NFT: A fun Friday Mets internet trade rumor

Do you want any of my boys?

Matt kemp
Andre Ethier
Scott Van Slyke
Joc Pederson
Alex Guerrero

Let me know.

In comment 11772460 kmed said:

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with such a difference home and away for their careers. You gave 2 examples earlier McCutcheon and Stanton and used this years stats, but when you look at their careers, there's not such a drastic difference home and away. Their home stats are slightly better, but nothing insane like Tulo. Same with other star players like Miggy. Same with a guy like Pujols. None have the drastic splits that Tulo has over their careers. I'd be very wary of trading major pieces for him. Plus he's very injury prone.

Tulo's last 3 year average is a .946 home ops and an .873 road ops. That is not a drastic split. Giancarlo's is .987 and .821.

Where is the drastic split? An .873 OPS with ++ glove at the most important position on D is a mega star. That's without any improvement in his home OPS, which happens to basically every player.

In comment 11772464 Spock said:

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Do you want any of my boys? Matt kemp Andre Ethier Scott Van Slyke Joc Pederson Alex Guerrero Let me know.

I'd avoid Kemp and Ethier like the plague, the others I'd be interested in, I like Guerrero more if he could play SS, I don't think that's realistic from what I've read.

for Stanton....

In comment 11772460 kmed said:

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with such a difference home and away for their careers. You gave 2 examples earlier McCutcheon and Stanton and used this years stats, but when you look at their careers, there's not such a drastic difference home and away. Their home stats are slightly better, but nothing insane like Tulo. Same with other star players like Miggy. Same with a guy like Pujols. None have the drastic splits that Tulo has over their careers. I'd be very wary of trading major pieces for him. Plus he's very injury prone.

Career 140 OPS is a big split. Havent dont a full analysis, but non-Rockies like Posada and Chipper were in the 80 range (I think 40 is standard, not sure). Teixeira is a robust 120, and Michael Young was 110, but both played in Arlington.

This is the guy who said there were 20 better young pitchers than Matt Harvey last year.

Why did you choose to take 3 years for Tulo?

Over his career which has been in Colorado...

481 games at home- .323 BA/ .397 OBP/ .962 OPS
478 games on road- .275 BA/ .349 OBP/ .820 OPS

Pretty drastic if you ask me.

Stanton:

293 games at home- .282 BA/ .384 OBP/ .931 OPS
290 games on road- .259 BA/ .338 OBP/ .862 OPS

In comment 11772476 kmed said:

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Why did you choose to take 3 years for Tulo? Over his career which has been in Colorado... 481 games at home- .323 BA/ .397 OBP/ .962 OPS 478 games on road- .275 BA/ .349 OBP/ .820 OPS Pretty drastic if you ask me. Stanton: 293 games at home- .282 BA/ .384 OBP/ .931 OPS 290 games on road- .259 BA/ .338 OBP/ .862 OPS

Because what he did in 2007 is not instructive to this discussion. 3 years is by far a large enough sample size to discuss what his true talent player level is.

Career home OPS 913, road 787. But his Fenway OPS was 998, and a website I cant vouch for says that in the same seasons, his home OPS was 781. Yikes.

Miggy:

878 games at home- .327 BA/ .407 OBP/ .986 OPS
872 games on road- .313 BA/ .388 OBP/ .942 OPS

McCutchen:

416 games at home- .315 BA/ .402 OBP/ .924 OPS
411 games on road- .284 BA/ .369 OBP/ .844 OPS

David Wright:

731 games at home- .301 BA/ .390 OBP/ .895 OPS
731 games on road- .299 BA/ .370 OBP/ .867 OPS

Ryan Braun:

513 games at home- .309 BA/ .378 OPB/ .954 OPS
504 games on road- .313 BA/ .367 OBP/ .912 OPS

Robinson Cano:

725 games at home- .307 BA/ .353 OBP/ .856 OPS
740 games on road- .314 BA/ .362 OBP/ .862 OPS

So, you were saying?

Tulo's stats are inflated being at Coors, it's not even a question to me. Nobody else has splits like that and not everyone hits better at home, but the majority of players probably do. So if you look at his road numbers and improve them a bit. I think it's safe to assume that on a different team, Tulo would be:

.295 BA/ .385 OBP/ .890 OPS type of player.

Maybe .295 with 20 HR's, 90 RBI

I'd compare him offensively to Matt Holiday, but a SS. Whats that worth?

Miggy is a 1019 hitter at Comerica though. 936 at Sun Life, which was a pitchers park. The thinking on Wright is that Citi totally screws with him (especially Citi 1.0).

MLB wide split this season is +23 OPS to the home team, and it was +21 home last year.

In comment 11772493 kmed said:

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Tulo's stats are inflated being at Coors, it's not even a question to me. Nobody else has splits like that and not everyone hits better at home, but the majority of players probably do. So if you look at his road numbers and improve them a bit. I think it's safe to assume that on a different team, Tulo would be: .295 BA/ .385 OBP/ .890 OPS type of player. Maybe .295 with 20 HR's, 90 RBI

What you've just described is the best SS in baseball. Wow, what a horrible downside he has!

I'm trying to say that he would still be a great player outside of Coors, just not nearly the best hitter in baseball. He'd certainly be the best SS in baseball.

In comment 11772497 kmed said:

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I'd compare him offensively to Matt Holiday, but a SS. Whats that worth?

Matt Holiday as a SS is an 8 WAR player. AKA the best SS in baseball and one of the top 5 players in the sport.

In comment 11772502 kmed said:

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I'm trying to say that he would still be a great player outside of Coors, just not nearly the best hitter in baseball. He'd certainly be the best SS in baseball.

No one is saying he is the best hitter in baseball. Trout is the best everything in baseball.

and the extent to which you presented it:

Again, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER IN BASEBALL IS SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE ON THE ROAD THEN AT HOME. Whats worse then dumb is being woefully ignorant and then pretending as if you know anything, period. At least be yourself man and just accept you have no idea what you are talking about.

I am not really disagreeing with you regarding Tulo. I would absolutely want him and no matter where he plays, he's the best SS in baseball. All I am saying is that his numbers won't be anywhere near what they are now, they are def inflated due to the Coors factor.

I honestly cannot see a single team offering a better package than that. Now if you are asking me whether I would make that trade as the mets my answer is hell no.

In comment 11772497 kmed said:

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I'd compare him offensively to Matt Holiday, but a SS. Whats that worth?

A lot. Look at the contract Granderson got to play OF at 33-36 based on a projection of probably high 700s OPS. Look at what Ellbury and Choo got. Cano ONLY got $25 million per, but they have to pay him that salary thru age 40.

If Tulo is expected to be an 8 WAR player, he's worth 60 million per season on the open market based on last year's payout of $7.5mm/WAR. 6 WAR he's still worth $45mm. Obviously no one is giving him that much because of things like injury risk and age-decline. But it's hard to argue that at $20mm for term that he's not a significant bargain wherever he plays, especially in a world where the TV revenue is just exploding.

I'd say on the open market, he should be compared to Cano, no question.

In comment 11772506 kmed said:

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and the extent to which you presented it: Again, EVERY SINGLE PLAYER IN BASEBALL IS SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE ON THE ROAD THEN AT HOME. Whats worse then dumb is being woefully ignorant and then pretending as if you know anything, period. At least be yourself man and just accept you have no idea what you are talking about.

Every player is significantly worse on the road then home. Tulo is not that much worse on the road then he is at home, and the #s presented back me up on that. A 3 year sample size is more instructive then career stats, as Tulo might have been more of a product of Coors Field when he was 25 then he is now. Players improve, so to imply that what he did as a rookie is equally relevant to what he did last year would simply be false.

In comment 11772510 bhill410 said:

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I honestly cannot see a single team offering a better package than that. Now if you are asking me whether I would make that trade as the mets my answer is hell no.

Is that because you aren't familiar with other teams farm systems?

The Red Sox can't beat that offer? The Astros can't beat that offer? The Pirates can't beat that offer? The Cubs can't beat that offer? The Twins can't beat that offer? The Royals can't beat that offer? The Rangers can't beat that offer?

And if the Mets COULD make that deal and don't, then they deserve to be as awful as they have been.

if you are trying to use stats in a way other than to look at the full picture. Using a 3 year sample size is being completely disingenuous.

Either way, it's pointless because he's a stud no matter where he plays.

In comment 11772522 kmed said:

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if you are trying to use stats in a way other than to look at the full picture. Using a 3 year sample size is being completely disingenuous. Either way, it's pointless because he's a stud no matter where he plays.

OK So should we judge Jose Bautista as a player based on who he is now or who he was then? Carlos Gomez? Alex Gordon? Adam Jones?

As a trade piece is his value what he did when was 23 and 24? Or what he's done over the past few years?

Bautista was a guy that exploded out of nowhere. He wasn't close to the same player after. Gomez is a young player that finally found a groove. Tulo was a stud 7 years ago. There's no reason not to look at his splits from then to now.

Even still, the splits are the splits regardless of overall production. Bautista's splits shouldn't be much different then than they are now, just at a smaller scale.

it's dumb to argue at this point. We agree regarding Tulo. I believe that he has drastic splits which are abnormal to the rest of baseball, you don't. We both agree that no matter where he plays, he's the best SS in baseball and on the open market he should and would command a contract similar to Cano's.

that he was in 2008. If we were discussing that, you'd have a point. We are discussing his splits home and away. He was in Coors 6 years ago for half his games, it should absolutely be factored into his splits.

In comment 11772515 kmed said:

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I'd say on the open market, he should be compared to Cano, no question.

I'd value Tulo more than Cano due to position, but just taking them as equals, Tulo has a MUCH better contract. He is cheaper and doesnt saddle you with any late 30s seasons unlike Cano.

agreed, he's a bargain at his current contract.

I think you misunderstood my point(or I didn't explain it well). I'm saying IF Tulo was a FA right now, he'd be looking at a contract similar to what Cano just got.

In comment 11772534 kmed said:

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that he was in 2008. If we were discussing that, you'd have a point. We are discussing his splits home and away. He was in Coors 6 years ago for half his games, it should absolutely be factored into his splits.

But if he's not the same player, then how is it relevant?

Anyway, we're in agreement in the big picture so we can leave it at that(for once lol).

He's a better player now, but it's all relative. It's not like Bautista who is a completely different player. He's just gotten better as he's gotten older, like most do. It's all relative regarding the splits. The OPS might be lower then, but the difference should be the same. Sorry, couldn't resist explaining myself.

but that just meant Bautista had more room for overall improvement. when you are already a 5+ WAR player, its harder to find places for improvement. Maybe for Tulo its being a better road hitter.

And really- if you look at this career, this year is his worst road OPS since his first 2 seasons in the league. .850 is his lowest road OPS over the past 6 season besides this season.

for a guy making 20 mill a season. Unless the Rockies are picking up a ton of the contract.

the best pitcher in baseball at the time(Johan) with only 4 basically top 100 prospects. You never know what it will take.

that big contract and getting a huge haul of prospects.

Every off season is different and all it takes is one idiot GM to offer the moon for a position that they desperately need. Does it mean that player is "worth" that $$ or does it mean that the GM had to go above and beyond just to sign that player?

Cano? Nobody was offering anything close to the Mariners contract.

Granderson? Mets were desperate and had to offer more than everyone else.

Reyes?
Any FA the Yankees sign?

I wouldn't do it but that's a damn strong package for Tulo. You are buying on the idea that he will put up the same numbers in a Mets uniform than he does in a Rockies uniform. And it just won't happen. Plus, you'll have to pay another player $20 million per year and hope he has stats as good as David Wright.

Not that I wouldn't want him on the Mets, but I'm not crazy about giving up all that for a guy with inflated stats and that will be on the wrong side of 30 next year.

In comment 11772589 Rflairr said:

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that big contract and getting a huge haul of prospects.

Its not a big contract, its an extremely reasonable one.

Since when is $120 million over six years "not a big contract" or "extremely reasonable?"

The $24 million Cano makes is WAY more than the $20 million that Tulo makes? Lolwut?

When Tulo signed his contract it was the eight highest contract in baseball history...so, spare me with the underpaid bullshit. I'm not exactly going to go crazy comparing him with Cano's contract when that idiot Seattle GM got desperate and decided to pay him $60 million more than the next highest bid.

In comment 11772600 PhiPsi125 said:

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Since when is $120 million over six years "not a big contract" or "extremely reasonable?" The $24 million Cano makes is WAY more than the $20 million that Tulo makes? Lolwut? When Tulo signed his contract it was the eight highest contract in baseball history...so, spare me with the underpaid bullshit. I'm not exactly going to go crazy comparing him with Cano's contract when that idiot Seattle GM got desperate and decided to pay him $60 million more than the next highest bid.

You literally have zero clue of what you are talking about. Less then zero. This is what Dave Cameron said about Tulos deal:


"It’s going to take a ridiculous haul to get him out of Colorado, though, and rightfully so. Even with $130 million left on his deal, Tulowitzki is making about a little more than half of his market value. As a six win player, Tulo is worth something in the range of $35 to $40 million to per year, so while he might not be cheap, he’s still an amazing value, even while making $20 million per season."

He's signed only through his age 35 season, when he will still be a productive player. The length and per year of the deal is a bargain.

130 million through his age 35 season.

Cano is owed 240 million through his age 40 season.

how are the two deals comparable in terms of value?

In comment 11772612 Sgrcts said:

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In comment 11772600 PhiPsi125 said: Quote: Since when is $120 million over six years "not a big contract" or "extremely reasonable?" The $24 million Cano makes is WAY more than the $20 million that Tulo makes? Lolwut? When Tulo signed his contract it was the eight highest contract in baseball history...so, spare me with the underpaid bullshit. I'm not exactly going to go crazy comparing him with Cano's contract when that idiot Seattle GM got desperate and decided to pay him $60 million more than the next highest bid. You literally have zero clue of what you are talking about. Less then zero. This is what Dave Cameron said about Tulos deal: "It’s going to take a ridiculous haul to get him out of Colorado, though, and rightfully so. Even with $130 million left on his deal, Tulowitzki is making about a little more than half of his market value. As a six win player, Tulo is worth something in the range of $35 to $40 million to per year, so while he might not be cheap, he’s still an amazing value, even while making $20 million per season." He's signed only through his age 35 season, when he will still be a productive player. The length and per year of the deal is a bargain.

LOL, okay Chuck.

I'm interested in how Tulo is worth $35 to $40 million per year when there is not one player earning anything close to that...now or ever. And he's not a 6 win player...not this year and not since 2010 (unless you count his 5.9 WAR in 2011...but then we are just splitting hairs, so I'll give you that one).

And, of course this guy has a crystal ball and shares your love of absolutes by saying that he'll still be a productive player at age 35. Could he be? Sure. But 6 years a long time away for an injury prone player. That's a big leap of a statement.

I wonder what all those players with a higher WAR are worth? $50 million per year?

to start our push to the pennant
Link - ( New Window )

That is what they should use their surplus to trade for.

realistically... if they aren't planning on giving Murphy 4 years 40-50, now is 100% the time to trade him. Value will never, ever be higher.

but not a deal i'd do if I was the Mets. Value-wise it isn't enough but risk-wise it is too much. Tulo can't stay healthy and that isn't going to change.

In comment 11772654 DanMetroMan said:

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realistically... if they aren't planning on giving Murphy 4 years 40-50, now is 100% the time to trade him. Value will never, ever be higher.

unless we can pull out a 6-4 or better roadtrip then keeping him and trying to win is the play