is not to depress, but to highlight that this team needs a lot of help.
We can challenge for the division given the state of the NFC East. But we're a long ways away from challenging the elite teams again unless Reese hits a home run this offseason.
The second paragraph of the DL portion has a "these" that should be a "they."
Also:
Quote:
Although he is only 26 and should be entering the prime of his career, Nicks is likely to depart by free agency, meaning the Giants will lose the services of another high-round draft pick before it should have been anticipated.
Why shouldn't the team be anticipating the potential departure of a player at the point when his contract expires? Free agents get to decide where they play.
Hard to believe the cupboard is so empty. Glaring holes at OL, TE and RB and there are no answers anywhere to be found on the roster. Remember when Shockey went down and we had Boss to replace him? Or Jacobs, Ward and (later) Bradshaw to replace Tiki? And Tuck to step right in for Stray? Those days are over thanks to our sorry drafting. Hard to believe Mara/Reese assessed the situation and determined Gilbride was the one who failed.
Enoch, because most teams don't let 26-year old first round draft picks who were core players get away. If Nicks didn't disappoint so badly since Week 2 of 2012, the Giants wouldn't let him go.
Hammer. If that were true, then the Giants should fire Coughlin and trade Eli. But they have made the decision that they two have one more run in them.
" And the two-time Super Bowl MVP found himself once again the target of critics who had been cowering for the last five years."
Struck home with me. The haters had no choice but to shut up after two Super Bowl wins, but they didn't go anywhere, they were just lurking.
I don't get the doubt about Eli..............physically he has lost nothing, did he just become a bad quarterback, or did it have something to do with a line that couldn't protect him long enough to run the trees this offense required.
Of course Reese should bank on Manning, to move on from him at this stage of his career would be a huge mistake.
As to the state of the Giants compared to so called contenders...it might look bleak at the moment, but the NFL changes quickly from year to year.
How did the Eagles prospects read at this point last year?
Fix the offensive line, that's not impossible, and let's see where this team is at the end of the season.
In 2011 we could not believe we lost a home game to Seattle, and Denver was going from Orton to Tebow at QB. Two years later they were in the Super Bowl.
The mountain to climb is not nearly as high as it used to be. If you're competent at GM, HC, and QB you are in the running to win the Super Bowl.
We just saw the Seahawks win the Super Bowl. The Seahawks. I'd argue there are more potential champs in 2014 than not. We are in that group. Just hope the injury roulette wheel falls favorably for us.
...very thorough and very realistic picture of the current state of the New York Giants.
Ugh.
As I re-read your analysis, I kept coming back to something that occurred to the Giants maybe a little before your time.
There was a very ugly 2-part stretch by the Giants pre- and post-Fran Tarkenton (1964 - 1966) & (1972 - 1980). While various facets of the squad had their ugly stretches over that 12-year period, there was one area in particular (outside of QB) that really stands out in my mind:
A VERY BAD OFFENSIVE LINE!
Jerry Reese needs to focus on the O-line. The longer that problem drags out, the more likely the current Giants will resemble that mess from the 60s and 70s.
Very true...but the NFC East is misleading because the division isn't very good. Best Giants can hope for right now is to win the East, and then get hot in the playoffs. (Not impossible).
But there are structural problems at a lot of key positions. You'd be hard pressed to find a team that can replace four starters on the OL in one offseason for example. Somehow they have to replace Nicks' 2010-2011 production. DE and CB is in a serious transition mode. Who is the starting TE and RB?
and I mostly agree with your analysis. I only differ in this opinion:
Quote:
If the Giants fail to make the playoffs in 2014 and Coughlin is let go in January 2015, then it was a mistake to retain him.
I don't know that it was a mistake to retain him regardless. In my opinion, you have to determine whether there was someone else who was available that would have represented some kind of upgrade. Looking over the coaches available I'm not sure that coach was there for them this year.
I come from the camp that says keep your coach unless you are sure you can improve him. Otherwise you are going backward.
All in all, I really agree with everything you wrote and enjoyed the write-up. Thanks!
I agree with almost all of it. The offense specifically is what I focus on, and you summed it up quite well. It's a mess or to go a step further, it's a damn shit show. We lack speed and play makers on offense. Cruz is our only home run threat who can score from anywhere on the field. After that, nothing.
That's pretty god awful. This draft and free agency will be key in bringing more talent to surround Eli.
I understand your point, but I'm coming from the point of view that this really is a rebuilding job...not a gigantic one that involves finding a new quarterback, but most of the offense needs to be reconstructed. Coughlin is 67. If the team doesn't make the playoffs in 2014. He will be 68 with a team not making the playoffs for three straight years. There is a good chance he will be let go. Meanwhile, Manning turns 34 and the clock is ticking.
And the media basically conceeding that Joseph is going to walk...the Giants have few strengths, DT with Joseph and Hankins is potentially one, I would rather see those two than 33 year old Cullen Jenkins and 31 year old Jystin Tuck. JPP, Hankins, Joseph, Moore may have questions but age is not one of them...madness in the NFL is repeating the same behavior over and over, drafting Joseph, Austin, Hankins and if you let Joseph go a DT in 2015, is madness...
I don't buy the Giants drafted Hankins because they thought Joseph may walk, if they did that than they were under delusions about the strength of their overall roster last year.
It's time to build, not put together a team that is a 8-8 or 9-7 team next year to save front office jobs...changing three assistants is nice but is it just an attempt to cover up past drafting errors...we will see.
Generally not a pessimist, but I not seeing a recognition yet of how talent thin this team is.
but consider this: We let Coach C. go for a coach that is not as good as Coach C. What have we really accomplished?
Well, it is likely we will underperform given the same set of players in 2014. Do we then decide to replace Coach x, who is not as good a coach as Tommy C.? If so, why not just hang on to Coach C. an extra year?
In other words, while it would seem best to just replace Coughlin sooner than later if you're going to replace him at all (and I agree with that logic), it is first dependent on there being a top coach available - one you want to build your program around. Was there a top coach around this year that we could've signed? That's a separate topic for debate.
Again, really liked what you wrote, only took issue with that one perspective. Think about it, maybe you'll come around to seeing it my way.
scenario for the OL? They bring back Baas and Snee and they get hurt again. But if they come back and stay healthy, it could help with the transition.
But man, if they want to get away from seasons being ruined by injury (which happens a lot to them), they need to start getting rid of the aging and injury-prone guys.
but adding depth too?! Every team has injuries....you need capable depth in this sport in order to succeed. This looks terribly like a 2-3 year rebuild. If that is the case then why bring back Coughlin? Reese could also be shown the door next off-season if we don't get to the playoffs again.
First, the difference between this team being a competitive team and what it is will be determined by the offensive side of the ball. Look at the Seattle game - we hit, hurried, and sacked Wilson and held beast
mode to about 50 yards. That's a respectable outing. On offense they had nothing to fight back with.
Second, hopefully the new OC has a plan. Don't see how such a hot commodity from such a perennial offensively elite team cannot help the Giants.
Third, run game - pass game - it all depends on what happens with the OL. The Giants had about 7 games where they rushed for 70 yards or less - that's barely a decent half of football. There were few holes to run thru and Eli had little time. The OL was arguably one of the worst in the league. Based on last year's performance - most of the players should be discarded.
Eric - I seriously doubt JR or the Maras and Co. will risk this season on the health of Snee and Baas. What do they have to work with - Pugh? But a few others can help. Cordle was improving and playing fairly well so hopefully he can be at least a stop gap at Center. It would help if one of the reserves could help and perhaps Mosley is the best suited to do that. Brewer was disappointing. Boothe played poorly last year - hopefully that was partially due to the inconsistency caused unit cohesion a side effect of the injuries. Bottom line - OL should be the pick in round 1.
But setting the draft aside for now - JR needs to do for the OLine what he did for the DLine last year. Bring in some players 28 or older who can provide solid, B+ play (and on occasion better) for the duration of the season. Not an impossible feat. So, the first step will be to see what JR does for the OL in FA. If he screws that up - I doubt he can compensate for it in the draft.
WRs - We have Cruz, Jernigan, and Randle - we could do a lot worse than that corps of receivers. Again, this is another area where JR can really help the team by picking up one B+ player in FA. In fact, give a respectable level of talent on hand - a B or C+ player and some new offensive ideas could be sufficient.
TE - who the hell knows what we have there. Robinson cannot stay healthy and then there is Fells. The one thing that gives me cause for optimism is that the new OC seems to know how to get significant production from the TE position.
But, it all starts with the OL. My projection for this year will depend on which OL JR picks up as a FA - he cannot fix that mess thru the draft alone. If he fails - TC's a goner, IMO. That line "he can coach as long as he wants to" is one of the more foolish things I have read on this site. This year looks anything like last year and not significantly better - TC's gone.
Defense - Moore has done okay and will play better. Tuck will probably move on. JPP will return to form so they will need to add to the rotation. CB is the real pressing need here. Keeping Joseph and finding an "off-the-field" brain for Will "the strawman" Hill would be very beneficial for the team's future.
1 . The Giants need to focus on rebuilding the O-line. If they can settle it down...everything else will build off of that.
2. They need Beatty, Bass or Snee, JPP and a few of the recent draft picks to contribute. If the cupboard is as bare as it looked at the end of last season, the Giants are in for an extended rebuilding period. You can't consistently miss on draft picks and expect to be decent.
This team isn't in as bad of a place as people keep saying. First off, your opinion on the 2014 team probably changes with your thoughts on Eli. I am of the belief that he will bounce back big if we improve the line. If he does, our offense has plenty of weapons and enough talent to score. Sure we need a TE as well, but it shouldn't be hard to find a capable TE that doesn't break the bank. Fix the line, get a reasonable TE and our offense is plenty good enough to win games.
Defensively, the key is keeping our own(Beason and Joseph) and getting a threat at DE. That threat could be Moore(I can't possibly know if it is), a FA acquisition or a 2014 draft pick. My opinion on upgrading the DE position would depend on how much money we have and who we like in the draft(I can't possibly know the answers to these either). Re-sign Beason, LJ, find a capable CB2 and our defense is also plenty good enough to win.
We know that this coach and QB has what it takes to win. Retool both lines and we are contenders. A brand new offensive system/coaches should help as well.
Nicks was quoted as saying he was the senior receiver on the team and wanted to work with the younger guys to increase their production. he went on to state he would lead by example. He then tells Coughlin he would attend the OTA's then doesn't show up. He follows all that with a disappointing season and zero td catches. He reportedly was fined for showing up late for meetings as well.
Lets look at the flip side here. Lets say he caught 12 td passes, gained 1250 yds receiving last year. Would the Giants have given him a big contract OR would Reese have told him he had a nice year..franchised him for 2014, and said lets see if you can do it again. I'm thinking he was very careful this year and intends to gamble with being a free agent in hopes of landing a better deal. Does this make any sense?
But it won't be easy. There is a strong argument for blowing this up and having a weak year and getting all these bad contracts gone.
But if they wanted to they could extend Eli and Rolle whilst still taking their medicine on Kiwi and Baas and spend all the $ on the OL in free agency. Get a new OG and OC of quality. Bring back Boothe and Cordle. Draft an OT to challenge Beatty. Fix that OL and things will suddenly look much better.
The D will be alright, as long as they bring Rolle and Beason back. I'd try to bring Tuck back too. The major factor will be can JPP return to form. Upgrades will be tough but the major need will be at CB.
But again, we may need to replace 4/5ths of the OL, we need a starting TE, we need a starting RB. The good news is we have the QB and some receivers. But Reese hasn't replaced a lot of guys who have left. And to be brutally honestly, he got real lucky with Victor Cruz. That was a gift from the gods.
On defense, things could fall apart pretty quickly unless JPP rebounds and Moore comes on. If Amukamara gets hurt...
Seattle hit a home run in their drafts. They got production from their players and some of those are household names now in the NFL.
Good QB play helped Denver. They went from Tebowmania to an immortal all time great QB.
You need to draft very well and bring in key FA to the mix like seattle did with Michael B, the DE.
We are not in that tier. We have holes everywhere. We will need to hit a home run in this years draft and perhaps next year, as well as , stay healthy and bring in key FA.
Let's hope it doesn't take 2 years or more for everyone to learn the scheme and it be successful. I don't think we are close at all.
I think we need favorable conditions or variables such as excellent drafting, production from our draft classes, and key free agents to make noise.
Re-signing a guy (Nicks) because he was a 1st round pick would be the much bigger mistake than letting him walk.
The Giants got value out of Nicks, he's due a big pay day. Replacing guys like Nicks with lower cost value than what he's due to get elsewhere is part of rebuilding.
I agree about the caution, but not the complete pessimism. Yes, there are about 4-5 positions that you can argue would warrant a 1st or 2nd round selection. But, overall, I still believe this team can contend with a decent offseason. Why?
First and foremost they still have Eli Manning. With a new West Coast style offense, I think he will be able to mask some of their deficiencies on offense, much like his brother did in Denver, to a lesser degree. Second, this defense took on a whole new look with beason at MLB and that started from day one of his tenure. The combination of an improving D and Weatherford at P (assuming a bounce back year) is a good combo most weeks to give the Giants an excellent shot as long as they limit turnovers.
if we sign two rather young and talented OL in FA, even iff the extra cost reaults in us losing LinJo..Doesn't take all that long for experienced and talented vets to get in sync, imv
Or are we basing that on his stint in GB? I remember reading that he wants to go way more uptempo, but I don't remember reading that he's bringing the same system here.
I'm not sure if you have seen the NFL Network Top 10 series on Draft Classes, but one team I never thought about was the 1986 49ers.
They had 8 draft picks that year. But Walsh and his staff saw how deep the class was and concluded that they need more picks as their team was transitioning from the early 80's squad to a younger group.
What they did was used their 8 picks and leveraged them into 14, completely restock the roster and somehow came out with 8 starters who became key players for them.
Giants find themselves in a similar spot now. Manning at $20 million is not going anywhere barring a complete meltdown. $46 million is in 5 other players. So the only way around this is drafting and (hopefully) develop a sizable contingent of "quality cheap labor"
Can the Giants turn their 6 picks into, let's say, 9 or 10? If this is truly the deepest class in the last 10 years, then let's get enough labor on the team as possible.
I know we are fixated at picking at #12. But seeing all of the problems as you mentioned in the story, we need bodies....a lot of them.
You may be right about Eli. But, I suspect it will not be a true West Coast offense. I think it will incorporate a lot of our vertical game with more underneath stuff mixed in. We really have no idea, thought, waht to expect other than a quicker tempo, which in and of itself is a good thing.
we drafted Hankins to replace Joseph? He was drafted because he was good value and Canty was leaving and could not stay on the field. We also drafted the bust Austin in the 2nd round trying to get anothe DT. Joseph has always been a keeper and a core player for this team. Because we finally got one right, now we should let him go? Asinine !
I think he is going to surprise a lot of people and win one of the starting guard spots. He played excellent during the preseason when he filled in for Snee. Remember he missed his entire rookie year due to an injury so he was basically a rookie last season.
Nice article Eric although I think you may be a tad negative. My own sense is that the Giants may in fact be a whole lot closer to getting back into the mix than most around here.
For starters my take on the past season was that the real culprit in the 7-9 season (and certainly the real culprit in the 0-6 start that ultimately doomed the season) were the turnovers almost all of which were unforced and rather ad hoc. Hard to imagine that the Giants will be -16 through the season next year and already you are much better off.
And clearly the Giants have some personnel issues, but they also have most of the core positions covered. They have their QB. Obviously Eli has to play better (and if he doesn't the Giants could very well find themselves a whole lot closer to square one). But he obviously can play better (and its hard not to make the case that just an average Eli year - 62-63%; 25 TDs; 16 INTs and the Giants very likely would have made the playoffs last season) and is still basically a young guy by NFL QB standards. Hopefully he gets rejuvenated in 2014 like Rivers last year with a fresh start in a more QB friendly scheme. The Giants also have the makings of a pretty receiver group even without Nicks. Cruz is one of the best in the league and Randle and Jernigan have some potential. Add in a WR in the first or second round this May (and maybe even a second in the middle rounds) in this year's very talented receiver class and the receivers should be more than solid.
Obviously the offensive line has to be rebuilt, but the good news is that unlike QB, and to a lesser extent WR, you don't need star players on the OL. What you need are solid players who know what they are doing ans those kind of guys can almost always be found in FA at a reasonable price. In fact, come June 2 there will very likely be as many as a couple of dozen solid veteran OL out there literally begging for a job. In fact, it would not surprise me if the Giants went out and signed as many as 3-4 vet OL between March 11 and the opening of training camp. The Giants also need some upgrading at both RB and TE but you can win with JAGs (just a guy) at those positions and again there are always JAGs available in FA and the later draft rounds at those positions, although it not surprise me if the Giants used a top pick on either or both positions this May if there is a guy there they really felt was more than just a JAG.
I have made the case in other venues that with all the doom and gloom in Giants-land that the major improvement in the defense has been kind of glossed over. This year's Giants had a lot of guys who swarmed to the ball, tackled well and generally didn't make many mistakes. And the improvement came without much of a pass rush at least until very late in the year. In fact, I would guess that if you asked someone like Jerry Reese what was the Giants biggest need to get back to a championship level (as opposed maybe to fixing what went wrong in 2013) the answer would be a rejuvenated pass rush. And again the Giants have a pretty good starting point in JPP who has the talent to be a DPOY if he's finally healthy again. Again, though if 2011 turns out to be a mirage for JPP then it would be back to the drawing board on that side of the ball, but right now he's an awfully good starting point. The other DE however remains a sticking point (and I would argue is the Giants real biggest need heading into the off-season) but its not a particularly strong position in the draft and decent edge rushing FA DEs can be pricey.
Bottom line is that there are a lot IFs with the Giants, but that's pretty much the case with every team in the league. The core remains pretty solid, although needless to say stars like Eli and JPP have to play much better, while most of the problem areas involve the role positions which generally are easier to fix than the core group.
we drafted Hankins to replace Joseph? He was drafted because he was good value and Canty was leaving and could not stay on the field. We also drafted the bust Austin in the 2nd round trying to get anothe DT. Joseph has always been a keeper and a core player for this team. Because we finally got one right, now we should let him go? Asinine !
Okay, fine. How much do you want to spend to keep him?
Is the DE's..It's very easy to predict that JPP is going to bounce back and Tuck, if they keep him, is going to be productive.
This is the thing about the off-season. It's very easy to say, 'Eli is going to bounce back, Jernigan and Randle are going to get better, etc"..But that's really being overly optimistic and, honestly, looking through blue colored glasses.
We would hope that's the case and may seem likely, but as a GM, you have to plan for the worse. I give the chances of Eli having a solid season much more higher than Randle or jernigan "breaking out"..As i give the chances of Moore breaking out or Hankins for that matter. Relying on rookies and players who have shown a flash will get you fired.
i seriously doubt Reese is going to sign some young, good OL in FA because 1) they can't afford it and 2) he' s not going to give up on HIS draft picks. That will be conceding he made mistakes and that is bad for a GM..
I suspect he will sign 1 or 2 veteran OL to go with a one in the draft. They definitely need to draft a DE because Tuck and Kiwi are not long term and you're not sure the status of JPP..Another vet corner in FA or in the draft won't hurt either..
Biggest problem is, lots of teams has lots of money..The Giants might have to wait until the second wave of the FA period to get what' s left. And redoing Eli's contract is not an option because it will still cost more money in the end and will handicap the team in the future..Mara has said that a few times..
The Giants may need to fill four spots in the OL and have had a
bottom five (case for even worse) OL two out of the last three seasons, with the other season being mediocre or so.
A GM in Reese's shoes refuses to look at younger FAs along the OL because of loyalty to the likes of Moseley and unwillingness to admit previous mistakes is a bad GM. Not one that does.
I know what Optimus said but i also know what Mara said. He stated they are comfortable with the way Eli contract is constructed and do not want to change it. They might, do Rolle's if they can agree to something..
Regardless of what Optimus or cap experts on BBI say (no offense to them), being doable is one thing. The ownership wanting to do it and knowing it will cost them more money to redo (see Bass and Kiwi), will give them pause..
BTW, we we went and signed Canty and Boley, they had a lot more money and less holes to fill..It would be dumb (imo) to just let LJ go to sign some young OL in FA..just looking at the Ol FA market, the top guys are going to command about 8 - 10M a year..
Why I find it comical when I hear people review the Giants 2013 season and instantly blame Manning. Yeah he played poorly for parts, but the team as a whole needs improvement. The biggest issue being Reese mishandling the OL, the TE spot, the RB spots, and the LB's. He made a nice move by handing out a late pick for Beason, and now he's a FA. Re-sign him and the linebackers will not be an issue. Williams improved as the season wore and the third backer can be a cheap Keith Rivers, Paysinger, or somebody new. The TE and RB will be interesting so I'm betting McAdoo will be inserting his two cents on that. OL is gotta be Reese's big hand and sign a big FA and perhaps add another vet, as well as acquiring some in the draft as well.
But adding key free agents or even one key free agent, who in time, turned our club into a championship contender.. Plax & AP for our first one, Antrel Rolle for our second one. Never saw the Giants just go all out on a off season spending spree. But if we add one or two guys who can play we can turn things around, book it. Only problem is who, are those one/two guys we can sign? And our rookies played a big role in out championship runs, particularly in '07-'08. C'mon JR you got this!
draft in 20 years. You can actually get 2 immediate OL starters this year through round 3 or 4. If that sounds like BS, so be it, but I think it's true. This is the year to be the Browns, with 10 picks.
That said, Reese won't use 2 of his top 3 picks on the OL. I'll bet Randy's left nut Reese gets a starting OG in the draft.And, he'll get another starting OG in free agency. The key is OC. Baas,Boothe,Cordle or Snee( I hope he saves his body and retires), but hopefully someone else.
"You can actually get 2 immediate OL starters this year through round 3 or 4."
I guess that all depends on how many teams are jones-ing for offensive line talent.
For our sake, it better not be too many. We need more talent along the front than just about any team in the NFL. That's starting quality and backup quality.
I see Reese going O-line twice in the first 3 rounds. Unless, of course, he makes a major splash in free agency.
In two years - Jenkins, Patterson, Rogers and Hankins. He can do the same for the offensive line, with the draft and free agents.
There's a long list of Giants free agents that Reese has to deal with. No need to blow up the whole thing, but sometimes it's just best to begin the process by asking the question - "What have you done for me lately ?" .
If the answer is negative - "sorry, you have to go"
I've read this entire thread and choose the optimists
...call me crazy but I think it takes more time for O-linemen to gel together than D-linemen. In the latter case, it's more a case of throwing them red meat and rattling their cage.
The good news for Beatty, as it was revealed on Monday, is that he suffered no ligament damage in his knee or anywhere else in his leg as a result of the fracture. And after undergoing successful surgery to repair the fracture, he is expected to remain off his feet for several weeks before rehab begins. And, assuming there are no setbacks, is expected to be ready for the start of the 2014 regular season. Beatty injury/surgery - ( New Window )
...if we don't need 4 new starters along the O-line, we certainly need 3. And we need new quality depth that won't embarrass itself. This entire unit is a major project.
...nice to hear about Beatty. But are you concerned at least just a little that we poured so much money in a guy who -- at times -- absolutely embarrassed himself out on the field last season. He looked dazed and confused, weak and worthless. Not a good situation for the guy we paid the big bucks to protect our franchise's blind side.
Because I HAVE BEEN SAYING THE SAME THING RIGHT ALONG....Funny, If this had been posted under my name, I would have been castrated by BBI......Eric, give you credit though, for telling it like it is......there are so many freakin' holes on this team, the front office would have to hit a home run on just about every one of them to get this team back on top.....One thing this team definitely does not have is depth...it's not just a matter of having starting players.....injuries are a way of life in the NFL.....they happen.....some teams are more equipped to handle them, than others....
Does anyone actually think Snee and Baas would accept huge pay cuts for next season? Yet I hear guys thinking maybe they can play one more season? If these guys are not cut and don't take a huge pay cut, where is all this cap room going to come from?
Based on the state of the draft/FAcy moves this front office has made over the last 3-4 seasons. it's just hard to imagine a complete turnaround on their part.....
but yet, Reese totally thought going into last year....they were talented enough to put a Super Bowl clock in their locker room, which turned out to be a terrible mistake....
we were certainly broken last year....and am amazed by the New England Patriots who I felt had far less talent then us but yet made to a game from the Super Bowl.
I understand why we could be considered the worse OL in football....but with Pugh...a healthy Baas and Snee and a refocused Beatty and some added talented....we could be most improved.
Our TE are the worse.....or the most unproven? who really knows....
bottom line is that it is never as bad, nor as good......
the Giant need to be active, successful....certainly can not coast this year with false expectation.
with a little luck.....we won't be the most talented....but that is ok.... we weren't in 1990, 2007, 2011 either.
Yes, I am definitely concerned, I'm just being optimistic
Beatty was good enough to earn that contract
Maybe he'll show why going forward
We really need him to
that a guy like Rolle is owed a lot of money. He signed a contract. He plays every game. He plays with fire. He plays at a high level .He earned his contract. You just can't have it both ways. Same thing with Eli. Two time Super Bowl MVP QBs cost $20 million a year. Hell 1 time Super Bowl winning QBs (Flacco) and zero time Super Bowl winning QBs (Romo) cost more than that. So you want your best players to be paid a lot of money. Because to be paid that money is sign that they have been winners. But once they are paid that money everyone considers them part of the problem.
When almost everything's a mess, rebuild from the inside out...
by starting with the trenches. Get the O-line to be a dominant force again. Everything emanates from the trenches. JR has to take calculated risks, because he doesn't have the resources to do otherwise. Accept that Beatty and Pugh are going to perform in 2014. Inside of them, it's a mess. He needs two solid Guards and a top Center who can dominate, and restore confidence in Eli that he has the protection he needs to take the team to the playoffs. JR will need a mix of FAs and draft picks to reestablish the Blocking that was missing. Bite the bullet and trade down with the 12th to pick up an extra 2nd and another pick, because no blockers of 12th pick value will be there at 12. With the late 1st and extra 2nd grab two Guards... Xavier Su'a-Filo and Zack Martin or David Yankey, and a Center Weston Richburg or Marcus Martin. It's entirely reasonable to believe 3 of them are to be had with a late 1st and 2 second round picks. Sign Boothe to be the versatile backup. Now the O-line's set. It's very young, and will be exploited early. But like Pugh, they'll get better and better as the season progresses. Beatty-Su'aFilo-Richburg-Yankey-Pugh will become a real force in 2014, and even better in 2015 and beyond. With the 3rd round pick take Carlos Hyde, who excels as a pass protector and will pound the rock behind that powerful line. With the 4th round pick take the best WR left... Cooks, Moncrief, Davis, Matthews, Robinson, Norwood, Huff. JR will still need a top FA Corner opposite Prince, and read the riot act to Robinson and Donnell to step the hell up as a play making blocking TE or they're gone. With Wilson recovered and ready to play a Darren Sproles role, and Jernigan continuing to demonstrate he's a playmaker... this offense could get it done, and not take two or three years to do it. No?
Both very good players back-in-the-day are football broken (two bad hips and Chronic neck/ACL, respectively) .
Nice guys, too, but at this time, they'll just get in the way.
I know, realistically, it takes time for offensive lines to jell, but there are examples of pieces thrown together, that worked - the Ravens' Superbowl team's O-line of 2013 is the latest example. It can be done.
The best asset the O-line has is Pugh. Second-best is Beatty, he MUST come back healthy and knock off the cobwebs for the team to do well.
It's going to be really hard to replace three linemen in one year, so realistically we need to get one more year out of Boothe at left guard.
That leaves two positions to fill, for sure this year - right guard and center.
...turned in a terrible performance, lost his confidence and then incurred a serious injury.
Had he just played "OK" in the first year of his new contract, then we could all hang out hats on him and Pugh and just focus on three interior linemen.
But, nooooooooooooooo, Beatty went south when we could least afford it. His position; his play; and his health are all now part of an incredibly difficult calculus that Jerry Reese needs to figure out.
It ain't gonna be easy.
Jerry Reese: Sharpen your pencil. The time is NOW. You need to answer a question you've been avoiding for 2-3 years now.
I understand your point, but I'm coming from the point of view that this really is a rebuilding job...not a gigantic one that involves finding a new quarterback, but most of the offense needs to be reconstructed. Coughlin is 67. If the team doesn't make the playoffs in 2014. He will be 68 with a team not making the playoffs for three straight years. There is a good chance he will be let go. Meanwhile, Manning turns 34 and the clock is ticking.
I'm inclined to agree with Dan.There wasn't anyone out there I saw as an upgrade, and unless you can upgrade why change? We are talking about next season here. I don't see how TCs age is a detriment going into the 2014 season. Is he senile? Lacking the requiste energy? I think if anything he brings more energy and drive to his job than a great many younger coaches out there.if the issue is 2015,2016, and beyond, then you assess when you get there.If an upgrade is available, then fine, take him.It's not like the coach counts against the cap and can't be fired without hurting the rest of the roster.Change for changes sake doesn't necessarily do anything. end neither does rebuilding, unless the new structure is better than the old.You can tear down a mansion and build a cottage, but it don't mean you made a better building.
so long to cut Chris Snee and or/Baas? Seems like no brainers. Could it be the are waiting to see if they can get Mack or Asamoah to agree on a contract before cutting ties. I could definitely see holding Baas for a June 1st cut to get an additional $4 mill but Chris Snee....?
I think that Eric may be the most superstitious fan
If Reese can fix the O-line and D-line most of the rest will fall into place.
Draft 2 O-line and one DE in first 5 rounds. Pick up 2 decent FA (not star)O-lineman. One of which who can play Center in case(probable) Baas gets injured.
We have the QB, WR's and Decent Defense to make it work in my opinion. Now if we can just get Perry to be a little creative on the blitz's.............
How did the Eagles prospects read at this point last year?
You mean before they changed their Coach and QB? Not great. But that's not a formula we're really interested in here, so it doesn't strike me as a great analogy.
Great write up. I believe it all starts at the OL. Build a wall around Eli and he will pick you apart. That and cut down on the turnovers and you can still have a playoff team, especially in this division.
is that if he is going to make a comeback from a bad 2013 season he is going to need a lot of time in the off-season and in training camp to break the bad habits he said he picked up last year and to re-learn what he was doing the year before.
But "will be back by the start of the 2014 season" sounds to me that he will be doing rehab until Sept. At the very least, we would need a backup during camp and probably for the first few games.
but the real wildcard for this team is, was 2013 an anomaly or has the CULTURE of this personnel taken a shite?
Last season, they played consistently poor fundamental football especially on offense. There was a listlessness, a lack of focus, what looked like a team that was consistently not prepared to play football.
Was that group tuning out the coaches? Burned out? Old and aging? Injured? Too comfortable with their roster spots?
Will a roster turnover of 20+ resolve these difficult to pinpoint details? We shall see, but a talent-deficient roster isn't the only hot issue in the mix and that's what concerns me most.
2 years to really be able to compete with the better teams. They have to do what they can, the best they can in 2014 and just endure another season of probably no playoffs.
I'd be surprised if they won the division in '14. I expect it by 2015.
I agree with everything you mentioned. My plan of action in the draft would depend on who is available in the 12 spot.
If the top 3 OTs, Mathews/Robinson/Kouandijo, are available then I would select 1 of them. If not then I will select who ever is the top prospect in these positions WR/CB/OLB/TE.
If an OT in the 1st then the bast available in positions WR/CB/OLB/TE.
If not then select the top OG in the 2nd round. Yankey, Richardson or Su'a-Filo should be available.
The important move is the 3rd round. I need the best C on the board. Either Swanson or Richburg would be great.
This would fix our OL and get great value on one of the other needs.
My dream draft would play out like this in the 1st 3 rounds.
1st - Barr/Mack OLB
2nd - Yankey OG
3rd - Swanson C
Then I would need Beatty to have a rebound year. Find another OG and have this line Beatty-Boothe?-Swanson-Yankey-Pugh.
I would also need JPP to get back into form.
Asking a lot from 2 players but that is what we need.
There is a lot of work to be done but its doable. They have better cap space and drafting position than usual.
One thing I think people are missing is although there are a ton of holes you don't need a star at every position. I think at 1 or 2 OL spots, TE, maybe WR, LB, CB, DL the majority of these holes can be filled with very reasonable bargain contracts.
So with an army of JAGs, 1-3 moderate to big FA signings, a solid draft class, and some serious upside potential already on roster (Eli, JPP, Randle, JJ, Hankins, Moore) I like the Giants chances at getting our hopes up, crushing them, and then somehow barely squeaking into the playoffs where anything can happen next year.
Perception: NYG was awesome in 08-- dynasty here we come
Perception: NYG was a sinking ship in 09
Perception: NYG was a mistake prone choking regime in 2010
Champs in 2011 -- perception was dynasty part 2 here we come....
We don't need to hit a hr on EVERY move this off season we just need to get more right than wrong. This isn't 2003.
reminds us again why the Nassib pick was a Luxury that we didnt need
we could have gotten Barrett Jones at that spot and have the #1 OC in the draft from the best College Oline , why Reese did this I cant understand
thank you Paulie.very well put
but haven't you read yesterday' post? Nassib is the best QB of the 2013 draft and we can get so much value for him ;)? What a joke. That was an absolutely moronic move
what the Nassib move turns out to be or not to be. He might end up Curtis PainterII, a trade chip that brings back a nice return or he tears up the League for the Giants 4 years down the road. You don't know and I dont know, but you say it often enough you start to believe you do know, but you dont
Man, I don't see that Eric and Colin/Go Terps are so incompatible...
I agree with almost everything Eric said except, he assessed fairly our situation. Yet I also agree that the possibility is there to turn things around quickly for us. I am optimistic about our chances even including this year. I am really looking forward to seeing what the front office can do to reload. They truly impressed me with how they addressed the DL on the cheap last year and how it rebounded so nicely, particularly against the run.
This team has shown that when they make something a priority they can do very well on that priority - for example, replacing Plax, fixing the run defense last year, etc.
I believe the OL will be fixed this year, and the staleness of the offense will be gone. Eli's play will improve and the offense will be more productive, particularly in the red zone.
Will everything else happen though? I am an optimist, so I'm hoping so. The realist side tempers me that of course, bad things happen more often than not, and a playoff spot is far from guaranteed.
this is what I have a clue of and that people like you HH
can't see because you have your head in the clouds fantasizing that other GMs are stupid and will trade a higher round pick for a 4th rounder who never plays:
Barrett Jones, Khalid Holmes and JC Tretter are all interior OLs who made their teams in 2013 and could have provided needed depth and possibly started at some point (especially Jones at C). All 3 were taken after Nassib. Holmes and Tretter went AFTER the #19 slot (where the Cards took OL Earl Watford)that the Giants traded AND gave up a 6th Rd pick. Oh, and LB Khaseem Greene went at #20. Any of them would have made more sense than trading up to take Nassib, who if they are lucky might bring back a 6th rounder someday.
to complain about Reese taking Nassib over Barrett Jones. Wells was the starting OC and when he was injured with 3 games remaining the Rams used Tim Barnes rather than Jones.If Wells doesn't get re-signed and Jones becomes the starter and plays well, then maybe you have a point, but not yet.
really good. You seem to consider OT,obviously,and WR in No. one draft choice. Unlike what is the majority opinion I would go WR, then OT in two and three.Manning is Manning, a good arm, great experience, but the league is going more and more to QB,s who are mobile as well as great passers.Unless Eli gets someone pretty spectacular to throw to, things don't look too promising.
...nice to hear about Beatty. But are you concerned at least just a little that we poured so much money in a guy who -- at times -- absolutely embarrassed himself out on the field last season. He looked dazed and confused, weak and worthless. Not a good situation for the guy we paid the big bucks to protect our franchise's blind side.
I'm of the opinion that certain linemen are good, but need to be protected a bit. Maybe Beatty's one of those guys, so Coughlin wouldn't put a Gabe Jackson next to him, because I've read and observed he also has nimble feet and balance to hold up in pass pro, but needs to be protected. In 2013 Beatty was left unprotected by a starting caliber Guard, so we witnessed lame plays like allowing his guy to take an inside route and pressure Eli when he had TE help lined up outside.
What worries me about Beatty in 2014 isn't his eventual full recovery and participation in camp, but how much of his off season strength and conditioning program will he short as he's rehabbing? His lower body needed substantial off season strength building, not rehab. So he may still need a big time day 1 caliber Guard next to him like Yankey, Martin or Su'a-Filo along with a great pass pro RB like Carlos Hyde to pick up his outside leakers. Add day 2 picks Weston Richburg or Marcus Marton at Center, and with a solid FA Guard pickup and versatile Boothe coming off the bench, that line should be good to go for 2014. JR's CAP hit for the starting rookie Guard, starting rookie Center, and Justin Pugh will be about $5M combined... or about what he'll pay in FA for just the starting Guard alone. Snee can retire, and Baas can be a June 1st casualty.
to hire his own HC and draft Eli's replacement (if not Nassib)? I'm of the opinion that he does. If he is buying the groceries, he should have the chance to choose the chef who is going to cook the meal the way he wants.
All wishful thinking... until FA it's really tough to settle in on a draft strategy. If JR picks up a top FA Guard and/or Center and/or shut down Corner and/or DE... one of those strange algorithms that focuses on Best Player Available and deemphasizes need, but need must be accounted for in the calculus. JR can't fix all his holes in FA, because that just bow waves the problems forward. The draft is key, and this draft class presents JR with a rare opportunity to really address this offensive line with seriously good players at a relatively minuscule CAP hit. If our O-line was even close to set, I'd be all for Justin Gilbert with the 12th, because I think a Prince-Gilbert tandem along with the best Safeties in the division hands down would shut down passing attacks. Alas, the offense is just too bad and in need of too much help.
Reese has had ample opportunity to replace TC if he so desired. After this amount of time, TC is no longer the HC Reese was stuck with. TC is now Reese's choice to be HC. More or less ditto for Eli.
this team is well past restocking for one more run
that's what it was when we won our last superbowl. Trying to squeeze another drop out of that lemon is an arguable strategy. At this point, it's rebuilding the team to where it can become competitive. That part is not really out of reach. building the team up to the point where it's in the upper echelon of competitive teams is almost always the goal of any of the competitive teams, and we're no where near that category.
building/planning for 'one more run' is a fools errand. The goal year after year should be building your team for a consistent multi year competitiveness. Very rare is the situation where one or two desperate moves will make or break a team (See Broncos/the other Manning for prime example). We are no where near that situation. Thus, you build for improving your team, with an eye to being better this year while allowing a situation for being able to make yourself better next year.
With rare exception, 3-4 year is the general time frame you spend on top anyway (an eternity in todays NFL), and that dovetails with Eli's life expectancy.
Chasing one run (if you're not already on top) is what teams like the Redskins do, and it's a losing proposition.
Fkap by one more run I don't think it neccessarily means next year
what year it is. Unless you have a core group (likely to be gone in a year or two) which can get you to the promised land, there is no aiming for one more run. We don't have that core group. All we have is a good QB who is aging. There are other pieces to the puzzle in place, but nobody you would say 'we have to win now or else the opportunity is lost'.
In our current situation 'one more run' is not even remotely in play. It's a situation of let's build a team that's competitive and sustainable, and will have us with the possibility of several runs.
Those calling it negative,look at this way,it could have been a whole lot worse.Didn't mention that the Giants seem to be in denial these days,about many different things.The talent on the team and Jerry Reese being two that come to mind,and you can't fix a problem if you don't think it exists.
and have discussions about what people think is the path for improvement for the team - but I'm always bothered by comments like this:
Quote:
Regardless of unforeseen factors or excuses, Senior Vice President and General Manager Jerry Reese miscalculated in 2012 and 2013. Reese believed that major components of the 2011 team would not have to be replaced quite so soon. He gambled he could postpone the inevitable transition by simply tweaking the roster, not tearing it up.
It bothers me because this idea that Reese "gambled" is a common blanket statement people make here without explaining specifically what he should have done differently.
I don't think Reese gambled. I think the majority of the moves Reese made following the 2011 championship season were pretty reasonable. Specifically with regards to the offensive line, going into the 2012 season the Giants had a promising young LT in Will Beatty, David Baas who was the highest rated free agent center when the Giants acquired him and had played well during the run up to SB46, Chris Snee who was coming off of a pro-bowl season, and then they acquired Sean Locklear through FA to give Diehl some competition at the RT position.
The starting offensive line going into 2012 wasn't as much of an area of concern as people view it in hindsight, and there were a number of young backup linemen on the roster to hold out hope that at least 1 or 2 of them would step up and maybe seize a more prominant role. This is the reason why Reese accordingly focused his attention on other areas of concern.
I don't get how Eric can say something like "regardless of unforseen factors and excuses" when there were just so many unforseen factors. Aside from the fact that not a single young Olinemen could successfully transition to becoming a difference-maker (Brewer, Herman, McCants, etc.), no one would have predicted that Beatty's performance would suffer as much as it did; that Baas would be a constant presence on the injured list; that Locklear would suffer a significant injury (after playing fairly well as a starter) and force the Giants to stick it out with Diehl; or that Chris Snee would suddenly fall off of the face of the planet. Even if Jerry Reese were somewhat of a wizard of a GM, and was able to predict most of this going into 2012, there were just way too many other holes to plug on this team - mainly on defense.
That being said, I think this team can recover this season. I think defensively the team is in a good spot, and can be solidified with just a few tweaks. The focus will be on the offense this offseason (it already is) and i think we'll see some significant and beneficial changes. A lot of people moaned over it, but it's looking like Justin Pugh was the right pick to make in the 1st round last year - as Eric pointed out, he's someone the Giants can build around. There's a lot of work that has to be done on the offensive line, but I think the draft and free agency is favorable towards that goal this year.At the very least, this will be Reese's most challenging/impactful offseason to date - and I think either way we'll end up finding out very soon how capable of a GM he really is.
We can challenge for the division given the state of the NFC East. But we're a long ways away from challenging the elite teams again unless Reese hits a home run this offseason.
Also:
Why shouldn't the team be anticipating the potential departure of a player at the point when his contract expires? Free agents get to decide where they play.
Hammer. If that were true, then the Giants should fire Coughlin and trade Eli. But they have made the decision that they two have one more run in them.
Struck home with me. The haters had no choice but to shut up after two Super Bowl wins, but they didn't go anywhere, they were just lurking.
I don't get the doubt about Eli..............physically he has lost nothing, did he just become a bad quarterback, or did it have something to do with a line that couldn't protect him long enough to run the trees this offense required.
Of course Reese should bank on Manning, to move on from him at this stage of his career would be a huge mistake.
As to the state of the Giants compared to so called contenders...it might look bleak at the moment, but the NFL changes quickly from year to year.
How did the Eagles prospects read at this point last year?
Fix the offensive line, that's not impossible, and let's see where this team is at the end of the season.
The mountain to climb is not nearly as high as it used to be. If you're competent at GM, HC, and QB you are in the running to win the Super Bowl.
We just saw the Seahawks win the Super Bowl. The Seahawks. I'd argue there are more potential champs in 2014 than not. We are in that group. Just hope the injury roulette wheel falls favorably for us.
Ugh.
As I re-read your analysis, I kept coming back to something that occurred to the Giants maybe a little before your time.
There was a very ugly 2-part stretch by the Giants pre- and post-Fran Tarkenton (1964 - 1966) & (1972 - 1980). While various facets of the squad had their ugly stretches over that 12-year period, there was one area in particular (outside of QB) that really stands out in my mind:
A VERY BAD OFFENSIVE LINE!
Jerry Reese needs to focus on the O-line. The longer that problem drags out, the more likely the current Giants will resemble that mess from the 60s and 70s.
But there are structural problems at a lot of key positions. You'd be hard pressed to find a team that can replace four starters on the OL in one offseason for example. Somehow they have to replace Nicks' 2010-2011 production. DE and CB is in a serious transition mode. Who is the starting TE and RB?
I don't know that it was a mistake to retain him regardless. In my opinion, you have to determine whether there was someone else who was available that would have represented some kind of upgrade. Looking over the coaches available I'm not sure that coach was there for them this year.
I come from the camp that says keep your coach unless you are sure you can improve him. Otherwise you are going backward.
All in all, I really agree with everything you wrote and enjoyed the write-up. Thanks!
That's pretty god awful. This draft and free agency will be key in bringing more talent to surround Eli.
They can build around Manning, Pugh, Cruz, Randle, Jernigan, and Conner.
I don't buy the Giants drafted Hankins because they thought Joseph may walk, if they did that than they were under delusions about the strength of their overall roster last year.
It's time to build, not put together a team that is a 8-8 or 9-7 team next year to save front office jobs...changing three assistants is nice but is it just an attempt to cover up past drafting errors...we will see.
Generally not a pessimist, but I not seeing a recognition yet of how talent thin this team is.
Well, it is likely we will underperform given the same set of players in 2014. Do we then decide to replace Coach x, who is not as good a coach as Tommy C.? If so, why not just hang on to Coach C. an extra year?
In other words, while it would seem best to just replace Coughlin sooner than later if you're going to replace him at all (and I agree with that logic), it is first dependent on there being a top coach available - one you want to build your program around. Was there a top coach around this year that we could've signed? That's a separate topic for debate.
Again, really liked what you wrote, only took issue with that one perspective. Think about it, maybe you'll come around to seeing it my way.
Or not.
But man, if they want to get away from seasons being ruined by injury (which happens a lot to them), they need to start getting rid of the aging and injury-prone guys.
Manning - $20 million
Snee, Beatty, Baas - $27 million
Rolle - $9 million
Kiwanuka - $7 million
mode to about 50 yards. That's a respectable outing. On offense they had nothing to fight back with.
Second, hopefully the new OC has a plan. Don't see how such a hot commodity from such a perennial offensively elite team cannot help the Giants.
Third, run game - pass game - it all depends on what happens with the OL. The Giants had about 7 games where they rushed for 70 yards or less - that's barely a decent half of football. There were few holes to run thru and Eli had little time. The OL was arguably one of the worst in the league. Based on last year's performance - most of the players should be discarded.
Eric - I seriously doubt JR or the Maras and Co. will risk this season on the health of Snee and Baas. What do they have to work with - Pugh? But a few others can help. Cordle was improving and playing fairly well so hopefully he can be at least a stop gap at Center. It would help if one of the reserves could help and perhaps Mosley is the best suited to do that. Brewer was disappointing. Boothe played poorly last year - hopefully that was partially due to the inconsistency caused unit cohesion a side effect of the injuries. Bottom line - OL should be the pick in round 1.
But setting the draft aside for now - JR needs to do for the OLine what he did for the DLine last year. Bring in some players 28 or older who can provide solid, B+ play (and on occasion better) for the duration of the season. Not an impossible feat. So, the first step will be to see what JR does for the OL in FA. If he screws that up - I doubt he can compensate for it in the draft.
WRs - We have Cruz, Jernigan, and Randle - we could do a lot worse than that corps of receivers. Again, this is another area where JR can really help the team by picking up one B+ player in FA. In fact, give a respectable level of talent on hand - a B or C+ player and some new offensive ideas could be sufficient.
TE - who the hell knows what we have there. Robinson cannot stay healthy and then there is Fells. The one thing that gives me cause for optimism is that the new OC seems to know how to get significant production from the TE position.
But, it all starts with the OL. My projection for this year will depend on which OL JR picks up as a FA - he cannot fix that mess thru the draft alone. If he fails - TC's a goner, IMO. That line "he can coach as long as he wants to" is one of the more foolish things I have read on this site. This year looks anything like last year and not significantly better - TC's gone.
Defense - Moore has done okay and will play better. Tuck will probably move on. JPP will return to form so they will need to add to the rotation. CB is the real pressing need here. Keeping Joseph and finding an "off-the-field" brain for Will "the strawman" Hill would be very beneficial for the team's future.
2. They need Beatty, Bass or Snee, JPP and a few of the recent draft picks to contribute. If the cupboard is as bare as it looked at the end of last season, the Giants are in for an extended rebuilding period. You can't consistently miss on draft picks and expect to be decent.
Defensively, the key is keeping our own(Beason and Joseph) and getting a threat at DE. That threat could be Moore(I can't possibly know if it is), a FA acquisition or a 2014 draft pick. My opinion on upgrading the DE position would depend on how much money we have and who we like in the draft(I can't possibly know the answers to these either). Re-sign Beason, LJ, find a capable CB2 and our defense is also plenty good enough to win.
We know that this coach and QB has what it takes to win. Retool both lines and we are contenders. A brand new offensive system/coaches should help as well.
Lets look at the flip side here. Lets say he caught 12 td passes, gained 1250 yds receiving last year. Would the Giants have given him a big contract OR would Reese have told him he had a nice year..franchised him for 2014, and said lets see if you can do it again. I'm thinking he was very careful this year and intends to gamble with being a free agent in hopes of landing a better deal. Does this make any sense?
But if they wanted to they could extend Eli and Rolle whilst still taking their medicine on Kiwi and Baas and spend all the $ on the OL in free agency. Get a new OG and OC of quality. Bring back Boothe and Cordle. Draft an OT to challenge Beatty. Fix that OL and things will suddenly look much better.
The D will be alright, as long as they bring Rolle and Beason back. I'd try to bring Tuck back too. The major factor will be can JPP return to form. Upgrades will be tough but the major need will be at CB.
But again, we may need to replace 4/5ths of the OL, we need a starting TE, we need a starting RB. The good news is we have the QB and some receivers. But Reese hasn't replaced a lot of guys who have left. And to be brutally honestly, he got real lucky with Victor Cruz. That was a gift from the gods.
On defense, things could fall apart pretty quickly unless JPP rebounds and Moore comes on. If Amukamara gets hurt...
Good QB play helped Denver. They went from Tebowmania to an immortal all time great QB.
You need to draft very well and bring in key FA to the mix like seattle did with Michael B, the DE.
We are not in that tier. We have holes everywhere. We will need to hit a home run in this years draft and perhaps next year, as well as , stay healthy and bring in key FA.
Let's hope it doesn't take 2 years or more for everyone to learn the scheme and it be successful. I don't think we are close at all.
I think we need favorable conditions or variables such as excellent drafting, production from our draft classes, and key free agents to make noise.
The Giants got value out of Nicks, he's due a big pay day. Replacing guys like Nicks with lower cost value than what he's due to get elsewhere is part of rebuilding.
First and foremost they still have Eli Manning. With a new West Coast style offense, I think he will be able to mask some of their deficiencies on offense, much like his brother did in Denver, to a lesser degree. Second, this defense took on a whole new look with beason at MLB and that started from day one of his tenure. The combination of an improving D and Weatherford at P (assuming a bounce back year) is a good combo most weeks to give the Giants an excellent shot as long as they limit turnovers.
The point I'm making is that only got two good years out of a #1 pick.
They had 8 draft picks that year. But Walsh and his staff saw how deep the class was and concluded that they need more picks as their team was transitioning from the early 80's squad to a younger group.
What they did was used their 8 picks and leveraged them into 14, completely restock the roster and somehow came out with 8 starters who became key players for them.
Giants find themselves in a similar spot now. Manning at $20 million is not going anywhere barring a complete meltdown. $46 million is in 5 other players. So the only way around this is drafting and (hopefully) develop a sizable contingent of "quality cheap labor"
Can the Giants turn their 6 picks into, let's say, 9 or 10? If this is truly the deepest class in the last 10 years, then let's get enough labor on the team as possible.
I know we are fixated at picking at #12. But seeing all of the problems as you mentioned in the story, we need bodies....a lot of them.
I'd be surprised if Coughlin completely changes his concepts so I'm guessing it will be a mixture. Green Bay can get pretty vertical too.
But we'll have to see if Eli is adept at throwing to backs and tight ends.
For starters my take on the past season was that the real culprit in the 7-9 season (and certainly the real culprit in the 0-6 start that ultimately doomed the season) were the turnovers almost all of which were unforced and rather ad hoc. Hard to imagine that the Giants will be -16 through the season next year and already you are much better off.
And clearly the Giants have some personnel issues, but they also have most of the core positions covered. They have their QB. Obviously Eli has to play better (and if he doesn't the Giants could very well find themselves a whole lot closer to square one). But he obviously can play better (and its hard not to make the case that just an average Eli year - 62-63%; 25 TDs; 16 INTs and the Giants very likely would have made the playoffs last season) and is still basically a young guy by NFL QB standards. Hopefully he gets rejuvenated in 2014 like Rivers last year with a fresh start in a more QB friendly scheme. The Giants also have the makings of a pretty receiver group even without Nicks. Cruz is one of the best in the league and Randle and Jernigan have some potential. Add in a WR in the first or second round this May (and maybe even a second in the middle rounds) in this year's very talented receiver class and the receivers should be more than solid.
Obviously the offensive line has to be rebuilt, but the good news is that unlike QB, and to a lesser extent WR, you don't need star players on the OL. What you need are solid players who know what they are doing ans those kind of guys can almost always be found in FA at a reasonable price. In fact, come June 2 there will very likely be as many as a couple of dozen solid veteran OL out there literally begging for a job. In fact, it would not surprise me if the Giants went out and signed as many as 3-4 vet OL between March 11 and the opening of training camp. The Giants also need some upgrading at both RB and TE but you can win with JAGs (just a guy) at those positions and again there are always JAGs available in FA and the later draft rounds at those positions, although it not surprise me if the Giants used a top pick on either or both positions this May if there is a guy there they really felt was more than just a JAG.
I have made the case in other venues that with all the doom and gloom in Giants-land that the major improvement in the defense has been kind of glossed over. This year's Giants had a lot of guys who swarmed to the ball, tackled well and generally didn't make many mistakes. And the improvement came without much of a pass rush at least until very late in the year. In fact, I would guess that if you asked someone like Jerry Reese what was the Giants biggest need to get back to a championship level (as opposed maybe to fixing what went wrong in 2013) the answer would be a rejuvenated pass rush. And again the Giants have a pretty good starting point in JPP who has the talent to be a DPOY if he's finally healthy again. Again, though if 2011 turns out to be a mirage for JPP then it would be back to the drawing board on that side of the ball, but right now he's an awfully good starting point. The other DE however remains a sticking point (and I would argue is the Giants real biggest need heading into the off-season) but its not a particularly strong position in the draft and decent edge rushing FA DEs can be pricey.
Bottom line is that there are a lot IFs with the Giants, but that's pretty much the case with every team in the league. The core remains pretty solid, although needless to say stars like Eli and JPP have to play much better, while most of the problem areas involve the role positions which generally are easier to fix than the core group.
Okay, fine. How much do you want to spend to keep him?
To me though it screams TRADE DOWN!
My pessimism is wrapped up and packaged tight in the knowledge that our O-line is bad all over. Bad as in an NFL Bottom 3!
Just dunno how they gets fixed in one season???
This is the thing about the off-season. It's very easy to say, 'Eli is going to bounce back, Jernigan and Randle are going to get better, etc"..But that's really being overly optimistic and, honestly, looking through blue colored glasses.
We would hope that's the case and may seem likely, but as a GM, you have to plan for the worse. I give the chances of Eli having a solid season much more higher than Randle or jernigan "breaking out"..As i give the chances of Moore breaking out or Hankins for that matter. Relying on rookies and players who have shown a flash will get you fired.
i seriously doubt Reese is going to sign some young, good OL in FA because 1) they can't afford it and 2) he' s not going to give up on HIS draft picks. That will be conceding he made mistakes and that is bad for a GM..
I suspect he will sign 1 or 2 veteran OL to go with a one in the draft. They definitely need to draft a DE because Tuck and Kiwi are not long term and you're not sure the status of JPP..Another vet corner in FA or in the draft won't hurt either..
Biggest problem is, lots of teams has lots of money..The Giants might have to wait until the second wave of the FA period to get what' s left. And redoing Eli's contract is not an option because it will still cost more money in the end and will handicap the team in the future..Mara has said that a few times..
A GM in Reese's shoes refuses to look at younger FAs along the OL because of loyalty to the likes of Moseley and unwillingness to admit previous mistakes is a bad GM. Not one that does.
They'll restructure and extend Rolle and even Eli as necessary..Optimus and other cap experts have stated many times that this is more than doable..
We'll know in a few weeks..
Regardless of what Optimus or cap experts on BBI say (no offense to them), being doable is one thing. The ownership wanting to do it and knowing it will cost them more money to redo (see Bass and Kiwi), will give them pause..
BTW, we we went and signed Canty and Boley, they had a lot more money and less holes to fill..It would be dumb (imo) to just let LJ go to sign some young OL in FA..just looking at the Ol FA market, the top guys are going to command about 8 - 10M a year..
Huge, huge offseason for JR.
That said, Reese won't use 2 of his top 3 picks on the OL. I'll bet Randy's left nut Reese gets a starting OG in the draft.And, he'll get another starting OG in free agency. The key is OC. Baas,Boothe,Cordle or Snee( I hope he saves his body and retires), but hopefully someone else.
IMO, a cornerstone of any good defense begins with an offensive line that can control the LOS.
Without a good O-line, a team surrenders the entire tempo of the game. And when the tempo goes, bad things happen.
Real bad.
Like the 2013 New York Giants.
"You can actually get 2 immediate OL starters this year through round 3 or 4."
I guess that all depends on how many teams are jones-ing for offensive line talent.
For our sake, it better not be too many. We need more talent along the front than just about any team in the NFL. That's starting quality and backup quality.
I see Reese going O-line twice in the first 3 rounds. Unless, of course, he makes a major splash in free agency.
There's a long list of Giants free agents that Reese has to deal with. No need to blow up the whole thing, but sometimes it's just best to begin the process by asking the question - "What have you done for me lately ?" .
If the answer is negative - "sorry, you have to go"
OL - We don't need 4 new starters
Beatty's fx does not involve a joint (his knee)
He was bad last year, but I think he returns to 2012 level
One of Baas, Snee, Cordle, Mosley will start
Regardless, a big ticket FA, 2 more JAG FAs and 1-2 Draft picks is likely and very do-able
TE - Mid-tier guy and Robinson and/or Donnell emerge and we are fine
RB - Wilson could be back
Regardless - 3rd or 4th round RB and a mid tier vet and we are fine
Beatty injury/surgery - ( New Window )
Does anyone actually think Snee and Baas would accept huge pay cuts for next season? Yet I hear guys thinking maybe they can play one more season? If these guys are not cut and don't take a huge pay cut, where is all this cap room going to come from?
Based on the state of the draft/FAcy moves this front office has made over the last 3-4 seasons. it's just hard to imagine a complete turnaround on their part.....
: )
but yet, Reese totally thought going into last year....they were talented enough to put a Super Bowl clock in their locker room, which turned out to be a terrible mistake....
we were certainly broken last year....and am amazed by the New England Patriots who I felt had far less talent then us but yet made to a game from the Super Bowl.
I understand why we could be considered the worse OL in football....but with Pugh...a healthy Baas and Snee and a refocused Beatty and some added talented....we could be most improved.
Our TE are the worse.....or the most unproven? who really knows....
bottom line is that it is never as bad, nor as good......
the Giant need to be active, successful....certainly can not coast this year with false expectation.
with a little luck.....we won't be the most talented....but that is ok.... we weren't in 1990, 2007, 2011 either.
Beatty was good enough to earn that contract
Maybe he'll show why going forward
We really need him to
Here's the difference. Eric says what needs to be said, but he says it with a heavy heart because he's a Giants fan.
You revel in the misery because you're not.
Nice guys, too, but at this time, they'll just get in the way.
I know, realistically, it takes time for offensive lines to jell, but there are examples of pieces thrown together, that worked - the Ravens' Superbowl team's O-line of 2013 is the latest example. It can be done.
The best asset the O-line has is Pugh. Second-best is Beatty, he MUST come back healthy and knock off the cobwebs for the team to do well.
It's going to be really hard to replace three linemen in one year, so realistically we need to get one more year out of Boothe at left guard.
That leaves two positions to fill, for sure this year - right guard and center.
Had he just played "OK" in the first year of his new contract, then we could all hang out hats on him and Pugh and just focus on three interior linemen.
But, nooooooooooooooo, Beatty went south when we could least afford it. His position; his play; and his health are all now part of an incredibly difficult calculus that Jerry Reese needs to figure out.
It ain't gonna be easy.
Jerry Reese: Sharpen your pencil. The time is NOW. You need to answer a question you've been avoiding for 2-3 years now.
(Half kidding, but only half.)
clock this summer?
Damon, I am with you on this.
Beatty will go into his 6th NFL season in 2014 having had only 1 good year on his resume to speak of.
There is no evidence of consistent NFL play from him to suggest he will revert back to the one (and only one) good season he has had in his career.
If he can return and be a productive member of the team, great. But I would not draw up my plans for 2014 around him.
Draft 2 O-line and one DE in first 5 rounds. Pick up 2 decent FA (not star)O-lineman. One of which who can play Center in case(probable) Baas gets injured.
We have the QB, WR's and Decent Defense to make it work in my opinion. Now if we can just get Perry to be a little creative on the blitz's.............
we could have gotten Barrett Jones at that spot and have the #1 OC in the draft from the best College Oline , why Reese did this I cant understand
How did the Eagles prospects read at this point last year?
You mean before they changed their Coach and QB? Not great. But that's not a formula we're really interested in here, so it doesn't strike me as a great analogy.
But "will be back by the start of the 2014 season" sounds to me that he will be doing rehab until Sept. At the very least, we would need a backup during camp and probably for the first few games.
Last season, they played consistently poor fundamental football especially on offense. There was a listlessness, a lack of focus, what looked like a team that was consistently not prepared to play football.
Was that group tuning out the coaches? Burned out? Old and aging? Injured? Too comfortable with their roster spots?
Will a roster turnover of 20+ resolve these difficult to pinpoint details? We shall see, but a talent-deficient roster isn't the only hot issue in the mix and that's what concerns me most.
I'd be surprised if they won the division in '14. I expect it by 2015.
If the top 3 OTs, Mathews/Robinson/Kouandijo, are available then I would select 1 of them. If not then I will select who ever is the top prospect in these positions WR/CB/OLB/TE.
If an OT in the 1st then the bast available in positions WR/CB/OLB/TE.
If not then select the top OG in the 2nd round. Yankey, Richardson or Su'a-Filo should be available.
The important move is the 3rd round. I need the best C on the board. Either Swanson or Richburg would be great.
This would fix our OL and get great value on one of the other needs.
My dream draft would play out like this in the 1st 3 rounds.
1st - Barr/Mack OLB
2nd - Yankey OG
3rd - Swanson C
Then I would need Beatty to have a rebound year. Find another OG and have this line Beatty-Boothe?-Swanson-Yankey-Pugh.
I would also need JPP to get back into form.
Asking a lot from 2 players but that is what we need.
One thing I think people are missing is although there are a ton of holes you don't need a star at every position. I think at 1 or 2 OL spots, TE, maybe WR, LB, CB, DL the majority of these holes can be filled with very reasonable bargain contracts.
So with an army of JAGs, 1-3 moderate to big FA signings, a solid draft class, and some serious upside potential already on roster (Eli, JPP, Randle, JJ, Hankins, Moore) I like the Giants chances at getting our hopes up, crushing them, and then somehow barely squeaking into the playoffs where anything can happen next year.
Perception: NYG was awesome in 08-- dynasty here we come
Perception: NYG was a sinking ship in 09
Perception: NYG was a mistake prone choking regime in 2010
Champs in 2011 -- perception was dynasty part 2 here we come....
We don't need to hit a hr on EVERY move this off season we just need to get more right than wrong. This isn't 2003.
Well Done!
we could have gotten Barrett Jones at that spot and have the #1 OC in the draft from the best College Oline , why Reese did this I cant understand
thank you Paulie.very well put
but haven't you read yesterday' post? Nassib is the best QB of the 2013 draft and we can get so much value for him ;)? What a joke. That was an absolutely moronic move
This team has shown that when they make something a priority they can do very well on that priority - for example, replacing Plax, fixing the run defense last year, etc.
I believe the OL will be fixed this year, and the staleness of the offense will be gone. Eli's play will improve and the offense will be more productive, particularly in the red zone.
Will everything else happen though? I am an optimist, so I'm hoping so. The realist side tempers me that of course, bad things happen more often than not, and a playoff spot is far from guaranteed.
Barrett Jones, Khalid Holmes and JC Tretter are all interior OLs who made their teams in 2013 and could have provided needed depth and possibly started at some point (especially Jones at C). All 3 were taken after Nassib. Holmes and Tretter went AFTER the #19 slot (where the Cards took OL Earl Watford)that the Giants traded AND gave up a 6th Rd pick. Oh, and LB Khaseem Greene went at #20. Any of them would have made more sense than trading up to take Nassib, who if they are lucky might bring back a 6th rounder someday.
I'm of the opinion that certain linemen are good, but need to be protected a bit. Maybe Beatty's one of those guys, so Coughlin wouldn't put a Gabe Jackson next to him, because I've read and observed he also has nimble feet and balance to hold up in pass pro, but needs to be protected. In 2013 Beatty was left unprotected by a starting caliber Guard, so we witnessed lame plays like allowing his guy to take an inside route and pressure Eli when he had TE help lined up outside.
What worries me about Beatty in 2014 isn't his eventual full recovery and participation in camp, but how much of his off season strength and conditioning program will he short as he's rehabbing? His lower body needed substantial off season strength building, not rehab. So he may still need a big time day 1 caliber Guard next to him like Yankey, Martin or Su'a-Filo along with a great pass pro RB like Carlos Hyde to pick up his outside leakers. Add day 2 picks Weston Richburg or Marcus Marton at Center, and with a solid FA Guard pickup and versatile Boothe coming off the bench, that line should be good to go for 2014. JR's CAP hit for the starting rookie Guard, starting rookie Center, and Justin Pugh will be about $5M combined... or about what he'll pay in FA for just the starting Guard alone. Snee can retire, and Baas can be a June 1st casualty.
All wishful thinking... until FA it's really tough to settle in on a draft strategy. If JR picks up a top FA Guard and/or Center and/or shut down Corner and/or DE... one of those strange algorithms that focuses on Best Player Available and deemphasizes need, but need must be accounted for in the calculus. JR can't fix all his holes in FA, because that just bow waves the problems forward. The draft is key, and this draft class presents JR with a rare opportunity to really address this offensive line with seriously good players at a relatively minuscule CAP hit. If our O-line was even close to set, I'd be all for Justin Gilbert with the 12th, because I think a Prince-Gilbert tandem along with the best Safeties in the division hands down would shut down passing attacks. Alas, the offense is just too bad and in need of too much help.
building/planning for 'one more run' is a fools errand. The goal year after year should be building your team for a consistent multi year competitiveness. Very rare is the situation where one or two desperate moves will make or break a team (See Broncos/the other Manning for prime example). We are no where near that situation. Thus, you build for improving your team, with an eye to being better this year while allowing a situation for being able to make yourself better next year.
With rare exception, 3-4 year is the general time frame you spend on top anyway (an eternity in todays NFL), and that dovetails with Eli's life expectancy.
Chasing one run (if you're not already on top) is what teams like the Redskins do, and it's a losing proposition.
In our current situation 'one more run' is not even remotely in play. It's a situation of let's build a team that's competitive and sustainable, and will have us with the possibility of several runs.
I don't think Reese gambled. I think the majority of the moves Reese made following the 2011 championship season were pretty reasonable. Specifically with regards to the offensive line, going into the 2012 season the Giants had a promising young LT in Will Beatty, David Baas who was the highest rated free agent center when the Giants acquired him and had played well during the run up to SB46, Chris Snee who was coming off of a pro-bowl season, and then they acquired Sean Locklear through FA to give Diehl some competition at the RT position.
The starting offensive line going into 2012 wasn't as much of an area of concern as people view it in hindsight, and there were a number of young backup linemen on the roster to hold out hope that at least 1 or 2 of them would step up and maybe seize a more prominant role. This is the reason why Reese accordingly focused his attention on other areas of concern.
I don't get how Eric can say something like "regardless of unforseen factors and excuses" when there were just so many unforseen factors. Aside from the fact that not a single young Olinemen could successfully transition to becoming a difference-maker (Brewer, Herman, McCants, etc.), no one would have predicted that Beatty's performance would suffer as much as it did; that Baas would be a constant presence on the injured list; that Locklear would suffer a significant injury (after playing fairly well as a starter) and force the Giants to stick it out with Diehl; or that Chris Snee would suddenly fall off of the face of the planet. Even if Jerry Reese were somewhat of a wizard of a GM, and was able to predict most of this going into 2012, there were just way too many other holes to plug on this team - mainly on defense.
That being said, I think this team can recover this season. I think defensively the team is in a good spot, and can be solidified with just a few tweaks. The focus will be on the offense this offseason (it already is) and i think we'll see some significant and beneficial changes. A lot of people moaned over it, but it's looking like Justin Pugh was the right pick to make in the 1st round last year - as Eric pointed out, he's someone the Giants can build around. There's a lot of work that has to be done on the offensive line, but I think the draft and free agency is favorable towards that goal this year.At the very least, this will be Reese's most challenging/impactful offseason to date - and I think either way we'll end up finding out very soon how capable of a GM he really is.