NFT: Mets trade rumors

except Syndergaard's name was mentioned in the article. I'm sure they have something on the table and the Rockies are refusing to trade him at all.

cost a ton more than Thor. Likely TDA or Plawecki + Niese and likely more.

Michael Conforto, OF, Mets (Short-season A Brooklyn)
Conforto is a man among boys in the New York-Penn League, as his polished game and field utility make him look like a major leaguer playing a pickup game in the park against weekend softball warriors. The fact that he stands out is both good and bad; the former is great for the Mets, as they clearly drafted a player of merit, but the latter is bad for scouting, as it's hard to get an accurate picture of the player when he is facing highly erratic talent that doesn’t offer much of a challenge. I like the swing, as it's fluid and easy, and the ball jumps off the bat with some volume. I like the raw, although I’d peg the power in the solid-average range rather than a middle-of-the-lineup masher with a plus or better distinction. The defense in left field has been fine, as he shows off athleticism and an accurate arm. He isn’t a burner but he runs well enough for the position and while on base, and he carries himself like a player who not only knows the game of baseball from a fundamental level but brings those skills to the field on all fronts. But it's difficult in this particular context to see how bright his star will really shine, and based on a limited three game sample, I’d say the profile will be more solid-average than star. —Jason Parks

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Tulo is currently on the disabled list anyway with a left hip flexor strain. He flew to Philadelphia this weekend to meet with a sports hernia surgeon

You only have so many trading chips. I am not sold on using them on this guy. You have the injury issue and then you add how dramatically his numbers drop away from Colorado and I don't think he is worth the gamble of giving up too much for.

is Thor, Niese, TdA and more (what is more? Herrera? Montero)?

I wouldn't do it.

Sure you're better at SS and have a middle of the order bat, but what happens if Harvey doesn't come back strong from TJ?

basically the Mets are a worse team after that trade.

I'd look at one of the Rangers shortstops for a fraction of that offer.

not promising.

he's a 30 year old SS with leg issues who's due $20 million per year for 6 years after this!

I know we all want that kind of bat, but no you can't do this. it's the kind of contract the Yankees take on, not the Mets.

is owed 118 million through 2021

I find it funny people are reacting to Wright saying he would love him added. Wouldn't Wright likely say he would "love" Omar Infante? I mean isn't that Wright's whole MO? (not knocking Wright).

I would not trade 3 good prospects for a player who seemed to be injured every year and now going into his 30's.

said winning was his #1 priority, more important than money, yet here he is on the Mets knowing it's unlikely they win.

So, yeah, Wright would say he loved whoever they asked him about.

HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS

99 349 .323 .397 .565 .962
77 255 .274 .349 .469 .818

He is injury prone and not that productive outside Coors. He would be a perfect example of a deal gone wrong......

Thor, one of Niese/Gee and Plawecki (not TDA). I realize CO will likely say no to that, but I'm not sure that paying much more than that is in the Mets' best long term interest. If we could throw in Flores and Nimmo and also get CarGo, I'd do that too.

not advocating giving up the moon for Tulo but his splits actually suggest his salary is more than fair (the years are the issue).

Career road wRC+ of 118 would be good for 3rd amongst SS's overall

and his 354 wOBA would be good for 3rd and MOST players hit better at home (obviously Coors inflates that) but it's pretty safe to say he's either the best or 2nd best offensive SS in baseball and a great fielder. Coors makes him "greater" but he's still pretty great.

in some $ if we indeed are giving up 3 or 4 prospects?

the downside is that he's hurt right now and has missed 30% of his games during his prime 25-29 years (and another 61 at age 23). It seems like you can count on him to miss 40 games, if not more. It's actually a lot of broken bones (arm, ribs) that has been sidelining him, plus a 2012 groin surgery, but in any event he really seems injury prone. Second, is the obvious cost in prospects -- Sydergaard+ is a big haul. Not sure what a comparable trade is, since superstars are rarely traded with term left, but you often dont see teams trading their top prospect. Though see the recent CHI-OAK deal.

Third, is the problem of projectability beyond going forward. Obviously, you pay for future expected contributions and not past performance. How much longer is Tulo a SS, and if he moves off of SS where does he go with DW at 3B? How does he age as a hitter, and what is his production as a non-Rockie? Not many examples beyond Matt Holliday.

On the flipside of course is the possibility that he massively upgrades our two black hole positions for the next 5 years and, with Wright, anchors the batting order. What was a terrible 2013 lineup could, optimistically, center around a core of Tulo, Wright and Duda hitting well over .800, with Grandy giving high .700 for a few seasons, TDA in high .700s or even low .800s, Murphy in the .700s and maybe some luck at LF while Nimmo and Conforto develop for 2016-17. That's a damn good lineup to pair with a big-arm rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Niese, and Matz/Gee etc. plus an emerging 8th-9th combo of Mejia-Familia. You would expect that team to be in it for one of the playoff spots.

Pointing to his away numbers, but even those numbers are light years better than what we've had at SS in the Mets entire history.

The contract is big, but outside of Wright and Colon's (expiring next year) contracts, we really dont have any huge contracts to worry about.

actually almost certainly gets a bigger deal than he is owed if he were an impending FA, the caveat is that a team signing him wouldn't be giving up a massive talent price which obviously reduces his "value". But if Tulo is a FA this upcoming season he likely gets something closer to 8-10 years at 20+, "advanced" age and all.

For a superstar shortstop. He would be a tremendous upgrade for that lineup.

he's getting a deal comparable to Cano.

I have no idea who else in baseball that has a realistic chance of being traded would excite you. Outside of Stanton, who else is out there that giving up 4 top prospects would make a Mets fan happy?

In comment 11783859 gmen9892 said:

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The contract is big, but outside of Wright and Colon's (expiring next year) contracts, we really dont have any huge contracts to worry about.

+Grandy, +Murphy getting approx what Colon is making, +hopefully some investment in LF. But I agree with the point -- our payroll and longterm commitments are under control. If you ignore ownership siphoning money away, I'd have little doubt that we could spend in the 8-10 (TEX, WAS, TOR) of $135 million, and if we were winning I'd see no reason why we couldnt spend in the low 160s like #5 DET and #4 BOS (or 180 like #3 PHIL). Mets own the majority of SNY, and have the 3rd highest ratings in baseball after years of suck and fan revolt.

absolutely. People get squeamish over the years these guys get (and I get that 100%) but his contract is actually below market value by a significant margin (as crazy as that sounds). As I said, the huge talent you have to give up obviously off-sets much of that "savings". Gun to my head I pull the trigger on a Tulo deal IF payroll is going up to at least 115-120. If payroll is staying stagnant or only going up a bit it just doesn't work at all.

Mets realistically can't be very good while adding Tulo given their commitments/soon commitments without at least a decent payroll increase. Wright, Tulo, Granderson alone = 56 million, their current payroll is 85.

And move granderson in a separate deal if money was an issue.

Not to say his away numbers are horrible or anything but simply pointing out that his numbers will obviously be lower at Citi field. As I also mentioned in my first post the real worry is the injury issue, IMO I think it makes it too risky to give up too many big trading chips for.

The Mets are close to taking the next step and putting Tulo behind Wright makes them so much better. I'd do it if I'm the Mets, they have so many good young arms.

I wasn't trying to disagree with you. Sorry if that's the impression you got. I just was trying to give the comparison of what "only" his road numbers vs. other SS's "overall" numbers look like.

would be too much IMO. Neither has a good track record of health, and you're betting on two Rockies hitters. No reason to go all in on one trade.

As for the package, not sure how there can be a report that Mets are willing to trade Thor. Says who? Mets called up and said "take Thor -- what else you want?". That's not how trades really work. In the initial stages, at most you offer the guys you'd easily give up, and maybe suggest that the better guys could be traded when you're asked about them. I'm not sure the package will need to be at the level suggested above -- Thor, TDA, Neise. In fact, I'd be really surprised if the return for Tulo was 2 MLBers and a MLB-ready top 20 SP prospect. Typically in a big trade, the "rebuilding team" doesnt get MLB ready talent for the simple reason that the other team is in win-now mode. Trading Neise and TDA would just open a hole at C and divest our only 2014-15 LH-SP. Blech

For comparison purposes, does anyone have his career Citi field numbers? All he ever seems to do is rake everytime he comes to town.

this guy is on the wrong side of 30 and his contract is costly.

Keep our prospects.

vs other SS's road numbers. Not his road numbers vs other SS's home numbers. That's an apples to oranges comparison. 90% of MLB players perform better at home. I do agree that his home stats are somewhat inflated being in Coors, but if you split his home and road numbers in half, they are still fantastic and would make him the best SS in the game.

that would make the Mets a legit contender agian

not aimed at anyone on this thread but people tend to unfairly only take road numbers and go "look!", but MOST players hit better at home/worse on the road (some significantly so even guys who play in pitchers parks). I'm not even saying Tulo for a huge package is a no-brainer but his injury stuff concerns me WAY more than his splits. In fact, if he were a healthy player the splits would concern me exactly 0%.

I can see Flores as a throwin. I just see it coming, and it pisses me off. You just know he will become an All-Star SS with some other team who will give him a legit chance. He'll hit 280+, 15+ hrs, 75+ RBIs w/adequate defense.

He's going to be 30 in October and he's ALWAYS hurt. If he's constantly getting hurt in his 20s, how is he going to hold up when he's in his 30s?

If the Coupons sold the team and the payroll went up to $160 million I would be more likely to make the trade even considering his injury history but the Mets can't add another $20 million dollar player without significantly increasing payroll.

There are worse players making quite a bit more than Tulo. His contract is actually a bargain relative to his ability. If he were to hit the market right now he'd get a lot more than he's making.

If the cost is astronomical, I'd be wary of it.. obviously. But it all depends on that.

I feel like Tulo has some concerns.

CarGo's splits would be a bit concerning to me. Tulo's are not at all.

a reasonable trade for Tulo, but reasonable is the key.

I'd much prefer the Bluejays tank and the Mets trade Gee Flores, and Plawecki for Reyes.

or a similar deal (if it's even realistic; if not slightly better) to the Rangers for Andrus or Profar

In comment 11783922 BobA said:

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I can see Flores as a throwin. I just see it coming, and it pisses me off. You just know he will become an All-Star SS with some other team who will give him a legit chance. He'll hit 280+, 15+ hrs, 75+ RBIs w/adequate defense.

They have to play Flores the rest of the season at SS to see what they have in him. We know what we have in Tejada and it is very average at best

the "Mets curse" for a second... I'd be willing to wager a whole lot of money that Tulo (if healthy) would be an all-star playing half his game at CitiField. It's the "if healthy" that would be the MASSIVE ??.

really buries the purported news that the Mets will trade Thor for Tulo. About 1000 words into a wide ranging piece about all sorts of different trades, and after addressing Lester and Price, Passan says:

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The St. Louis Cardinals expressed significant interest in him last offseason. They continue to reach out to the Rockies, as have the New York Mets, who are prepared to offer top pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard in a deal for 29-year-old. And the response is: Not yet. We’re not ready to deal him. We want to hear it from him.

Not sure I'd take this as news reporting. If the Mets had offered Thor+ for Tulo, that would be worthy of its own article, not a buried aside in a columnist's bloviating state of the market piece.

scares me more than the prospects (and I agree the money is reasonable (or better) though I didn't think so at first)

Tulos health concerns are probably similar to Reyes's when many fans didn't want to pay him.

In comment 11783901 DanMetroMan said:

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I wasn't trying to disagree with you. Sorry if that's the impression you got. I just was trying to give the comparison of what "only" his road numbers vs. other SS's "overall" numbers look like.

No problem and if I knew he would be healthy I would be for it. The Mets just seem to have such horrible luck sometimes(think the Juan Samuel trade), that if they make this trade I can easily see it working out where he is always half injured and never the same player he once was.

I guess after years of watching big name trades or free agent signings going badly I'm just gun shy and leery of red flags like this:

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Tulo is currently on the disabled list anyway with a left hip flexor strain. He flew to Philadelphia this weekend to meet with a sports hernia surgeon

or the home away splits, its the injury history that scares me. Throw in we are rumored to be trading our only left handed started, our top pitching prospect, a good young catcher plus more.... Its a major risk. You are betting he stays healthy, and usually players who have a history of injuries do not suddenly stay healthy once they past the age of 30. It usually gets worse.

In comment 11783938 pjcas18 said:

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scares me more than the prospects (and I agree the money is reasonable (or better) though I didn't think so at first) Tulos health concerns are probably similar to Reyes's when many fans didn't want to pay him.

That's' where I'm at also, the injuries worry me. You only have so many trading chips and while right now the Mets have plenty one bad trade and they lose that advantage.

and keep costs down?

I would love to see is the Mets find a Dickerson type BEFORE the breakout. Obviously it's easier said than done but imagine how much less Dickerson would have cost before the year?

I hate the Wilpons even more. We should have simply signed Reyes.