Archived Thread

1st and 15 vs. 2nd and 10

St. Jimmy : 9/26/2014 11:35 am

Which do you think is a better situation for a defense to be in? I'm not talking about where a team is in fieldgoal range. Say the offense is at or near mid field and have 5 yard penalty on an incomplete pass like the screen with an illegal man downfield last night on the Redskins. For the past 30 years, I've been watching football it seems like push them back 5 yards was the answer but in todays NFL with the game set up for passing is that really the right answer anymore? What do you think?

Depends on the situation and the opponent

Mike in NY : 9/26/2014 11:41 am : link

Washington liked to run on early downs so by setting up 1st and 15 if they run and you hold them to less than 5 yards you are better than you had been otherwise. Also the location of the ball put them on the edge of FG range if they just missed a first down as I recall so by pushing it back it meant more yards before getting in range

I thought the same thing

bignygfan : 9/26/2014 12:08 pm : link

I think in today's NFL I'd take the loss of down.

my dumb answer is

ray in arlington : 9/26/2014 12:15 pm : link

the avg yds per play for an NFL team is about 5.

So on avg the 1st and 15 is roughly equivalent to the 2nd and 10.

I haven't been able to come up with actual data, however. I have seen research that said that 2nd and 5 is roughly equivalent to 1st and 10 in terms of first down conversion probability.

all things being equal

PaulBlakeTSU : 9/26/2014 12:20 pm : link

I'd rather my defense be on 2nd and 10 than 1st and 15 because it's one less chance for the offense to make a big play.