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| The fading veteran revitalized by a scheme change 2013: Philip Rivers 2014: Eli Manning I’ve suggested this in the past on the podcast, but it seems like an obvious comparison. Rivers had been declining for years at the helm of Norv Turner’s offense because it no longer fit San Diego’s personnel, as the offensive line just wasn’t good enough to keep Rivers upright for very long. With Turner fired, the Chargers turned to Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt, who installed a West Coast scheme that relied on Rivers’s accuracy and allowed him to get the ball out quickly. The result was a massive improvement. That’s almost exactly what is happening in New York. Over the past five seasons, Manning’s average pass has traveled 9.24 yards in the air, more than anybody else in football. That was great when he had an excellent offensive line and receivers like Plaxico Burress and Hakeem Nicks, but in recent years, Kevin Gilbride’s downfield passing attack has failed to fit his personnel. With a middling offensive line (one that’s already been ripped apart by injuries this preseason) and smaller receivers, new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo is … wait for it … installing a West Coast offense that is designed to get the ball out quicker and appeal to Manning’s accuracy. He might not get the same dramatic results Rivers enjoyed last season, but at the very least, it should stave off concerns that Manning’s time in New York is coming to a close. Oh, and as for that crappy preseason Manning just struggled through? I wouldn’t be concerned. While adjusting to the new scheme during the 2013 preseason, Rivers went 20-of-33 for 166 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, producing a passer rating of just 48.3. The preseason means nothing, remember? |
Rivers in 2012
26 TDs
15 INTs
3,606 Yards
64% Completion Percentage
Sacked 49 times, 15 fumbles, 7 lost
Manning in 2013
18 TDs
27 INTs
3,818 Yards
58% Completion Percentage
Sacked 39 times,7 fumbles, 2 lost
But let's all cross our fingers that he's right.
We can argue about the word homer, but he is a Giants fan (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-debut-of-our-nfl-preview-podcast-series-with-bill-barnwell-and-robert-mays/), and in my reading of him at Grantland I've found him more optimistic than most.
maybe in language, but a lot of plays seem eerily similar and i don't really see GreenBay in this.. where is this west coast-ness?
we threw 4 screen passes in game 1 and i haven't seen one since..
its still longer pass attempts, no swing passes, no rubs or quick outs short crossing patterns...
so thinking things will change because of a new offensive system seems less likely here
He is a Giants fan, but he's largely shown himself to be one of those Giants fans, where if attempted objectivity isn't fully required for whatever he's writing, will take the "If it's bad, it's going to happen to my team." route.
Ok. I'll just leave this here then: http://grantland.com/features/bill-barnwell-nfl-teams-best-shot-lombardi-trophy/
I am a fan of statistical analysis, and a big fan of Football Outsiders. But stats, like a lot of things, can be manipulated to justify anything you want to write.
Rivers YPA: 6.8
That's exactly the point the guy is making about Eli - he throws deeper than every QB and his terrible YPA last year was still better than Rivers' 2012. That's exactly the point of this new scheme as to why the INTs will go down (as will the yardage)
No one is saying he is definitely right and neither is he. He is saying it's a possibility. He is not justifying anything. It's an opinion and stated as such. The comparison to Rivers is very pat in many ways.
Also that 2013 Barwell season preview hardly predicts that the Giants would win the division and predicts a worst-case scenario of 7-9. We were as bad as I thought we would be and went 7-9, never mind that 'we were a four-win team' - (which I do believe). We went 7-9, he said it could happen yet somehow sayng that is pro-Giants?
Well we tied for 25th in sacks last year so we didn't do that.
So yes, Barnwell gloriously predicted a Giants turnaround. This one guy who says so needs to take remedial reading.
No one is saying he is definitely right and neither is he. He is saying it's a possibility. He is not justifying anything. It's an opinion and stated as such. The comparison to Rivers is very pat in many ways.
Where did I say it wasn't an opinion? My only point is that Barnwell is a Giants fan, and in my opinion is likely to give them the benefit of the doubt.
He lists them as among 8 "NFL Contenders"! But no, he doesn't predict them as division winners. Only as one of eight teams to have a shot of winning the Super Bowl. Talk about remedial reading.
is a big reason that I don't really worry about the "is Eli accurate enough for WCO. His lower pct comp rate is in large part due to the fact that he's throwing it deeper than most QBs. And it's why his 63% peak was pretty damn great.
The truth of it was there were very few contenders (meaning teams that could win it all) last year and that includes playoff teams like Philly, Cincinnati and if you are being honest, Kansas City and Indy. It is subjective but the contenders were more than likely these six teams: Seattle, SF, NE, Denver, Green Bay and SD in 2013.
By the same token he correctly predicted declines of the Falcons, Redskins, Bears but wasn't right on that for the Colts - with the Cowboys and Dolphins remaining mediocre.
His track record seems pretty good although not perfect, as you suggest he should be. But if his track record is good, maybe he won't be 'wrong' on the Giants two years in a row.
But if you read what he wrote about the Giants, he wasn't wrong at all. I don't know what he 'predicted' about the Giants' 2013 O because I don't see it.