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NFT: Fantasy chat: 8/31

nygiants16 : 8/31/2014 9:17 am
Had my 12 team draft last night pick 7 .5 per 4 point passing td what do you guys think?

Foles
Lynch
Jennings
Dez bryant
Keenan allen
Kendall Wright
Jordan Reed
Gould
Browns

Bench
Bernard pierce
Shonn Greene
Joique bell
Marcus Wheaton
Rod Streator
Ladarius green

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RE: AGF  
Jon in NYC : 9/1/2014 3:52 pm : link
In comment 11836174 Rocky Thompson said:
Quote:
I would agree but I don't think Matt Ryan is that good. With Julio all you have to do is get it close and he does the rest, I would consider Roddy a bigger injury risk than Julio. I'm much more comfortable with Reggie Wayne than Roddy White. I have, however, put some stock in Steven Jackson as an RB 3/ flex in deeper leagues, could be a valuable sleeper when healthy.


I'd much rather have Roddy than a 35 year old Reggie Wayne coming off an ACL tear. And this is coming from someone who owns Wayne in my only league so far.
Jon  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 4:03 pm : link
The only thing keeping Reggie Wayne from 80 receptions this year is Hakeem Nicks. Reggie is still the best WR on that team...
I can't buy that argument  
AnotherGiantsFan : 9/1/2014 4:06 pm : link
Look at the numbers Roddy put up with Matt Ryan as QB. Barring last year, it's all 1,100-1,300 receiving yards. Matt Ryan knows how to get Roddy White the ball. Matt Ryan also had a great 2012 year but suffered in 2013 because of that awful OL.

Roddy White being an injury concern is a misnomer (credit to robbieballs). He missed his only 3 games of his career last year. He tried fighting through injuries and that's why he struggled last year. There is absolutely no way Roddy White is more of an injury concern than Julio Jones. No shot.
Would you rather have Roddy starting on  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 4:21 pm : link
Your fantasy team injured, like last year and unproductive or sitting out so you can replace him. He only missed 3 games physically, missed more than a dozen fantasy wise.

Look at Nicks for us, he played hurt without practice 2 years ago, was mostly ineffective and people are glad to see him go. Eli will miss Nicks more than anything else this year. If Reggie Wayne didn't have Hakeem Nicks stealing looks I'd venture to say that Wayne will be more productive than Victor Cruz because Cruz doesn't have Hakeem Nicks. Weird but true.

I like Roddy, I don't trust Ryan. Nicks will be a sleeper
RE: Would you rather have Roddy starting on  
AnotherGiantsFan : 9/1/2014 4:37 pm : link
In comment 11836207 Rocky Thompson said:
Quote:
Your fantasy team injured, like last year and unproductive or sitting out so you can replace him. He only missed 3 games physically, missed more than a dozen fantasy wise.

Look at Nicks for us, he played hurt without practice 2 years ago, was mostly ineffective and people are glad to see him go. Eli will miss Nicks more than anything else this year. If Reggie Wayne didn't have Hakeem Nicks stealing looks I'd venture to say that Wayne will be more productive than Victor Cruz because Cruz doesn't have Hakeem Nicks. Weird but true.

I like Roddy, I don't trust Ryan. Nicks will be a sleeper


There's no doubt he struggled last year. He tried fighting through injuries. It happens. Doesn't mean he's automatically an injury concern. Look at his last 5 games when he was finally healthy.

10 receptions, 143 yards

8 receptions, 74 yards

5 receptions, 53 yards

12 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD

8 receptions, 91 yards, 1 TD

I'm not trying to be hypersensitive about Roddy White. It's just I felt the same way as you a couple of weeks back. I assumed his body was just breaking down. But it seems like he just tried playing through an injury when he should have sat out.

I'm not in love with Ryan, but I don't think he'll hurt Roddy's production all that much.

I do like Reggie Wayne too though. He has great value at where he's getting picked.
RE: Alright, my drafts with BBIers are over so  
arcarsenal : 9/1/2014 4:40 pm : link
In comment 11836099 Rocky Thompson said:
Quote:
Let me tell you right off, everything that has been printed this preseason has said that Gio Bernard will split carries with Jeremy Hill. Both of their preseason performances have confirmed those projections. Gio Bernard in the 2nd or 3rd rd is a complete overdraft. Jeremy Hill in the 9th or 10th rd is a much better value.

Gio will have slightly more value in a PPR league but you are much better off grabbing Gronk in the 3rd and Shane Vereen in the 4th. Vereen > Gio without question.

Top 5 WR rankings in PPR:

Calvin
Dez
Marshall
Julio Jones
AJGreen. (Dalton sucks)

The best 2 IDPs that nobody's drafting:
Shazier
Kirksey

Both potential top 10 tacklers this year.

Don't draft any Giants unless you're going to trade them to a Giants homer.

If you don't draft Peyton Manning, load up elsewhere and grab Brady in the 6th or 7th.

Phillip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger > Foles/Ryan/Dalton


And yes, in a 6pt per TD league, Peyton Manning is the # 1 pick.


Meh, if you can get Brees in the 2nd rd, I think the value is just as good (if not slightly better) than Peyton in the 1st. Especially at #1 overall. I think their numbers are going to be much closer this year than people think.

Peyton will still almost certainly be the best QB, but he's not going to throw 55 TD passes again. He and Brees will converge a bit and finish pretty close to each other, IMO.. and I don't think Rodgers will be that far behind, either.
I disagree with a significant amount of what Rocky said..  
kmed : 9/1/2014 6:39 pm : link
First off, I took Bernard in rd 3 which I saw as incredible value. I did not think he was worth my 15th overall pick, because I loved Brees' value at 15(and Lynch was available who I had rated much higher than Bernard), but I think his value was outstanding at 26. I'm not sure how preseason told you that they will split carries. Who got the majority of the reps with the starting offense? Bernard is the #1 back.

I forget who it was on bbi, but someone convinced me of his value and I became higher on Bernard, the more I researched him. Regardless of Hill's role, which probably won't be even as much as Benjarvis' role last year, Bernard has a lot of value. He was the 12th ranked RB last year despite getting 50 less carries than Green-Ellis. He really came on after week 3 and he was 2nd on the team in receptions. Bernard is electric and is going to be a bigger part of the offense than Hill who did great against backups in the preseason. I'd guess that Bernard will get at least 65% of the snaps at RB. He's a good runner, he's a good pass catcher and he's good by the goalline.

Whenever you try to predict what Bill Belichick is going to do at RB, you end up disappointed. There's usually value there, but you never know what he's going to do. Recent history suggests that he likes sharing time at RB a lot. The hype that Vereen has gotten this offseason is making him extremely overvalued. He very well could have limited value in fantasy football. He has no history of success and he's playing for a very unpredictable coach who's shared touches a lot recently. Pass on Vereen in the 4th.

Gronk in the 3rd is extremely risky. When healthy, he's got rd 1/2 talent, but he's coming back from a major knee injury that he sustained shortly after missing a ton of time from a major back injury. He's about as risky as they come and the upside from rd 3 is extremely risky. I love Gronk, but I'm not taking a shot on him in rd 3.

My WR rankings are similar, Calvin, Thomas, Dez, AJ Green, Marshall, Julio. AJ Green has had dalton for two years and put up insane numbers both years. Not sure why he will fall off now because "Dalton sucks".



RE: Jon  
pjcas18 : 9/1/2014 6:42 pm : link
In comment 11836192 Rocky Thompson said:
Quote:
The only thing keeping Reggie Wayne from 80 receptions this year is Hakeem Nicks. Reggie is still the best WR on that team...

What happened to TY Hilton? He caught 82 passes last year in that offense.
Bernard has played on 52 of the 63 first team reps(82.5%)  
kmed : 9/1/2014 6:48 pm : link
I'm assuming that when you say "bernard and hill will split carries, both of their preseason performances have confirmed that", you are trying to suggest that because Hill was fantastic against all the backups and has looked very solid playing against only backups, that he will get a large portion of the touches? Are you also suggesting that because Bernard played somewhat poorly in the preseason that he will have lost a bunch of touches that he would have gotten if he had a good preseason? They have a whole season of actual football to judge Bernard. This preseason meant nothing to him as far as performance. He proved last year that he can handle a lot of touches and be effective. He's going to get more touches this year than he did last year. Hill will get his, but he will probably get less touches than Green-Ellis did last year.
Rocky, I couldn't disagree more with your opinions on the WR.  
kmed : 9/1/2014 6:52 pm : link
I guess first and foremost, Matt Ryan doesn't suck. He's had a lot of success in the NFL and can put up stats. White was a shell of himself last year, but he has WR1/2 potential. I love Wayne, but Hilton is the big play guy there. Nicks is their #3 and most likely won't rival Hilton or Wayne. TY Hilton is the WR I want on that team, but he went way too early for my taste.
RE: I disagree with a significant amount of what Rocky said..  
AnotherGiantsFan : 9/1/2014 7:06 pm : link
In comment 11836365 kmed said:
Quote:
Whenever you try to predict what Bill Belichick is going to do at RB, you end up disappointed. There's usually value there, but you never know what he's going to do. Recent history suggests that he likes sharing time at RB a lot. The hype that Vereen has gotten this offseason is making him extremely overvalued. He very well could have limited value in fantasy football. He has no history of success and he's playing for a very unpredictable coach who's shared touches a lot recently. Pass on Vereen in the 4th.


This isn't really predicting what Belichick is going to do at RB; Shane Vereen is a WR in a RBs body as far as that offense goes. He's just another weapon for that team, what Ridley or James White does has no impact on Shane Vereen whatsoever.

Him having no history of success is just flat out wrong. When he was healthy last year, he produced.

Giovani Bernard in 16 games - 1209 total yards, 56 receptions, 8 TDs

Shane Vereen in 8 games - 635 total yards, 47 receptions, 4 TDs

Shane Vereen was on pace to having the same type of season as Gio with yards and TDs, but a shit load more receptions. Now those numbers are skewed because pace is a rough thing to estimate and Gio Bernard is getting a bigger role this year. But that's why Gio Bernard is a 2nd round pick (you got a steal in the 3rd) and Shane Vereen is a 4-5 round pick.

You're way off base here IMO. The only concern I have for Vereen is him staying on the field.
Arc  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 7:28 pm : link
If you'll notice I said Peyton Manning was the # 1 pick overall in leagues that give 6 pts per passing TD. Bree's ain't gonna be there in the second round, would you take Bree's over Manning knowing the best available QB would probably be Stafford come your next pick? My leagues penalize for INTs, Stafford not even an option in my book.
Ty Hilton is the fastest WR  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 7:32 pm : link
on the Colts, Reggie Wayne is the best receiver...
Can you see  
Fish : 9/1/2014 7:33 pm : link
Benard becoming a 2015 Top 3 RB next season? In other words will he be put in the AP, Charles, Mccoy class? This is too early but maybe next year?
RE: Arc  
arcarsenal : 9/1/2014 7:36 pm : link
In comment 11836434 Rocky Thompson said:
Quote:
If you'll notice I said Peyton Manning was the # 1 pick overall in leagues that give 6 pts per passing TD. Bree's ain't gonna be there in the second round, would you take Bree's over Manning knowing the best available QB would probably be Stafford come your next pick? My leagues penalize for INTs, Stafford not even an option in my book.


Rock.. I just drafted in a league that is 6 pts for pass TD's last week. Peyton went 9th overall and I took Brees at 16. Rodgers went 25th.

And Stafford is the 5th best QB in this class, IMO. Not even an option? That's lunacy.
It's no secret that Reggie Wayne is the slot WR now  
AnotherGiantsFan : 9/1/2014 7:36 pm : link
That's what was reported, and that's what he played in preseason. TY Hilton is the big play threat on that team.
AGF,  
kmed : 9/1/2014 7:39 pm : link
I get that Vereen was pretty good for 8 games last season, but that was pretty much my point.

2011: 5 games-57 total yards
2012: 13 games=400 total yards
2013: 8 games=635 total yards

Vereen went on a nice streak of catching balls, including a 12 catch game, but that doesn't change the fact that there is no history of success for a season. Partly because he hasn't been on the field for a full season, but that needs to be factored in.

Vereen is most certainly going to be a part of NE's offense, but to me, the 4th round is way too high considering his upside. He gets no carries, he gets little to no goalline work and he's quite inconsistent week to week.
RE: Can you see  
kmed : 9/1/2014 7:47 pm : link
In comment 11836447 Fish said:
Quote:
Benard becoming a 2015 Top 3 RB next season? In other words will he be put in the AP, Charles, Mccoy class? This is too early but maybe next year?


If I had to predict Bernard's season best case scenario:

1000 yards rushing
11 total TD's
65 catches
559 yards

That would put him right in the #5 range, below the top tier RB's.
If he has a season like that, getting 70% of the  
kmed : 9/1/2014 7:50 pm : link
offensive touches and last the full season, he will be a first round draft pick next year for sure.
kmed  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 7:53 pm : link
I know you don't agree with most of what I say, that's cool, makes me confident in my thinking but you are just giving the wrong advice to people here about Gio Bernard, he's going to share the load equally with Jeremy Hill.

Player Note Fri, Aug 29
The Bengals' website suggests the team "must have thunder and lightning dancing through their heads" following rookie Jeremy Hill's performance in Thursday night's preseason finale.
Advice: Given a whopping 26 touches, Hill totaled 160 yards while earning the respect of teammates. Terence Newman and Jason Campbell both praised Hill for the effort, which included a funny-bone injury from which Hill returned to put the game away. Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson noted that Hill's workload "typified what new (OC) Hue Jackson wants," as he demonstrated "power," "speed," "vision," and "creativity," particularly on a weaving 41-yard screen pass where Hill "deked" a safety. Hill also "picked up a couple of blitzes," although he missed one, resulting in a sack of Campbell. Hill's ADP has climbed into the late-ninth-round, where he remains a value pick. Hill and Gio Bernard are expected to share carries this season in the "Thunder and Lightning" committee.
More: bengals.com
(Rotoworld.com)


Doesn't get any plainer than that. Are the HC and OC lying? Do you have a connection more inside than the HC and the OC?
Vereen not staying healthy is definitely a huge concern  
AnotherGiantsFan : 9/1/2014 7:57 pm : link
It's personally my only concern as far as him being a fantasy prospect goes. I could be dead wrong though.

I couldn't possibly care less how few carries he has. It's all about total yardage and amount of receptions if you're in a PPR league. Him getting TDs is a concern legitimate concern.

4th round is an OK spot. I love him as a 5th rounder.
I disagree with a lot of your fantasy opinions because they are  
kmed : 9/1/2014 7:59 pm : link
usually based on nothing. I read that passage on rotoworld. Where in that passage does an OC and/or HC discuss anything regarding playing time? What exactly would I suggest they are lying about? That they like him and how he's run in the preseason? I do not think that they are lying about that at all.

Regarding the thunder and lightening or any time share, it's the opinion of a writer based on preseason results. I do think Hill is going to snake some carries, but Bernard will get the majority of the touches and be extremely valuable for fantasy purposes.
arc  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:00 pm : link
The guy who picked Peyton 9 th will win the regular season. I don't know the rest of your scoring but at 6 pts per TD pass I would guess Manning had 450 pts last year, who can touch that of the 8 picks before Manning?

Btw, I like Brees, what's not to like but Personally I'd rather have ARod.

Stafford's primed for a great year but in a league that penalizes for INTs he's an after thought and I'm grabbing Brady in the 6th.
Just to explain something,  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:00 pm : link
share carries does not mean 50/50.
RE: arc  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:02 pm : link
In comment 11836495 Rocky Thompson said:
Quote:
The guy who picked Peyton 9 th will win the regular season. I don't know the rest of your scoring but at 6 pts per TD pass I would guess Manning had 450 pts last year, who can touch that of the 8 picks before Manning?

Btw, I like Brees, what's not to like but Personally I'd rather have ARod.

Stafford's primed for a great year but in a league that penalizes for INTs he's an after thought and I'm grabbing Brady in the 6th.


Dude, it's all relative. The top 5 fantasy players were QB's.
Man  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:03 pm : link
I got to get in some money leagues where people follow your advice.
Rocky,  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:04 pm : link
We used to have some pretty differing opinions and I invited you into one of my leagues, so we do have a history. Do you remember what happened that season?
Rock..  
arcarsenal : 9/1/2014 8:04 pm : link
My RB1 is Adrian Peterson. The guy who took Peyton's RB1 is Rashad Jennings.

Just because he has Peyton doesn't mean he's going to win the league. That's silly.
Share carries does not mean 50/50  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:05 pm : link
Getting 200 carries each means 50/50

Defend it all you want, Gio taken anywhere ahead of Vereen was a bad pick...
Last year Green-Ellis got 220 carries  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:07 pm : link
and Bernard 170. I'd guess that Bernard will get 240 carries and Hill or another backup will get 150 carries.
RE: Rocky,  
AnotherGiantsFan : 9/1/2014 8:09 pm : link
In comment 11836504 kmed said:
Quote:
We used to have some pretty differing opinions and I invited you into one of my leagues, so we do have a history. Do you remember what happened that season?


Please, do tell...
No kmed  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:11 pm : link
I don't remember, let me guess you got one of your cronies to trade you Priest Holmes for a backup QB because you told him he was gonna be a #1 pick the following year?
rocky talks a big game.  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:16 pm : link
So to wrap it all up according to rocky:

Bernard was terrible value in the 3rd round because Hill, who had a great preseason against all backups, is going to "share carries" with Bernard. Forget that Bernard had 44% of the carries last year and was still the 12th ranked RB.

Draft Peyton 1 overall in 6 pt per TD leagues because he scores more points than everyone else. You can't lose.

Reggie Wayne is the WR to have on the Colts and Nicks is going to cut into his production.

Matt Ryan sucks which means Roddy White won't have value.

What did I miss?
arc  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:16 pm : link
At 6pts per Passing TD, the guy who took Peyton has the top scorer in the league, Of course, depending on your scoring, Rashad Jennings doesn't help but if it's PPR and he got Dez Bryant or Brandon Marshall on the way back down and Julio Jones or Antonio Bryant in the 3rd his RBs don't really matter.
Dalton sucks  
AnotherGiantsFan : 9/1/2014 8:17 pm : link
.
In what leagues is Julio Jones  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:17 pm : link
going in the 3rd?
Dalton sucks and yet AJ Green  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:18 pm : link
has had two straight seasons of 97 catches, 1400 yards and 10 TD's.
what is this qb are highest scorers meaning anything?  
CruzShip52 : 9/1/2014 8:19 pm : link
id much rather go a stud in rounds 1-5 and then a qb rather than a qb and have a weaker position player, all qbs score the most points doesnt make them more valuable
I didn't Roddy wouldn't have value  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:24 pm : link
I said I'm more concerned with Roddy getting hurt than Reggie Wayne. I'd rather have Wayne than White. Luck is just better than Ryan.

You go on telling people To draft Gio in the 2nd and I'll keep taking Vereen in the 5th and Jeremy Hill in the 9th.
Dude, you're approaching fantasy football the wrong way..  
arcarsenal : 9/1/2014 8:26 pm : link
You just are.

Just because Peyton will score the most points overall doesn't mean you draft him #1 overall. It's not QB vs QB. Your team accumulates points as a whole. Taking Peyton 1st overall means you don't get a single RB or WR until the 20th and 21st picks

If you take McCoy first, and you can get Alshon or Nelson + Rodgers with your next 2 picks, wouldn't you much rather have an elite RB, an elite QB + a WR1 just outside of Tier 1 and right at the top of Tier 2?

If you take Peyton first, the best you're probably going to do at RB is Bell, Morris or Martin.

Personally, I would take the trio of McCoy, Jeffery and Rodgers over Peyton, Bell and Jeffery because I think the gap between McCoy and Bell is larger than the gap between Peyton and Rodgers
Ok, so to clarify....  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:26 pm : link
I made it clear that I myself passed on bernard in rd 2 and took him in rd 3 and the commentary on this thread was vereen in the 4th. Bernard is great value in the 3rd and Vereen is ok value in the 5th.

What leagues does Julio Jones go in the third  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:27 pm : link

Leagues than give 6pts per TD and Peyton goes 9th?
So...  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:30 pm : link


Quote:
AGF
Rocky Thompson : 3:50 pm : link : reply
I would agree but I don't think Matt Ryan is that good. With Julio all you have to do is get it close and he does the rest, I would consider Roddy a bigger injury risk than Julio. I'm much more comfortable with Reggie Wayne than Roddy White. I have, however, put some stock in Steven Jackson as an RB 3/ flex in deeper leagues, could be a valuable sleeper when healthy.


Ryan sucks, yet have you seen the seasons White has put up with Ryan at QB? Reggie Wayne is coming off an ACL tear, White was battling a lower leg injury(no surgery). Roddy White is arguably the most durable WR in the game. Take a look at his track record. He's played 16 games every single season except last season when he gutted out 13. Yet you trust Wayne over Roddy to stay healthy and produce because Luck is better than Ryan. Makes perfect sense.
He was a decoy in 8 of the 13  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:32 pm : link
Wake up kmed

It's like playing cards with my kids here...
Regarding Peyton  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:35 pm : link
as the #1 pick in leagues that give 6pts per passing TD, he's the high scorer you grab him first and fill in the rest as you go. Most likely people that don't take Peyton first don't trust themselves to find valuable players after the 5th round.

Here's a hint: take Jeremy Hill in the 9th, you won't be disappointed...
White most certainly battled through the ankle early last year  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:35 pm : link
and he exploded in the last 5 games too when he averaged 8 catches and 100 yards per game. Which followed a 3 season stretch in which he averaged over 100 catches per season.
Oh and Matt Ryan sucks is not a good reason to take Wayne over  
kmed : 9/1/2014 8:37 pm : link
White. White has had a 115 catch season with Ryan, a 100 catch season, 92 catches, 85. Clearly that hasn't effected white in the past.
But you can't say he played in 13 games  
Rocky Thompson : 9/1/2014 8:39 pm : link
for fantasy purposes, by the time White "exploded" his owner was probably out of it...


Thanks for the banter kmed, I do listen to some things you suggest


(Zips lips tight and leaves on a high note...)
we have our likes  
Fish : 9/1/2014 9:14 pm : link
And dislikes Bernard. Vs vereen. If you had 12th pick and wound up with these 2 backs, what would you say in a non ppr league.
Just did my 10 team league draft  
nygiants16 : 9/1/2014 10:12 pm : link
pick 3 1 ppr Qb 2 RB 2 wr TE K Def 1 Flex (rb/wr/TE)

QB Newton. Rivers
RB Mccoy, Leveon Bell, Terrence west, Fred Jackson, Christine Michael
WR Julio, Vincent Jackson, Kendall WRight, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin
TE Julius THomas, Rob Gronk
K Dawson
Def Chiefs, Browns

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