After another shaky outing last night, and reading all the articles and threads for months about whether or not he's "done" or whether the problem is really the line and the receivers, it occurs to me that it doesn't matter.
Eli seems to be in a situation where he needs to perform, REGARDLESS of the talent around him. If the line never really gels this year, if the receivers never figure out their routs consistently, Eli will get the blame. It's all perception--all optics. Most of us fans--even most of the media--don't analyze the nuances of a bad game. But nothing is black and white. Last season, the coaches all seem to recognize that Eli was in an impossible situation. (Gilbride just said as much recently.) But the result was a horrible QB performance. And Eli simply can't afford another horrible season. I don't think he'll even get away with an average season. No matter who's fault it is. (Coughlin either, for that matter.)
It seems like a ton of pressure. But here's hoping that the line solidifies, ODB is the player we were hoping for, and Eli responds. It really can all come together.
Favre and Warner are two guys who immediately come to mind who had a period of shitty play in the middle of their careers. Favre had a mediocre 2005-2006 and then had a great year in 2007.
So there's historical precedent that makes me believe Eli will follow a similar path.
But you're right, there's an element of hope there.
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It's being patient and showing an understanding that it takes time to work these things out.
There are a shitload of problems on this team, and I acknowledge all of them.
I guess simplifying it to say it's all on the QB is the reasonable approach these days, which is the general tone of these threads saying this is Eli's make or break year, he's gone after this year, etc...
But I guess I'll be told I'm making up that sentiment, and it's only a small majority of people saying that, etc... Which is generally what I'm told at every turn, even though I'm replying directly to that unsilent minority.
First, taking a 'wait and see' approach is what everyone ultimately does. That's not a philosophy. It's not a style. It doesn't even really mean much. None of us actually know what will happen. We all have no choice but to wait and see. That's not an opinion. It's what it is to be a sports fan. We will all wait and see.
It absolutely is a philosophy and style when it comes to posting on BBI.
I've seen plenty of definitive statements made about what will or won't happen, the past couple of days/weeks.
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My concern is that Eli has often operated on some pretty thin margins. And if he's been jarred off that line he's walked sufficiently, finding his way back might not be easy. But I absolutely believe it's possible. To the the extent such a thing can be in the DNA, he would have it.
Favre and Warner are two guys who immediately come to mind who had a period of shitty play in the middle of their careers. Favre had a mediocre 2005-2006 and then had a great year in 2007.
So there's historical precedent that makes me believe Eli will follow a similar path.
But you're right, there's an element of hope there.
Yeah, Farve is a guy we always talk about. Warner I hadn't thought of before, but I suppose that's true, as well. (Though, overall, Farve feels more analogous.)
Britt, you're smart enough and BBI savvy enough that should be able to dismiss definitive statements out of hand. You know there are people on here not worth taking seriously, much less responding to.
Actually, the worse everyone else on offense plays, Eli has to go above and beyond what might be reasonable. If (let's say "when") the offense gels, that situation completely turns around. Again, it's all perception.
Personally, I don't have a feeling, right, wrong, or indifferent as to what's going to happen this year. Last year left such an awful, hopeless feeling that I'm literally numb to the start of this season.
I also hope that things will work out for the best.
That said, there has to be a counterpoint to all of the negativity here. I'm just trying to pop in and provide that from time to time. Trying to keep the discussion reasonable.
The level of optimism displayed is usually done to balance the level of negativity displayed. If it's extreme, I go extreme the opposite direction. If it's level headed and addresses both sides, that's how I approach it.
It's tailored to the discussion.
Personally, I don't have a feeling, right, wrong, or indifferent as to what's going to happen this year. Last year left such an awful, hopeless feeling that I'm literally numb to the start of this season.
I also hope that things will work out for the best.
That said, there has to be a counterpoint to all of the negativity here. I'm just trying to pop in and provide that from time to time. Trying to keep the discussion reasonable.
The level of optimism displayed is usually done to balance the level of negativity displayed. If it's extreme, I go extreme the opposite direction. If it's level headed and addresses both sides, that's how I approach it.
It's tailored to the discussion.
You'd made reference above to (something along the lines) of the season already being spoiled for you. Because other people see things differently from you? Why let it effect you that way? Especially from people whose opinions that shouldn't count all that much at all? (Like that guy who said, take away the two SBs, TC and Nassib is probably our new starter.)
Last year is a recent example of pessimism being warranted. And even then, we somehow wound up with something to hang onto the second half of the season. Giants fans, of all fan bases, should understand that any fucking thing is possible. Most especially when no one sees it coming. That should have been the lesson of '07 and '11. I've said more than once that despite the serious ups and downs, the 07 regular may have been my favorite as a Giants fan. Just because the insane ups and downs made for a thrilling ride. And then it only got better.
But there's also a lesson from last season. Sometimes things are exactly as they appear.
So, yeah. We'll see. I take comfort from the fact that I don't see anyone, bar the Eagles, running away from us in the division. And my perception (uh oh) of the Eagles is just skewed enough that I can tell myself, they might not.
(Smash cut to the Redskins going 16-0.)
But I stand by my Elway one.
Eli: 25 4th quarter comebacks, 30 game winning drives
Throwing for 4000 yards today isn't the same as when Phil Simms threw for the same 4000 yards 30 years ago. So comparing Manning and Elway is a meaningless comparison.
What's next? Joe Namath was a bum because he threw more INT's than TD passes? Never mind the fact he played QB when defenders were able to mug receivers all over the field legally without penalty (see: The Mel Blount Rule).
Completion percentages are still good numbers. TD's to INT's are still good numbers. Yards, well, if you make an estimate saying that throwing for 3000 back then is like throwing for 4000 now, it still bears out considering Elway only hit 4000 once in his career, and Eli only hit 5000 once, but they were both consistently above the average amount of passing yards per season.
Game winning drives are still game winning drives. Comebacks are still comebacks.
I have no idea what type of point you're trying to make comparing Eli to Elway. They don't even have similar styles of play.
mikewaldwick : 11/25/2009 7:15 pm
Eli Manning and John Elway’s NFL careers began the exact same way. After 88 starts you’ll see their stats are very similar as well.
Even though, in my opinion, today’s QB, in general, has become more of a dink and dunk position (resulting in higher passer ratings), as we saw on Sunday, Eli’s style of down-the-field passing is similar to when Elway played.
What I found very interesting is that the Giants and Broncos were LAST PLACE teams the year before Eli and Elway were drafted. Two years later, after their first full season, both the Giants and Broncos were FIRST PLACE teams.
Two years ago this comparison may have been slightly insulting to John Elway fans but Eli is definitely closing the gap with his play over the last couple years.
Eli and Elway after 88 total starts (81 Regular Season starts and 7 playoff starts)
DRAFTED: Eli first overall/traded, Elway first overall/traded
RECORD YEAR BEFORE DRAFT: Giants 2003: 4-12 (last), Broncos 1982: 2-7 (last-strike season)
RECORD AFTER FIRST FULL SEASON 2005-Giants 11-5 (first), 1984-Broncos 13-3 (first)
SUPER BOWLS: Eli 1, Elway 0
TOTAL RECORD: Eli 52-36 .591, Elway 57-30-1 .655
REG SEASON RECORD: Eli 48- 33 .593, Elway 53-27-1 .663
PLAYOFF RECORD: Eli 4-3 .571, Elway 4-3 .571
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: Eli .535, Elway .518
AVG. RANK OF DEFENSES PLAYED AGAINST (YDS): Eli 15.1, Elway 17.6**
PASSER RATING: Eli 78.1, Elway 74.1
ATT: Eli 2,781, Elway 2,788
COMP: Eli 1,576, Elway 1,515
COMP PCT: Eli 56.7%, Elway 54.3%
PASSING YARDS: Eli 18,311, Elway 19,330
NET PASSING YARDS: Eli 17,296, Elway 17,981
YARDS/ATT: Eli 6.6, Elway 6.9
TD: Eli 124, Elway 111
INT: Eli 90, Elway 103
4th QTR/OT COMEBACKS: Eli 17, Elway 17
SACKS/YARDS: Eli 147/1,015, Elway 178/1,349
**Elways competitors ranked 15.4 in defense out of 28 teams which equates to 17.6 against 32 teams
Link - ( New Window )
Sorry, 4933.
Ironically enough, after Elways 10th year, the coaching staff was replaced, and they brought in a new system.
An unknown guy named Jim Fassel came in as O Coordinator and QB's coach, and Elway had the best season of his career.
Nope, no parellels at all.
Up to this point, those that disagree have presented nothing but hyperbole.
His elevation to clear-cut all-time status honestly involves a lot of "But his teammates sucked!" and 'forgetting' stuff like how there was time later in his career, pre-SBs, when people thought he broken and done and the Broncos had to do a coaching staff (and more) overhaul to fix him or how terrible he really played in one of those SB wins (and how terrible he was in some of their losses prior).
Riggies : 12:46 pm : link : reply
to be a 5-10 all-time QB than in reality was he one. Not statistically compared to current QBs, but to his own peers and even more so when accounting for the strength of competition compared peers (usually in the other conference)....
One of my points about Namath
Elways year 10 was a bad year whether it was in 1992 or 2013 (adjusted for inflation).
Because it's been pretty damn quiet on the Eli/Elway front since I posted the information.
But the game is significantly skewed in favor of the offense now than it was in the 80s and 90s, so drawing comparisons between their numbers is like drawing comparisons between Elway and Unitas.
The best way to judge a QB is among his peers, and in that regard, Elway was probably 2nd to Montana.
Eli, as much as I like him, isn't even in the top 5 among his peers.
It's not that difficult to see the distinction between the game then and the game now and recognize that QBs have a distinct advantage in racking up numbers now than their forerunners did.
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There's actually a pretty good argument that Elway is more peceived
Riggies : 12:46 pm : link : reply
to be a 5-10 all-time QB than in reality was he one. Not statistically compared to current QBs, but to his own peers and even more so when accounting for the strength of competition compared peers (usually in the other conference)....
One of my points about Namath
Namath's an even bigger example, honestly.
Both guys benefitted extraordinarily from being of the eras they were, with how sports were covered and how narratives formed and were ran with, ultimately embedded in consciousness as "truths."
If they had their same careers now (adjusted to the era)? Whether accurate/fair or not, Elway would pretty much be in Eli's shoes, in terms of how he's viewed (minus the stupid body language type stuff Eli gets), and Namath wouldn't be viewed as anything good at all for the most part.
He responded calmly with some context. Aside from disagreeing with him about Eli's arm strength, what he wrote was sound and reasonable.
And I still haven't seen a response to the idea that Eli is walking into the HoF first year he's eligible. Since you see so many parallels, wouldn't that be logical consequence? Or is it possible that a hyperbolic comparison of coincidences isn't an especially realistic assessment of their respective skill sets and careers? And you know that's there's no chance, right now, that Eli meets that standard? And thus the analogy is a lot thinner than copy and paste blocks of stats would appear to suggest?