NFT: Keith Law MLB Farm System Rankings

But... But.... TDA graduated? Syndergaard took a step back???

Sandy was brought in to rebuild this team the right way I think this is fairly important. We only need another bat or two in the offseason and we will get them. I'd be shocked if we didn't have a top 5-10 system permanently going forward under this regime as well.

need to get Thor out of Vegas. It's not good for anyone.

You know Law loves Conforto, Domo is hitting .300 in A ball (no power yet, but he's just 19), and Herrera looks great, to name a few newer names.

Cubs were no surprise (though a few years ago they were not as well-regarded), the Mets also seem to be really well-regarded; though their position prospects could stand some beefing up their pitchers are about as good as it gets.

I'll see if I can see some tweets about it.

I don't have Insider access and only saw this from Rubin's tweet.

My guess is the Red Sox are in the top 5 with the Cubs and Mets.

though not sure this counts any of the INTL free agents they loaded up on this off-season. I'd say probably not.

Quote:

NY Yankee News ‏@Yankees_News_NY Jan 28 [SweetSpot: Its About The Money] - Keith Law Puts Yanks Farm System 20th Overall.. http://q.gs/5UDwi #Yankees #MLB

or at least it seems to be. Thanks though.

for Flexen, that sucks. Law didn't mention Herrera in his Mets blurb, I found that to be a bit weird given the fact he recently said his upside was a "good" starting MLB 2b,

you're right.

believe it was only a top 5 list and not all 30 teams ranked

mentions Thor, Nimmo, Plawecki, Rosario, Conforto in a positive light, Cecchini seemingly in a negative one.

I'm guessing low 20's.

is so fucking stupid...

this is just top 5 systems as of mid-season, not a ranking of all 30. He absolutely RAVES about the Cubs system with a blurb 4 times longer than the other 4 teams.

nothing new or special. Mets being up there is a bit of surprise but the top 3 are no doubters.

for the most part, prolly why he didnt mention herrara. He didnt even mention Smith and he seems very high on Smith.

blurb who he has ranked 5th

Quote:

There's a gap between the top four systems and the rest of the pack

Pretty sweet to see the mets up in the top 4 with a "gap" before you even get to #5

yeah but he mentions Cecchini in a "negative" way. Seems like that little mention would have been better served mentioning Herrera (again because he very recently called his upside a "good" starting 2b, hate to put words in his mouth but I'm assuming that means roughly Murphy caliber).

can touch the Cubs (I suspect they are going to make a deal for a major player/players within the next 6+ months). David Price has been rumored, Stanton obviously possible too.

saw something positive about Herrara instead of that Gavin comment, but i think he was just tying it into his Rosaria comment.

asked him on twitter what "good" starting 2b upside equates to in his eyes.

you?

yet but he usually does respond. He doesn't like "comparing" players so his answer may not be all that telling. I asked if "good" means league average? Better than average? In MY mind, Daniel Murphy would be a "good" starting MLB 2b, not sure what Law views good as though.

Robbie Cano/Dustin Pedroia is beyond good? LOL.

Oh well.

He's hitting .350 in AA with a .940 OPS (with an admittedly very small sample).

Seems like he plays good D too (but I really just assume that).

Cano and Pedroia are potential HOF 2b so I think that would be a "beyond good" upside lol

I think Pedroia has peaked unless you just want stellar defense. I don't think he has HoF potential any longer. Not sure if it's injuries or early aging or what but I think he will be a poor offensive performer going forward. Just IMO

That Thor is pitching well this year in AAA?

point was more that Pedroia and Cano will likely have the HOF discussed when they retire which makes them better than "good" MLB 2b. He may or may not be in decline but he was worth 5.5 WAR just last season, Dave Cameron still has him top 40 players in terms of trade value in all of baseball and only 17 2b in baseball have been more valuable than Dustin Pedroia since 1960 and barring a shocking decline/injury he will retire top 11 2b since 1960. Probably not a HOF but obviously better than "good".

is pitching pretty well all things considered 4.10 FIP, 9.25 K vs. 2.76 BB, .383 BABIP has killed him. Hasn't been great by any stretch but much better than the ERA would suggest.

If Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker aren't in the Hall, which they aren't, then that sonofabitch had better buy a ticket if he wants to go to Cooperstown.

In comment 11776417 Dunedin81 said:

Quote:

Cubs were no surprise (though a few years ago they were not as well-regarded), the Mets also seem to be really well-regarded; though their position prospects could stand some beefing up their pitchers are about as good as it gets.

Dunedin, this was the narrative regarding the Mets a couple years but I'd argue it's almost the opposite at this point. Sure Syndergaard, Matz, and Montero are all in the top 15 or so prospects but the rest are all position players and we just spent ANOTHER draft going heavily on position players early. Law has Conforto, Nimmo, Smith, and Plawecki ALL in the top 50. He likely has Herrera in the top 100.

a couple years ago.

my point isn't that Dustin Pedroia belongs in the HOF. My point is "good 2b" from Law 99.9% doesn't refer to Pedroia/Robinson Cano types c'mon. If that's the case then who is better than "good"? One day 10-15 years from now there WILL be a "Is Pedroia a HOFer?" "Is Cano a HOFer?" discussion. Can't say that about most players.

.300/.367/.446 career for Pedroia, that's pretty special stuff when you include his above average defense. How many 2b of the last 20 years are better than Pedroia? He won't likely get near 3,000 hits and doesn't do anything "great" so he's not a HOFer (likely not) but he's been more than "good".

I'm not looking at his era. That doesn't concern me when he's working on certain things and his peripherals are better than the raw numbers. But to say he is pitching "well" is rather odd. Saying he is learning. Fighting injuries. Battling through adversity for the first time. All understood.

I think Law overstated his case because of how short each blurb is. He's still missing bats, he's been BABIP'ed to death, has he dominated? no. Has he pitched really well? no. But he's held his own, pitched reasonably well and remember he'll be 22 years old for 95% of the 2015 season. Harvey didn't even debut till 23, same with Wheeler (and I'd argue only recently has Wheeler looked like a consistently solid/good pitcher in what is now his age 24 season).

"excellent" regarding Thor which is a bit much but Im not really worried about it. I mean he is still unanimously regarded as one of the top right-handed prospects in the game. I kind of like that he's hitting some adversity in Vegas. If he masters his craft there he'll be that much more prepared when he hits the big stage. He's still very young.

agreed. The actual quote is a bit silly (by any standards he hasn't been "excellent", even HE has admitted as much) but he's been fine and there are encouraging numbers there as well.

is more of a thrower than a pitcher at this point. He has been able to overpower hitters up to this year with his FB. He is relying in his FB in hitter's counts and is getting hit.he has a "drop dead" CB and a developing Change. He is learning not to be predictable and how to set hitter's up. In other words the 21 year old is learning how to become a pitcher. On a scale of 1-10 with 1 being bust to 10 being an ace, I give him a 9

He even seems to have a big blow up inning followed by 4/5 innings of good ball(not always) so I think thats encouraging too. He seems to have pitched well in spurts at least.

we lose track of how long it generally takes good pitchers to be good. Clayton Kershaw is a freak, Felix Hernandez is a freak... REALLY good, even GREAT pitchers generally aren't that at 21 years old. Jon Lester debuted at 22 with a 1.65 whip over 15 starts. If we are sitting here in 2016 and he's still struggling then I'll worry.

Shecky, I agree the actual quote is hyperbolic.

has gone through something similar but Im not too particularly alarmed about it. Montero seemed to undue everything that got him to the majors and his pinpoint control kind of fell out the window. Growing pains. I don't expect him to stay lost. He'll regain what made him successful in the first place. These guys weren't going to be ready made aces day one although deGrom seems to be flying in the face of that. Absolutely thrilled with the state of our system.

suggest he'll be fine, his hr/9 is actually down from last season although his bb/9 is slightly up and his k/9 is down.

to be in each others head a bit today. lol

needed a break from the Mets. Went on vacation and cleared my head lol

for Thor is a relief ace or a closer down the road. Obviously that would be disappointing but that still value.

Hitting on just two of thor, degrom, or montero would be huge.

dan, ppl started to wonder where you were for a while. lol

if Thor isn't at least a very good backend starter. More likely a number 2/3. He's years and years of failure away from being converted to a reliever at this point. 6'8 starters throwing 98 with a very good curve do not grow on trees. He's freaking 21.

at least in some compacity. Speaking of hitting on highly rated prospects isn't the ratio supposed to be like 50/50 or something like that? We've certainly hit on Harvey, Wheeler, and deGrom. TDA seems to be legit after the last few weeks. Mejia, Familia, and Black were all highly rated prospects. Lagares was at least a top 25 guy. Almost all of our top rated prospects are performing at high levels throughout our system save for maybe Cechinni. I guess Puello is another I guess but even he seems to be coming out of it lately. How many of our top prospects have bust out? Any?

It's been a year and I still can't get over it. Herrera is a solid defensive 2b who can't hit for average with some pop and will steal some bases. Black has proven himself in the pen having been more than solid for us.

If there is one thing Alderson followed through with - it was the changes to the minor league development. And credit to Collins early on with that as well. There are some great teachers and mentors throughout the system. You don't need every player to reach their ceiling, but raising their floor to a capable role player is important.

In comment 11776918 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

we lose track of how long it generally takes good pitchers to be good. Clayton Kershaw is a freak, Felix Hernandez is a freak... REALLY good, even GREAT pitchers generally aren't that at 21 years old. Jon Lester debuted at 22 with a 1.65 whip over 15 starts. If we are sitting here in 2016 and he's still struggling then I'll worry.

Dan: Fair point, but anecdotally it seems like the guys who throw thru walls (like Syndergaard) tend to have a much easier time jumping levels. I do think that we're morons for having the finishing school be in Vegas, and our Single A team play in a massively pro pitcher league/park. Why not reasonably neutral conditions for training?

Herrera and Black's ceilings are still through the roof. Every one of Sandy's "big trades" have bested the one prior.

Even Wullmer Buccera is hitting over .300 in A ball and he was a throw in AFTER TDA and Thor. Its crazy.

Beltran had some great years with the Cardinals after he got traded but he was an injured mess thought to be on two bad knees when we traded him. 2 months of that for Wheeler? TDA and Syndergaard for Dickey? Its incredible. Even Blake Taylor for an Ike Davis being shown the door anyway.

Omar, Phillips, ect have all had varying degrees of success and failures but I don't ever remember this many trades going so lopsided in the Mets favor. Maybe when I was a kid in the 80s.

they don't "want" to be there. They had nowhere else to go. They are exploring other options as we speak.

but I tend to look for the positives. I think it would be a lot worst to have an extreme pitchers park in AAA. These kids egos are a bit more fragile, and I tend to think the hitting environment gives our players confidence. We've already seen a number of players go down who were struggling only to gain themselves and get back on track (Ike, TDA, Flores, ect).

Pitching wise I feel like players need to work on pitch selection and learning what to throw so its even that more important in a place like Vegas. You won't be able to get away with just blowing people away there. I'd hate to see a guy like Montero think he's an ace because he's pitching in a pitcher's park then get called up and play in a place like Yankee stadium. He'll likely get rocked.

I know there's a lot of negatives but I tend to look at it that way.

just announced that Plawlecki has mild vertigo.

hope he gets over it.

I have it.. certain things trigger it.. but it's not the end of the world and I just deal with it.

means he got in a shovel fight, got beaten in the head 17 times, doesn't know his name or where he is and will likely never play again.

but there is not really a single blue chipper in the system. Syndergaard looked poised to gain that distinction but he has been bad at Vegas--and is getting worse rather than better as the season progresses.

Its a good U2 song though.

hitting a robust .462 So what if it is 12 at bats? One can start hyping after 12 AB's in Rookie Ball. Sue me

I don't know what you are talking about. As Law even said the Mets are in a top tier by themselves with the top 4 and then there is a noticeable drop off before Pittsburgh at 5.

I don't get why people can't ever be happy. The system is in the best shape its been in almost 30 years. We just graduated TDA(blue chipper) Wheeler the year before(blue chipper) and Harvey the year before that(blue chipper) . As Dan mentioned Thor's outside peripherals have actually been pretty good. He's about as close to a blue chipper as you can get. Nimmo, Conforto, Herrera, Plawecki, Smith, Rosario, aren't considered blue chippers yet because they aren't beating down the door but they are all getting closer and this year are all getting put on the map cracking top 50's and top 100's. They aren't far away. Law had Smith as the second best 1st base prospect in the game. What more do you want?

In comment 11776449 DanMetroMan said:

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He absolutely RAVES about the Cubs system with a blurb 4 times longer than the other 4 teams.

Cubs system is ridiculous. Was top 5 BEFORE the Oakland trade. Now they have BA's top 2, 5, 7, and 33 overall midseason plus the #4 overall pick Schwarber.

Cubs are a really interesting experiment. My understanding is that they are sick of pitching prospects getting hurt, so they're throwing all their assets at hitting prospects on the assumption that they'll be able to trade hitting for pitching down the road and will have more prospects develop since hitters tend to be healthier. Really curious to see if it works out for them.

no doubt about it but I wouldn't trade their situation for ours at all. They have a few good players at the major league level but they don't have Harvey, Wheeler, TDA, Black, Familia, and Mejia at the major league level. Every once in a while they will do a 25 years old and younger feature and we'd probably blow them out of the water.

Also, our system is becoming a lot more balanced. The Cubs don't have a lot of pitching obviously.

in a NY minute

You'd be crazy to not want their system over ours. Overall situation, I don't know. I guess that's a different argument.

situation and including the players recently graduated and its laughable anyone would even think its close.

except we are all Giants fans obviously lol.
Link - ( New Window )

so Herrera is 3-4 with a triple/HR/Single and RBI. He's batting .360 in Bing

I still have never seen him play.. all hype aside, is this kid the real deal?

for PED's (which I am sure would surprise no one), how can you say he's not for real? He's hit at every level and he's 20 years old.

He's got a career .800+ OPS for a middle infielder in over 1200 minor league at bats.

the Mets and Pirates systems prior to this year but he has absolutely exploded this season and since being promoted to AA has seemingly gotten even better. I think the analysts/league/pundits/ect just haven't caught up to the production yet. I'd be shocked if he wasn't at LEAST a top 100 prospect heading into 2015, maybe even Top 50 if he finishes strong.

The Mets have 5 players in the top 50 and Herrera, Matz, and Rosario all missed it.

people are waiting to see how he recovers from his first cold streak as well but he just keeps on freaking hitting.

I'm just asking because it seems that numbers are discounted because of league or age or WAR (and stuff like that).

Law is drooling over Conforto, Nimmo, Plawecki, Smith, and others but how is Herrera not rated higher than all of them?

either, but I don't think the eastern league is a notorious hitters league and he's well below the average age for the league.

His stats would be discounted if he were 27 in the PCL, not 20 in the EL.

.

athletic, is expected to play above average defense at 2nd, has speed, has pop, is hitting everything in sight, and is 20. I don't know what everyone's missing but I have to believe they are waiting to see if the bat is for real.

organizations like BA (he wasn't on the BA Pirates top prospect list heading in to 2013), but one site got it right:

Quote:

7. Dilson Herrera, 2B 3/3/1994 H:5�10″ W:150 � Signed out of Columbia, Herrera is a small SS prospect who has already slid over to 2B because his arm isn�t going to play up at SS or 3B. But he has the range to handle 2B and his arm is more than adequate there. It�ll be his bat that will drive his prospect status in 2013. He�s a right-handed hitter with plus speed and a bit more pop than you would expect from a 150 lbs middle infielder. But the fact is that his .281 AVG and .202 IsoP are excellent numbers for an 18 year old. He has plenty of room to add weight and gain additional strength and he moves up the ladder, so more power could be in his future and he has some speed to spare. Our Instinct: Herrera is probably the Top 10 guy here that is the furthest away from the majors. He�ll need to continue to show his hit tool and mature as a hitter. If he adds additional size to his frame he could be a .280 hitter with double digit HR power and 20+ SB speed. He�ll make his full season debut in 2013 and would be on target for a debut in about 3 years. ETA: 2016

And less text, but another site did too

Quote:

9) Dilson Herrera, 2B, Grade B-: Colombian showed unusually good power for a rookie ball middle infielder.

#7 and #9 on Pirates top 10 prospect lists by those two sites heading in to last season.

I'm against trading Murphy. He's proven and there's little proven in this lineup.

IF they trade Murphy, is this kid 2 years away?

So even if Herrera is a couple years away, we do have a guy we could give a shot there

it's utterly IDIOTIC that Flores isn't playing SS everyday in the bigs.

BESIDES the fact that he would easily out-produce Tejada, they would have a better idea on what they have in Flores.

It would be nice for them to say at the end of the year "Flores had 300 ABs, we know what we have"

Unless they are looking to trade him and don't want to hurt his value??

I can't figure it out.

Maybe they want to keep Flores' trade value high but I wish they'd just give the fucking guy a shot. A real shot.. not a week and then bench him for 3 out of every 4 games.

do you think Collins has? I often wonder this. If Sandy says
"start Flores at SS" I can't see Collins ever saying "NO"

Mets have already done everything and anything to destroy his trade value around the league. If he played and struggled it wouldn't hurt his value much more than it already has been damaged.
On the other hand, letting him play SS, and he does well... His trade value skyrockets since he could play 3B and 2B already. Now add in SS potentially, and he has shown he can hit major league pitching.

Flores is going to be a star in this league. Likely not for us.

Flores is all that much different from Baez who many think won't be able to handle SS long term. I know Baez has tremendous power potential but he isn't having a great year. Flores has been much better.

Everyone is sick of hearing about Flores for six years now. Baez has only be talked about for two years.

Funny thing is, when Flores first signed if I told you he would hit 320 120 runs 50 2Bs 27 HRs and 130 RBI at 21/22 in AAA - everyone would have ecstatic.

not even including how well he's played SS defensively. It was shouted from the rafters he COULD NEVER handle the position. No way now how absolutely not. He's looked absolutely fine there. A little rusty around the bag, but his range and arm have been great and the damn kid lost 25 lbs to get himself ready for the season and this is how he gets rewarded.

keithlaw ‏
Absolutely. Mets 2b of the future. RT @Jetsfan999: @keithlaw is dilson herrera a real prospect to watch?

In comment 11777073 ZGiants98 said:

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no doubt about it but I wouldn't trade their situation for ours at all. They have a few good players at the major league level but they don't have Harvey, Wheeler, TDA, Black, Familia, and Mejia at the major league level. Every once in a while they will do a 25 years old and younger feature and we'd probably blow them out of the water. Also, our system is becoming a lot more balanced. The Cubs don't have a lot of pitching obviously.

We can't forget deGrom.

They're like the redheaded stepchildren of hitters. Thinking is that if you cant stick at SS in Rookie or A, you're not legit. Sexy players are SS, C, 3B, CF, and SP. Look at the first round of the draft every year.

First base prospects, too. The general attitude is that, if you lack the athleticism to play the premier positions in high school or college, you already have one strike against you.