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NFT: Fantasy Discussion 8/27

RD in CT : 8/27/2014 1:44 pm
Wanted to start up a discussion today because I've been offered a trade and I'm torn. 12 team, .5 PPR league (keepers)

QB: Brees
RB1: L. Bell
RB2: Rashad Jennings
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Welker
Flex: Toby Gerhart

Bench: Bishop Sankey, Deandre Hopkins, Brian Hartline, Doug Baldwin, Ebron

I was offered my choice of Gerhart for either Michael Floyd or Emmanuel Sanders. At this point I'm pretty set on making the move b/c Welker's concussion issue is starting to spook me. Anyone think I should stay with Gerhart? I'm leaning towards moving on Floyd
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Opinions on Trade  
Damon : 8/27/2014 4:05 pm : link
Team 1 Gets
Cam Newton
Jamal Charles
Ahmad Bradshaw

Team 2 Gets
Montee Ball
Doug Martin
Andy Dalton
Eric Ebron

PPR League..
RE: I wouldn't want either Vereen or Jennings as my #1  
UConn4523 : 8/27/2014 4:09 pm : link
In comment 11828028 YAJ2112 said:
Quote:
much prefer them to be a 2 or a Flex


I disagree. In a PPR I want 2 stud WR's then RB's after that. Can't have the best players at every position, so realistically, Vereen is a fine RB1 in a PPR league as long as your WR's are great.
Id take Vereen and Jennings as my #1  
kmed : 8/27/2014 4:11 pm : link
if my WR's are Thomas, Brown and Cruz. You can't look at it in a bubble like that. It's about having the best players, not having balance. Both Vereen and Jennings are starting caliber players and that's all that matters(assuming you drafted well elsewhere).
they aren't definites to be in the top 12 RBs  
YAJ2112 : 8/27/2014 4:15 pm : link
so they aren't true #1s. If the draft falls that way, then yeah I'd take them and slot them in my RB1 slot - but that doesn't make them true RB1s, it just makes them the best RB on my team.

I'm not saying they suck, I have those guys on a couple of my teams as 1s/2s and am fine with it. Doesn't mean I wouldn't feel better if I had a better option as my #1.
Been working on this trade since the draft  
CruzShip52 : 8/27/2014 4:15 pm : link
PPR league, I either just lost my league or won it running away depending on gronk

Traded
Jordan Cameron
Jordy Nelson (OUCH)

For
Colston
Cruz
Gronk

My team

Stafford
Forte
Vereen
Cruz
Wayne
Kendall wright
Gronk
Bush (flex)

Bench
Ryan matthews
colston
hartline
bowe
shorts

now time to go out and find me a backup TE

Good or bad?
I love it,  
kmed : 8/27/2014 4:24 pm : link
but I'm also higher on Cruz than most. I think Cruz is every bit as good as Nelson and Gronk should be a big upgrade over Cameron(not without risk of course).
BTW...  
Damon : 8/27/2014 4:25 pm : link
it's a 14 team league...
thanks kmed  
CruzShip52 : 8/27/2014 4:27 pm : link
yeah im high on cruz this year too (giants homer aside) im very high on him in this offense and low on jordy with cobb back he will see less targets and lacy will dominate the run game. I think jordy > cruz but gronk >>>>>> cameron gronk can single handily win me a league
If you annualize his stats last year  
kmed : 8/27/2014 4:29 pm : link
to make up for the few games he missed, he was still a very valuable WR and that's in a season where everything went wrong. I expect him to be slightly better this year at a minimum, but he should get a significant amount of catches this year.
RE: Id take Vereen and Jennings as my #1  
Mark C : 8/27/2014 5:29 pm : link
In comment 11828059 kmed said:
[quote] if my WR's are Thomas, Brown and Cruz. You can't look at it in a bubble like that. It's about having the best players, not having balance. Both Vereen and Jennings are starting caliber players and that's all that matters(assuming you drafted well elsewhere). [/quote

My WRs are Demarius Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Cordarelle Patterson and Michael Crabtree. It's a 2 WR, 2 Flex PPR league. I waited on RB because I just wasn't impressed with any of them after Ball, and I had the 8th pick in a ten team league.
Who has some sleepers for me?  
gmen1234 : 8/27/2014 6:10 pm : link
.
Please rank the RBs  
dep026 : 8/27/2014 6:21 pm : link
in order of preference. .25 PPR.

McCoy, AP, Charles.
ESPN has it as AP Charles then Mccoy  
gmen1234 : 8/27/2014 6:22 pm : link
.
RE: Please rank the RBs  
drkenneth : 8/27/2014 7:12 pm : link
In comment 11828258 dep026 said:
Quote:
in order of preference. .25 PPR.

McCoy, AP, Charles.


Charles, McCoy, AP.....Although AP went #1 in my league.
Just drafted. 12 team .5 PPR, had the 3rd pick  
Jon in NYC : 8/27/2014 9:49 pm : link
QB: Newton, Kaepernick
RB: Peterson, Ball, Rice, Greene
WR: Nelson, Cruz, Crabtree, Wayne, Wheaton
TE: Randolph

I took Cruz over Andre Johnson, which is questionable, but other than that I think I killed it. any thoughts?
Bosh..  
arcarsenal : 8/27/2014 9:55 pm : link
I think you'll be starting Kaepernick most of the year. I don't see Newton being a great fantasy QB this year.. but other than that, love your RB's and WR's. For 12 team that's a really good team.
RE: Bosh..  
Jon in NYC : 8/27/2014 9:59 pm : link
In comment 11828477 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
I think you'll be starting Kaepernick most of the year. I don't see Newton being a great fantasy QB this year.. but other than that, love your RB's and WR's. For 12 team that's a really good team.


Chose CK over Russell Wilson, which killed me from a morals perspective, but I think Kaep is in for a big year with a full year of Crabtree.

Curious why you're anti Cam though.
Innjuries  
dep026 : 8/27/2014 10:00 pm : link
plus shitty WRs.
I don't like his WR's at all.  
arcarsenal : 8/27/2014 10:04 pm : link
He's going into the year with a broken rib.. I just think that offense is going to struggle a bit this season. I definitely think Kap will be a better fantasy QB.

I could be wrong but we'll see.
My 12 man team  
dep026 : 8/27/2014 10:05 pm : link
had to keep 4: McCoy, Charles, Harvin Patterson. I took over some guys team.

My team:

QBs: Wilson, Eli
RBs: McCoy, Charles, Mathews, Ingram, White, Pierce
WRs: Harvin, Patterson, K. Wright, T. Williams
TEs: Fleener, Cook
K: Gould
D: Rams, Texans

Obviously, my RBs are stacked to the max. Most WRs were kept, so I had to scramble. I think I got an ok team, good enough to compete, not good enough to win. Looking to trade Mathews for a WR upgrade.
wr arent terrible  
CruzShip52 : 8/27/2014 10:08 pm : link
id upgrade at TE and QB

amazing RB and not bad WR

flip matthews
Well  
Jon in NYC : 8/28/2014 1:35 am : link
it's not like Cam has had good WRs during his first three years, and he's still managed to be a top 4 fantasy QB every single year.
I like Cam, think he and Kelvin Benjamin will put up numbers  
knicks3031 : 8/28/2014 6:38 am : link
I just drafted last night. 12 team, .5 ppr, picked 10th

QB: Luck, McCown
RB: Gio Bernard, Tate, MJD, Khiry Robinson
WR: Dez, Allen, VJax, Cooks, Hunter
TE: Reed, Pitta
Is James White  
UConn4523 : 8/28/2014 7:00 am : link
more valuable than McCluster? I don't believe Ridley will get cut but if he does having White can be huge...
My draft is tnt,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 7:03 am : link
I've been doing some mocks and with the 6th pick I'm finding that if I take a wr(calvin or thomas), i end up going wr in the next 2 rounds because there are guys too good to pass up. There just aren't many RB's that I love at the top of this draft. They all have a lot of risk as opposed to the top wr's which are pretty much guaranteed to produce.
The real value seems to be the wr's available in rd  
kmed : 8/28/2014 7:03 am : link
3.
I should say,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 7:06 am : link
the real value is the wr's in rd's 3 and 4.
My draft was very sporadic after 25 picks or so  
UConn4523 : 8/28/2014 7:09 am : link
no WRs taken between 29 and 38. Basically, don't trust mocks. I'd take WRs early and often. There will be many RBs getting work this year.
Uconn,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 7:12 am : link
that's funny. I am doing a mock right now and I took Graham at 6 and i hate my wr's. There was a huge run of em.

I think my mind is made up, I'm taking demarius thomas at 6 if my top 4 backs are off the board. Am I nuts for taking Thomas over Calvin??
Not nuts  
UConn4523 : 8/28/2014 7:15 am : link
but it will feel weird.
Advice on an RB on waivers right now?  
UConn4523 : 8/28/2014 7:16 am : link
James White, Cunningham, Rainey, Polk..

Trying to land a gem, basically anyone with more value than mccluster.
It feels weird just thinking about it,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 7:17 am : link
but Thomas has a 2 year history now of 90 catches 1500 yards and 10+ TD's and with no decker, I think he gets more opps.

Whereas Calvin now has a lot of weapons around him that will get looks. Don't get me wrong, still love Calvin, but I just love Thomas a little more.....I think.
RE: I should say,  
Jon in NYC : 8/28/2014 7:19 am : link
In comment 11828642 kmed said:
Quote:
the real value is the wr's in rd's 3 and 4.


I agree. I went RB, RB, WR, WR, and was very happy with my results.
I'd be curious to see what the pats do at rb.  
kmed : 8/28/2014 7:21 am : link
They are so damn unpredictable. I'd be really surprised if Cunningham had a big enough role to make him relevant. Even if he did, he's going to be in an offense that teams should be able to key on the run. I guess the same would apply to rainey. Polk will have to leap from a bit to be relevant.

So I guess my answer would be White if you are looking for a guy to be fantasy relevant without injury.
Dude,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 7:22 am : link
getting Nelson and Cruz in rds 3+4 is incredible value. The RB's in that range are hit or miss.
That was Benny Cunningham  
UConn4523 : 8/28/2014 7:27 am : link
But I guess the same theory applies with a Stacy injury
Kmed  
CruzShip52 : 8/28/2014 7:54 am : link
Do your own thing but if you take Thomas and Calvin outperforms him you will kick yourself all year. I'd go with the safe pick and get Calvin but that's just me
Thomas is just as safe  
UConn4523 : 8/28/2014 8:09 am : link
Calvin has a bit more upside but slight health concerns. I'd lean 60/40 for Calvin.
I wouldn't kick myself if Calvin ended up higher than  
kmed : 8/28/2014 8:34 am : link
Thomas because I fully expect Thomas to be top 3. Can't complain if I ended up with a guy that's top 3. I just really like Thomas to have one of those years.

I just feel like Detroit has a lot of weapons this year(Calvin, Tate, Ebron, Pettigrew, Bush, Bell) that they aren't just going to force it to Calvin like in years past.

Another reason is that I found out the guy at 10 really wants a QB/WR combo and I'm hoping one of the top 3 QB's fall in rd 2. If D Thomas and Peyton are there for him at 10, that hurts my chances of getting a QB. Maybe he passes on a QB if Peyton/Thomas isn't there and Graham/Brees isn't there.

I don't know, maybe I'm overthinking it, I still have like 8 hours to change my mind.
I think I'm def overthinking it,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 8:37 am : link
Calvin has been a top fantasy WR for 10 years now.
Is it nuts to think Dez might end up the with most points for WR?  
knicks3031 : 8/28/2014 11:06 am : link
That defense is awful and they're going to be throwing a lot. I think he has a huge year
That's the trend  
pjcas18 : 8/28/2014 11:09 am : link
everyone targeting Dez as the #1 WR.

And people talk risks with guys like Montee ball, but target Dez.

That's some convenient logic there.

for 1 Dez has been injured, for 2, he's been suspended, for 3 he's an emotional basket case.

he's got a track record, but there are other concerns.

I like Dez - top 3 or 4 WR, but in no way do I think his results are any more sure a bet than Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, demaryius Thomas, or the other WR's and his risks are probably just as risky as Montee Ball from an overall risk standpoint.

Doesn't he still need Jerry Jones baby-sitter to go with him when he goes out at night?
Pjcas, when was Dez suspended?  
knicks3031 : 8/28/2014 11:15 am : link
I don't remember that. I agree with your logic too, there's risk with a lot of players. I took Dez at 10 yesterday (Calvin and Demaryius were both gone) and I was pretty happy with him there. I just personally think he has a monster year
I have Dez as my 3rd WR,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 11:17 am : link
but I do like him to continue to ascend. I'm not sure I understand the comparison to Ball however. Dez was the 7th ranked WR last year, the 4th ranked WR in 2012 and for the 2nd year in a row, he had 90+ catches, 1200+ yards and 12+ TD's. Oh yeah, he's missed a grand total of 0 games in the last 2 seasons.
He wasn't suspended?  
pjcas18 : 8/28/2014 11:22 am : link
my bad, he should have been.

the only comparison to Ball was in terms of risk.

You (kmed) outlined several factors related to Ball that were a risk with him and reason you wouldn't take him early.

I was just highlighting some reasons not to take Dez over the other elites - Thomas, Marshall, Calvin Johnson, - for example.

In the end, I think Ball has a good season, mainly because he's a good running back in a good offense and will get a lot of opportunity.
Yeah but none of your risks were real.  
kmed : 8/28/2014 11:23 am : link
Dez hasn't been suspended. He's missed 0 games in the past 2 years and him being a hothead, immature idiot hasn't stopped him from being the 7th and 4th ranked WR's in teh last 2 seasons.
I didn't  
pjcas18 : 8/28/2014 11:36 am : link
say he's missed games, I said he's been injured and if you din't consider injuries a risk, ok, your call.

Your risks with Ball included he only had 120 carries.

He averaged 330+ his final two years of college.

Is that really a risk he only had 120 carries as a rookie?

No more than Dez's injury risk.





IMO,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 11:37 am : link
yes it's a risk because college and the NFL are two different games in my eyes.
I'd agree perhaps  
pjcas18 : 8/28/2014 11:45 am : link
if he didn't average 4.7 ypc on those 120 carries as a rookie.

that removed the doubt for me.

To me,  
kmed : 8/28/2014 11:48 am : link
it doesn't remove any doubt that he can handle a full workload. It tells me that he will probably have success if he has a full workload, but that's not really my concern. For me, my strategy has always been to try and limit the risk early in drafts. It's hurt me by missing out on some really good players in the past, but overall it's helped me much more because my top players(assuming health) will always be top players.
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