NFT: DePodesta talks position players in Mets system

I think I read that his stats when compared to Rusney Castillo's and Jose Abreu's was average. The report I read - which I can't find - seemed to indicate that the cuban baseball league was equivalen to High A-Ball, and they were able to adjust numbers to MLB based on there performance in that league. According to the report before Jose Abreu's rookie season, they said he (abreu)would put up stats comparable to Miguel Cabrera. And that has ultimately been close to true. So, using the same methodology, i'm not sure Tomas would put up anywhere near the numbers that Abreu, Puig, or Cespedes has put up, so i'm not concerned about not signing him. It does bother me that the Wilpon's refuse to spend money. If they had money to spend, I would sign someone like James Shields to anchor the top of the rotation with harvey (because there are no great hitters on the market this year) and trade for a Bat in left field - I really like Jay Bruce as an option because he's coming off a down year, the Reds are not going anywhere soon, and they need pitching.

Bruce is basically Curtis Granderson this year, not sure what happened with him.. but I think he'd still cost a TON in a trade. He's still under contract at a bargain for 2 years with a team option that is still not bad at all. This year is probably more of an outlier for him than anything. He was excellent before this year, especially the 4 years prior.

He would never be able to handle NYC

Puello?

the tools match up. Hey, I'm all for Tomas but if Puello didn't even get a chance at AAA why would they spend so much money on someone similar?

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Most analysts are bullish on Abreu. On Davenport’s site, he projects .296/.391/.586, with 39 homers, 75 walks and 158 strikeouts. The Steamer projection at FanGraphs is only slightly less optimistic at .272/.363/.547, with 34 homers, 60 walks and 110 strikeouts in a bit less playing time (544 plate appearances at FanGraphs against something more than 592 at Davenport’s site, which doesn’t list sacrifice flies, hit-by-pitches or other small factors that go into plate appearances).

Abreu beats the projects, but they are not far off. Abreu had a 1262 OPS in CUBA in 2013, Tomas has a career 850 OPS, and had a 735 OPS in the first half of the 2014 season.

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http://www.suntimes.com/sports/25963033-574/its-hard-to-translate-cuban-statistics-but-jose-abreu-looks-good.html - ( New Window )

But he is 23. Abreu was 26 or 27 when he was signed. Also, given that he plays some CF, it stands to reason that he's not a horrid defender at the corner. Abreu is considered a future full time DH.

From what I've read, Tomas has a ton of raw power. he hasn't played his best ball yet. Abreu had been peaking already when he came over and still is. Tomas is only going to get better.

but I'm not willing to spend $100 million on someone who is going to put up Marlon Byrd numbers.

He has a higher power ceiling than Byrd and is way younger. I also don't think he's getting 20+ per.

There is a very good chance his numbers go up since he is only 23. And if he would max out at the current Marlon Byrd numbers, it is still worth it because that makes him a legitimate middle of the order bat.

So if a team gives Tomas $90-$100 million because he has power potential, that would make them less intelligent than the Mets? This is all about money.

Every GA you sign comes with a risk. Some here are talking about trading for Brice. He had an awful year, and won't come cheaply in a trade. Who is to say that Bruce's numbers do not begin declining now?

Sandy's MO has been not to get bogged down in long-term contracts, since it effects his flexibility. I think a cornerstone of the alderson regime's approach is - that if you're going to hand out money, hand it out to sure things.

Chris Young was not a sure thing - 1 year contract, neither was Frank Francisco - 2 year contract. Wright was a special circumstance and he was prett close to a sure thing to produce for at least half of his 8 year contract. Granderson had a very good track record and it wasn't backbreaking money.

If you're going to hand out $100 million, I don't think Alderson wants to do that with an individual with such a high risk of failure. We're not the Yankees or even the Dodgers and Angels.

How many bad contracts have we had over the last 10 years? Bay, Castillo, O.Perez, P.Martinez, J.Santana - that's a lot of sunk costs.

I could see the Mets begin to shore up some of their own players to longer term deals now, rather than letting them get to free agency and arbitration. Sign Wheeler, deGrom, d'Arnaud, Lagares to modest contracts, buying out there arbitration and early free agency ala Atlanta Braves style, rather than spending money on old free agents that will only produce in years 1-2 of a long term deal.

Ok, but Tomas is not old.

Just because past signings didn't work out shouldn't mean we just stop giving out anything but 1-2 year deals.

We have to improve this lineup. We can't just sit on it and expect pitching to carry us to a championship. There's a good chance Wright is really going to hit a decline now and we probably aren't going to get much better than we got this year from Granderson.

We need more hitting otherwise we're going to fall short.

If you didn't consider Granderson "backbreaking" money, why would Tomas be? He's probably not going to get much more per, just a couple more years.

We're going to have to spend money on SOMEONE. Every player is a risk somehow. There are really few "sure things".

100 million over say 7 years (14 million per season) is a bargain for post-Nats era Byrd. Byrd has put up about 2.5-3.0 WAR over the last seven seasons. That's not a bad return at all for that money. You'd love to have the next Puig or Abreu, but really I'd just hope that the next guy who gets Granderson/Bay type money per season does not hit like Granderson and Bay.

means we are screwed as fans. The amount of money should not be a concern for a team in NYC.

I also have a feeling Alderson's MO of avoiding long term deals is a mandate from ownership to not spend money. I am fairly certain Alderson would like to walk into a room sometime with some money to spend.

like a Big market team. Its time to sell

played 2014 with an arm issue, was in and out of the lineup. Silly to just look at stats with a Cuban player anyway. Again, Ben Badler is an AWESOME guy and "the guy" when it comes to internationals and he had a report when the Dodgers signed Puig about how much of a shocking overpay it was, how middling his "talent" was. Law said similar things. Tomas may be a total turd (because the flip side is, I know nothing about him either) but just prorating stats or going with "I heard..." is silly... in fact Abreu's bat speed was questioned as well...

i was thinking about Jay Bruce a lot. Big power potential who's having a down year and isnt a great defender either. I think you don't have to give up too much, say Montero+? But i'm not sure the reds would trade him when his value is this low.

I've resigned to the fact that the Mets are on a budget and dont have a lot of money to spend. This is the circumstance your in. Instead of complaining about it, you have to work with what you got. I think Alderson has done a good job with what's been going on. The team has a lot of young players knocking on the door to the MLB roster. Tomas makes too much sense in that it would only cost money and he's young enough to blossom into a power OF. If wright can bounce back to close to DW numbers and granderson just bounces back a little, the team isn't all that bad even with Flores at SS.

yeah last 2 seasons of Marlon Byrd (assuming he were 23-24 years old) he 1000% would be worth 7 years 100 million, in fact you likely got a steal. People need to readjust what they think is a lot or "too much". Solid regulars make 10+ nowadays, stars make 20, "franchise players" 25+

may shop Jennings, I'm not a massive fan and the two teams don't match up that well but worth mentioning. More realistic than guys like Calhoun and Marte.

Tomas's bat speed is a huge question mark and he is not even on the same planet as far as prospects like Abreu and Puig. There is certainly a risk.

both BA and Law scoffed at Puig's 42 million with BA essentially saying he's an average talent, BA also had scouts saying Abreu's bat speed was sub par.

In comment 11871172 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

yeah last 2 seasons of Marlon Byrd (assuming he were 23-24 years old) he 1000% would be worth 7 years 100 million, in fact you likely got a steal. People need to readjust what they think is a lot or "too much". Solid regulars make 10+ nowadays, stars make 20, "franchise players" 25+

This!! Thank you for saying this. A huge point I've been trying to make around here lately!

One executive called the deal "crazy." Several others were floored by the reported contract terms.

"I don't know," said one international director, echoing several of his colleagues. "I don't know what's going on in Dodger land. They must have seen something."

Those who have seen Puig seem lukewarm on his talent. He has good bat speed and generates plus raw power, but scouts have expressed concerns about his hitting approach. Some scouts say they have gotten some good running times on him before and he's shown more athleticism in the past, but others haven't seen him run well. He projects as a corner outfielder and has drawn question marks from scouts about his defensive instincts. He is an interesting prospect with raw talent, but for several teams, he wouldn't have even been a first-round pick if he were in the draft.


"Lukewarm on his talent" is RIDICULOUS. Say what you want about Puig but on a talent basis outside of Trout you'd have trouble finding someone who is clearly better.

"Wouldn't even be a first round pick"

LOLzZzZ

if we got a 24 year old Marlon Byrd for 7 years 100 and he produced like the last 2 years of Marlon Byrd we would all love him. I'm not knocking anyone but I really think at some point people stop paying attention to what guys get and think "100 million, that's a franchise player" or "10 million? That's an all-star". Let's put it this way, I like Daniel Murphy a whole lot but HE will be a 10+ million dollar player in 2016 and we can all agree he's a "good" player, not a star.

and I'm not even a scout but I can say "talent wise" can you really name anyone outside of trout who you can confidently say has more "talent" than Yasiel Puig? I know I can't.

Quote:

While Abreu dominated the Cuban league, scouts are mixed on whether his skill set will translate against major league pitching. At 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, he’s a righthanded hitter with plus-plus raw power who can hit soft stuff in the strike zone, but he has a tendency to chase hard breaking pitches off the plate. Some scouts are concerned about his bat speed and the way he cuts himself off with his swing, particularly coming off a World Baseball Classic in which he looked vulnerable against decent fastballs on the inner third. Some scouts said they would rather have Napoli than Abreu.

hmmmm lol

Yeah, that's why when I hear this "not enough bat speed" stuff about Tomas I just don't take it that seriously. We heard all this stuff already about Puig and Abreu. Even if Tomas isn't as good as those guys.. if he provides decent power and can adequately cover LF and gives us a legit upgrade over what we've had, it's well worth it to me.

Especially because it doesn't involve losing pieces in our system.

Like I said.. basically any option won't be a "sure thing". Take a shot on the guy who could really net you a big return.

Especially instead of the hot garbage we had in that slot all year.

Not sure 100M for Tomas is worth it, but I guess that depends on the market.

With 2 good looking OF prospects not too far off I don't know if it's worth paying the premium that usually comes with youth and upside. For example, I think Jose Bautista would be a great addition and have a Delgado-like affect on the entire lineup, and that move would make a lot of sense if it didn't cost a ton to get him since he's 34 years old. No idea if he'll be available, just using him as an example.

I think proven players who are "buy lows" like Bruce or CarGo are the most likely targets. Guys who have big upside, track record of success, contracts that aren't too cumbersome, but aren't at their peak value.

would be shocked if the Mets landed Jay Bruce. Makes no sense for the Reds to sell low and his contract is pretty awesome- 2 years 25.5, 3 years 37 if they pick up his option. He's always healthy, 2010-2013 a very good player. I doubt he's a realistic target.

year or not but last 5 seasons OPS+ of 114. Since 2010 (again including an AWFUL 2014) he's 42nd overall among OF's in baseball in wRC+ and pre-2014 he ranked 29th.

But the Mets do have some good pieces to dangle for the first time in a while. Murphy is a solid 2 war guy with some position flexibility. Gee & Niese both in the 1-2 war range with era's in the 3's since 2012. None have "bad" contracts. Obviously a host of prospects who can sweeten deals. Who knows if the value will match up, but I'd expect they'll have some decent options.

Eric, Gee has NEGATIVE WAR this year and the Reds have both a 3b and 2b in place. Teams very rarely "sell low" on proven offensive players going into their age 28 season with such an amazingly team friendly deal. Gee/Niese types don't get you in a Jay Bruce discussion, 1 down year or not. If he were owed major money or injury prone I could see it. No incentive to move him when his value is so low when he's going to be making below his market value. He's no doubt been awful this year but was worth 29.7 million 2012+2013.

2010-2013 14 WAR (3.5 per season). Unless the Reds suddenly think he's randomly "finished" at 28 years old I don't see any reason they would move him without the Mets giving a pretty big price.

remember, Murphy has only 1 year left so some of these deals where Murphy may or may not be a fair return aren't that realistic. I'd deal Murphy for Bruce in a millisecond but the Reds 1. Have no use for Murphy (nowhere for him to play) but 2. Aren't giving up 3 years of Bruce just for 1 of Murphy and then give a 4-5 year deal to retain him.

But if you look back at trades that have been done in past few offseasons, for the level of player that would make sense for the Mets, I think you'd find very few trades they couldn't match in value - and that's without adding Wheeler/Thor/JdG.

more first round draft picks would make it in baseball. It seems they are more wrong then they are right about projecting players. A scout says that Wilmer Flores is not a SS, we become convinced he is not a SS. Never mind we don't know the names of the people making the quotes, we don't have any idea what their track records are.Not one unnamed scout projected Lagares who came up as a SS to be a Gold Glove in center field. Bryce Harper is a very nice player, still
Very young, but I don't see the once in a generation player scouts have been touting him to be since he was 15.

In comment 11871270 DanMetroMan said:

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Teams very rarely "sell low" on proven offensive players going into their age 28 season with such an amazingly team friendly deal...

Thought you were talking about Gee for a second, then realized you said offensive players.

that the Reds would not sell Bruce when his value is this low. I mean he's the perfect candidate for it, but the Reds know that too. His contract, the seasons before this season, all points to him bouncing back next season. I think you would have to blow the Reds away for them to give him up.