks like the east side of it means business from the radar, though

it flurried for an hour-plus but nothing stuck -- it was almost 40 degrees. Is there something else coming -- it is windy.

THe weather report says snow starting at 3... We shall see

in Brooklyn, but not much is sticking... yet

Looks like another one is on deck for Monday...

we could get 1-3 inches.

After that, it looks like temps will be in the 40's to around 50. Maybe even in the 50's in NYC.

This will be about a 5 day warm up before cold and snow may move back in for the end of February.

day has little to no snow and it's going to be too warm on this week for Tuesday's snow to amount to much. WOOOOOOO

The snow will start tomorrow late night when the temps are colder.

And you won't see anything about possible snow this far in advance for February 23ish. But a lot can change. There is another cold outbreak forecasted for the end of the month into March.

Don't worry, warmer weather will be here, eventually.