Has anyone ever tried this out. It sounds pretty nuts but some of his points did make sense. Basically waiting to draft a RB til after the 5th round and getting stud TE and Stud WRs. Waiting to Draft RBS - ( New Window )
I've done similar things for a couple of years. There are always RBs that come out of nowhere on the waiver wire that you can start for a few weeks here and there to help make up for the lack of a consistent starter.
I don't recommend going into a draft with that as your target strategy, but if the draft falls that way you can still build a very strong team without taking an RB early.
wrs are much safer of the 3 wr busts he listed julio jones was having a monster year before his injury, that could happen to anyone. Johnson and Fitz both had really shaky qb situations. If you're drafting someone like graham or thomas or calvin you know the only real bust risk is if they get hurt or their qb does and the back up is just awful
but that is just extreme. He is using one year as a reference. A lot of people didn't like Martin last year because, as a rookie, the majority of his points came in just a couple of games. Rice was struggling prior to last year. Spiller burned a lot of people. I get the risk with taking a RB early. I do. But why draft a backup WR before securing better backs. You cannot start Devona Freeman all year and expect to make the playoffs. He is definitely a guy that can help you during your stretch run but if you are depending on guys like him as starters all year long then you are not making the playoffs. There are also more steals at WR late than RBs. Also, I hate when they talk rounds for players. I think the majority of people play in 12 team leagues. However, when doing rankings I think they are done based on 10 team league.
I did a 10 team league where I went RB RB with my first two picks and this is what I ended up with (a lot has to do with draft positioning as well and I had the first pick) in a non-PPR league.
Stafford
Peterson
Bernard
Rice
Pierce
Ingram
Hill
Jones
Fitz
Hilton
Wayne
Witten
Kelce
I think I did really well waiting on WR until the third and fourth rounds by then all the top backs were off the board. I get that he is saying top backs falter but I also got Pierce and Hill as backups that should be productive even with Bernard and Rice there.
It is not as easy as saying wait until round five for backs. He gives no reference of who is still available, if it is a PPR league, what slot he drafted from and how many teams are in the league. Also, a lot depends on what site you use. That draft up top was from NFL.com. I normally use CBS. My cousin uses ESPN and all the rankings are WAY different. ESPN has RBs pushed down I believe. So does NFL.com. CBS has backs listed much higher. I got Bernard with the 20th pick while in CBS he is listed as a late first or early second round pick in a 12 team league.
I just don't get why Spiller along with our own D. Wilson were drafted so high last year. Amazing.
This year, Martin has dropped back, Spiller has as well and DW, you know.
What are the first round busts this year? I say Lynch $ Lacy. Lynch, the tires are wearing and that division is a bitch. Also, his motivation may be down. I don't feel comfortable leaving a #7/8 pick in the first round with him.
Lacy, jeesh. Played very well when Rodgers went down and the whole O changed. Rodgers is pretty sturdy and to risk a mid 1st round pick on him- just not happy. Whats he get you...1100/1200 6/7 TD's?
Also, Forte as a top 4 pick- bothers me also. I know, depending on your scoring- Peyton, Charles, McCoy or Charles, McCoy... this guy catches passes, runs well but doesn't produce consistently.
Dare I say those picking #1/2 or #9/10 win the majority of their leagues this year.
I have the 3rd pick in a 12 team non ppr league. I really want to trade back a few spots and use this strategy. AP and Forte both scare me a little as they're both 29.
In my draft Sunday. I did not take a back till the 6th round Ben Tate my first back picked. My other backs are sproles.bradshaw Steven Jackson and Carlos Hyde.
Is by determining costs and value dropoffs. If you're going to make Ben Tate your RB1, you have to figure out if you think the gap between he and the RB's you pass on in the early rounds will be smaller than the QB/WR/TE 's you take instead and those of them who will still be on the board when you do draft your RB.
That's really all it comes down to.
The best thing to do is create tiers and have them in front of you. You want to get as many upper tier guys as you can.
In my draft, I took Peterson with the 4th pick and then got Brees with the 17th. That, to me was a great way to start my team because I got both an elite tier QB AND an elite tier RB.
you have to see what happens prior to your pick and make a judgment call based on the circumstances. However, to purposefully punt on a RB until the 5th (e.g., when the established starters are gone) is foolish, IMO. That means you're picking up middle of the road WRs instead of starting backs.
You'd be better of (for example) with a QB Forte, Antonio Brown, Coradelle Patterson, and Eric Decker than you would be with a QB, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Davonta Freeman simply because your #1 running back would be getting you virtually no points each week while a #2/3 receiver like Decker is still going to put up numbers week in an week out, even if the numbers are less than a guy like Megatron puts up.
You really have to look at replacement value at the position rather than total points because you can only field a limited number of wide receivers and guys like Cecil Shorts (ADP 138) are going to be far more valuable in the WR2/flex position than a LeGarrette Blount (ADP 135) simply because of the nature of their positions.
And while people always claim that injuries can propel bench RBs into the starter slot, I don't see how that affects your draft strategy unless you have already drafted a guy who *needs* a handcuff (e.g., Ben Tate) because (a) if you're drafting a handcuff in early/mid-round, you're punting on major points unless and until someone gets hurt, which may never happen; and (b) if its a totally valueless handcuff (e.g., KaDeem Carey, James Starks), this chances are that these guys are going to be on the waiver wire anyway or can be had in the last round or two.
I think its far more wise to secure starting RBs (which requires picks prior to round 5), even if it means drafting a Rashad Jennings or Andre Ellington in round 3-4.
This year, punt on QBs. I picked up RGIII, McCown and Tannehill all after round 6 this year while loading my bench with Jordy, Roddy, Shady and Doug Martin - all first rate must-starters - and Cordarrelle Patterson who, although no sure thing, is poised for a big year.
There are always WR's that add decent to good numbers in the lower rounds. Teams are now employing 1 main RB so you better get two. Teams are also using 3-4 WR sets, so there are plenty of points out there in later rounds.
I did a 12 team mock draft yesterday at the 7th spot Â
Obviously I love your WRs but your backs are terrible. Joique Bell is the main guy in Detroit but still I have no idea how they will use their backs. The are basically running the Saints offense so I am skeptical about both backs. Moreno hasn't done anything to date and Miller may be their main guy. CJ2K was probably goid value where you got him but they already said they are rotating 3 backs on that team. To me you are going to have two huge holes in your lineup every week. Also, I like Reed but with that new offense I don't know. No Cincinnati TE amounted to anything in his offense so I am very skeptical about Reed this year. He has a ton of potential but I would want him as a number 2 TE not a number one.
Here is my 12 team PPR league roster. It was a keeper league but we kept one player each. I drafted first (13th overall).
Peyton (13th)
Palmer
Forte
Ryan Mathews
Woodhead
Pierce
Hyde
Ingram
White
Garcon
Wright
Cooper
John Brown
Clay
Reed
im liking this year, depending on where you draft. Â
There are always WR's that add decent to good numbers in the lower rounds. Teams are now employing 1 main RB so you better get two. Teams are also using 3-4 WR sets, so there are plenty of points out there in later rounds.
I see less single backfields and way more split duties, not sure where you see more team with 1 main RB...
As for 3-4 WR sets, to me, its important to get the studs who don't get the diluted stats in those 3-4 WR sets. Demaryius Thomas plays in a 3-4 WR offense but is arguable the best WR in the NFL. The drop off is huge, and if every team has those medicore WR's, your team will be no different.
Just my take of course, but RB injuries are fantasy killers (or winners if you take advantage).
UConn I have turned over to your side from last year but Â
What I think you fail to point out is that if you had Jamaal Charles last year then you probably won your league. I think almost every league I was in the winner had Charles because he was so dominant. I picked up Stacy last year and finished third. I picked up Asiata for a week and won that game but he didn't do shit after. These FA pickups are nice but if you are relying on picking them up to win then I think you will lose anyway. I don't think you can completely ignore the position. I think a RB should still be taken in one of the top three rounds and then you can target one later.
There's a good chance that I am in this position. Â
I will only take 4 RB's in rd 1 and the odds are that they will go 1-4 in the draft and there are only 2 others I would draft in the 2nd. I won't reach in the 3rd just because I don't have one yet because there are so many top/2nd tier WR's that are pretty much guaranteed to produce if they stay healthy. WR's are so much easier to predict than RB's, therefore they are safer. Plus there will be a good 5 RB's that come available via the waiver wire.
I will only take 4 RB's in rd 1 and the odds are that they will go 1-4 in the draft and there are only 2 others I would draft in the 2nd. I won't reach in the 3rd just because I don't have one yet because there are so many top/2nd tier WR's that are pretty much guaranteed to produce if they stay healthy. WR's are so much easier to predict than RB's, therefore they are safer. Plus there will be a good 5 RB's that come available via the waiver wire.
Who are the 6 RBs you'd take in the first and second rounds?
Obviously, McCoy, AP, Charles and Forte. Who else?
I'm surprised you wouldn't take Martin in the second.
I wouldn't touch Martin. Martin had a few good games as a rookie and a lot of bad games. Lovie rotates backs. I love Ball and Bernard this year. I understand the concern surrounding Ball. I don't get why people aren't higher on Bernard. What about Alfred Morris? This guy is very consistent and it sounds like he has been catching the balk well too.
I just think that the next tier of RB's is so clumped Â
and I don't like any of them more than the studs that will be available in the 2nd round. My next tier of RB's are Bell, Bernard, Foster, Ball, Murray, Ellington. I even like my next tier of RB's for the 5th round or later...Jennings, Martin, Tate.
Foster this year coming off his back surgery and in a new system. I also don't like Bell. I was never a big fan of his and now he is losing out on TDs to Blount.
Wait till the 5th to draft a rb? Fine. You better hit on those Wrs and TEs you drafted early on and you better hit on those Rbs you drafted late.
It's all about the players you draft. Some strategies might be better for you than others based on one's ability to identify talent at a specific position. I tend to suck ass when i take the QB early and then scramble for Rbs and Wrs...
6. Lacy
7. Bernard
8. Bell
9. Foster
10.Murray
11.Ball
12.Ellington
13.Morris
14.Jennings
15.Tate
16.Martin
Still some questions regarding the Bills and how they will use their guys, but Spiller is up there somewhere. Then you have guys like Bush and Bell who will have good value as starters. Stacy, Gerhart, Mathews, Vereen, CJ1K, Gore.
I don't see any reaason to reach for a RB in this draft when QB's and WR's are much easier to predict and score more points.
well yes, but the question is ... I think I'd take BALL (not bell), Murray and Bernard all over Lynch... the wear & tear of last year and the emergence of the two back-ups scares the hell out of me this year re: Lynch
Lacy is the clear cut #5 overall to me, and would group him in the first round with those other 4 guys. I might even like him better than ADP this year considering their respective offenses and mileage on those tires.
I'm surprised you wouldn't take Martin in the second.
I wouldn't touch Martin. Martin had a few good games as a rookie and a lot of bad games. Lovie rotates backs. I love Ball and Bernard this year. I understand the concern surrounding Ball. I don't get why people aren't higher on Bernard. What about Alfred Morris? This guy is very consistent and it sounds like he has been catching the balk well too.
I was concerned about Martin until Sims went down. I'd be surprised if Sims sees any action next season and TB has flat out said that Martin is now their "bell cow". He's getting 20-25 touches a game with Rainey being used only as a change of pace guy. I would take him over any guy after the 6 that Kmed has listed. With McCown behind center and VJax and Evans paired together, he is going to have a much easier time running the ball. Plus their schedule isn't exactly tough against the run.
I'm worried about Bernard because he doesn't get goal-line touches and there's nothing to suggest that he will at any point this season. Regarding Ball, Peyton has been singing Hillman's praises all pre-season, just like he did with Moreno last year. For value, I'd take Hillman in the 10th or 11th before I took Ball in the second because the starter there will be the guy that best protects the QB and there is no indication that that guy is definitively Ball.
Alfred Morris I like in the 3rd over guys like Bernard and LeVeon Bell and right after Martin.
well yes, but the question is ... I think I'd take BALL (not bell), Murray and Bernard all over Lynch... the wear & tear of last year and the emergence of the two back-ups scares the hell out of me this year re: Lynch
Lacy is the clear cut #5 overall to me, and would group him in the first round with those other 4 guys. I might even like him better than ADP this year considering their respective offenses and mileage on those tires.
I agree with everything except Lacy. I'm a little bearish on him. The Packers made it an emphasis to run the shit out of the ball with Rodgers out. I was impressed with what he was able to accomplish with no QB. However, with Rodgers back do they continue to force feed him the ball? I don't know. The biggest reason I am a little skeptical is because he dealt with foot issues in college and got a concussion last year. I feel like there is injury risk. Also, from my experience playing, coaching and watching football it always seems like once a player gets a concussion they are much more likely to get another one. The good news is that there has been ample time of rest from his last one.
Bell losing carries is overstated, IMO. I still really like him. Â
He's going to be their main workhorse and he's going to compile just based on touches, IMO. I wouldn't take him before the 3rd however.
If you annualize his season last year, he would have been the 6th ranked RB in my league. He may lose a few goalline carries, but I don't think it's going to effect him being a top 10 back just based on touches.
I'm surprised you wouldn't take Martin in the second.
I wouldn't touch Martin. Martin had a few good games as a rookie and a lot of bad games. Lovie rotates backs. I love Ball and Bernard this year. I understand the concern surrounding Ball. I don't get why people aren't higher on Bernard. What about Alfred Morris? This guy is very consistent and it sounds like he has been catching the balk well too.
I was concerned about Martin until Sims went down. I'd be surprised if Sims sees any action next season and TB has flat out said that Martin is now their "bell cow". He's getting 20-25 touches a game with Rainey being used only as a change of pace guy. I would take him over any guy after the 6 that Kmed has listed. With McCown behind center and VJax and Evans paired together, he is going to have a much easier time running the ball. Plus their schedule isn't exactly tough against the run.
I'm worried about Bernard because he doesn't get goal-line touches and there's nothing to suggest that he will at any point this season. Regarding Ball, Peyton has been singing Hillman's praises all pre-season, just like he did with Moreno last year. For value, I'd take Hillman in the 10th or 11th before I took Ball in the second because the starter there will be the guy that best protects the QB and there is no indication that that guy is definitively Ball.
Alfred Morris I like in the 3rd over guys like Bernard and LeVeon Bell and right after Martin.
I couldn't disagree with you more on Bernard and Ball. Bernard has and will continue to get goal line work. His coach said as much and still had like 8 TDs last year. As far as Ball goes, Fox has said he is the main guy and when he got injured Fox came out and said he has seen enough of Ball last year and this year that he is fine if he misses the rest of the preseason. On too of that, it speaks volumes that they didn't bring in another vet back when Moreno wasn't coming back. Hillman had a huge opportunity last year to be the main back and blew it. He blew it so bad that Moreno was the starter and Ball was the backup.
I absolutely LOVE that everyone is downplaying Lynch. Â
His ADP is dropping fast and I will be ecstatic to scoop him up at 15. He's a beast, has shown 0 signs of slowing down, has missed 1 game in the past 4 seasons and 0 games in the last 2 seasons. He also just turned 28. I'm very bullish on Lynch and I'm starting to rethink my stategy because he will be availabel in rd 2(pick 15) for me.
In comment 11819124 robbieballs2003 said:
I couldn't disagree with you more on Bernard and Ball. Bernard has and will continue to get goal line work. His coach said as much and still had like 8 TDs last year. As far as Ball goes, Fox has said he is the main guy and when he got injured Fox came out and said he has seen enough of Ball last year and this year that he is fine if he misses the rest of the preseason. On too of that, it speaks volumes that they didn't bring in another vet back when Moreno wasn't coming back. Hillman had a huge opportunity last year to be the main back and blew it. He blew it so bad that Moreno was the starter and Ball was the backup. [/quote]
From NFL Live (quotes from Peyton):
"Hillman is taking a much larger roll in the offense."
"Hillman has stepped up."
Now, if I'm looking at spending a second rounder, I'm quite hesitant to use it on a guy who didn't start last year, had some ball control issues, and has a perfectly capable backup in Hillman who (according to the most important possible source) "is taking a larger roll in the offense." No question in my mind Ball is going to get more touches this season, but is it going to be RBBC? Is Hillman going to eat into a significant number of Ball's carries? I think the answer to the first question is maybe and the second question, almost certainly. With that in mind, I'm not taking him with any of the top 30 picks when there are better alternatives (both at RB and other positions) out there.
Gio also has questions about him, but I think less so than Ball. Gio will see 8-12 TDs this season and will probably get 60-70% of the carries. He hasn't proven that he is a great runner yet (4.1 YPC) or that he will be getting goal-line work. There are a lot of question marks here.
Look, one or both of these guys could have a great season that justifies them being picked in the second round. On the other hand, it is just as likely they have a pretty good season on par with some players available in later (3-4) rounds. In either case, you have to ask yourself, why are you taking a guy with question marks with your second round pick when a known stud like Jordy Nelson is sitting on the board?
Of course Hillman will have a bigger role in the offense. He had no role last year and that was for a reason. I think Ball will have more than 1200 yards and 8 TDs so I would definitely take him over Nelson, easily. Hillman cannot pass protect which will limit his playing time.
Bernard has proven to be valuable on the goal line. I don't get why you are discounting that. Yes, Hill will be mixed in but it isn't going to be 109% of the time. As a rookie in a limited role Bernard had 1200 yards and 8 TDs. He will be getting the ball early and often in that run first offense. He is a matchup nightmare.
but it's such a high powered offense that both should end up being really solid plays, with Ball having potential to finish in the top 3 overall. I would draft them both - hopefully Hillman you can get late.
Also like the fact that Decker is gone - he was a big red zone target. Sanders can get you down the field, but doesnt have the EZ presence that Decker had. Should create more TDs for the Denver RBs, no?
Hate to ask ya, but do you have this years draftkit? I love using that to check over my magazines and such. If not or if ya do and don't want to share just tell me to F-OFF! HAHA! I'd feel right at home!
Hate to ask ya, but do you have this years draftkit? I love using that to check over my magazines and such. If not or if ya do and don't want to share just tell me to F-OFF! HAHA! I'd feel right at home!
is going to compile fantasy points based on the fact that he's going to run a lot, catch a lot and get goalline work.
I thought this was happening for Bell, but it's becoming more and more apparent that Blount is getting a solid amount of carries and most of the goal line work.
If I knew this before my draft, I would have drafted Gio. Whatever.
Gio and Murray to me are the clear cut most talented and most ideal of the young and somewhat unknown RB group. LAcy is nice...but the mitigating circumstances scare me. The rest are solid but don't come close to Gio and Murray, in my eyes. And i'd probably take Gio over Murray based on a cleaner health history, although that's probably overstated a bit.
PLus Murray is a Cowboy so he's got that working against him. Guy is a legit talent and has the OL in front of him. If he plays he's putting up good numbers.
I don't think his injury history is overstated and Murray Â
has dropped in my rankings because of it. Guys are banged up late in the season and that's when it matters most. In 3 seasons, he's missed:
3 games
6 games
2 games
I guess the odds are slightly stacked in favor of Murray missing more time...but it's still pretty much luck of draw. Murray could just as easliy be due for a 5 year streak of good health.
injuries are almost impossible to predict, but when a guy like Murray has missed multiple games with multiple injuries in his first 3 seasons, he drops in my rankings.
Of course Hillman will have a bigger role in the offense. He had no role last year and that was for a reason. I think Ball will have more than 1200 yards and 8 TDs so I would definitely take him over Nelson, easily. Hillman cannot pass protect which will limit his playing time.
Bernard has proven to be valuable on the goal line. I don't get why you are discounting that. Yes, Hill will be mixed in but it isn't going to be 109% of the time. As a rookie in a limited role Bernard had 1200 yards and 8 TDs. He will be getting the ball early and often in that run first offense. He is a matchup nightmare.
Ball and Hillman are both going to see an increased workload, no question. But is Ball going to get 90% of Moreno's touches? 60%? 40%? The point is that we don't know the answer to that question. If its around 75%, you've got a bona fide #1 back with 300 touches. If its 50%, you've got a low-end #1 RB with 240 touches.
Fact is, the Broncos are going to trot out whomever Peyton is most comfortable. It could be Ball, or it could RBBC. You don't know any more than I do. Remember, the Broncos will be a pass-first team and you can't assume they let Moreno go because they want Ball to be the bell cow.
As I mentioned before, Gio is both the safe and more talented choice of the two, and I can't disagree with the fact that he should have a great season, but the question is whether he will see goal line touches and how Marvin Lewis will use him.
Again, though, with either pick, you're taking a risk on an unknown. Is it "wrong" to do so? Absolutely not. But (as I suspect KMed thinks) whiffing on a 2nd round pick can kill your season and sometimes its better to go with the safer, known commodity.
Because Manning is the quarterback, Ball is likely to get points from the passing game, but his pass blocking could limit his time on the field. Among the 54 running backs playing at least 25 percent of their team’s passing plays, Ball ranked 41st in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency metric. Knowshon Moreno, now in Miami, was 24th. And Moreno was a much better route runner than Ball.
One optimistic, but plausible, outcome is Ball has the rushing season outlined above and adds 300 yards receiving with two touchdowns for a total of 194 points, good enough for the top ten last season and in line with his selection as the eighth running back overall.
A more likely scenario is he is unable to adequately protect Manning and sees his receiving points reduced by 26 points (200 yards and a touchdown), which would drop him to the 15th most valuable back, which is worthy of a third-round selection in mock drafts.
Granted, for every one of these articles, there is one touting Ball as a top 5 RB this season, but that's exactly my point. There is a nice potential payoff for taking a risk on Ball in early to mid 2nd round, but you are also taking a risk. No matter how we analyze the situation in Denver, the truth is that no one outside of Fox, Gase, and Peyton knows how Ball is going to be used (and even then, plans change). In my view, if I have an early second round pick, I'm using it on a known commodity, not a wildcard with a big upside. Linky - ( New Window )
6. Lacy
7. Bernard
8. Bell
9. Foster
10.Murray
11.Ball
12.Ellington
13.Morris
14.Jennings
15.Tate
16.Martin
Still some questions regarding the Bills and how they will use their guys, but Spiller is up there somewhere. Then you have guys like Bush and Bell who will have good value as starters. Stacy, Gerhart, Mathews, Vereen, CJ1K, Gore.
Then there are starters
What's the concern with Stacy? To me he is even with Ellington and would not surprise me in the slightest if he outperformed Foster this year considering how bad the Texans offense should be.
Stacy is a volume guy. So he'll get his touches but I don't think he even averaged 4 YPC last year. He was good, not great. It was just that he was their bell cow and it gave him added value.
Also, I would take Gio over Murray easily. And not just because Murray is a Cowboy.
I actually read that article the other day. It is lazy. It questions Ball's pass protection as a rookie with no emphasis on how he improves or how well the other Bronco RBs have performed. It means nothing to me. Fox saying he trusts Ball means a hell of a lot more to me. I get what you are saying. We won't know for sure until the season begins. I agree. However, I go with what I see and that tells me Ball is the guy.
Didnt take a RB until 5. 10 team no ppr. 3 overall Â
1) Graham (Charles was available but implementing the no RB until 5.)
2) Marshall
3) Nelson
4) R. White
5) Spiller (This is what I was left with)
6) C. Johnson
7) T. Richardson
8) E. Sanders
9) S. Jackson
10) Sproles
11) Maclin
12) Dalton
13) A. Smith
14) Bills
15) S. Graham
Looking at this, I'm not going to wait until 5 to pick a RB in my real draft.
your first problem was going no RB from the 3 hole Â
it's not a strategy for when you have a shot at the top tier RBs
This.
You try no RB if McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte, probably Lynch and maybe Lacy are off the board when you pick in the 1st rd. If you can take one of those top 3-4 guys, you have to do it. Taking Jimmy Graham in the top 5 is too high. Too high for Calvin, too. The highest I'd take Peyton is probably 5.
is trying to say - but it's a horrible strategy. Mainly because its far easier to get a valuable WR later in a draft or in free agency than any other position. Guys like Alshon Jeffrey, Keenan Allen and Julian Edleman come to mind as examples of undrafted receivers that provided tremendous value last year.
There really isnt much of a equivalency for RB's and QB's that would be available after the 5th round or undrafted that would be able to produce for you early in the season. You can point to guys like Nick Foles, Bobby Rainey, Josh McCown - but those guys weren't providing any value until an injury incurred and towards the final parts of the season.
If you wait till the 6th round to get a QB or a RB you will likely be fucked. a better "extreme" strategy would be to take a QB and 4 RB's in the first 5 rounds, especially in non-ppr leagues.
who was drafting Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Knowshon Moreno, Phillip Rivers early last year? Lacy and Bell were 4-7th round picks, Bernard a little later than that. Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell, Andre Brown were all undrafted producers.
There are always guys that can be picked up on the cheap that will produce at RB. You just have to work a little to find them and replace them when they lose their touches.
some good value RB's or even QB's that can be had outside of the first 5 rounds - there are, but value WR's are just more plentiful. Regardless, I'd say there are only about 5 top tier WR's that stand out above the rest on any given season - the most any person would be able to get is 2 of them even if they use their top 5 picks on WR. After those 5 there isn't much disparity between some of the rest of the WR's that can be had through about round 8 or in free agency depending on who you're able to acquire. The bottom line is that you can have a solid WR trio in your starting lineup without having to use 3-5 of your top picks on the position.
Just wanted to let you know that I ended up taking Bernard #12 overall in a 12 team league because of the way the draft went. I figured that you would appreciate knowing that after all my hemming and hawing about questions surrounding Bernard, when the cards were laid on the table, I felt that I had to take him.
I don't recommend going into a draft with that as your target strategy, but if the draft falls that way you can still build a very strong team without taking an RB early.
I did a 10 team league where I went RB RB with my first two picks and this is what I ended up with (a lot has to do with draft positioning as well and I had the first pick) in a non-PPR league.
Stafford
Peterson
Bernard
Rice
Pierce
Ingram
Hill
Jones
Fitz
Hilton
Wayne
Witten
Kelce
I think I did really well waiting on WR until the third and fourth rounds by then all the top backs were off the board. I get that he is saying top backs falter but I also got Pierce and Hill as backups that should be productive even with Bernard and Rice there.
It is not as easy as saying wait until round five for backs. He gives no reference of who is still available, if it is a PPR league, what slot he drafted from and how many teams are in the league. Also, a lot depends on what site you use. That draft up top was from NFL.com. I normally use CBS. My cousin uses ESPN and all the rankings are WAY different. ESPN has RBs pushed down I believe. So does NFL.com. CBS has backs listed much higher. I got Bernard with the 20th pick while in CBS he is listed as a late first or early second round pick in a 12 team league.
This year, Martin has dropped back, Spiller has as well and DW, you know.
What are the first round busts this year? I say Lynch $ Lacy. Lynch, the tires are wearing and that division is a bitch. Also, his motivation may be down. I don't feel comfortable leaving a #7/8 pick in the first round with him.
Lacy, jeesh. Played very well when Rodgers went down and the whole O changed. Rodgers is pretty sturdy and to risk a mid 1st round pick on him- just not happy. Whats he get you...1100/1200 6/7 TD's?
Also, Forte as a top 4 pick- bothers me also. I know, depending on your scoring- Peyton, Charles, McCoy or Charles, McCoy... this guy catches passes, runs well but doesn't produce consistently.
Dare I say those picking #1/2 or #9/10 win the majority of their leagues this year.
That's really all it comes down to.
The best thing to do is create tiers and have them in front of you. You want to get as many upper tier guys as you can.
In my draft, I took Peterson with the 4th pick and then got Brees with the 17th. That, to me was a great way to start my team because I got both an elite tier QB AND an elite tier RB.
You'd be better of (for example) with a QB Forte, Antonio Brown, Coradelle Patterson, and Eric Decker than you would be with a QB, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Davonta Freeman simply because your #1 running back would be getting you virtually no points each week while a #2/3 receiver like Decker is still going to put up numbers week in an week out, even if the numbers are less than a guy like Megatron puts up.
You really have to look at replacement value at the position rather than total points because you can only field a limited number of wide receivers and guys like Cecil Shorts (ADP 138) are going to be far more valuable in the WR2/flex position than a LeGarrette Blount (ADP 135) simply because of the nature of their positions.
And while people always claim that injuries can propel bench RBs into the starter slot, I don't see how that affects your draft strategy unless you have already drafted a guy who *needs* a handcuff (e.g., Ben Tate) because (a) if you're drafting a handcuff in early/mid-round, you're punting on major points unless and until someone gets hurt, which may never happen; and (b) if its a totally valueless handcuff (e.g., KaDeem Carey, James Starks), this chances are that these guys are going to be on the waiver wire anyway or can be had in the last round or two.
I think its far more wise to secure starting RBs (which requires picks prior to round 5), even if it means drafting a Rashad Jennings or Andre Ellington in round 3-4.
This year, punt on QBs. I picked up RGIII, McCown and Tannehill all after round 6 this year while loading my bench with Jordy, Roddy, Shady and Doug Martin - all first rate must-starters - and Cordarrelle Patterson who, although no sure thing, is poised for a big year.
qb Newton, Romo
wr D Thomas, Marshall, Shorts, Smith
rb Bush, Gore, CJ2K, Pierre Thomas,Moreno
Te Reed, Eifert
D Carolina
K Walsh
not bad for a ppr. Thomas and Marshall catch a ton. Bush CJ2k, Moreno and Pierre all featured in their teams pass games.
Here is my 12 team PPR league roster. It was a keeper league but we kept one player each. I drafted first (13th overall).
Peyton (13th)
Palmer
Forte
Ryan Mathews
Woodhead
Pierce
Hyde
Ingram
White
Garcon
Wright
Cooper
John Brown
Clay
Reed
team i drafted using that:
1. (4) Adrian Peterson RB
2. (13) A.J. Green WR
3. (20) Julio Jones WR
4. (29) Doug Martin RB
5. (36) Randall Cobb WR
6. (45) Matt Ryan QB
7. (52) Jordan Cameron TE
8. (61) Shane Vereen RB
9. (68) Michael Crabtree WR
10. (77) Joique Bell RB
11. (84) Jay Cutler QB
12. (93) New York DEF
13. (100) Golden Tate WR
14. (109) Odell Beckham Jr. WR
15. (116) DeAndre Hopkins WR
16. (125) Pierre Thomas RB
17. (132) Mason Crosby K
team i drafted using that:
1. (4) Adrian Peterson RB
2. (13) A.J. Green WR
3. (20) Julio Jones WR
4. (29) Doug Martin RB
5. (36) Randall Cobb WR
6. (45) Matt Ryan QB
7. (52) Jordan Cameron TE
8. (61) Shane Vereen RB
9. (68) Michael Crabtree WR
10. (77) Joique Bell RB
11. (84) Jay Cutler QB
12. (93) New York DEF
13. (100) Golden Tate WR
14. (109) Odell Beckham Jr. WR
15. (116) DeAndre Hopkins WR
16. (125) Pierre Thomas RB
17. (132) Mason Crosby K
Nobody plays in 8 team leagues. Lol
I see less single backfields and way more split duties, not sure where you see more team with 1 main RB...
As for 3-4 WR sets, to me, its important to get the studs who don't get the diluted stats in those 3-4 WR sets. Demaryius Thomas plays in a 3-4 WR offense but is arguable the best WR in the NFL. The drop off is huge, and if every team has those medicore WR's, your team will be no different.
Just my take of course, but RB injuries are fantasy killers (or winners if you take advantage).
Who are the 6 RBs you'd take in the first and second rounds?
Obviously, McCoy, AP, Charles and Forte. Who else?
I'm surprised you wouldn't take Martin in the second.
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Lacy.
I'm surprised you wouldn't take Martin in the second.
I wouldn't touch Martin. Martin had a few good games as a rookie and a lot of bad games. Lovie rotates backs. I love Ball and Bernard this year. I understand the concern surrounding Ball. I don't get why people aren't higher on Bernard. What about Alfred Morris? This guy is very consistent and it sounds like he has been catching the balk well too.
Wait till the 5th to draft a rb? Fine. You better hit on those Wrs and TEs you drafted early on and you better hit on those Rbs you drafted late.
It's all about the players you draft. Some strategies might be better for you than others based on one's ability to identify talent at a specific position. I tend to suck ass when i take the QB early and then scramble for Rbs and Wrs...
2. McCoy
3. Forte
4. AP
5. Lynch
6. Lacy
7. Bernard
8. Bell
9. Foster
10.Murray
11.Ball
12.Ellington
13.Morris
14.Jennings
15.Tate
16.Martin
Still some questions regarding the Bills and how they will use their guys, but Spiller is up there somewhere. Then you have guys like Bush and Bell who will have good value as starters. Stacy, Gerhart, Mathews, Vereen, CJ1K, Gore.
I don't see any reaason to reach for a RB in this draft when QB's and WR's are much easier to predict and score more points.
Then there are starters
Lacy is the clear cut #5 overall to me, and would group him in the first round with those other 4 guys. I might even like him better than ADP this year considering their respective offenses and mileage on those tires.
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In comment 11819067 kmed said:
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Lacy.
I'm surprised you wouldn't take Martin in the second.
I wouldn't touch Martin. Martin had a few good games as a rookie and a lot of bad games. Lovie rotates backs. I love Ball and Bernard this year. I understand the concern surrounding Ball. I don't get why people aren't higher on Bernard. What about Alfred Morris? This guy is very consistent and it sounds like he has been catching the balk well too.
I was concerned about Martin until Sims went down. I'd be surprised if Sims sees any action next season and TB has flat out said that Martin is now their "bell cow". He's getting 20-25 touches a game with Rainey being used only as a change of pace guy. I would take him over any guy after the 6 that Kmed has listed. With McCown behind center and VJax and Evans paired together, he is going to have a much easier time running the ball. Plus their schedule isn't exactly tough against the run.
I'm worried about Bernard because he doesn't get goal-line touches and there's nothing to suggest that he will at any point this season. Regarding Ball, Peyton has been singing Hillman's praises all pre-season, just like he did with Moreno last year. For value, I'd take Hillman in the 10th or 11th before I took Ball in the second because the starter there will be the guy that best protects the QB and there is no indication that that guy is definitively Ball.
Alfred Morris I like in the 3rd over guys like Bernard and LeVeon Bell and right after Martin.
Lacy is the clear cut #5 overall to me, and would group him in the first round with those other 4 guys. I might even like him better than ADP this year considering their respective offenses and mileage on those tires.
I agree with everything except Lacy. I'm a little bearish on him. The Packers made it an emphasis to run the shit out of the ball with Rodgers out. I was impressed with what he was able to accomplish with no QB. However, with Rodgers back do they continue to force feed him the ball? I don't know. The biggest reason I am a little skeptical is because he dealt with foot issues in college and got a concussion last year. I feel like there is injury risk. Also, from my experience playing, coaching and watching football it always seems like once a player gets a concussion they are much more likely to get another one. The good news is that there has been ample time of rest from his last one.
If you annualize his season last year, he would have been the 6th ranked RB in my league. He may lose a few goalline carries, but I don't think it's going to effect him being a top 10 back just based on touches.
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In comment 11819069 TEPLimey said:
Quote:
In comment 11819067 kmed said:
Quote:
Lacy.
I'm surprised you wouldn't take Martin in the second.
I wouldn't touch Martin. Martin had a few good games as a rookie and a lot of bad games. Lovie rotates backs. I love Ball and Bernard this year. I understand the concern surrounding Ball. I don't get why people aren't higher on Bernard. What about Alfred Morris? This guy is very consistent and it sounds like he has been catching the balk well too.
I was concerned about Martin until Sims went down. I'd be surprised if Sims sees any action next season and TB has flat out said that Martin is now their "bell cow". He's getting 20-25 touches a game with Rainey being used only as a change of pace guy. I would take him over any guy after the 6 that Kmed has listed. With McCown behind center and VJax and Evans paired together, he is going to have a much easier time running the ball. Plus their schedule isn't exactly tough against the run.
I'm worried about Bernard because he doesn't get goal-line touches and there's nothing to suggest that he will at any point this season. Regarding Ball, Peyton has been singing Hillman's praises all pre-season, just like he did with Moreno last year. For value, I'd take Hillman in the 10th or 11th before I took Ball in the second because the starter there will be the guy that best protects the QB and there is no indication that that guy is definitively Ball.
Alfred Morris I like in the 3rd over guys like Bernard and LeVeon Bell and right after Martin.
I couldn't disagree with you more on Bernard and Ball. Bernard has and will continue to get goal line work. His coach said as much and still had like 8 TDs last year. As far as Ball goes, Fox has said he is the main guy and when he got injured Fox came out and said he has seen enough of Ball last year and this year that he is fine if he misses the rest of the preseason. On too of that, it speaks volumes that they didn't bring in another vet back when Moreno wasn't coming back. Hillman had a huge opportunity last year to be the main back and blew it. He blew it so bad that Moreno was the starter and Ball was the backup.
Quote:
going rb,wr,wr.
team i drafted using that:
1. (4) Adrian Peterson RB
2. (13) A.J. Green WR
3. (20) Julio Jones WR
4. (29) Doug Martin RB
5. (36) Randall Cobb WR
6. (45) Matt Ryan QB
7. (52) Jordan Cameron TE
8. (61) Shane Vereen RB
9. (68) Michael Crabtree WR
10. (77) Joique Bell RB
11. (84) Jay Cutler QB
12. (93) New York DEF
13. (100) Golden Tate WR
14. (109) Odell Beckham Jr. WR
15. (116) DeAndre Hopkins WR
16. (125) Pierre Thomas RB
17. (132) Mason Crosby K
Nobody plays in 8 team leagues. Lol
don't laugh at me.
I couldn't disagree with you more on Bernard and Ball. Bernard has and will continue to get goal line work. His coach said as much and still had like 8 TDs last year. As far as Ball goes, Fox has said he is the main guy and when he got injured Fox came out and said he has seen enough of Ball last year and this year that he is fine if he misses the rest of the preseason. On too of that, it speaks volumes that they didn't bring in another vet back when Moreno wasn't coming back. Hillman had a huge opportunity last year to be the main back and blew it. He blew it so bad that Moreno was the starter and Ball was the backup. [/quote]
From NFL Live (quotes from Peyton):
"Hillman is taking a much larger roll in the offense."
"Hillman has stepped up."
Now, if I'm looking at spending a second rounder, I'm quite hesitant to use it on a guy who didn't start last year, had some ball control issues, and has a perfectly capable backup in Hillman who (according to the most important possible source) "is taking a larger roll in the offense." No question in my mind Ball is going to get more touches this season, but is it going to be RBBC? Is Hillman going to eat into a significant number of Ball's carries? I think the answer to the first question is maybe and the second question, almost certainly. With that in mind, I'm not taking him with any of the top 30 picks when there are better alternatives (both at RB and other positions) out there.
Gio also has questions about him, but I think less so than Ball. Gio will see 8-12 TDs this season and will probably get 60-70% of the carries. He hasn't proven that he is a great runner yet (4.1 YPC) or that he will be getting goal-line work. There are a lot of question marks here.
Look, one or both of these guys could have a great season that justifies them being picked in the second round. On the other hand, it is just as likely they have a pretty good season on par with some players available in later (3-4) rounds. In either case, you have to ask yourself, why are you taking a guy with question marks with your second round pick when a known stud like Jordy Nelson is sitting on the board?
Bernard has proven to be valuable on the goal line. I don't get why you are discounting that. Yes, Hill will be mixed in but it isn't going to be 109% of the time. As a rookie in a limited role Bernard had 1200 yards and 8 TDs. He will be getting the ball early and often in that run first offense. He is a matchup nightmare.
Also like the fact that Decker is gone - he was a big red zone target. Sanders can get you down the field, but doesnt have the EZ presence that Decker had. Should create more TDs for the Denver RBs, no?
Have a great afternoon!
Have a great afternoon!
I thought this was happening for Bell, but it's becoming more and more apparent that Blount is getting a solid amount of carries and most of the goal line work.
If I knew this before my draft, I would have drafted Gio. Whatever.
Gio and Murray to me are the clear cut most talented and most ideal of the young and somewhat unknown RB group. LAcy is nice...but the mitigating circumstances scare me. The rest are solid but don't come close to Gio and Murray, in my eyes. And i'd probably take Gio over Murray based on a cleaner health history, although that's probably overstated a bit.
PLus Murray is a Cowboy so he's got that working against him. Guy is a legit talent and has the OL in front of him. If he plays he's putting up good numbers.
3 games
6 games
2 games
I guess the odds are slightly stacked in favor of Murray missing more time...but it's still pretty much luck of draw. Murray could just as easliy be due for a 5 year streak of good health.
Bernard has proven to be valuable on the goal line. I don't get why you are discounting that. Yes, Hill will be mixed in but it isn't going to be 109% of the time. As a rookie in a limited role Bernard had 1200 yards and 8 TDs. He will be getting the ball early and often in that run first offense. He is a matchup nightmare.
I remember hearing
Last year:
Ball: 119 rush (20 receptions)
Hillman: 55 rush (12 receptions)
Moreno: 242 rush (60 receptions)
Ball and Hillman are both going to see an increased workload, no question. But is Ball going to get 90% of Moreno's touches? 60%? 40%? The point is that we don't know the answer to that question. If its around 75%, you've got a bona fide #1 back with 300 touches. If its 50%, you've got a low-end #1 RB with 240 touches.
Fact is, the Broncos are going to trot out whomever Peyton is most comfortable. It could be Ball, or it could RBBC. You don't know any more than I do. Remember, the Broncos will be a pass-first team and you can't assume they let Moreno go because they want Ball to be the bell cow.
As I mentioned before, Gio is both the safe and more talented choice of the two, and I can't disagree with the fact that he should have a great season, but the question is whether he will see goal line touches and how Marvin Lewis will use him.
Again, though, with either pick, you're taking a risk on an unknown. Is it "wrong" to do so? Absolutely not. But (as I suspect KMed thinks) whiffing on a 2nd round pick can kill your season and sometimes its better to go with the safer, known commodity.
One optimistic, but plausible, outcome is Ball has the rushing season outlined above and adds 300 yards receiving with two touchdowns for a total of 194 points, good enough for the top ten last season and in line with his selection as the eighth running back overall.
A more likely scenario is he is unable to adequately protect Manning and sees his receiving points reduced by 26 points (200 yards and a touchdown), which would drop him to the 15th most valuable back, which is worthy of a third-round selection in mock drafts.
Granted, for every one of these articles, there is one touting Ball as a top 5 RB this season, but that's exactly my point. There is a nice potential payoff for taking a risk on Ball in early to mid 2nd round, but you are also taking a risk. No matter how we analyze the situation in Denver, the truth is that no one outside of Fox, Gase, and Peyton knows how Ball is going to be used (and even then, plans change). In my view, if I have an early second round pick, I'm using it on a known commodity, not a wildcard with a big upside.
Linky - ( New Window )
2. McCoy
3. Forte
4. AP
5. Lynch
6. Lacy
7. Bernard
8. Bell
9. Foster
10.Murray
11.Ball
12.Ellington
13.Morris
14.Jennings
15.Tate
16.Martin
Still some questions regarding the Bills and how they will use their guys, but Spiller is up there somewhere. Then you have guys like Bush and Bell who will have good value as starters. Stacy, Gerhart, Mathews, Vereen, CJ1K, Gore.
Then there are starters
What's the concern with Stacy? To me he is even with Ellington and would not surprise me in the slightest if he outperformed Foster this year considering how bad the Texans offense should be.
Also, I would take Gio over Murray easily. And not just because Murray is a Cowboy.
2) Marshall
3) Nelson
4) R. White
5) Spiller (This is what I was left with)
6) C. Johnson
7) T. Richardson
8) E. Sanders
9) S. Jackson
10) Sproles
11) Maclin
12) Dalton
13) A. Smith
14) Bills
15) S. Graham
Looking at this, I'm not going to wait until 5 to pick a RB in my real draft.
How early is to early for Graham? After AP, McCoy, Charles, Forte?
This.
You try no RB if McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte, probably Lynch and maybe Lacy are off the board when you pick in the 1st rd. If you can take one of those top 3-4 guys, you have to do it. Taking Jimmy Graham in the top 5 is too high. Too high for Calvin, too. The highest I'd take Peyton is probably 5.
0 RB also is much more suited to a PPR league, where the WR are scoring more. I wouldn't do 0 RB in a non-PPR.
There really isnt much of a equivalency for RB's and QB's that would be available after the 5th round or undrafted that would be able to produce for you early in the season. You can point to guys like Nick Foles, Bobby Rainey, Josh McCown - but those guys weren't providing any value until an injury incurred and towards the final parts of the season.
If you wait till the 6th round to get a QB or a RB you will likely be fucked. a better "extreme" strategy would be to take a QB and 4 RB's in the first 5 rounds, especially in non-ppr leagues.
There are always guys that can be picked up on the cheap that will produce at RB. You just have to work a little to find them and replace them when they lose their touches.