NFT: Fantasy Football 8-28

from me.

I know you're not on the Lacy bandwagon, but what about Green or Lacy.

Green for me. Give me the sure thing every time. Lots of question marks around the 2nd tier backs and almost none around the top tier WR's(Thomas, Calvin, Dez, Green)

Green over Ball, but not Lacy.

but I also have a strong dislike of Green, for no real reason. I don't know if it's the Dalton factor or not, but I always have him lower than everyone else and always find a reason not to take him.

65-1057-7
97-1350-11
98-1426-11

He's about as sure a thing as you will find.

I'd rank it as Lacy, Green then Ball

I'm in a tough spot. I kept Jordan Cameron and Aaron Rodgers, but have the 4th pick in my draft. Best available are AP, Forte, Graham & Brees. If I hadn't kept a TE & QB, I'd have gone Graham or Brees after the first 3 go off the board. I'm left choosing between Lacy, Green and Ball.

Per someones (kmed?) request, here are some interesting notes on how the draft unfolded that could be of use to people drafting soon:

1. Running Backs - First 6 picks were RB in this order: AP, Mccoy, Charles, Forte, Lacy, Lynch.

5 more backs when in the next 9 picks. Leveon (8), Murray (11), Ball (12), Stacy (13), Foster (15).

Round 3 saw Tate, Martin, Morris, Spiller, Bernard come off the board in that order.

2. 3 QBs in first 2 rounds: Peyton (9), Rodgers (16), Brees (18). The usual suspects went in rounds 4-6. There was a TON of QB value late. If anything, I'd wait as long as possible on a QB. Guys like Cutler and Rivers were there at the end of the draft.

3. Seahawks were the first defense off the board in the 5th round.

4. WR is STACKED this year. There was a great wide receiver that I wanted to take in each of the first 7 rounds or so. If I learned anything it was to take the RB over the WR if there is one that you want. RBs dont fall.

5. Interesting picks and Steals of the draft, IMO: Calvin (10), Gronk (37), Floyd (54), Roddy White (55), Rice (68), Rudolph (78), MJD (80), Cameron (84), Rivers (87), Lamar Miller (90), Brady (97), Benjamin (104), Hopkins (106), Hunter (107), Pierce (110), Cutler (128), Manziel (132)

Hope this is helpful. Let me know if you have any questions.

3.

is without a doubt top 10 overall player.

But when comparing him with Lacy, I think Lacy has the potential to nudge himself into that elite group of RB's make the core 4 and core 5 with him, McCoy, Charles, Forte, and AP.

You take one of them over a WR.

He's on a great offense with a favorable schedule. other than opening Thurs might in Seattle.

How do you view Brees vs Rodgers? Not really sure why, but I really want Brees over Rodgers.

I lean towards the sure thing. Lacy has potential. Ball has potential. Green is as close to a guarantee that you'll find which is why I have him ranked higher. That's just how I roll, it's just my personal strategy.

PPR as well -

QB - P.Manning
QB - A.Luck
RB - A.Ellington
RB - R.Jennings
WR - A.Brown
WR - J.Nelson
WR - M.Crabtree
FLEX - J.Bell
TE - K.Rudolph
K - A.Henery
D - Bills
BN - R.Tannehill
BN - P.Thomas
BN - K.Benjamin
BN - L.Miller
BN - A.Williams
BN - D.Hopkins
BN - H.Miller

I'm guessing my team is stacked. I only really have to concern myself w/ who my flex is each week.

picked 4th. Yes, Peyton went 4th in a 2 QB league.

I also really hope my draft unfolds exactly like that. Seems like the top 5 RB's are going 1-5 in almost every draft that people post. I hope people start reaching for the next two tiers in the next two rounds because it's going to leave some studly WR's available.

AJ is a monster.

I was a big Julio over AJ guy their rookie season because I felt like Julio would see a lot of single coverage with Roddy on the other side and that his QB sitch was much better (at the time, Dalton was a complete unknown) and I just didn't see how AJ was going to be a stud but he was and he is.

Calvin and Demariyus are basically the only 2 WR's I am taking ahead of AJ. I like AJ slightly more than Dez.

Only reason why I didn't was because of having a new OC and Dallas having an absolutely dreadful defense. Romo is forced to sling it 24/7.

AJ Green is a rock though. I love him so much as a player. Easiest guy to root for.

Brees and Rodgers are close but I think I agree Brees gets the nod, mostly b/c I think the Pats will feed Lacy a ton this year. Bottom line is that they always go earlier than I would take them so I haven't given it a ton of thought.

There were studly WRs available everywhere. I felt I stole Demaryius at 14 and I had Green, Bryant (fell to 20!), Jones, Marshall.

Based on how things fell, I really like the first 5 picks. I'd be happy with taking someone like Forte and then hoping to get Dez round 2 and then Jordy in round 3.

...

Thomas at 14 is insane as is those others at 20. I do think the top 3 QB's are good value in the 2nd round though. Even though there are other great values very late.

In comment 11829361 kmed said:

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I lean towards the sure thing. Lacy has potential. Ball has potential. Green is as close to a guarantee that you'll find which is why I have him ranked higher. That's just how I roll, it's just my personal strategy.

Lacy's potential vs. Ball's potential are different things.

as a rookie Lacy had 1200 yards and 11 TD's. last year. with another 35 catches for over 250 yards.

that's no longer potential.

Ball agree, which is why I say Green over Ball - in fact that's a no-brainer.

i get a late first round pick in my 12 team league but knowing my luck i will draw one of the top 5 picks and be forced to go with 1 of the RBs...

In my 12 team everyone is RB happy except for maybe 2 players other than me who think outside of RB in the first 2 rounds...if i get 8-10 i will be very happy...

any combination of Dez, Thomas and Green with another top WR and i am going to be a very happy man...

7 of Lacy's 11 TD's came in games that Rodgers did not play. He had ONE 100 yard rushing game when Rodgers played. 21 of his 35 catches came in the 8 games Rodgers was out.

21 of his 35 catches came in the 7 games rodgers was out.

So in Rodgers 9 games, Lacy had one 100 yard rushing game, 4 td's and 14 catches.

than Ball but not more than Calvin, Dez or AJ...if those 3 are off the board and Lacy is there i would go Lacy...

In comment 11829403 kmed said:

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7 of Lacy's 11 TD's came in games that Rodgers did not play. He had ONE 100 yard rushing game when Rodgers played. 21 of his 35 catches came in the 8 games Rodgers was out.

So when Scott Tolzien is the Qb and the defense put 8 men in the box daring the team to run, and they do successfully, that's no longer potential.

that's reliable talent.

With Rodgers they still tried to force things through the air because that has worked in the past, I don't expect them to do that now that they've learned they don't have to.

but I can argue that Rodgers and GB like to throw the ball a lot and they like to throw the ball down the field. It also means less goalline carries for Lacy.

change their offensive philosophy, then I'd agree with you that Lacy is a worthy 1st round pick and probably close to AJ Green. I don't believe that will be the case though.

In comment 11829444 kmed said:

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but I can argue that Rodgers and GB like to throw the ball a lot and they like to throw the ball down the field. It also means less goalline carries for Lacy.

Kuhn getting goal line carries would worry more than Rodgers and the offense. But those things work themselves out.

In comment 11829445 kmed said:

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change their offensive philosophy, then I'd agree with you that Lacy is a worthy 1st round pick and probably close to AJ Green. I don't believe that will be the case though.

Not completely, but a little change I think, you don't draft Eddie Lacy in the 2nd round to sit him on the bench, you draft him to use him. Plus Rodgers takes a beating. I think they'd like to run more.

Its an argument of where do you take him? a lot of people will take him 5 behind the top 4 RBs...

I take him after Calvin, Demaryius and Dez...

its all based on your preference and strategy...i dont think anyone is argueing his talent...

In 2013 the Packers were 5th in rushing TD's with 17 total.
In 2012 the Packers were 26th in rushing TD's with 9.
In 2011 the Packers were 18th in rushing TD's with 12.
In 2010 the Packers were 20th with 11.

They like to throw the ball deep and they hit a lot of HR's throwing the ball.

In comment 11829471 nygiants16 said:

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Its an argument of where do you take him? a lot of people will take him 5 behind the top 4 RBs... I take him after Calvin, Demaryius and Dez... its all based on your preference and strategy...i dont think anyone is argueing his talent...

Agree, I said I'd take him ahead of Green, Kmed wouldn't.

I'm educating him.

In comment 11829483 kmed said:

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In 2013 the Packers were 5th in rushing TD's with 17 total. In 2012 the Packers were 26th in rushing TD's with 9. In 2011 the Packers were 18th in rushing TD's with 12. In 2010 the Packers were 20th with 11. They like to throw the ball deep and they hit a lot of HR's throwing the ball.

Two things were unique about 2013, one Rodgers was injured, and two they had their best RB since Ahman Green.

So I think the jury is out as to how much they run.

as the reason, not that they felt like they had to feed Lacy. Of course with just 4 TD's in the 9 Rodgers games, I'd say the stats lean towards my line of thinking.

Lacy and Green are very close in value but I think I'd take AJ.

It's actually hard for me to envision taking Lacy because I don't think I feel confident enough about him in the spots where he's generally being drafted.

I wouldn't take him in the top 5 and if, say... McCoy, Charles, AP, Forte and Lynch (or another RB) go top 5 and I am picking 6th-10th, I am looking to take an elite, top tier guy at a different position.. so I'm looking for Peyton, Calvin, Demaryius or maybe Graham.

If I come back and Lacy is still there in the early/mid 2nd, I gladly take him there. But he wouldn't be.

this whole conversation is exactly my point. There are all these questions about Lacy. Did they run more because Rodgers was out or because Lacy is so good? Did they ahve more rushing td's than ever before because of Lacy or beacsue they changed their offense? These are all ???'s that the top tier WR's don't have which is why I will lean towards teh WR's.

played 8 games. so double the total for Lacy to 8 TD's and he's top 10 for TD's - as a rookie.

One less rushing TD than Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy.

Not so sure you're helping yourself here.

is that you can't point your finger as to why his production fluctuated, but an educated guess would be that Rodgers was no longer passing downfield at a high rate, like he will be doing this year.

I'm taking Green over Lacy as well, especially in a PPR. The difference in catches, say 100 for Green and 40 (generous) for Lacy is 60 points in a PPR and 30 in a .5 PPR. Add in the likelihood of Green having more total TD's and its a no brainer as they will probably have the same total yards.

In comment 11829524 UConn4523 said:

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is that you can't point your finger as to why his production fluctuated, but an educated guess would be that Rodgers was no longer passing downfield at a high rate, like he will be doing this year. I'm taking Green over Lacy as well, especially in a PPR. The difference in catches, say 100 for Green and 40 (generous) for Lacy is 60 points in a PPR and 30 in a .5 PPR. Add in the likelihood of Green having more total TD's and its a no brainer as they will probably have the same total yards.

this was non-ppr

now starter in Miami or is it Lamar Miller (they talked up Miller as McCoy-esque)

Can't get a read on this situation

as for Lacy, non-PPR certainly makes it closer. I'd still rather the stud WR. I get more sour on RB's as the years go on.

In comment 11829534 UConn4523 said:

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as for Lacy, non-PPR certainly makes it closer. I'd still rather the stud WR. I get more sour on RB's as the years go on.

I'm not implying it's a landslide. And yes, I do feel like there is some projection with Lacy, but I also feel like it's warranted.

Neck and neck but I put Lacy in that core 4 RB group who you draft before WR's.

I would not be the least bit surprised to see Lacy lead the league in rushing this year. In fact I half expect it.

its a flip between Aj and Lacy especially in non-ppr but i can not agree with taking him ahead of Calvin, Thomas and Dez...If i am sitting at 5 and the core 4 RBs are gone i am going Calvin and not thinking twice...

I would be very surprised if Lacy led the league in rushing this year.

In comment 11829549 nygiants16 said:

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its a flip between Aj and Lacy especially in non-ppr but i can not agree with taking him ahead of Calvin, Thomas and Dez...If i am sitting at 5 and the core 4 RBs are gone i am going Calvin and not thinking twice...

yes, to clarify this year (I worded my post poorly) - it's the core 4 then the other elite WR's (johnson, bryant, thomas), I'm saying next year (assuming status quo otherwise) he's going to make it a core 5.

In comment 11829554 arcarsenal said:

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I would be very surprised if Lacy led the league in rushing this year.

Bovado has him 4th at 10:1 behind only McCoy, Charles, and Peterson - all three of those guys have a lot of miles on their tires the past few years.

Lacy doesn't sniff the lead league in rushing yards. He'd need 3 or 4 guys to get injured, probably closer to 5 or 6 guys.

I'd put my money on Charles if he plays all 16 games.

doesn't give more value than McCoy, Charles, AP, or Forte. I think people forget Forte over 1900 yards last year. At 75% that's till likely more yards than Lacy sees this year.

QB's Newton, Kap
RB Foster, Bell Pitt, Ellington, Vereen
WR CJ, Dez, E Sanders, Kendall Wright
TE Pitna
D San Fran
K Gould