NFT: Zack Wheeler in historic territory

if nothing else...

He still walks too many people - and nibbles too much from time to time - but has made huge strides in his pitching overall...

thought he'd be an AJ Burnett type and still do. Nice overall season.

and either walking him or give up is frustrating. It may be a random bogus overhyped no deserving modern stat, but I am impressed

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Wheeler gave up an 0-2 hit to Freddie Freeman yesterday.

Pretty cool stat, wish it went back further than 2008. Impressive regardless.

they feel it goes back a lot further

In comment 11829200 Headhunter said:

Quote:

they feel it goes back a lot further

Even if it doesn't. Still impressive. As a Mets fan, we take anything positive we can get.

is getting better and better. I would be extremely hesitant to trade him. AJ Burnett is a good comp and would be a very valuable pitcher.

Burnett never put it all together. He had ace potential and was never a dominant pitcher.

Wheeler still needs to learn to be a pitcher. You dont get extra credit for a strikeout -- he needs to learn to get hitters to make bad contract, rather than a chess match of trying to get the whiff.

Sure he was frustrating and disappointing to some through his career. But several years of major league minimum money for. He eft like performance. I'll take it.

for pitching on Thursdays, on a cloudless day, while wearing Fruit Of the Loom underwear under his uniform.

Seriously though it is nice to see him doing well, it is just with some of the things they track these days it almost seems like there could always be some kind of streak going.

stuff like ERA the 4th time through the lineup,the number of wild pitches the number of runs given up in the first inning, percentage of first pitch strikes average number of pitches per inning, those are legitimate, well because they pop up in graphics during games, mine is just a silly stat that says nothing about a pitcher

I didn't mean any offense towards you, and I'm glad you posted it because I enjoy seeing our young arms doing well.

I just can't keep up with all the new stats they track and made light of it. I figured since you didn't create the stat itself you wouldn't take it personally (grin)

I didn't, there is no turning back on all the statistics being recorded in all sports

Gary occasionally come up with some doozy's when doing the Mets broadcast

every pitch is recorded and assigned to some metric, every ball in play same thing including stats about balls reached or not reached , percent of throws to the correct base and on and on and on

is one of the most underrated pitchers of the last 20 years. The Mets would sign TOMORROW for Wheeler to have AJ Burnett's career.

AJ Burnett 38.6 fWAR, that's good for the 30th most valuable starter in baseball over the last 20 years of baseball, his 3.89 FIP ranks 81st over the last 20 years.


Since 2001 (Burnett's first full season) he's been worth 37.2 WAR which ranks 19th in baseball over the last 14 seasons. If the Mets knew Wheeler would be that good over the next 10+ years they would drop to their knees and thank God.

Mets season ended today with a 4-3 win.

Wheeler would drop to his knees and thank God if he had Burnett's career. He's made $135 mil in his career to date.

I'd sign up for it while he isnt earning real money. Burnett is a longevity player. Never had a great season. Pretty sure he has never been an all star. Probably never even earned a CY young vote. I assume the mets went a few great seasons mixed in for Wheeler.

put up 2 5 WAR seasons and 2 more 4 WAR seasons so I have to disagree there. His time with the Yankees pulls down his overall numbers. 2005 13th most valuable pitcher in baseball, 2002, 19th and 2008 he was 8th. Just calling him a longevity pitcher is unfair. Top 20 in the game 3 seasons, above average 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013

is pretty damn good. 5.3 WAR, 221 innings 231 k's

and someone's career and put it into metrics. but I'm not impressed when your best case is Burnett.

Burnett has never been an all-star, never made it onto a Cy Young ballot, never lead the league in any meaningful stat except K's once, his career ERA is over 4, his career WHIP is over 1.3, add it up and he's some all-time great the Mets should be thanking god for.

not me.

I'd rather a few great seasons where he's elite than a bunch of average or slightly above average ones for a really long time that accumulate stats to say look at my career I'm a 37 WAR.

And baseball reference has his WAR a full 10 points lower than fangraphs. and every few seasons above solid starter.

Just hoping for more than one or two top ten seasons out of Wheeler in his career. Would I be disappointed in wheeler having a Burnett career? No. Would I want to pay for his second or third generation contract? I doubt it.

uses ERA which is idiotic because it's not a pitchers fault what kind of defensive team is behind him. FIP 100% should be used for pitchers WAR

also not sure what reason we have to believe Wheeler is going to be elite, I'm not hating at all but even when he's pitched well second half (and no denying he has) he's still walked as many as he did first half (his K/BB is identical first half and second half actually), the BABIP Gods were against him first half and in his favor second half (.323 first half, .254 second half). Seems like "I hope" more than anything he's done to suggest he's suddenly going to be "elite".

thing is they've said over time the results are almost always the same except extreme cases.

It seems Burnett is an extreme case.

He isn't a bad pitcher, so I don't need to knock him like he is, but my hope for Wheeler isn't unrealistic like Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez, but it's probably between them/that level and AJ Burnett, just better than Burnett.

half 108.1 innings 101 hits 46 walks 105 k's

Second half 51 innings 40 hits 22 walks 50 k's

The process is exactly the game, the results were "worse than they should be" first half and "better than they should be second half". His 3.57 FIP is Representative of his overall year and that's good for 39th in baseball in 2014.

1st and second half are amazingly close, shockingly so. Very rarely see that.

like Wheeler a lot, just pointing out his season has been very good, but nothing second half suggests a major breakout. Maybe next season that happens, very possibly in fact.

by that I mean he won't be throwing 175 pitches a game, he has to get his pitch count under control and regularly see the 8th inning

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from Fangraphs. No shock who is #1
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 11829650 Headhunter said:

Quote:

from Fangraphs. No shock who is #1 Link - ( New Window )

Wow. Scary. Anyone that seriously considered this team a contender at the all star break just needs to click that link. Before clicking it, guess who our 6th and 8th most valuable players have been year to date. Seriously frightening.

If I told you at this point, Wheelers career year would be the following:

18-6 3.30 ERA ( 2.80 FIP) 221 IP with 231 Ks 9.8 k/9 1.17 WHIP

Career best season. You know it in advance. You lock him up to a long term deal now? Or trade him in a blockbuster for a bat? Should be an interesting set of opinions.

announce 2 year extension in LV

that WAR list is only hitting and fielding... pitching is a seperate list.

makes it more amazing that Jacob DeGrom has been the tenth most valuable Hitter on the team!!

Reviews his top 20 preseason prospects
Link - ( New Window )

Former Met Yusmeiro Petit... Set MLB record with retiring 46 straight batters...perfect. He was fun to watch as a prospect.

Baseball reference comparable players to Burnet:

Andy Benes (964)
Darryl Kile (943)
Ron Darling (939)
Tim Belcher (935)
Todd Stottlemyre (926)
Kevin Appier (924)
Mike Hampton (922)
Randy Wolf (922)

was top 5 in Cy Young voting twice, 15 or more wins 4 times (19 once and 20 once), 3 time all star


Hampton 2 time allstar 14 or more wins 5 times, Cy Young in 1999

Benes 2 top 6 finishes for Cy Young (3rd once), 15 or more wins 3 times

Appier was basically "done" at 30... but 89-97 3.30 era, 136 era+


Your expectations of Wheeler must really, really high if guys like this aren't enough to be happy.

Quote:

Anthony DiComo ‏@AnthonyDiComo 37s #Mets are placing Daniel Murphy on the DL as well. Dilson Herrera will debut. Expand

Murph to DL

When was the last time we had a guy who started a season in A ball wound up on the MLB roster in the same season?

Those guys all at least had peak seasons. AJ never did. I'd much rather Wheeler compare to those guys than Burnet. I fully expect wheeler to make a few all star teams.

I think in 2010

Glad to hear he is getting a taste of the big leagues - good for him. Great season, well earned reward for the kid.

time might have been rehab, I know he made his ML debut in 2010 and was in A ball the same season.

So I guess that counts... but Herrera was actually in A ball for like half this season,

In comment 11829127 speedywheels said:

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if nothing else... He still walks too many people - and nibbles too much from time to time - but has made huge strides in his pitching overall...

Baseball is loaded with random stats. Unlike any other sport I've ever followed.

It adds excitement to the fan base. That's never a bad thing.