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My thoughts on the Giants upcoming draft

YANKEE28 : 4/17/2014 10:29 pm
It’s time for the NFL Draft. Every Giants fan has their opinions on the draft, and I thought I would share mine.

It is fair to say that the past few Giants drafts have been less than stellar. Marc Ross, if you review his past history with the Eagles and Bills, has never been very good at drafting, and that has certainly not changed since he joined the Giants. I think that there is significant pressure on Ross, and for that matter Jerry Reese, to put together an outstanding collection of 7 drafted players and some key UDFA signings.

So what does that mean? In my opinion, it means S A F E picks. What is a safe pick? It is likely:
• a player that has played at a major college
• a player that was also a good student-intelligent and capable of grasping a playbook and ready to step in quickly (think Justin Pugh)
• a player that has already had enough reps at a specific position so as to have “mastered” a position
• a player that has not had numerous injuries
• a player with a professional “football first and team first” attitude

Will the Giants draft the BPA? I know Reese always says they took the guy with the highest grade on their board, but let’s be serious. Was David Wilson the best player available when he was drafted by the Giants? Of course not. But Wilson was the best player available at a Giant’s position of need. With 7 draft picks, expect the Giants draft to end with a player at each of the following positions:

OL
TE
DT
RB
WR
LB

There could easily be a 2nd selection at any of the above positions as the draft unfolds, but I feel pretty strongly that we will have a new player at each of the above 6 positions when the draft ends.

With that, who are we drafting and when? Though Reese will always talk about draft day trades, his history says otherwise. I don’t see any Giants trades during this 3 day draft. I expect the Giants to be on the board at 12, 43, 74, 113, 152,174, & 187.

In Round 1, I think the Giants are going to draft Aaron Donald. There have been a lot of comparisons to other “short” DT’s with regards to Donald, but the one I have not seen is the comparison to current Giant Mike Patterson. Patterson was a 1st round pick of the Eagles and certainly was a solid performer for years in Philly before his brain issues. Let’s compare the numbers. Patterson did not work out at his 2005 Combine, but he was measured at 5’ 11 5/8 inches and he weighed 292 pounds. At his Pro Day at USC, he actually measured 5’ 11 ½ inches, still weighed 292 pounds, and ran a 4.93 40 at what is considered to be a very fast track at Southern Cal. Patterson did the bench that day, lifting the bar 26 times and did the 3 cone drill in 7.62 seconds. What Donald showed on the field, and especially at the Combine is simply outstanding. You just cannot compare a 4.68 forty to a 4.93 forty. And you cannot compare a 7.11 3 cone to a 7.63 3 cone. Think about Dwayne Robertson, another short but very strong DT who was drafted in Round 1. Robertson ran the forty in 5.03 and to me that is what separates Donald from other short DT comparisons. You simply just can’t find a DT that moves with the quickness of Donald and has both his power and strength. I have seen a lot of Donald and yes I have seen plays where he has been washed out. But there are far more plays where he has dominated. In the NFL, DT is a rotational position much more than in college where Donald was accustomed to playing every snap. I think he is going to have a very successful NFL career as he will be rotated in on occasions that play to his strength. From a young age, Donald’s father had significant input on every facet of his son’s life. Donald is a well-grounded individual that has a very high likelihood of success.
(if Donald is off the board before the Giants select, I think the pick will be Martin and he will be expected to play tackle)

The Giants certainly have made a commitment to McAdoo and improving the offense, but I think that Reese can’t pass on Donald and will utilize picks 2, 3, and 4 to improve the offensive side of the ball.

In Round 2, I think the Giants will be searching for Hakeem Nicks replacement. The slow development of Randle and Jernigan and the inconsistency with receivers being on the same page as Eli lead me to believe that the Giants selection will be an intelligent student of the game. I am thinking a WR like Allen Robinson or Jordan Matthews. Both have the size of Nicks, but will contribute on Day One because of their rapid ability to learn the new playbook.
(If the Giants end up with Martin instead of Donald, I think the Giants could use their 2nd round pick on DE Scott Critchon- a tireless worker who can play inside or outside and is certainly well known to new Giants coach Danny Langsdorf from their time together at Oregon State)

In Round 3, I think the Giants fill their need for a tight end. Protecting Eli will be key, and I think the Giants best two options are CJ Fiedorowicz or Arthur Lynch. Both proved they are intelligent players that can block, but I also think each can be a productive receiver as well in the Giants new offense.

In Round 4, I see the Giants addressing their needs on the offensive line. I think the Giants have done much to improve the Guard position in the past 2 months. They also have hopes for upward movement from one of their 3 recent Guard draft picks- Brewer, Mosely, and Herrmann. To me the need will be at Center. I like everything about Bryan Stork. He was the leader of the National Champs offense and I think he has a solid career ahead of him in the NFL. I was never a big fan of Jim Cordle or Dallas Reynolds. I see the Giants keeping 2 Centers and that the young player behind Walton will require the leadership and maturity to step in if needed. I think Stork can fill that role.

In Round 5, the Giants have two picks. I think they will bolster the positions of LB and RB with those picks. The Giants play in a division that requires linebackers with speed and coverage skills, and I happen to like Khairi Fortt from Cal with our pick. I think Fortt made a smart, practical move leaving Penn State when it imploded. And Fortt’s Mom is a doctor. You can bet this well-spoken kid will contribute immediately on Specials and will pick up Fewell schemes quickly. The Giants like the large backs that can protect Eli, and I think Stanford’s Tyler Gaffney fits the bill. Gaffney was a “money” player with Stanford, and always seemed to make the big play when needed.

In my opinion the Giants roster is currently a bit light at the linebacker position. With the Giants 6th round pick, I could see the Giants drafting Boston College linebacker Steele Devitto or Montana linebacker Brock Coyle. Both are hard working lunch pail types that have coverage skills and Devitto has already worked out for the Giants, after a great career at local Don Bosco high school.

So there you have it- my thoughts on the Giants 2014 draft.

Well thought out and reasonable  
Blue Blood : 4/17/2014 10:34 pm : link
I would expect the Giants to try and address the OL earlier than round 4.. I think they might look OL in round 3 and TE in round 4.. obviously depending on who is there..

I also expect them to draft at least one RB..
If Donald is off the board  
Giants2012 : 4/17/2014 10:41 pm : link
do you believe the Bears, who are desperate for a DT, might trade with the Giants so they can draft Jernigan? Otherwise, the Giants, who aren't as desperate could draft Jernigan.
I don't see the Giants  
YANKEE28 : 4/17/2014 10:47 pm : link
taking Jernigan at 12. If Matthews some how falls to us at 12, he could easily be the pick over Donald or anyone else. I don't see that happening. I think the Giants will either take Donald or Martin because both are very safe picks.
I could more than  
chopperhatch : 4/17/2014 10:48 pm : link
Live with those scenarios. Good post.

Martin 9r Donald will be fine for me but in the 2nd id prefer davante adams to matthews.

the rest is fine
Good stuff Y28, thanks  
BigBlue TT : 4/17/2014 10:56 pm : link
and post more often.
Donald rd 1  
GmenDynasty : 4/17/2014 10:56 pm : link
Bitonio/Koundijo
Donte Moncreif/ Abbredis/Lattimore
Joe Don Duncan/Arthur Lynch/Crockett Gilmore
So  
thomasa510 : 4/17/2014 11:09 pm : link
So much depends on who falls. Evans or Donald in 1st, etc
BigBlue TT  
YANKEE28 : 4/17/2014 11:16 pm : link
Good to hear from you. Hope all is well. I wish there was more tape of Donald vs Martin when Pitt played ND this year. Donald was primarily inside, and when he did go outside, he was usually over the RT and not Martin. Would have been great to see a lot of them battling one vs one.
always  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 4/17/2014 11:19 pm : link
good to hear your views Yankee28.
thanks Eric  
YANKEE28 : 4/17/2014 11:26 pm : link
I expect a VERY cautious Giants draft this year. I do not believe you will see a JPP type of roll of the dice in Round 1, or drafting a no name who lights it up at a Regional Combine like Cox did last year.

I think this years picks will all be players that did outstanding in interviews and Wonderlics.
Same to you buddy  
BigBlue TT : 4/17/2014 11:36 pm : link
I'm expecting big things from Guarantano this year!
Like father like son  
YANKEE28 : 4/17/2014 11:39 pm : link
Really have not been following BC as closely for the past few years. Just not enough time
Yankee  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 4/17/2014 11:44 pm : link
the definition of caution to me is Zack Martin. Solid, safe pick.
Eric  
YANKEE28 : 4/17/2014 11:51 pm : link
I agree. There is not a Giant fan that could be upset with Martin as the pick.

I think that Mara will have more input than usual in this years draft, and thus my thoughts on the result.

Just an FYI, for the record I would be against taking Ebron at 12.
Yanke28  
SGMen : 4/18/2014 12:06 am : link
I am against taking TE Ebron at 12 as well. I just have this "feeling" that he isn't going to be as good as you'd want at 12.

I like Donald, Lewan and even Martin at 12.
Good post Yankees and good to hear from you  
Brandon Walsh : 4/18/2014 12:17 am : link
The elephant in the room in round 1 is Lewan. He isn't the risky upside pick JPP was as he has the tape in a big time conference to back up his athletic ability and has a ton more upside then Martin to be Reese "blue goose" left tackle for the next decade. That might be to much for Reese to pass up. The question is do they trust his character ? (Besides being there at 12)

To a lesser extent Evans is a wildcard at 12 i can't see Reese passing up but I'd put the odds of him falling to 12 slim but stranger things have happened in the draft, especially if there is a run on quarterbacks. Reese loves his big, fast, long WRs and we know he puts a premium on the position with the volume he drafts it in the higher rounds.
If they wait until the 4th round to go OL  
Phil in LA : 4/18/2014 12:21 am : link
after not finding a starting OL after round 2 since 2003, I will save the remote and throw the TV.
Phil in LA  
SGMen : 4/18/2014 12:32 am : link
I am with you! TV goes thru the window!!

The OL keyed TC's tenure as much as anything else. We need to retool.
I third Phil's motion about the OL.  
BlueLou : 4/18/2014 3:42 am : link
They'd have to really LOVE the players they'd pick in rounds 1 and 2 to wait even until round 3, but in some circumstances I could barely imagine it.

I see them exhibiting a bit mor patience re. the WR and TE positions, which in effect is exhibiting more patience with Randle and Robinson than BBI collectively has. Counting also on the new OC to make RR and AR'S positions easier to master.
your mock is eerily similar to mine.....I had us taking an ol  
George from PA : 4/18/2014 5:04 am : link
In the 2nd.....and Jordon slipped to the 3rd and lynch 4th.....so it goes, we are on same page.

I disagree that it is safe

But Donald is not a safe pick......like Eric said....Martin is safe. The Notre Dame Te is safer.....safe to me is plug snd play......type players.

Wevhave boom bust type.....and Donald is #1 boom bust type.
Yankee  
alligatorpie : 4/18/2014 8:15 am : link
your first point, 'having played at a major college.'

This, for 'safe picks', could be problematic. If you take WR, for example, if a player had a great QB, a serious O system, a nasty OL...these things help his numbers, maybe inflate them.

Can he still thrive when things are not so easy? In the NFL you cannot assume things will be easy.

Ditto QB. Give me the one who played behind a crap line and for a variety of co-ordinators - and still got it done.

If a player is reasonably in the size and speed area, and has lots of production, shows flash, instincts or skills, you have to ask your staff to vet them regardless of school.
I agree that the development of Randle and Jernigan  
Headhunter : 4/18/2014 9:51 am : link
has been slow. That being said they each have one ome year under their belts of development. that can mean that they are one year older or they are closer to who they are going to be. The not being on the same page would be more of a concern if it was just those 2, but Eli and Cruz were out of sync at times also. I wouldn't mind a Evans at 1, but if they go that rout or Donald or Ebron, then I want an OL at #43
Great post  
sjnyfan : 4/18/2014 9:53 am : link
thanks
Phil  
lugnut : 4/18/2014 9:59 am : link
Wow - have we really not found a starting OL after round 2 since 2003?? That's horrific, and equally damning of our coaching and drafting.
Y28  
JonC : 4/18/2014 10:27 am : link
Excellent stuff and likely on target in the overall big picture, imv.
Can someone name some SHORT and LIGHT starting DTs?  
Jupiter : 4/18/2014 10:55 am : link
Forget about past HOFers.

Are there any DTs currently that compare to Donald and are starting defensive tackles?
Why would a WR drafted in the second or third round ...  
Jupiter : 4/18/2014 11:00 am : link
be expected to replace a first rounder like Nicks?

Nicks performed up to the expectations of his draft position but did not exceed those expectations.

Giants already have Randle and Jernigan who now appear to be performing approximately at the level that they were drafted at. Why would you think you can find a talent to replace Nicks in the second or third round?

If the Giants expect to find someone to replace Nicks, they better be looking in the 1st round.
I hate this shot.  
Andy in Halifax : 4/18/2014 11:14 am : link
Quote:
Will the Giants draft the BPA? I know Reese always says they took the guy with the highest grade on their board, but let’s be serious. Was David Wilson the best player available when he was drafted by the Giants? Of course not.

You dismiss it because it doesn't fit your analysis. Sorry to break it to you, you have no clue if Wilson was the top of the board or not.

I don't doubt that the Giants value certain positions (WR, CB, DE, DT, QB) above others and that valuation affects their draft board, but we can't sit here and say who was or was not on the top of their board.
shit, not shot  
Andy in Halifax : 4/18/2014 11:15 am : link
.
YANKEE  
gidiefor : Mod : 4/18/2014 11:22 am : link
Always great to have you post - and that is a solid analysis

My only quibble is that Mike Patterson gets very limited snaps in rotation and is really more of a B player in the Giants scheme - so comparing Donald to Patterson makes some sense - but is not an extremely persuasive argument for justifying a number 1 pick.

Having said that I like Martin - I think Martin would be a great pick for us - my only other qualifier this year - is that if a WoW skilled tall WR is available at 12 - I think the Giants will have a real debate on their hands - but I do think Martin is the safest possible pick for the Giants at 12.
Thats for all the feedback  
YANKEE28 : 4/18/2014 12:20 pm : link
A few comments.

Phil-The Giants signed 4 FA's and re-did Snee. I don't see any drafted player getting the chance Pugh was given last year. I'd be fine with Martin, but I think the Giants need a true center and I like Stork. Last year Hugh Thorton and Terron Armstead became solid starters in year one after being drafted in the 3rd and 4th round. Competent drafting by Ross is what is needed. I also see a logjam of OL on the current roster. I don't see all three of draftees Brewer, Mosely, and Herrmann cut. If we keep 8 OL on the final roster, there is likely room for only 1 new OL thru the draft.

Alligatorpie-do some research on Ross's drafting history with the Eagles, Bills, and Giants. He overwhelmingly takes players from large schools. I am not saying that is right, my post is trying to predict how Reese and Ross will approach this draft.

Jupiter- How about Geno Atkins? Take another look at how Atkins played against the Giants. Disrupted our entire offense all game.

Andy in Halifax- no one knows the Giants draft board, but there wasn't a draft site I follow that had Wilson higher than 45th overall. For that matter, no site had Doug Martin higher than 35th and he was drafted before Wilson. And last year, Eddie Lacy went with the last pick in Rd 2 last year. Was every GM wrong, or can I conclude that RB's are not valued as highly as other positions.

gidiefor-good to hear from you. My comments on Patterson related to when he was draft eligible, not his status today. I am comparing Patterson to Donald at the time their draft decision was being made by GM's. And Patterson certainly produced in his first few seasons. Just ask Eli !!

My analysis on this draft is based on how Reese and Ross will react to the pressure of needing to have an outstanding draft. At the end of the day, I think you will be looking at what are considered safe picks, and I think you will have a new OT,TE,DT,WR,RB & LB when it is over.

I also think that when you look at 3 starters lost, (Joseph, Nicks, & Myers) you will see a DT, WR, and TE early.

I would hardly  
Bones : 4/18/2014 12:40 pm : link
Call a 285 lb. a SAFE pick.

I'm curious why DE is not on your radar as a need pick.
Bones  
YANKEE28 : 4/18/2014 12:54 pm : link
I have watched a lot of Donald. People keep bringing up his weight. I am focusing much more on his speed and strength. Do some research and find me 3 DT's that have ever run a 4.68 forty or a 7.11 3 cone. I doubt you can find 3. And Donald has the production to back up the numbers. I see Donald as a rare piece to add to the defense and safe enough to take at 12. I know the Giants have plenty of other holes, but Donald is a player I feel very strongly about. A lot on by draft board changes if he is gone before we pick.
bones  
YANKEE28 : 4/18/2014 12:57 pm : link
I think the Ayers signing handles the loss of Tuck. The Giants will have 4 DE's on the final roster, and they are likely all on the current roster. If a DE is hurt this summer, you could see Jenkins as a swing player along with 4 other DT's on the final roster.
good post  
Del Shofner : 4/18/2014 12:59 pm : link
YANKEE.
great post  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 4/18/2014 1:04 pm : link
like people mentioned above it's great to see you post. When I first came on BBI there weren't many better posters.

I agree 100% on Donald. He's been my favorite for our pick for a while now. The lack of size is a real issue. We see rookies of all sizes struggle to adjust to the man-strength of the NFL sometimes. It's just a different level of athlete in the NFL. So maybe an undersized DT like Donald could have some issues in the NFL against bigger guards and especially against double teams. That's a risk, but the reward for Donald more than makes up for the risk. Interior pressure is just so important in today's NFL with 3 step drops, having a potential 8+ sack guy in the middle is such a unique weapon.

I also like how he fits with JPP and Hankins. I would put Donald right in between those two. It's impossible for an OL to double all of those guys. His skillset is a nice contrast to Big Hank's. Having a great 3 tech pass rusher like Donald next to a big space eater like Hank just seems like a cool combo. And giving JPP some interior pass rush help could really help get him going next year. We need a top year from JPP and I think Donald's presence would help that.

And I also agree that Martin is the #2 option. He just seems like a Giants type of player. I love how well rounded a prospect he is. I definitely like him more than Lewan at this point. I've been cooling off on Ebron, don't think we need a TE in round 1. Martin and Pugh would be a nice young pair of OLineman to build around. Two guys who can potentially be here for the rest of Eli's prime. Tough to pass up on that.
RE: If they wait until the 4th round to go OL  
Amtoft : 4/18/2014 1:10 pm : link
In comment 11626319 Phil in LA said:
Quote:
after not finding a starting OL after round 2 since 2003, I will save the remote and throw the TV.


Phil I wouldn't watch the draft on a TV you like then... I can easily see them going DT, TE, DE, WR in their first 3 picks and all important positions... They may not take one until the 5th really depending on who falls. We have so many needs.
I can't see how the Giants  
drkenneth : 4/18/2014 1:22 pm : link
draft at least 1 OL in the first 3 rounds. I think this draft is offense all the way.

It's about #1- Protecting Eli & #2- Giving Eli more weapons.
I can't see how they don't.  
drkenneth : 4/18/2014 1:23 pm : link
...
I agree with your overall assessment...  
Wonderphil11 : 4/18/2014 2:09 pm : link
and would also put the following players in the "safe" category:

CJ Mosley
Ha Ha Clinton Dix

Obviously, there are a few players who I assume will be off the board at 12 who would also be considered "safe" (Mack, Evans or Matthews) but I think Mosley and Dix will be there and I wouldn't be totally shocked to see one of them picked at 12 if, for example, the QBs drop, Donald is gone, Martin is gone or they feel they can wait on the Oline. I might also add Beckham Jr. to this list as it seems like he could come in and contribute right away at the pro level.
When on the clock  
JonC : 4/18/2014 2:33 pm : link
I was told the draft board had Cordy Glenn right there with Wilson, and they picked Wilson's explosive skillset over concerns with Glenn's work ethic. Fwiw.
Poor draft for NYG DEs  
JonC : 4/18/2014 2:35 pm : link
unless they like a Crichton or Jeffcoat, there's little to pick from in the premium rounds. Perhaps Aaron Lynch a bit later.
Demarcus Lawrence is something of an Osi clone.  
Klaatu : 4/18/2014 3:27 pm : link
Same size, same propensity for forcing fumbles. Kony Ealy fits the profile of a Giants-type DE, so does Kareem Martin and so do a few others. The thing is, in this draft I can see the Giants not drafting a DE prospect anywhere, unless the value is overwhelming in a particular round. Signing Ayers after losing Tuck was a good move, even if Ayers has been something of an underachiever since he came into the league. The hope is that JPP rebounds and Moore develops. Kiwi has to be replaced eventually, but it may not be this year, what with all of our other needs.
Yankee  
Percy : 4/18/2014 4:24 pm : link
Agree about sticking with "safe" picks as defined at least for rounds 1-3. Don't agree with the suggested picks, though (except Martin). Our most pressing needs are TE and OL. The TE picked has to be able to start immediately and, given the question marks at OT and G (maybe even at C, though that seems less of an immediate concern), maybe one of the others as well. There are terrific prospects at each of these positions in this draft and I believe we'll go BPA in rounds 1-3, but only for those positions -- depending on how they grade out and who's actually available. Our other needs, and there are many, are for the later rounds or some other time, in my view (just an old fan).
If Donald  
bc4life : 4/18/2014 4:34 pm : link
Lewan and Martin are there, which will not be the case. They probably take Martin or Lewan.

I think Donald will be gone. And, if the scuttlebutt is accurate - it'll be Martin.

Then maybe Hageman in Round 2. Not sure he is as risky a pick as some think.
and no way Matthews  
bc4life : 4/18/2014 4:39 pm : link
drops to 12, just ain't going to happen. He could be first OL off the borad
Fixing the OL is job 1  
Phil in LA : 4/18/2014 4:43 pm : link
you don't need WR's or TE's if your QB is dead. And you don't need a pass rush if the other team can just run the ball and not worry about you scoring.
RE: the development of Jernigan and Randle  
bc4life : 4/18/2014 4:46 pm : link
Going to be interesting see whether this new offense is more friendly towards them.

And, they will absolutely take a OL in one of the 1st three rounds.

RE: the high character guys - don't forget they took a chance on Jerry and Thurmon.

JonC - RE: work ethic - sometimes that's fixable and sometimes a guy is just a lazy piece of crap.
OL is far from settled  
bc4life : 4/18/2014 4:49 pm : link
Schwartz seems to be the only sure thing.

Jerry, Walton, Brown - hopefully they will be solutions to last year's worst OL showing ever, but it's uncertain as of right now.

Based on last year's performance, Pugh was the only one who definitely earned the right to return.
bc  
JonC : 4/19/2014 9:54 am : link
For sure, but I haven't Glenn to know which case he is. But I was told he had major bearing on NYG passing him over.
I can't see the Giants waiting until Rd 4 to draft OL  
PatersonPlank : 4/19/2014 10:47 am : link
Rd 4 players are usually not impact players (at least not right away), and they need another OL player. I see them going OL in Rd 1 and maybe even another in Rd2 or 3.
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