NFT: SCOTLAND thread

have it razor close with NO winning. Betting shops have made NO the favorite as well.

Regardless, I hope the people get it right. These are difficult times without making them even more difficult.

on the news in relation to these current events I am gonna flip out.

and their proposed petroleum economy is flimsy at best, like all other oil-based economies. No is the best choice even though there is a romantic appeal for independence

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Trainspotting - ( New Window )

either way things will change. Additional powers will be delegated to the Scottish parliament. Economically it doesn't make a ton of sense, but there is a political and social component to identity as well. The problem is that some of the most important events in Scottish history were experienced as part of Britain, namely the two world wars and the Napoleonic Wars before that. No easy answers, and as Gary said on the other thread it's a bit discomforting that 50% +1 of eligible voters can decide to do something so important as to cut 300+ year old ties.

affect the UK and Scotland? Does this vote have any teeth?

well played!

In comment 11869321 mrvax said:

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affect the UK and Scotland? Does this vote have any teeth?

Yes. Westminster said it would accept the results of the referendum, and some sort of divorce negotiation would then occur. Scotland would retain the queen as the titular head and be a part of the Commonwealth, but oil revenues and the fate of the armed forces will be two of the biggest sticking points.

YES would be a mistake that would be hard - and humiliating - to undo.

In comment 11869341 RB^2 said:

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YES would be a mistake that would be hard - and humiliating - to undo.

It's not that it would necessarily be a mistake. It's just that there could be some short and medium-term pain prior to them hitting their stride. And "stride" may not be in the first rank of European nations.

In comment 11869321 mrvax said:

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affect the UK and Scotland? Does this vote have any teeth?

Cameron becomes the most infamous PM since Chamberlain since he'll be held responsible for losing Great Britain if Yes wins. He'll be subject to a no-confidence vote almost immediately. If No wins Great Britain remains united and Ed Miliband (Labour opposition) can pretty much start measuring the drapes for 10 Downing next year as Cameron is still unpopular and Scotland is devoid of Conservatives. Labour will win some seats back from the SNP in Scotland and take a lot of marginal Tory seats in England.

For Scotland, who will fund their part of the UK debt in case of a Yes vote? All the Scottish banks said they are hightailing it out of there. Their oil plans are flimsy at best and the rump UK would demand any oil profits in exchange for funding some of the debt. There are also noises out of London that they will not allow Scotland to use the pound sterling, which means Scotland will be forced to go to Brussels with hat in hand to join the euro or develop their own currency. The euro makes them vulnerable to Merkel's whims which is worse than their current situation and a new currency will be worthless compared to either the pound or euro. The EU won't be fond of taking in another country with debt. Other countries with separatist movements are also upset; Spain explicitly said it will reject Scotland's admission as they will have Catalan and Basque problems if Scotland votes yes.

that these threats have more to do with the bump in the "Yes" poll numbers than anything else. Scotland has an educated populace and plenty of other things going for it, the idea that the entire world will come crashing down inside of three years is fanciful.

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LOL!!

ha!

population and no comparitive economic advantage.

that independence would lead to an increase in the price of Scotch.

People with relatives in Ireland, Japan and Tennessee are all voting "yes."

I have in all of this. Let's assume Scotland does leave. What happens at that point when 40%+ of the country wants to go back? Can parts of the new country vote to leave Scotland?

That was always the thought in Canada if Quebec were to leave. The city of Montreal, First Nations communities, and various others likely would have attempted to high tail it out of the "new" nation. For example could the Shetland Islands leave Scotland right after this?

Can that actually happen, and do any think it would?

In comment 11869421 Rob in NYC said:

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population and no comparitive economic advantage.

It has a degree of manufacturing, financial services, oil, agriculture/forestry and fishing, along with tourism. The problem is cutting through the hyperbole and trying to guess what would and wouldn't leave. Defense-related industries likely go. Financial services probably lose a bit too, maybe as much as they're threatening (maybe more) but once the concerns are smoothed over maybe less. Oil is an open question.

The reason the Yes vote has a real shot is because the Scots HATE the Tories. Only a single representative from Scotland in the House of Commons is a conservative. Nearly all of the rest are Labor or Liberal Democrat.

If you can;t discuss results, you can still discuss exit polls
and the like I would think.

In comment 11869461 manh george said:

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The reason the Yes vote has a real shot is because the Scots HATE the Tories. Only a single representative from Scotland in the House of Commons is a conservative. Nearly all of the rest are Labor or Liberal Democrat.

And that's not minor either. Part of the reason Labour is fighting so hard to keep the Scots is because they know an exit is a ticket to long-term minority. They consistently return at most a couple Tory MPs to Westminster. Being governed by a party that neither you nor your neighbors (nor the vast majority of your countrymen) voted for is problematic and heightens the Scottish identity.

In comment 11869332 Dunedin81 said:

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In comment 11869321 mrvax said: Scotland would retain the queen as the titular head and be a part of the Commonwealth

Not classy talking about the Queen like that....smh....;)

In comment 11869479 Dunedin81 said:

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In comment 11869461 manh george said: Quote: The reason the Yes vote has a real shot is because the Scots HATE the Tories. Only a single representative from Scotland in the House of Commons is a conservative. Nearly all of the rest are Labor or Liberal Democrat. And that's not minor either. Part of the reason Labour is fighting so hard to keep the Scots is because they know an exit is a ticket to long-term minority. They consistently return at most a couple Tory MPs to Westminster. Being governed by a party that neither you nor your neighbors (nor the vast majority of your countrymen) voted for is problematic and heightens the Scottish identity.

That sounds like a ridiculous argument to me. That's like if Texas wanted to secede because the Dems controlled the White House or Congress. It's not like it's permanent.

are allowed to vote in this referendum.

As I said in the other thread, regardless of outcome, I wish Scotland well as I have very found memories of my time there.

fight and you may die. Run, and you'll live... at least a while. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take... OUR FREEDOM!

fond memories, that is.

Texas had a few years of independence. Scotland had several hundred and has a long if selective memory.

The Scots have an independent national identity, and they have HATED the conservatives since at least Thatcher's election, which means 35 years or more. It's structural at this point. If Great Britain loses Scotland, Labor becomes a near-permanent minority. But, as noted in the link, it's morew complicated than that. The Tories are aslo facing a threat from the right:

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But the Tories have an additional factor working against them: United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip), the far-right, anti-European Union, anti-immigration party that has surged to prominence in the past few years is already beginning to split the Tory vote. A Guardian analysis of 2013 local elections showed that in many districts, Ukip took enough votes away from the Tories to ensure that other parties won. And that wasn’t an isolated incident: A YouGov study showed that the Tories are losing six times more voters to Ukip than Labour, who are also gaining seats from the struggling Lib-Dems.

Link - ( New Window )

not sure what the specifics are with regards to this law. I just read it off the BBC site I linked.

there are LOTS of twitter handles still available. Basically @Scotland(anything) can still be had. In 12 hours, they might all be gone.

In comment 11869429 manh george said:

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that independence would lead to an increase in the price of Scotch. People with relatives in Ireland, Japan and Tennessee are all voting "yes."

Just got a couple of $60 plus shipping bottles of JW Platinum (courtesy of the earlier informative scotch thread) -- just in case.

Certainly NI won't be far behind, perhaps in anothe decade when the demographic shift creates a nationalist majority. How does this effect Spain? Are they forced into a bidnign referendum in the Basque region?

There's really no comparison to be made to Scotland. NI isn't going to become an independent country, and a majority of the population would never, ever agree to join the Republic of Ireland.

In comment 11869429 manh george said:

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that independence would lead to an increase in the price of Scotch. People with relatives in Ireland, Japan and Tennessee are all voting "yes."

The Japanese own virtually all of the distilleries. They're whiskey-drinking fools!

than the Basques.

If Scotland breaks from the UK, will Shetland then try to break off from Scotland? Shetland has a good bit of the oil Scotland is counting on.
Link - ( New Window )

Shetland is physically much closer to Scotland than to England (actually closer to Norway than to England). They have no direct flights to England. It seems more like a threat and a negotiating ploy than anything else.

Th' clans cannae be trusted. Th' sassenach has swatched uir lain an' raped uir kimmers. A vote ay nae is a vote against scootlund.

another socialist/labor-led economic basket case.

More power to them.

Stay tuned...

widespread reports of voter turnout numbers of 85-89%.

we'll see how accurate these polls were.

"Aye, fight and you may die. Run, and you'll live... at least a while. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take... OUR FREEDOM! Alba gu bràth!"-William Wallace.

that's a blow to the yes movement, a stronghold for them showing 10% lower turnout than most areas.

First results from a small area in, 46% yes and 54% no in Clackmannanshire. This may be shaping up like the Quebec vote, a late public surge for yes but an overall close win for no.

In comment 11870298 SanFranGiantsFan said:

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"Aye, fight and you may die. Run, and you'll live... at least a while. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take... OUR FREEDOM! Alba gu bràth!"-William Wallace.

I have that tattooed on me, even though I know its a ripoff of Erin Go Bragh