what the hell do you do? Freeze some assets maybe, but even if they march on Kiev are we going to war over it? Doubtful. And they still have Europe by the balls over natural gas and oil.
at least they can dust off all of the old warfighting and tactics manual from prior to 9/11. I heard that some O6's and E9's are chomping at the bits to start leading their regiments/brigades against their arch-nemesis, the Ruskies.
I'm sure they'd rather fight the war in Ukraine than on their own soil.
There wouldn't be a war on Polish soil under almost any circumstances. Putin's not crazy, he isn't going to attack a NATO member state. Ukraine isn't protected by hardwired treaty obligations, but Poland is.
I don't know much at all about the Ukrainian military Â
asses off as they grow their economy and spend nothing in these global conflicts while we go in debt with money borrowed from China to protect Ukraine. Let France Germany England do the heavy lifting on this one
RE: I don't know much at all about the Ukrainian military Â
asses off as they grow their economy and spend nothing in these global conflicts while we go in debt with money borrowed from China to protect Ukraine. Let France Germany England do the heavy lifting on this one
It really has to be Europe. They're the ones who buy Russian Oil. They're the ones who can best apply economic pressure on Russia.
Do they have the capability to hold off a Russian invasion for any length of time?
I haven't really looked at the Ukrainian military's overall end strength and capabilities, but I doubt they can hold off a full on Russian invasion for too long.
However, I doubt that Russia is even willing to conduct such an invasion. This may look more reminiscent of the Russo-Georgian War of 2008. In which the Ukrainians can probably hold their own until some kind of a concession will be made by the international community to end the conflict.
asses off as they grow their economy and spend nothing in these global conflicts while we go in debt with money borrowed from China to protect Ukraine. Let France Germany England do the heavy lifting on this one
Not so sure about that. Many are saying the Chinese are cooking the books more than usual to provide the illusion of continued growth. And they've certainly stepped up military procurement and aggressiveness.
We persuaded Ukraine to disarm it's nukes and then promised to defend them if they were attacked. So that's why it's our problem. Of course, Russia signed the same agreement.
I can't say for certain, but I doubt it's anything comparable to Ukraine. There is much more cultural overlap between the Ukrainians and the Russians that there is between Poles and Russians - linguistically, spiritually (the majority of Ukrainians are Orthodox vs. the overwhelming Catholicism of Poland), ethnically (77% of Ukrainians self-identify as such vs. 17% who call themselves Russian, Poland is 94% Polish).
if we used every single energy option we had, including all of the politically uncomfortable ones, and ramped production and subsidized Europe's needs? Is that doable or realistic? Would it make a difference?
True. At this time, it appears that Russia's operations are very limited in scope - 1000 men is what I've seen. Perhaps it's a probing action to gauge what kind of response there is? The Russian force in Georgia was much larger than that, wasn't it?
if we used every single energy option we had, including all of the politically uncomfortable ones, and ramped production and subsidized Europe's needs? Is that doable or realistic? Would it make a difference?
Not enough infrastructure exists to cover the natural gas shortfall with US exports. Not sure about the coal export infrastructure, though we clearly have the coal if it can be moved.
chutzpah to seduce both side's tens with some fine vino. Putin will be so impressed he'll withdraw his troops, only to be met with nukes, a true mensch' vision.
what the hell do you do? Freeze some assets maybe, but even if they march on Kiev are we going to war over it? Doubtful. And they still have Europe by the balls over natural gas and oil.
and claim ownership of the entire country and Merkel and co would respond with phone calls asking for clarification as to if it were true and why Russia would do such a thing. Britain and the US might apply some more sanctions. Canada would post some funny pictures on twitter.
True. At this time, it appears that Russia's operations are very limited in scope - 1000 men is what I've seen. Perhaps it's a probing action to gauge what kind of response there is? The Russian force in Georgia was much larger than that, wasn't it?
Yes, the Russian force was far larger. And who knows, this may actually turn into something more, but from what I've seen and read, it's still up in the air what the true Russian intentions are. So it's difficult to say with any degree of certainty if this will turn into another large scale invasion or just Russia flexing its muscles using this prime opportunity to thumb its nose at the West. I'm leaning towards Russia playing tough in international politics with the separatists as their pawns than anything resembling actually caring much for the separatists' desires. Link - ( New Window )
He will not say anything until its over, or Russia is attacked, then he will claim to act in self defense. He considers Ukraine part of greater Russia, and is probably plotting what to take next. He is hellbent to restore as many of the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as possible.
Greg is right. Ukraine does not have NATO protection. Europe needs gas. There is nothing of any substance to stop this.
He will not say anything until its over, or Russia is attacked, then he will claim to act in self defense. He considers Ukraine part of greater Russia, and is probably plotting what to take next. He is hellbent to restore as many of the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as possible.
Greg is right. Ukraine does not have NATO protection. Europe needs gas. There is nothing of any substance to stop this.
While I'm no Russian expert, I don't think Putin is so straightforward as you make him out to be. I don't think he's hellbent on restoring the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as much as he is a megalomaniac, who is hellbent on increasing his power-base (and that of Russia) in the global arena at the cost of Ukraine and everyone else involved.
I don't think there is anything that the west can do with regards to force or sanctions that will stop him from continuing to meddle (even instigate) in the events in Ukraine. Only thing that will cause him to pull back is the west's concessions, which will appease his needs.
He is playing for the ages. Megalomania is part of his desired legacy, like Stalin, to whom he welcomes comparison (Stalin's atrocities are downplayed in official history books). But we often equate megalomania with material excesses and ceremonial indulgences, and there Putin is different due to his Soviet upbringing. Western wealth doesn't seem to motivate him. And he's not religious or seeking immortality either.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
He is playing for the ages. Megalomania is part of his desired legacy, like Stalin, to whom he welcomes comparison (Stalin's atrocities are downplayed in official history books). But we often equate megalomania with material excesses and ceremonial indulgences, and there Putin is different due to his Soviet upbringing. Western wealth doesn't seem to motivate him. And he's not religious or seeking immortality either.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
Frankly, that's not the case. Putin has a window of opportunity to extract a great deal of money from the country. He and his friends are some of the richest men in the world. Demographics are against him. Resources are against him. In twenty-five years Russia is going to be a third-rate power and he knows it. He is doing this because he can. Part of it might be megalomania, part of it might be one last moment in the sun before a sad senescence.
He is playing for the ages. Megalomania is part of his desired legacy, like Stalin, to whom he welcomes comparison (Stalin's atrocities are downplayed in official history books). But we often equate megalomania with material excesses and ceremonial indulgences, and there Putin is different due to his Soviet upbringing. Western wealth doesn't seem to motivate him. And he's not religious or seeking immortality either.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
I can buy that. I think that's a good description of his objective, to be the leader, who restored Russian greatness. With that being said, taking physical control of Ukraine seems almost secondary to showing the west, who is the baddest motherf'er on the block because he doesn't give a f@#%. I think Putin's greatest victory may come when the NATO shows its inability to counter his actions.
Link - ( New Window )
54° 40' or Fight! - ( New Window )
I realize you don't put boots on the ground or jets in the sky, but there has to be something we can do that goes beyond band-aids.
I realize you don't put boots on the ground or jets in the sky, but there has to be something we can do that goes beyond band-aids.
If Russia goes full bore nothing we could send would get there in time to be decisive.
Europe's economic and political malaise isn't quite late 1920's-1930's, but there are similarities.
There wouldn't be a war on Polish soil under almost any circumstances. Putin's not crazy, he isn't going to attack a NATO member state. Ukraine isn't protected by hardwired treaty obligations, but Poland is.
Georgia certainly didn't.
It really has to be Europe. They're the ones who buy Russian Oil. They're the ones who can best apply economic pressure on Russia.
Its obviously speculative but who saw this one expanding to this scope?
I haven't really looked at the Ukrainian military's overall end strength and capabilities, but I doubt they can hold off a full on Russian invasion for too long.
However, I doubt that Russia is even willing to conduct such an invasion. This may look more reminiscent of the Russo-Georgian War of 2008. In which the Ukrainians can probably hold their own until some kind of a concession will be made by the international community to end the conflict.
But that wasn't really even a war (as we define war) if you really look at the resulting effects from the invasion.
Not so sure about that. Many are saying the Chinese are cooking the books more than usual to provide the illusion of continued growth. And they've certainly stepped up military procurement and aggressiveness.
Not enough infrastructure exists to cover the natural gas shortfall with US exports. Not sure about the coal export infrastructure, though we clearly have the coal if it can be moved.
I bet Ukraine would like a mulligan on the Budapest Memorandum then.
Bullshit. Europe has no balls.
But China's certainly been more aggressively flexing their muscles in their region the last few years.
Yes, the Russian force was far larger. And who knows, this may actually turn into something more, but from what I've seen and read, it's still up in the air what the true Russian intentions are. So it's difficult to say with any degree of certainty if this will turn into another large scale invasion or just Russia flexing its muscles using this prime opportunity to thumb its nose at the West. I'm leaning towards Russia playing tough in international politics with the separatists as their pawns than anything resembling actually caring much for the separatists' desires.
Link - ( New Window )
He will not say anything until its over, or Russia is attacked, then he will claim to act in self defense. He considers Ukraine part of greater Russia, and is probably plotting what to take next. He is hellbent to restore as many of the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as possible.
Greg is right. Ukraine does not have NATO protection. Europe needs gas. There is nothing of any substance to stop this.
Link - ( New Window )
He will not say anything until its over, or Russia is attacked, then he will claim to act in self defense. He considers Ukraine part of greater Russia, and is probably plotting what to take next. He is hellbent to restore as many of the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as possible.
Greg is right. Ukraine does not have NATO protection. Europe needs gas. There is nothing of any substance to stop this.
While I'm no Russian expert, I don't think Putin is so straightforward as you make him out to be. I don't think he's hellbent on restoring the boundaries of the former Soviet Union as much as he is a megalomaniac, who is hellbent on increasing his power-base (and that of Russia) in the global arena at the cost of Ukraine and everyone else involved.
I don't think there is anything that the west can do with regards to force or sanctions that will stop him from continuing to meddle (even instigate) in the events in Ukraine. Only thing that will cause him to pull back is the west's concessions, which will appease his needs.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
Frankly, that's not the case. Putin has a window of opportunity to extract a great deal of money from the country. He and his friends are some of the richest men in the world. Demographics are against him. Resources are against him. In twenty-five years Russia is going to be a third-rate power and he knows it. He is doing this because he can. Part of it might be megalomania, part of it might be one last moment in the sun before a sad senescence.
The major part his desired legacy is national zealotry. He wants to do for Russians what no other Russian can do - restore pride and power to levels not previously recognized. There is Russia, then there is the Greater Russia that he is attempting to realize. Ukraine is a small part of it. He'll take some now, because he can, and leave the rest for later. He will also, in his life time, attempt to push NATO back into Europe and reestablish control of the prior Soviet empire, including the Baltics. Whenever there is weakness and opportunity, he will exploit it.
I can buy that. I think that's a good description of his objective, to be the leader, who restored Russian greatness. With that being said, taking physical control of Ukraine seems almost secondary to showing the west, who is the baddest motherf'er on the block because he doesn't give a f@#%. I think Putin's greatest victory may come when the NATO shows its inability to counter his actions.