G. Rosenthal (NFL.com) Eli = # 20 QB

In comment 11840167 Big Blue Blogger said:

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Probably around where Eli is now. Similar situation: ten-year veteran QB who, a few years earlier, seemed bound for a Hall of Fame career, struggles through a miserable season-and-a-half as the offensive system grows stale and the talent around him slips. It took a couple more years for the Broncos to turn around, but Elway's revival under Fassel was dramatic, although the only other notable skill-position player on the 1993 Broncos was Shannon Sharpe. (They also added Gary Zimmerman to protect Elway's back.)

You're expecting Jomo to actually not revision history (like most Elway narratives, putting him as an all time top five-ish QB, require) to suit his point.

While I'm not saying they're exactly the same quality or same skill sets by any means, when you look at how Elway's stats compare to his peers of his era (not to Eli directly) or actually remember how looked at by his own team as broken he was for a stretch, the general referencing of him in regards to Eli isn't anywhere near as ridiculous, in reality, as some keep trying to claim it is. If Elway's playing career existed in this era, he would get a lot of the same treatment/criticism Eli's gets, minus the LCD stuff about fire or shoulder shrugs.

He isn't one. He has, however, performed like one at times - often under adverse circumstances that would have reduced most QBs to ashes.

Anyway, the point of the Elway precedent isn't that Eli Manning is as good as John Elway - although, by certain measures, he might be. The point is simply that their careers have followed similar arcs, and might continue to do so as Eli - like Elway before him - tries to shake out of a tenth-year slump while switching to a version of the WCO.

Elway won an MVP in 1987. Eli's never been a legitimate candidate (Even though he should have been in 2011).

He was #30 or below last year. He was probably in the 17-22 range the year before. He was around #5 the year before.

3 year average of around #20 + a downward trend. #20 sounds about right.

like Blogger, I'm saying their careers are similar.

Lots of INT's, lots of 4th quarter comebacks, considered the top clutch QB's of their era among their peers.

Obviously their skill sets are different, but their career arc is very similar, except for the fact that Eli has already won his two Superbowls, something Elway didn't do until year 14 and 15.

Hakeem, Shaq and Jabbar are referenced for Tyson Chandler as Elway, Brees and Favre have been for Eli....its so out of the realm of a reasonable comp that it is difficult to have a productive conversation about it

Now if you want to mitigate it by saying "he's also mistake prone like Favre" or "he also had a poor 10th year like Elway" or "he's also Caucasian like those guys", that's fine. I get the point.

Reeves did everything possible to split his own locker room - including the selection of Tommy Maddox (gag, puke) in the first round. Reeves was a good football coach in may ways. Unfortunately, gracious exits were not his strength... as Giant fans would learn over the next four years.

...with a season on the line, as Eli has done to Favre (and Rodgers, and Brady twice), the comparison might not seem so ridiculous.

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let's say JOMO25 : 12:19 pm : link : reply Hakeem, Shaq and Jabbar are referenced for Tyson Chandler as Elway, Brees and Favre have been for Eli....its so out of the realm of a reasonable comp that it is difficult to have a productive conversation about it

If Tyson Chandler had a few rings under his belt and was the main factor in getting them, there could be some valid comparisons. THAT is what people are missing when it comes to Eli.

If we look at the endgame as being championships, then Eli surpasses most of his peers in that area. At the very least, he should be above some of the petty criticisms leveled at him. Super Bowl wins made heroes out of many QB's who would otherwise have been unremarkable.

Bart Starr, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, and Dilfer come to mind as a few. A great example is also Joe Flacco. He's earned more cred for a single SB win than Eli has in two, and let's keep in mind he was MVP of both.

In terms of the ultimate goal in the game, Eli has reached the top twice. no matter how vehemently people want to excuse them away because of luck, helmet catches, "easy" drops by DB's on balls 3 feet over their heads, Eli has actually done what everyone else strives for. That doesn't make him above criticizing individual throws or mistakes, but it sure should elevate him from being lumped in as an ordinary QB. Joe Namath made a career off of a prediction and a flair for the spotlight while eli gets shit on by his team's fans with frightening regularity.

IMO, it doesn't make somebody a "realist" when they do this - it only makes them look like an ungrateful shithead. And one that appears to spend a lot of time diminishing achievements this franchise has seldom seen.

you're going on and on about how Elway was some all time, gift from god QB from day one and quite frankly, the statistics above don't reflect that.

In fact, here is an article written in 2011 with some interesting comparisons of Elway to his peers and other all time greats:

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So let's look and compare each of their 16 game averages. Elway: 502 attempts, 286 completions, 57% completion, 3,565 yards, 21 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, a 79.9 quarterback rating and 10.3 wins. Montana: 501 attempts, 317 completions, 63% completion, 3,772 yards, 25 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, a 92.3 quarterback rating and 11.4 wins. Rick Stewart/Getty Images So in terms of who was the better regular season quarterback, the stats above show it's without a doubt Joe Montana. Montana was better in every way: His completion percentage was much higher, he averaged four more touchdowns and three fewer picks, had a way higher quarterback rating and had a higher winning percentage. You would have to be a fool to say Elway was better in the regular season.

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As we all know the regular season isn't just what matters; for quarterbacks it's about the playoffs. So let's compare their playoff stats. This should be interesting. Elway: 22 games, 651 attempts, 355 completions, 54.5% completion, 4,964 yards, 27 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, a 79.7 quarterback rating and a 14-8 record. Montana: 23 games, 734 attempts, 460 completions, 62.7% completion, 5,772 yards, 45 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, a 95.6 quarterback rating and a 16-7 record. Montana, who was clearly the better regular season quarterback, only improved his game when it came to the playoffs. And Elway, who's supposed to be this great winner and big-game quarterback, was virtually identical in both the regular season and in the playoffs.

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But for a quarterback it's all about one game: the Super Bowl. And obviously Elway was a stud in the big game, right? Well, let's compare Super Bowl stats between the two. Elway: five games, 152 attempts, 76 completions, 50% completion, 1,128 yards, three touchdowns, eight interceptions, a 59.3 quarterback rating and two Super Bowl victories. Montana: four games, 122 attempts, 83 completions, 68% completion, 1,142 yards, 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions, a 127.8 quarterback rating and four Super Bowl victories. I could not believe it when I calculated those stats. Aside from his last game, Elway wasn't just bad in the Super Bowl, he was god-awful. Montana was just as great as Elway was awful—he shined the brightest in the big game. Montana had more touchdown passes (five) in his last Super Bowl then Elway did in all five of his. Montana never threw a pick in the Super Bowl, while Elway threw at least one in every game. Montana's completion percentage in 18 percent higher and his quarterback rating more than doubles Elway's.

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I'm not just trying to prove Elway isn't the greatest ever; I'm also trying to prove he's the most overrated athlete of all time. Most people probably have Elway as a top three to five all-time quarterback. Well I have him at No. 10, behind Montana, Unitas, Brady, Manning, Dan Marino, Steve Young, Graham, Sammy Baugh and Brett Favre. Out of those 10 guys Elway is the only one who was never named the first-team All-Pro quarterback. Elway and Marino are the only two of those 10 players without multiple MVP awards, and in 1987 when Elway won the award it should have been Jerry Rice's. Of the seven Super Bowl-era quarterbacks on my list, Elway easily has the worst completion percentage at 56.9 percent. That percentage is barely above the three non-Super Bowl-era quarterbacks (Baugh, Graham and Unitas, who played in the SB era but was past his prime), but the difference is anything above 50 percent was good back in the day. Elway, Unitas, and Baugh are the only three with quarterback ratings under 80, but Unitas and Baugh had very good quarterback ratings for their time, unlike Elway.

Since Brett Favre is mentioned in this thread, I'll point out that the author goes on to show how Brett Favre was also better than John Elway in a similar fashion.

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what to tell you.

They were viewed similarly. History has been kind to John Elway. Let's see how it plays out for Eli.

In comment 11839936 kepler20 said:

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Tannehill RG3 Foles CK Flacco all decisively above eli? No thanks. Eli belongs in the middle of the league. There's no shot i'd take any of those guys I mentioned up top over him. Flacco and Eli are basically guys that suffer the same faults, and every other QB listed above just plain sucks or is mediocre and has never improved his teammates.

Notice he didn't say "The RG3 of 2012 was the outlier of his career. We don't expect to see him get back to that level."

who is considered the best of the same time period, Joe Montana, one could compare Eli to Tom Brady and get similar results.

BBI has been the past few years, it isn't really out of the realm to think that if the Giants and Eli had the same results as the Pats, a lot of fuckheads would be complaining that Eli can't get it done anymore, that Coughlin can't win the big one, and that it would be time to look at Nassib as the future.

We'd have multiple threads talking about postseason disappointments and no rings in 10 years, and that we wish we had the success of the team that would have beaten us twice in 2007 and 2011.

.

In comment 11840688 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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Quote: let's say JOMO25 : 12:19 pm : link : reply Hakeem, Shaq and Jabbar are referenced for Tyson Chandler as Elway, Brees and Favre have been for Eli....its so out of the realm of a reasonable comp that it is difficult to have a productive conversation about it If Tyson Chandler had a few rings under his belt and was the main factor in getting them, there could be some valid comparisons. THAT is what people are missing when it comes to Eli. If we look at the endgame as being championships, then Eli surpasses most of his peers in that area. At the very least, he should be above some of the petty criticisms leveled at him. Super Bowl wins made heroes out of many QB's who would otherwise have been unremarkable. Bart Starr, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, and Dilfer come to mind as a few. A great example is also Joe Flacco. He's earned more cred for a single SB win than Eli has in two, and let's keep in mind he was MVP of both. In terms of the ultimate goal in the game, Eli has reached the top twice. no matter how vehemently people want to excuse them away because of luck, helmet catches, "easy" drops by DB's on balls 3 feet over their heads, Eli has actually done what everyone else strives for. That doesn't make him above criticizing individual throws or mistakes, but it sure should elevate him from being lumped in as an ordinary QB. Joe Namath made a career off of a prediction and a flair for the spotlight while eli gets shit on by his team's fans with frightening regularity. IMO, it doesn't make somebody a "realist" when they do this - it only makes them look like an ungrateful shithead. And one that appears to spend a lot of time diminishing achievements this franchise has seldom seen.

Actually, Bart Starr was a great QB..One of the best clutch QBs ever imv..

In comment 11840726 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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BBI has been the past few years, it isn't really out of the realm to think that if the Giants and Eli had the same results as the Pats, a lot of fuckheads would be complaining that Eli can't get it done anymore, that Coughlin can't win the big one, and that it would be time to look at Nassib as the future. We'd have multiple threads talking about postseason disappointments and no rings in 10 years, and that we wish we had the success of the team that would have beaten us twice in 2007 and 2011.

They're saying that now on BBI

In his first ten years, Elway threw MORE INT's than TD's 3 times (4 times if you don't count his rookie season). He also threw the same amount or one less INT as TD's 3 times.

Eli's thrown more INT's that TD's once (twice if you count his rookie season).

Who is this all time quarterback from Day One everybody is remembering here?

Bart Starr's rings and his "clutch" play is gone. That's sort of what people are trying to do with Eli.

"If he didn't have two rings...."

Well go fuck yourself - he does!

SB rings and he was just run of the mill

people try to do that to Eli on a regular basis.

When you reach the pinnacle of the sport twice and it was at your hands where the success predominately laid, it should elevate you above being "average" or "mediocre" or any other arguments used in the guise of shitting on him.

You can't take away titles and the only time people try to do that are when they inexplicably want to tear somebody down.

The frequency of that happening on BBI absolutely baffles me, but it also gives insight on why i think so many people here are football morons.

History will be kinder to Eli than most of his own fans have been.

In comment 11840802 Britt in VA said:

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History will be kinder to Eli than most of his own fans have been.

I completely agree with this.

the Elway to Eli comparison, as far as how careers were headed, several times.

Of course, many on here thought I was saying Eli was as good or better than Elway lol.....

The fact is, they were trying to run Elway out of Denver back then. Had he won two SB's, he probably would be getting the pass Eli is sorta getting now.........

to top it off, wasn't Tommy Maddox the man pegged to replace the great John Elway back then??

TOMMY MADDOX????

and Eli plays in an offensive era, then Elway gets the nod. Sorry guys. And Elways superior athleticism suggests his staying power is better too.

Eli should definitely be higher than #20, but not that much and not enough that we shouldn't be concerned.

they played in. Elway once had over 600 pass attempts in a year. Eli hasn't.

Let's not make it seem like Elway ran the single wing here.

Whenever Elway played a full season, he often had the same or more pass attempts as Eli.

that's what matters, not "era's".

and tell me what you see.

Forget comparing him to his peers, or Eli.

Just look at his first ten years statistically and tell me what you see.

But to chose him over Andrew Luck (best QB without a ring IMO)for 2014 doesn't sound so smart.

otherwise on this:

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And Eli's 2 SB MVPs mean his will be immortalized

Doesn't sound like too many want to immortalize him lately.

What do you see looking at Elway's first 10 years? What would you label this player?

What have you done for me lately?

Eli 85-66, 56%

Elway 89-52, 63%

than TDs?

over 10 years is f'n good

Superbowl Wins:

Eli: 2/2 100%
Elway: 0/3 0%

In comment 11840918 WideRight said:

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Eli 85-66, 56% Elway 89-52, 63%

So Elway basically won four total more games than Eli over the same time period, but Eli is penalized because he played more?

Anybody who wins 63% of their games over 10 years in the NFL is FUCKING good.

If you want to think Eli is as good as Elway go right ahead. I like to think he's good too. But he's not 63% fucking good.

What I would do if Eli did that is not printable.

But thats very unlikely to happen, agree or disagree? And why?

unlikely to happen? Because of Eli's inability or because it is tough these days to have a winning % like that?

FMIC nails it.

In comment 11840910 Britt in VA said:

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What do you see looking at Elway's first 10 years? What would you label this player?

His stats aren't impressive. Neither were Aikman's. And I don't think Eli's stats demonstrate the quality of player he is.

I can't tell what you're arguing here. Is it that Elway is wildly overrated, Eli is just as good as Elway, or that Elway's ascension in the back half of his career is an example of what Eli will do for us over the next 5-8 years?

In comment 11840979 WideRight said:

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FMIC nails it.

That was an either/or question...

way to take away my credit there!

that Eli and Elways careers are comparable at this point.

And that anybody labeling Elway an all time great while labeling Eli as having a mediocre career is not viewing the overall picture.

I think Elway/Favre/Warner are all great examples of elite QBs that had a couple bad years in the middle where people doubted them. Eli's experiencing the same thing here - his struggles aren't unprecedent.

The burden of proof for Eli to be 'done' is enormously high. He'd have to be pretty fucking bad over the next two years for me to think it's time to move on from him. I think he bounces back.

In comment 11840998 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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way to take away my credit there!

Haha!

In comment 11841006 Britt in VA said:

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that Eli and Elways careers are comparable at this point. And that anybody labeling Elway an all time great while labeling Eli as having a mediocre career is not viewing the overall picture.

Elway had an MVP, which I think is a key differentiator. Based on this and Pro Bowls, etc., it seems like Elway was a top 5 QB according to consensus (relative to peers) - Eli's never been thought of that way.

Elway had a league MVP, Eli had two Superbowl wins and MVP's.

It's not like the scales are heavily weighted one way or the other.

show what is to come.
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