NFT: Fantasy Discussion 8/27

Do your own thing but if you take Thomas and Calvin outperforms him you will kick yourself all year. I'd go with the safe pick and get Calvin but that's just me

Calvin has a bit more upside but slight health concerns. I'd lean 60/40 for Calvin.

Thomas because I fully expect Thomas to be top 3. Can't complain if I ended up with a guy that's top 3. I just really like Thomas to have one of those years.

I just feel like Detroit has a lot of weapons this year(Calvin, Tate, Ebron, Pettigrew, Bush, Bell) that they aren't just going to force it to Calvin like in years past.

Another reason is that I found out the guy at 10 really wants a QB/WR combo and I'm hoping one of the top 3 QB's fall in rd 2. If D Thomas and Peyton are there for him at 10, that hurts my chances of getting a QB. Maybe he passes on a QB if Peyton/Thomas isn't there and Graham/Brees isn't there.

I don't know, maybe I'm overthinking it, I still have like 8 hours to change my mind.

Calvin has been a top fantasy WR for 10 years now.

That defense is awful and they're going to be throwing a lot. I think he has a huge year

everyone targeting Dez as the #1 WR.

And people talk risks with guys like Montee ball, but target Dez.

That's some convenient logic there.

for 1 Dez has been injured, for 2, he's been suspended, for 3 he's an emotional basket case.

he's got a track record, but there are other concerns.

I like Dez - top 3 or 4 WR, but in no way do I think his results are any more sure a bet than Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, demaryius Thomas, or the other WR's and his risks are probably just as risky as Montee Ball from an overall risk standpoint.

Doesn't he still need Jerry Jones baby-sitter to go with him when he goes out at night?

I don't remember that. I agree with your logic too, there's risk with a lot of players. I took Dez at 10 yesterday (Calvin and Demaryius were both gone) and I was pretty happy with him there. I just personally think he has a monster year

but I do like him to continue to ascend. I'm not sure I understand the comparison to Ball however. Dez was the 7th ranked WR last year, the 4th ranked WR in 2012 and for the 2nd year in a row, he had 90+ catches, 1200+ yards and 12+ TD's. Oh yeah, he's missed a grand total of 0 games in the last 2 seasons.

my bad, he should have been.

the only comparison to Ball was in terms of risk.

You (kmed) outlined several factors related to Ball that were a risk with him and reason you wouldn't take him early.

I was just highlighting some reasons not to take Dez over the other elites - Thomas, Marshall, Calvin Johnson, - for example.

In the end, I think Ball has a good season, mainly because he's a good running back in a good offense and will get a lot of opportunity.

Dez hasn't been suspended. He's missed 0 games in the past 2 years and him being a hothead, immature idiot hasn't stopped him from being the 7th and 4th ranked WR's in teh last 2 seasons.

say he's missed games, I said he's been injured and if you din't consider injuries a risk, ok, your call.

Your risks with Ball included he only had 120 carries.

He averaged 330+ his final two years of college.

Is that really a risk he only had 120 carries as a rookie?

No more than Dez's injury risk.

yes it's a risk because college and the NFL are two different games in my eyes.

if he didn't average 4.7 ypc on those 120 carries as a rookie.

that removed the doubt for me.

it doesn't remove any doubt that he can handle a full workload. It tells me that he will probably have success if he has a full workload, but that's not really my concern. For me, my strategy has always been to try and limit the risk early in drafts. It's hurt me by missing out on some really good players in the past, but overall it's helped me much more because my top players(assuming health) will always be top players.