NFT: Fantasy Chat - 8/19

I had some bad luck. Now arc's team was bad. It's almost impossible to go 0-13 and he pulled that one off.

In comment 11818249 YAJ2112 said:

Quote:

if you aren't going to follow them? The only time I go away from my rankings is if it's a positional issue - ie QB is highest ranked but I have a QB already, or I know I'm much higher on that player than everyone else and I'm willing to gamble that he slides to my next pick.

Lets say you go WR/WR in the first 2 rounds and there's a huge drop off in RBs in the 3rd round. Wouldn't have you rather take a RB that is ranked slightly lower in the 2nd and still pick up a stud WR in the 3rd?

I don't really go by rankings. I just have a bunch of targets I'm going for. I have trouble believing that people actually set up a 250 big board of guys. We all have guys that we just won't draft and guys we think are going to be studs.

Arc's team was awful

goes down on teh first series of the season.

In fantasy, ever.

57 moves.

Respect the hustle.

you are pretty much done if you drafted Charles at the top of the first.....unless of course you drafted his HANDCUFF!

AgF I use my rankings as a guide.

As the draft unfolds my strategy evolves, but it's nice to always have the rankings to fall back on.

I also do a lot of targeting specific players.

And despite my poor showing in the BBI league I usually do well in fantasy football.

that's where it pays to have this cheatsheet to fall back on!

In comment 11818261 AnotherGiantsFan said:

Quote:

In comment 11818249 YAJ2112 said: Quote: if you aren't going to follow them? The only time I go away from my rankings is if it's a positional issue - ie QB is highest ranked but I have a QB already, or I know I'm much higher on that player than everyone else and I'm willing to gamble that he slides to my next pick. Lets say you go WR/WR in the first 2 rounds and there's a huge drop off in RBs in the 3rd round. Wouldn't have you rather take a RB that is ranked slightly lower in the 2nd and still pick up a stud WR in the 3rd? I don't really go by rankings. I just have a bunch of targets I'm going for. I have trouble believing that people actually set up a 250 big board of guys. We all have guys that we just won't draft and guys we think are going to be studs.

I do my rankings by position and put them into tiers by position. Then I'll combine those out and sort them by tiers then positions to come up with my overall ranking and tweak the tiers where it makes sense to me based on the individual league.

I don't pay attention to it much after the first 5-6 rounds, it's more for getting who I think are the best players out there. I worry about filling out the lineup after that.

I'd much rather have the higher ranked player early even if it means my lineup is unbalanced. In your case, I'd rather have 3 stud WRs then end up with an RB I don't love.

Haha. The BBI league was the worst team I ever had in any fantasy league. Once I got to like 0-6 I just mailed it in.

I went into it with no strategy at all and just decided to wing it. My team was horrendous.

I'd love to know what your roster looked like. You had to have a serious string of bad luck with injuries or something.

arc
1. (9) Andre Johnson
(Hou - WR)
2. (16) Frank Gore
(SF - RB)
3. (33) LeGarrette Blount
(Pit - RB)
4. (40) Matt Schaub
(Oak - QB)
5. (57) Julio Jones
(Atl - WR)
6. (64) Jason Witten
(Dal - TE)
7. (81) Brandon Jacobs
(NYG - RB)
8. (88) Mike Sims-Walker
(Jax - WR)
9. (105) James Starks
(GB - RB)
10. (112) Joe Flacco
(Bal - QB)
11. (129) James Jones
(Oak - WR)
12. (136) Chicago
(Chi - DEF)
13. (153) Dustin Keller
(Mia - TE)
14. (160) Stephen Gostkowski
(NE - K)

by the way.

Yes, 2011.. which happened to be the worst year of Andre Johnson's entire career. He missed 9 games in 2011. He was 1 year removed from a 100 catch year where he led the league in recieving yards. I apparently thought he was going to be that guy again.

The Blount pick was terrible but he looked really good down the stretch in 2010. Apparently I thought he was going to be their horse and back then, people still thought Matt Schaub was capable of putting up big numbers. He led the league in pass yards in 2009.

It looks awful now, and it mostly was.. but.

Rookie Julio Jones also did miss 3 games. I thought he was going to be a beast right out of the gates but it took until the next year.

Andre Johnson was just injuries. Blount and Schaub were a reach but Schaub had injuries too.

I didn't realize how young Blount is. It feels like he's been in the league for so much longer. Only 27.

mine is saturday for my main league, I don't like drafting before 3rd pre-season game because of injuries, but it's the only day that worked. And some of the 3rd games will be over by then.

Julio Jones would have had stats that emulated his 2012 numbers.

Just bad luck.

if taking the RB (WR) early and waiting on the QB....but with that said...


I have done a few mock drafts and found that if I am picking 7th and Marshawn Lynch is gone, and I take Peyton Manning....then play catch up on the RBs and WRs the rest of the way....then compare that team with a team that sees me drafting Lynch 6th or 7th...and loading up on RBs and WRs throughout the next 6-7 rounds...then taking the QB late....

Based on 2013 stats, The team that has Peyton or even Brees at QB has more points scored than the team that drafted Lynch. ANd lynch had a great 2013 campaign...

The one negative with the QB led team? Less depth at RB and WR and less room for error at those same positions.

IN short, if you're gonna take the QB early, you better not fuck up too many skill player draft picks and even if you nail most or all, you will have less depth.

60-70 more points scored....that's about 4-5 points extra a week. But less depth...and god help you if Reggie Bush, or Gio or your 2nd WR shit the bed...you're in trouble then.

Just my take...I am really hoping I pick 1-4 so that I can take the stud RB and then load up on RB WR through the first 7 rounds--then take the QB late. If you take the QB early you really kind of force your hand and have to play catch up at RB, which can lead one to reach for that RB and then lose out on the valuable WRs...

It's a tough call but the numbers don't lie. To take the QB or not to take the QB...that is the question...

..not just Peyton...

Those are the only QBs I even consider taking in round 1...but man it's scary.

If you take those qbs your whole draft BPA thing kind of gets thrown out the window after that. In round 2, do you take the BErnard or Murray at RB or do you take the "better" WR there? If you take the WR, you are left with RB scraps in round 3...then you are faced with taking a scrap heap RB in rd 3 or a Jordy Nelson type..again, better value at WR...so do you once again ignore the RB? Then you're drafting Gary Downs in rd 4....scary.

Yeah, he was still pretty good even as a rook. Definitely a chance he would have hit double digit TD's if he had played all 16 games. But oh well.

Andre got hurt early that year, IIRC.. which in turn, pretty much fucked up Schaub's year as well so it was a double whammy.

Pretty sure I was the one who picked up Cruz, though.

if you take the Matt Forte or even Lynch, who I still love, you can just zero in on value over the next 7 rounds or so...even 8 rounds. You can take BPA at Rb or Wr and not look back. Then get the Rivers, Wilson, Ryan, Big Ben...in round 8-9...

your skill players will be stacked but your overall pt total will probably be lower than the team with Peyton or Brees.

I hope I don't have to make this choice. I don't do well when I take the QB high. It always seems to end up fucking me up.

djm.. I took Peterson at 4 and still got Brees in the 2nd. So, you never know.

i'm keeping Julio Jones and Percy Harvin for a 7th and 8th round pick. I have the 2nd pick of the draft. Only QB's kept are Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

I expect McCoy to go 1st, so then I have my choice of Forte (who I'm picking), Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, etc

I also pick 17 and 20 (it's a keeper league so a lot of players are not on the board), but if I wait to 17 20 Rodgers and Brees are definitely gone and now I'm playing out the string like you suggest with BPA RB/WR until I get to probably 6th round where I get my QB because I don't have a 7th or 8th round pick. In the 6th I can get Stafford, Ryan, Romo, Newton, Luck, etc. most likely.

or would you even wait further than that (like 10th/11th) and gamble on RG3, Foles (not sure how this league will value him), Palmer, etc.

The mistake I might have made was taking Morris in the 3rd rd instead of Antonio Brown.

I just thought the dropoff in RB's was going to be way steeper than the dropoff in WR's between my 3rd and 4th pick. There were like 6 RB's that came off the board between those picks for me, so. I decided I could still get a good WR in rd. 4 (it was between Vjax and Roddy.. I took Vjax)

is awesome, but I saw a stat that he had by far the most yards (in 2012) out of the read option of anyone in the league.

he had a significantly less of a year last year.

But I think you need to question how/if Gruden still plans to run the read option. if so, Morris could have a huge year, other he'll be just another in that 2nd tier of backs.

I love Antonio Brown though.

Is there a reason you guys don't do/like auction drafts?

Morris is in a clump of 3rd tier RB's.

which is why I'm down on Morris.

auction drafts

These are the RB's I would have been looking at as my RB2..

Gerhart
Vereen
Spiller
Rice
Gore
Sankey
Lamar Miller

I'm not all that high on any guy in that group. Gerhart, Gore (not crazy about him this year) and Sankey are the only guys who are definitely getting the lions share and I have a feeling Sankey is going to be something like 2013 Daryl Richardson. I felt like VJax/Roddy + Morris was better than Antonio Brown + one of the guys above. In any event, even if Brown + one of the other backs would have been the better combo, I doubt it will be by much.

I could have waited a couple more rds and gone Ben Tate but if I was going to take Tate, I wanted it to be as my 3rd RB. There's Richardson, too.. but he just doesn't do it for me.

handcuff guy, but I do like Gore if you can handcuff him with Hyde.

I keep waiting for Gore to reach the end and he keeps putting up top 10 - 20 fantasy football RB numbers. That's all you can expect from your #2 if you get him late.

I have been for a few years and get proven wrong every year. But every year, I think "I'm gonna take him and then it'll happen" .. so I keep avoiding him.

Probably not a good strategy, but.

and when I play his team he puts up 2 TD's

and possibly making other teams pick a WR higher, lessening my chance to grab one at 24 (i'm picking 1), am I nuts for wanting to trade my #1 pick for the #4 pick?

I'm guaranteed a top 4 RB, and to be honest, I think im cofortable with either of them. Each has pros/cons; I just see a huge drop off in WR talent if I can't get Antonio Brown or Alshon Jeffrey.

Would you rather Charles/Cobb or AP or Forte/Brown?

*

6 points for all TD's, 50 yards per passing TD. Here was last years draft with the same people playing, I picked #2. Obviously some head scratchers, so i'm guessing something dumb happens again and someone will fall to me, but I want to be prepared...

1. Ray Rice (Bal - RB)
2. Adrian Peterson (Min - RB) - Me
3. Arian Foster (Hou - RB)
4. Doug Martin (TB - RB)
5. C.J. Spiller (Buf - RB)
6. Marshawn Lynch (Sea - RB)
7. Jamaal Charles (KC - RB)
8. LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB)
9. Trent Richardson (Ind - RB)
10. Calvin Johnson (Det - WR)
11. Matt Forte (Chi - RB)
12. Alfred Morris (Was - RB)

Round 2
1. Maurice Jones-Drew (Oak - RB)
2. Randall Cobb (GB - WR)
3. Steven Jackson (Atl - RB)
4. Brandon Marshall (Chi - WR)
5. Reggie Bush (Det - RB)
6. Stevan Ridley (NE - RB)
7. Darren Sproles (Phi - RB)
8. Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB)
9. Darren McFadden (Oak - RB)
10. Dez Bryant (Dal - WR)
11. A.J. Green (Cin - WR) - Me
12. Julio Jones (Atl - WR)

Round 3
1. Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR)
2. Jimmy Graham (NO - TE) - Me
3. David Wilson (NYG - RB)
4. Andre Johnson (Hou - WR)
5. Chris Johnson (NYJ - RB)
6. Frank Gore
7. DeMarco Murray (Dal - RB)
8. Drew Brees (NO - QB)
9. Eddie Lacy (GB - RB)
10. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR)
11. Roddy White (Atl - WR)
12. Victor Cruz (NYG - WR)

That's a tough call.. I'd probably wait even further and take the QB in rd 9 but playing it by ear, anything can happen.

have a choice of keeping either Deymaryius Thomas or Jimmy Graham as my second keeper.

You guys have thoughts on whether or not its a good thing to roll with the QB WR1 from the same team? Worked really well most of last year as there were enough balls for everyone and this year there are fewer WR's so he should get lots of looks, but I got burned by an off week in the playoffs last year.

why wouldn't it? Stats are stats. At the end of the day you want most points scored and if you feel thats Peyton and Thomas, go for it.

If it was RB/WR maybe i'd hesitate, but now QB/WR.

In comment 11818263 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

Arc's team was awful

OH HEY THERE NO. 1

about the topic of drafting QB/WR's/TE's on the same team. The study showed that it's not a good strategy because of the all or nothing nature, but I don't think that factors in when you are talking Peyton/Brees and Thomas/Graham. Those guys are as consistent and great as they come.

When you are watching NFL redzone and see your fantasy QB throwing a bomb to your fantasy WR.

Goddamnit. I'm mad at myself now for not taking Antonio Brown in the 3rd rd after watching the game last night. I almost forgot how awesome he was last year and I think he'll have another similar year.

Luckily it was the lesser of the 2 leagues I'm in. My main league didn't draft yet so, lesson learned. I think I'll be much more prepared for that draft.

I don't even hate my team that I just drafted I just wish I had taken Brown over Morris. I was just too worried I'd wind up with an RB2 who was time sharing.

He's going to put up stats similar to last year, IMO. He's incredible value in the 3rd round. Morris has some upside potential to be a solid RB, I just don't see him being a top RB or comparable to Brown.

yeah I wouldn't think twice about Brown of Morris. Can't worry about your 2nd RB. There will be time shares in 75% of the back fields by mid-season, IMO.

But Morris is incredible value in the 3rd IMO. Especially in regular formats. The guy had a 1600 yards in his first year, 1200 in his 2nd year. Am I supposed to just believe a great offensive mind like Jay Gruden will not be able to figure out a way to utilize a one cut bruising back?

He's one of the few workhorse backs and a lock for goal line carries since they want to keep RG3 out of harms way.

drafting Carlos Hyde or where do you see him going?

In my keeper league he's a guy I'm targeting. I hope to get him late but I think he'll be overdrafted.

that Brown is the last of the prime WR group. He's a sure thing outside of health.

Morris is a rock, but but who knows what the new system does.