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Strahan and his place among HOF DEs

Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 7/24/2014 9:44 am
I was watching something the other day where it noted that Strahan and Claude Humphrey are the 19th and 20th DEs selected to the Hall of Fame. It's really 17th and 18th by my count, the 19-20 number includes Dan Hampton and someone else who I viewed primarily as DTs.

Anyway, it sparked my interest to see the entire DE list and where our beloved Strahan would fit if the HOF did a "Tiered/Pyramid" system to denote the elite players from the excellent players, etc. Here's my crack at it - please note that I didn't go crazy into statistical analysis, but more of a gut feeling based on All-Pros, NFL Anniversary/Decade Teams, etc. I put the top 10 guys in Tiers 1 and 2, and the rest in 3.

As a homer, I put Strahan in the elite class because of his production and run defense at the LE, but you can make a decent case for most in Tier 2 to move up (particularly Robustelli). The last spot in Tier 2 was also difficult, and I ended up putting Dent there because of his Super Bowl MVP.

Tier 1 (Elite)
Reggie White (DT-DE) 1985-1998, 2000
David (Deacon) Jones (DE) 1961-1974
Bruce Smith 1985-2003
Gino Marchetti (DE) 1952-1964, 1966
Michael Strahan 1993-2007

Tier 2
Andy Robustelli (DE) 1951-1964
Carl Eller (DE) 1964-1979
Willie Davis (DE) 1958-1969
Jack Youngblood (DE) 1971-1984
Richard Dent 1983-1997

Tier 3
Howie Long (DE) 1981-1993
Doug Atkins (DE) 1953-1969
Fred Dean (DE) 1975-1985
Len Ford (DE) 1948-1958
Claude Humphrey 1968-1981
Lee Roy Selmon (DE) 1976-1984
Chris Doleman (DE, LB) 1985-1999
Elvin Bethea (DE) 1968-1983

How wou would you class them?
Eller and Willie Davis belong in tier 1  
Big Blue '56 : 7/24/2014 9:59 am : link
without question imv
Of the guys that I've seen...  
rptl530 : 7/24/2014 10:03 am : link
Reggie White belongs in a tier by himself.

Friggin' animal.
Doug Atkins was a monster,  
truebluelarry : 7/24/2014 10:08 am : link
he's definitely a Tier 1 guy. He was still productive in his late 30's after going to New Orleans in the 1967 expansion draft.

Most of those guys are 4-3 DEs, which are quite different than 3-4 DEs. I don't think anyone there is a pure 3-4 DE. Bruce Smith spent part of his career in the 3-4, and I think Fred Dean and Elvin Bethea did as well (but I'm not 100% positive.)

The expectations for a DE in the 3-4 and 4-3 systems are not the same and probably should be categorized differently. They have to be much larger than 4-3 DEs as they receive more punishment and double teams from the opposing OL.

From a strictly Giants perspective, Leonard Marshall spent all of his career in the 3-4. His responsibility was to create opportunities for Lawrence Taylor at the ROLB position, yet he was still very productive as a pass rusher and was stout against the run. I'd think he probably rates very well against his contemporaries at the same 3-4 position.

Not to be rude  
djstat : 7/24/2014 10:09 am : link
But who cares. They are in the HOF and played in different era's, schemes and rules. Reggie White may be the best ever. I cannot say Howie Long is Teir 3. I think once they are HOF that is where I'd stop ranking them, except to say one stands out above all else, to me that is White, just as LT is the greatest LB of all time.
Tier 1 is Reggie and Deacon...  
Chris in Philly : 7/24/2014 10:11 am : link
Everyone else is Tier 2.
Yeah, I think it was pretty clear that Reggie White  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 7/24/2014 10:17 am : link
was in a class by himself. And Carl Eller was really, really good and could've been #6 in the Elite group.

A hypothetial exercise, but also can offer more about some of the lesser-known guys that some of us didn't get to see play.
If you want to create tiers,  
Doomster : 7/24/2014 10:33 am : link
you have to create tiers within eras.....

How do you compare someone who played in the 50's-60's to someone who played almost 40 years later? The games they played were vastly different.....t
I think Jason Taylor  
chrispisano66 : 7/24/2014 11:42 am : link
belongs in tier 3.
I feel like ranking hall of famers is completely unnecessary.  
Ten Ton Hammer : 7/24/2014 11:55 am : link
There's nothing above the Hall of Fame. There are no very good HOFers vs. Elite HOFers.

There are only hall of famers.
What I always liked about Strahan was that he played  
MikeN in Ottawa : 7/24/2014 2:04 pm : link
the run as well as being a great pass rusher. That is why I never understood the argument from that idiot Sapp that Simeon Rice was better.

Rice was never the run defender that Strahan was. But I agree with Ten Ton...hard to separate these guys into Tiers...they were all excellent. I guess the only difference might be that some won SBs and some didn't like Eller. BTW, Howie Long was not a DE as far as I can remember. He played DT.
Top Tier,  
oldog : 7/24/2014 2:22 pm : link
Robustelli and Strahan. The rest are just hall of famers.
Tier one is  
RasputinPrime : 7/24/2014 2:53 pm : link
White and Jones.

Tier two is everyone else.
Crazy company to keep  
WideRight : 7/24/2014 6:49 pm : link
Only thing for sure was that Strahan is not in Tier 1.

Reggie White epitomizes Tier 1. Guys who came close: Smith, Dent, Jones, Selmon
RE: Crazy company to keep  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 7/24/2014 9:42 pm : link
In comment 11780612 WideRight said:
Quote:
Only thing for sure was that Strahan is not in Tier 1.

Reggie White epitomizes Tier 1. Guys who came close: Smith, Dent, Jones, Selmon


You think Dent and Selmon are better than Strahan? That's an honest discussion I'd like to have. Strahan never had a Dan Hampton next to him. Hammer played RDT.
RE: Tier one is  
Chris in Philly : 7/24/2014 9:47 pm : link
In comment 11780229 RasputinPrime said:
Quote:
White and Jones.

Tier two is everyone else.


Hey!
I think 1980 is a good cut-off date  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 7/24/2014 10:02 pm : link
when it comes to cross-era comparisons. From 1970-78, the average NFL team passed for less than 165 YPG every single season. In 1979 that total jumped to 180 pass YPG, it jumped up to 196 pass YPG in 1980, and it's basically stayed above 200 pass YPG since 1980. The transition from "run first, run second league" to "balanced attack league" was pretty quick.

Per Game
1977: 25.0 Pass Attempts -- 37.4 Rush Attempts (59.9% rush)
1982: 31.5 Pass Attempts -- 30.8 Rush Attempts (49.4% rush)
2013: 35.4 Pass Attempts -- 27.1 Rush Attempts (43.4% rush)

In a 5 year span from '77-'82, the offensive tendencies of the league changed from rushing 60% of the time to rushing about 50% of the time. For all the talk about how the NFL is becoming more and more of a passing league, the pass/run tendencies of the league have shifted less over the past 31 years than it did from '77 to '82.

1982 was the first season in NFL history where there were more pass attempts than rush attempts. It switched back over to 0.3 more runs than passes per game in 1983. But since 1984, there have always been more pass attempts than rush attempts. Sacks also became an official stat in 1982.

I just think it's tough to compare pass rushers from before ~1980 and after '80 since that's about when the passing revolution really started. So with all due respect to legends like Deacon Jones, I think it's just about impossible to make cross-era comparisons in football when it comes to players. In the MLB, stats tell you so much more. And in the NBA, individual players make much more of an impact so it's just easier to try and figure out cross-era comparisons.

So I feel like it makes more sense to compare Strahan to "modern" post-1980 Defensive Ends/Pass Rushers. *Again, Sacks only became official in 1982*

Strahan:
141.5 Sacks
4 All-Pros
*121 weighted Approximate Value score
#99 rank on NFL Network's 100 Greatest

*Pro-Football Reference's rough estimate of how productive a career was. Takes into account team performance, not just individual stats. It's a very rough advanced metric and I'm not saying to take it as Gospel. But I feel like it's a step above "Sacks" when it comes to measuring these guys and it does pass the eye test for the most part. It still values longevity a little too much and there's no way any "metric" can truly rate football players without including scouting notes. So take it with a grain of salt. But this is another dimension to compare these players with and it's clearly not a "worthless" metric even if it isn't perfect.

So this comparison takes into account career Sacks, All-Pro's, AV score, and rank on the NFL's Top All-Time Top 100 list as voted by a decorated panel. So this includes basic stats, advanced metrics, and NFL reputation among coaches/execs/scouts/media through All-Pro teams and the NFL Top 100 list. So we're coming at this from different angles, not just Sack numbers.



Compared to Strahan since '80
Pass Rushers w/ more sacks: Bruce Smith (200), Reggie White (198), Kevin Greene (160), Chris Doleman (150.5)
So Reggie and Bruce. Kevin Greene was a pass rushing OLB not a DE. Doleman was more of a true DE type.

Pass Rushers w/ more All-Pros: Bruce Smith (8), Reggie White (8), LT (8), Randle (6)
Reggie, Bruce, and LT. John Randle also with more All-Pro's, but he was an interior pass rushing DT not a DE

Pass Rushers w/ higher weighted AV score: Reggie White (157), Bruce Smith (147), Lawrence Taylor (137)
Reggie, Bruce, and LT again. I know Giants fans are appalled that LT is ranked below the other 2, but AV takes into account longevity which is an area LT just loses too much ground to the other 2. By this same metric, LT destroys Bruce Smith when we're talking about peak performance and is slightly ahead of Reggie... about what most Giants fans believe. LT's peak/prime is unquestioned, just the longevity hurts him here. Strahan coming out ahead of everybody else is impressive.

Pass Rushers who ranked higher on NFLN's Top 100: LT (#3), Reggie (#7), Bruce (#31)
The only 3 pass rushers since 1980 to rank ahead of Strahan, who ranked #99. Pretty crazy how there's such a gap among pass rushers from #3 to #4 on the list.

So in this unbiased comparison, the only 3 pass rushers who consistently grade out ahead of Strahan are Reggie, Bruce, and LT. Greene and Doleman had a few more sacks and Randle was an amazing DT, but on the whole those guys didn't dominate the game the way Strahan did.

LT and Reggie are considered two of the GOATs. Both guys were clearly better than Strahan. Bruce Smith isn't quite on the level of those two, but he belongs ahead of Strahan even though I know some Giants fans might argue. Smith had 200 sacks as a 3-4 DE, a 3-4 DE! That's just absurd. LT and Reggie were both CLEARLY better than Strahan when comparing peak play. Bruce Smith's Peak vs. Strahan's Peak is a closer call, you could legitimately argue for Strahan. But Smith's consistency and longevity simply give him the edge.

The Mount Rushmore of Pass Rushers since 1980 would only include 3 people. LT, Reggie, and Bruce. As great as Strahan is, he doesn't belong as the 4th "head" next to those other 3 players.

But almost any other way you look at it, Strahan is clearly near the very top of the list when we're looking past the Top 3. Based on this post, I believe that Strahan has a great argument for the #4 pass rusher spot since 1980.

- Was he a compiler or did he dominate? Sack Record, incredibly dominant season even if Favre dove and had other dominant years
- Was he only worried about sack totals? Dominant Run Defender, 2-way player unlike Simeon Rice
- Was he a winner? SUPER BOWL CHAMPION

It's a joke that he wasn't 1st ballot. I don't know how he compared to players from the past, but he is absolutely among the greatest pass rushers of the past 35 years and belongs at the very top of Tier 2 after the LT/Reggie/Bruce tier.

Suck on that Warren.
Great breakdown Osi  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 7/25/2014 8:26 am : link
Smith is basically the best 3-4 DE of the modern era, even if he went 4-3 late in his career.

Seeing Derrick Brooks get in on first ballot this year really makes me think Strahan didn't get in first ballot because a) media gripes and b) the league wanted him to be trotted out at the SB in NY.
I've always been a pretty big  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 7/25/2014 10:25 am : link
Derrick Brooks fan. I think he was definitely deserving of a 1st ballot nomination. I think the gap between Brooks and Ray Lewis was a lot closer than the disproportionate media hype made it seem. Brooks was great, but he was a true OLB not a pass rusher so it's tough to compare him to Strahan. It's just unfortunate Strahan didn't get that 1st ballot nod, he was truly a legend. I think anti-NY bias played a role in the decision.
Not denigrating Brooks  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 7/25/2014 11:58 am : link
Just was comparing that he and Sapp are in first ballot and Strahan was not. Brooks and Lewis are pretty close in my estimation, and I friggin loved Brooks in college - what a beast at FSU.
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