Have not seen a Nassib was NOT a wasted pick thread yet.

In comment 11823476 mrvax said:

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It's difficult but there probably are 10 very good starting QBs in the NFL at any one time.

It's real difficult - which is why so few teams can successfully do it.

In comment 11823480 baadbill said:

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It's real difficult - which is why so few teams can successfully do it.

In Reese we trust?

have moved onto successful seasons shortly after losing/changing QBs that have led them to championships.

If you are saying the measurment stick is just Superbowls then the list may be short as mentioned above. Not sure why Manning/Lick are there though.

But if you are saying just find a quality QB that can get them back to playoffs then the list should be much larger.

spelling problems abound as I type fast...

In comment 11823493 Jimmy Googs said:

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have moved onto successful seasons shortly after losing/changing QBs that have led them to championships. If you are saying the measurment stick is just Superbowls then the list may be short as mentioned above. Not sure why Manning/Lick are there though. But if you are saying just find a quality QB that can get them back to playoffs then the list should be much larger.

The issue isn't moving TO a Championship after changing QB. Rather, the issue is moving FROM a Championship winning QB. It takes time.

Here's my test. Forget Championships. Instead, just look at teams that have had a QB for 7 straight years. How long was it before that team had another QB for 7 straight years? Defining it this way, we're just looking at a "franchise QB" defined as a starter for 7 straight years. And then - once you have one, how long does it take to replace him with another?

I'm going to say it takes at least 10 years and probably an average of 15-20 years.

We should all hope that Eli is about to bounce back in a big way. Regardless, having a backup waiting in the wings will add some comfort if we find that Eli is truly in decline.

In comment 11823514 baadbill said:

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In comment 11823493 Jimmy Googs said: Quote: have moved onto successful seasons shortly after losing/changing QBs that have led them to championships. If you are saying the measurment stick is just Superbowls then the list may be short as mentioned above. Not sure why Manning/Lick are there though. But if you are saying just find a quality QB that can get them back to playoffs then the list should be much larger. The issue isn't moving TO a Championship after changing QB. Rather, the issue is moving FROM a Championship winning QB. It takes time. Here's my test. Forget Championships. Instead, just look at teams that have had a QB for 7 straight years. How long was it before that team had another QB for 7 straight years? Defining it this way, we're just looking at a "franchise QB" defined as a starter for 7 straight years. And then - once you have one, how long does it take to replace him with another? I'm going to say it takes at least 10 years and probably an average of 15-20 years.

It probably takes time for one of two reasons...1) the QB in house doesn't just die overnight, he dies a slow death so no change is happening quickly and an early draft pick from an awful season is not yet available, and 2) franchises don't cut bait soon enough...they remember the seasons gone by and think that magic can be rekindled.

QBs for seven straight years are few and far between anyway so the idea that is the measurement stick for how a franchise wins the SB or not is one of many factors.

You could be right about the potential OL picks turning into turds.

But if Nassib plays some games this season because Eli is hurt due to incompetent OL play, all the team has succeeded in doing is shooting itself in the foot. With a .45 I might add, and that makes a big hole.

In comment 11823770 Red Dog said:

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You could be right about the potential OL picks turning into turds. But if Nassib plays some games this season because Eli is hurt due to incompetent OL play, all the team has succeeded in doing is shooting itself in the foot. With a .45 I might add, and that makes a big hole.

Agreed.

gambler's fallacy. For the most part there's nothing stopping teams from drafting a top QB after one was drafted before (I guess it makes it harder to get a high first rounder because the team will probably be good, but most QBs don't come from that high up anyway). The reason great QBs don't often happen back to back is because it's because it's rare that you get a great QB to begin with so just drafting two great QBs is tough, but say there are 4 QBs in 20 years after the great QB (Eli in this case), the chances of drafting a Great-Not Great- Not Great-Not Great QB are exactly the same as drafting a Not Great-Not Great-Not Great-Great QB.

Now, everyone is sucking him off. Let's be realistic. He is playing well, but lets not anoint him the next starter yet. He is doing in this in the preseason and most of it has not been against the number one defense.

In comment 11823856 BestFeature said:

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gambler's fallacy. For the most part there's nothing stopping teams from drafting a top QB after one was drafted before (I guess it makes it harder to get a high first rounder because the team will probably be good, but most QBs don't come from that high up anyway). The reason great QBs don't often happen back to back is because it's because it's rare that you get a great QB to begin with so just drafting two great QBs is tough, but say there are 4 QBs in 20 years after the great QB (Eli in this case), the chances of drafting a Great-Not Great- Not Great-Not Great QB are exactly the same as drafting a Not Great-Not Great-Not Great-Great QB.

I agree with your analysis. It simply verifies mine and my point. The odds are very good that it is going to take time to replace Manning simply because it isn't easy to draft a great QB, no less to do it back to back.

But these preseason I told you so threads are juvenile at best.