with the Giants, IMO. The fact that we are making all of these moves and we haven't even considered reworking his contract is very telling to me. He has a $20 million cap hit right now and we are making moves. As it stands now, Eli has 2 more years on his contract with a very high salary and low dead cap hit if we were to move on.
If we were to extend him 3-4 years to lower his cap hit significantly, he would have 4-5 more guaranteed seasons as our QB due to cap implications.
If we don't do anything, he has 1 more year as our starting QB and we will need to re-evaluate at this point next offseason. If he has another year like last, we very well could be planning our exit strategy.
It sends a message to me that the Giants need to see Eli recover from last year before they consider extending him.
Do you agree?
Although I also think the FO and TC are confident that 2013 was an aberration.
The likely scenario (in my opinion) is that he bounces back to 2008-2010 form and has a good year. But we always need to think about the downside.
I meant a more significant investment (a first round pick) - someone picked with the goal of succeeding Eli.
I don't think Nassib was drafted with the idea of replacing Eli, but you're right.
The line was horrid last year, but Eli has to rebound this year. I am 100% confident that he will, 0 doubts.
The moves that have been made such as not retaining Nicks and the pretty much complete turnover of the OL says much more to me as to what the organization thinks the problem areas were last year..
Fact is if the Giants are in the tank this coming season and Eli puts a season up similar to what happened this past season, the Giants will have a very difficult decision on their hands. If the line solidifies and Eli puts a much better season together, then the last will get chalked as aberration and he'll be restructured. It could even happen by the mid-way point if Eli is playing well.
We have one, a franchise one. Shows up every week.
I doubt Eli can play as poorly as he did in 2013. Can he return the form of 2011 (or 2010 which was a pretty darn good)?
If he plays like he did last year, then I would agree. But I think that is almost an impossibility unless the rest of the team collapses again.
I think Eli finished his career here.
John Elway went thru a very similar thing (actually worse) in Denver.........Tommy Maddox was the heir!!!!
The moves that have been made such as not retaining Nicks and the pretty much complete turnover of the OL says much more to me as to what the organization thinks the problem areas were last year..
Pretty much a complete turnover of the OL = 2/5 new starters? They haven't upgraded from Nicks yet.
I don't think the offseason says anything about where they think the blame lies for last seasons collapse.
1. A terrible OL. No QB is going to be successful with that OL. Doesn't mean Tom Brady would have a season like Eli did last year, but he wouldn't be good.
2. Nicks mailed it in.
3. No running game.
4. Stale offensive system that didn't adjust to our problems.
5. Eli tried to do too much and tried to make plays when they weren't there.
I expect Eli to bounce back in our new situation, I'm only saying that they Giants are going to make him prove it first.
So, if you would consider that last season wasn't ALL his fault..how EXACTLY is he supposed to prove that it was an abberation?
1. Schwartz
2. Walton
3. Pugh is a year older and no longer a rookie.
4. I expect a draft pick or two.
5. Beatty can't possibly be worse!
In return, Eli makes the big plays and throws to compliment his cast.
We got away from that last year....beyond our WRs (which dissapointed), the OL, TE's, and RBs were a complete joke. Hence, Eli suffered.
If Eli has another bad year, it's on the GM, scouts, and coaches. Not because Eli has lost his skill set.
The guy can still make all the throws and reads, he just needs help.
And these players have to be immediate contributors.
If we were to extend Eli now and he had another disastrous year, the team would be handicapped for the foreseeable future. You could easily be blinded by Eli's great past performances and 2 super bowl trophies but good management sticks to the present in talent evaluation. Under no circumstance would I want Eli extended until he proves he's that same QB he has been that is worth $20mm/yr.
his cap hit is way to high. It just doesn't make economical and strategic sense.
But this the NFL we live in.
I don't like being the Foreskins but Reese had to make these moves. Building through the draft would have taken too long and we needed to revamp our roster in a major way. I am still concerned about the tight end position and whether we have that big No. 1 receiver that we thought Nicks was. But McAdoo's system will be different and we may not need that big WR. Seattle didn't have it and look what they did. The NFL is a copycat league and I think the Giants saw what they did on D and took a page out of their playbook.
We now have two corners whose best skill is playing press coverage. We have talent and depth at safety and who knows how good Will Hill can be if he keeps his off field issues in check. McLain is a big, physical run stopping LB and we saw what Beason did last season. We have some depth there as well.
I still think we draft an OL in the first round unless someone drops into our lap. Can we count on Snee for the entire year? Although I believe Mosley will be a good player for us and is great depth right now.
The attitude of this team needed to change and we have certainly addressed some very large special teams issues by getting Holliday and Demps.
On paper, great stuff and it seems to be well though out and targeted...not just random front page signings. But this is only March and I don't want to win the Super Bowl now...I want to win it next February.
last year was very poor regardless of cirumstance. at a minimum he has 2 years (hopefully and i expect more)- but to extend after that season unless given a large discount, is not the right move.
We have one, a franchise one. Shows up every week.
I doubt Eli can play as poorly as he did in 2013. Can he return the form of 2011 (or 2010 which was a pretty darn good)?
If he plays like he did last year, then I would agree. But I think that is almost an impossibility unless the rest of the team collapses again.
I think Eli finished his career here.
John Elway went thru a very similar thing (actually worse) in Denver.........Tommy Maddox was the heir!!!!
I'm not saying the Giants are trying to "buy a championship", there is still a lot of work to be done, but this is the closest the Giants have looked to buying a championship.
I was listening to the radio yesterday and they compared us to the Phins last year and said.....it doesn't always work. Well it's a terrible comparison, IMO. The phins threw silly money at the biggest names. We didn't do that. Schwartz, Jennings, Walton, the LB from the Ravens(forgot his name) all were great value signings.
Why extend him if we don't need the money now?
The reason they aren't extending him now is not because they might move on from him but because they don't want to make his last contract that much bigger by deferring an extra 30M into it.
Also I believe this offseason shows just how committed they are to Eli. I think Reese realized he has a 3-5 year window with Eli in his prime and he best not waste any more of it with too much being put on untested young guys like Mosley, Brewer, Cordle, Wilson, Scott, etc. etc.
There is no way to know.
2. Our OL was just downright disgusting. It would not shock me if we have 4 new OL starting this year with Pugh being the lone exception. Lewan in the 1st to play LT and lets eat Beatty's salary as best as possible.
3. We needed a new system, despite the success of Gilbride's offense, it was just time to move on. New eyes, new attitude, new regime is something that might work wonders.
The thing is I am still not sold on it being a make or break year. Regardless of what happens in the draft, we still dont have top end talent on offense. Wilson is a huge question mark, we dont have a 2nd WR (and dare I say a true #1 WR, we can argue that for another time), no TE, and still dont know what we got on the OL.
If all things being equal, placing the blame for inadequate production on 1 player with so many question marks for the entire unit, is just unjust. Now if Eli is just flat out deplorable while he has ample time, and WRs running free, then it may be time to move on. But to not expect rocky moments or just flat out shitty play is just unrealistic.
An ideal situation is that the defense carries us early in the year, our offense makes enough plays to win some close contest, and then they start to gel and really pick it up at the end of the year.
(same issue for Baas and Snee)
I don't think they wanted to pay that much for LJ
With all the signings they are making, how can you say they are strapped for cash?
This is the most active free agency period for the Giants ever, and its getting done without mortgaging their future.
Eli's contract is like a piggy bank that you don't break open unless its a last resort
The fact that they have not done so yet says absolutely nothing about what they think about Eli
They have been able to sign a big free agent and a number of solid ones along with re-signing a number of players. Re-structuring should only be done as a last resort because money only gets pushed down the line. An extension is not necessary at this point.
I think the Giants have faith that Eli is still their guy. They are just making practical business decisions.
The fact that the Giants have no extended Eli up to this point when we could clearly use the cap space, tells me that they are not sold on Eli long term from this point. They are going to make him prove that last year was an aberration before they commit long term.
Whenever the Giants move on, I think you take a QB first round and move on. I dont want an "established" veteran. Start over and mold him into a better Eli.
Yes, they could easily extend him and save some cap room but that will make his last contract that much bigger. When you lower a player's cap # in the present it is a down payment on more money in the future. Not only would moving any of his current 30M into future years add that amount to his next contract (and likely his 37+ years), but even more money to incentivize him to do so (in the guaranteed form).
If you had to shell out a huge contract to a 34 year old QB and you wanted to keep that contract as small as possible this is the course of action you would have to take, unless you wanted to guarantee him even more money which would make it that much tougher to eventually move on (even if it's retirement).
But if he repeats his performance from last year, I think the Giants will begin looking at other options sooner rather than later.
In QB league, it's just as risky to wait for the wheels to fall your current starter as it is to go all in for one quarterback at the top of the draft.
IMO, despite the holes, if Mettenberger really starts to slide, he's a real good choice. He could ride the bench for a few years if necessary.
Eli is a franchise QB.
Very good players have bad years, it happens throughout the history of sports.
In QB league, it's just as risky to wait for the wheels to fall your current starter as it is to go all in for one quarterback at the top of the draft.
IMO, despite the holes, if Mettenberger really starts to slide, he's a real good choice. He could ride the bench for a few years if necessary.
Isn't that why they took Nassib? I don't think they do it 2 years in a row.
Everyone knows when a player in his mid-30's signs a contract it would be very easy to puff up the last years with salaries the player will never make it to. Eli's team will be looking for as much guaranteed $ early on and the Giants will be looking to structure that in such a way that they can move on easily whenever he's done protecting themselves in his 37, 38, 39, contract years.
IMO the math being utilized in this decision by Reese is how much extra guaranteed money would be added to the contract by extending now (again assuming that 30M would be converted to guaranteed money), such that it would increase possible dead money cap hits in later years when divided evenly over the lift of the deal.
The only reason Mettenberger would slip is the knee injury. Otherwise, he's likely a top 5-10 pick, if not #1
Eli is a franchise QB.
Very good players have bad years, it happens throughout the history of sports.
I can only say this so many times, but I don't disagree. If I were to bet, I'd bet Eli bounces back and gets an extension next year. I think he's still a great QB and hasn't lost a thing physically.
That being said, the Giants are making him prove it!
Eli has built up enough goodwill to deserve several "benefit of the doubts" but not enough to deserve an extension just yet. If he doesn't pick up his play in 2014 he probably still goes into 2015 as the starter, but by then the Giants would either know they have something in Nassib or would start scouting JR/SR college QBs for 2016.
Eli may struggle again but he won't struggle like he did in 2013. And he won't be replaced in 2015, even if he did stb in 2014.
And to take it a step further I think Eli will have less hero ball placed on his shoulders this coming season. This team is going to get back to smash mouth football in 2014.
I guess it's possible...Eli could have another bad year and the Giants would probably start to worry but I just don't see Eli completely falling apart and I think that's the only scenario that sees the Giants start planning an exit strategy. But anything is possible.
The problem with trying to extend his contract now is that Eli and his agent aren't going to want to negotiate a deal based off last year's numbers. Eli is going to want top 5 QB money and how can he ask for top 5 money when his QB rating was closer to the bottom 5.
And while Eli would surely be open to restructuring the current deal, the Giants are reluctant to do that because that would give Eli's agent added leverage when it comes to negotiating an extension next year (because the cap hit that would come from not negotiating an extension would be excessive).
I think hypothetically, if this year is as bad as last even with an improved O-Line & running game, then an extension would be unlikely.
But I do not think the Giants FO is looking at it this way. I think they fully expect him to bounce back if they can improve other aspects of the team like the OL & Running game. I do not believe that Reese and Co. feels this is a make or break year for him.
Though, you are probably correct if your hypothetical came to fruition.
The cap situation is what it is. No use trying to restructure a guy and put more money into the future if he keeps playing the way he has. It's smart business to let him keep playing at the current contract level..
There are times, very good QB's start declining. I am not saying that Eli is starting to, but i can't sit here and say that he will go back to 2010-2011 form either. That's all wishful thinking. This is an exercise in futility..
We do know that he has declined in the last 2 years..We can put on the blame on the OL or Nicks all we want but he sill has been playing rather poorly..
Personally, i don't think is any more better than it was from last year..Outside of the hope that Pugh improves from last year, the rest of the line is BIG question marks..
i wouldn't say it's a make or break, but it will be gut check for the organization to see what they will do for next year..Not too many teams want to put another 50M into a 35 yr old QB who skill are declining. And if this year, he gets back to the "good" Eli, then the decision will be easy..
The NFL is very unforgiving.
If the Giants are planning to try and return to that type of offense ("smash mouth"), boy, those results are going to be ugly as fuck.
Hopefully, the Giants can strengthen their O-Line, improve their running game, and get Eli another weapon or two.
When was the last time a 2 time SB champ had a season like Eli did last year?
Eli also carried this squad with an unmatched QB performance in '11. I doubt we will ever see a Giant QB have a season like that again. If we do, dollars to donuts it will be Eli Manning who does it.
As far as Eli "not able to make plays on his own", I guess if you mean with his running ability there is some truth to it. But, if you think Eli is not a play maker we must have been watching a different team this past decade.
Eli is one the best clutch quarterbacks in recent NFL history. Eli's entire offensive line sucked last year. His #1 received redefined the word "quitter".
But who knows, maybe Kent Graham is still available?
Not a one.
Not a one.
I really hate posts like these. My goal is just to avoid stupid replies like this and actually talk with people who have a clue about the game.
There is no QB on earth who can win all by himself. It simply is not possible. That said, the performance of Eli Manning during the 2011 season is about as close as you will ever see of a QB hoisting a team on his back and taking them to the promised land.
The crowning achievement was the two minute drive to win it. Which also included one of the greatest plays in NFL history. Funny thing is, that was Eli's second best late game Super Bowl Winning Drive. The '07 drive was even better, and included what could be called the greatest play in NFL history.
Amen...although none of us can say that the Giants are not at least trying to rebuild this team with how this off season is playing out.
The front office knows last years roster was crap.
Eli's chances of being with the giants 3-4 years from now
are stronger than any player on the roster or any coach on the sideline. The only guy more likely to be around than Eli is John Mara.
He has his strengths and weaknesses and you have to constantly monitor them and value him relative to alternatives, like you would any other player without emotion. He is not a top 5 QB overall, maybe at the tail end of the top 10. He is not indispensable; as the seahakws showed last year, football is a team game that requires offense, defense and special teams....and you can win a super bowl with a good QB who makes efficient, smart decisions, not just a hall of fame type QB. If Eli is commanding a disproportionate amount of cap space relative to his skills/market value, then the Giants need to plan accoringly.
I believe Eli will turn it around. If for some bizarre reason he can't, next year is the time to start planning for his replacement. Is Nassib the guy? If not, who?
In end, Eli will bounce back and be the starting QB for a long time. I'm almost 100% certain of that.
That's a step towards smash mouth football. The off season isn't over yet.
Eli is a franchise QB.
Very good players have bad years, it happens throughout the history of sports.
Eli is most definitely not in a make or break year,
BBI is beginning to be like ESPN. We make up invalid issues and argue them as if they are valid.
restructuring now is only borrowing major dollars from the future, so you only do it if you are desperate. Hopefully, JR is gradually leading us out of the desperate for money scenario.
You have to pay him sooner or later. there's no rush to make it later.
As for his future, yeah this will be a telling year. doubt he's going anywhere, but it will be a guide towards whether they want to continue to hitching him to the wagon or planning on the future.
Eli has a lot of goodwill, enough that he's able to have multiple bad seasons and still be looked upon favorably by the FO. But he's been eating into that equity for a while now and another season in the range of the last two might be the end of it.
There are some reasons to believe he'll improve, the biggest one is that he's Eli Manning and you never know what the heck you're going to get from him. Sometimes he'll be awesome, sometimes he'll be terrible. And there's really no rhyme or reason to it. Unfortunately, he's rarely been awesome over the past 1.5 seasons. But he's wildly inconsistent enough for us to believe that he could be great the next time he takes the field, even in the worst times.
He played on 2 Super Bowl title teams. That's worth a lot. But it doesn't get you $20 million and a guaranteed starting job for life.
He will keep being New York's QB until he gets hurt or somebody better comes along. If he continues to play poorly that will be sooner rather than later.
The Giants let Kurt Warner go, and he still had some game.
But I'm also expecting a strong bounceback season from Eli in 2014 due to a better OL and the new offensive scheme.
Make or Break may not be the best way to put it because he's already made it. But this is an extremely important season for his career in many ways. 2013 took him from probable HOFer to doubtful HOFer, it was just an epic fail of a season from an in his prime franchise QB. He has a lot to prove in 2014.
RB: The worst group of running backs in the NFL
WR: Victor Cruz and then question marks.
OL: The worst offensive line in the NFL
TE: The worst group of TEs in the NFL.
FB: Yay, we're at least average!
Combine all of that with the fact that our defense couldn't keep other team's offense off the field, and anyone who doesn't think that the above affected Eli's performance is delusional (imho).
My point to this thread is simple(although clearly not simple enough for the simple minded folks), the fact that they aren't extending Eli at this point in his contract/career/offseason, tells me that they will make him prove that "the above" was the problem and not that Eli was the problem. I'm sure the Giants agree with most of us that Eli will bounce back, but they are going to make him prove it before committing long term at this point. That's all I'm saying.
You can want them to make like 2008 again and, honestly, that's fine (more than, given Eli's sad level of play over the last season and a half), but there's a difference between wanting something and reality. They aren't likely going to be built for much offensively, but what they are isn't likely going to be successful, productive smash mouth, ground and pound football -- best case is they get teams to at least sorta care about defending a tolerable run game again.
Did Eli have mediocre weapons in 2013? Yes
Did Eli play in a difficult offensive scheme for WRs and QBs to be on the same page? Yes
A lot of things went wrong in 2013. You can't blame Eli for all of the offenses problems last year. Our OL was a joke, our running game was just as big of a joke, and our WRs were embarrassingly mediocre. But...
Was Eli's performance shitty independent of his protection and weapons? Yes
If you say no that that above question then you are an Eli Manning homer. I love Eli and I hope that he retires a Giant. But for all the negatives said about his surrounding cast in 2013, Eli simply flat out sucked on an individual level. He made awful decisions and was very inconsistent with his accuracy. As much as we shit on Nicks for not having a TD last year, that had just as much to do with Eli missing Hakeem on about a half-dozen realistic TD opportunities including a few easy ones Eli somehow missed.
Eli is capable of much much more, he was arguably a Top 3 QB in football just a couple of years ago in 2011. He is someone I trust in big situations and someone I love having as a leader on this team. But the guy had a pathetic 2013 and we really need him to get his shit together in 2014 if we want to go anywhere.
This isn't a blame Eli thread. I'm about as big of a fan as anyone can be(except dep). I fully expect a big year next year and I hope he retires a Giant. As Osi so elequently stated, there was a lot wrong with the Giants in 2013, including Eli.
My only point is very clear. The message that I think the Giants are sending to Eli is....Prove it. Prove 2013 was an aberration. Otherwise, there would be no good reason not to extend him this offseason.
1. Schwartz
2. Walton
3. Pugh is a year older and no longer a rookie.
4. I expect a draft pick or two.
5. Beatty can't possibly be worse!
I believe there is a BIG "?" around Walton, so I still see a hole at Center. Boothe is gone, and he was at least serviceable depth.
Other than tht I agree with your theory, but they are going to need to go 3 deep within the first 5 rounds on OL.
Can this question be slightly amended?
Based on the research, the closest comparable season for a year that Manning had was Brett Favre in 2005.
The Packers went 4-12 that season after having won double digit games in each of the past 4 season. Favre threw 29 interceptions.
Aaron Rodgers was only a rookie on that '05 team. The numbers were average for Favre the next season. But in '07, he returned to his old self (for the most part) and the Packers went 13-3 and to the NFC Championship Game.
But hey, I am just an Ole Man, and not really into subleinal messages, I will just leave it up to you guys to come to your own fictional reasons?
And i disagree with you about the defense, they did keep offenses of the field..The offense just kept running the ball over..
Quote:
from the early 90s then tell me about franchise QBs.
Eli is a franchise QB.
Very good players have bad years, it happens throughout the history of sports.
for the 9,000th time. Different era. There is no one in professional football that would take Eli Manning over Elway- no one.
Who is talking about taking Eli over Elway? I think you missed my point completely.
My point was a really good player (and great player such as Elway) can perform badly, esp over a few seasons. Happens throughout the history of sports.
I'm not going to compare Eli to Dave Brown in reference to a bad season. Dave Brown sucks. Eli is really good.
And although it was a different era, the comparison is valid because Denver was ready to run Elway out of Denver based on those seasons you just looked up.
Would Snee & Kiwi have agreed to pay cuts if the Giants were way under the cap? Even if they were forced into it (take the pay cut or get cut), what kind of effect would it have on the rest of the locker room?
If this FA period proved anything (in Giants case anyways), better teams have figured out how to move things around to manage their needs and the cap, to a reasonable extent, of course. Giants have been FAR MORE active than most thought they would be, when until a couple of weeks ago everybody thought they'd be hard pressed for cap room.
Bottom line I dont think anything should be made out of Eli not getting an extension, other than the fact the Giants didnt "need" the money.