I'm sure they'd rather fight the war in Ukraine than on their own soil.
There wouldn't be a war on Polish soil under almost any circumstances. Putin's not crazy, he isn't going to attack a NATO member state. Ukraine isn't protected by hardwired treaty obligations, but Poland is.
I don't know much at all about the Ukrainian military
asses off as they grow their economy and spend nothing in these global conflicts while we go in debt with money borrowed from China to protect Ukraine. Let France Germany England do the heavy lifting on this one
RE: I don't know much at all about the Ukrainian military
asses off as they grow their economy and spend nothing in these global conflicts while we go in debt with money borrowed from China to protect Ukraine. Let France Germany England do the heavy lifting on this one
It really has to be Europe. They're the ones who buy Russian Oil. They're the ones who can best apply economic pressure on Russia.
Do they have the capability to hold off a Russian invasion for any length of time?
I haven't really looked at the Ukrainian military's overall end strength and capabilities, but I doubt they can hold off a full on Russian invasion for too long.
However, I doubt that Russia is even willing to conduct such an invasion. This may look more reminiscent of the Russo-Georgian War of 2008. In which the Ukrainians can probably hold their own until some kind of a concession will be made by the international community to end the conflict.
asses off as they grow their economy and spend nothing in these global conflicts while we go in debt with money borrowed from China to protect Ukraine. Let France Germany England do the heavy lifting on this one
Not so sure about that. Many are saying the Chinese are cooking the books more than usual to provide the illusion of continued growth. And they've certainly stepped up military procurement and aggressiveness.
We persuaded Ukraine to disarm it's nukes and then promised to defend them if they were attacked. So that's why it's our problem. Of course, Russia signed the same agreement.
I can't say for certain, but I doubt it's anything comparable to Ukraine. There is much more cultural overlap between the Ukrainians and the Russians that there is between Poles and Russians - linguistically, spiritually (the majority of Ukrainians are Orthodox vs. the overwhelming Catholicism of Poland), ethnically (77% of Ukrainians self-identify as such vs. 17% who call themselves Russian, Poland is 94% Polish).
if we used every single energy option we had, including all of the politically uncomfortable ones, and ramped production and subsidized Europe's needs? Is that doable or realistic? Would it make a difference?
True. At this time, it appears that Russia's operations are very limited in scope - 1000 men is what I've seen. Perhaps it's a probing action to gauge what kind of response there is? The Russian force in Georgia was much larger than that, wasn't it?
if we used every single energy option we had, including all of the politically uncomfortable ones, and ramped production and subsidized Europe's needs? Is that doable or realistic? Would it make a difference?
Not enough infrastructure exists to cover the natural gas shortfall with US exports. Not sure about the coal export infrastructure, though we clearly have the coal if it can be moved.
chutzpah to seduce both side's tens with some fine vino. Putin will be so impressed he'll withdraw his troops, only to be met with nukes, a true mensch' vision.
what the hell do you do? Freeze some assets maybe, but even if they march on Kiev are we going to war over it? Doubtful. And they still have Europe by the balls over natural gas and oil.
and claim ownership of the entire country and Merkel and co would respond with phone calls asking for clarification as to if it were true and why Russia would do such a thing. Britain and the US might apply some more sanctions. Canada would post some funny pictures on twitter.
True. At this time, it appears that Russia's operations are very limited in scope - 1000 men is what I've seen. Perhaps it's a probing action to gauge what kind of response there is? The Russian force in Georgia was much larger than that, wasn't it?
Yes, the Russian force was far larger. And who knows, this may actually turn into something more, but from what I've seen and read, it's still up in the air what the true Russian intentions are. So it's difficult to say with any degree of certainty if this will turn into another large scale invasion or just Russia flexing its muscles using this prime opportunity to thumb its nose at the West. I'm leaning towards Russia playing tough in international politics with the separatists as their pawns than anything resembling actually caring much for the separatists' desires. Link - ( New Window )
He will not say anything until its over, or Russia is attacked, then he will claim to act in self defense. He considers Ukraine part of greater Russia, and is probably plotting what to take next. He is hellbent to restore as many of the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as possible.
Greg is right. Ukraine does not have NATO protection. Europe needs gas. There is nothing of any substance to stop this.
He will not say anything until its over, or Russia is attacked, then he will claim to act in self defense. He considers Ukraine part of greater Russia, and is probably plotting what to take next. He is hellbent to restore as many of the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as possible.
Greg is right. Ukraine does not have NATO protection. Europe needs gas. There is nothing of any substance to stop this.
While I'm no Russian expert, I don't think Putin is so straightforward as you make him out to be. I don't think he's hellbent on restoring the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as much as he is a megalomaniac, who is hellbent on increasing his power-base (and that of Russia) in the global arena at the cost of Ukraine and everyone else involved.
I don't think there is anything that the west can do with regards to force or sanctions that will stop him from continuing to meddle (even instigate) in the events in Ukraine. Only thing that will cause him to pull back is the west's concessions, which will appease his needs.
He is playing for the ages. Megalomania is part of his desired legacy, like Stalin, to whom he welcomes comparison (Stalin's atrocities are downplayed in official history books). But we often equate megalomania with material excesses and ceremonial indulgences, and there Putin is different due to his Soviet upbringing. Western wealth doesn't seem to motivate him. And he's not religious or seeking immortality either.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
He is playing for the ages. Megalomania is part of his desired legacy, like Stalin, to whom he welcomes comparison (Stalin's atrocities are downplayed in official history books). But we often equate megalomania with material excesses and ceremonial indulgences, and there Putin is different due to his Soviet upbringing. Western wealth doesn't seem to motivate him. And he's not religious or seeking immortality either.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
Frankly, that's not the case. Putin has a window of opportunity to extract a great deal of money from the country. He and his friends are some of the richest men in the world. Demographics are against him. Resources are against him. In twenty-five years Russia is going to be a third-rate power and he knows it. He is doing this because he can. Part of it might be megalomania, part of it might be one last moment in the sun before a sad senescence.
He is playing for the ages. Megalomania is part of his desired legacy, like Stalin, to whom he welcomes comparison (Stalin's atrocities are downplayed in official history books). But we often equate megalomania with material excesses and ceremonial indulgences, and there Putin is different due to his Soviet upbringing. Western wealth doesn't seem to motivate him. And he's not religious or seeking immortality either.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
I can buy that. I think that's a good description of his objective, to be the leader, who restored Russian greatness. With that being said, taking physical control of Ukraine seems almost secondary to showing the west, who is the baddest motherf'er on the block because he doesn't give a f@#%. I think Putin's greatest victory may come when the NATO shows its inability to counter his actions.
and now lives a pampered, lazy, elitist lifestyle from everything I have ever read. Money is a huge part of it for him IMO. There have been rumours of the immense wealth of him and his friends for quite a while. The Newsweek article about Putin's daily life makes him sound like every other dictator in history - spoiled, narcissistic, paranoid, and living the high life.
Those are rumors, because nobody has been able to find it. Putin may be the worlds richest man, because he could be if simply he wants to be. So if he's a megalomaniac and his goal is wealth, why has he gone to such incredible exent to conceal it? He not doing anything with it. And he's a do-er.
Its not that odd. His real aspirations are elsewhere.
he has no pressure to reveal his wealth other than to top the Forbes list, and WGAF about the Forbes list? It is common knowledge that he and his friends have been the primary and personal beneficiaries of much of his economic program.
but how does that translate to him not caring about wealth? No matter what he does he still faces a demographic bomb, he still faces resource depletion issues, unless he can strong-arm the rest of the world into blessing off on his taking the mineral wealth of the Arctic, which the world will not do. Russia has a couple more decades in the sun, after which it will not have the money or the population to be a heavy hitter, no matter who is in charge.
"Perhaps".....first time you might have agreed with me
He cares, but not like you or I (assuming you have to pay your bills on time too). He's not using it for any selfish purpose. More money isn't going to make a difference. One article speculated that he doesn't see money as a means of security should he lose power. If there is a next leader, and they want him dead or incarcerated, money won't matter.
As for the future, no one knows what the world will be like in several decades. Putin wants to be the historic Russian leader of the millenium, and he will play his cards as he can. The problem for the world, is he's ruthless, probably evil, and good at what he does. Right now, its Ukraine.
to compare Gilded Age America to the Russia of gangsters of plutocrats in control of the country and its regions, is silly. Yes natural gas is an important resource, but the oil reserves are being rapidly depleted. The influx of low-skill immigrants who are, and whose children will be, poorly educated does not reverse a demographic problem. Yes reports of its demise may be overstated, but that article read like a somewhat more credible apologia for a regime that doesn't deserve the effort.
RE: If you're Russia, China or any other aggressor ...
the "wither Russia" idea becomes vogue and regarded as an inevitability. More often than not its more reflective of wishful thinking rather than anything else. Yes, Russia has its problems and challenges, some very serious. Yet, Russia always endures plodding along its own path.
Moreover, there are some people out there that are giddy with joy waiting for what the believe is the inevitable collapse of the Putinist system. There is this misguided notion that whoever or whatever succeeds Putin will be liberal democratic reformers. Unfortunately what follows is likely to be much worse.
While not perfectly appropriate, I am reminded of a quote from a former professor about the USSR, "The Soviet system is not likely to last and not likely to fundamentally change by evolution, and is not likely to be overthrown by revolution. History to be sure has a way of advancing even when it means leaving historians behind."
Its the last sentence that is the most poignant.
Oh also the oil reserves are not be depleted that rapidly. They are in ok shape. What is more disconcerting is the fact that commodity exports account for 60 % of all budget revenues.
the idea that Oppenheimer would be anti-Russian, considering how absolutely vile the treatment of the Jews was in Russia in the late 19th and early 20th Century, seems plenty understandable. And at times during their history the French where Russophilic, as were the Brits too, to an extent anyway, when the Turks were seen as the more brutal of the two.
The resources are tenuous in some ways and industry related to resource extraction is in tatters, as you let on. Economically they have problems. And despite the protestations of facile economists not all demographic trends are created equal. An increase in the population of educated, skilled workers is a net plus for the economy. An increase in the population of unskilled, poorly educated workers can be quite the opposite if the society is unable to elevate the subsequent generations.
I realize you don't put boots on the ground or jets in the sky, but there has to be something we can do that goes beyond band-aids.
If Russia goes full bore nothing we could send would get there in time to be decisive.
Europe's economic and political malaise isn't quite late 1920's-1930's, but there are similarities.
There wouldn't be a war on Polish soil under almost any circumstances. Putin's not crazy, he isn't going to attack a NATO member state. Ukraine isn't protected by hardwired treaty obligations, but Poland is.
Georgia certainly didn't.
It really has to be Europe. They're the ones who buy Russian Oil. They're the ones who can best apply economic pressure on Russia.
Its obviously speculative but who saw this one expanding to this scope?
I haven't really looked at the Ukrainian military's overall end strength and capabilities, but I doubt they can hold off a full on Russian invasion for too long.
However, I doubt that Russia is even willing to conduct such an invasion. This may look more reminiscent of the Russo-Georgian War of 2008. In which the Ukrainians can probably hold their own until some kind of a concession will be made by the international community to end the conflict.
But that wasn't really even a war (as we define war) if you really look at the resulting effects from the invasion.
Not so sure about that. Many are saying the Chinese are cooking the books more than usual to provide the illusion of continued growth. And they've certainly stepped up military procurement and aggressiveness.
Not enough infrastructure exists to cover the natural gas shortfall with US exports. Not sure about the coal export infrastructure, though we clearly have the coal if it can be moved.
I bet Ukraine would like a mulligan on the Budapest Memorandum then.
Bullshit. Europe has no balls.
But China's certainly been more aggressively flexing their muscles in their region the last few years.
Yes, the Russian force was far larger. And who knows, this may actually turn into something more, but from what I've seen and read, it's still up in the air what the true Russian intentions are. So it's difficult to say with any degree of certainty if this will turn into another large scale invasion or just Russia flexing its muscles using this prime opportunity to thumb its nose at the West. I'm leaning towards Russia playing tough in international politics with the separatists as their pawns than anything resembling actually caring much for the separatists' desires.
Link - ( New Window )
He will not say anything until its over, or Russia is attacked, then he will claim to act in self defense. He considers Ukraine part of greater Russia, and is probably plotting what to take next. He is hellbent to restore as many of the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as possible.
Greg is right. Ukraine does not have NATO protection. Europe needs gas. There is nothing of any substance to stop this.
Link - ( New Window )
He will not say anything until its over, or Russia is attacked, then he will claim to act in self defense. He considers Ukraine part of greater Russia, and is probably plotting what to take next. He is hellbent to restore as many of the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as possible.
Greg is right. Ukraine does not have NATO protection. Europe needs gas. There is nothing of any substance to stop this.
While I'm no Russian expert, I don't think Putin is so straightforward as you make him out to be. I don't think he's hellbent on restoring the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as much as he is a megalomaniac, who is hellbent on increasing his power-base (and that of Russia) in the global arena at the cost of Ukraine and everyone else involved.
I don't think there is anything that the west can do with regards to force or sanctions that will stop him from continuing to meddle (even instigate) in the events in Ukraine. Only thing that will cause him to pull back is the west's concessions, which will appease his needs.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
Frankly, that's not the case. Putin has a window of opportunity to extract a great deal of money from the country. He and his friends are some of the richest men in the world. Demographics are against him. Resources are against him. In twenty-five years Russia is going to be a third-rate power and he knows it. He is doing this because he can. Part of it might be megalomania, part of it might be one last moment in the sun before a sad senescence.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
I can buy that. I think that's a good description of his objective, to be the leader, who restored Russian greatness. With that being said, taking physical control of Ukraine seems almost secondary to showing the west, who is the baddest motherf'er on the block because he doesn't give a f@#%. I think Putin's greatest victory may come when the NATO shows its inability to counter his actions.
Its not that odd. His real aspirations are elsewhere.
He's divorced. He has two daughters that do not live in Russia. Its a different kind of megalomania.
As for the future, no one knows what the world will be like in several decades. Putin wants to be the historic Russian leader of the millenium, and he will play his cards as he can. The problem for the world, is he's ruthless, probably evil, and good at what he does. Right now, its Ukraine.
whither - ( New Window )
Really? You just had to do that?
Moreover, there are some people out there that are giddy with joy waiting for what the believe is the inevitable collapse of the Putinist system. There is this misguided notion that whoever or whatever succeeds Putin will be liberal democratic reformers. Unfortunately what follows is likely to be much worse.
While not perfectly appropriate, I am reminded of a quote from a former professor about the USSR, "The Soviet system is not likely to last and not likely to fundamentally change by evolution, and is not likely to be overthrown by revolution. History to be sure has a way of advancing even when it means leaving historians behind."
Its the last sentence that is the most poignant.
Oh also the oil reserves are not be depleted that rapidly. They are in ok shape. What is more disconcerting is the fact that commodity exports account for 60 % of all budget revenues.
The resources are tenuous in some ways and industry related to resource extraction is in tatters, as you let on. Economically they have problems. And despite the protestations of facile economists not all demographic trends are created equal. An increase in the population of educated, skilled workers is a net plus for the economy. An increase in the population of unskilled, poorly educated workers can be quite the opposite if the society is unable to elevate the subsequent generations.