Morning guys: With still way too long to go until the draft and not much going really did some serious esoteric thinking - or at least as serious as esoteric football thinking can be - after doing the latest GBN mock earlier in the week. For anyone that missed it we had the Giants selecting Pitt DT Aaron Donald with the 12th pick to mixed reviews. 'In the end' we went with Donald who we felt had the most upside of the players available. Fact is, though, nobody really knows what the Giants are thinking at this point and one could make a pretty case for half a dozen guys at that point in the draft. That got us thinking a little about the Giants track record regarding BPA versus so-called need picks.
And what one sees if one looks back over the past 10-15 years is that there have been years when the Giants did go into the draft focusing. In 2001, for example, they were after corners; in 2003, defensive linemen; 2007, back to the secondary and in 2009 wide receiver. There were also a couple of years when a BPA at a position they really weren't focused on - Kiwi in 2006 and Prince in 2011 - was there for the taking.
What is a little surprising when one really thinks about it, though, is that in fact in most years it appears that they go into the opening round pretty much focused on a particular player. Think about it; Shockey in 2002, Eli in 2004, Sinorice Moss in 2006 (hey, nobody gets it right every year); Kenny Phillips in 2008, and JPP in 2010. And even in the past couple of year, we had certainly heard before the draft that David Wilson and then Pugh were the guys they were looking at. In some cases like Shockey, Eli and JPP those guys were simply potential impact players that the Giants really liked. In others, like Pugh last year, its likely that there was something of a need factor, although I would suggest it was more along the lines of trying to accomplish a particular goal - in this case bringing in a guy with LT pass blocking ability to play RT - rather than simply looking for best OL out there to upgrade the unit.
So what does all this mean for 2014. On the one hand, despite the fact the Giants have a number of areas that need work, we just don't see one positional area that the Giants are likely to head into the draft focused on. And that includes the OL which clearly needs work but we just don't see anything that would suggest that the Giants won't do anything different than what they have done over the past two decades and that is use free agency to fill gaps up front, especially given that it appears they will actually have some cap space to work with for what seems like the first time in our lifetimes.
And in a draft which looks like it will have 9-10 blue chip players, picking 12th means one is always hoping that one of those blue chippers to you. Certainly the Giants would be thrilled if a Mike Evans or Jake Matthews was available when they get on the clock, although its also likely no one is holding their breath.
At the same time, if the Giants do go into the draft looking at one particular player, one could again make the case for a number of different players including Donald, CB Justin Gilbert, G/T Zack Martin and possibly even a Kony Ealy, we wouldn't be surprised if it were TE Eric Ebron.
We made the case some weeks ago that if we channeled our inner Ben MAdoo, if asked what the one thing we would want to make the Giants offense special (again as opposed to just fixing something that any idiot can see needs fixing) he'd likely answer a TE that can run, that can stretch defenses and will force other teams to cover him with a DB. In fact, once you force the other team to cover the TE with a DB, you really force the defense to start scrambling and adjusting. If they try to use a regular safety they lose much of their ability to double on the wideouts and/or take away the deep zones. On the other hand if they go with an extra DB, they have to take out a LB which likely will do more for your run game than any blocking TE could ever do.
And while Ebron didn't exactly blow up the combine, he is still a special athlete who will cause opposing defenses headaches if he plays to his physical ability (always the $64K with draft picks). In fact, the Giants may have caught a break when Ebron appeared to pull up with a tweaked hammy in the fianal strides of his combine 40,otherwise he may very well have finished in the 4.55 area which just might have had teams like Tampa and Buffalo with the 7th and 9th picks respectively paying more attention.
The other question we also suspect the Giants ask themselves with their early picks and that is 'what can they get with the pick that we can't get elsewhere either in later rounds or free agency'. And the two guys in this draft that are likely to be available to the Giants pick at #12 which bring to the table stuff they won't get in later rounds or free agency are the aforementioned Donald and Ebron. Sure its possible they could get an Amaro or Niklas in the second round who have the potential to be useful players that could be worked into the offense, however, neither has that special athleticism that is going to force opposing teams to change their game plans that an Ebron could (again if he plays to his potential).
Long way to go though. hang in there guys!!!
It's amazing that a pulled hammy affecting 40 time could possibly cause TB and Buffalo to look elsewhere. One would think, what matters most(by a wide margin) would be his body of work through his career
That said, I really feel like we will see one of Ebron, Evans, Dennard/Gilbert, Donald at #12.
What are your thoughts on the Dennard/Gilbert comparison? Who do you personally like more? It seems like during the actual football season Dennard was everyone's favorite corner and as the evaluation process has gotten underway Gilbert has made up some ground. Personally, I love Dennard. What do you think?
A couple thoughts though:
Moss wasn't initial round.
Basically what you're saying is the Giants will focus on a specific need unless a guy they didn't expect to still be available is available and the value is viewed as too great to pass up.
That's almost to a T what Reese says.
The Giants took players and you cite Shockey, JPP, and Pugh.
But those were huge areas of need. Strahan hadn't been replaced and Kiwi had a severe injury. The Giants had no TE when Shockey was selected. Pugh was an obvious choice.
What we (or I) don't know is if another OT were available like a Lane Johnson would the Giants still have selected Pugh? If not, then your theory about selecting players, is really one of selecting the best player available at a position of need.
which is how Reese describes his draft philosophy.
It really does depend on FA and shoring up the interior Oline and possibly CB. Things will get clearer in two weeks.
I could see Evans, Ebron, Lewan or my personal favorite Zack Martin at 12. I think TE may well depend on what McAdoo sees in Adrien Robinson. I don't expect to see big splashes in FA as JR has already said he's looking in the second or third wave.
But his bullet points were generally on target(no pun intended).
Come April 1, we'll have a good idea where the focus will be.
Draftwise, I believe that if there is much movement, i.e. 2-3 trades),in the first 11 picks, JR is going to get a trade request.
I know its a deep draft, but somebody 13-18, will panic and make an offer.
In the Reese Era...Ross was a "need" pick. So was Phillips. Ditto for Nicks, Wilson, and Pugh. That's five out of seven first-round picks that were clearly "need" picks. It might have been six out of seven, but the 2011 draft was screwed up because of the lockout, and the fact that free agency didn't begin until after the draft. In any other year, Prince does not fall to us.
I think the choice will be Lewan, Gilbert, or Martin unless someone falls unexpectedly. Any of those three is likely to have a year one impact. They can't afford a "project" this year. Possibly Evans if they really love him.
Depends on Free Agency of course
OL - Lewan will be hard to pass up, Martin is a solid choice. I don't think we will take an OL #12 if we sign a quality tackle in FA - we might take a guard or a center in round 2 or 3. (Jackson, the USC guys, the Stanford kid, Richardson)
DB - Dennard or Gilbert (Hard to pass on Gilbert). I don't think we will take a DB if we sign a high quality DB in FA. Again maybe in round two or 3. (Fuller, Desir, others)
LB - Mack is unlikely to fall not excited about Barr re risk/reward. I don't think we will take an LB unless Mack is there. There are a couple that project in round 2 or 3.
TE - Ebron, but I think there are others they can get later. Recent TE drafted (Fleener, Ertz, etc...) have not had a big impact as rookies. We need an imediate impact at #12.
WR - Watkins not likely to be there, not sold on Evans there are others they can get later. There are lots of good receivers in the pool. If we fix both OL and DB in FA then we could go this way.
DL - Donald is a player, not sure risk reward on Ealy at #12
We can get by with Hankins, Jenkins, Patterson, and a reasonable FA. Not sure Donald would have a year one impact (Hankins and Joseph did not)
Pugh
Wilson
Amukamara
Nicks
Ross
etc.
All these guy were drafted to address majors holes in the roster. Possibly JPP was a minor exception. But they almost always use there first round pick on one of the top needed positions for that year.
You can certainly argue that TE is one of the top positions of need this year and the Giants could finally pick one high again.
Accorsi, Marv Sunderland, Fasshole
Accorsi, Reese, coughlin
2007: Reese, Reese, and Coughlin
2009 onwards: Reese, Ross, Coughlin
So way of drafting has changed especially when Reese took over the Director of College Scouting position. I posted that article many times on BBI.
While I wouldn't throw the remote, I'd have to shake my head at the pick.
Link - ( New Window )
Colin has presented another one.
In odd numbered years, the Giants focus the draft by concentrating on upgrading one position. In even numbered years, the Giants focus on a particular player for the number 1 pick. In 2012, they wanted the other guy but picked Wilson anyway.
So this year, we just need to find the Insider who knows who they are focusing on and we can stop speculating.
While I wouldn't throw the remote, I'd have to shake my head at the pick.
Uh, you won't be "shaking your head" if LJ punches out.
Colin has presented another one.
In odd numbered years, the Giants focus the draft by concentrating on upgrading one position. In even numbered years, the Giants focus on a particular player for the number 1 pick. In 2012, they wanted the other guy but picked Wilson anyway.
So this year, we just need to find the Insider who knows who they are focusing on and we can stop speculating.
jupiter it is a well known fact that the Giants wanted Wilson all along, over Martin. Eric knew the pick early in the draft and was told by ?Pat Hanlon? who it would be. He told he knew what it was but could not reveal it.
That draft still pisses me off. They were 100% oiff on Moss and Kiwi has never been anything other than a journeyman type at best who has had a few teasing flashes. To this day I still remember screaming DeMeco Ryans when they grabbed Kiwi. Then they fell in love with a guy who was pedestrian at best at UM. Kind of confusing still
Game Review: Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants, November 3, 1996 - ( New Window )
Ebron is a special player, he can line up just about anywhere. I see him being very similar to Vernon Davis. A wr in a te body, kid can take it up the seam and out run cbs and safetys. thats very dangerous, and looks to be like a dynamic that would really open up thenpassing game of this offense more than any other player outside of Watkins. Given he was also a giant fan growing up, a proven dedicated player, you have to figure he would play his heart out here.
Donald would help this DL and def, as a whole. We haven't really had a penetrator from the DT pos. since Coefield, and he doesnt have rhe potential Donald does. Donald has burst, and is going to command double teams. This would free up Hankins, Moore and Jpp to really get after the QB. Something this def. missed last year.
I think if you add donald and grab a quality lb by the 3rd rd also, and we have the makings of a very dominant looking front 7. something this team needs to really bring this defense to a dominating level. Hill, Rolle, and Prince are more than formidible players in the secondary. We can add some FA's and depth behind them, its the pass rush we need
help with which is why I'd take someone like Donald over a CB in the first.
you win by building both the OL and the DL.. I would have NO issue with Donald in round one.. he is an explosive impact player.. you put him next to a guy who takes up two spaces.. and its all good..