NFT: Fantasy football discussion - 9/29

and I'm not going to trade him as his capris at an all time low.

selling low, you need to wait for one big week and then decide if it's a change that's sustainable or if its a one-week anomaly.

ideally when you trade McCoy you get a Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, etc. back, now you're not getting that.

fuck fantasy football and fuck Eddie Lacy. Only my second year of fantasy and I already hate it as much as I thought I would, hence why I resisted so many years. You can say all you want how good management wins out, but it's really 75% luck. I'd rather put my money elsewhere.

I have Rivers and can play him every week with no dropoff. Desperately need WR help. Sanders is my only legit WR. Andre Johnson is basically putting up WR2/3 numbers and guys like Kendall Wright and Allan Robinson I can't really depend on. Justin Hunter still hasn't done a damn thing.

but no way it's 75%. I'd venture a guess your team has more problems than just Eddie Lacy, and he's just the easy scapegoat at the moment.

My team is solid, that's the thing that gets me. I posted my draft on a thread here and you guys were telling me it's almost unfair how good my team was.. 4 weeks later I'm 0-4. I've had a lot of little things impact my team and a lot of matchup problems.. Having to sit game-time decision guys because they play on Monday night, Asiata put up 27 against me yesterday. Come on! Things like that. Okay, probably not 75% luck, but it's still a good percentage of the game. I'm not really upset, just kind of sucks that the fantasy season is already over for me.

You gave me shit on the fan duel thread for starting McCoy in a one week, one dollar pool yet you drafted him for your season? Are you kidding me?

Wasted your first rd pick, damn, that sucks.

You don't say if it's PPR or not but judging by the overload of RBs, I'm assuming it's not,
I'd give you Vincent Jackson for McCoy...

This isn't real football.

My first year I won the league despite having an pretty meh team, especially at the end when injuries to my top 2 QB's forced me to start Tebow. That was lucky, no doubt.

Season 3 I had the most total points by more than 100 but missed the playoff because of some comically bad beats. Actually, I ended up finishing second last that year and 4 weeks in a row I had the second most weekly points but went 0-4. Bad luck.

So, yes, there are some fluke seasons each way - but drafting a disappointing RB that sucks for the first month is not nearly as unexpected as you seem to think. Each year about half the RB's taken in the top 20 seem to bust. Maybe not half, but close.

You do your research, play the percentages and hope you make some nice waiver wire pickups.

Playing guys like Eddie Royal and Roy Helu Jr, and winning make it fun. Anybody can draft the first 5 rounds, it's what you do in 6-20 that make or break you.

In comment 11889494 Andy in Halifax said:

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My first year I won the league despite having an pretty meh team, especially at the end when injuries to my top 2 QB's forced me to start Tebow. That was lucky, no doubt. Season 3 I had the most total points by more than 100 but missed the playoff because of some comically bad beats. Actually, I ended up finishing second last that year and 4 weeks in a row I had the second most weekly points but went 0-4. Bad luck. So, yes, there are some fluke seasons each way - but drafting a disappointing RB that sucks for the first month is not nearly as unexpected as you seem to think. Each year about half the RB's taken in the top 20 seem to bust. Maybe not half, but close.

I would think drafting RBs in round 1 mostly are busts. Look at this year. McCoy, Charles (injury), AP (suspension), Lacy, Forte, and Montee Ball were a consensus top 6 RBs or at the worst in the top 7-8 RBs. The 6 of them have combined for 3 TDs through 4 weeks. Matt Asiata had that alone yesterday.

Now if you got Murray, Lynch, or Bernard you are probably fine. But I drafted 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds, and my 3rd RB = Jennings has been by far the best. And the one I dfrafted in the next to last round, Ahmad Bradshaw has been better than McCoy/Foster.

I am really beginning to think of drafting RBs early are done. I have done it the last two years and it hasnt panned out. Drafting RBs to me is the luck part.

but you still have to draft a good team after that. And you still need to continually look for ways to improve your roster. Killing the draft means nothing once the season starts.

I never would have picked Lacy with a top 10 much less top 20 pick.

Stick with FF because it incorporates constant thought. Your brain will thank you later. Plus, it's fun.

Some weeks you win by .05, others you lose. No biggie.

.

drafting Luck certainly helped your fantasy team, he's been on fire!

With so few RBs getting exclusive work nowadays, it's just safer to go top WR as often the draft allows.

McCoy was a safe bet to get the most carries, Charles, Lacy, Ben Tate all dominant ball carriers, most other back fields are 2 or 3 headed. If you don't go RB early though, you have to make sure you're in a position to claim them as they become available...

?

...

and a Jamal Charles 30 yard game from being 0-4. None of my decisions have panned out for me. I think my team is good enough to win (at least not be 0-4) but when I start a guy he does shit and when I bench him he lights it up(Sproles). Yesterday I started Sammy Watkins and just to see Terrance Williams have an awesome game on my bench. Can be very frustrating.

I really regret drafting Kaepernick, he's been garbage. I'm gonna try to pick up Eli from the waiver wire but I expect somebody else will get him before I do (used my waiver position to replace Moreno).
As a matter of fact, I really regret drafting Graham with my first pick (I was 8th). He just really hasn't been worth it yet. Hell, I could be starting Marty B and have comparable results.

he was "exclusive" for all of 6 carries, though even then he was going to split time with West. Now he'll be splitting time with West and Crowell, at least for those 30 plays he gets on the field before he gets hurt again.

That's completely wrong.

Ben Tate wasn't splitting carries with anyone to start the season.

taking these RB's in the top half of the draft is a massive gamble. Sounds like a sure thing, but there are almost always busts.

I unluckily drew the 1st overall pick and whether I took McCoy or Charles, the result has been the same thus far.

Thankfully I went WR heavy after and Brown, Jeffrey, Benjamin, and Floyd are all carrying me to 2-2 and well within reach. Right now I need Sankey to finally get the start (not sure what else he needs to do) and get Ingram back.

I also took a flier on Seferani-Jenkins at TE since i'm derailed by injuries there. Had a solid game but more importantly, 7 targets.

but they were always going to get West in the mix. West played the 3rd series in the opener, which was before Tate got hurt.

I imagine that ideally they would have been trying to feature Tate and have him get a 70/30 split with West, only they apparently didn't get the memo that the guy can't stay on the field.

Great RB if he can stay healthy. But, the reason Tate was drafted so high in fantasy drafts because he was one of the few RBs projected to not be splitting carries with anyone. No Josh Gordon, Tate looked like a good bet to be the main cog in the Cleveland offense. I'm anticipating getting him back this week, can't be trusting Roy Helu every week...

the RB coach says when he's healthy, should be Sunday, Tate is the feature back.

West has been ok, but far from job-stealing good.

And the signed Tate to a big enough contract he'll play, when healthy.

Quote:

As impressive as the dynamic rookie duo has been, though, position coach Wilbert Montgomery expects Ben Tate to assume the starting role once the veteran returns from a sprained knee. "That's what we brought Tate here for, to be the starter," Montgomery explained, via the Akron Beacon Journal. "He's the No. 1 running back in this offense. Right now, you can say we miss him. We miss his experience. We miss his leadership with the group. Speaking from that standpoint, we'll be open arms and welcome to have Ben back into the fold."

I have Marty B on my bench, who's putting up some pretty good stats himself. And I need help at RB and QB. What could I expect to get in return for Graham?

But if Tate doesn't get hurt, nobody has heard of Crowell yet and West has a total of 20 carries on the season. Of course, Tate always gets hurt, damn shame...

you're going to need a much better backup plan than Helu for the rest of the year.

Tate was getting drafted way too high for my tastes. I was much happier taking a receiver like Roddy White or an RB like Jennings in that 4th/5th round zone

I have West as the handcuff and Jeremy Hill.

Helu worked out nicely in the blowout though, he's the pass catching back and he got 2 tackles after the picks! (1 pt PPR, 1 pt per tackle)

Last two week's have been atrocious efforts but their o-line has been hammered by injury. I'm going to assume that gets better.

Against Washington he sustained a concussion and of course 31 teams in the league would have kept him out but this is the Eagles staff we're talking about.

Yesterday was just a strange game - Eagles didnt really have possession because they kept scoring defensive/special teams TDs. I'm a lot more 'concerned' about Foles than I am about McCoy. Foles looked great against lousy defenses but going forward the Eagles face the varsity teams - I dont think he's up to the task.

Of course I have 'concerned' about Foles/McCoy because their mother fucking Eagles and their struggles are good for the GMen.

just like Antonio Brown did in week 1. Even if the Eagles did want to sneak him out there if he failed, he wouldn't have been allowed to with the new rules/test progressions.

I really need a TE and a better QB, but i'm willing to let it ride out a bit more since i'm not dead in the water.

1 team in my league made 3 trades last week, and he won each trade IMO because people panicked and gave away great players for short term gain.

Brandon Marshall netted Asiata + Donald Brown for example. While that will pay off for the next week or 2, I think its generally a bad trade for the person giving up Marshall (unless his ankle is mangled which I don't think it is).

and I need 9 points tonight from Gronkowski for my first win.

Meanwhile, this week I had Eli, Stafford, Martellus Bennett and the Texans DST sitting on my bench. This could/should have been a blowout for me. My opponent got 80% of his points from his 3 Cowboys.

In comment 11889644 UConn4523 said:

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just like Antonio Brown did in week 1. Even if the Eagles did want to sneak him out there if he failed, he wouldn't have been allowed to with the new rules/test progressions.

The point is that teams handle these issues differently. Some are more cautious than others. Eagles historically more cavalier with head injuries than other teams. Ultimately who knows, but at the very least McCoy missed a few series in that game due to the protocol... and never got back into the flow of the game.

Their o-line is a mess right now too, that certainly doesnt help the run game.

until proven otherwise. So much attention to the big WR's and Forte that he's always open.

McCoy looked a step slow to me yesterday. He was getting caught on plays he usually doesn't. I don't know if he's got something else nagging him but I wouldn't be surprised.

I hear you, just saying it also happened to A. Brown who missed 2 drives I believe.

But its mainly the O-Line. They get Johnson back this week so that will certainly help. I'd rather them be awful, but they seem to keep winning games which sucks in real life and also in fantasy since I get no McCoy benefit.

if Andrew Luck and Jimmy Graham hadn't carried me to three wins on their own. I thought my season was over when I accidentally took Stephen Jackson with the 6th pick because I had my sound down and wasn't alerted to my turn in the draft (d'oh!), and it probably is over once Luck isn't facing WNBA teams. I mean, look at this shit:

QB: Luck
WR: VJax, Wheaton, Desean Jackson (yeah you heard me!), Harry Douglas, Mohamed Sanu, Beckham
RB: Morris, Steven Jackson, McFadden
TE: Graham
K: Crosby
D: whomever

How can that team compete, you ask? In our league, QB's put up the most points by far because of 6 points per TD, and Graham at TE is routinely scoring more than all but the best RB's. I'm just hoping one of my bottom 4 receivers becomes a hot trading commodity at some point this year so I can get one more good RB.

I have Graham and Donnell, I hate wasting one of them on the bench when I could probably have a better player to contribute more often.

Luckily I have Murray, which makes McCoy's past 2 weeks not as damaging to me. I also have ellington and bradshaw as reserves behind them at rb.

Andre Johnson is a shell of his former self. And dont give me "QB play" - he's never had good QB play, Fitzpatrick can actually air it out a bit and its not impacting DeAndre Hopkins. There's just nothing elusive about AJ anymore. He's not an automatic start for me anymore, and he was my 5th round pick so this freakin' hurts.

Eric Decker - would appreciate a little more honesty from you about your ailments. I started Kerley yesterday and benched you because you were "limited". Fuck yourself.

Montee Ball - cant blame him so much as his o-line and lousy playcalling to date. Hopefully they reevaluated things during the bye week... schedule remains brutal as far as run defense all year though.

I will say that our league has 14 teams, each of which choose 3 keepers, so potentially the top 42 (!) players are off the board before the draft even begins. And we don't do the snake draft, so when you've got the 11th pick like me, you pick 11th every freaking round.

If my league wasn't full of idiots who do things like spend $45 of their $100 FA waiver on that RB from Baltimore after one week, I'd be getting creamed. Instead, I finish near the top every year and wind up with a shitty draft the next.

Andre Johnson is killing me, too. It's not that he doesn't get catches he just does not score TD's. If he'd just get into the endzone a few times, he'd put up enough points. I need a WR1 so bad.

ever caught TDs?

He really hasn't since he was in his prime.. and even then he never put up big TD numbers. It's hard to believe that a guy with five 100+ catch years, two 1,500+ yard years and seven 1,000+ years has never had season with double digit TD's. In fact, he only even hit 9 one time.

cashed in after Peyton, can't blame him 1 bit. But he's a borderline #2 WR who's more like a #4 WR in that horrific Jets offense.

Monte Ball...can't say i'm surprised. So obvious how much Peyton misses Moreno.

For years I've been accused of being a homer drafting and playing Giants. This year I've lost two games in one league because I didn't go with my gut and play Giants players. I benched Eli this last week and the Giants Defense which gave me a loss. My gut said we'd win, but I didn't expect good fantasy days. The fan in me wanted to play both...we saw what happened.

Conversely, it seems a lot of players on my team have played the Giants this year. Each time my instinct told me not to play them becaue I thought the Giants would stop them and each time I listened to the "Experts" advice, played the players and lost.

This has been a very frustrating FF season.

In comment 11889896 JOrthman said:

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For years I've been accused of being a homer drafting and playing Giants. This year I've lost two games in one league because I didn't go with my gut and play Giants players. I benched Eli this last week and the Giants Defense which gave me a loss. My gut said we'd win, but I didn't expect good fantasy days. The fan in me wanted to play both...we saw what happened. Conversely, it seems a lot of players on my team have played the Giants this year. Each time my instinct told me not to play them becaue I thought the Giants would stop them and each time I listened to the "Experts" advice, played the players and lost. This has been a very frustrating FF season.

In Week 1, I lost by 4 points because my opponent had Stafford and Megatron. Had the Giants played *ANY* defense that night, I would've won. Rubbed salt in the wound for sure.

averaging the 4th highest amount of points in the league yet i sit at 1-3..

3 out of the 4 weeks the team i have played has scored over 140 points...just getting crazy now...the guy i played this week scored 85 last week this scores 143 and still has edelman tonight...last week i scored 144 points and still lost..

but i guess thats life of fantasy

in my 10 team league dominating 3-0 going into tonight with a 21 point lead and they have vereen...i am averaging 140 points per game..

In comment 11889868 UConn4523 said:

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cashed in after Peyton, can't blame him 1 bit. But he's a borderline #2 WR who's more like a #4 WR in that horrific Jets offense.

Jets offense isn't quite that bad and even if it was, that provides opportunities for garbage time points. Decker's issue this year is his hamstrings. He was on his way to a big game in Green Bay before he got hurt, he had a decent opening day (6 catches, 77 yards i think) and got in the end zone again yesterday. He's a rock solid WR3 when healthy.

I have 2 good QBs in Matt Ryan/Rivers, have a nice rotation of WRs in Dez/Keenan/Roddy White/E Sanders, a legit RB1 in LeVeon Bell, and finally found a TE (hopefully) in Larry Donnell.

I'm still pretty iffy about Shane Vereen as my RB2 thus far. Hopefully he performs tonight.

Odell Beckham got dropped in my league. I won't put in a waiver, but I'll pick him up as a FA if available.

I have Julius Thomas and just scooped Donnell on waivers a few days ago... I'm thinking maybe I should dangle Thomas in a trade for a WR1. I'd love to move Brees instead and just roll with Rivers and do something like scoop Eli as a backup but I feel like no one is going to give up a good WR for Brees right now. Which is crazy to say, but..