is pretty new to pitching and those pitching values are a testament to how well he's doing without great "stuff". He'll probably be not this good, but young mid rotation guy is very valuable.
deGrom to be an ace, we faced something similar last year when Jeremy Hefner had the "best 6 week stretch of any pitcher in baseball" and immediately fans went overboard.
I don't know what deGrom will become, none of us do, ace is unlikely, and I wouldn't call him one.
But....If Clayton Kershaw was next to these starts people wouldn't blink (and deGrom isn't alone, many players have similar hot stretches and don't become aces):
Degrom has only been pitching a couple years as be was a position player covert and then had TJ. So he has only really been pitching since 2012 which is why his age is really not a viable criticism. I think the scouting reports essentially mirrored your chart above - that he has a plus fastball, average to above average change up and was still refining his off speed offerings. My scouts said that the pitches had potential to be above average but were inconsistent.
RE: it also helps when three of his last 4 starts have been against
Atlanta and Seattle, neither of whom can score runs to save their lives.
The Mariners aren't an offensive powerhouse, but they've outscored the Yankees this year and are 15 runs short of the league average. If they "can't score runs to save their lives" than neither can 1/3 of the league.
The Mets don't need deGrom to be a big time stud or top of the rotation guy. They have that as long as Harvey comes back the same (which I guess isn't a given, but..) and Wheeler is starting to really round into form and become a guy whom I think will be a legit #2 type.
There's still Syndergaard who has very big upside, there's Gee and Niese who are very solid mid-rotation guys, there's Montero... I think we'll be fine in the way of pitching. We're not desperate for deGrom to be a superstar. We just need him to be good and a guy you can pencil in the rotation for a while... which I think he should be.
He was pitching as a pro at age 19, and had 1000 pro and 400 MLB innings prior to last season. deGrom has <300 pro innings before this season and is just on a different developmental curve.
Im also not an expert on Nova, but it looks like he threw 3 pitches last year -- 2 seam, 4 seam, and curve. deGrom is throwing both fastballs and the curve, slider and change. Last 3 = half his pitches even though he consistently throws 94. If you follow him at all, you'll see that these pitches are still being developed.
for 65 for Melky would be insanity. He's been worth 1.7 WAR this year, a league average starting player is worth roughly 2 WAR. His defense has been WELL below average the last 2 seasons.
Fatcessa claims Colon would be in SF right now but the Mets refuse to eat a single penny. If they stick too that then best case is Colon for a non-prospect.
goal should be both. Saving an "extra" 2-3-4 million is short-sighted however. Not getting a significant FA with that money and even a good relief prospect is worth significantly more in the long run. Guillermo Mota (a mediocre MLB reliever) was worth 13 million for his career
Which is the fans perception. And it's ironic. The team is concerned trading Colon sends a bad message to fans. And the ironic part is news of them refusing to pay any of Colons salary is sending the same old message to the fans - the Wilpons value money over winning.
Blow up the farm and acquire Stanton. And either Tulo or Call the Dbacks for our new 1b. Even if it takes our top ten prospects.
Two star players added. Fan interest through the roof. Lineup is night and day. We are the talk of baseball.
I dump Colon. Save $11mm
Trade Murphy. Save $10-$12mm.
Target for Murphy is Dickerson. If LF is acquired, I trade Grandy to save another $15mm. Money saved is simar to what Stanton extended and Tulo would cost. Payroll is below $100mm and a 2015 contender. Us fans would treats the 25th ranked farm for a few years.
As a fan, I dont believe the Mets are in any money crunch at all. As a franchise including commitments to pay for Citi and their ownership of the majority of SNY, Im reasonably sure Mets could easily justify being a top 7-10 payroll team in 2015, and top 5 thereafter (as fans return). So I would eat Colon salary if I was getting back a better return, though as I said I'd wait until the offseason when 20 teams "need" an innings eater. But I suspect the Coupons view cash as more valuable than a decent prospect return.
Think it through the way the front office does for a moment.
Pennant race - the difference between making the playoffs and not is worth several millions of dollars to a team, more than paying Colons salary. Alderson knows every front office thinks this way. No guarantee Colon clinches a playoff spot, so discount that and Colon is probably worth a couple million due to increasing a teams playoff odds.
Second. How much is Colon worth as a player. Pacing 2.2 WAR this year. And has exceeded that several years in a row. So say a year and a half of Colon a team will net just 2 WAR from Colon, conservatively. So a team will be paying $15mm for about $13mm in value. On a very short term contract.
So just based on the above, any team acquiring Colon can reasonably expect to break even. Financially.
If a team believes Colon pitches exactly as he has this year the next year and a half, they will get 3+ WAR from him.
If Colon is the difference of a playoff series this year and next for a team - he's worth another $5-$10mm in value for a team.
Depending on the team acquiring Colon - He is worth a 100-150th ranked prospect. Is it worth picking up his entire salary to bump that up to a 75-100 prospect?
have to do anything other than what he wants to do. Enough teams are showing interest that he really shouldn't have to eat anything. Colon has a very reasonable contract. The Mets themselves could also benefit from his services for the rest of the year, so why not get anything other than what you want? No reason to force a trade when you could still flip him in the offseason for a prospect. Or are we so desperate for a prospect now to have in July rather than the offseason? Who cares?
Baseball America did a look back at their Top 100's and found that as far as WAR the gap between 5 and 15 is as large as 40 and 100 so for the difference you are talking about it is unlikely to be worth picking up the tab. Now if we are talking about Kyle Crick versus a lesser but still decent prospect and say, Matt Duffy it is one thing (using the Giants as an example), but if we are saying Kyle Crick versus Edwin Escobar it is not worth eating money
feels like taking his contract and throwing us a decent prospect now GREAT! If some team doesn't feel like taking on his contract and throwing us a decent prospect GREAT!
But if 4 teams are interested and one has a much better offer but wants cash back, we should hope they agree to send the cash.
I guess it depends on what you're referring to. If its some stud like Wheeler sure absolutely but Im not expecting anything close to that level of a prospect back whether we eat anything or not.
If there are different offers but one has better prospects but wants some money back in return, I would give up the cash and take the better prospects.
The SF rumor is just that, a rumor. The money might not be the reason the deal is not done, I'm guessing Sandy might still be looking for better offers.
If there are different offers but one has better prospects but wants some money back in return, I would give up the cash and take the better prospects.
The SF rumor is just that, a rumor. The money might not be the reason the deal is not done, I'm guessing Sandy might still be looking for better offers.
Really depends on the difference in the prospects. If we are getting marginally better (say C+ versus C) then I would want the flexibility of just dumping the salary and dealing with only getting C prospects back. If you are saying we are getting B/B+ guy versus C prospects then you eat some cash
I get what you're saying but it really depends on what level of prospects you are referring to. If you are referring to some elite level prospect sure, Sandy should eat some money but I don't think any of us are expect anything close to that for Colon right now and my point is Sandy should be in no rush to trade him. Colon can help us down the stretch this year and we can just as easily trade him in the offseason where Colon's contract will look even MORE valuable to other teams.
Mets are full of organizational talent. We don't need a marginal prospect added to our system. We do need to did ourselves of the $11mm next year.
Team wants money thrown in. We don't want a middling prospect. Compromise will be we offer a marginal 40 man roster player (ex Robles, Thirnton or similar) in lieu of cash to get a better prospect.
Colon is a good pitcher. If his contract is too much for teams to take on right now(doubtful) fuck em. Keep Colon and trade him on the offseason. I think Sandy can bring in another Herrera type piece a year or two away and not pay a dime. Guess we'll see.
Look at it another way. If you tuned in and didn't know Colon had a perfect game, wouldn't you like to know it? It certainly would keep you tuned in until it ended. Sure, I know, you can see it for yourself when they put up the runs, hits and errors at the end of the inning.....but I do believe it is the job of the announcer to let you in on the secret. Jinxes are for the dugout not for radio and tv.
I don't believe in jinxes either but for decades many an announcer could let the audience know without coming out and saying it. They actually seemed to have fun with giving hints without ever saying it. I kind of enjoyed that and would prefer they went back to that. Not because I believe in the jinx but it was all part of the affair and fun of watching a no hitter.
I don't know what deGrom will become, none of us do, ace is unlikely, and I wouldn't call him one.
But....If Clayton Kershaw was next to these starts people wouldn't blink (and deGrom isn't alone, many players have similar hot stretches and don't become aces):
7/22 7IP 5H 1ER 1BB 7K
7/13 7IP 5H 1ER 2BB 8K
7/8 7IP 7H 0ER 0BB 11K
7/2 5IP 6H 3ER 2BB 8K
6/27 6.2IP 5H 2ER 3BB 4K
6/21 7IP 5H 0ER 3BB 7K
5 out of 6 quality starts, 4 of 6 dominant.
probably just a hot stretch for a rookie the league hasn't really seen yet.
The Mariners aren't an offensive powerhouse, but they've outscored the Yankees this year and are 15 runs short of the league average. If they "can't score runs to save their lives" than neither can 1/3 of the league.
The Mariners have two guys that can really hit (Cano and Seager). The rest of their current lineup is utter garbage.
Could he be legit? Sure. Are there plenty of legitimate reasons to be skeptical of that? Yes.
There's still Syndergaard who has very big upside, there's Gee and Niese who are very solid mid-rotation guys, there's Montero... I think we'll be fine in the way of pitching. We're not desperate for deGrom to be a superstar. We just need him to be good and a guy you can pencil in the rotation for a while... which I think he should be.
Im also not an expert on Nova, but it looks like he threw 3 pitches last year -- 2 seam, 4 seam, and curve. deGrom is throwing both fastballs and the curve, slider and change. Last 3 = half his pitches even though he consistently throws 94. If you follow him at all, you'll see that these pitches are still being developed.
Fatcessa claims Colon would be in SF right now but the Mets refuse to eat a single penny. If they stick too that then best case is Colon for a non-prospect.
Two star players added. Fan interest through the roof. Lineup is night and day. We are the talk of baseball.
I dump Colon. Save $11mm
Trade Murphy. Save $10-$12mm.
Target for Murphy is Dickerson. If LF is acquired, I trade Grandy to save another $15mm. Money saved is simar to what Stanton extended and Tulo would cost. Payroll is below $100mm and a 2015 contender. Us fans would treats the 25th ranked farm for a few years.
best combination of the 2
Keep on dealing big boy (talking about colon now)
Pennant race - the difference between making the playoffs and not is worth several millions of dollars to a team, more than paying Colons salary. Alderson knows every front office thinks this way. No guarantee Colon clinches a playoff spot, so discount that and Colon is probably worth a couple million due to increasing a teams playoff odds.
Second. How much is Colon worth as a player. Pacing 2.2 WAR this year. And has exceeded that several years in a row. So say a year and a half of Colon a team will net just 2 WAR from Colon, conservatively. So a team will be paying $15mm for about $13mm in value. On a very short term contract.
So just based on the above, any team acquiring Colon can reasonably expect to break even. Financially.
If a team believes Colon pitches exactly as he has this year the next year and a half, they will get 3+ WAR from him.
If Colon is the difference of a playoff series this year and next for a team - he's worth another $5-$10mm in value for a team.
Depending on the team acquiring Colon - He is worth a 100-150th ranked prospect. Is it worth picking up his entire salary to bump that up to a 75-100 prospect?
I guess it depends on what you're referring to. If its some stud like Wheeler sure absolutely but Im not expecting anything close to that level of a prospect back whether we eat anything or not.
The SF rumor is just that, a rumor. The money might not be the reason the deal is not done, I'm guessing Sandy might still be looking for better offers.
The SF rumor is just that, a rumor. The money might not be the reason the deal is not done, I'm guessing Sandy might still be looking for better offers.
Really depends on the difference in the prospects. If we are getting marginally better (say C+ versus C) then I would want the flexibility of just dumping the salary and dealing with only getting C prospects back. If you are saying we are getting B/B+ guy versus C prospects then you eat some cash
Exactly.
Team wants money thrown in. We don't want a middling prospect. Compromise will be we offer a marginal 40 man roster player (ex Robles, Thirnton or similar) in lieu of cash to get a better prospect.
did he ruin it?