So this is a question that has been on my mind for a while…are the Giants changing how they view the draft? I think, and this has been somewhat supported by some of John Mara’s comments, that the Giants have viewed the draft as an opportunity to hit home runs. They view every pick as an opportunity to get an all-pro and that prompts them to discard athletes without top tier measurables, look for lower division players who may have been passed over and look for players who were once considered elite but have slipped due to injury. I suspect the focus in the evaluation process was always on the ceiling.
I think that’s a pretty sound way to approach the draft. If you can come out of the draft with an all-pro from the second or even third day it is going to be huge and you can afford a number of busts in the draft as holes can be plugged in free agency if you are landing starters or even stars every once in a while. I think the trouble comes when you miss on a lot of, if not all of those picks (for varying reasons) and you are left with a bunch of low floor types. It impacts your special teams, your roster continuity and depth is of course an issue.
So what is the alternative? Well I guess it is to focus not just on a prospect’s ceiling but also their floor. It is all very well to take the Bardens, Beckums, Robinsons, Sintims, Austins of the world in the first half of the draft and assume they’ll overcome steps up, injuries/time out or position changes etc but the question has to be asked what is the risk of them not making that adaption and what does it leave you with if they don’t.
So, if there has been a bit of a re-think I guess we should expect that the Giants might look at the big conferences, shy away from players with injury issues and emphasise senior season production a little bit more than they previously have. I’m sure ceiling will still be the key variable but I’m thinking the floor is perhaps going to be a little bit more of a discussion than it previously has been. In fact, one wonders if this shift is not already in progress. Our first 3 round picks have been more conservative the last two years whilst the third day picks have carried a higher risk profile. It’ll be interesting to see if this continues…
There are a few cases where we took a chance, knowing we were taking a chance, knowing if we hit on this guy maybe we would knock it out of the park and if we missed, we missed. And we missed entirely. That’s going to happen.
Yes, Jones in particular might be the kind of guy they go for in the later rounds more...but I'm more concerned about the top 100 type picks. Hopefully no more Austin with his sabbatical, Barden type projects or Sintim with his positional swaps. I'm not saying every pick will work out but for many years we nailed the second round. We need to get back to that.
However, when too many of them don't pan out and your vets age, you then need to adjust your strategy. I think we've reached that point at many positions - particularly along the offensive line and at TE.
In previous drafts the OL positions were set. So OL selections in the draft were for potential OT types - guys with athleticism who had the ceiling of a LT. We didn't draft a lot of guys who had the ceiling of a G. Now we have need at G, so in the later rounds you might see selections of natural guards who do not project to T but have a good floor as a G.
I think last year we saw the beginning of this trend, with the selection of Herman, and I think we will see this continue this year - later picks will likely be guys who have a lower ceiling but a higher floor as interior linemen, as we clearly have positional need there.