Alderson has yet to make a trade not on his terms. No panic moves, no trades to appease the fan base that he is doing something. We still have Thor Matz Herrera Plawecki and I'm fine with it
You have to figure that the rotation is going to be very good to outstanding. Bullpen also looks pretty set right now. If Parnell comes back OK, you could say we'd have four guys who could legitimately be considered closer types.
Out in the field, right now I think I can safely say that six of the eight starting positions are going to be filled by players who are Major League average or better.
That's a pretty good base to start from. I don't think the Mets have been this solid in a long time. Plug the hole in LF with an MLB average player or better and I think the team should be in the playoff mix.
RE: Wonder of Montero/Plawecki + gets it done for CarGo.
I used the comparison earlier of huge David Price trade. One of huge top lefties in the game. It took a similar package of montero/Niese, Plawecki, and Rosario.
I think a Montero/Gee and Plawecki would definitely get CarGo, based on the above. I'd prefer to hold onto Plawecki if we are getting CarGo though. Plawecki and Thor will be the two "must include" in any Tulo/Stanton type of trade talks
Catcher: I'm happy to go with TdA at this point. He seems like a good bet.
Flores: I think we have to get him at bats down the stretch. He trade value is depressed, and I dont want to try him out next year when things matter, instead of now.
Montero: A guy I'd trade since we have so many RHPs in front of him. But I suspect his trade value isnt commensurate with his minor league success. Doesnt throw super hard, and was a late bloomer. Not the type of pitcher another GM will lust for.
As for targets, I'd be much happier committing to a long term solution at SS this offseason than LF. Still think Conforto/Nimmo can competently handle LF by 2016 at least in a platoon with a vet. Though ideally Nimmo stays in center.
I haven't seen him pitch. I read the Toby Hyde article saying that once he improves his curveball he's MLB ready. I don't know how long that typically takes.
Is he a guy they are looking for 2nd half of 2015? 2016? I know it obviously depends on trades and injuries, but current projection?
assuming they trade Colon next year, the rotation is still stacked. I don't see room for him. And is he BEHIND or AHEAD of Montero? Being a lefty, it seems like a different category.
maybe they can start him in the pen in the MLB level? not for good, just until they have a spot for him. that gives them a nasty lefty coming out of the pen.
I dont think that will excite the Rockies. Plawecki would be their best C prospect, but they already have a guy in AA who could be ready next year and would rank around #10 if he was a Mets prospect. Montero doesnt necessarily fit their style -- the LOVE fireballers because balls dont break as well in Denver.
They absolutely need a LF power bat. Period. Enough with this "we can stick anyone there, given our rotation" BS. And preferably, they need to find a SS who can leadoff, so Grandy can be moved down.
A 3-4-5-6 of Wright, Grandy, (power bat LF), Duda is pretty good.
Not to beat a dead horse, but too bad they never had a SS in the farm system who can bat leadoff.
The power bat would preferably come in RF, and Grandy moves.
For all the talk about needing a power bat, I completely agree a little speed wouldn't hurt this team. A great leadoff hitter would be a very welcome addition.
They absolutely need a LF power bat. Period. Enough with this "we can stick anyone there, given our rotation" BS. And preferably, they need to find a SS who can leadoff, so Grandy can be moved down.
A 3-4-5-6 of Wright, Grandy, (power bat LF), Duda is pretty good.
Not to beat a dead horse, but too bad they never had a SS in the farm system who can bat leadoff.
Oh, wait...
See I'd agree with you if Duda didn't just come out of thin air. No doubt we need an upgrade in LF, but how is Cuddyer, a guy who has OPSed over .800 6 times not an upgrade? You guys want Murphy, Wright, Duda, Superstar hall of famer, Granderson, TDA or your not happy??? That gives us the best lineup in the NL on top of the one of the top rotations on top of one of the top bullpens.
easiest places to upgrade are obviously LF and SS because our talent there is sucky. But (according to Baseball Reference), we're exactly average in LF production at -0.2 WAR, ahead of contenders STL (-.3), LAD (-.9), WASH (-1.1), and SF (-1.5). We're 22nd overall in SS WAR (-.8), but ahead of OAK and DET (30th overall at -1.8!).
Our worst position has been Catcher, where we are 29th overall getting -1.8 WAR. Overall, our miserable outfield with the ancient Grandy, no hit Lagares, and LF blackhole of death is the 10th most productive in basevall (1.6 WAR), better than LAD, NYY, SF, DET, WASH, and STL.
No team is better than average everywhere. Oakland is bottom 3rd in 2B and SS. LAD is substandard at RP, C, LF, and CF, while LAA is behind at SP, RP, 3B, and DH. Link - ( New Window )
You can get Stanton AND Tulo. It's a dream world, but give the Rockies and Marlins 5 of our top 10 prospects each. Marlins get 1,3,5,7,9. Rockies get 2,4,6,8,10. Insert Tulo and Stanton in the lineup. Don't need a farm with this team... Instant contender. Payroll is up 40-$45mm. Call it $130mm.
Trade Colon, down to $120mm. Recoup a B or C prospect
Trade grandy for a younger (aka less expensive LF, preferably leadoff type). Save another $15mm. Down to $105mm. Our magic number we have all been targeting.
Like I said. I think CarGo is the guy to go for. I really don't think he'll cost the moon like Stanton would (although if MIA would listen to offers for him I'd certainly be making one) and I like his upside more and he's still young. He just seems like a good fit to me. Add him, find something just a little better than Tejada, get Harvey back and I'm pretty comfortable with this team going forward.
RE: Perspective of what prospects are needed to deal
I used the comparison earlier of huge David Price trade. One of huge top lefties in the game. It took a similar package of montero/Niese, Plawecki, and Rosario.
I think a Montero/Gee and Plawecki would definitely get CarGo, based on the above. I'd prefer to hold onto Plawecki if we are getting CarGo though. Plawecki and Thor will be the two "must include" in any Tulo/Stanton type of trade talks
Remember that Tampa really liked Nick Franklin, so it's not that easy to compare what they got to what the Mets have.
Tampa could have requested Duda (we know they tried to get him in the past) and Wheeler.
A Montero/Gee & Plawecki does not get Gonzalez, MAYBE where the Mets were to eat the majority of his remaining $$$, but still. If I'm Colorado, my starting asking price for Gonzo is Wheeler, d'Arnaud and Matz/Nimmo.
Target as well and I think it's realistic. Shecky you're dreaming bro. Stanton and Tulo?? Come on man.
I'm getting the feeling that prospects are now getting overvalued, hence the trading deadline with a lot of major leaguers being moved. However this dream trade scenario would make the mets instant contenders.
Target as well and I think it's realistic. Shecky you're dreaming bro. Stanton and Tulo?? Come on man.
I'm getting the feeling that prospects are now getting overvalued, hence the trading deadline with a lot of major leaguers being moved. However this dream trade scenario would make the mets instant contenders.
Instant contenders?? Lol. It would make us the best team of all time.
We don't need to do major changes to be competitive.
As of now they are 7 games out of first place with :
-no Harvey
-a bullpen that start with Farnsworth and Valverde who cost us several games
-TDA trying struggling most of the first half of the season
-Ike/Dude mess which now has been resolved
-a down year from Wright
-a manager who costs us games!
Obviously injuries could happen next year, or Duda and TDA could regress but the team has vastly improved since April.
Meh. Hanley may make only marginally more than Colon + C Young. Everyone assumes he resigns with the Dodgers, but of course everyone assumed Cano would resign. We'll see what the Dodgers finances really are this offseason. Forbes says that the Dodgers lost $80 million last season. No idea what the projections are for this year or whether LA is hurt at all by the failure of TWC to sell the Dodgers rights to other providers (only 30% of homes in market are getting games right now). And remember -- that team was bought on a ton of borrowed money.
we need to get out of this bargain team mentality. if player A helps the team more than player B, sign player A.
Amen. We are a high revenue team. Dont let the Wilpons pretend otherwise. Frankly I think the reporters should be harassing the Sandy et al on this point every day. Though I will say that the Post doesnt pretend for a second that significant signings are out of reach.
Even if LAD don't retain Hanley, I don't trust the Mets FO to outbid other teams for his services. It has been a long time since we made that type of splash and I don't see it coming now.
Would I like to add Hanley? Absofuckinglutely. Sign Hanley, then a Cuddyer makes perfect sense as a bridge to Conforto/Nimmo and let's roll. But I just don't see it happening. I really don't.
And no matter how many times any of us say the Mets' spending is BS and that they can afford to, it's not going to change the way they operate. This should be a 130M payroll ballclub. There are no excuses. But I'd be stunned to see it jump much higher than 100 any time soon.
Target as well and I think it's realistic. Shecky you're dreaming bro. Stanton and Tulo?? Come on man.
I'm getting the feeling that prospects are now getting overvalued, hence the trading deadline with a lot of major leaguers being moved. However this dream trade scenario would make the mets instant contenders.
Instant contenders?? Lol. It would make us the best team of all time.
The problem with this scenario, other the farm being shot, is that our depth would be an issue if injuries were to hit.
Target as well and I think it's realistic. Shecky you're dreaming bro. Stanton and Tulo?? Come on man.
I know it won't happen. And it's a "dream". But is it not doable to trade five prospects from our top ten and safely say we could land anyone outside of Trout? And that's a huge overpay!! Do it twice and clear our top ten, fine by me.
Funny thing is, I created a dream scenario that is
A) realistic
B) fits exactl within the teams current financial constraints
Morse's 2013 scared me but it looks like he's back to being the guy he was prior. It wouldn't be a bad gamble. I think I'd probably go for Morse over Cuddyer.
Lets say the Mets traded organizations and staium/league with the Yankees -- so the Bombers are now in the NL East at Citi with David Wright and Thor on the way and friends, etc. They assume the fair Citi debt, but none of the other BS debt the Coupons loaded up the team/SNY with.
What would the Yankees do this offseason? First, they'd chase the top two FAs -- Scherzer and HanRam. Biggest organizational hole is SS, and HanRam fills it. Scherzer and Harvey are the co-aces of the 2015 staff. One of Wheeler, deGrom, and Thor is traded for a big OF bat or a similarly valuable AAA OF prospect. Or a 3rd current ace pitcher. And they'd be in on whatever comes out of Cuba/Japan this winter.
Mets wont do it. But lets not pretend like it isnt an option on the table. In fact, given the amount of ticket revenue they're leaving on the table, the upside from 65% ownership of SNY, and the good chance that the other NY will suck, its not at all clear that this would be a net drag on revenues. Playing around with Bloomberg's data on sources of team revenue for 2013 and recognizing that attendance is AT LEAST 50% below what it would be if we were competitive, there is probably an easy $50+ million in extra revenue available from goosing attendance from the 2.1 million (2013) to 3.1 million. And of course ticket prices would go up and SNY would churn out even more money. And no one has bought Mets gear in years, so there is a lot of pent up demand for new merchandise... http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2013-10-23/mlb-team-values.html - ( New Window )
Lets say the Mets traded organizations and staium/league with the Yankees -- so the Bombers are now in the NL East at Citi with David Wright and Thor on the way and friends, etc. They assume the fair Citi debt, but none of the other BS debt the Coupons loaded up the team/SNY with.
What would the Yankees do this offseason? First, they'd chase the top two FAs -- Scherzer and HanRam. Biggest organizational hole is SS, and HanRam fills it. Scherzer and Harvey are the co-aces of the 2015 staff. One of Wheeler, deGrom, and Thor is traded for a big OF bat or a similarly valuable AAA OF prospect. Or a 3rd current ace pitcher. And they'd be in on whatever comes out of Cuba/Japan this winter.
Mets wont do it. But lets not pretend like it isnt an option on the table. In fact, given the amount of ticket revenue they're leaving on the table, the upside from 65% ownership of SNY, and the good chance that the other NY will suck, its not at all clear that this would be a net drag on revenues. Playing around with Bloomberg's data on sources of team revenue for 2013 and recognizing that attendance is AT LEAST 50% below what it would be if we were competitive, there is probably an easy $50+ million in extra revenue available from goosing attendance from the 2.1 million (2013) to 3.1 million. And of course ticket prices would go up and SNY would churn out even more money. And no one has bought Mets gear in years, so there is a lot of pent up demand for new merchandise... http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2013-10-23/mlb-team-values.html - ( New Window )
Great post. I completely agree.
I'll just add the suggestion that you follow the approach that I take. Ignore the Wilpon/payroll stuff during the season and follow the team and prospects instead. There's plenty of time to get furious about this in the offseason. Right now, there's a lot of interesting things going on with the team. Try to focus on that and let's discuss the Wilpons in the offseason.
Us talking about the Mets spending more money isn't ever going to force them to or change the way they operate.
Sure, maybe the revenue is there to expand payroll and maybe it's more feasible than we think. But the people who own and run this team choose to do business their way at the end of the day and no matter how much we riot and scream about how they need to spend more money, it doesn't appear that is at all imminent.
So, really. We just have to hope that within the constraints they've created, they're able to field a competitive team by having young kids give us major production on cheap rookie deals and allow us to maximize value in enough spots to negate some of the payroll deficiency elsewhere.
I think with the correct moves, the Mets actually can compete with a payroll around like 100M there's really no way around the fact that it makes it more difficult to do so.
can discuss whatever they want. I just offered the suggestion because it's something I do to preserve my own sanity and help me enjoy the season more. As a Mets/Isles fan, there's infinite reasons to be frustrated with ownership.
But the people who own and run this team choose to do business their way at the end of the day and no matter how much we riot and scream about how they need to spend more money, it doesn't appear that is at all imminent.
I disagree. I seriously doubt that the Wilpons were sitting around thinking "the team really needs to plunk down $30-35 million 2014 dollars on Grandy, Young, and Colon". Rather, I think they were essentially shamed into it. They had to spend upto approx last year's payroll or there could be further fan revolt -- $100 million in tickets/concessions could easily turn to $75-80 etc, especially after so many years for promises. 2014 was held out for a while as some future Shangrila. They really dont give two shits about winning right now. They care about holding onto the team until they can reduce the debt load from crushing/ownership-threatening to manageable.
I think if everyone -- fans, WFAN, the Post etc. -- shut up about the dismal payroll compared to revenue and potential revenue, the Wilpons would ABSOLUTELY spend less. They could easily dump Colon this offseason, let Young walk, resign our RFAs, and call it an offseason. That's a .500 team anyway. They spend because of the chatter.
1. Agree 100% that if the Mets acted with the urgency they should this offseason (aka as the Yankees do every year, even when they shouldn't) Hanley Ramirez would be a Met. The Backup plan would be some combo of Morse, Scherzer, Lester - and maybe a fill in trade somewhere with the pitching excess.
2. While I do not expect the Mets to spend to the level of point #1, I do think it will be more than we fans expect. I think CarGo is 100% a top option and Starlin Castro may be up there as well. I think a Morse/Cuddyer type is far more likely in FA if they strike out in the trade market, but I could also see them making a run for 1 big name that we do not in any way expect (like Hanley), especially if that player's market drags out the way Cano's did last year.
My predictions:
The payroll goes over 100M and Gee ends up being the centerpiece of a trade along with Montero for either Castro or Gonzalez. Both players fill huge needs, have fair contracts, upside, and have been actively shopped by teams looking for pitching (with the Mets rumored). Gee going the other way saves a little $krilla, and Sandy gives up some depth to preserve the high upside young arms. Giving up 2 pitchers who will likely slot into major league rotations next season is tough to swallow, but it's necessary to get an all star level hitter in his prime.
But the people who own and run this team choose to do business their way at the end of the day and no matter how much we riot and scream about how they need to spend more money, it doesn't appear that is at all imminent.
I disagree. I seriously doubt that the Wilpons were sitting around thinking "the team really needs to plunk down $30-35 million 2014 dollars on Grandy, Young, and Colon". Rather, I think they were essentially shamed into it. They had to spend upto approx last year's payroll or there could be further fan revolt -- $100 million in tickets/concessions could easily turn to $75-80 etc, especially after so many years for promises. 2014 was held out for a while as some future Shangrila. They really dont give two shits about winning right now. They care about holding onto the team until they can reduce the debt load from crushing/ownership-threatening to manageable.
I think if everyone -- fans, WFAN, the Post etc. -- shut up about the dismal payroll compared to revenue and potential revenue, the Wilpons would ABSOLUTELY spend less. They could easily dump Colon this offseason, let Young walk, resign our RFAs, and call it an offseason. That's a .500 team anyway. They spend because of the chatter.
I think there's some truth in this but I think it comes through slightly differently. For example I believe the rumor that Sandy didn't want to go 4 years for Granderson, but Jeff Wilpon told him to do it because he wanted some positive press, and certainly didn't want months of negative press waiting while the players on the market who took 1 year deals got desperate. Practically speaking I don't think the PR changes how much they will actually spend in a given season, I think that's mostly determined by Sandy having a budget and trying to time his moves precisely within those constraints.
Deej.. this isn't a new thing or something fans have been silent about, though. People have been screaming about the Wilpons and the payroll and the ponzi scheme and ALL of that for years now. Payroll has only gone down. All of the talk about "flexibility" and "money to spend" has rung hollow thus far.
Like I've said all along. If there's money to spend, great. But color me skeptical until it's actually spent.
I disagree. I seriously doubt that the Wilpons were sitting around thinking "the team really needs to plunk down $30-35 million 2014 dollars on Grandy, Young, and Colon". Rather, I think they were essentially shamed into it. They had to spend upto approx last year's payroll or there could be further fan revolt -- $100 million in tickets/concessions could easily turn to $75-80 etc, especially after so many years for promises. 2014 was held out for a while as some future Shangrila. They really dont give two shits about winning right now. They care about holding onto the team until they can reduce the debt load from crushing/ownership-threatening to manageable.
I think if everyone -- fans, WFAN, the Post etc. -- shut up about the dismal payroll compared to revenue and potential revenue, the Wilpons would ABSOLUTELY spend less. They could easily dump Colon this offseason, let Young walk, resign our RFAs, and call it an offseason. That's a .500 team anyway. They spend because of the chatter.
I agree 100%. The Coupons signed Granderson for PR. Had they not signed anybody and went into the season with a $55 million dollar payroll the media pressure to sell the team would be gigantic.
Out in the field, right now I think I can safely say that six of the eight starting positions are going to be filled by players who are Major League average or better.
That's a pretty good base to start from. I don't think the Mets have been this solid in a long time. Plug the hole in LF with an MLB average player or better and I think the team should be in the playoff mix.
That's the exact opening offer I'd start with, and then probably be willing to add a Flores, Leathersich, or Reynolds to get it done.
If I was Colorado I'd be all over Flores - could put up really big numbers there at 2B.
It would've made sense to at least give him Wednesday's game off (day game after a night game and an off day to follow).
I think a Montero/Gee and Plawecki would definitely get CarGo, based on the above. I'd prefer to hold onto Plawecki if we are getting CarGo though. Plawecki and Thor will be the two "must include" in any Tulo/Stanton type of trade talks
Quote:
is giving him problems. He should shut it down, get it fixed, put Flores on third
It would've made sense to at least give him Wednesday's game off (day game after a night game and an off day to follow).
That would involve Collins thinking. Which is why it didn't happen. Anything obvious never seems to get done.
Flores: I think we have to get him at bats down the stretch. He trade value is depressed, and I dont want to try him out next year when things matter, instead of now.
Montero: A guy I'd trade since we have so many RHPs in front of him. But I suspect his trade value isnt commensurate with his minor league success. Doesnt throw super hard, and was a late bloomer. Not the type of pitcher another GM will lust for.
As for targets, I'd be much happier committing to a long term solution at SS this offseason than LF. Still think Conforto/Nimmo can competently handle LF by 2016 at least in a platoon with a vet. Though ideally Nimmo stays in center.
Is he a guy they are looking for 2nd half of 2015? 2016? I know it obviously depends on trades and injuries, but current projection?
assuming they trade Colon next year, the rotation is still stacked. I don't see room for him. And is he BEHIND or AHEAD of Montero? Being a lefty, it seems like a different category.
maybe they can start him in the pen in the MLB level? not for good, just until they have a spot for him. that gives them a nasty lefty coming out of the pen.
just thinking out loud here.
A 3-4-5-6 of Wright, Grandy, (power bat LF), Duda is pretty good.
Not to beat a dead horse, but too bad they never had a SS in the farm system who can bat leadoff.
Oh, wait...
For all the talk about needing a power bat, I completely agree a little speed wouldn't hurt this team. A great leadoff hitter would be a very welcome addition.
A 3-4-5-6 of Wright, Grandy, (power bat LF), Duda is pretty good.
Not to beat a dead horse, but too bad they never had a SS in the farm system who can bat leadoff.
Oh, wait...
See I'd agree with you if Duda didn't just come out of thin air. No doubt we need an upgrade in LF, but how is Cuddyer, a guy who has OPSed over .800 6 times not an upgrade? You guys want Murphy, Wright, Duda, Superstar hall of famer, Granderson, TDA or your not happy??? That gives us the best lineup in the NL on top of the one of the top rotations on top of one of the top bullpens.
Just give me better than a 36 year old Michael Cuddyer leaving Colorado.
Our worst position has been Catcher, where we are 29th overall getting -1.8 WAR. Overall, our miserable outfield with the ancient Grandy, no hit Lagares, and LF blackhole of death is the 10th most productive in basevall (1.6 WAR), better than LAD, NYY, SF, DET, WASH, and STL.
No team is better than average everywhere. Oakland is bottom 3rd in 2B and SS. LAD is substandard at RP, C, LF, and CF, while LAA is behind at SP, RP, 3B, and DH.
Link - ( New Window )
Trade Colon, down to $120mm. Recoup a B or C prospect
Trade grandy for a younger (aka less expensive LF, preferably leadoff type). Save another $15mm. Down to $105mm. Our magic number we have all been targeting.
Lineup: Leadoff LF, Murphy, Tulo, Stanton, Wright, Duda, TdA, Legares.
Rotation: Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, DeGrom
Pen: Mejia, Familia, Parnell, Black, Edgin, Torres, , Germen
He's better than what they have, and better than most UFA options.
Then you can use chips to trade for a SS. It's easier to fill an OF hole with free agency than a legit SS.
Murphy
Tulo
Wright
Duda
Morse
d'arnaud
Lagares
that's a lineup that will win with this pitching. that's a playoff team.
I think a Montero/Gee and Plawecki would definitely get CarGo, based on the above. I'd prefer to hold onto Plawecki if we are getting CarGo though. Plawecki and Thor will be the two "must include" in any Tulo/Stanton type of trade talks
Remember that Tampa really liked Nick Franklin, so it's not that easy to compare what they got to what the Mets have.
Tampa could have requested Duda (we know they tried to get him in the past) and Wheeler.
A Montero/Gee & Plawecki does not get Gonzalez, MAYBE where the Mets were to eat the majority of his remaining $$$, but still. If I'm Colorado, my starting asking price for Gonzo is Wheeler, d'Arnaud and Matz/Nimmo.
to drastically improve two positions, 1 via trade 1 via free agency, would be ideal.
I don't think signing a SS free agency would improve the team as much as trading for one.
I'm getting the feeling that prospects are now getting overvalued, hence the trading deadline with a lot of major leaguers being moved. However this dream trade scenario would make the mets instant contenders.
Dont get me wrong love the player but why change the path we have been successfull with so far.
Quote:
Target as well and I think it's realistic. Shecky you're dreaming bro. Stanton and Tulo?? Come on man.
I'm getting the feeling that prospects are now getting overvalued, hence the trading deadline with a lot of major leaguers being moved. However this dream trade scenario would make the mets instant contenders.
Instant contenders?? Lol. It would make us the best team of all time.
a) he's worth more
b) he's younger
we need to get out of this bargain team mentality. if player A helps the team more than player B, sign player A.
As of now they are 7 games out of first place with :
-no Harvey
-a bullpen that start with Farnsworth and Valverde who cost us several games
-TDA trying struggling most of the first half of the season
-Ike/Dude mess which now has been resolved
-a down year from Wright
-a manager who costs us games!
Obviously injuries could happen next year, or Duda and TDA could regress but the team has vastly improved since April.
Meh. Hanley may make only marginally more than Colon + C Young. Everyone assumes he resigns with the Dodgers, but of course everyone assumed Cano would resign. We'll see what the Dodgers finances really are this offseason. Forbes says that the Dodgers lost $80 million last season. No idea what the projections are for this year or whether LA is hurt at all by the failure of TWC to sell the Dodgers rights to other providers (only 30% of homes in market are getting games right now). And remember -- that team was bought on a ton of borrowed money.
Amen. We are a high revenue team. Dont let the Wilpons pretend otherwise. Frankly I think the reporters should be harassing the Sandy et al on this point every day. Though I will say that the Post doesnt pretend for a second that significant signings are out of reach.
Would I like to add Hanley? Absofuckinglutely. Sign Hanley, then a Cuddyer makes perfect sense as a bridge to Conforto/Nimmo and let's roll. But I just don't see it happening. I really don't.
And no matter how many times any of us say the Mets' spending is BS and that they can afford to, it's not going to change the way they operate. This should be a 130M payroll ballclub. There are no excuses. But I'd be stunned to see it jump much higher than 100 any time soon.
you are looking at huge pay increases for a lot of these players in the next 5 years.
what is the argument against Morse?
Quote:
In comment 11789842 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Target as well and I think it's realistic. Shecky you're dreaming bro. Stanton and Tulo?? Come on man.
I'm getting the feeling that prospects are now getting overvalued, hence the trading deadline with a lot of major leaguers being moved. However this dream trade scenario would make the mets instant contenders.
Instant contenders?? Lol. It would make us the best team of all time.
The problem with this scenario, other the farm being shot, is that our depth would be an issue if injuries were to hit.
I know it won't happen. And it's a "dream". But is it not doable to trade five prospects from our top ten and safely say we could land anyone outside of Trout? And that's a huge overpay!! Do it twice and clear our top ten, fine by me.
Funny thing is, I created a dream scenario that is
A) realistic
B) fits exactl within the teams current financial constraints
Dont get me wrong love the player but why change the path we have been successfull with so far.
Tulo and Cargo are both injury prone. Starting as a rookie going through last season, Cargo has played 85, 89, 145, 127, 135 and 110 games a season.
You're getting a very middle/older class of FAs with that attitude at best. It's probably what the assholes who own the team will do though.
What would the Yankees do this offseason? First, they'd chase the top two FAs -- Scherzer and HanRam. Biggest organizational hole is SS, and HanRam fills it. Scherzer and Harvey are the co-aces of the 2015 staff. One of Wheeler, deGrom, and Thor is traded for a big OF bat or a similarly valuable AAA OF prospect. Or a 3rd current ace pitcher. And they'd be in on whatever comes out of Cuba/Japan this winter.
Mets wont do it. But lets not pretend like it isnt an option on the table. In fact, given the amount of ticket revenue they're leaving on the table, the upside from 65% ownership of SNY, and the good chance that the other NY will suck, its not at all clear that this would be a net drag on revenues. Playing around with Bloomberg's data on sources of team revenue for 2013 and recognizing that attendance is AT LEAST 50% below what it would be if we were competitive, there is probably an easy $50+ million in extra revenue available from goosing attendance from the 2.1 million (2013) to 3.1 million. And of course ticket prices would go up and SNY would churn out even more money. And no one has bought Mets gear in years, so there is a lot of pent up demand for new merchandise...
http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2013-10-23/mlb-team-values.html - ( New Window )
What would the Yankees do this offseason? First, they'd chase the top two FAs -- Scherzer and HanRam. Biggest organizational hole is SS, and HanRam fills it. Scherzer and Harvey are the co-aces of the 2015 staff. One of Wheeler, deGrom, and Thor is traded for a big OF bat or a similarly valuable AAA OF prospect. Or a 3rd current ace pitcher. And they'd be in on whatever comes out of Cuba/Japan this winter.
Mets wont do it. But lets not pretend like it isnt an option on the table. In fact, given the amount of ticket revenue they're leaving on the table, the upside from 65% ownership of SNY, and the good chance that the other NY will suck, its not at all clear that this would be a net drag on revenues. Playing around with Bloomberg's data on sources of team revenue for 2013 and recognizing that attendance is AT LEAST 50% below what it would be if we were competitive, there is probably an easy $50+ million in extra revenue available from goosing attendance from the 2.1 million (2013) to 3.1 million. And of course ticket prices would go up and SNY would churn out even more money. And no one has bought Mets gear in years, so there is a lot of pent up demand for new merchandise... http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2013-10-23/mlb-team-values.html - ( New Window )
Great post. I completely agree.
I'll just add the suggestion that you follow the approach that I take. Ignore the Wilpon/payroll stuff during the season and follow the team and prospects instead. There's plenty of time to get furious about this in the offseason. Right now, there's a lot of interesting things going on with the team. Try to focus on that and let's discuss the Wilpons in the offseason.
Us talking about the Mets spending more money isn't ever going to force them to or change the way they operate.
Sure, maybe the revenue is there to expand payroll and maybe it's more feasible than we think. But the people who own and run this team choose to do business their way at the end of the day and no matter how much we riot and scream about how they need to spend more money, it doesn't appear that is at all imminent.
So, really. We just have to hope that within the constraints they've created, they're able to field a competitive team by having young kids give us major production on cheap rookie deals and allow us to maximize value in enough spots to negate some of the payroll deficiency elsewhere.
I think with the correct moves, the Mets actually can compete with a payroll around like 100M there's really no way around the fact that it makes it more difficult to do so.
I disagree. I seriously doubt that the Wilpons were sitting around thinking "the team really needs to plunk down $30-35 million 2014 dollars on Grandy, Young, and Colon". Rather, I think they were essentially shamed into it. They had to spend upto approx last year's payroll or there could be further fan revolt -- $100 million in tickets/concessions could easily turn to $75-80 etc, especially after so many years for promises. 2014 was held out for a while as some future Shangrila. They really dont give two shits about winning right now. They care about holding onto the team until they can reduce the debt load from crushing/ownership-threatening to manageable.
I think if everyone -- fans, WFAN, the Post etc. -- shut up about the dismal payroll compared to revenue and potential revenue, the Wilpons would ABSOLUTELY spend less. They could easily dump Colon this offseason, let Young walk, resign our RFAs, and call it an offseason. That's a .500 team anyway. They spend because of the chatter.
2. While I do not expect the Mets to spend to the level of point #1, I do think it will be more than we fans expect. I think CarGo is 100% a top option and Starlin Castro may be up there as well. I think a Morse/Cuddyer type is far more likely in FA if they strike out in the trade market, but I could also see them making a run for 1 big name that we do not in any way expect (like Hanley), especially if that player's market drags out the way Cano's did last year.
My predictions:
The payroll goes over 100M and Gee ends up being the centerpiece of a trade along with Montero for either Castro or Gonzalez. Both players fill huge needs, have fair contracts, upside, and have been actively shopped by teams looking for pitching (with the Mets rumored). Gee going the other way saves a little $krilla, and Sandy gives up some depth to preserve the high upside young arms. Giving up 2 pitchers who will likely slot into major league rotations next season is tough to swallow, but it's necessary to get an all star level hitter in his prime.
Quote:
But the people who own and run this team choose to do business their way at the end of the day and no matter how much we riot and scream about how they need to spend more money, it doesn't appear that is at all imminent.
I disagree. I seriously doubt that the Wilpons were sitting around thinking "the team really needs to plunk down $30-35 million 2014 dollars on Grandy, Young, and Colon". Rather, I think they were essentially shamed into it. They had to spend upto approx last year's payroll or there could be further fan revolt -- $100 million in tickets/concessions could easily turn to $75-80 etc, especially after so many years for promises. 2014 was held out for a while as some future Shangrila. They really dont give two shits about winning right now. They care about holding onto the team until they can reduce the debt load from crushing/ownership-threatening to manageable.
I think if everyone -- fans, WFAN, the Post etc. -- shut up about the dismal payroll compared to revenue and potential revenue, the Wilpons would ABSOLUTELY spend less. They could easily dump Colon this offseason, let Young walk, resign our RFAs, and call it an offseason. That's a .500 team anyway. They spend because of the chatter.
I think there's some truth in this but I think it comes through slightly differently. For example I believe the rumor that Sandy didn't want to go 4 years for Granderson, but Jeff Wilpon told him to do it because he wanted some positive press, and certainly didn't want months of negative press waiting while the players on the market who took 1 year deals got desperate. Practically speaking I don't think the PR changes how much they will actually spend in a given season, I think that's mostly determined by Sandy having a budget and trying to time his moves precisely within those constraints.
Like I've said all along. If there's money to spend, great. But color me skeptical until it's actually spent.
I disagree. I seriously doubt that the Wilpons were sitting around thinking "the team really needs to plunk down $30-35 million 2014 dollars on Grandy, Young, and Colon". Rather, I think they were essentially shamed into it. They had to spend upto approx last year's payroll or there could be further fan revolt -- $100 million in tickets/concessions could easily turn to $75-80 etc, especially after so many years for promises. 2014 was held out for a while as some future Shangrila. They really dont give two shits about winning right now. They care about holding onto the team until they can reduce the debt load from crushing/ownership-threatening to manageable.
I think if everyone -- fans, WFAN, the Post etc. -- shut up about the dismal payroll compared to revenue and potential revenue, the Wilpons would ABSOLUTELY spend less. They could easily dump Colon this offseason, let Young walk, resign our RFAs, and call it an offseason. That's a .500 team anyway. They spend because of the chatter.
I agree 100%. The Coupons signed Granderson for PR. Had they not signed anybody and went into the season with a $55 million dollar payroll the media pressure to sell the team would be gigantic.