I know this forum discussed this play ad nauseam more than 2 years ago, but I wanted to hear your thoughts (I'm actually a Patriots fan).
Here are my thoughts:
First of all, I still don't see how Welker would've scored a touchdown on that particular play. Second of all, Brady's CLEARLY back-shouldering the pass to keep it away from Kenny Phillips (the Giants' safety) so that he couldn't break up or intercept the pass (he was 5-6 yards away from where the ball would normally be thrown, and it was a pass that travelled 26-27 yards through the air). Bill O'Brien (the then-offensive coach), Eric Mangini, Steve Mariucci, and SEVERAL other players and coaches have repeatedly said this. The reason why the pass LOOKED crappy was because Welker struggled adjusting to the pass (because Welker was expecting it to be thrown inside, not outside). Tough play overall (and not a drop), but Welker probably should've come down with it (Welker even said so himself). Honestly, the pass wasn't crappy. On a scale of 1 to 10, I'd give it a 5. Anyway, it DEFINITELY wouldn't have been ballgame, as there were STILL 4 minutes left in the game, and the Giants had 1 remaining timeout and the two minute warning. Still enough time for Eli to do his magic (as I've learned all too well).
The link in this thread provides great evidence of everything I just said.
Brady/Welker Incompletion - (
New Window )
In time, you will love again.
In time, you will love again.
Do my arguments seem valid, though?
He blames Brady and O'Brien/McDaniels.
because he says on that play they asked Welker to do something he hadn't done all year. He was never running that seam play. That was a gronkowski play, but gronk couldn't do it.
I don't care too much to debate it, but I like making him think about it, if Welker catches that pass the game is pretty much over. the Patriots odds of winning at that point went from like 97% to 50% by not converting - or something like that.
Vertical routes are not Welker’s game, which is why the Patriots seldom throw those to him. Welker’s bread-and-butter (85.7 percent worth) is on the lower end: the flat, slant, comeback, curl, out, dig, and various quick passes. He either runs away from man coverage or sits in the zone and takes the hit. And he does it better than anyone.
Vertical receivers have long arms and big hands. Welker has neither.
On vertical routes, Brady connected with Welker on 15 passes for 508 yards and two touchdowns (there was one penalty). Three of Welker’s biggest plays - the 99-yard touchdown in Week 1, the 73-yarder against the Jets in Week 5, and the 41-yard touchdown against the Eagles - came on vertical routes. But all three were busted coverages with no safety over the top. Welker never had to break stride.
]Brady threw only four back-shoulder passes downfield to Welker all season. Not one was thrown high. They all hit Welker in the stomach or high in the chest.
There were six plays similar to the one in the Super Bowl during the season: Week 1 at Miami, Week 4 at Oakland, Week 6 against Dallas, Week 9 against the Giants, Week 15 against the Dolphins, and in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens.
On the four occasions when Welker was in space, the ball was thrown over the inside shoulder even with a safety nearby. In Week 9, against the Giants, Welker had to go low and take a hit from Phillips on the same route.
Twice there was tight man coverage, against the Raiders and Cowboys, and Brady threw back-shoulder with the Oakland reception a spectacular hookup at the 1-yard line.
“Back-shoulder throws are in tight coverage, either a trail technique or a real aggressive man-to-man technique,’’ the quarterbacks coach said.
“When you’re in space like that, you expect to catch the ball over your inside shoulder going toward the goal line. You hope the quarterback keeps you isolated away from the safety by moving him with his eyes, but you don’t back-shoulder that throw.’’
The other issue is Welker catching high passes in general. He didn’t have to do it very much, and he doesn’t make the acrobatic catches he used to.
Before the Super Bowl, Welker was thrown 10 passes on which he had to leave his feet to make the catch and he caught eight of them.
On seven of the passes (six receptions), Welker jumped straight up from a standstill.
The other three were much more difficult.
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2012/02/08/tough_spot_for_brady_welker/?page=full - ( New Window )
My sentiments exactly. IF it wasn't for that bullshit holding call that that fat piece of shit Wilfork faked, then the Giants would have scored on that drive in the 2nd Quarter. Jacobs and the OL were in a groove at that point, and were doing what they wanted on the ground. That game could have been over at the half in favor of the Giants if that bullshit holding call wasn't made (Wilfork even admitted it on the field).
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Of the 195 passes from Brady to Welker (141 receptions), Welker was targeted on only 28 (14.3 percent) of the vertical variety (fade, post, corner, and a slant-and-go). Only 17 were a version of that fade route (8.7 percent).
Vertical routes are not Welker’s game, which is why the Patriots seldom throw those to him. Welker’s bread-and-butter (85.7 percent worth) is on the lower end: the flat, slant, comeback, curl, out, dig, and various quick passes. He either runs away from man coverage or sits in the zone and takes the hit. And he does it better than anyone.
Vertical receivers have long arms and big hands. Welker has neither.
On vertical routes, Brady connected with Welker on 15 passes for 508 yards and two touchdowns (there was one penalty). Three of Welker’s biggest plays - the 99-yard touchdown in Week 1, the 73-yarder against the Jets in Week 5, and the 41-yard touchdown against the Eagles - came on vertical routes. But all three were busted coverages with no safety over the top. Welker never had to break stride.
]Brady threw only four back-shoulder passes downfield to Welker all season. Not one was thrown high. They all hit Welker in the stomach or high in the chest.
There were six plays similar to the one in the Super Bowl during the season: Week 1 at Miami, Week 4 at Oakland, Week 6 against Dallas, Week 9 against the Giants, Week 15 against the Dolphins, and in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens.
On the four occasions when Welker was in space, the ball was thrown over the inside shoulder even with a safety nearby. In Week 9, against the Giants, Welker had to go low and take a hit from Phillips on the same route.
Twice there was tight man coverage, against the Raiders and Cowboys, and Brady threw back-shoulder with the Oakland reception a spectacular hookup at the 1-yard line.
“Back-shoulder throws are in tight coverage, either a trail technique or a real aggressive man-to-man technique,’’ the quarterbacks coach said.
“When you’re in space like that, you expect to catch the ball over your inside shoulder going toward the goal line. You hope the quarterback keeps you isolated away from the safety by moving him with his eyes, but you don’t back-shoulder that throw.’’
The other issue is Welker catching high passes in general. He didn’t have to do it very much, and he doesn’t make the acrobatic catches he used to.
Before the Super Bowl, Welker was thrown 10 passes on which he had to leave his feet to make the catch and he caught eight of them.
On seven of the passes (six receptions), Welker jumped straight up from a standstill.
The other three were much more difficult.
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2012/02/08/tough_spot_for_brady_welker/?page=full - ( New Window )
While I respect Greg Bedard and all the effort that he puts into watching NFL game tape, both Eric Mangini and Bill O'Brien (both with actual experience in the NFL) made much stronger and convincing arguments. Basically, based on the coverage, Brady threw it where the Giants couldn't get to it. Because Welker was expecting the pass to be inside, he struggled adjusting to the back shoulder throw (hence the "acrobatic" movement on his part). As a result-Bill O'Brien said it perfectly-"it's a really, really tough throw and a really, really tough catch." Just a tough play overall to convert (and one that neither was used to making). Still catchable, though.
I disagree. Being 5-6 yards away from where a deep pass would normally go and trying to break up or intercept it is definitely doable, especially for a safety with the arm length and speed of someone like Kenny Phillips.
I mean, in one game William Moore (Falcons safety) was able to get from the middle of the field to the sideline in order intercept a deep pass (30-40 yards) from Drew Brees. You're underestimating the range and speed of NFL safeties.
Which is why the correct thing to do is to blame NEITHER player. It's not Brady's fault that he's trying to make a safer throw on that play (based on the Giants coverage), and it's not Welker's fault because it didn't require a normal amount of effort to catch that back-shoulder pass (he had to turn and adjust his body to catch it).
Brady did adjust the throw to the outside, and it was the correct adjustment, since the only deep coverage (Phillips) was near the hash mark. Brady put the ball where no Giant could make a play. But he didn't need to throw it quite that far outside to take Phillips out of the play, and he didn't need to throw it quite that high, since neither of the two underneath defenders - Rolle/Webster - was anywhere near Welker. There was a huge hole amid the three Giants; Brady could have just dropped the ball into Welker's belly at the 24 rather than extending him fully at the 22. No chance for YAC if Welker has to slow down, but he gets the first down and the game is pretty much over.
Instead, Brady did what all QBs are trained to do: he put the ball where his guy - and only his guy - could get near it. Great read, and a decent throw, but not the best play in that particular situation, where a first down - even an ugly one - probably equals a championship.
Freeze at :27, and look where Phillips is going. - ( New Window )
My thought was that while it was catchable, it was far from a gimme that some make it out to be.
Oh, and that "almost INT" on the sideline? That had a 10% chance of being caught inbounds.
Giants > Pats. Great game though. Games.
This should have would have crap is horseshit. The game unfolded as it did with plays made and plays left on the field.
Cowboys and Tony Romo had a similar play a few weeks prior to the Super Bowl that would have ended the Giants seasons.
Even 4th and 18 Fewell's defense could not get a stop to win the Super Bowl. Instead Giants had to survive a Hail Mary pass that came too close for comfort.
Watching that play, there was no pressure on Brady, he had a good pocket, Phillips was not going to the ball.....he throws it right at him, and the Pats, worse case scenario, get a fg and take time off the clock(they score a td, and it's over)....and sets the stage for Eli to do it again.....
plus that phantom holding call when jacobs took it into scoring position would have put the game away before this even happened
Cowboys and Tony Romo had a similar play a few weeks prior to the Super Bowl that would have ended the Giants seasons.
Even 4th and 18 Fewell's defense could not get a stop to win the Super Bowl. Instead Giants had to survive a Hail Mary pass that came too close for comfort.
That was on Aaron Ross, not Fewell, watch the play. Ross SUCKS and almost cost us the season.
Was the holding call an important, momentum-changing play? Certainly. But let's be real. If the Jacobs run stands, the Giants have 1st and 10 at the NE 36 with a 9-3 lead and about 4:30 left in the half. Instead, they face 3rd and 10 at their own 45. Eli throws an incompletion and the Giants have to punt. What's often forgotten is that Weatherford pinned the Patriots at their own four on the ensuing punt, and Brady drove 96 yards to put the Pats ahead at halftime.
There's no way to know what would have happened in those last few minutes if the flag had been picked up. Maybe the Giants would have drained the clock, scored a TD and gone to the locker room up 16-3. Or maybe they would have stalled and punted anyway, or missed a field goal, or thrown a pick, giving the Pats better field position for their go-ahead drive. Even at 16-3, the game would have been far from over. Remember, the Pats sliced through the Giants again at the start of the third quarter, to make it 17-9. To say Jacobs's first down would have given the Giants a decisive edge, you have to put a lot of emphasis on momentum, and disregard what happened on New England's next two possessions.
It's Brady's fault it didn't go for a touchdown. If Brady threw a better ball (maybe hit him in stride), and if Welker catches it, it goes for a touchdown and the game is very likely over at that point. I don't think Phillips was in position to stop it. That would have been 2 scores down with 4:00 left to go.
a FG would have forced the Giants to score a TD to win.
it wouldn't have been 100% dead over, but pretty much over.
"I got it! I got it!"
That is a catch you would like an NFL WR to make, but that is a difficult catch after the adjustment he has to make.
But if they get that first down, they go right to burning the clock and kicking the field goal. Could the Giants have then mounted a long drive for a touchdown? Maybe, but miracles usually don't happen more than once every 10 years....
Eli did march down the field and score a touchdown. In fact he did it too quickly thus evidenced by the sitdown touchdown by Bradshaw.
However, this is the what if game and based on assumptions so ...
the same thing happen to Cruz this past week on 3rd and 6
Brady did adjust the throw to the outside, and it was the correct adjustment, since the only deep coverage (Phillips) was near the hash mark. Brady put the ball where no Giant could make a play. But he didn't need to throw it quite that far outside to take Phillips out of the play, and he didn't need to throw it quite that high, since neither of the two underneath defenders - Rolle/Webster - was anywhere near Welker. There was a huge hole amid the three Giants; Brady could have just dropped the ball into Welker's belly at the 24 rather than extending him fully at the 22. No chance for YAC if Welker has to slow down, but he gets the first down and the game is pretty much over.
Instead, Brady did what all QBs are trained to do: he put the ball where his guy - and only his guy - could get near it. Great read, and a decent throw, but not the best play in that particular situation, where a first down - even an ugly one - probably equals a championship. Freeze at :27, and look where Phillips is going. - ( New Window )
You can't assume that he would've done the EXACT same thing if the pass was thrown inside. He's favoring the left hash mark, so Phillips could've definitely reacted differently if the pass was thrown inside. He definitely had a shot.
plus that phantom holding call when jacobs took it into scoring position would have put the game away before this even happened
Judging by the coverage and what Brady was trying to do on that play, a 5 seems about right. I'd give the throw a 3 if Brady had intended to throw it inside but it had gone outside instead.
And both of those 2 are exceptional players.
it's fun.
the rest (back shoulder, front shoulder, KP, Rolle, Ross, etc) is noise.
I'm not saying that it was well-thrown ball. I'm just saying that it wasn't a poorly-thrown ball. Hence why I gave the throw a 5 on a scale of 1 to 10.
Brady tried to mitigate his risk by throwing a back shoulder pass but unfortunately he threw it high to a short receiver with short arms. Plus, Welker should not have anticipated the back shoulder fade because as I pointed out in the article, he rarely gets those kinds of throws. It isn't his game, and it isn't in his skillset.
That Welker was able to twist his body at full speed and reach back to even get his hannds on it should be used to praise Welker's ability to adjust so quickly, rather than criticize him for not actually catching it.
That said, it would have taken a perfect throw to hit Welker right where the ball needed to be in that defense. Just the way he twisted his body to even get two hands on the ball made the catch very, very tough.
It would have taken a perfect throw. Nearly impossible to pull off.
Except the other QB did make a perfect throw, on the very next possession, a throw also nearly impossible to pull off. Still awesome to think of that nearly impossible and perfect throw to this day...
Brady tried to mitigate his risk by throwing a back shoulder pass but unfortunately he threw it high to a short receiver with short arms. Plus, Welker should not have anticipated the back shoulder fade because as I pointed out in the article, he rarely gets those kinds of throws. It isn't his game, and it isn't in his skillset.
That Welker was able to twist his body at full speed and reach back to even get his hannds on it should be used to praise Welker's ability to adjust so quickly, rather than criticize him for not actually catching it.
that's a lot of words. there isn't a football wide receiver on the planet who would agree with you.
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that because the ball hit Welker in the hands that he should have caught it is nonsense. It is an error in perception and the same faulty judgment that certain baseball fans use when they watch infielders try to make plays on ground balls and assign errors to great fielders who at least get a glove on a ball that poorer fielders would not have even gotten to.
Brady tried to mitigate his risk by throwing a back shoulder pass but unfortunately he threw it high to a short receiver with short arms. Plus, Welker should not have anticipated the back shoulder fade because as I pointed out in the article, he rarely gets those kinds of throws. It isn't his game, and it isn't in his skillset.
That Welker was able to twist his body at full speed and reach back to even get his hannds on it should be used to praise Welker's ability to adjust so quickly, rather than criticize him for not actually catching it.
that's a lot of words. there isn't a football wide receiver on the planet who would agree with you.
No way to prove/disprove that pjcas. I agree with PaulBlake say only a superior WR could have even got hands on that throw. I'd expect that Megatron makes that catch, few others.
It seemed to me that Welker may have been resistant to the new technology and was using the old "battling glove" style that the QBs use.
Don't really care......Giants won their 4th!!!! But thought I'd share that very random observation.
Who cares. It could have been caught. It wasn't. Giants put themselves in position to win the super bowl and they did win the super bowl. THat's all that matters.
Who cares. It could have been caught. It wasn't. Giants put themselves in position to win the super bowl and they did win the super bowl. THat's all that matters.
Disagree. Giant fans don't give 2 shits about that play but I imagine Pat fans would be like "what if"...
If they couldnt convert 3rd and long in the first half, why should we expect them to get it together with the the Supe on the line...
No sympathy from me. No Giants fan should feel guilty about this play, just because a couple Brady and WW finally ran out of luck with 5 to play in the season.
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is doing so to tweek giants fans. That's all they have is to bitch about that play..
Who cares. It could have been caught. It wasn't. Giants put themselves in position to win the super bowl and they did win the super bowl. THat's all that matters.
Disagree. Giant fans don't give 2 shits about that play but I imagine Pat fans would be like "what if"...
yep, I don't care about the play and if anything it should make it sting even more for Pats fans. Many of my friends haven't watched a second of the highlights of XLII or XLVI and claim they never will.
Me, I can watch them all day and the smile will never leave my face, even the bad plays.
Brady tried to mitigate his risk by throwing a back shoulder pass but unfortunately he threw it high to a short receiver with short arms. Plus, Welker should not have anticipated the back shoulder fade because as I pointed out in the article, he rarely gets those kinds of throws. It isn't his game, and it isn't in his skillset.
That Welker was able to twist his body at full speed and reach back to even get his hannds on it should be used to praise Welker's ability to adjust so quickly, rather than criticize him for not actually catching it.
I'll rephrase my statement and say that Welker definitely COULD have caught it--probably had a 65-75% shot of making it--but it definitely wasn't a given. What's also noteworthy is what Bill O'Brien said regarding that play, and it's pretty valid: "He's trying to paint Wes' outside shoulder to keep it away from Phillips." Fewell does mention that he didn't think Phillips had a shot even if the ball was thrown inside, but that's problematic because he's extrapolating (just because Phillips took one particular angle when the ball was thrown outside doesn't mean that he'd take that exact same angle if the ball was thrown inside, especially when he's 5-6 yards away from where the ball would normally be thrown. Also, Welker even said that Brady was "worried about the safety" on that play.
Yes, Welker getting his hands on it is a testament to his ability, but once he gets to that point and it hits him in the hands, he should come down with it.
Having said that, as mentioned earlier, Eli hit Manningham on an insane throw and catch (one that Manningham always struggled with - everyone would rip him for not getting that Toomer toe-tap down)... so WHO GIVES A SHIT! WE PULLED IT THROUGH! LET'S GO GIANTS SB XVLII CHAMPS!
Phillips doesn't start running until Brady throws the pass. It's not like he was already taking that particular angle before Brady threw it. Again, he's favoring the left hash mark, and he could certainly move towards the direction of the ball if it was thrown inside (you can't assume that he'd take the EXACT same angle as he did when he threw it outside).
Practically every player-and many coaches-have repeatedly said this (particularly the good analysts, like Trent Dilfer, Eric Mangini, and Steve Mariucci). Why do so many of the non-players/non-coaches disagree with their statements?
Yes, Welker getting his hands on it is a testament to his ability, but once he gets to that point and it hits him in the hands, he should come down with it.
Having said that, as mentioned earlier, Eli hit Manningham on an insane throw and catch (one that Manningham always struggled with - everyone would rip him for not getting that Toomer toe-tap down)... so WHO GIVES A SHIT! WE PULLED IT THROUGH! LET'S GO GIANTS SB XVLII CHAMPS!
Finally, someone is on my side with this. Thanks for backing me up. Also, it should be worth noting that Brady and Welker never really connected on that type of pass at all while they were both on the Patriots. So, as you said, it's not that surprising that the play resulted in an incompletion.