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Brady/Welker Incompletion Re-Visited

tnick2014 : 9/18/2014 10:40 pm
I know this forum discussed this play ad nauseam more than 2 years ago, but I wanted to hear your thoughts (I'm actually a Patriots fan).



Here are my thoughts:

First of all, I still don't see how Welker would've scored a touchdown on that particular play. Second of all, Brady's CLEARLY back-shouldering the pass to keep it away from Kenny Phillips (the Giants' safety) so that he couldn't break up or intercept the pass (he was 5-6 yards away from where the ball would normally be thrown, and it was a pass that travelled 26-27 yards through the air). Bill O'Brien (the then-offensive coach), Eric Mangini, Steve Mariucci, and SEVERAL other players and coaches have repeatedly said this. The reason why the pass LOOKED crappy was because Welker struggled adjusting to the pass (because Welker was expecting it to be thrown inside, not outside). Tough play overall (and not a drop), but Welker probably should've come down with it (Welker even said so himself). Honestly, the pass wasn't crappy. On a scale of 1 to 10, I'd give it a 5. Anyway, it DEFINITELY wouldn't have been ballgame, as there were STILL 4 minutes left in the game, and the Giants had 1 remaining timeout and the two minute warning. Still enough time for Eli to do his magic (as I've learned all too well).

The link in this thread provides great evidence of everything I just said.
Brady/Welker Incompletion - ( New Window )
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RE: Even if Brady was throwing back-shoulder,  
tnick2014 : 9/19/2014 11:38 am : link
In comment 11870970 Section331 said:
Quote:
it was not a well-thrown ball. Yes,with KP coming over the top, Welker should have anticipated back shoulder, so he shares some of the blame, but I have always thought that it simply wasn't a well-thrown ball.


I'm not saying that it was well-thrown ball. I'm just saying that it wasn't a poorly-thrown ball. Hence why I gave the throw a 5 on a scale of 1 to 10.
If I'm Welker  
JonC : 9/19/2014 11:39 am : link
I'd tell you I should've completed the catch, and wager Welker has said the same.
the idea  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/19/2014 11:40 am : link
that because the ball hit Welker in the hands that he should have caught it is nonsense. It is an error in perception and the same faulty judgment that certain baseball fans use when they watch infielders try to make plays on ground balls and assign errors to great fielders who at least get a glove on a ball that poorer fielders would not have even gotten to.

Brady tried to mitigate his risk by throwing a back shoulder pass but unfortunately he threw it high to a short receiver with short arms. Plus, Welker should not have anticipated the back shoulder fade because as I pointed out in the article, he rarely gets those kinds of throws. It isn't his game, and it isn't in his skillset.

That Welker was able to twist his body at full speed and reach back to even get his hannds on it should be used to praise Welker's ability to adjust so quickly, rather than criticize him for not actually catching it.
Watching the play  
Spyder : 9/19/2014 11:58 am : link
again, it reminds me how I felt watching Brady, with all that time. Where was the pressure? It seemed like he had all day, especially when he made that little crow hop for a little extra.

That said, it would have taken a perfect throw to hit Welker right where the ball needed to be in that defense. Just the way he twisted his body to even get two hands on the ball made the catch very, very tough.

It would have taken a perfect throw. Nearly impossible to pull off.

Except the other QB did make a perfect throw, on the very next possession, a throw also nearly impossible to pull off. Still awesome to think of that nearly impossible and perfect throw to this day...

RE: the idea  
pjcas18 : 9/19/2014 12:06 pm : link
In comment 11870999 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that because the ball hit Welker in the hands that he should have caught it is nonsense. It is an error in perception and the same faulty judgment that certain baseball fans use when they watch infielders try to make plays on ground balls and assign errors to great fielders who at least get a glove on a ball that poorer fielders would not have even gotten to.

Brady tried to mitigate his risk by throwing a back shoulder pass but unfortunately he threw it high to a short receiver with short arms. Plus, Welker should not have anticipated the back shoulder fade because as I pointed out in the article, he rarely gets those kinds of throws. It isn't his game, and it isn't in his skillset.

That Welker was able to twist his body at full speed and reach back to even get his hannds on it should be used to praise Welker's ability to adjust so quickly, rather than criticize him for not actually catching it.


that's a lot of words. there isn't a football wide receiver on the planet who would agree with you.
RE: RE: the idea  
mrvax : 9/19/2014 12:30 pm : link
In comment 11871064 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 11870999 PaulBlakeTSU said:


Quote:


that because the ball hit Welker in the hands that he should have caught it is nonsense. It is an error in perception and the same faulty judgment that certain baseball fans use when they watch infielders try to make plays on ground balls and assign errors to great fielders who at least get a glove on a ball that poorer fielders would not have even gotten to.

Brady tried to mitigate his risk by throwing a back shoulder pass but unfortunately he threw it high to a short receiver with short arms. Plus, Welker should not have anticipated the back shoulder fade because as I pointed out in the article, he rarely gets those kinds of throws. It isn't his game, and it isn't in his skillset.

That Welker was able to twist his body at full speed and reach back to even get his hannds on it should be used to praise Welker's ability to adjust so quickly, rather than criticize him for not actually catching it.



that's a lot of words. there isn't a football wide receiver on the planet who would agree with you.


No way to prove/disprove that pjcas. I agree with PaulBlake say only a superior WR could have even got hands on that throw. I'd expect that Megatron makes that catch, few others.
Was Welker wearing the wrong gloves? Crazy thought, but....  
xxixxv : 9/19/2014 12:36 pm : link
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8266a9c1/article/who-needs-stickum-when-youve-got-sticky-gloves
If that was not a catchable ball or a well thrown ball  
mamamia : 9/19/2014 12:38 pm : link
what are some of the catches that Donnell made last week? Was the Cruz drop a well thrown ball or a catchable ball?
I know my post probably seemed odd, but after watching the gif's, it  
xxixxv : 9/19/2014 12:51 pm : link
Seems like so many players today are making impossible and sometimes one-handed catches. It made me wonder if there were new gloves instituted recently to again, give the offense an advantage. Sure enough, a little search yielded that article. I am old enough to remember when they outlawed "Stick-um". Now it seems that the league condones that advantage.

It seemed to me that Welker may have been resistant to the new technology and was using the old "battling glove" style that the QBs use.

Don't really care......Giants won their 4th!!!! But thought I'd share that very random observation.
PJ  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/19/2014 1:44 pm : link
of course wide receivers wouldn't agree with me. They all have egos / extreme confidence in their abilities (and rightfully so given they are the top sliver of a percent of people who grew up playing football). They always think they can make any catch.
whoever is bringing that play up  
djm : 9/19/2014 1:52 pm : link
is doing so to tweek giants fans. That's all they have is to bitch about that play..

Who cares. It could have been caught. It wasn't. Giants put themselves in position to win the super bowl and they did win the super bowl. THat's all that matters.
RE: whoever is bringing that play up  
mrvax : 9/19/2014 1:57 pm : link
In comment 11871236 djm said:
Quote:
is doing so to tweek giants fans. That's all they have is to bitch about that play..

Who cares. It could have been caught. It wasn't. Giants put themselves in position to win the super bowl and they did win the super bowl. THat's all that matters.


Disagree. Giant fans don't give 2 shits about that play but I imagine Pat fans would be like "what if"...
On that penalty that we KNOW  
NoPeanutz : 9/19/2014 2:04 pm : link
100% without a doubt was bogus (because it's on tape), NE converted a free 3rd and long when they were deep in the hole.

If they couldnt convert 3rd and long in the first half, why should we expect them to get it together with the the Supe on the line...
No sympathy from me. No Giants fan should feel guilty about this play, just because a couple Brady and WW finally ran out of luck with 5 to play in the season.
RE: RE: whoever is bringing that play up  
pjcas18 : 9/19/2014 2:04 pm : link
In comment 11871247 mrvax said:
Quote:
In comment 11871236 djm said:


Quote:


is doing so to tweek giants fans. That's all they have is to bitch about that play..

Who cares. It could have been caught. It wasn't. Giants put themselves in position to win the super bowl and they did win the super bowl. THat's all that matters.



Disagree. Giant fans don't give 2 shits about that play but I imagine Pat fans would be like "what if"...


yep, I don't care about the play and if anything it should make it sting even more for Pats fans. Many of my friends haven't watched a second of the highlights of XLII or XLVI and claim they never will.

Me, I can watch them all day and the smile will never leave my face, even the bad plays.
RE: the idea  
tnick2014 : 9/19/2014 2:29 pm : link
In comment 11870999 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that because the ball hit Welker in the hands that he should have caught it is nonsense. It is an error in perception and the same faulty judgment that certain baseball fans use when they watch infielders try to make plays on ground balls and assign errors to great fielders who at least get a glove on a ball that poorer fielders would not have even gotten to.

Brady tried to mitigate his risk by throwing a back shoulder pass but unfortunately he threw it high to a short receiver with short arms. Plus, Welker should not have anticipated the back shoulder fade because as I pointed out in the article, he rarely gets those kinds of throws. It isn't his game, and it isn't in his skillset.

That Welker was able to twist his body at full speed and reach back to even get his hannds on it should be used to praise Welker's ability to adjust so quickly, rather than criticize him for not actually catching it.


I'll rephrase my statement and say that Welker definitely COULD have caught it--probably had a 65-75% shot of making it--but it definitely wasn't a given. What's also noteworthy is what Bill O'Brien said regarding that play, and it's pretty valid: "He's trying to paint Wes' outside shoulder to keep it away from Phillips." Fewell does mention that he didn't think Phillips had a shot even if the ball was thrown inside, but that's problematic because he's extrapolating (just because Phillips took one particular angle when the ball was thrown outside doesn't mean that he'd take that exact same angle if the ball was thrown inside, especially when he's 5-6 yards away from where the ball would normally be thrown. Also, Welker even said that Brady was "worried about the safety" on that play.
Kind of agree with tnicks here...  
Sonic Youth : 9/19/2014 2:36 pm : link
...tough throw and tough catch. You'd expect great players like Welker and Brady to hold up their end of the bargain, but when you consider they both had tough moves to make, it's no surprise it fell incomplete.

Yes, Welker getting his hands on it is a testament to his ability, but once he gets to that point and it hits him in the hands, he should come down with it.

Having said that, as mentioned earlier, Eli hit Manningham on an insane throw and catch (one that Manningham always struggled with - everyone would rip him for not getting that Toomer toe-tap down)... so WHO GIVES A SHIT! WE PULLED IT THROUGH! LET'S GO GIANTS SB XVLII CHAMPS!
RE: That gif is the first time I saw it in awhile  
tnick2014 : 9/19/2014 2:38 pm : link
In comment 11870718 JOrthman said:
Quote:
and just based on what I see there, Brady didn't need to throw it where he did. None of the Giant Defenders were going to get to the ball based on where they were. They were all running trying to keep up with Welker, therefore no one had the ability to adjust where they would need to to pick it off.


Phillips doesn't start running until Brady throws the pass. It's not like he was already taking that particular angle before Brady threw it. Again, he's favoring the left hash mark, and he could certainly move towards the direction of the ball if it was thrown inside (you can't assume that he'd take the EXACT same angle as he did when he threw it outside).

Practically every player-and many coaches-have repeatedly said this (particularly the good analysts, like Trent Dilfer, Eric Mangini, and Steve Mariucci). Why do so many of the non-players/non-coaches disagree with their statements?
Sonic Youth: XVLII?  
Big Blue Blogger : 9/19/2014 2:40 pm : link
What's Latin for dyslexia?
RE: Kind of agree with tnicks here...  
tnick2014 : 9/19/2014 2:43 pm : link
In comment 11871315 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
...tough throw and tough catch. You'd expect great players like Welker and Brady to hold up their end of the bargain, but when you consider they both had tough moves to make, it's no surprise it fell incomplete.

Yes, Welker getting his hands on it is a testament to his ability, but once he gets to that point and it hits him in the hands, he should come down with it.

Having said that, as mentioned earlier, Eli hit Manningham on an insane throw and catch (one that Manningham always struggled with - everyone would rip him for not getting that Toomer toe-tap down)... so WHO GIVES A SHIT! WE PULLED IT THROUGH! LET'S GO GIANTS SB XVLII CHAMPS!


Finally, someone is on my side with this. Thanks for backing me up. Also, it should be worth noting that Brady and Welker never really connected on that type of pass at all while they were both on the Patriots. So, as you said, it's not that surprising that the play resulted in an incompletion.
I'm glad you moved on with your life  
David in LA : 9/19/2014 2:46 pm : link
.
The OP really needed more parenthesis  
Mike in Long Beach : 9/19/2014 4:31 pm : link
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