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NFT: A fun Friday Mets internet trade rumor

Danny Kanell : 7/18/2014 11:47 am
Seems to be making the rounds on Facebook, no idea where it came from but could be an interesting conversation.

D'Arnaud, Niese and either Montero or Syndergaard + a prospect for Tulo.

Tulo's locked up through 2020.

Have at it, folks.
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It's  
DanMetroMan : 7/18/2014 11:52 am : link
not a real rumor. The talking heads on SNY said that's what they would give up.
Matt Cerrone  
CMicks3110 : 7/18/2014 11:52 am : link
on Metsblog posted the rumour a few days ago. I would do Niese, D'arnaud and montero, or Niese, Plawecki and Syndergaard, i wouldn't give up both d'arnaud and syndergaard though.
from metsblog  
CMicks3110 : 7/18/2014 11:54 am : link

Quote:
I still think Tulowitzki is Aldersons White Whale and Ive heard from friends in Colorado that Jon Niese, Travis dArnaud and a top pitching prospect can get it done. But, well see

http://metsblog.com/page/2/ - ( New Window )
He  
DanMetroMan : 7/18/2014 11:55 am : link
also suggested he heard Ike Davis for Ryan Braun was possible while Ike Davis for Aoki was not... he's a nice guy with a solid site but his trade rumor stuff is ALWAYS off.
Gotcha  
Danny Kanell : 7/18/2014 11:56 am : link
Should I delete or do you guys want to keep this up for discussion sake?
Rockies can get a much bigger package  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 11:57 am : link
Then that for Tulo.
November-  
DanMetroMan : 7/18/2014 11:58 am : link
Quote:
There is a better chance the Brewers trade OF Ryan Braun for Mets 1B Ike Davis than deal OF Norichika Aoki, according to people familiar with the teams thinking.
-Matt Cerrone


Aoki was letter traded for... Will Smith
pass  
chris r : 7/18/2014 11:59 am : link
he's an 820 OPS guy away from Coors for his career - good but not worth a ton of prospects and salary.
Keep the discussion going  
CMicks3110 : 7/18/2014 11:59 am : link
DMM, What do you think it would take to get Tulowitzki.

I would say the Mets might actually be a good match for them from a pitching point of view. We have a few pitchers such as Montero/DeGrom/Wheeler who have performed well enough in harsh pitching environments (las vegas) to appeal to Colorado. Would something like Wheeler/Plawecki/Flores for Tulo get it done?
Absolutely  
DanMetroMan : 7/18/2014 12:01 pm : link
no idea what he would cost. I was just mentioning to my eyes this isn't even close to a real "rumor" (not at all knocking that it was posted). This is just talking head stuff. I'm sure 100% Thor and one of the catchers would be the starting point of any trade however.
Tulo's numbers on the road  
oipolloi : 7/18/2014 12:03 pm : link
.820 OPS
.275 BA

At Citi, he is a guy who hits .280 with 20 HR. Very good numbers for a SS but not the powerhouse hitter that everybody sees in Colorado.

RE: Tulo's numbers on the road  
Deej : 7/18/2014 12:24 pm : link
In comment 11772146 oipolloi said:
Quote:
.820 OPS
.275 BA

At Citi, he is a guy who hits .280 with 20 HR. Very good numbers for a SS but not the powerhouse hitter that everybody sees in Colorado.


Well if you want to extrapolate his career #s at Citi, he's on about a 63 HR pace. Career 1.368 OPS in New Shea.
Tulo's splits in previous years were less than this year and  
Ira : 7/18/2014 12:45 pm : link
some of the split has to do with playing at a home park rather than at the higher altitude. But I don't see any real source for this rumor, so let's not get worked up about it.
I'd rather  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 12:58 pm : link
use that same package or similar and trade for Stanton.

Then hope the Blue Jays fall flat and give up their drive to compete in the AL East (though this is the year to do it) and in a salary dump they trade Reyes to the Mets.

Reyes is still owed at least 70M after this year.

Stanton and Reyes > Tulo and ? probably

Almost every player in baseball has better home #s then road #s  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 1:14 pm : link
Giancarlo Stanton has a 1.012 home OPS and an .850 away OPS.

Andrew McCutchen has a 1.097 home OPS and an .887 away.

Neither of those guys are SS's or really even plus defenders.

Tulo is one of the 5 best players in baseball. His ONLY knock is injuries.

Regardless you won't get Stanton or Tulo  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 1:14 pm : link
with either of those packages.
Ok  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 1:31 pm : link
glad we have an expert who knows what package will land everyone.

Tulo is over 30 and owed over 120M and has proven he's a legit injury concern.

but you know for a fact what will land him and it's not a cost controlled middle to upper rotation starter cost controlled for 4 more years (Niese) and two top 20 prospects (Thor and TdA). If you say so.

Ok, thanks for your OPINION.
Tulo is one of the top trade assets in baseball  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 1:49 pm : link
Fangraphs just put out there top 50 players trade value list and Tulo was #6. He is underpaid by basically any standard, and is not even close to the end of his prime yet. He is easily one of the top 5 players in baseball and realistically the strong #2.

Shocker though that the fan of a team thinks they can get one of the best players in baseball for a good, but not great package, but then feel that maybe TULO is the guy not even worth the deal lol. This is what Fangraphs said about Tulo:


Quote:
For the most part, the top half of this list is full of guys whose trade value is basically unknowable, because theyre just too valuable to get traded. Guys this good, on contracts this reasonable, dont get moved. Depending on what the Rockies decide to do this winter, though, we might just find out what the trade value of the games second best player really is.

Its going to take a ridiculous haul to get him out of Colorado, though, and rightfully so. Even with $130 million left on his deal, Tulowitzki is making about a little more than half of his market value. As a six win player, Tulo is worth something in the range of $35 to $40 million to per year, so while he might not be cheap, hes still an amazing value, even while making $20 million per season.

Its legitimately difficult to imagine what a package for Tulowitzki might cost an acquiring team. Theres basically no such thing as an off-limits player in that kind of deal. If Colorado decides to move him, we might end up seeing baseballs version of the Herschel Walker trade.

Fan graphs top 10 - ( New Window )
RE: Tulo is one of the top trade assets in baseball  
chris r : 7/18/2014 1:52 pm : link
In comment 11772304 Sgrcts said:
Quote:
Fangraphs just put out there top 50 players trade value list and Tulo was #6. He is underpaid by basically any standard, and is not even close to the end of his prime yet. He is easily one of the top 5 players in baseball and realistically the strong #2.

Shocker though that the fan of a team thinks they can get one of the best players in baseball for a good, but not great package, but then feel that maybe TULO is the guy not even worth the deal lol. This is what Fangraphs said about Tulo:




Quote:


For the most part, the top half of this list is full of guys whose trade value is basically unknowable, because theyre just too valuable to get traded. Guys this good, on contracts this reasonable, dont get moved. Depending on what the Rockies decide to do this winter, though, we might just find out what the trade value of the games second best player really is.

Its going to take a ridiculous haul to get him out of Colorado, though, and rightfully so. Even with $130 million left on his deal, Tulowitzki is making about a little more than half of his market value. As a six win player, Tulo is worth something in the range of $35 to $40 million to per year, so while he might not be cheap, hes still an amazing value, even while making $20 million per season.

Its legitimately difficult to imagine what a package for Tulowitzki might cost an acquiring team. Theres basically no such thing as an off-limits player in that kind of deal. If Colorado decides to move him, we might end up seeing baseballs version of the Herschel Walker trade.

Fan graphs top 10 - ( New Window )


He's not one of the top five players in baseball on any other team but Colorado.
The team I am a fan of  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 2:05 pm : link
has little to do with it.

the certainty with your post has everything to do with it.

Show me trade scenarios that yielded more than that.

Your precedent for claiming this package (Niese, Thor, TdA, + a prospect) would not yield a top 10 player?

Ken Griffey Jr in his prime didn't net more than the rumored (or made up) package mentioned here.
Rockies  
Rory : 7/18/2014 2:12 pm : link
are fithing for a WC and are contenders, why would they trade their best player away.
Sgrets I have no idea if Colorado wants to trade him  
bhill410 : 7/18/2014 2:24 pm : link
But a tda, Neise and syndergarden is probably the best package any player on the trade market can expect to get. Name me one trade that has occurred since 95 that was as good as two top 20 prospects and an established pitcher under a team friendly contract with a sub 3 era. For purposes of this post I will still consider tda a prospect though he is officially no longer one.
RE: RE: Tulo is one of the top trade assets in baseball  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 2:28 pm : link
In comment 11772309 chris r said:
Quote:
In comment 11772304 Sgrcts said:


Quote:


Fangraphs just put out there top 50 players trade value list and Tulo was #6. He is underpaid by basically any standard, and is not even close to the end of his prime yet. He is easily one of the top 5 players in baseball and realistically the strong #2.

Shocker though that the fan of a team thinks they can get one of the best players in baseball for a good, but not great package, but then feel that maybe TULO is the guy not even worth the deal lol. This is what Fangraphs said about Tulo:




Quote:


For the most part, the top half of this list is full of guys whose trade value is basically unknowable, because theyre just too valuable to get traded. Guys this good, on contracts this reasonable, dont get moved. Depending on what the Rockies decide to do this winter, though, we might just find out what the trade value of the games second best player really is.

Its going to take a ridiculous haul to get him out of Colorado, though, and rightfully so. Even with $130 million left on his deal, Tulowitzki is making about a little more than half of his market value. As a six win player, Tulo is worth something in the range of $35 to $40 million to per year, so while he might not be cheap, hes still an amazing value, even while making $20 million per season.

Its legitimately difficult to imagine what a package for Tulowitzki might cost an acquiring team. Theres basically no such thing as an off-limits player in that kind of deal. If Colorado decides to move him, we might end up seeing baseballs version of the Herschel Walker trade.

Fan graphs top 10 - ( New Window )



He's not one of the top five players in baseball on any other team but Colorado.


As usual, you have no idea what you are talking about. Why should I be surprised?
RE: Rockies  
Deej : 7/18/2014 2:34 pm : link
In comment 11772346 Rory said:
Quote:
are fithing for a WC and are contenders, why would they trade their best player away.


Rockies have the second worst record in the NL, no? Are you looking at old standings?\
RE: The team I am a fan of  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 2:34 pm : link
In comment 11772334 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
has little to do with it.

the certainty with your post has everything to do with it.

Show me trade scenarios that yielded more than that.

Your precedent for claiming this package (Niese, Thor, TdA, + a prospect) would not yield a top 10 player?

Ken Griffey Jr in his prime didn't net more than the rumored (or made up) package mentioned here.


Not true- as the Mariners got Cameron coming off a 5.5 WAR season, the #16 prospect in baseball, and Brett Tomko, formerly a big prospect as well.

NEVER MIND the fact that Griffey was a rental and Tulo is signed until 2020 at a VERY under market contract. Tulos current trade value is easily higher then Griffeys was at the time.
I don't agree with  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 2:42 pm : link
Tulo being north of 30 and owed at least 120M , his deal is below market.

I think the fact he is signed for so much is a negative, not a positive, especially with his injury history or at best it's a neutral, not something weighing heavily in his favor as you indicate. If he was 25 sure, but he's over 30 before next season.

Also, Tomko was rated the #84 prospect in 1997 and was never on a prospect list after that. He was a back of the rotation starter.

Where are the deals you are using as a precedent as for what kind of deal will land Tulo?



RE: I don't agree with  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 2:50 pm : link
In comment 11772394 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Tulo being north of 30 and owed at least 120M , his deal is below market.

I think the fact he is signed for so much is a negative, not a positive, especially with his injury history or at best it's a neutral, not something weighing heavily in his favor as you indicate. If he was 25 sure, but he's over 30 before next season.

Also, Tomko was rated the #84 prospect in 1997 and was never on a prospect list after that. He was a back of the rotation starter.

Where are the deals you are using as a precedent as for what kind of deal will land Tulo?




Then you are wrong. For one, Tulo is south of 30(he's 29), and for two, he is getting paid WAY less then he would on the open market. He is making WAY less then Cano does, as an example, despite being a far superior player.

Cano entering his age 31 season, Cano signed a 10 year, 240 million dollar deal.

If Tulo was a free agent next season entering his age 30 season, he would easily eclipse that. Instead, you are getting him through 2020, when he will be 36.

He will be making 20 million a year until he is 35, when his salary goes down to a bargain 14MM AND there is a team option for 15MM for his age 36 season if he still is playing at a high level.

Compare that to Jose Reyes, who will be making 22 MM through his age 35 season, with a team option for 22MM for his age 36 season.

Tulo is a BARGAIN.
Tulo is a true talent  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 2:54 pm : link
8 WAR player. He is the best SS in the league and an absolute stud. He put up 5.5 WAR last year in only 126 games.
For those who feel Tulo's contract is a bargain  
Shecky : 7/18/2014 2:55 pm : link
Keep in my mind he can opt out if he is traded
RE: RE: RE: Tulo is one of the top trade assets in baseball  
chris r : 7/18/2014 2:56 pm : link
In comment 11772369 Sgrcts said:
Quote:
In comment 11772309 chris r said:


Quote:


In comment 11772304 Sgrcts said:


Quote:


Fangraphs just put out there top 50 players trade value list and Tulo was #6. He is underpaid by basically any standard, and is not even close to the end of his prime yet. He is easily one of the top 5 players in baseball and realistically the strong #2.

Shocker though that the fan of a team thinks they can get one of the best players in baseball for a good, but not great package, but then feel that maybe TULO is the guy not even worth the deal lol. This is what Fangraphs said about Tulo:




Quote:


For the most part, the top half of this list is full of guys whose trade value is basically unknowable, because theyre just too valuable to get traded. Guys this good, on contracts this reasonable, dont get moved. Depending on what the Rockies decide to do this winter, though, we might just find out what the trade value of the games second best player really is.

Its going to take a ridiculous haul to get him out of Colorado, though, and rightfully so. Even with $130 million left on his deal, Tulowitzki is making about a little more than half of his market value. As a six win player, Tulo is worth something in the range of $35 to $40 million to per year, so while he might not be cheap, hes still an amazing value, even while making $20 million per season.

Its legitimately difficult to imagine what a package for Tulowitzki might cost an acquiring team. Theres basically no such thing as an off-limits player in that kind of deal. If Colorado decides to move him, we might end up seeing baseballs version of the Herschel Walker trade.

Fan graphs top 10 - ( New Window )



He's not one of the top five players in baseball on any other team but Colorado.



As usual, you have no idea what you are talking about. Why should I be surprised?


Every single stat you can find shows him to be significantly worse out of Colorado then in Colorado. His away stats are more indicative of a borderline top 30 player then a top 5 player. Given that the Mets and every other team in baseball DO NOT PLAY ONE MILE IN THE AIR, why in Gods green earth would you evaluate him using his Colorado stats? Its worse then dumb.
Agree with Sgcrts here  
Deej : 7/18/2014 2:58 pm : link
Tulo is a bargain compared to UFA prices. Hard to look at what Choo and Ellsbury got and think that Tulo @ 20 thru his mid 30s is not WAY below market.
No one thinks  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 2:59 pm : link
the Cano deal is a good one, Reyes signed a backloaded deal so he's a bad example.

You can't say because teams signed other players to terrible deals that Tulo is a bargain.

A contract like Evan Longoria is one i'd say is more of a bargain. Though he's a lesser player at a less prime position, still more of a bargain.

Also, you're not considering this is by a lot the best start Tulo has had to a season in his career - this would be textbook selling/buying high.

I still haven't seen the precedent you're using to estimate what it would take to acquire Tulo?

RE: RE: RE: RE: Tulo is one of the top trade assets in baseball  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 3:00 pm : link
In comment 11772413 chris r said:
Quote:


Every single stat you can find shows him to be significantly worse out of Colorado then in Colorado. His away stats are more indicative of a borderline top 30 player then a top 5 player. Given that the Mets and every other team in baseball DO NOT PLAY ONE MILE IN THE AIR, why in Gods green earth would you evaluate him using his Colorado stats? Its worse then dumb.


Again, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER IN BASEBALL IS SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE ON THE ROAD THEN AT HOME. Whats worse then dumb is being woefully ignorant and then pretending as if you know anything, period. At least be yourself man and just accept you have no idea what you are talking about.
.  
arcarsenal : 7/18/2014 3:00 pm : link
Tulo may have some slightly inflated Coors numbers but I don't think it's totally fair to just assume his road splits are the exact player he'd be on another team.

Small sample but he's had no problems hitting at Citi when he's been here as a visitor. Most guys will typically find an advantage at their home park.
RE: For those who feel Tulo's contract is a bargain  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 3:00 pm : link
In comment 11772411 Shecky said:
Quote:
Keep in my mind he can opt out if he is traded


This is not true, at least not that I've heard or can find on the google.
I agree  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 3:02 pm : link
players home road splits aren't an end all be all, and for most the home #'s are better regardless of park.

but...is there one example of a player who left Coors and even maintained his production? there might be, I just can't think of one.
RE: No one thinks  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 3:02 pm : link
In comment 11772421 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
the Cano deal is a good one, Reyes signed a backloaded deal so he's a bad example.

You can't say because teams signed other players to terrible deals that Tulo is a bargain.

A contract like Evan Longoria is one i'd say is more of a bargain. Though he's a lesser player at a less prime position, still more of a bargain.

Also, you're not considering this is by a lot the best start Tulo has had to a season in his career - this would be textbook selling/buying high.

I still haven't seen the precedent you're using to estimate what it would take to acquire Tulo?


Longarias contract is better, but he is a far worse player. There really is no precedent for Tulo in a trade because there trading a top 5 player in all of baseball who is signed to an incredibly cheap contract for another 6 years has basically never happened.

So if there is no precedent  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 3:04 pm : link
how you can speak in absolutes about what it would take to acquire the player.

Answer: you can't.
RE: I agree  
arcarsenal : 7/18/2014 3:06 pm : link
In comment 11772427 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
players home road splits aren't an end all be all, and for most the home #'s are better regardless of park.

but...is there one example of a player who left Coors and even maintained his production? there might be, I just can't think of one.


There's probably not a long list of players putting up the numbers he does that left in the middle of their career from there, so.. hard to tell.

Helton spent his entire career there. I can't think of anyone else who could fit similar criteria.
RE: I agree  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 3:06 pm : link
In comment 11772427 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
players home road splits aren't an end all be all, and for most the home #'s are better regardless of park.

but...is there one example of a player who left Coors and even maintained his production? there might be, I just can't think of one.


Lets play a game here. Lets PRETEND that Tulo is an .820 OPS SS, and he will never hit better then an .820 OPS. How many SS's in baseball have a better then .820 OPS?

One, Hanley Ramirez, who also has a .906 home OPS and a .773 road OPS. He also happens to be a horrid defender, which Tulo isn't.

So even at an .820 OPS, Tulo is the best SS in baseball. How is that not a bargain?
You said TOP 5 player in baseball  
chris r : 7/18/2014 3:09 pm : link
would you say that an .820 OPS Tulo is a top 5 player in baseball?
.  
arcarsenal : 7/18/2014 3:10 pm : link
I guess there's Matt Holliday. He was really good in StL after leaving COL but he's obviously hitting a decline now.
Bargain  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 3:11 pm : link
part I will concede, I had no idea how many players today make over 20M per season.

I was wrong there.

so many of these contract I feel like will be regretted (Ryan Howard 25M holy crap, Joe Mauer 23M the next 3 years, holy crap.

I was still thinking 20M is sort of the pinnacle.

I guess it's not.

It was a part of my argument, small part anyway.

Still think you have no way to know what the package of players would need to look like to land Tulo.

RE: So if there is no precedent  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 3:11 pm : link
In comment 11772433 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
how you can speak in absolutes about what it would take to acquire the player.

Answer: you can't.


yes, you can. If there is no precedent, and you are offering a mediocre package that many other teams can top, then its pretty easy to say that deal isn't enough. Unless you think a #3 starter, a 25 year old catcher with crazy injury history and no production, a top young pitching prospect but one who is having a horrid year in a terrible place to pitch and a "prospect" is worth a top 3 player in baseball on an incredibly cheap contract is a fair deal, in which case take off the mets underoos and be realistic.
RE: You said TOP 5 player in baseball  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 3:13 pm : link
In comment 11772443 chris r said:
Quote:
would you say that an .820 OPS Tulo is a top 5 player in baseball?


Who cares, Tulo is not an .820 OPS player. Even by your dumb argument, Tulo as an .820 road player would be worth an additional 100 points OPS at home no matter WHERE he played. An .880 Tulo is most definitely a top 5 player in baseball.
GUYS! Your time is now.  
GiantFilthy : 7/18/2014 3:13 pm : link
Quote:
Ken RosenthalVerified
‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Braves cutting ties with Uggla.
When you phrase  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 3:17 pm : link
it that way, you lose credibility because you highlight the negative and sound like you have an agenda to make the deal sound worse

Instead of how you said it, try:

A lefty mid-to upper rotation starter cost controlled through 2019

A 25 year old, who is the consensus #1 catching prospect in all of baseball

a 21-year old top 15 pitching prospect with a upper 90's fastball and a "hook from hell"

+ a prospect

sounds fair.

RE: When you phrase  
Sgrcts : 7/18/2014 3:19 pm : link
In comment 11772451 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
it that way, you lose credibility because you highlight the negative and sound like you have an agenda to make the deal sound worse

Instead of how you said it, try:

A lefty mid-to upper rotation starter cost controlled through 2019

A 25 year old, who is the consensus #1 catching prospect in all of baseball

a 21-year old top 15 pitching prospect with a upper 90's fastball and a "hook from hell"

+ a prospect

sounds fair.


TDA is not the consensus #1 catching prospect in baseball, and his value is heading in the wrong direction.

Niese is a #3 pitcher. He's not better then that and he's not worse then that.

Thor is a stud pitching prospect.

Are you implying that many teams in baseball can't beat that package? Hell, the mets can beat that package.
Of course the Mets  
pjcas18 : 7/18/2014 3:24 pm : link
can beat that, and of course other teams can beat it.

that wasn't the point.

You said that package won't land Tulo or Stanton.

A similar or worse package to that relatively speaking landed Miggy Cabrera and he was a top 5 player in baseball or top 10 at the worst, plus he was 24 years old and a better financial bargain that Tulo.

I'd be interested if you can find a player  
kmed : 7/18/2014 3:29 pm : link
with such a difference home and away for their careers. You gave 2 examples earlier McCutcheon and Stanton and used this years stats, but when you look at their careers, there's not such a drastic difference home and away. Their home stats are slightly better, but nothing insane like Tulo. Same with other star players like Miggy. Same with a guy like Pujols. None have the drastic splits that Tulo has over their careers. I'd be very wary of trading major pieces for him. Plus he's very injury prone.
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